Poker: another hand to analyze

[Honolulu Blue]

Sometimes it's best to be lucky AND good.

This hand was from a 30+3 sit-and-go I played recently on PokerStars. The blinds just moved to 100-200. No ante yet. Three players left - both of whom I rated as being very solid players. I was in the small blind:

Button called for 200. He has 6815 chips and is the chip leader.
I'm holding KK. I have 2830 chips and am third of three.
The big blind is waiting. He has 3855 chips.

What should I do?

This is the first of three parts. I'll get back to you with part 2 tomorrow.

[rkmsuf]

Fold. You have too many Kings.

[KevinNU7]

All-in.

[MJ4H]

raise to 800.

[AlexB]

Personally I would raise about 1000, and be prepared to go all in if need be pre-flop. If a call comes up and an ace hits, I would be prepared to lay it down. You still have 9xBB if you have to do this. If no ace hits, all the chips go in.

But I'm no poker expert - this is just what I would do

[Barkeep49]

I would raise to either 600 or 800.

Alternatively if you're looking for a big win you could call now and if an ace doesn't flop push at that point.

[Butter]

If they're both solid players and not "crazy", I would raise to 600 and try and get the call out of the button.

[Radii]

The 500 chips in the pot would be nice but an all in over that is a little too much at this point. I think I would raise it up to 800 here. 1300 in the pot, 600 more to call, that's giving your opponents seemingly favorable odds but not good enough even for even Ax to call if they knew what you had.

Lets say you get called? Are you going to fold if an ace flops? I don't think i would, or could at that point. You're simply trying to get more money in the pot and will be pushing all in on the flop no matter what, unless you can get your money in pre-flop. And yes, it matters, if you want to leave yourself a way out if an ace flops after a call, then I'd only raise to 600, hopefully still enough to push out total crap by the big blind, and leaving you with slightly more should you decide to get away from this.

But I think it's folly to consider giving this up on the flop if an ace flops, there will be enough in the pot with one caller that you need to make a push/fold decision on the flop, unless you flop a set and decide to slowplay even more. You won't have room for a continuation bet on the flop or anything like that, so just get as much money in teh pot pre-flop as you can and push on the flop.

[rkmsuf]

The 500 chips in the pot would be nice but an all in over that is a little too much at this point. I think I would raise it up to 800 here. 1300 in the pot, 600 more to call, that's giving your opponents seemingly favorable odds but not good enough even for even Ax to call if they knew what you had.

Lets say you get called? Are you going to fold if an ace flops? I don't think i would, or could at that point. You're simply trying to get more money in the pot and will be pushing all in on the flop no matter what, unless you can get your money in pre-flop. And yes, it matters, if you want to leave yourself a way out if an ace flops after a call, then I'd only raise to 600, hopefully still enough to push out total crap by the big blind, and leaving you with slightly more should you decide to get away from this.

But I think it's folly to consider giving this up on the flop if an ace flops, there will be enough in the pot with one caller that you need to make a push/fold decision on the flop, unless you flop a set and decide to slowplay even more. You won't have room for a continuation bet on the flop or anything like that, so just get as much money in teh pot pre-flop as you can and push on the flop.

The man is wise. I'm not ashamed to say I got hard reading that. Well done.

[Radii]

The man is wise. I'm not ashamed to say I got hard reading that. Well done.


I'm not sure how to respond to that. I don't know if I should respond to that at all, in fact. But I just did. Oops.

[kcchief19]

First -- whatever Radii says to do, I would do. He's excellent and has whipped my behind repeatedly. One of my 10 personal poker rules is don't mess with Radii. I realize I shouldn't say this because it's just an invitation for him to steal my blinds and hose with me 92o just to mess with my mind, but he already knows I'm scared of him so it doesn't matter. :)

Second, the more I study the problem, the more what Radii says makes perfect sense. I think I bring too much baggage to the analysis, given that I've been on a streak lately where I'd say I have lost with KK so much lately when an ace flops. At this point in the tourney, I agree that your goal should be to extract as many chips as possible without losing to a crappy hand that sucks out. Given that, 800 should get the ball rolling.

Given that this "puzzle" comes in three parts, I'm guessing there is a "twist," so I'll let my question about what to do if you are reraised preflop wait until tomrrow. :)

[kingfc22]

I would raise to 600 unless that standard bet has been more than 3xBB, then I would raise to 800.

If they are both 'solid', then I would not put button boy on an A because he did not raise anything.

[cartman]

Didn't any of you learn anything from my WCOOP bust out hand?

;)

[Subby]

Easy push at this point in the tourney. With just three left you will get called by a much wider range of hands.

[sabotai]

I would push all in. But I'm usually wrong. :D

[Honolulu Blue]

Thanks for the responses all. Keep 'em coming.

My thoughts at the time:

OK, I'm short stacked but not desperate. I'd like to steal some blinds... ooh, kings! I want ALL the chips!

So, of course I folded.

Just kidding. :p

Going through my options... a call would be OK, since I figure to be ahead of both of my opponents and don't mind taking chips from both of them.

However, a standard raise (600-800 here) would get more chips in the pot. I figured one, the other, or both would call; if not, 500 in dead chips are fine too.

A raise to 1000 would have been more than I'd been raising before and might force marginal hands to fold. I want them to call. Similarly, going all in would be an overbet that would yield just the blinds & antes.

So I raised to 600.

The big blind called, but the button folded. 1400 in the pot and two to the flop...

Ac, Jh, Td

Not the best of flops for me. I have 2230 in chips left, my opponent in the big blind has 3255. What do I do now?

BTW, I have Kh, Ks.

[rkmsuf]

Depends on the opponent. You are kind of in no man's land. If you check and he bets you have found out nothing. If you go all in either he calls with an A or you take it down.

My intiial inclination is to bet 600 again. If reraised maybe bail out.



This could have been so much easier had you taken my advice and folded pre flop.

[Butter]

I don't think you could fold here, so I'd bet 800 or so with the expectation of calling an all-in if it came to that.

Of course, what I would actually probably do is check, which is why I suck.

[MJ4H]

All-in. Flop sucks, but no reason to assume your opponent has an ace. Even if he does, you have outs.

[hhiipp]

It's the Degree All-In Moment.

[Barkeep49]

A continuation bet is a must. That said, figuring out how much to bet in a continuation is the area of my NL poker I'm currently working on, so take this advice with that in mind. You said they were solid. I know from playing with you that you're solid. You need to gather information here as there are several playable hands (including hands as weak as J10s) that now have you beat and needing to draw out. Therefore, I would suggest a bet of between 40 and 60 percent of the pot. This could be enough to chase out some hands that have you beat (I'm thinking hands like A5s). And if you are ahead and the person folds then you've increased your stack by 50%.

[Chas in Cinti]

Big bet... I don't want the big blind to dictate to me and have a chance at making a "good bet"... he's got suited connectors or a low pair. If he had a big ace, or a high pair, a re-raise would have been the right play pre-flop. A small ace *should* have folded, but three-handed, you never know. If he has a small ace, a big bet should be enough to push him out... but make it chunky... a "slider" bet as I like to call it... make it look like you pushed the slider over and hit raise. So, $1000-$1200, and expect to fold if you get re-raised, cause then he Brunson'd your a$$.

:)

Just my 2 cents,
Chas

[Barkeep49]

A small ace *should* have folded

How small of an ace do people feel should fold three way in this situation? I know I wouldn't play anything below A9 or A8s but I'm not sure I'd be playing that correctly.

[KevinNU7]

Something to keep in mind is that you have a straight draw and if you are worried about bullets you have that as a fallback.

[rkmsuf]

How small of an ace do people feel should fold three way in this situation? I know I wouldn't play anything below A9 or A8s but I'm not sure I'd be playing that correctly.

Three handed any A would be good.

[Barkeep49]

Something to keep in mind is that you have a straight draw and if you are worried about bullets you have that as a fallback.
He not only has outs now (to at least split the pot) but unless his opponnent has pocket pairs and made a set on the flop, there is no card that can come on the turn that would cause him to be drawing dead. Now some would be 1 or 2 outers but having some sort of out when all the chips could easily go in seems important to me.

[Subby]

The BB could have a wide range of hands. Preflop he was getting 2.5-1 on his call, so that opens the door to anything.

Instead of thinking about the stuff he has that can beat you, think about all the crap he has that you are dominating. Any pocket pair 99 and below, QQ, KQ-K9, QJ-Q9, J9, J8, small suited connectors and one gappers.

A lot of stuff you may be scared of - AA, JJ, TT, AK, AQ - are hands that he probably would have come over the top with pf. There are probably a few hands you have to worry about - JT, AJ-A7, A6s-A2s - but you have outs, too.

Your hand is probably good here. Bet out 800.

[AlexB]

A small ace *should* have folded

As I said, I am not an expert, or saying I am right - just giving my reasoning for my initial post.

This is why I would have raised by 1000 - blinds wouldn't necessarily be the worst result in the world, and by lessening the odds, only a properly good hand should come over the top, and I think small aces should fold.

As one of the posts said, the BB may have got odds to call, but you don't know much about what he has got. Now you are forced to make another decent bet to find out where you are, which will cost more, whereas by getting a call of another 800, the flop would indicate that you may well now be behind, and it becomes a hell of a lot more risky.

I repeat my qualifying comment: I am hoping I will get a response as to my thoughts as much as advice on your own play :)

[MJ4H]

Just to be clear about my advice. I don't think any bet that is not all-in is good here. With any reasonable sized bets an all-in raise leaves you basically committed to the pot. I think you have to bet an amount that has the most power here. Maybe you can even fold those weak aces (though why they would call the raise preflop and then fold to strength post-flop, I'm not sure).

[SirFozzie]

Agreed. An all in here may make a weak ace fold.You have two chances at the Q for the straight, and 2 K's as well.

Push em in the middle.

[Butter]

The BB could have a wide range of hands. Preflop he was getting 2.5-1 on his call, so that opens the door to anything.

Instead of thinking about the stuff he has that can beat you, think about all the crap he has that you are dominating....KQ

He's not dominating that hand with that flop. And I've called a small raise many times short handed with this very hand. Him holding KK can probably rule it out, but you never know.

[Subby]

Sorry - yeah KQ no good - as you point out though, it is less likely (as is AK).

FWIW - no way an all-in bet here forces a good player to fold a weak ace.

[Subby]

If I am the BB and I see you push the flop here, I know it is because the A scared you - not because you have the best hand. So no way do I fold Ace-runt.

[rkmsuf]

If I am the BB and I see you push the flop here, I know it is because the A scared you - not because you have the best hand. So no way do I fold Ace-runt.


Supergays make great card players.

[MJ4H]

FWIW - no way an all-in bet here forces a good player to fold a weak ace.
I agree with this, as I alluded to in my previous post.

[Radii]

I think the 600 raise was too small, but it still had the desired effect, you got the BB out and got a caller.

I think here you have to decide if you're check/folding or pushing all in. You *must* be the one forcing your opponent to make the decision if you plan on staying in the hand. Don't bet out and then let him put you to the test with an all-in bet.

If you bet 800 into the pot, you're down to 1400 chips. If your opponent calls, there is 3000 in the pot going to the turn. If he goes all in over you, the pot will be 4400 and will cost you 1400 more to call. You're about 3:1 against Ace-little, a bit closer to 3.5:1 vs AT(two pair), but have a 9:1 edge over an underpair, 3:1 favorite over Q9's open-ender, over 4:1 over something liek QJ... the point being, you have left yourself a very very difficult decision. One of the key points in Harrington on Hold'em is that you must take potential future odds into consideration and make your bets in such a way as to leave you with the easiest decisions possible. A continuation bet here, unless you 100% absolutely decide to give up the hand if that bet doesn't make your oppoent fold(or a queen hits the turn if you're called), seems terrible to me for this reason. A call + any card but a king/queen on the turn, or a push over you, leaves you with a very, very tough decision.


I hate this board but i'm sticking with my original advice. The pot is big enough to win now, and if he has an ace at least you busted out with solid agressive play and not b/c you pussied out and let your stack dwindle ;)

[Radii]

FWIW - no way an all-in bet here forces a good player to fold a weak ace.


I agree with this too, but knowing that I still think it's a push :)

[Subby]

Do you think BB is capable of coming over the top of pf raiser with a worse hand on an AJT board?

If he is, more power to him, but I think a bet of 800 gives you a safety valve if needed.

Of course, this is the very reason you should have pushed pf. :)

[kingfc22]

I'd bet 800 here as well. That leaves you with 1430 in case you think a fold is necessary and you could easily steal a couple of blinds to get back up around 2000.

An all-in bet seems like a move at the pot and I would call you with an A if I was the BB.

[Subby]

Actually it's the BB who is still in the pot and he didn't re-raise, but did call the raise.

That said, I agree with the idea of a decent sized bet here, while not overcommitting to the pot.

[cartman]

I hate this board but i'm sticking with my original advice. The pot is big enough to win now, and if he has an ace at least you busted out with solid agressive play and not b/c you pussied out and let your stack dwindle ;)

Ok, you did learn from my WCOOP bustout hand...

:D

[sabotai]

I hate this board but i'm sticking with my original advice. The pot is big enough to win now, and if he has an ace at least you busted out with solid agressive play and not b/c you pussied out and let your stack dwindle ;)
*sigh*....for me, it's usually because of that second one.... :(

[kcchief19]

*sigh*....for me, it's usually because of that second one.... :( Ditto here.

If you push, what does that do? I think it might drive out Ax, but he's got to be concerned about this kicker. An ace with a quality kicker will probably call in a heartbeat. But at least you have six outs at this point -- that's probably more than he thinks you have.

I think I favor the all-in here. Forget about Ax, AQ, AK,AJ, AT -- I'm more worried about 66 right now. You're an underdog against those hands at this point and there's nothing you can do about it. You have three overcards on the board. I say represent the straight or a high ace and try to drive out a lower pocket pair. I'm more concerned about getting rid of a mid to low pocket pair at this point. I would rather go down with KK to a better hand than slowplay or passively play my kings and get bet by a suckout.

Represent strenght and get rid of him. I think a 600 to 800 bet at this point is too much value on his money for him to fold something like 88. If he's a good player, I think an all-in bet with that board is too much to call for a good player with a weak pocket pair. There is no way I call an all-in bet with that chip situation with a weak pocket pair and three over cards.

[GoldenEagle]

In my opinion, you left out one critical piece of information. I can not give advice until I know how you were perceived at the table.

[Honolulu Blue]

In my opinion, you left out one critical piece of information. I can not give advice until I know how you were perceived at the table.

Fair enough. I don't know the real answer, though; for that, you'd have to ask my friend in the big blind. I don't think we'd ever played together before, so this was the first time for both of us. Some notable hands:

Hand #31:

Blinds 25-50. 6 players left. Mr. Big Blind was UTG and raised to 100. Two callers, including yours truly in the big blind. I held QJ and had about 1000 chips. Both the other guys had over 2500.
Flop was JJ7 w/2 clubs.
I checked. Mr. BB fired out for 100. The other guy folded. I popped him back for 400. He raised & put me all in. I called.
He had Tc, 9c. I was ahead, but he had a boatload of outs.
The turn was Ts, giving him a few more outs.
The river was 4s and I doubled up.

Hand #39:

Blinds 50-100. 5 players left. I was second to act with AK & 2000 chips and opened for 300. Called from the small blind (1500 chips). No read on him, seemed typical for this level.
Flop was Q73 rainbow.
He checked. I bet 500. He raised all-in. The bluff-o-meter (R) was off the scale here, and the pot odds were attractive, so I called.
He flipped up A4.
The turn & river were two tens and I raked in another nice pot.

Hand #44:

Blinds still 50-100. 4 players left. I was in the small blind. Mr. Big Blind was UTG again (2390 in chips) and raised to 300. I had him covered and raised all-in.
He used up some of his time bank, then folded.
Not telling what I had this time, but I DID want him to fold.
In the chat after that he said "interesting".

* Four times I'd entered pots, was bet at on the flop, and folded.
* Twice I raised and won the blinds.

So, I honestly don't know what he thought of me & my play. You know about as much as he did about it.

BTW, the hand under discussion was hand #64.

[Subby]

Your image means little at this point. Everyone is going aggressive once it hits three-handed.

[Butter]

I'm more concerned about getting rid of a mid to low pocket pair at this point. I would rather go down with KK to a better hand than slowplay or passively play my kings and get bet by a suckout.

Represent strenght and get rid of him. I think a 600 to 800 bet at this point is too much value on his money for him to fold something like 88. If he's a good player, I think an all-in bet with that board is too much to call for a good player with a weak pocket pair. There is no way I call an all-in bet with that chip situation with a weak pocket pair and three over cards.

How is calling 800 on a 2200 pot giving a low pair value? He would need far more money in the pot to conceivably get any value out of trying to hit trips, plus he would need to have a lot more chips in relationship to how large the blinds are... if he calls this and doesn't hit trips on the turn with 77, say, all he's going to do is either fold or make a play at the pot anyway. If he just folds, he still has plenty of chips for a comeback.

A bet of 800 SHOULD make a low pocket pair fold without much hesitation. Especially if he's a solid player and 3 overcards are out there facing a pre-flop raise.

Based on what HB said at the beginning of his post, I think the BB has either KQ or is slow-playing AA.

[Honolulu Blue]

My thoughts after the flop:

Ah, doody. An ace AND two other high cards. What am I afraid of? KQ gives him the nut straight and I have 3 outs just to tie. AA gives me 4 outs. AK and AQ give me 5 outs. JJ, TT, JT, and Ax all give me 6 outs. Otherwise I have the best hand. There are lots of things he could call with preflop that I can beat. Do I have the best hand? I think so. Therefore, I should bet. Now.

I bet a nice, even 1000 chips. Down to 1230.

Please fold. Please please please please please please please please. I've got you beat and you know it. So fold, pretty please?

Mr. Big Blind promptly responded with a raise to 2000. Uh oh.

Now what?

[rkmsuf]

shoot the hostage

[Subby]

push

you have outs and he could have QJ or KJ or KT or an OESD.

[digamma]

Easy push.

[QuikSand]

Well, how can you have any question what to do at this point?

You made a middling bet to open, because you were willing to take the risk of an ace on the flop. I'm not wild about it... I like pushing all-in there to begin with... but that's not a ridiculous decision.

Now you have made a middling bet here, in hopes that he will fold. Why not push it all in? Because you are leaving yourself the out to fold if he raises. That is the only defensible logic for what you have done so far. So you fold here, and hope against hope that you can limp on and perhaps double up elsewhere.



Of course, given the fact that we have this multi-part thread for maximum drama, what you will actually do is call, you will see that you are beaten, I'd guess by a modest ace, and against all hope you will river him with your gutshot straight, I have to assume.

Nice hand, sir.

[Koryo]

My thoughts after the flop:

Ah, doody. An ace AND two other high cards. What am I afraid of? KQ gives him the nut straight and I have 3 outs just to tie. AA gives me 4 outs. AK and AQ give me 5 outs. JJ, TT, JT, and Ax all give me 6 outs. Otherwise I have the best hand. There are lots of things he could call with preflop that I can beat. Do I have the best hand? I think so. Therefore, I should bet. Now.

I bet a nice, even 1000 chips. Down to 1230.

Please fold. Please please please please please please please please. I've got you beat and you know it. So fold, pretty please?

Mr. Big Blind promptly responded with a raise to 2000. Uh oh.

Now what?

I'm guessing either AJ or AT. He didn't make enough of a raise to put you all-in so he's kept it something less than do-or-die. He figures if you do have a K or Q (or both) then he can split the pot maybe or possibly pair up to a full boat. A raise like this here definitely makes me think that you are behind at this point. His calling of the raise preflop makes me think that him holding a high pair is unlikely.

He's got a good hand but my feeling is that he sees a few outs on the board which can beat him.

[Butter]

That is the only defensible logic for what you have done so far.

I get the feeling Quik may not like your play here....

[QuikSand]

I get the feeling Quik may not like your play here....

Well, I don't think the play is awful - assuming that he'll fold to the (essentially) all-in raise. He took a risk, trying to increase his chances of crushing an unsuspecting guy with a big all-in move... the board didn't cooperate, and he still has a chance to get out when he's beaten.

But if he calls the raise, after praying for a fold, then there is no reason at all why he didn't just get all the chips in to begin with, thereby increasing the chance that the prayed-for fold would occur.

[Subby]

Well, if he's a good player he could just be instinctively trying to snap off a continuation bet by HB, too.

[kcchief19]

Of course, given the fact that we have this multi-part thread for maximum drama, what you will actually do is call, you will see that you are beaten, I'd guess by a modest ace, and against all hope you will river him with your gutshot straight, I have to assume.

Nice hand, sir. See, I'm still stuck on HB starting out by saying it's nice to be lucky and good. I think he will call go all-in, and end up getting his money in with the best hand when his opponent flips over pocket nines. The turn will bring a nine making his opponent's set, and the river will bring the miracle king.

Of course, I frequently lose.

[kingfc22]

If this is a top-3 paid tourney, then I would go all-in here knowing I already won some cash. If this was a bubble situation, then I fold.

[Butter]

If this is a top-3 paid tourney, then I would go all-in here knowing I already won some cash. If this was a bubble situation, then I fold.

That's what I was thinking too. But as you know, it's all about trying to win... blah blah blah.... but I like just making the money. Another hallmark of the below average player. I like to win once I get to the money, but I'll take more chances knowing that if I lose, at least I already got my money back, plus a little.

[KevinNU7]

This thread took to long

[Subby]

That's what I was thinking too. But as you know, it's all about trying to win... blah blah blah.... but I like just making the money. Another hallmark of the below average player. I like to win once I get to the money, but I'll take more chances knowing that if I lose, at least I already got my money back, plus a little. I think that is the right attitude, actually. Make the money, play for first, settle for 3rd.

[digamma]

In a slightly different variation of this hand, last night, I got Q-Q on the button. I was relatively short stacked (an hour and a half into a multi-table). I had roughly 10x the big blind (1950 and the BB was 200). The CO was a big stack (over 10k). He raised to 600. I pushed. He called with his A-small suited and made a flush on the river. I watched television with the wife.

[stevew]

This thread took to longYep.

[Subby]

If you had just open pushed, this thread would have been over days ago ;)

Seriously, open push and one hands beat you, while numerous hands call 3-way, especially when the callers have you covered.

[Honolulu Blue]

Thanks for the commentary, everyone. I promise this is the end.

Let's see, where were we - pocket kings, AJT board, facing a reraise for most of my stack. My thoughts at the time:

Got an ace, eh? Or do you want me to THINK you have an ace? Well, if you've got one, I've got outs. And if you don't, you're (probably) screwed. No guts, no glory...

I went all-in for my last 1230 chips. Mr. Big Blind called. He turned over Ad, 8d.

So he did have it after all. It could've been worse. I've got all the queens and both remaining kings to make a better hand.

The turn comes Kd. Baby!

But this brings a new set of outs for Mr. Big Blind. All the diamonds, except the ace or jack, would give him a flush. And any queen (save the Qd) would yield a straight and a split pot. So, I've got all those cards to dodge.

"No diamond! No queen!"

The river came Ts. My kings full beat his aces up.

This poker thing, piece of cake, right? :p

Sometimes it's best to be lucky AND good. BTW, I went on to win this tournament.

NEXT: 7h, 2s in the small blind! Dissected in 17 parts!!

[Butter]

A lot of times, I barely have time enough to call, see the other person's hand, and think about what they have before the turn and river are dealt in these types of situations. Sometimes I've won (or lost), without even realizing it for about 3 seconds.

Congrats. And as for the 2-7, that's a definite push.