NOW the Alex Smith era officially begins

[miami_fan]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2181151

Updated: Oct. 4, 2005, 8:08 PM ET
Smith to start at quarterback for 49ersBy Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com
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It is coming about four games later than originally anticipated, but the San Francisco 49ers will embark on the Alex Smith Era on Sunday, as the rookie quarterback and top overall selection in the 2005 draft will make his initial regular-season start.


Coach Mike Nolan, who said after the 49ers' loss to Arizona in Mexico City on Sunday night that he would reevaluate the quarterback position, informed Smith and also the demoted Tim Rattay on Tuesday of the change. It is not known when the 49ers will announce the switch, or if the move is a permanent one, but Smith will take the snaps with the first-unit offense at Wednesday's practice.

The 49ers, who have lost three straight games since upsetting the St. Louis Rams in the season opener, host the Indianapolis Colts this week. That means Smith's debut will come against one of the NFL's fiercest pass rushes, and the mobility of the former Utah standout will be tested.

Nolan did not make any statements Tuesday, an off-day for players, regarding the club's quarterback situation.

Earlier in the week, though, he noted: "I've always said we did not take Alex Smith with the first pick so that he could watch every game. When he takes the [starting] role, I don't know the exact time, but I know what I'm looking for. When that time is right and I see that, I'll make that decision on a commitment basis. What I mean by that is that I'm not wishy-washy about what we're doing. When we decide things, we go with them."

That statement would seem to augur that Nolan expected Smith, whenever he assumed the starting role, to retain the spot atop the depth chart. Some league observers felt that Nolan might wait until after Sunday's game to make a switch, because San Francisco has a bye after facing the Colts, and that would provide additional time to prepare Smith to play. But the staff, after a thorough evaluation of the offense and its struggles, felt the time was right to get Smith into the lineup.

A six-year veteran, Rattay has started all four games and completed 56 of 97 passes for 667 yards, with five touchdown passes, six interceptions and a 70.3 passer rating. Smith has made two relief appearances, completing six of 11 attempts for 34 yards, with no touchdown passes or interceptions, a 60.4 efficiency rating.

San Francisco managed just eight first downs and 168 total yards on Sunday night. The 49ers offense ranks 30th leaguewide and the passing offense is No. 28. The unit is last in the NFL in time of possession, with a 23:12 average.

Smith received much of the playing time in preseason, but struggled, and Rattay was elevated to the starting role for the beginning of the year. The 49ers signed Smith to a seven-year contract that voids to six years, with a maximum value of $57 million and $24 million in guarantees

[Draft Dodger]

he might as well just change his first name to "Akili" now.

[Kozure]

Poor guy. Doesn't know what kind of mess he is getting into...

[Mr. Sparkle]

Why oh why start him agains the Colts? He's going to get murdered. Let Rattay start this week, then use the bye week to give Smith plenty of time to prepare for Washington.

[miami_fan]

I really don't understand this move. This is not an Eli situation where you at least have a basic framework of an O-line to work with. I said it in a previous thread, he looked good when the Cards played a prevent D. On the last two or three plays they came with the blitz and he looked lost.

[Easy Mac]

This isn't an Eli situation because Smith isn't nearly as talented.

[Rizon]

Bubby Brister Will Work 4 Food

[Draft Dodger]

This isn't an Eli situation because Smith isn't nearly as talented.

++

[kingfc22]

Why oh why start him agains the Colts? He's going to get murdered. Let Rattay start this week, then use the bye week to give Smith plenty of time to prepare for Washington.
My thoughts exactly. We have nobody that is going to stop Freeney from teeing off on our QB. So why risk putting in Smith?

[Draft Dodger]

btw, who was the one predicting a Drew Brees like season for Tim Rattay?

[Karlifornia]

The Niners just keep finding reasons for me to watch, damnit!

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

How many sacks will SF's Left Tackle of the week give up on Sunday? I wish they could just sign Brady Quinn on a transfer from ND . Oh well there's always the 2007 draft.

[Kozure]

My guess Nolan is being made to do this change. Owners can put pressure on coaches to play certain players, especially when money is involved. They didn't give him that bonus for him to sit. I think the current ownership of the 49ers are suspect, so I have little doubt they would put pressure on Nolan in this way.

And starting him against the Colts is idiotic. Colts are going to go undefeated this season simply because the rest of the league are idiots.

[clintl]

This is a very bad idea.

[Vince]

This is a very bad idea.
[devil's advocate]

Why?

He's going to have to take his lumps at some point, and if Rattay is in there you know that as soon as he does ANYTHING wrong, the crowd will boo him. Sure, Smith is going to get mauled out there, but it seems to me that he might as well -- the sooner he gets thrown into a full-speed situation, the faster he can learn.

[/devil's advocate]

Yeah, I think it's a terrible idea too.

[TroyF]

Hell, the kid has to start sometime. I agree that maybe they should give him the bye week, but then again maybe this game will give him game film against a good defense that they can go over in the bye week.

And for all the Eli is talented and Eli had a line talk, Eli still finished with one of the worst QB seasons in the history of the league last year. (his similarity scores for rookie QB's was on par with Steve Walsh, Eric Zeier and Craig Whelihan)

I think Smith is going to be a very good QB in this league. He's an incredibly smart player, has a solid arm, good legs. He's going to look like a pathetic QB for a lot of this year, but I think he'll develop just fine.

I do think the SF line is horrific though. There isn't any doubt about that one. The coaches are going to need to move the pocket around and utilize the kids strengths, especially this year.

[clintl]

No offensive line. We don't want him to get killed before he has a chance to learn. If they're going to start him, wait to start him against a crappy team with no pass rush. Let him get a little confidence first. Bill Walsh was smart enough to let Joe Montana back up Steve DeBerg for a while, even though they weren't going to win with DeBerg at QB.

[Kozure]

Look, they held Steve McNair out for his first 3-4 seasons before finally letting him start, and look at how many championships he's won....aw crud, bad example.

They held out Kordell Stewart out for his first 3-4 years before finally letting him start, and look at how many championships he's won....hmmm, not much better.

Ok, they held out Eli Manning for a few games last year, now he's doing well.

Seriously, i think the organization has to plan better than this, and not throw him to the wolves for his first start. Unless they are forced to play him, they should wait for the best possible matchup. At least, it's what I would do.

Colts defnese, i don't think, will keep it up. Once it gets cold, they will start losing. But right now, they are hot.

[TroyF]

Eli Mannings first five starts last year:

Atlanta (1)
Philly (2)
Washington (9)
Baltimore (12)
Pittsburgh (7)

The numbers in () are the teams ranking in sacks. I'm not saying Smith is as prepared as Manning or that he's going to do better/worse/same as Manning next year. But what's the worst that can happen? He goes 4-18 against the Colts? (what Manning did against Baltimore last year)

Smith is going to get thrashed on Sunday. Anybody trying to make a case against that is insane. But this isn't going to be a disasterous thing where he never makes it when he gets knocked around. Three years from now we won't be talking about this start as the beginning or end of Smith. It's going to go down as nothing more than a footnote. I just don't see this as the disaster that some of you do.

[Thomkal]

See I told you the "Tim Rattay era" ended on Sunday night. :) I am a bit surprised they would let Smith start against Indy though. Don't they still have Ken Dorsey? I'd probably throw him in there and replace him with Smith late in the game when its out of reach already, then give Smith the start after the bye.

[General Mike]

I expect Gary Brackett to have at least 1 pick.

[miami_fan]

I think if they were going to start him in game five then you go ahead and start him in game one. That way you gameplan from day one with the idea that you have a rookie starter.

[dubb93]

Colts defnese, i don't think, will keep it up. Once it gets cold, they will start losing. But right now, they are hot.

You can think what you want but they have some serious talent everywhere except linebacker(great D line, young seconday that seems to be playing to their talent level finally, and the linebackers are young too)....but the new young linebackers are playing like they are for real so far. They have been drafting defense for a long time now and it seems to have finally come around. And once the defense gets cold(I doubt it does) Manning is forced to pass. Do you really want to be the team that forces Manning to throw the ball?

[Emiliano]

Finally.

In my opinion, Tim Rattay simply doesn't have the talent to be a starter in the NFL. He's a good player, he has good arm, but he's just a backup. Let's hope Smith will solve some problems. Having watched the 49ers 3 times this season, I can say that the offense really sucks. No rhytm, bad reads, anything. And I didn't like Barlow either. Being Nolan, I'll try to start Frank Gore. Obviously we have other problems also but at least the defense, despite a lot of injuries, is good (well, except the Eagles game, too much for us...).

[Darkiller]

Ultimately, you have to play the #1 pick.
The question is not anymore wether it is the "right time" or not...it is just "time for him to go".
Yes, he's likely to get hit big time sunday, yes he is likely to have an horrid line stats at the end of the game, and yes the 49ers will likely be blown out Sunday.

In the end, the one thing that matters is that Alex Smith gets playing time and experience the feel of NFL defenses.
Troy Aikman was winless in his rookie season (the Boys were 1-15 and the only win was with Steve Walsh at Qb)...Peyton Manning went 3-13 his rookie year. So what ?
Both are likely to end up in the Hall of Fame someday.

I don't mind the 49ers going 3-13 with Alex. I would be frustrated, though, if the Niners were to go 4-12 with Tim Rattay, because that would be useless ultimately.

[Kozure]

You can think what you want but they have some serious talent everywhere except linebacker(great D line, young seconday that seems to be playing to their talent level finally, and the linebackers are young too)....but the new young linebackers are playing like they are for real so far. They have been drafting defense for a long time now and it seems to have finally come around. And once the defense gets cold(I doubt it does) Manning is forced to pass. Do you really want to be the team that forces Manning to throw the ball?

When i say "cold," I mean the weather, not the defense. Dome teams suck in cold weather. All dome teams have a combined win percentage of around .300 in weather below 40 degrees. I'm not saying that the Colts are bad. I don't see how they haven't improved since last year. They have improved, defensively anyway. But the only way they are winning a super bowl is by gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they have to travel and play outdoors in the cold for a playoff game, they will struggle, just as they did last year in New England.

History has proven that dome teams, regardless of talent, struggle greatly in cold temperatures. That's why only one dome team has EVER won the Super Bowl, the St. Louis Rams. And the year they won it, they had home field advantage and the Super Bowl was in a dome.

Luckily, this year's Superbowl is in a dome too, so if the Colts can earn home field, then things look good for them. But I don't see them being the best team in the AFC in the final month of the season. They will finish, i bet, 3-3 in their final six games, depending on how many games they play on the road. It will be a tight finish.

[Greyroofoo]

I predict at least six sacks for the Colts this week.

I feel sorry for Alex Smith


And for the people who say the Colts can't play outside, do you realize they have a better record outside than in a dome right?

[TroyF]

I predict at least six sacks for the Colts this week.

I feel sorry for Alex Smith


And for the people who say the Colts can't play outside, do you realize they have a better record outside than in a dome right?


Really? How are you going to back this one up? Last year they went 8-1 at home (including the playoffs) They went 5-4 on the road. (losses at KC, Denver, and NE twice)

The year before they went 6-3 at home, but also played two more games in domes for a total of 8-3. They went 7-2 in games outside. Thing is, they struggled far more in those outdoor games than they did inside. They won a grand total of one game outside by more than six points. (the 38-31 win vs. KC in the playoffs) Their margain of victory in those 7 wins outdoors was 3.5 points. Margain of victory on the indoor games? 14.6 points.

Even with a similar record, they played far better indoors than outside. From 2001 on, they are 6-8 in road games in December.

Sorry, I don't see how this ranks as playing better outdoors than indoors.

[Kozure]

I never said that Colts are better at playing indoors than outdoors. I said they do not play well in cold weather, which is a fact.

Here is a breakdown of how the Colts have faired against cold weather teams on the road in games in November and later.

2004
Nov. 21 Chicago = Win
Jan. 2 Denver = Lose
Jan 16 New England = L

2003
Nov. 23 Buffalo = W
Jan 18 = New England = L

2002
Nov. 10 Philly = W
Nov. 24 Denver = W
Nov. 15 Cleveland = W
Jan. 4 New York Jets = L

2001
Dec. 2 Baltimore = L

2000
Nov. 5 Chicago = L
Nov. 19 Green Bay = L
Dec. 3 Jets = L

In November the Colts went 4-2.
In December = 1-2
In January = 0-4!!!!

Progression of hot to cold weather shows that the Colts can't cut it in the cold.

Now, i'm not a Colts hater. I like watching them. They are a fun team.