jbmagic
10-22-2005, 11:49 AM
i saw this posted in my NAFL league.
Pretty interesting stuff.
I saw this post by Jim over at the IHOF board and found it very interesting. Its not often he talks about how the games work under the hut. It all started with people experienced to many points late in the game.
Jim wrote:
This shows pretty much what I'd expect it to show. FOF might have a little more scoring than the NFL in the last two minutes of the second half. And I'll explain the reason for that.
Here's the data (using Corey's numbers for the IHOF in 2008 - not a perfect representation because we did start the league with a skewed player file).
2Q - 5:00 and later: 14.7% of all NFL points, 14.7% of all IHOF points.
2Q - 2:00 and later: 8.5%, 9.1%
2Q - 1:00 and later: 5.4%, 6.2%
In the IHOF, there is exactly as much scoring late in the first half as there is in the NFL, with a little bit more coming in the last minute. I think FOF is a little more aggressive than the NFL in going for points late in the half.
4Q - 5:00 and later: 10.5% of all NFL points, 11.7% of all IHOF points.
4Q - 2:00 and later: 5.0%, 6.1%
4Q - 1:00 and later: 2.4%, 3.0%
Here, we see more scoring in the last two minutes of IHOF games. I believe this is because the game is likely to try for points even when ahead and in situations where it should do better running out the clock.
In general, more points are scored in the closing moments. Remember that teams are anxious to put points on the board, and will use the clock. And the clock stops on out-of-bounds plays in the last two minutes of the second quarter and the last five minutes of the fourth quarter. So there are more plays run during that time period.
Overall, the observations HFP and others have made just aren't borne out. I think when this happens to your team, it has an impact on you - you become very sensitive to anything that happens in the final minutes.
I've said this before, but it bears repeating.... There is no catch-up code in FOF. The play resolution engine is completely blind to the score and time remaining. Completely.
Now, there are ratings that change in these situations. A coach's motivational rating is applied to player ratings in the fourth quarter of close games (and the first quarter of tied games). The number of fourth-quarter comebacks a quarterback has affects his ratings. As does his two-minute offense rating. That's all. This may add up to about 5% more completions (1 completion in every 20 passes during a close-and-late situation).
The sum total of all these ratings, may, in extreme cases, add as much as 8% to an individual rating (a 60 plays like a 65). Remembering that both teams apply here, and most coaches are somewhere in the G-VG range, which probably limits the effect to a 3% differential.
Normally, I don't reveal much about the inner workings of the game. I felt it was important to give people more confidence that there's nothing hokey going on here. The AI has to take over and call some plays late in each half, there's no way around that and I understand the frustration when it gets that wrong. That's an area that can always stand improvement. But there's no catch-up code or miracles going on in the game.
http://www.fof-ihof.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=5548&start=80
Pretty interesting stuff.
I saw this post by Jim over at the IHOF board and found it very interesting. Its not often he talks about how the games work under the hut. It all started with people experienced to many points late in the game.
Jim wrote:
This shows pretty much what I'd expect it to show. FOF might have a little more scoring than the NFL in the last two minutes of the second half. And I'll explain the reason for that.
Here's the data (using Corey's numbers for the IHOF in 2008 - not a perfect representation because we did start the league with a skewed player file).
2Q - 5:00 and later: 14.7% of all NFL points, 14.7% of all IHOF points.
2Q - 2:00 and later: 8.5%, 9.1%
2Q - 1:00 and later: 5.4%, 6.2%
In the IHOF, there is exactly as much scoring late in the first half as there is in the NFL, with a little bit more coming in the last minute. I think FOF is a little more aggressive than the NFL in going for points late in the half.
4Q - 5:00 and later: 10.5% of all NFL points, 11.7% of all IHOF points.
4Q - 2:00 and later: 5.0%, 6.1%
4Q - 1:00 and later: 2.4%, 3.0%
Here, we see more scoring in the last two minutes of IHOF games. I believe this is because the game is likely to try for points even when ahead and in situations where it should do better running out the clock.
In general, more points are scored in the closing moments. Remember that teams are anxious to put points on the board, and will use the clock. And the clock stops on out-of-bounds plays in the last two minutes of the second quarter and the last five minutes of the fourth quarter. So there are more plays run during that time period.
Overall, the observations HFP and others have made just aren't borne out. I think when this happens to your team, it has an impact on you - you become very sensitive to anything that happens in the final minutes.
I've said this before, but it bears repeating.... There is no catch-up code in FOF. The play resolution engine is completely blind to the score and time remaining. Completely.
Now, there are ratings that change in these situations. A coach's motivational rating is applied to player ratings in the fourth quarter of close games (and the first quarter of tied games). The number of fourth-quarter comebacks a quarterback has affects his ratings. As does his two-minute offense rating. That's all. This may add up to about 5% more completions (1 completion in every 20 passes during a close-and-late situation).
The sum total of all these ratings, may, in extreme cases, add as much as 8% to an individual rating (a 60 plays like a 65). Remembering that both teams apply here, and most coaches are somewhere in the G-VG range, which probably limits the effect to a 3% differential.
Normally, I don't reveal much about the inner workings of the game. I felt it was important to give people more confidence that there's nothing hokey going on here. The AI has to take over and call some plays late in each half, there's no way around that and I understand the frustration when it gets that wrong. That's an area that can always stand improvement. But there's no catch-up code or miracles going on in the game.
http://www.fof-ihof.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=5548&start=80