Bird Flu Pandemic

[brimick79]

Over the years, I've been mostly a lurker. Lately there's been alot of talk about a Bird Flu Pandemic and I'm wondering what you guys think. So I'm basically delurking for this thread because I'm very curious to know what you guys have to say.

Well for starters, I think this is some scary shit.

I also think that we americans (I know you're not all americans but most of you are) have this tendency to think "were in the US we're safe." Hopefully Katrina got rid of that notion. I think that it could potentially be awful if we think that.

It seems like there would be little hope of containing it if it mutates into something that can pass through the air.

The two political issues seem to be creating a bird flu czar and quarentining cities. A bird flu czar would be a good idea i think. But quarentine's have little or no chance of being effective.

BTW guys i've looked through the last several pages and have found nothing on this here. So please no one shoot if i'm bringing something up again. And I know you guys got guns. Most of you. J/K ;)

[albionmoonlight]

It's scary, and I am at least glad that our politicans are talking about it/aware of it.

Very few people alive today (myself included) in the Western World can even imagine a disease that kills most of the people it infects. It's just outside of our world-view.

[MikeVic]

I'm usually too concerned with things like this, because I'd hate to see what would happen if it DID spread like crazy. There's too many fiction and non-fiction stories out there about mankind screwing themselves, and not taking a disease seriously enough is something that could happen eventually.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'm primitive and don't keep up with current events at all. I have no idea what all of you are talking about, but it sounds scary.

Thanks.

[brimick79]

Well for anyone like Pumpy Tudors who doesn't know what we're talking about.

I'll sum it up:

Basically there's been a bird flu outbreak in asia. It has killed some humans, nearly all of had contact with sick poultry.

The virus is at the moment not able to effectively spread human to human. But if it mutates, it very well could. The virus could even spread through the air. Once it mutates it may also be less dangerous. Noone knows for sure. But it's guessed that best case scenario if the virus does become able to spread from human to human 5 million would die. Worst case scenario. Well I've heard as high as 500 million.

I wonder how much of this is fear mongering. The news media does have a motive to make us shit ourselves. It keeps us watching the news. I also wonder how much of it is justified concern. Unfortunately I think the latter is more true. I hope it is the former though.

[Mr. Sparkle]

See, I've heard worst case 8 million, but that the worst case most likely won't ever come to fruition.

[brimick79]

See, I've heard worst case 8 million, but that the worst case most likely won't ever come to fruition.

I think if you heard 8 mill it was probably just Americans. For what it's worth, the 500 million figure is thought to be extreme. But possible.

I agree that in all likelihood this will be averted. Atleast on a global scale.

I think the media is loving this story because it's keeping people afraid and tuned in. People like me who for the most part don't follow the news (I know most of it but don't feel the need to find out which gang killed someother gang leader's girlfriend, because for the most part that's your local news.) I think that health organizations and government are planning for worst case scenario, because that's their job. But the news media is playing it up as much as they can. If there was more to it, I think we couldn't turn the channel without hearing something about.

But I still feel that if worst case scenario happens, we're in big trouble. And that worries me.

[cuervo72]

I know this is a serious topic, but I couldn't help but mentally turn "bird flu" and "delurking" to "bird-of-prey" and "decloaking"...

But sure, such a scenario is quite scary. But like albion says, it's also quite hard to fathom (even things like Katrina seem distant in a way, here in the Mid-Atlantic).

[QuikSand]

* Never mind - I'll put it in another thread - no need to hijack this one *

[Buccaneer]

Didn't they say the same thing about SARS?

[PilotMan]

YES! They did Bucc! I said it somewhere else and I will say it again here. The media want you to be afraid. Plan for every possible consquence. We spend so much time trying to avert the worst, and protect ourselves from every small thing that could do us harm that we miss out on being prepared for the big things. Resources are squandered, and time wasted. If you don't cover everything you risk being sued. It is all BS.

Here is an example. Lets say that we had a terrorist attack in the US. Lets say that they hit 5 shopping malls in the US in the same day. Say that there were 1000 people killed. How much news coverage would it get? How much money would be spent to keep it from happening again? How would it change your life? Would you be afraid? What is the probability that it or something like it would affect you directly?

Now, compare this to the number of people who are killed in car accidents, falling down the stairs, or other accidents that are less publicized, and are now considerd common and accepted. It is not about where the real threats to you are it is about what makes money. It is about what captures your imagination.

Joe blow drives a taxi for a living. One of the most dangerous jobs to do. His life insurance policy is normal, he gets lots of money for low premium. I fly airplanes. Millions and millions of miles are flown by pilots around the world. Mortality rates are miniscule. But when I have to pay for the same life insurance policy, I have to pay 4 times as much for the same premium. Why? Because my job is dangerous. It's all BS.

It is the same as what I was talking about above. It is not the reality that gets you or what the media cares about, it is about the perception.

In the end we all have to live. Thats it, just live. Let the rain fall where it may, we are smart enought to deal with whatever happens.

I will step down now.

[Buccaneer]

Another example of the multitude of 24-hours media outlets needing to justify their existence?

[sabotai]

And before Katrina hit New Orleans, everyone was asking "Didn't they say the same thing about (insert Hurricane name here)?"

Do we really need to learn that lesson again so soon?

[Buccaneer]

What lesson would that be? That 30,000-40,000 would perish?

[sachmo71]

The guy who was on NPR from CDC or the UN (can't remember which but I'm sure you can look it up) was saying that in the US, worse case would be around 1.9 million before we were able to get a widespread vaccine.

I have since remember the "SARS scare", so I'm not going to keep myself up at night worrying about my children's safety.

[kcchief19]

Sigh.

The media did not create the bird flu. The media is not responsible for periodic pandemic flu outbreaks over recorded human history. The media is not prompting hundreds if not thousands of scientists to warn that a flu pandemic is not only possible but likely at some point in the future. The media did not prompt the president to make drastic comments about the prospects of a flu pandemic.

That said, we're a number of big steps away from a flu pandemic. The virus would need to be come airborn to be a threat while retaining its potency. That's not a guarantee on either count. I don't know what the odds are that those two things will happen, but I think the odds are long.

On the one hand, I have faith that improved health conditions -- more sanitary conditions, better preventive care, greater public awareness -- will help to keep a pandemic in check. However, I'm more concerned that if a pandemic flu virus does emerge, we will have almost no ability to produce enough vaccine to protect at-risk populations much less the entire country.

[sabotai]

What lesson would that be? That 30,000-40,000 would perish?
That just because the last time they said it would be bad and it wasn't does not mean it won't be this time.

[Buccaneer]

Cry wolf enough and some would bound to be true. Irresponsible journalism is not the same thing as informed and investigate journalism.

This is from the American Council on Science and Health

The Top Ten Unfounded Health Scares of 2004 (http://www.acsh.org/healthissues/newsID.1007/healthissue_detail.asp)

Any health issue has the potential of becoming bad, esp. when there are known outbreaks. But let's wait and see while the experts and technologists study, watch and react. We can't be a nation or civilization that relies so much on tabloid-style journalism and sensationalism.

[Mr. Wednesday]

FWIW, they believe that the 1919 flu pandemic was a bird flu mutation.

[clintl]

It's not the media playing this up. Scientists and the US government are the ones driving the coverage with their warnings.

[panerd]

I just came up from my shelter I originally built for Y2k and was hiding out in the last couple of years from the killer African Bees, mad cow disease, and SARS. A deadly flu virus? Who is responsible? The Soviets? Terrorists? The deadly forces of nature? Please media scare half the nation to death by giving us all of the death estimates. No need for balanced reporting, give us some worst case scenerios.

[Buccaneer]

Scientists and US government announce and publish stuff every single day - it's what they do to keep busy. Where do you think all of the previous health scares have come from? It is the job of journalism to discern and report responsibly, not to scare the public into selling more ad space.

[clintl]

The government has been raising the urgency of its warnings in the last few weeks, saying that the world is not prepared in very strong terms. These are not the normal government warnings. The press is merely reporting that, and educating the public on the threat. And I think it has done a very responsible job of reporting about the bird flu. The way these things get stopped before they get out of control is by raising the urgency early, when the disease can be contained. It's a whole lot better to spend money on containment and vaccine production that we never have to use than to let the disease get out of control before we can produce the vaccine.

[Buccaneer]

But that's just it, I don't think the scientific and medical communities get their information from USA Today or even NYTimes. The govt has been aware of this through their many science/medical-related agencies. Those are the folks to where the urgency is needed, no reason to scare the public that can't do anything but wait. If you say that it is up to an informed public to push the govt and scientists, I would say "on what?". Cancer? HIV/AIDS? Terrorism? We just run around like chickens with our heads cut off screaming about everything that could hurts us and those that can act still do what they can - given the millions of conflicting priorities.

[John Galt]

There is a BIG difference between the bird flu concerns and other hyped up health scares like SARS, IMO. The 1918 flu killed 50 million people (which was an even bigger deal back then). Scientists now believe that the 1918 flu was a bird flu that mutated to spread to humans. Once that mutation occurs, there is no turning back. For that reason, there are greater reasons to be concerned with this flu epidemic than any health crisis in a long time. It may amount to little, but I think it is a mistake to dismiss it out of hand as a media creation.

[Blackadar]

I'd be more worried about an outbreak of RAGE. 28 Days Later, we'd all be zombies.

[Warhammer]

The heck of it is, it may never mutate. Or, it could mutate tomorrow. My question is, why is THIS particular strain of the avian flu so feared? It seems every year there is another strain of the avian flu they are worried about.

From what I have gathered, SE Asia has always been the mixing pot for the flu because of all the water fowl, chickens, and pigs in close proximity. Apparently pigs are suseptable to both the avain flu and the flu that affects us, and they are a big petri dish for mixing up new strains.

[Chubby]

I'd be more worried about an outbreak of RAGE. 28 Days Later, we'd all be zombies.The T-virus is much more dangerous.

[Joe Canadian]

The Bird Flu Pandemic concerns are real...

[Mr. Wednesday]

My question is, why is THIS particular strain of the avian flu so feared? It seems every year there is another strain of the avian flu they are worried about. My impression is that there's ongoing concern about lethal strains of avian flu in Asia, and that it's actually not specific to a particular strain.

[Warhammer]

My impression is that there's ongoing concern about lethal strains of avian flu in Asia, and that it's actually not specific to a particular strain.

Not from what I've read. Most of the stuff I have seen on the topic refers to the AN51 strain of the virus.

Stuff I have read previously is that MOST flu strains emerge in Asia because of the interaction of all the flu strains between pig, avian, and human hosts.

[Daimyo]

It amazes me that people will dismiss something like this as bad journalism. No one is saying this will mutate and kill 50 million people... they are saying it is possible enough that people should be aware.

Say there is some set of conditions in which there exists a 5% chance some virus will mutate to the extent that 50 million die. Isn't that newsworthy? Just because they reported it the first ten times and it didn't happen, does that mean they're fear mongering to report it the next time?

[Joe Canadian]

Not from what I've read. Most of the stuff I have seen on the topic refers to the AN51 strain of the virus.

Stuff I have read previously is that MOST flu strains emerge in Asia because of the interaction of all the flu strains between pig, avian, and human hosts.

The reason why this strain is the one everyone is talking about is that it's the one that scientists think has the greatest chance of jumping to humans... it's not like they are randomly picking a strain and making it the new "shark attack" for the media... the fears of this are well founded & reality based. People should be glad the media is jumping on this, not laughing at them for doing so.

[Warhammer]

It's more of a, "Well, duh!" issue with me. Most of the viruses that are most lethal to humans are those that just jumped over to human hosts. The result is that the parasite (the virus in this case) is not used to the new host and kills it. Which is not beneficial to the host or the parasite. Instead, it just wants to make the host a factory for producing more parasites, so natural selection (to bring this into it) will favor the less lethal strain as it can produce more viruses (due to the host living, and having more opportunities to pass the virus on, etc.).

[panerd]

Say there is some set of conditions in which there exists a 5% chance some virus will mutate to the extent that 50 million die. Isn't that newsworthy? Just because they reported it the first ten times and it didn't happen, does that mean they're fear mongering to report it the next time?

No doubt. A 5% chance of 50 million dead should be on all networks including HBO, MTV, etc. non-stop. I think you may want to recheck the probability of the bird flu mutating again though.

[Daimyo]

Obviously the point isn't in the precision of the numbers, but the idea (at least I thought it was obvious, I apologize for overestimating the audience). If you agree a 5% chance of 50 million dying is newsworthy, where do you draw the line? 1% chance of 5 million?

How low do the numbers have to get before the risk outweighs the risk of terrorism in the US? 0.02% chance of 5 million? If you want to argue that the risk will never outweight the risk of death in a car accident or heart disease and thus is completely un-newsworthy I think you're arguing a losing battle... the public just doesn't care about those things.

[Buccaneer]

It amazes me that people will dismiss something like this as bad journalism. No one is saying this will mutate and kill 50 million people... they are saying it is possible enough that people should be aware.

Say there is some set of conditions in which there exists a 5% chance some virus will mutate to the extent that 50 million die. Isn't that newsworthy? Just because they reported it the first ten times and it didn't happen, does that mean they're fear mongering to report it the next time?
I'll remember that the next time there's a terrorist threat or alert.

[Warhammer]

Now there are news releases that the H5N1 virus has spread to Europe. No people have been infected but birds in Turkey have been infected.

Again, I ask, to what lengths do we go to prevent the spread of this? If we want, why not kill all chickens? That will certainly stem the tide a good bit. While we're at it, why not kill all pigs? Because that is where flu strains swap genes. Where do we draw the line? When does all this preparation become too expensive? We have become a society that is obsessed with the next big thing (whatever that may be) and try like the dickens to bring it to fruition or keep it from happening.

[Kodos]

Maybe we should try giving the birds some chicken soup.

[Joe Canadian]

Again, I ask, to what lengths do we go to prevent the spread of this? If we want, why not kill all chickens? That will certainly stem the tide a good bit. While we're at it, why not kill all pigs? Because that is where flu strains swap genes. Where do we draw the line? When does all this preparation become too expensive? We have become a society that is obsessed with the next big thing (whatever that may be) and try like the dickens to bring it to fruition or keep it from happening.

I don't think spending money on vacine development is too much... but hey, thats just me.

[bronconick]

I recall reading a thread where the federal government basically "ripped off" a patent holder , claiming National Security. I would think this qualifies as a case for the feds to rip off the design and get to work making their own, no?

hxxp://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/14/health/14virus.html



A major Indian drug company announced yesterday that it would start making a generic version of Tamiflu, the anti-influenza (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/health/diseasesconditionsandhealthtopics/influenza/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) drug that is in critically short supply in the face of a possible epidemic (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/health/diseasesconditionsandhealthtopics/epidemics/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) of avian flu (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/health/diseasesconditionsandhealthtopics/avianinfluenza/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier).

"Right or wrong, we're going to commercialize and make oseltamivir," said Dr. Yusuf K. Hamied, chairman of Cipla of Bombay, using the drug's generic name and acknowledging that he might face a fight in the Indian courts with Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical giant that holds the patent.

Although generic manufacturers cannot legally sell the patented drug in the West, all national patent laws, including those of the United States (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/unitedstates/index.html?inline=nyt-geo), allow governments to cancel patents during emergencies and either buy generics or force patent holders to license their formulas to rivals.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Health and Human Services, which has recently ordered 12.3 million doses of Tamiflu from Roche, said she could not comment on the effect of Cipla's announcement. "Preparing the world for a pandemic flu outbreak is a top priority, and we're looking at various options in stockpiling drugs and vaccine," said the spokeswoman, Christina Pearson. "But there are a lot of issues, and it's too early to speculate about this right now."

Roche has been under growing pressure from several countries and the United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/kofi_annan/index.html?inline=nyt-per), to license generic versions of the drug, which eases flu's worst symptoms.

The company, which sells Tamiflu for $60 per treatment in the United States, has repeatedly refused to license the generic version, or even to disclose how much it makes, other than saying it plans to increase production "eightfold." A Roche spokesman, Terry Hurley, said yesterday that the company "fully intends to remain the sole manufacturer of Tamiflu."

Making the drug involves 10 complex steps, he said, and the company believes that it will take another company "two to three years, starting from scratch," to produce it.

Dr. Hamied dismissed that claim, saying that he initially thought it would be too hard but that his scientists had finished reverse-engineering the drug in his laboratories two weeks ago. He said he could have small commercial quantities available as early as January.

Asked if he thought Dr. Hamied was making an idle boast, Mr. Hurley declined to comment.

Cipla, India's (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/india/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) third-largest drug maker, has copied dozens of Western drugs, including Lipitor and Viagra, and produces raw ingredients for Western drug companies. Its inexpensive H.I.V. (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/health/diseasesconditionsandhealthtopics/aids/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) drugs, approved by the World Health Organization, are used by 400,000 people worldwide.

Dr. Hamied said he would sell generic Tamiflu "at a humanitarian price" in developing nations and not aim at the American or European market. "God forbid the avian flu should strike India," he said. "There is no line of defense."

Under Indian patent laws, which were tightened in March, he believes that he can sell the drug in India and in 49 other countries rated "least developed" by the United Nations.

The new law recognizes patents filed by Western companies after Jan. 1, 1995, and the Tamiflu patent in India was filed with a "priority date" of Feb. 26, 1995. Dr. Hamied said he thought the Indian government would be unlikely to fight over a 10-year-old difference of two months, especially if the lives of millions of Indians were at stake.

Scientists in Taiwan (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/taiwan/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) and other countries have said they, too, can produce generic Tamiflu, if patent issues are resolved.

Mr. Hurley declined to say whether Roche would fight Cipla in court, but said, "If we determine that there has been an infringement, we'd move to protect our rights and interests."

[Mo.Raider]

Eventually we will have a bird flu; swine flu; volcanic eruption; earthquake; hurricane; global economic collapse; war; famine; etc. etc. etc.

Not to downplay any concerns; an ounce of prevention truly is worth a pound of cure. However, there is something that impacts many as of late more than "the next big one". It is the fear of the next big one. A little advice: Live life like the next breath is not your own, but a gift from God. I realized a long time ago that we just might not get out of this world alive :) .

Too sum up; dying from the bird flu produces the same result as a massive coronary due to that cheeseburger in your hand.