BCS Outlook

[Huckleberry]

Here are the current BCS standings with updated Coaches' and Harris Polls as well as updated Sagarin, Billingsley, Anderson Hester, Wolfe and Colley ratings. Last week's numbers are used for Massey. Highest and lowest computer ratings are thrown out:


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 90pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=121 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 14pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 810" width=19><COL style="WIDTH: 41pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2346" width=55><COL style="WIDTH: 35pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2005" width=47><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 14pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right width=19 height=17 x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 41pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" width=55>USC</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" width=47 x:num="0.9922742411266533"> 0.9923 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=17 x:num x:fmla="=A1+1">2</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">Texas</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.95239413835759823"> 0.9524 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=17 x:num x:fmla="=A2+1">3</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">Virg Tech</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.90340945855933008"> 0.9034 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=17 x:num x:fmla="=A3+1">4</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">Georgia</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.88994480921115227"> 0.8899 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=17 x:num x:fmla="=A4+1">5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">Alabama</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.82534970025692267"> 0.8253 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=17 x:num x:fmla="=A5+1">6</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">Miami</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.71612427443143967"> 0.7161 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=18 x:num x:fmla="=A6+1">7</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">Tex Tech</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.69673327623941395"> 0.6967 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=17 x:num x:fmla="=A7+1">8</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">LSU</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.68781806070986773"> 0.6878 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=18 x:num x:fmla="=A8+1">9</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">UCLA</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.66415072794747365"> 0.6642 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" align=right height=17 x:num x:fmla="=A9+1">10</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99">Penn St</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff99" x:num="0.58931487296602914"> 0.5893 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[GrantDawg]

Georgia over VT? No.

[Huckleberry]

No it's not right that they're ahead of VT or no they aren't ahead of VT?

Georgia ahead of VT right now is what happens when you don't let computers use margin of victory.

[Huckleberry]

Updated for Billingsley's release. No significant change as that was either the highest or lowest rating for the top teams.

[Chas in Cinti]

Can't believe Tex Tech is that high with their SOS...

But they DID beat Nebraska and K St handily... hmmm...

-Chas

[digamma]

Can't believe Tex Tech is that high with their SOS...

But they DID beat Nebraska and K St handily... hmmm...

-Chas
SOS only factors into the computer polls, which as a whole make up 1/3 of the BCS poll. Higher poll rankings outweigh lower relative computer rankings. The separate factor for SOS and quality wins is no longer part of the calculation.

[GrantDawg]

No it's not right that they're ahead of VT or no they aren't ahead of VT?

Georgia ahead of VT right now is what happens when you don't let computers use margin of victory.

No, it is not right. ESPN radio is reporting that VT is going to be third in the BCS.

[Huckleberry]

It will be close. Anderson Hester just released to nudge Va Tech past Georgia.

Wolfe and Massey will determine the Georgia/VT thing. ESPN Radio doesn't really know anything we don't.

[Huckleberry]

LOL. They released them on the BCS site but their server is overloaded.

[Huckleberry]

Well, ESPN Radio was correct, as long as Massey doesn't do anything crazy. Everything but Massey now included.

BCS site now down.

[VPI97]

Well, ESPN Radio was correct, as long as Massey doesn't do anything crazy. Everything but Massey now included.FWIW, Massey is a VT grad :)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Okay, I've now looked at the whole thing ... and can't figure out how the computer rankings are judging things at all.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/abcsports/BCSStandings

I guess I thought that the computer rankings would take SOS into account more than they do, looks like they're hanging heavily on total losses (based on the relative positions of WVU & ND). Maybe I was foolish for thinking that'd be the case, but I'm surprised nonetheless.

[sooner333]

Okay, I've now looked at the whole thing ... and can't figure out how the computer rankings are judging things at all.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/abcsports/BCSStandings

I guess I thought that the computer rankings would take SOS into account more than they do, looks like they're hanging heavily on total losses (based on the relative positions of WVU & ND). Maybe I was foolish for thinking that'd be the case, but I'm surprised nonetheless.

I think they have ND where they are because they haven't beat a team with a winning record (well, now Michigan does, so that makes it one team). I think they do take SOS into account somewhat, but overall record does mean something, and some take recent results into account more as well. Sometimes people think computers are just a glorified SOS, but in reality, they just take certain parts of SOS into account when ranking teams.

[ISiddiqui]

Indeed... when you have people saying the computers are good because they filter out the biases of pollsters, this is what you get. Notre Dame really hasn't beaten anyone that great.

Oh, and I do think West Virginia is far better than most people think they are.

[molson]

SOS only factors into the computer polls, which as a whole make up 1/3 of the BCS poll. Higher poll rankings outweigh lower relative computer rankings. The separate factor for SOS and quality wins is no longer part of the calculation.

But SOS also factors into the human polls (presumably) - it was a bit of overkill to have SOS influence the computer polls, human polls, AND as part of a seperate category.

[cthomer5000]

No Rutgers!?! http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/confused.gif


WTF?! http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/mad.gif

[Mr. Wednesday]

Can't believe Tex Tech is that high with their SOS...

But they DID beat Nebraska and K St handily... hmmm...Unfortunately, they seem to think that nobody is capable of formulating MoV correctly into computer rankings, so the only place winning handily matters is in the polls.

[sooner333]

I think the BCS was more of an accurate reflection of the top teams when it was computers 1/2 humans 1/2. I didn't mind SOS because unless the descrepencies were big or the teams really close in the other factors it was just bringing people close together...I guess people didn't like that third party games affected the SOS, but there's really no other way. True, Boise State vs. Hawaii in December doesn't have a direct effect on how good USC is, but in reality, it makes a difference on how good that Hawaii team really was that year.

The quality wins was kind of a knee jerk thing, but I do think some credence needed to happen in head to head situations, but I also think the computers could have taken care of that somewhat.

Lastly, the margin of victory, capped at around 25 or so would still be liked by me.

[Mr. Wednesday]

ND is a pathological situation because the Irish haven't beaten anybody good, but both losses are by very narrow margins. The result is that if you look at Sagarin, ND comes in 23rd on the BCS input W/L-only rank, but 4th on the "predictor" that does a better job of predicting future results. I expect that as ND plays more games, the two will tend to converge, unless of course the Irish keep beating the cupcakes and lose another close one to Tennessee.