Interesting poker dilemma

[QuikSand]

Yes, yes - I know. Poker is getting tired around here. This isn't yet another bad beat story, but rather just an interesting conundrum I thought I'd share.


Setting: No-limit tournament, final table. Seven players are left. Payout will go to top four positions, in a 40-30-20-10% split. The 10% payout would be enough to make the few hours of investment worth the while.

Hero is the smallest stack at the table, with (very) approximately $7,000 in tournament chips. Of the seven remaining players, only two others are somewhat short-stacked - there is no overpowering chip leader. The blinds are $500-$1,000, and there is a $100 ante at this point. Blinds will double at the next round, not very far away.


Hero must post the $1,000 BB on this hand, moving the total pot to $2,200. First three players to act fold.

The cutoff (a player hero judges to be fairly poor, but who has a fairly large stack) raises to $4,000.

The button (a good player with a fairly short stack) moves all in for about $14,000.

The small blind (a so-so player with a short stack, who has made one questionable all-in call already, with K6s) calls the all-in for his remaining $10,000 or so.

Hero, on the big blind, amidst the suddenly invigorated table, looks at his hand: As Kh



Well, unlike many poker setups, at least this is not a nuanced question. Here, you have only two options:

- Push all-in
- Fold


What say you?

[flere-imsaho]

All-in. In the limited amount of time before you have to go all-in anyway, this is as good a hand as any to risk it on.

[timmynausea]

I call cause of the pot odds. For the smallest stack this is a dream chance to have a shot at winning it.

[QuikSand]

Oh, in case this affects anyone's thinking (after the hand, someone argued as much) -- I would also add that Hero was in the tournament by winning a satellite event, so his actual monetary investment was only a share of the actual buy-in.

[Bee]

fold

[TLK]

I say fold..... let them play against each other. It'd be different with AA or KK, but chances are someone is playing a pair. I'd be thinking I was going in an underdog, and toss the AK.

[primelord]

Any idea what the range of hands CO may be raising with are? I know you said he was a poor player, but is generally passive or aggressive pre-flop.

If the CO is aggressive and could be raising a wide range of hands here (which being that he was opening from the CO he should be raising a wide range of hands here) then I think this is an easy call. The Button is certainly raising a very wide range of hands with position and being short stacked. If he is a solid player then certainly he has you read for the same and probably figures he can get the pot heads up. And the SB ould be calling with anyone here.

If the CO is passive and is only going to raise with high pairs etc then you are better off folding and hope he picks off the other two for you.

[Radii]

I think you have to call here. If there were two big stacks going at it here then it might be different, but you have 1 big stack and 2 shorter stacks.

If the big stack wins, then yes, you are down to 5, but you now have under 6K in chips with the blinds about to increase to 1k/2K, and from your description it sounds like you would have to double up at least twice to have a shot at making the money.

If one of the smaller stacks wins, then you are down to 6, you are still critically short stacked at 6K or less, and you still have to double up to win.

Also, i would make the following observations. The big stack could be on any two. The good player could be on any pair or any ace. He still has 14 times the big blind but with the blinds going up he's getting ready to become very short stacked as well. Considering he acted right after the "fairly poor" cutoff, he was probably hoping to get heads up w/ the big stack with a hand he figures it likely to be ahead. This seems like it could be any pair, any ace, KQ, things like that, I'd be curious if you could put him on a range of hands here.

The SB could have anythign as well, of course you have to worry that someone has a pair here and that the others have some of your aces and kings taken out of the deck... but I just don't see any reasonable way to make the money after these 3 guys go all in together barring a miracle run of cards and luck combined. I think you have to call and hope to quadruple up.

[SirFozzie]

Depends on your goal.

What do you want more.. to cash.. or to risk it all for a chance to win.

You are on an approximate four to six outer here at best. (I assume, one guy has a PP, at least one of the others has a high K or A). You have pot odds, but you are at best in a race, and quite probably dominated (by KK/AA).

Fold.

[timmynausea]

I think you have to call here. If there were two big stacks going at it here then it might be different, but you have 1 big stack and 2 shorter stacks.

If the big stack wins, then yes, you are down to 5, but you now have under 6K in chips with the blinds about to increase to 1k/2K, and from your description it sounds like you would have to double up at least twice to have a shot at making the money.

If one of the smaller stacks wins, then you are down to 6, you are still critically short stacked at 6K or less, and you still have to double up to win.

Also, i would make the following observations. The big stack could be on any two. The good player could be on any pair or any ace. He still has 14 times the big blind but with the blinds going up he's getting ready to become very short stacked as well. Considering he acted right after the "fairly poor" cutoff, he was probably hoping to get heads up w/ the big stack with a hand he figures it likely to be ahead. This seems like it could be any pair, any ace, KQ, things like that, I'd be curious if you could put him on a range of hands here.

The SB could have anythign as well, of course you have to worry that someone has a pair here and that the others have some of your aces and kings taken out of the deck... but I just don't see any reasonable way to make the money after these 3 guys go all in together barring a miracle run of cards and luck combined. I think you have to call and hope to quadruple up.

That's pretty much exactly what I was thinking, but I didn't feel like typing for that long.

[rkmsuf]

you really have to call that based on the size of the pot. At worst it's a coin flip which makes it worth your while.

It also sounds like your investment was minimal and it would make sense to go for the win instead of limping along.

You might not get another chance so it would be a quick all in to me.

[BrianD]

Also, i would make the following observations. The big stack could be on any two. The good player could be on any pair or any ace. He still has 14 times the big blind but with the blinds going up he's getting ready to become very short stacked as well. Considering he acted right after the "fairly poor" cutoff, he was probably hoping to get heads up w/ the big stack with a hand he figures it likely to be ahead. This seems like it could be any pair, any ace, KQ, things like that, I'd be curious if you could put him on a range of hands here.


Sorry for the threadjack, but I'm curious...do you put the good player on any pair or ace because he is about to become short-stacked, or because any pair makes it worthwhile to go all in? I'm always amazed when I see people with 77 going all in. Is this really a wise move, or only at certain times?

[rkmsuf]

Sorry for the threadjack, but I'm curious...do you put the good player on any pair or ace because he is about to become short-stacked, or because any pair makes it worthwhile to go all in? I'm always amazed when I see people with 77 going all in. Is this really a wise move, or only at certain times?

very wise at times. not a hand you want 4 callers however. you'd really want to chase away action with a big wager and if called at worst go up against one set of overcards.

[SirFozzie]

I call it bubble fever.

When you get down to the money, people do one of two things.

1) Playing super passive, only playing mortal nut hands, in an attempt to make sure they cash.

2) Playing Super Aggressive, stealing left and right from people doing #1.

3) The problem is, when two players are doing step 2 above, then.. we have a pot. And usually someone going home.

The all-in thing is a scare. He's telling anybody near his stack. "You don't know what I have. I could be bluffing big time. Or I could have a real hand. If I have a real hand, you're in trouble. Even if I am semi-bluffing, I could outdraw you. Are you willing to put your tourney at risk by calling? Do you feel lucky, punk? Well, do you?"

The reason it works so often, is.. you have to do a cold read of your opponent. No cards on the board to help you read your opponent, or give you confidence in the cards in your hand.

And any two cards can beat any two cards.....

[rkmsuf]

I think it's very possible the Hero is actually ahead in the above example.

[SirFozzie]

I think it's very possible the Hero is actually ahead in the above example.

I don't. Not with 2 all ins before him and a third to act behind him. At least ONE if they're not criminally stupid (fairly high buyin, remember, the guy made his way here via winning a sattelite), has a PP.

[rkmsuf]

I don't. Not with 2 all ins before him and a third to act behind him. At least ONE if they're not criminally stupid (fairly high buyin, remember, the guy made his way here via winning a sattelite), has a PP.

either way it's a simple decision with only 6,000 left and 30K or so in the pot.

[Radii]

Sorry for the threadjack, but I'm curious...do you put the good player on any pair or ace because he is about to become short-stacked, or because any pair makes it worthwhile to go all in? I'm always amazed when I see people with 77 going all in. Is this really a wise move, or only at certain times?

14K seems like a pretty good point here to start trying to make a move. In position, behind a not so good player. He doesn't have enough chips to call and try to outplay his opponent post flop. If he's going to play he has to go all in. You really want to have enough chips to scare your opponents. If there is no dominant chipleader at the table, 14K might just be enough to scare other people off their hands. So yeah, you can go all in with 77 because of the combination of the 3 things below:

1) There is a chance that your opponent will fold.
2) If he calls, it is much more likely that you are at worst a coin flip than you are up against an overpair... if you're up against a higher pair, oh well, bad timing, better luck next time. But the sizes of everyone's stacks, your position, and the chance that you'll win the pot without a flop make it a good play to go all in with these pairs or decent aces in a lot of situations like the one QS posted here.

Look at it from the other player's perspective.

Say you are in the cutoff with A8. Not a bad hand, espicially to open-raise/try to steal the blinds with, so you raise to 4x the big blind. Your opponent on the button re-raises all in to 14K. Say you started the hand with 40K in chips(we, of course, have no idea what the other players had here). You're down to 36K if you fold, and all of a sudden A8 doesn't look so great. Even if you know your opponent is an agressive player, are you willing to commit more than 25% of your stack calling an all-in with it?

[SirFozzie]

either way it's a simple decision with only 6,000 left and 30K or so in the pot.

It's an easy decision knowing that you're about to bubble and you have at best six outs. FOLD.

Even after the SB, you'll have 5500. You're in no worse condition, and you will have the button helping you pick and chose a better time.

[rkmsuf]

It's an easy decision knowing that you're about to bubble and you have at best six outs. FOLD.

Even after the SB, you'll have 5500. You're in no worse condition, and you will have the button helping you pick and chose a better time.

It's not necessarily 6 outs.

problem is you have how many more hands? the winner of that pot has you over their knee.

taking a stand on 55-45 or something is worth it unless you want to limp into the money.

really hard to say without experiencing the pace of the game and such though.

[SirFozzie]

Outs Flop% Turn% Flop Odds Turn Odds Draw Type
2 8% 4% 12 22 Pocket Pair -> Set
3 13% 7% 7 14 Single Overcard Draw
4 17% 9% 5 10 Gut Shot, Two Pair -> Full House
5 20% 11% 4 8 One Pair -> Two Pair or Set, Gut+Backdoor
6 24% 13% 3.2 6.7 No Pair -> Pair, Two Overcard Draw
7 28% 15% 2.6 5.6 Set -> Full House or + (not counting extra turn outs)
8 32% 17% 2.2 4.7 Open Straight Draw
9 35% 19% 1.9 4.1 Flush Draw, Open+Backdoor Draw
10 42% 22% 1.6 3.6
11 42% 24% 1.4 3.2
12 45% 26% 1.2 2.8 Flush+Gut Draw
13 48% 28% 1.1 2.5
14 51% 30% 0.95 2.3
15 54% 33% 0.85 2.1 Flush+Open Draw
16 57% 34% 0.75 1.9 Flush+Open+One Overcard
17 60% 37% 0.66 1.7
[ The above chart represents your percentage and odds of hitting an out by the river ]

[rkmsuf]

Outs Flop% Turn% Flop Odds Turn Odds Draw Type
2 8% 4% 12 22 Pocket Pair -> Set
3 13% 7% 7 14 Single Overcard Draw
4 17% 9% 5 10 Gut Shot, Two Pair -> Full House
5 20% 11% 4 8 One Pair -> Two Pair or Set, Gut+Backdoor
6 24% 13% 3.2 6.7 No Pair -> Pair, Two Overcard Draw
7 28% 15% 2.6 5.6 Set -> Full House or + (not counting extra turn outs)
8 32% 17% 2.2 4.7 Open Straight Draw
9 35% 19% 1.9 4.1 Flush Draw, Open+Backdoor Draw
10 42% 22% 1.6 3.6
11 42% 24% 1.4 3.2
12 45% 26% 1.2 2.8 Flush+Gut Draw
13 48% 28% 1.1 2.5
14 51% 30% 0.95 2.3
15 54% 33% 0.85 2.1 Flush+Open Draw
16 57% 34% 0.75 1.9 Flush+Open+One Overcard
17 60% 37% 0.66 1.7
[ The above chart represents your percentage and odds of hitting an out by the river ]


What if the flop is J Q or 3 spades?

[dixieflatline]

I think this is a fold and I don't think it's close. Someone has a pocket pair and if others have an ace or a king your going to be a dog. That's best case BTW. With the flat payout I fold.

[SirFozzie]

Ok.. 4-6 outs, plus a four or five flush of spades on the board. MAYBE another out tops.

If you want to win, I can understand calling. But see this line:

Setting: No-limit tournament, final table. Seven players are left. Payout will go to top four positions, in a 40-30-20-10% split. The 10% payout would be enough to make the few hours of investment worth the while.

That's what I'm basing my decision on. At least one, and probably TWO people out on this one. You will either be the small blind or the button next hand (remember, the button is yet to act, and could be next out).. which means that just about everyone will play before you on the next few hands pre flop.

[QuikSand]

I agree that it's hard to have the complete picture, even with as complete a picture as I am able to describe. Being there makes a big difference.


WHAT REALLY HAPPENS:

Hero is, shockingly enough, me.

I don't have an expecially good read from anyone at the table beyond what I described above. The first raiser is not a great player, but is not a fool, nor is he a reckless player. So, I figure him for something. Actually, with three players all-in, I figures it's a serious longshot that there is no pair out there at all -- it's possible, but doesn't seem too unlikely. In any event, I'd almost certainly need to catch at least one of my six outs to win, and it seems very likely to me that at least one or two of those outs are already dead. Even if I set aside the notion that I might be up against AA or KK, it seems to me that I'm not a terribly likely winner here. In essence, my thinking lies with Sir Fozzie here, and I muck the hand.


The first raiser calls the all-in bet. All three players reveal their hands:

Cutoff: J J
Button: A K clubs
Small Blind: A K diamonds

The board brings, predictably, no help for anyone, and the jacks hold up to eliminate two players.


Shortly thereafter, the five-player table cuts a deal to guarantee a money payout to fifth place (at the expense of the top two finishers). Hero, on the small stack, is utterly delighted to see this turn of events.

Not too long afterward, Hero is pushed by small blind (who had the JJ hand earlier), pushes all-in with AJo, and gets called by KQ. Queen hits the river, and hero accepts fifth place payout.

[primelord]

you really have to call that based on the size of the pot. At worst it's a coin flip which makes it worth your while.
In haven't made it down through all the replies yet so this may have already been covered, but this is not a "coin flip" situation. The flop is likely going to be 4 ways if hero calls and it's very likely some of your A and K outs are in one or more of those 3 other hands. So if you are behind to a pocket pair you are behind by quite a bit more than a coin flip.

[timmynausea]

I agree that it's hard to have the complete picture, even with as complete a picture as I am able to describe. Being there makes a big difference.


WHAT REALLY HAPPENS:

Hero is, shockingly enough, me.

I don't have an expecially good read from anyone at the table beyond what I described above. The first raiser is not a great player, but is not a fool, nor is he a reckless player. So, I figure him for something. Actually, with three players all-in, I figures it's a serious longshot that there is no pair out there at all -- it's possible, but doesn't seem too unlikely. In any event, I'd almost certainly need to catch at least one of my six outs to win, and it seems very likely to me that at least one or two of those outs are already dead. Even if I set aside the notion that I might be up against AA or KK, it seems to me that I'm not a terribly likely winner here. In essence, my thinking lies with Sir Fozzie here, and I muck the hand.


The first raiser calls the all-in bet. All three players reveal their hands:

Cutoff: J J
Button: A K clubs
Small Blind: A K diamonds

The board brings, predictably, no help for anyone, and the jacks hold up to eliminate two players.


Shortly thereafter, the five-player table cuts a deal to guarantee a money payout to fifth place (at the expense of the top two finishers). Hero, on the small stack, is utterly delighted to see this turn of events.

Not too long afterward, Hero is pushed by small blind (who had the JJ hand earlier), pushes all-in with AJo, and gets called by KQ. Queen hits the river, and hero accepts fifth place payout.


It's kind of funny because what really happened illustrated the flaws in both strategies. (Not that they aren't obvious, anyway.) You would've lost the hand, but had there not been a deal you still would've finished out of the cash. (Assuming you still go all in with AJ.)

[QuikSand]

In haven't made it down through all the replies yet so this may have already been covered, but this is not a "coin flip" situation. The flop is likely going to be 4 ways if hero calls and it's very likely some of your A and K outs are in one or more of those 3 other hands. So if you are behind to a pocket pair you are behind by quite a bit more than a coin flip.

If, for instance, I am up against two guys with lower aces than me, and one guy with a pair (a fairly likely scenario, in my book) then I only have about a 25% chance of winning the pot. The odds are a lot less than one might think. Multi-way action is not good for a hand like AKo... it's a far stronger hand heads-up.

There was about 30 minutes of open debate around the table about that fold.

[RPI-Fan]

What's with all this "you have to call" or "this is a must-fold" talk?

Obviously, you don't <i>have</i> to do anything.

[timmynausea]

If, for instance, I am up against two guys with lower aces than me, and one guy with a pair (a fairly likely scenario, in my book) then I only have about a 25% chance of winning the pot. The odds are a lot less than one might think. Multi-way action is not good for a hand like AKo... it's a far stronger hand heads-up.

There was about 30 minutes of open debate around the table about that fold.
If you're looking at quadrupling up, though, you only need to win a little more than 25% of the time for it to be a profitable move over time, though, right?

[rkmsuf]

What's with all this "you have to call" or "this is a must-fold" talk?

Obviously, you don't <i>have</i> to do anything.

So how long do you just sit there before someone either punches you in the face or everyone leaves?

[QuikSand]

It's kind of funny because what really happened illustrated the flaws in both strategies. (Not that they aren't obvious, anyway.) You would've lost the hand, but had there not been a deal you still would've finished out of the cash. (Assuming you still go all in with AJ.)

I disagree.

First of all, the decision was either right or wrong based on the situation as it was set up, not based on what actually happened. If I held pocket 3s it would be correct to fold, even if in retrospect there were two 3s on the flop.

I also changed my game pretty dramatically after we cut the deal for 5th place. Since I was no longer right at a "cliff" I loosened up, actually stole the blinds with an empty all-in, and had enough momentum to make my push with the AJ. But given the circumstances, I would have pushed the AJ anyway -- and it was the right play, regardless of hiw it happened to turn out.


I don't think you can look at the actual outcome of one trial, and use that as the only emasure of what was the right decision at the time. I think my fold of AK was correct, I think my push of AJ was correct, and the fact that I failed to really make the money spots plays no role in that.

[rkmsuf]

If, for instance, I am up against two guys with lower aces than me, and one guy with a pair (a fairly likely scenario, in my book) then I only have about a 25% chance of winning the pot. The odds are a lot less than one might think. Multi-way action is not good for a hand like AKo... it's a far stronger hand heads-up.

There was about 30 minutes of open debate around the table about that fold.


well you are 3-1 then to win the pot. you are getting around 6-1 on your money if it ends up around 40K or so.

Helmuth says call.

[QuikSand]

If you're looking at quadrupling up, though, you only need to win a little more than 25% of the time for it to be a profitable move over time, though, right?

This isn't a cash game. It's a freeze-out tournament. The value of tournament chips is FAR from being constant.

[QuikSand]

well you are 3-1 then to win the pot. you are getting around 6-1 on your money if it ends up around 40K or so.

Helmuth says call.

This isn't cash. It's about order of finish. I have a chance to move one spot away from the money, by laying down a hand that has a pretty modest chance to win.

I understand pot odds. There's more to this situation than the ability to gain chips.

And remember, the most I can win from this pot is 3X my entire stack. The rest would go to someone in the varous side pots, even if I ended up with the best hand.

[rkmsuf]

This isn't cash. It's about order of finish. I have a chance to move one spot away from the money, by laying down a hand that has a pretty modest chance to win.

I understand pot odds. There's more to this situation than the ability to gain chips.

And remember, the most I can win from this pot is 3X my entire stack. The rest would go to someone in the varous side pots, even if I ended up with the best hand.

I hate AK anyway. Never win with that hand. Two jacksasses last week stayed in with Q high against mine all in and a Q hit the board.

[timmynausea]

This isn't a cash game. It's a freeze-out tournament. The value of tournament chips is FAR from being constant.
True. And I wouldn't make the call if I had a medium stack, maybe 10x the big blind or more. I think when you're that short-stacked, though, you're making a stand in the next 10 hands or so. I can imagine myself folding depending on the players in the hand and so on, but I think from the way you described I might have to call.

[Subby]

Would people's thinking changed had the AK been suited? I tend to get more aggressive with big suited connectors, even though I am not sure they improve my chances all that much...

[Maple Leafs]

I understand pot odds. There's more to this situation than the ability to gain chips.As someone who's new to the game, understands (and uses) pot odds, and plays mostly tournament style, this line of thinking is new to me. Any chance you can give a brief summary of how you approach tournaments differently?

What if it's a smaller one or two-table game but with tournament rules (i.e. lose your chips and you're done)?

[SirFozzie]

agreed. It's risking 6000 chips to win 21K. 3.5 to 1. So I did what Quick suggested:

Ran his hand (As Kh) vs 3 other hands.

(assuming, two loose players)

vs Ah 10d vs 7c 7h vs Ad Qs

here's the break down

77 wins 39.3 %
Hero wins 25.8%
AQ wins 18.9%
A10 wins 16.0%

so you have slightly better then a 1 in 4 chance to win, with pot odds of 3.5. Hellmuth would say fold

[QuikSand]

Would people's thinking changed had the AK been suited? I tend to get more aggressive with big suited connectors, even though I am not sure they improve my chances all that much...

I would have had to think harder about the fold were I suited. The flush option makes a bigger difference multi-way, of course. But I think I'd still fold it there.

[SirFozzie]

Would people's thinking changed had the AK been suited? I tend to get more aggressive with big suited connectors, even though I am not sure they improve my chances all that much...

Ran my test again replacing Hero's hand with AKs:

Hero's up to 30%.. so with 3.5 to 1 pot odds, and win one in 3.3333(repeating), I guess it would be a marginal call

[primelord]

so you have slightly better then a 1 in 4 chance to win, with pot odds of 3.5. Hellmuth would say fold
For the sake of being mathmatically correct having 1 in 4 chances to win translates to 3:1 against improving. The pot odds alone say to call, but as Quik pointed out the pot odds really aren't the deciding factor here.

[SirFozzie]

For the sake of being mathmatically correct having 1 in 4 chances to win translates to 3:1 against improving. The pot odds alone say to call, but as Quik pointed out the pot odds really aren't the deciding factor here.

True, but this is assuming a very generous board (AQ maybe, but A10?). This is really a best case scenario).

A really interesting hand.

[primelord]

True, but this is assuming a very generous board (AQ maybe, but A10?). This is really a best case scenario).

A really interesting hand.
Yes, but in the example you gave:

77 wins 39.3 %
Hero wins 25.8%
AQ wins 18.9%
A10 wins 16.0%

If the pot is laying you 3.5 to 1 you are getting the correct odds to call. I just don't want anyone who is still learning about the concepts of pot odds to misunderstand and think when you have 1 in 4 chances to win you need 4:1 to call. That's what it sounded like you were saying in your post.

[QuikSand]

As someone who's new to the game, understands (and uses) pot odds, and plays mostly tournament style, this line of thinking is new to me. Any chance you can give a brief summary of how you approach tournaments differently?

What if it's a smaller one or two-table game but with tournament rules (i.e. lose your chips and you're done)?


In short, if you're playing for cash, you can safely say that the value of each chip is the same. Bet $100 with a 51% chance of doubling it? Go for it, it's a positive expectation wager for you. Everybody understands that.

in a tournament, things are different. Having more chips is good, but their value does not grow in the same increment with each chip. On the first hand of a tournament, would you risk all your chips with a 51% chance to double your stack? You ought to answer no, since you (as a practial matter) don't really double your chance of winning (or more specifically, double your expected return fro the event) by doubling your chip count -- but you certainly set your chance to zero by losing all your chips. (There is some mathematical debate about this, but most would agree with it as a matter of practicality)


So, with that, you then add in the fact that tournaments are about surviving as much as winning. When you get closer to the payouts (or to the meaningful payouts, if you want to get technical about it), it becomes increasingly important to stay alive. Doubling up is nice, increasing your chip stack is nice, but if you are in danger of losing it all, the last thing you want to do is take unnecessary chances and finish a few spots below the (meaningful) payouts. It's at this point where, at least to you as a fairly short stack, that the value of a few extra chips is getting very small indeed. Sure, if doubling up means you can make it through another round of blinds, that's fine.


In a tournament, the value of additional chips declines fairly rapidly with the number you have. There's no magic formula - it varies based on where you are in the scheme of the event and the payouts. But since survival is the underlying driving force in a tournament, it's fundamentally different than playing for cash.

[Glengoyne]

I think Hero's decision comes down to what he really wants. If he wants to have a shot at glory, then he calls. I think he probably has a 25%-30%(Wild Ass Guess) or so shot of winning the hand. If Hero wants to extend his stay long enough to reach the cash, then a case could be made for folding. Like someone above mentioned there is a case to be made for avoiding the carnage resulting from this hand, and maybe being one of the four or five players left standing. Of course being left standing without much of a stake, isn't all that great a place to be.

I think I'd fold this hand and hope to make my stand hopefully one-on-one with someone later. Even if my hand isn't as good, I might have a better shot at winning.


EDit: Damn the DNS error that delayed this message, until the end was revealed.

[judicial clerk]

If, for instance, I am up against two guys with lower aces than me,

What do you mean by "lower aces". Do you mean that their kickers are probably lower than your King?

[sabotai]

What do you mean by "lower aces". Do you mean that their kickers are probably lower than your King?

Yes, that's what he meant (having a lower second card).

[Maple Leafs]

In a tournament, the value of additional chips declines fairly rapidly with the number you have. There's no magic formula - it varies based on where you are in the scheme of the event and the payouts. But since survival is the underlying driving force in a tournament, it's fundamentally different than playing for cash.
Makes sense. But what about a smaller tournament-style game (let's say eight players) with only one payout to the winner?

[QuikSand]

Makes sense. But what about a smaller tournament-style game (let's say eight players) with only one payout to the winner?

Not as pronounced an effect, but still meaningful. Same general concepts apply, but obviously there's only one "cliff" where your decision-making is affected. Still, you have to be in the ifnal three if you want to win, and it's very easy to overestimate the value of having the biggest chip stack halfway through any tournament.

[Maple Leafs]

Interesting. I notice that whenever I'm in a small, winner-take-all tournament I find myself playing tight, making the final three or four, and going up against a big stack or two. And inevitably I walk away feeling like I was a total non-factor in the game, wishing I'd taken a chance or two earlier on.

(Of course, maybe I'm just no good at playing short-handed against bigger stacks.)

[Ironhead]

Not related to the thread but just something interesting that I heard on NPR tonight. They were doing an interview with a professional gambler and they were discussing poker winnings from all of these online sites. He said that now more than ever there is a trail of people's gambling winnings and that that you never know what information the IRS might have on you. Just something to think about when you are doing your taxes.

[rkmsuf]

so you have slightly better then a 1 in 4 chance to win, with pot odds of 3.5. Hellmuth would say fold

Ah but Helmuth's mind games would make up for any deficiant odds.

And his tirade after would make the whole thing well worth it.