Hurricane Wilma

[DeToxRox]

Its 1:50 AM and my Comcast cable cut to the Weather Channel where they said Wilma is approaching Category 4 and could be the worst Hurricane yet.

I didn't catch all of it but from Minnesota or so East, we're all getting rain/snow, South included *Well not the snow* at some point.

Some form of warning is in effect but it cut off like I said but anyways, this is gunna be bad news again it seems.

[Solecismic]

There are many possible scenaria here. It could pass right over the middle of Florida, go out the Atlantic, regain strength and whack the east coast just about anywhere.

We've had just about all the rain we can handle. Another few inches, and our little town is going to be cut off from the world for awhile.

[DeToxRox]

There are many possible scenaria here. It could pass right over the middle of Florida, go out the Atlantic, regain strength and whack the east coast just about anywhere.

We've had just about all the rain we can handle. Another few inches, and our little town is going to be cut off from the world for awhile.

So no game, eh?

Kidding of course.

Hope everything goes well, Jim. I've seen photos from the East (DD I believe posted them) and also on the Weather Channel.

Doesn't look good.

[sabotai]

From weather.com:

Hurricane Hunters have just recorded a pressure of 901 mb, the 5th lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. This represents a 69 mb drop in less than 8 hours! Winds are now up to 150 mph making this a Category 4 hurricane. Wilma could become a Category 5 later this morning.

[digamma]

On the sports related front, an announcement will be made this morning whether the Georgia Tech-Miami game will be moved to Friday, Sunday or later in the season. If they opt for later in the season, it will likely involve, Miami moving its game with Wake Forest up a week and Tech filling the open date left by that movement.

[stevew]

Man, time to start topping off the gas tank again. Horrible hurricane season this year.

[wade moore]

Surprised no one has posted that Wilma is a Hurricane 5 now...

Looks like right now as Jim said it is likely to jump right across the middle of FL... with the worst case scenario in my mind (although I have not seen a track that shows this besides Jim mentioning the possibility) is that FL hardly slows it down and it makes a jump back to hit the Carolinas or VA....

[jeff061]

There are many possible scenaria here. It could pass right over the middle of Florida, go out the Atlantic, regain strength and whack the east coast just about anywhere.

We've had just about all the rain we can handle. Another few inches, and our little town is going to be cut off from the world for awhile.

Is it pretty bad in Amherst? Maybe I ought to give my folks a call for once. I haven't heard anything from them on that, except for Alstead of course.

[BucDawg40]

...sitting here in Tampa, waiting for the hammer to drop...

[wade moore]

...sitting here in Tampa, waiting for the hammer to drop...
I don't think I'd be sitting there...

i think I'd be packing up and making hotel reservations in TN or inland GA or VA ;)...

[Ragone]

should make this weekends kc@miami game interesting..

[Solecismic]

Is it pretty bad in Amherst? Maybe I ought to give my folks a call for once. I haven't heard anything from them on that, except for Alstead of course.

No, it's not bad here. Just imagine a spring thaw after a heavy winter and add a little. The golf course by the Souhegan is partly under water, which is interesting to see. Areas that are prone to flooding are wet. The marshes are spilling out onto roads.

But if we get another 10 inches of rain, which is what some people are saying we could get next week if we get some bad luck with a couple of storms merging, then we'll see a lot of roads closing because the ground just isn't absorbing much right now.

For now, the damage is off to the west. Closest city that really got hit hard was Hillsboro, maybe Henniker to the north.

[BucDawg40]

I don't think I'd be sitting there...

i think I'd be packing up and making hotel reservations in TN or inland GA or VA ;)...

I have relatives in Savannah and Covington, GA that I can stay with if it comes to that. I don't want to evacuate, but I'll be ready when the word is given. Hopefully, we'll be able to get out of here ahead of the rush. It won't be much fun chauffeuring my disabled mother & my two large dogs to Georgia in my 91' Mazda 626.

Where is my gun?

[GrantDawg]

I have relatives in Savannah and Covington, GA that I can stay with if it comes to that. I don't want to evacuate, but I'll be ready when the word is given. Hopefully, we'll be able to get out of here ahead of the rush. It won't be much fun chauffeuring my disabled mother & my two large dogs to Georgia in my 91' Mazda 626.

Where is my gun?
Hey, drop me a line if you end up here. I'm broke, but maybe I can pull enough together to buy you dinner.

[Butter]

Speaking of Hurricane Wilma, despite the fact that it hasn't made landfall, someone just sent me some amazing pictures that totally aren't just of a thunderstorm over the Great Plains... let me post a few dozen of them for you....

[kcchief19]

Wilma Now Most Intense Atlantic Storm Ever (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051019/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/hurricane_wilma;_ylt=AjBOVr.dTr4BjSQDwcGwFhGs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--)

Amazing. Went from a tropical storm to a category five hurricane in less than 24 hours, making it both the fastest developing and most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. It's a fascinating weather phenomenon.

I'll admit I'm confused by the storm prediction tracks. The NHC shows Wilma making an almost 90 degree right turn on a dime to hit Florida and picking up a lot of speed as it heads back to the east. If that happens, it could really pack a wallop because at the speed the show it moving between 2 am Saturday and 2 am Sunday it would have almost no time to lose strenght before it makes landfall. The track NHC shows now would be a best case scenario, that it crosses Florida and heads out into the Atlantic, unless it follows that path, rebuilds, and comes back toward the coast.

[Eaglesfan27]

Don't take this the wrong way, but I just hope the experts are correct and this thing turns east as they are predicting. Of course, I hope it turns east very early, and misses Florida entirely. If this storm hit New Orleans or anywhere close to New Orleans, I think the psychological damage combined with the physical devastation would be unimaginable.

[BucDawg40]

Hey, drop me a line if you end up here. I'm broke, but maybe I can pull enough together to buy you dinner.

Will do -- and thanks! Us 'Dawgs have to stick together.

[wade moore]

Don't take this the wrong way, but I just hope the experts are correct and this thing turns east as they are predicting. Of course, I hope it turns east very early, and misses Florida entirely. If this storm hit New Orleans or anywhere close to New Orleans, I think the psychological damage combined with the physical devastation would be unimaginable.
Edit: Thought better of my post and removed it. Too much room for flamewars and misunderstanding.

[Wolfpack]

EF, I would suggest that New Orleans is pretty much in the clear at this point. Of course, keep a watchful eye, but it's pretty unlikely this will affect you. Based on the forecast track that's being put out, the storm would have to go over the Yucatan and emerge in the western Gulf for it to have any kind of chance of reaching Louisiana.

The expectation right now is that Wilma has "bottomed out" and would not be intensifying further (though the 11 AM advisory maintains the central pressure at 882) and is more likely to weaken in some fashion over the next several days. The reason for the sudden sharp right at the Gulf is because the Westerlies are supposed to catch the storm and ride it eastward. Unfortunately, this is bad news for Florida because the storm really can't miss the state once it reaches the Gulf. Be that as it may, it's currently expected to landfall as a borderline Cat 3/4 with winds around 130.

Unfortunately, as wade noted, the forward speed is of some concern because Florida won't really have a chance to tear up the storm sufficiently and it's expected to remain a hurricane all the way across the state.

[Ben E Lou]

Will do -- and thanks! Us 'Dawgs have to stick together.If y'all are willing to meet me in the Conyers-ish area, I'm in, and will help G-Dawg with the other half of B-Dawg's dinner. :)

[Wolfpack]

Finally read the 11 AM discussion and things are about where they have been. Winds at 175, pressure 882 mb. They are sending in another plane that should be there a little later on today. They still figure on a hard right at the Gulf and a run across Florida.

However, folks up in the Northeast need to start tuning in a bit more as some models are beginning to see a slight shift westward that might have the storm coming close to New England early next week. Though the winds are forecast to be much weaker than they are now, the forward speed will be up in the upper 20s, which will have the effect of worsening the winds on the eastern side of the storm. If I'm figuring things right based on current forecasts, winds would be about 120 mph (Cat 3) on the southeastern side of the storm at the end of the forecast period, which has the storm currently out to sea at that point. However, any significant jog westward would bring the storm in pretty close to the New England coast.

Landfalling New England storms are uncommon, though. The best known are Bob (1991), Gloria (1985), and the "Long Island Express" hurricane of 1938.

[Qwikshot]

I just want to say: hurricanes.

My fault...I'm sorry.

Thanks...(whew) needed to get that off my chest.

[finketr]

I'll admit I'm confused by the storm prediction tracks. The NHC shows Wilma making an almost 90 degree right turn on a dime to hit Florida and picking up a lot of speed as it heads back to the east. If that happens, it could really pack a wallop because at the speed the show it moving between 2 am Saturday and 2 am Sunday it would have almost no time to lose strenght before it makes landfall. The track NHC shows now would be a best case scenario, that it crosses Florida and heads out into the Atlantic, unless it follows that path, rebuilds, and comes back toward the coast.

If it makes that 90 degree right and picks up the speed, it will almost certainly "fall apart" as hurricanes usually don't remain that intense for that long.

[kcchief19]

If it makes that 90 degree right and picks up the speed, it will almost certainly "fall apart" as hurricanes usually don't remain that intense for that long. Normally hurricanes lose their most strenght when they reach landfall. Katrina almost certainly would have been a strong 4 or a weak 5 when it made landfall if it had sustained its earlier speed, but it slowed down to like 11 miles per hour as it approached land, which brought more rain but also weakened its winds considerable because it no longer had the warm moist Gulf conditions to draw strength from. But if Wilma is in the deep Gulf and moves at 40+ mph toward land, there will be last time for it to lose strength as the outerband reaches landfall.

[JeeberD]

Man, time to start topping off the gas tank again. Horrible hurricane season this year.

Gas prices shouldn't go back up, should they? This one isn't heading for the gulf coast where all the refineries are...

[digamma]

On the sports related front, an announcement will be made this morning whether the Georgia Tech-Miami game will be moved to Friday, Sunday or later in the season. If they opt for later in the season, it will likely involve, Miami moving its game with Wake Forest up a week and Tech filling the open date left by that movement.
The game has been postponed until November 19. Wake-Miami has been moved up to November 12.

[Wolfpack]

2 PM intermediate advisory has come out. As expected, the intensity isn't being maintained. Wind speeds are down to 165 mph and the pressure has come back up, now estimated at 900 mb. New recon flight is due in the area shortly.

(disclaimer: this is purely my own intuition and doesn't come from NHC in any way) She still rates a Cat 5 right now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her drift down into the Cat 4 range (135-155) before the night's over. She'll probably maintain that intensity until she begins to turn towards Florida, which is when the Westerlies are supposed to steer her that way. More importantly, she'll be in an unfavorable setting, getting some sheer, some cooler water, and getting pushed rather rapidly northeastward. I'll hazard a guess that she'll be a 3 (115-130) and landfall somewhere around Tampa.

[stevew]

Gas prices shouldn't go back up, should they? This one isn't heading for the gulf coast where all the refineries are...
Dude, we both know that doesnt matter.

[gstelmack]

Dude, we both know that doesnt matter.
Yup. Clarke Howard was reporting yesterday that wholesale gas prices have dipped from $2.80 to $1.80 / gallon, but they've dropped all of 10 cents at retail around here. Any little burp and they skyrocket immediately, and then take forever to drop back down, and then only because each of the stations tries to slowly drop prices to syphon off business from others nearby.

Last week the local authorities went after a gas distributor in this area for price-fixing. The distributor was trying to make a local station "get with the program" because he was charging 40 cents less than everyone else, and went so far as to lock his pumps and remove all the gas from his storage tanks.

[Wolfpack]

11 AM advisory/discussion is available. Essentially, the gist is that the Yucatan is now going to get crunched by this storm. Wilma has continued to move a little further west than expected, which means that forecasts have continued to move westward with it. At one time, it was expected to shoot the channel between Cuba and the Yucatan, but now it's expected to ride up the coast into the Gulf. More ominously is the indication that the eyewall replacement cycle is nearing completion and Wilma is expected to re-intensify before landfall, perhaps to a borderline Cat 5.

However, what's bad for the Yucatan will be better for Florida. Any time spent over land or along the coast will be a drain on Wilma. She's now predicted to have winds of about 120 by Sunday morning as she rushes towards Florida. The only problem is that the diminished strength will be somewhat offset by that rapid forward motion. She's going to be moving over Florida at about 20 mph, which means winds on the south side of the storm could be up around 140.

Current forecasts still put the storm ashore down in the Naples/Fort Myers vicinity, cutting across the peninsula, and then re-emerging in the Atlantic as a weaker hurricane. They still forecast the storm to remain offshore for the remainder of the time and think it may actually become a pretty powerful extra-tropical system before all is said and done.

[Craptacular]

Wilma is back up to a Cat 3 as it approaches Florida at rapid speed. Naples (where my parents have a condo) looks to be in the center of the bulls-eye. What a freekin' week.

[Buccaneer]

My in-laws in Palm Beach Co. are fully expecting power outages. The relative good news is that it will blow through fast except that it won't have time to weaken much over land.

[Ksyrup]

I think Miami is going to get it worse than Naples if it continues to move more easterly than north. With the counter-clockwise circulation, the south side of the storm is going to be much worse with the storm moving at 15-25 MPH. The Keys and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale could get hit pretty bad.

[Wolfpack]

Wilma's officially re-emerged over the Atlantic and is rapidly heading out to sea. However, hurricane conditions will be persistent for a while longer because of the size of the storm. She's now expected to get sucked into the larger storm that's over the eastern US and become extra-tropical (i.e. cold-core low pressure), similar to a typical winter Nor'easter in the next few days. She's not expected to landfall in the northeast, but the intensity and size will give the coastal areas somewhat of a pounding.

Sifting through the old forecasts, it looks like the folks at NOAA did a bang-up job figuring out the storm track after it entered the Gulf, pegging the NE movement through Florida on roughly the actual track in the middle of last week, which is quite good. However, they struggled with the timing. Wilma's slower pace through the Yucatan and her more westward course than expected caused a lot of headaches.

[Ksyrup]

I agree about the storm track. Most accurate storm track I can remember in years. Here in Tallahassee, we were joking last week that with the recent tendency to underestimate the western movement of most storms (Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, etc.), we were likely in line for Wilma. Never happened. In fact, we didn't get so much as 1 drop of rain thanks to the cold front. We will be dipping into the upper 30s for lows the next few nights, though. Woo hoo!

[Chubby]

my friend was stuck in cancun for the hurricane, she's ok but it sure sucked living off of fake doritos, m and ms, and water while hiding in the shower

[Logan]

my friend was stuck in cancun for the hurricane, she's ok but it sure sucked living off of fake doritos, m and ms, and water while hiding in the shower

Sounds like the 2nd semester of my freshman year.

[Craptacular]

Wilma is intensifying and still accelerating ... winds are up to 125 mph and the whole thing is moving at 47 mph. Good thing it's not expected to get too close to the east coast.

[Galaril]

Well, up here in boston the forecast is winds gusting over 60 mph and up with over two to three inches of rain for the area and heavy snow for interior sections of Upper New York and New England. They are saying it will be heavy snow both in amount and mositure content. There could be power outages as well. Wow, a white halloween.

[Wolfpack]

It's not a perfect copy of "The Perfect Storm", but it's not that far off. Hurricane rising up from the Atlantic gets absorbed into strong low and trailing front pulling off the east coast to form a stronger storm.