Bears under/over

[RoastDuck]

7 wins (sportingbet odds 1.833)? I am not a gambling man but that seems a tad high. Am I missing something?

Bears schedule:

at Redskins
Lions
Bengals
BYE
at Browns
Vikings
Ravens
at Lions
at Saints
49ers
Panthers
at Buccs
Packers
at Steelers
Falcons
at Packers
at Vikings

[Greyroofoo]

Lions, Browns, 49ers, Saints,

I can see it

[mhass]

Bengals, Redskins and another Lions. There's seven.

[dixieflatline]

Bengals, Redskins and another Lions. There's seven.
yeah I really think they are going to sweep the lions and beat the redskins on the road. I mean their Orton got four pass attempts in their last preseason game with their number one offense. Going against one of the best defenses in the league last year on the road. What could go wrong?

I think 5 games is much more likely.

[dervack]

Yeah, I don't see more than 5 wins unless Orton develops into a stud over the course of the season.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Go Lions.

[AlexB]

From this schedule I would go under - can only see three games where they might be considered to be favourites: 49ers, Ravens & maybe Panthers at home, plus add one assuming they wont go the year winless on the road (at Saints or at Browns being the likely candidates).

Any team that has the HC saying about a QB that he's 'our starter, it's as simple as that. [He] isn't looking over his shoulder. He's our guy. And we can't wait to see him lead us.' and then within seven days cuts 'our guy' is a team that has no direction/short term confidence

(OK 'our guy' is CHad Hutchinson, but the point remains the same)

[rjolley]

You think the Bears are favored against the Ravens? Interesting.

I'd say 4-12, #2 or #3 pick in the draft, and the pick will be Leinart.

[Cringer]

Listening to the two of the guys on NFL Radio this last week (Adam Shine and John Riggins), they seem to think the Bears defense is so good, and that the running game should be so strong that the Bears will finish third in the division.....above the Packers. That last part drives me nuts, but I won't go there......

[RoastDuck]

From this schedule I would go under - can only see three games where they might be considered to be favourites: 49ers, Ravens & maybe Panthers at home, plus add one assuming they wont go the year winless on the road (at Saints or at Browns being the likely candidates).

always knew Leicester folk were a bit nuts ;)

How about Carolina @ 9 wins (1.833 odds)? Seem low? If they can just beat Atlanta once then 10+ does not seem beyond them.

Panthers:

New Orleans
New England
at Miami
Green Bay
at Arizona
at Detroit
BYE
Minnesota
at Tampa
NY Jets
at Chicago
at Buffalo
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
at New Orleans
Dallas
at Atlanta

[Cringer]

Carolina's non-division games fell their way. The harder teams they have at home....

[AlexB]

You think the Bears are favored against the Ravens? Interesting.

I'd say 4-12, #2 or #3 pick in the draft, and the pick will be Leinart.

I was just trying to find games where they weren't complete dogs! My reasoning was they're at home, Kyle Boller is a chump and Jamal Lewis has had a difficult offseason to say the least, so offensively there has to be question marks.

The Panthers is even more of a reach, but I figured they have to win 3-4 games somewhere down the line, and home advantage has to play a part.

The other two are the only ones I would actually (currently) consider backing my statement with a hard bet.

[rjolley]

Yeah, Boller is a chump, but the game is midseason, so I think Lewis will be back in form by then. Add that defense, and a rookie QB for the Bears, and it doesn't look good.

Of course, I thought Orton would be the best QB out of the Bears' group over the long haul. I'm glad they wised up and cut Hutchison. He didn't show much last year. Might as well go with the rookie and see what you'e got since there's no one else there to play.

[mhass]

yeah I really think they are going to sweep the lions and beat the redskins on the road. I mean their Orton got four pass attempts in their last preseason game with their number one offense. Going against one of the best defenses in the league last year on the road. What could go wrong?

I think 5 games is much more likely.
Hmm...

[mhass]

The over wins.

[miami_fan]

Is it time to bring back up those other preseason pick threads?

[cubboyroy1826]

Wow no kidding. Orton is not a stud but the D is better than advertised and Jones has been solid. It has been fun to watch but too many close games kinda like the Sox this year.

[flere-imsaho]

Orton's exactly the kind of QB this team needs. Solid but not spectacular, and (in general) doesn't make a lot of stupid mistakes.

Plus, when the defense gives you the ball on the 1-inch line, it's hard not to score.

[Joe]

stupid bears

[Daimyo]

I like Orton and think he might have a future as an NFL starter somewhere, but I think its a myth that he is helping the team or adding anything positive this year. He's pretty easily the worst starting quarterback (at least the worst who plays regularly) and the Bears have won much more despite him then because of him.

I'm sure they won't do it, but they should put Grossman in as soon as he's 100% becaue he looked solid in limited play last year and couldn't possibly add any less than Orton has so far.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm sure they won't do it, but they should put Grossman in as soon as he's 100% becaue he looked solid in limited play last year and couldn't possibly add any less than Orton has so far.

They won't, and they shouldn't. You do NOT change starting quarterbacks in the middle of a massive winning streak. Period.

Orton's not bad. He'll never get much in the way of glamorous numbers because he's not in a system that generates huge numbers. He doesn't fuck up often, and he has shown some flashes of brilliance.

Grossman is overrated. I won't label him injury prone, because his injuries HAVE been a series of flukes. However, Orton is now more experienced (in terms of games started) than Orton. Grossman is, for all intensive purposes, a 3rd year rookie. To me, he's shown absolutely nothing that would prove he's any better than Orton.

[Daimyo]

54.5% completion percentage
12 INT/292 attempts
5.22 YPA

Those numbers aren't solid... they're just plain bad. I know people tend to over-credit the QB with wins and over-penalize them for losses, but Orton deserves no credit for the Bears win streak. He's have a terrible year and just happens to be in the right place at the right time.

[Daimyo]

DOLA, I'm not surprised by the love Orton is starting to get around here. I remember last year the Bears won something like 3 straight with that crap rookie QB and people were starting to make a big deal about that even though he was one of the worst QB's I'd ever seen play. Orton is definately a lot better than what he was, but its the same concept.

[duckman]

54.5% completion percentage
12 INT/292 attempts
5.22 YPA

Those numbers aren't solid... they're just plain bad. I know people tend to over-credit the QB with wins and over-penalize them for losses, but Orton deserves no credit for the Bears win streak. He's have a terrible year and just happens to be in the right place at the right time.
You have to break down his numbers to see his improvement:

During the 1-2 start:
52.2% 146.7 YPG 1 TD 6 INT 41.86 RTG

During the 7 game winning streak:

55.3% 154.7 YPG 8 TD 6 INT 71.8 Rtg
During the winning streak, he has completed a higher percentage of passes, threw for more yards, and made fewer mistakes. And if you take away the 5 INT day against Cincy, his numbers even look better because he has thrown only 7 INT in 9 games. Those are not spectacular numbers, but solid for a rookie quarterback.

[Butter]

DOLA, I'm not surprised by the love Orton is starting to get around here. I remember last year the Bears won something like 3 straight with that crap rookie QB and people were starting to make a big deal about that even though he was one of the worst QB's I'd ever seen play. Orton is definately a lot better than what he was, but its the same concept.

That would be Craig Krenzel, currently 3rd string with the Bengals and former Ohio State Buckeye.

He's not a good NFL QB, but those 3 measly wins all of a sudden made people think that he was just a natural winner, and made few enough mistakes to allow a team to win.

Since when is not making any positive plays, but actually NOT making a few negative plays a sought-after quality in a QB?

Orton sux.

[rkmsuf]

That would be Craig Krenzel, currently 3rd string with the Bengals and former Ohio State Buckeye.

He's not a good NFL QB, but those 3 measly wins all of a sudden made people think that he was just a natural winner, and made few enough mistakes to allow a team to win.

Since when is not making any positive plays, but actually NOT making a few negative plays a sought-after quality in a QB?

Orton sux.

You guys should trade Orton for Cody Pickett and really test yourselves.

[QuikSand]

Wish I had taken my own advice...

A friend asked me for input in over/under betting this year, and list list had the Bears all the way down at 6 games -- this was right after the Grossman injury. My thinking was that Grossman was a bit overrated anyway, and that the team wouldn't lose too much by losing him -- so I thought the line was too low, and recommended he take the over. I think he ended up getting a bit less than even money on the bet (-120, I believe)... but "over 6" seemed like a pretty good proposition to me, especially getting a push at exactly 6 wins.

Wish I'd put down the same amount he tells me he did.

[JasonC23]

That would be Craig Krenzel, currently 3rd string with the Bengals and former Ohio State Buckeye.

He's not a good NFL QB, but those 3 measly wins all of a sudden made people think that he was just a natural winner, and made few enough mistakes to allow a team to win.

Since when is not making any positive plays, but actually NOT making a few negative plays a sought-after quality in a QB?

Orton sux.
Craig Krenzel is still in the NFL?? :eek: :eek: :eek:

And Orton is better than Krenzel, Quinn, and Hutchinson, so we're fine with him for now. :)