Face in the Crowd (1 of ?)

[EagleFan]

Here's a twist on the I'm with Stupid, Guesstimates and Make Mine Rare contests that have become popular (mostly IWS for popularity) on the forum. There will be 5 questions that will require a numeric answer. The "correct" answer will be the median answer for each question. You're points will be calculated based on how far off you were from the median. The sum of those scores will be your final score.

Example:
Question 1 median 40, my guess 38, score for question 2.
Question 2 median 7, my guess 8, score 1.
Question 3 median 87, my guess 15, score 72.
Question 4 median 15, my guess 15, score 0.
Question 5 median 14, my guess 32, score 18.
Final score 2 + 1 + 72 + 0 + 18 = 93

PM me with your answers until 11:59 PM EST on Thursday the 14th.


Questions:
1. In your current, or most recent if not currently playing, FOF career, how many Super Bowls have you won?

2. Also in your current, or most recent, FOF career, how many #1 overall draft picks have you had?

3. How many seasons have you played in your current, or most recent, FOF career?

4. In your opinion, of all the players currently on an MLB 40 man roster, how many have used steroids in the past 5 years?

5. How many 1000 yard rushers will the NFL have next season?

[EagleFan]

bumping it back to page one. Received a couple entries so far.

[EagleFan]

rebump

[QuikSand]

A thought...

Under this scoring system, you are inherently making all the questions that are likely to have a wide spread of numbrs *far* more important than those which are more likely to be bunched together. Might be a bit of a problem, if you think it through.

Example:
Question A = how many TDs will Peyton manning throw next year?
Question B = how many NFL TDs will Ryan Leaf throw next year?

For A, you might have all sort of answers, with a median of, say, 40. If I submit a pretty good answer of 35... I end up with a "score" of 5 points for the round.

For B, you'll have lots of answer huddled right around the median - here I'd haxard the median will be 0. If I'm a total idiot, I might answer 3 for this, be a complete outlier buffoon, but I will have made a lower "score" (read: deduction) for this than I did in question A.


To take the extension further, what if you had asked -- "How many yards passing will Peyton manning have next year?" Include that on your list with the same scoring, and it's suddenly the only question that matters.

Some adjustment to put differently-scaled questions in context might be wise, perhaps for the next time, if the game takes off.

[EagleFan]

Advice from the local quiz-master is always a good thing.

Oh, and a bump along the way.

[EagleFan]

bump bnack to page one

[Daimyo]

Also seems vulnerable to abusrdly large answers... like if someone guessed there would be a million 1,000 yard rushers next year that would be worth a lot of pts. :)

[BrianD]

Also seems vulnerable to abusrdly large answers... like if someone guessed there would be a million 1,000 yard rushers next year that would be worth a lot of pts. :)

Lots of points would be a bad thing. Low score wins.

[Daimyo]

Didn't see that in the original post... nevermind then.

[EagleFan]

One last bump as time ticks away, under 5 hors left.

[EagleFan]

Results:
1. In your current, or most recent if not currently playing, FOF career, how many Super Bowls have you won? median: 3.5
2 - temley06 - 1.5
2 - sabotai - 1.5
3 - Masked - .5
4 - RendeR - .5
5 - BrianD - 1.5
31 - finkenst - 27.5


2. Also in your current, or most recent, FOF career, how many #1 overall draft picks have you had? median: 1
0 - temley06 - 1
0 - RendeR - 1
0 - sabotai - 1
2 - Masked - 1
3 - BrianD - 2
5 - finkenst - 4


3. How many seasons have you played in your current, or most recent, FOF career? median: 20
12 - temley06 - 8
14 - RendeR - 6
20 - sabotai - 0
20 - Masked - 0
20 - BrianD - 0
75 - finkenst - 55


4. In your opinion, of all the players currently on an MLB 40 man roster, how many have used steroids in the past 5 years? median: 20
3 - temley06 - 17
10 - sabotai - 10
20 - RendeR - 0
20 - Masked - 0
25 - BrianD - 5
250 - finkenst - 230


5. How many 1000 yard rushers will the NFL have next season? median 10.5
9 - temley06 - 1.5
10 - RendeR - .5
10 - BrianD - .5
11 - finkenst - .5
14 - sabotai - 3.5
16 - Masked - 5.5



Final Score:
finkenst 217
temley06 29
sabotai 16
BrianD 9
RendeR 8

and the face in the crowd is
Masked 7

[BrianD]

Out of curiosity, how would the results have changed if we'd used mean rather than median scores? Finkest seemed to use some pretty big answers, I'm curious what effect that would have if allowed to shift the target answer.

[General Mike]

I can't believe I missed this :(

[VPI97]

I can't believe I missed this :( Me too. I like the concept.