View Full Version : NFL Over Under WINS help me pick
Lathum
08-22-2005, 11:00 PM
OK, for a few years I have been wanting to do a 4 way parlay on 4 teams win total for the NFL season. For those of you who don't know what that is, it is a bet where you take 4 teams and bet that they are going to have more or less wins then the posted number. All 4 teams would have to win on their selection to win the bet.
I decided it would be fun to enlist everyone's help and keep track through the season. Below I am going to post all teams win total number. All I ask is that you select 4 teams and weather or not you think they will win more then the number or less. If I get enough participation I will take the 4 most popular selections for a $100 bet.
You may notice not every team is there, the reason is if a team has a big issue such as the Giants with Mannings elbow then they won't be listed.
Arizona Cardinals 7.5 wins
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 wins
Baltimore Ravens 9.5 wins
Buffalo Bills 8.5 wins
Carolina Panthers 9.5 wins
Chicago Bears 6.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals 7.5 wins
Cleveland Browns 4.5 wins
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 wins
Denver Broncos 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions Over 8.5 wins
Green Bay Packers 7.5 wins
Houston Texans 7.5 wins
Indianapolis Colts 11.5 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs Over 8.5 wins
Minnesota Vikings 9.5 wins
New England Patriots 10.5 wins
New Orleans Saints 7.5 wins
New York Jets Over 9.5 wins
Oakland Raiders Over 7.5 wins
Philadelphia Eagles Over 11.5 wins
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 wins
St. Louis Rams 8.5 wins
San Diego Chargers 8 wins
San Francisco 49ers 4.5 wins
Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 wins
Tennessee Titans 6.5 wins
Washington Redskins 7.5 wins
Lathum
08-22-2005, 11:02 PM
So for example mine would be
Saints over 7.5
Bears under 6.5
Chiefs over 8.5
Chargers over 8
sabotai
08-22-2005, 11:09 PM
Arizona under 7.5 wins
Tampa Bay over 6.5 wins
Houston over 7.5 wins
Jacksonville under 8.5 wins
JeeberD
08-22-2005, 11:10 PM
Lions under 8.5
49ers under 4.5
Patriots over 10.5
Vikings over 9.5
cthomer5000
08-22-2005, 11:11 PM
The ones i immediately like are Patriots over and 49ers under (i see no reason they wont be HORRIBLE again).
stevew
08-22-2005, 11:11 PM
I'd take the Over on the Browns, Niners, Patriots, and the Packers.
Its hard to go through a whole season and only win 4 games, even if the Browns and Niners both arent great, i think they can limp to 5 wins, just by dumb luck. The Browns lost 3 games last year by a FG, meaning they could have easily gone 7-9. I cant forsee the Pats only winning 10 games or less, they havent changed all that much from last year, I'd say they win 12 or 13 at least. The Packers might be on a down year, its just hard to think that Favre will only lead them to 7 victories this year, they have won 8 or more games a year from '92 on.
I'd also consider taking the Titans for under, since they gutted their team, it may be hard for them to get to 7 wins.
stevew
08-22-2005, 11:15 PM
Nevermind, the Under on the Niners, only 2 games look like they reasonably have a shot at winning.
Fonzie
08-22-2005, 11:18 PM
Patriots over 10.5
49ers under 4.5
Lions under 8.5
Packers over 7.5
vtbub
08-22-2005, 11:31 PM
Philly under 11.5
Niners under 4.5
Patriots over 10.5
Bills over 8.5
Swaggs
08-22-2005, 11:32 PM
Buffalo Bills under 8.5 wins -- Growing pains with an inexperienced QB and in a pretty tough division.
Detroit Lions under 8.5 wins -- I don't trust the Lions to win anywhere near this many games.
Oakland Raiders over 7.5 wins -- Should have a powerhouse offense and play in a relatively unimpressive division.
St. Louis Rams over 8.5 wins -- I think this is the season that Bulger stays healthy and has a big year.
Lathum
08-22-2005, 11:34 PM
good stuff guys, keep it up!!
Lathum
08-22-2005, 11:36 PM
BTW a $100 will pay roughly $1000
don't fuck it up :)
timmynausea
08-23-2005, 12:09 AM
Rams over 8.5 - They supposedly play the easiest schedule in the league this year.
Arizona under 7.5 - When was the last time they won over 7.5?
49ers under 4.5 - Horrid.
Bears under 6.5 - No QB.
kingfc22
08-23-2005, 01:38 AM
Bears under
Bills under
Panthers over
Seahawks over
kingfc22
08-23-2005, 01:40 AM
Lathum - where are you placing your bet? Are you using an online site?
korme
08-23-2005, 01:46 AM
BENGALS OVER - that's no homer bet, 7.5... wow their line should be 9.5
CHIEFS OVER
TITANS UNDER
COWBOYS UNDER
timmynausea
08-23-2005, 01:46 AM
I think the Bengals will be over 7.5, but I also don't feel as confident in that as I do in a few others.
csridgway
08-23-2005, 02:22 AM
San Diego over
Detroit under
Chicago under
New England over
Nwobhm
08-23-2005, 03:18 AM
I took the raiders under 8 down in vegas last week myself, and am considering taking the 'skins under 7.5 as well.
rkmsuf
08-23-2005, 08:42 AM
Redskins under
Oakland under
Pittsburgh over
Jacksonville under
Lathum
08-23-2005, 08:50 AM
Lathum - where are you placing your bet? Are you using an online site?
yeas, I use sportsinteraction, however, they don't have these lines posted yet. I got these lines from a vegas sportsbook site
PackerFanatic
08-23-2005, 08:50 AM
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 7.5 wins
Green Bay Packers OVER 7.5 wins
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 11.5 wins
San Diego Chargers OVER 8 wins
BrianD
08-23-2005, 09:00 AM
Arizona under 7.5 wins
Green Bay over 7.5 wins
New England over 10.5 wins
San Fran under 4.5 wins
albionmoonlight
08-23-2005, 09:02 AM
Atlanta Falcons UNDER 9.5 wins
Baltimore Ravens UNDER 9.5 wins
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 11.5 wins
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 9.5 wins
(I also see New Orleans Saints OVER 7.5 wins, but that is through the rose colored glasses of a fan, so not very reliable).
digamma
08-23-2005, 09:08 AM
History says Falcons Under. They had a winning season last year and that's never happened twice in a row.
Huckleberry
08-23-2005, 09:14 AM
Hmm. That adds up to 247.5 wins. That means the Giants and Dolphins have only 8.5 wins between them in this setup.
Mustang
08-23-2005, 09:21 AM
Carolina OVER
Chicago UNDER
Minnesota OVER
Oakland OVER
Green Bay - PASS
As a Packer fan, I'd stay the hell away from that number. Too many injuries right now, unsettled O-line, No TE, bad secondary.. head says under 7.5 but, Favre has looked sharp so far and they haven't had less than 8 wins under Favre so.. history says over 7.5.. Favre goes out, this is a 3 or 4 win team...
Tigercat
08-23-2005, 11:16 AM
Only a few unders really stick out to me.
Arizona UNDER (bad teams that are expected to be the cinderellas are the ones that fail to do so. This isn't a 8+ win team in terms of talent.)
Philly UNDER (11.5 is just way too high)
Jax UNDER (Offense has talent, but playcalling will be quite bad, and Taylor is a big ? )
Bills UNDER (That division with basically a rookie QB? no thanks. )
RPI-Fan
08-23-2005, 11:54 AM
Houston Texans 7.5 wins - OVER
Oakland Raiders 7.5 wins - UNDER
San Diego Chargers 8 wins - OVER
Minnesota Vikings 9.5 wins - UNDER
Radii
08-23-2005, 12:01 PM
Arizona UNDER
Houston OVER
Cinci OVER
Philly UNDER
I really want to go with Carolina OVER but its too much of a homer pick.
sabotai
08-23-2005, 02:53 PM
I wouldn't touch the 4.5 bets. In this league, you can stumble over yourself and land 5 wins due to parity. 4.5 is too low for any team, even the 49ers.
I also wouldn't touch the San Diego bet since you're reduced to 7 and under and 9 and over. Neither an over or under wins if they get 8 wins which reduces your chances of winning with either bet.
Lathum
08-23-2005, 07:00 PM
Thanks for all the input, keep it coming !!
so far there are 2 run away choices
SF -4.5
NE +10.5
bump for the night people.
after examining, my top play would be PITTSBURGH over 9.5. They went 15-1 with a rookie QB last year, who is sure to be even better this season. They also return many of the players on the #1 defense in the league.
I also like Carolina over 9.5, if they can stay healthy this season they are my pick (like most everyone else's) to take the NFC. Also, the Bucs are worth a look at over 6.5. A lot of close losses last season, and despite a 5-11 record, they were outscored only 304-301, with the #5 D.
one more thing-- Denver was the only team last season to finish top 5 in both offense and defense, so they're worth a look at 8.5. Although they play in one of the toughest divisions in the league.
robbgmaier
08-25-2005, 12:01 PM
Green Bay 7.5 (OVER)
Oakland 7.5 (UNDER)
Pittsburgh 9.5 (OVER)
Chicago 6.5 (UNDER)
TroyF
08-25-2005, 12:26 PM
Denver 8.5 - Over. They always win 9 or 10. I see no reason they won't do that again this year.
Rams 8.5 - Over. Tougher division this year, but they should be good for 9 wins.
Niners 4.5 - Under. If that O-Line doesn't improve, they'll be lucky to win 2.
Ravens 9.5 - Under. Risky pick as they have the leagues best overall D and some decent offensive talent. But I can't see Kyle Boller leading them to 10 wins. i think they'll have some injuries this year.
jetpunk2000
08-25-2005, 12:48 PM
Bengals OVER
Browns OVER
Indy UNDER
Steelers OVER
albionmoonlight
08-25-2005, 12:49 PM
Bengals OVER
Browns OVER
. . .
Steelers OVER
You must not think much of the Ravens
jetpunk2000
08-25-2005, 12:56 PM
You must not think much of the Ravens
Hehe...not true. But I think the #'s are low for all 3 of those teams. It'd not inconceivable for that division to look something like this:
Pitt 11-5
Balt 10-6
Cincy 9-7
Clev 6-10
The Browns have a tough sched, but I think Romeo will have a big influence. Call it a hunch.
Raven
08-25-2005, 01:04 PM
Philly UNDER 11.5 (nO way do I see them winning 12+ games with that offense)
Bengals OVER 7.5 (A .500 finish should be no problem for them this year. )
Indianapolis UNDER 11.5 (I could see them winning 10 or 11, not 12 though)
Titans UNDER 6.5 (5 or 6 wins is perfect for them)
sabotai
08-25-2005, 02:42 PM
Also, the Bucs are worth a look at over 6.5. A lot of close losses last season, and despite a 5-11 record, they were outscored only 304-301, with the #5 D.
I think TB over 6.5 is the safest pick of all of these. It would take total collapse of the team for them not to win at least 7 this year. Most of their loses were close games and they did beat Atlanta and KC last year, so you know they can hang with some of the better teams in the league.
Blackadar
08-25-2005, 02:56 PM
Here are my locks. :)
Steelers OVER 9.5 (think they'll go from 15 wins to under 10?)
Bills UNDER 8.5 (tough division - NE, NYJ, better Miami team and a new QB)
Green Bay OVER 7.5 (Farve with a losing record?)
The 4th one is a bit tougher.
I like Cincy to be OVER 7.5 wins
I like Tampa to be OVER 6.5 wins
I like Carolina to be OVER 9.5 wins
I like Jacksonville to be UNDER 8.5 wins
I like Atlanta to be UNDER 9.5 wins
but I'd have to go with...
Philly UNDER 11.5 wins (don't think their Offense is good enough for 12 wins).
rkmsuf
08-25-2005, 02:58 PM
I can't fathom the Bills going 9-7.
jetpunk2000
08-25-2005, 05:40 PM
I can't fathom the Bills going 9-7.
Well, they did last year. It all depends on Losman. The D is going to be top 5. I would love it if they didn't come close to 9-7, but I wouldn't be shocked if they finished with 9 or above.
saldana
08-25-2005, 06:07 PM
i will go with:
bears under
browns under
niners under (as i run a samuri sword through myself)
packers over
and tails will be the coin toss on opening night...not like you would ever bet on the coin toss or anything like that....or wnba basketball games(and then watch said game on the Oxygen network) :D
Coffee Warlord
08-25-2005, 06:11 PM
San Diego OVER
Philly UNDER
Vikings UNDER
Cinci OVER
digamma
12-27-2005, 10:40 AM
Interesting bump.
Nice work albion and Coffee.
TroyF
12-27-2005, 11:07 AM
I got three of the four right. Damned Rams. :)
JeeberD
12-27-2005, 11:13 AM
Two of mine are locks and I just need the Pats to win to make it three out of four. Stinkin' Vikes screwed me though...
Lathum
12-27-2005, 11:08 PM
i was just about to bump this
Nwobhm
12-28-2005, 04:01 AM
My raiders under 8 came through. I seem to do a lot better on these futures bets than individual games, maybe i'll just stick with them. I'm in at +189 on the colts to win the superbowl as well.
Coffee Warlord
12-28-2005, 08:35 AM
Damn, I coulda cashed in on this one.
Radii
12-28-2005, 10:09 AM
look at all of those Houston over(oops, I did that one) and Chicago under picks.
cthomer5000
12-28-2005, 11:21 AM
The ones i immediately like are Patriots over and 49ers under (i see no reason they wont be HORRIBLE again).
I nailed SF, and a New England win would give me that one as well. Wish i'd laid down some money on these.
Raven
12-28-2005, 01:33 PM
Philly UNDER 11.5 (nO way do I see them winning 12+ games with that offense)
Bengals OVER 7.5 (A .500 finish should be no problem for them this year. )
Indianapolis UNDER 11.5 (I could see them winning 10 or 11, not 12 though)
Titans UNDER 6.5 (5 or 6 wins is perfect for them)
I'd forgotten all about this. After reading the first two, I thought I was on fire. Then I ran in to Indy. heh.
st.cronin
12-28-2005, 01:35 PM
What this thread illustrates is that 10-1 odds for a 4 team parlay is a great play by the house.
after examining, my top play would be PITTSBURGH over 9.5. They went 15-1 with a rookie QB last year, who is sure to be even better this season. They also return many of the players on the #1 defense in the league.
BANG!
I also like Carolina over 9.5, if they can stay healthy this season they are my pick (like most everyone else's) to take the NFC. Also, the Bucs are worth a look at over 6.5. A lot of close losses last season, and despite a 5-11 record, they were outscored only 304-301, with the #5 D.
BANG BANG!
one more thing-- Denver was the only team last season to finish top 5 in both offense and defense, so they're worth a look at 8.5. Although they play in one of the toughest divisions in the league.
BANG!
Too bad I didn't bet on all of these. But I got Pitt and Carolina.
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