Texas in #1 in BCS

[Lathum]

http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/5021176

[cthomer5000]

Does Virginia Tech have a chance of catching either of them assuming they all win out?

[BishopMVP]

No.

[Huckleberry]

Sure there's a chance. Not a good one, though.

If Texas has a couple of stinkers between now and then against crap teams, enough voters could drop them below VT to make the difference. This is as good as it gets for Texas in the computers.

[VPI97]

Does Virginia Tech have a chance of catching either of them assuming they all win out?Probably.

If WVU wins out, that's a win against a top 10 team
If Miami's only losses are to us and FSU, they'll likely finish as a top 10 team
If FSU win out until the ACC championship game, they'll likely finish as a top 10 team
If BC wins out after Thursday's game, they have a good chance at finishing as a top 10 team

I find it extremely hard to believe that a team with four possible top 10 wins doesn't have a chance.

[Huckleberry]

That's a lot of ifs. :)

[Swaggs]

Probably.

If WVU wins out, that's a win against a top 10 team
If Miami's only losses are to us and FSU, they'll likely finish as a top 10 team
If FSU win out until the ACC championship game, they'll likely finish as a top 10 team
If BC wins out after Thursday's game, they have a good chance at finishing as a top 10 team

I find it extremely hard to believe that a team with four possible top 10 wins doesn't have a chance.

I believe you might be right, particularly if some of the Pac 10 teams come back to Earth a bit. It would be very interesting if the top 3 remain undefeated and USC is the team that is left out.

[VPI97]

That's a lot of ifs. :)Sure, but it's a reasonable expectation when you look at see what the schedule is like for those teams. In all those games that are if's, the four teams I listed should be favored. It's a lot of games, but it's not impossible to think that they'll all win out.

And the end result would look pretty good to the computers.

[st.cronin]

It would be very interesting if the top 3 remain undefeated and USC is the team that is left out.

That would be effin' GREAT. Actually, I can't think of a scenario that would make me happier.

[Raiders Army]

Texas

[Huckleberry]

Sure, but it's a reasonable expectation when you look at see what the schedule is like for those teams. In all those games that are if's, the four teams I listed should be favored. It's a lot of games, but it's not impossible to think that they'll all win out.

And the end result would look pretty good to the computers.
True enough. But while we're throwing ifs around, Texas could finish with two Top 10 wins as well in Ohio State and Texas Tech. And a win over a Top 15 team in the Big 12 Championship Game. The computers still like Colorado a lot. If they win out and then lose to Texas, they will finish close to the Top 15 with losses to Texas twice and to Miami. And USC could finish with three Top 10 wins in Notre Dame, UCLA, and Oregon. Although Notre Dame isn't as liked as OSU by the computers and Oregon just lost their QB. So call it two possibilities overall.

[digamma]

I haven't counted exactly, but it seems like we now have 15-18 teams who will be in the top ten.

[VPI97]

I haven't counted exactly, but it seems like we now have 15-18 teams who will be in the top ten.:)


All that means is that it's still wide open. The Hokies are down right now, but if we win out, I like our chances.

[digamma]

:)

but if we win out, I like our chances.
Yeah, that's all you can ask for.

I'll pull for Ga. Tech to win out to be the 19th top ten team, as well.http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Swaggs]

huh?

I'm glad you caught that before he deleted it :D

[vtbub]

I'm glad you caught that before he deleted it :D

D'oh.

[sovereignstar]

I'm glad you caught that before he deleted it :D

Oh shi.. the evidence is evaporating!!

[bhlloy]

I can't say this really bothers me. Based on the season so far, Texas almost certainly deserve to be #1. Although it's ironic that a win over a very overrated team has put them there finally.

If VPI's predictions come true, then VT have a shot for sure. I can't see the voters leaving USC out though.

[Raiders Army]

Is anyone else finding that the fact that it's fox news on msn.com strange?

[Honolulu_Blue]

I can't say this really bothers me. Based on the season so far, Texas almost certainly deserve to be #1. Although it's ironic that a win over a very overrated team has put them there finally.

If VPI's predictions come true, then VT have a shot for sure. I can't see the voters leaving USC out though.
If USC goes undefeated there is no way they get left out. That would be an effin' Travesty.

[kcchief19]

Probably.

If WVU wins out, that's a win against a top 10 team
If Miami's only losses are to us and FSU, they'll likely finish as a top 10 team
If FSU win out until the ACC championship game, they'll likely finish as a top 10 team
If BC wins out after Thursday's game, they have a good chance at finishing as a top 10 team

I find it extremely hard to believe that a team with four possible top 10 wins doesn't have a chance. Even if those things happen, it still wouldn't be enough. The new BCS formula is designed to get the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the human polls in the championship games. The computer polls are primarily there for show. If you look down the list, the top 10 teams are are largely in rank where they are in the human polls. It took Texas being ranked No. 1 in five computer polls and No. 2 in the sixth to overtake USC -- and if they were No. 2 in a second poll I think USC would have remained No. 1. Virginia Tech would have to be ranked ahead of Texas on probably every computer poll to get the No. 2 spot, and the No. 1 spot in the new BCS is impossible without being No. 1 or No. 2 in the human polls.

Virginia Tech's best hope at not getting screwed over repeatedly is to finish undefeated and hope the SEC winner comes out undefeated and we have four perfect teams with USC and Texas. Then the NCAA and the BCS will get a nice big shitburger to eat and maybe we can finally get a playoff.

There. The playoff begging had to be said by somebody. http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

[bhlloy]

Yeah, I meant to say "or Texas". I think it's going to be hard for the voters to get over the mentality of USC and Texas being the primetime teams, and that being a national championship matchup. Kinda like Auburn being left out in favour of of an Oklahoma who were coming off a bad loss last year. Is that a fair point?

[MrBug708]

If SC finishes the year undefeated and is left out of the NC game, I'm sure that would kill the BCS for good. The streak would have reached the 30's in that case.

[kingfc22]

If USC goes undefeated there is no way they get left out. That would be an effin' Travesty.

Amen to that. Texas beat Texas Tech, a team that EVERYONE knew was overrated. Oh and they finally beat OU. Woo Hoohttp://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

[cthomer5000]

Unbelievable... on ESPN they're already up in arms about Texas passing USC in the standings. :rolleyes:

[Huckleberry]

Amen to that. Texas beat Texas Tech, a team that EVERYONE knew was overrated. Oh and they finally beat OU. Woo Hoohttp://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
I see you're from California. How did it go the last time a Pac-10 team took on that overrated Texas Tech squad?

http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

[Huckleberry]

Anyway, here's something:

Using Sagarin's predictor ratings and his homefield advantage, I simulated the rest of the season for wins and losses. I manually added the conference championship games and simmed those as well. If the season were to progress in perfect agreement according to those ratings, here is the final Colley Matrix after the conference championship games:


Rk Team Rating W L
1 Southern Cal 0.990427 12 0
2 Texas 0.990027 12 0
3 Virginia Tech 0.982860 12 0
4 Penn St. 0.959892 10 1
5 LSU 0.896810 10 1
6 Ohio State 0.893766 9 2
7 Oregon 0.882381 9 1
8 Miami (FL) 0.836754 9 2
9 Notre Dame 0.833838 9 2
10 UCLA 0.830422 10 1
11 Wisconsin 0.815323 10 2
12 Texas Tech 0.812368 8 1
13 Colorado 0.805807 9 3
14 Minnesota 0.801408 8 3
15 Florida 0.799284 9 3
16 Boston College 0.798294 9 2
17 Alabama 0.794008 9 2
18 Georgia 0.793603 9 2
19 TCU 0.790257 10 1
20 Michigan 0.781611 7 4
21 West Virginia 0.767560 8 2
22 Auburn 0.761834 8 2
23 Florida St. 0.760798 8 3
24 Northwestern 0.728146 7 4
25 Louisville 0.721999 9 2


Thought I'd post it. I disagree with Sagarin's ratings on several games, but just used them for this exercise.

edit - Fixed for the Florida/Georgia mixup in the SEC Championship Game.

[Craptacular]

Yeah, the biggest concern is with his (Sagarin's) rankings of Georgia and Alabama. Here is how the top 5 in SEC shape up in his Predictor standings.

Auburn, #7, 87.27
LSU, #8, 86.98
Florida, #19, 82.92
Georgia, #24, 81.88
Alabama, #29, 78.64

Thus, Auburn and LSU should beat any of the other three on the road. Remember, Alabama pasted Florida. How the hell did Auburn get such a high predictor score? They haven't beaten anyone decent, and lost to one very good team and one OK team.

I'll probably post some Crappy (TM) BCS analysis later, but I think the biggest controversy would occur if USC or Texas lost, Va Tech won out, and Georgia and Alabama ran the table leading up to the SEC title game.

[oliegirl]

Anyway, here's something:

Using Sagarin's predictor ratings and his homefield advantage, I simulated the rest of the season for wins and losses. I manually added the conference championship games and simmed those as well. If the season were to progress in perfect agreement according to those ratings, here is the final Colley Matrix after the conference championship games:


Rk Team Rating W L
1 Southern Cal 0.990239 12 0
2 Texas 0.990018 12 0
3 Virginia Tech 0.982891 12 0
4 Penn St. 0.959885 10 1
5 LSU 0.896259 10 1
6 Ohio State 0.893789 9 2
7 Oregon 0.882343 9 1
8 Miami (FL) 0.836762 9 2
9 Notre Dame 0.833892 9 2
10 UCLA 0.830415 10 1
11 Florida 0.828773 9 2
12 Wisconsin 0.815304 10 2
13 Texas Tech 0.812345 8 1
14 Colorado 0.805853 9 3
15 Minnesota 0.801413 8 3
16 Boston College 0.798515 9 2
17 Alabama 0.795838 9 2
18 TCU 0.790678 10 1
19 Michigan 0.781602 7 4
20 West Virginia 0.767571 8 2
21 Georgia 0.766469 9 3
22 Florida St. 0.763127 8 3
23 Auburn 0.759213 8 2
24 Northwestern 0.728129 7 4
25 Louisville 0.721943 9 2


Thought I'd post it. I disagree with Sagarin's ratings on several games, but just used them for this exercise.


I don't understand how Georgia could fall from 4th to 21st in this...please explain!

[Craptacular]

I don't understand how Georgia could fall from 4th to 21st in this...please explain!
Oliegirl, in this scenario, Georgia loses to Florida and Auburn, and then loses to LSU in the SEC title game. Although, Huckleberry, in this case, wouldn't Florida go to the SEC title game instead of Georgia?

[BishopMVP]

Even if those things happen, it still wouldn't be enough. The new BCS formula is designed to get the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the human polls in the championship games. The computer polls are primarily there for show. If you look down the list, the top 10 teams are are largely in rank where they are in the human polls. It took Texas being ranked No. 1 in five computer polls and No. 2 in the sixth to overtake USC -- and if they were No. 2 in a second poll I think USC would have remained No. 1. Virginia Tech would have to be ranked ahead of Texas on probably every computer poll to get the No. 2 spot, and the No. 1 spot in the new BCS is impossible without being No. 1 or No. 2 in the human polls.

Virginia Tech's best hope at not getting screwed over repeatedly is to finish undefeated and hope the SEC winner comes out undefeated and we have four perfect teams with USC and Texas. Then the NCAA and the BCS will get a nice big shitburger to eat and maybe we can finally get a playoff.

There. The playoff begging had to be said by somebody. http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/smile.gifYup. Basically there is no way USC wins out and isn't still ranked #1 in the human polls. That's enough to get them in. Then VT would have to jump an undefeated Texas team, which is not going to happen in the human polls.

If it set up where VT is #1 in all of the computer polls it still wouldn't be enough to jump Texas or USC unless at least half the voters switched VT to #2. Which won't happen.

Go playoffs.

[Huckleberry]

Oliegirl, in this scenario, Georgia loses to Florida and Auburn, and then loses to LSU in the SEC title game. Although, Huckleberry, in this case, wouldn't Florida go to the SEC title game instead of Georgia? Good point. I'll re-run it.

Fixed it above

[kingfc22]

I see you're from California. How did it go the last time a Pac-10 team took on that overrated Texas Tech squad?

http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
They haven't even played a Pac-10 team this year.

[Craptacular]

the No. 1 spot in the new BCS is impossible without being No. 1 or No. 2 in the human polls. This is actually not true, and it brings up a good point that some people may be missing.

The human poll components are based on the percentage of total points that each team receives. The actual place (#1, 2, etc) means nothing. So, theoretically, you could have teams that are similarly ranked 1, 2, 3 in both polls, but only be a very small fraction apart. In that case, the computers could make the difference, and could bump the #3 team in the human polls to #1 overall.

[ISiddiqui]

Anyway, here's something:

Using Sagarin's predictor ratings and his homefield advantage, I simulated the rest of the season for wins and losses. I manually added the conference championship games and simmed those as well. If the season were to progress in perfect agreement according to those ratings, here is the final Colley Matrix after the conference championship games:


Rk Team Rating W L
1 Southern Cal 0.990427 12 0
2 Texas 0.990027 12 0
3 Virginia Tech 0.982860 12 0
4 Penn St. 0.959892 10 1
5 LSU 0.896810 10 1
6 Ohio State 0.893766 9 2
7 Oregon 0.882381 9 1
8 Miami (FL) 0.836754 9 2
9 Notre Dame 0.833838 9 2
10 UCLA 0.830422 10 1
11 Wisconsin 0.815323 10 2
12 Texas Tech 0.812368 8 1
13 Colorado 0.805807 9 3
14 Minnesota 0.801408 8 3
15 Florida 0.799284 9 3
16 Boston College 0.798294 9 2
17 Alabama 0.794008 9 2
18 Georgia 0.793603 9 2
19 TCU 0.790257 10 1
20 Michigan 0.781611 7 4
21 West Virginia 0.767560 8 2
22 Auburn 0.761834 8 2
23 Florida St. 0.760798 8 3
24 Northwestern 0.728146 7 4
25 Louisville 0.721999 9 2


Thought I'd post it. I disagree with Sagarin's ratings on several games, but just used them for this exercise.

edit - Fixed for the Florida/Georgia mixup in the SEC Championship Game.Looking at West Virginia's schedule, who do you have them losing to? UConn?

[Craptacular]

Looking at West Virginia's schedule, who do you have them losing to? UConn?
According to Sagarin's Predictor, South Florida would win at home versus West Virginia.

[ISiddiqui]

According to Sagarin's Predictor, South Florida would win at home versus West Virginia.Hmmmm...

[Huckleberry]

They haven't even played a Pac-10 team this year.
I didn't say this year's Tech team.

Exactly what tells you they're overrated this year but weren't last year when they put a beatdown on the Pac-10's #2 team?

[Vegas Vic]

In keeping with a ritual that has been established the past two years, this now needs to be repeated ad nausem through the Big XII Championship:

"This Texas team looks like it could be the best team of all-time. Nobody will be able to stop them this year." ;)

[Solecismic]

Overall, I'd give Virginia Tech the schedule edge, and I think that will bear out in my rankings in the end (though I have SoCal #1, VTech #2, Georgia #3 and Texas #7).

The Big XII is down this year, and while Texas looked impossible to beat with a 12-0 record early on, it's not so invincible now. Voters are less flexible, however, and that huge win by Texas at Ohio State essentially means they'll keep gaining as long as they look good.

And no matter what USC does, the voters will never allow them not to play to for the title as long as they remain undefeated. They could play a Louisville schedule and still be #1.

I wonder, however, what happens if UCLA runs the table and beats USC. So far, they look like pretenders with a very, very favorable schedule (I think Stanford could well beat them this coming weekend). Do they essentially replace USC? I could see Virginia Tech getting left out in any number of scenarios, since there still could be four unbeatens at the end with legitimate title claims.

[GrantDawg]

If USC goes undefeated there is no way they get left out. That would be an effin' Travesty.
Yes. A sweet, sweet travesty. A beautiful, wonderfull travesty. A magicial "how do you like the BcS now" travesty.

[ISiddiqui]

Yes. A sweet, sweet travesty. A beautiful, wonderfull travesty. A magicial "how do you like the BcS now" travesty.
Though it'd DEFINITELY have to be coupled with an AP poll declaring USC #1.

[GrantDawg]

Though it'd DEFINITELY have to be coupled with an AP poll declaring USC #1.
Yes. That would be too sweet. On top of the fact the MNC game will be played in the Rose Bowl. A undefeated Pac-10 team not playing in the Rose Bowl would just be too sweet. It would only be better if there was an undefeated Big 10 team that was shut out as well.

[oliegirl]

Oliegirl, in this scenario, Georgia loses to Florida and Auburn, and then loses to LSU in the SEC title game. Although, Huckleberry, in this case, wouldn't Florida go to the SEC title game instead of Georgia?

As long as this is just a scenario and doesn't occur in real life I'll be OK...otherwise - there might be a FOFC funeral after I kill myself over Ga falling to 21st after the great season they have had so far!

[Mr. Wednesday]

If SC finishes the year undefeated and is left out of the NC game, I'm sure that would kill the BCS for good. The streak would have reached the 30's in that case.Only the voters know that... as far as the computer rankings are concerned, the streak is at six (or is it seven?).

The "problem" with the computer rankings is that they're unbiased -- they apply whichever metrics have been judged to be important without preconceptions, and when the results run afoul of the preconceptions, "the computers" get blamed, instead of people thinking critically about it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Yeah, the biggest concern is with his (Sagarin's) rankings of Georgia and Alabama. Here is how the top 5 in SEC shape up in his Predictor standings.

Auburn, #7, 87.27
LSU, #8, 86.98
Florida, #19, 82.92
Georgia, #24, 81.88
Alabama, #29, 78.64

Thus, Auburn and LSU should beat any of the other three on the road. Remember, Alabama pasted Florida. How the hell did Auburn get such a high predictor score? They haven't beaten anyone decent, and lost to one very good team and one OK team.

I'll probably post some Crappy (TM) BCS analysis later, but I think the biggest controversy would occur if USC or Texas lost, Va Tech won out, and Georgia and Alabama ran the table leading up to the SEC title game. The predictor takes scoring into account, and is not used for the BCS. 'Bama is getting killed for barely beating Ole Miss, I think. In contrast, the predictor loves ND because the Irish score a lot of points against anybody not named Michigan and both losses are close and to good teams.

[MrBug708]

I see you're from California. How did it go the last time a Pac-10 team took on that overrated Texas Tech squad?

http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

I do know that Jeff Tedford is going to rank Texas 117th in the final BCS Poll. :D

[MrBug708]

Overall, I'd give Virginia Tech the schedule edge, and I think that will bear out in my rankings in the end (though I have SoCal #1, VTech #2, Georgia #3 and Texas #7).

The Big XII is down this year, and while Texas looked impossible to beat with a 12-0 record early on, it's not so invincible now. Voters are less flexible, however, and that huge win by Texas at Ohio State essentially means they'll keep gaining as long as they look good.

And no matter what USC does, the voters will never allow them not to play to for the title as long as they remain undefeated. They could play a Louisville schedule and still be #1.

I wonder, however, what happens if UCLA runs the table and beats USC. So far, they look like pretenders with a very, very favorable schedule (I think Stanford could well beat them this coming weekend). Do they essentially replace USC? I could see Virginia Tech getting left out in any number of scenarios, since there still could be four unbeatens at the end with legitimate title claims.

Let's hope Jim, Let's hope :D

[Warhammer]

The thing I wonder about is why bother having the computers if the human polls mean so much? Why not go back to the old way of doing things with just one human poll? Rather than have this 1 v 2 with 3 being left in the cold, bring back the old bowl tie ins.

I used to love watching all the bowls with 1 v 4. 2 v 3, and 5 v whoever. If #1 lost, #2 or 3 had to hope they dominated to wind up #1, otherwise #4 would move up. Then there was the one year where nearly everyone in the top 5 lost and the #5 team moved up to #1. Geez, I miss those days....

[Craptacular]

Just some numbers for people to chew on. Sorry if the formatting doesn't turn out well. The numbers in parentheses in the previous opponent column are the losses for strength of schedule purposes, as the SOS calculations generally don't include the games each corresponding team played in. Since each team is 7-0, you can subtract 7 losses from their opponents' combined record. Obviously, these numbers do not reflect the future performance of past or future opponents, which will still affect the SOS.

The last six columns are the actual computer numbers, with rankings in parentheses. Remember, the computers are treated like a 4-person human poll, after throwing out the high and low rankings for each team. In essence, a one position rise/fall in one computer poll makes a .01 difference in the overall computer rating, and a .0033 difference in the overall BCS rating, assuming that computer poll is not a team's high or low ranking. This is equivalent to 28.5 points in the Harris poll and 15.5 points in the USA Today coaches poll. For example, if USC was actually 3rd in the Ken Massey ratings instead of 4th, their BCS rating would go up to .9789, and would jump ahead of Texas.

I may post some of my thoughts on these numbers later, but I figured I'd throw everything on the table for people to see and form their own opinions.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 690pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="921"> <col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 59pt;" width="79"> <col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="71"> <col style="width: 50pt;" width="67"> <col span="3" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Team</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">BCS</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Record</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Prev Opp</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 59pt;" width="79">Fut Opp</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Harris %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">USA %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Comp %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">A&H</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 53pt;" width="71">RB</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 50pt;" width="67">CM</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">KM</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">JS</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">RW</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Texas</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97629999999999995">0.9763</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">27-22(15)</td> <td class="xl26">15-13(+ CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.9657">0.9657</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.96319999999999995">0.9632</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">1.000</td> <td class="xl26">.850 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">310.747 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">.941233 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">2.808 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">100.21 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">8.702 (1)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">USC</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97560000000000002">0.9756</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">22-28(21)</td> <td class="xl26">25-9</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99329999999999996">0.9933</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99350000000000005">0.9935</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.94">0.940</td> <td class="xl26">.841 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">308.528 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">.881628 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">2.519 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">100.42 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">8.517 (2)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Va Tech</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.91639999999999999">0.9164</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">23-25(18)</td> <td class="xl26">18-8(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.91790000000000005">0.9179</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.92130000000000001">0.9213</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.91">0.910</td> <td class="xl26">.831 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">298.124 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">.884038 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">2.529 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">97.00 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">8.293 (3)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Georgia</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.8679">0.8679</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">23-26(19)</td> <td class="xl26">15-11(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.86829999999999996">0.8683</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.87549999999999994">0.8755</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.86">0.860</td> <td class="xl26">.810 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">303.257 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">.888420 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">2.466 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">93.88 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">7.819 (5)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Alabama</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.85129999999999995">0.8513</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">23-23(16)</td> <td class="xl26">14-12(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.83009999999999995">0.8301</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.82389999999999997">0.8239</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.9">0.900</td> <td class="xl26">.813 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">271.973 (8)</td> <td class="xl26">.902929 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">2.587 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">94.75 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">7.949 (4)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">UCLA</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.73839999999999995">0.7384</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">21-29(22)</td> <td class="xl26">15-12</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.74229999999999996">0.7423</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.7329">0.7329</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.74">0.740</td> <td class="xl26">.804 (6)</td> <td class="xl26">274.039 (7)</td> <td class="xl26">.853609 (7)</td> <td class="xl26">2.375 (7)</td> <td class="xl26">89.49 (9)</td> <td class="xl26">7.300 (9)
</td> </tr></tbody> </table>

[miami_fan]

The thing I wonder about is why bother having the computers if the human polls mean so much? Why not go back to the old way of doing things with just one human poll? Rather than have this 1 v 2 with 3 being left in the cold, bring back the old bowl tie ins.

I used to love watching all the bowls with 1 v 4. 2 v 3, and 5 v whoever. If #1 lost, #2 or 3 had to hope they dominated to wind up #1, otherwise #4 would move up. Then there was the one year where nearly everyone in the top 5 lost and the #5 team moved up to #1. Geez, I miss those days....

I was wondering the exact opposite. If the computers are going to give us an "unbiased" appraisal as to who the top two teams are, why do we need the human element?

[Mr. Wednesday]

The perception is that people are more comfortable living with their biases than confronting them. I don't know if that's true, but the handling of the BCS is consistent with that belief.

[primelord]

True enough. But while we're throwing ifs around, Texas could finish with two Top 10 wins as well in Ohio State and Texas Tech. And a win over a Top 15 team in the Big 12 Championship Game. The computers still like Colorado a lot. If they win out and then lose to Texas, they will finish close to the Top 15 with losses to Texas twice and to Miami. And USC could finish with three Top 10 wins in Notre Dame, UCLA, and Oregon. Although Notre Dame isn't as liked as OSU by the computers and Oregon just lost their QB. So call it two possibilities overall.
The biggest flaw I see in all of your commenst so far is the failure to realize that Missouri is going to win the Big 12 North. :)

[MrBug708]

If UCLA beats SC they'll pass VT, Of course that's a longshot to happen

[VPI97]

If UCLA beats SC they'll pass VTNo they won't

[VPI97]

late dola -

Beamer says what I tried to explain earlier.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2204125

[MrBug708]

I'd be willing to bet on it as UCLA's win over SC would be more inpressive over VT's win.

[VPI97]

I'd be willing to bet on it as UCLA's win over SC would be more inpressive over VT's win.Sure a win over USC would be more impressive than any other win by anyone...but they don't give out Rose Bowl spots based on one game. Right now you guys have one win over a top 25 team (Cal - currently 24 in the AP) and they're going to drop out either this week or next. Maybe Oklahoma or Oregon State win out to get back in the rankings, but based on their schedules, I wouldn't bet on it. Maybe if you guys would have played Oregon that would have been a big factor. But I just don't see it with your current schedule.

I really don't think an undefeated UCLA that finishes the year with one top 25 win would have enough juice in the computer polls to jump an undefeated ACC or SEC champ. And that's what they would have to do...you're not going to see the Bruins jump a team in the human polls who won either the SEC or ACC Championship game on the same day. In the end, a win over USC wouldn't get it done over a Georgia, Alabama or Virginia Tech who would have multiple top 10 wins on their resume, as well as having played in a tougher conference.

[rexallllsc]

Sure a win over USC would be more impressive than any other win by anyone...but they don't give out Rose Bowl spots based on one game. Right now you guys have one win over a top 25 team (Cal - currently 24 in the AP) and they're going to drop out either this week or next. Maybe Oklahoma or Oregon State win out to get back in the rankings, but based on their schedules, I wouldn't bet on it. Maybe if you guys would have played Oregon that would have been a big factor. But I just don't see it with your current schedule.

I really don't think an undefeated UCLA that finishes the year with one top 25 win would have enough juice in the computer polls to jump an undefeated ACC or SEC champ. And that's what they would have to do...you're not going to see the Bruins jump a team in the human polls who won either the SEC or ACC Championship game on the same day. In the end, a win over USC wouldn't get it done over a Georgia, Alabama or Virginia Tech who would have multiple top 10 wins on their resume, as well as having played in a tougher conference.

That would be pretty sad/funny if a team went undefeated, beat the #1 team to end the regular season (thus endin a 30+ game win streak), and didn't get into the NC game because "VaTech played in a tougher conference"

If VaTech and UGa ended up undefeated along with Texas, should the first two play, since they're both from "a tougher conference"?

[VPI97]

That would be pretty sad/funny if a team went undefeated, beat the #1 team to end the regular season (thus endin a 30+ game win streak), and didn't get into the NC game because "VaTech played in a tougher conference"

If VaTech and UGa ended up undefeated along with Texas, should the first two play, since they're both from "a tougher conference"?Did you bother to read my post beyond one phrase?

But to answer your question...should UGA and VT play solely because they play in the SEC and ACC? No. But if Texas finished the year with just one top 25 win and was ranked behind both UGA and VT, then yes, I would expect Georgia and Virginia Tech to play in the Rose Bowl. You don't agree?

[MrBug708]

I dont think that was his point though. It's all moot as it stands of course, but if UCLA holds court over the #1 team in the nation in their own stadium, on Championship Day, I think it would be enough to convince the voters to put the Bruins at #2, especially the star power in the game.

[Swaggs]

I read yesterday that in each season since the BCS poll was established, the two teams that were ranked first and second in its initial poll have never ended up finishing in the top 2 spots.

[cthomer5000]

After taking a decent look at the current BCS standings.... i just dont see how Va Tech can make it.

Even if they finish a consensus 3 in the human polls and a consesus 2 in the computer polls, it wont be enough. In fact even if they were a full-blown #1 in the computers, it wouldn't be enough, Texas would still edge them out (assuming Texas was a consensus #3 in the computers).

Their only hope would appear to be getting to #1 in at least 2 computer polls (and #2 in at least 5) and start cutting into the 2nd place votes Texas is getting in the human polls.

[Joe]

That would be pretty sad/funny if a team went undefeated, beat the #1 team to end the regular season (thus endin a 30+ game win streak), and didn't get into the NC game because "VaTech played in a tougher conference"

If VaTech and UGa ended up undefeated along with Texas, should the first two play, since they're both from "a tougher conference"?

Well... we can throw that UGa scenario out.

[VPI97]

In fact even if they were a full-blown #1 in the computers, it wouldn't be enough, Texas would still edge them out (assuming Texas was a consensus #3 in the computers). That's the kicker... Ken Massey was on a VT board a week or so ago and indicated that should the four teams win out (his example was assuming an undefeated SEC champ of either UGA or Bama...obviously now the only hope is Alabama), then VT would be a clear #1 in the computers due to SOS, with USC and the SEC school fighting for the #2 and #3 spots, with Texas being a consensus #4. In that scenario, VT could handle anything the human polls throw at us.

Now, assuming Alabama falters, the CPU lead over Texas would equate to 1.0 ranking spots in the two human polls...right now they're about 1.2. That should drop with the Georgia loss, since some pollsters had them over us, and I'd also expect for some of the voters to drop Texas from #1 after the game today. Almost every pollster has USC and Texas #1 and #2 in either order...my hope is that convincing wins over Miami and in the ACC title game, coupled with Texas playing nobodies would lead to some voters marking their ballot at seasons end with us #2 and Texas #3. If a couple dozen voters did that, it would negate the points Texas gets from it's current #1 votes...and VT would jump them due to the computers.

Human voters are notoriously stubborn, but since Texas has gained some ground on USC in the polls, I find it hard to believe that VT can't gain ground on Texas if we win out against our schedule.

[mauchow]

College football is going to be absolutely insane all the way to the finish. USC still has a tough road ahead of them if they want to stay unbeaten. Their last four games are all against legit teams. Stanford nearly won today against an undefeated UCLA team. Granted, USC will probably win the rest of them because they're obvoiusly superior. The USC-UCLA will be a great game if they're both undefeated up to that point. Doubtful though.

USC's Schedule:
Nov 5 Stanford TBA
Nov 12 @California TBA
Nov 19 Fresno St. 10:15pm
Dec 3 UCLA 4:30pm

Texas gets the benefit of an easy schedule to finish out the season, minus the conference championship, which could end up being a cupcake anways, Colorado/Mizzou.. Whoop-dee doo. Texas will likely finish the season undefeated, thus allowing them to be in the championship game; but I've seen weirder things happen.

Nov 5 @Baylor TBA
Nov 12 Kansas TBA
Nov 25 @Texas A&M 12:00pm
Conference Championship Game

Virginia Tech will have the toughest time in finishing undefeated, IMO. We saw today that UNC could play with Miami, even if it was only for two quarters...much like Okla St, eh? If VT wins out, they've got a good shot at getting the BCS Championship game. I honestly cannot see VT beating Miami, Virginia, UNC, and FSU to finish out the season. But like I said before, I've seen weirder things happen.

Nov 5 Miami (Fla.) TBA
Nov 19 @Virginia TBA
Nov 26 North Carolina TBA
Conf. Champ

Alabama is also another team that I don't believe will finish the season undefeated. They'll handle MSU no problem, but then you've got LSU and Auburn on the road. Not to mention the conference championship game against either Georgia or Florida. If they too, win out, they'll have a good case for the NC game as well. This is why we take one week at a time...

Nov 5 @Mississippi St. TBA
Nov 12 LSU TBA
Nov 19 @Auburn TBA
Conf. Champ

I'd go through to 10 talking about this, but it'd be pretty much the same thing for every team. They can all lose another game, because that's college football... But the main reason for this, is my hopes for Wisconsin getting a BCS bid. Wisconsin will have obviously, the biggest game of the season against Penn St. next weekend, which will likely decide the conference champions, unless one of them falters against weaker opponents in the final week of the season. Ohio State is still in it, but they still face Northwestern and Michigan. Those will be good games, moreso the Michigan game.

If Wisconsin wins next week, I imagine they'll jump a few more spots plus the ones they'll be gaining this week for Boston College's loss. They may even take over Oregon's spot since they were nil this week. So let's say on Tuesday Wisconsin is #11 in the BCS and at best they'll be #10. Next week, if Wisconsin wins , VTU wins, Appalachian St. vs LSU(okay, joke), and it's possible that a struggling Tennesee team beats Notre Dame, but I'll say no for whatever reason.

Wisconsin will then move ahead of PSU and Miami, giving them #8 in two weeks and possible 7th! Man, I could go on all night with all this speculation. I love college football!!!!

Wisconsin will then basically automatically move into 7th that following week with LSU and Alabama playing the following week. The pieces will fall into place for Wisconsin to get a BCS bid as long as they take care of their own business....

[cthomer5000]

Human voters are notoriously stubborn, but since Texas has gained some ground on USC in the polls, I find it hard to believe that VT can't gain ground on Texas if we win out against our schedule.
Alabama basically hurts VT either way. They're probably stealing some votes from VT in the human polls, but if they keep winning its possible that they are another wedge that can get between VT and Texas in the computer polls (they were 2nd in two comptuer rankings). So Bama wins help in the computer polls and hurt in the human pollls, and a loss would do the opposite.

Has their been any talk about Texas finishing lower than a consensus #3 in the computers? If so then i think the odds are much greater that VT can catch them. If not I just dont see it... .

I think it would take a consensus #1 in the computer polls (1.000 computer rating), Texas slipping to a consensus 3 in the computer polls (.940 or lower computer rating), and VT getting to about .930 in both human polls. The more I look at i the more i think its possible.. What needs to happen:

1. USC needs to start sucking up ALL the #1 votes. Every vote that Texas gets for #1 means another #2 vote Va Tech needs to even things out.

2. Virginia Tech needs to start gaining ground on Texas... I think they'll need to finish with about 25% of the second place votes in each human poll.

3. Virginia Tech needs to be #1 in at least 5 computer rankings

4. Texas needs to average out to #3 in the computer rankings (.940 or lower computer score).


I just did the math and came up with a pretty reasonable scenario for Virginia Tech just barely edging out Texas. Assuming all the teams keep winning, appearance will very much matter for both Texas and Virginia Tech. They're going to need to be out their selling themselves to the voters each weekend.

[VPI97]

mauboy, it's not VTU


:)

[JonInMiddleGA]

... I find it hard to believe that VT can't gain ground on Texas if we win out against our schedule.

Time will tell, but I honestly don't believe the schedule you're playing is going to be one that garners enough respect to overtake anybody ahead of you ... especially not if you win out against it.

That's not a knock on the Hokies either, it's just that each time you beat one of these teams, they add another loss to their resume & look less impressive.

Otherwise, you'll have very good win over Miami & presumably FSU (in the conf. C'ship) wins over fairly good BC & WVU, and then there's the lump of so-so or worse teams.

I just don't believe that's appreciably better enough than Texas schedule to create a jump over them in the polls. FSU & Miami both have to win out against the rest of their schedules & then maybe there's a chance, but otherwise ... I just don't see it.

Just my .02, time will of course reveal all.

[cthomer5000]

and yeah, it looks like Alabama would be very much in it with a Virginia Tech or Texas loss. They're very high in a few computer polls, and should jump even higher with the Georgia loss.

[cthomer5000]

Time will tell, but I honestly don't believe the schedule you're playing is going to be one that garners enough respect to overtake anybody ahead of you ... especially not if you win out against it.

That's not a knock on the Hokies either, it's just that each time you beat one of these teams, they add another loss to their resume & look less impressive.

Otherwise, you'll have very good win over Miami & presumably FSU (in the conf. C'ship) wins over fairly good BC & WVU, and then there's the lump of so-so or worse teams.

I just don't believe that's appreciably better enough than Texas schedule to create a jump over them in the polls. FSU & Miami both have to win out against the rest of their schedules & then maybe there's a chance, but otherwise ... I just don't see it.

Just my .02, time will of course reveal all. They don't need to jump them in the polls, the just need to convince about 25% of the voters that they're #2 in the country.

edit: The actual #2 vs. #3 doesn't matter, the point totals matter. VT just needs to narrow the gap between themselves and Texas. Im guessing they pick up a few points in the new rankings.

[VPI97]

They're probably stealing some votes from VT in the human polls, but if they keep winning its possible that they are another wedge that can get between VT and Texas in the computer polls (they were 2nd in two comptuer rankings). So Bama wins help in the computer polls and hurt in the human pollls, and a loss would do the opposite.A guy on the VT board had broken down the vote totals into probably number of #1, #2, #3, etc votes...from that, it appears that only USC, Texas & Georgia were ahead of us on anyone's ballot.

1. USC needs to start sucking up ALL the #1 votes. Every vote that Texas gets for #1 means another #2 vote Va Tech needs to even things out.

2. Virginia Tech needs to start gaining ground on Texas... I think they'll need to finish with about 25% of the second place votes in each human poll.

3. Virginia Tech needs to be #1 in at least 5 computer rankings

4. Texas needs to average out to #3 in the computer rankings (.940 or lower computer score).Yes, yes, yes, yes...except that Texas would have a .920 computer score if they were #3


They're going to need to be out their selling themselves to the voters each weekend....and if that's the case, we lose out. Beamer sat on the ball against BC on Thursday night while Mack Brown went for it on fourth down tonight to get a TD instead of a FG against Ok. State. Beamer isn't going to play that way.

[JonInMiddleGA]

They don't need to jump them in the polls, the just need to convince about 25% of the voters that they're #2 in the country.

I may have missed the number somewhere, but I'm assuming that they don't have very many of the #2 votes right now ... which means that they'd have to "jump" TX in some polls to get them. And I don't see an overall schedule strong enough to justify that at this point, not if somebody doesn't have them there already.

[mauchow]

mauboy, it's not VTU


:)
Hah, true that.

[cthomer5000]

A guy on the VT board had broken down the vote totals into probably number of #1, #2, #3, etc votes...from that, it appears that only USC, Texas & Georgia were ahead of us on anyone's ballot.
Then that is good news, right off the bat you should figure you'll gain those #3 votes you didn't have last week.


Yes, yes, yes, yes...except that Texas would have a .920 computer score if they were #3
You're right, and that's even better news.


...and if that's the case, we lose out. Beamer sat on the ball against BC on Thursday night while Mack Brown went for it on fourth down tonight to get a TD instead of a FG against Ok. State. Beamer isn't going to play that way.
While I apprecaite the sportsmanship element, I think he's going to need someone to explain the seriousness of the situation to him.

[VPI97]

I may have missed the number somewhere, but I'm assuming that they don't have very many of the #2 votes right now ... which means that they'd have to "jump" TX in some polls to get them. And I don't see an overall schedule strong enough to justify that at this point, not if somebody doesn't have them there already.Maybe, maybe not. But knowing the voters on the USA today poll, I wouldn't be surprised to see VT have at least one #1 vote tomorrow.

[cthomer5000]

I may have missed the number somewhere, but I'm assuming that they don't have very many of the #2 votes right now ... which means that they'd have to "jump" TX in some polls to get them. And I don't see an overall schedule strong enough to justify that at this point, not if somebody doesn't have them there already.
Well, it happens week in and week out. USC has been losing and gaining back #1 votes regularly. If Virginia Tech comes out and somehow spanks Miami while Texas struggles against Baylor, I think it's safe to say some voters who are really on the fence would lean Virginia Tech that week.

Virginia Tech is a little bit behind for a #3 in the Harris poll (meaning if you do 114 x 23 they come up short of that number), and just a couple points ahead in the Coaches poll.

Having examined it, Virginia Tech ending up #2 in the BCS poll is much more reasonable than I initially though.

[VPI97]

Maybe, maybe not. But knowing the voters on the USA today poll, I wouldn't be surprised to see VT have at least one #1 vote tomorrow.Told you.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankings?pollId=2

[cthomer5000]

They don't even really need to get any closer to Texas if they can indeed finish at 1.000 in the computers with Texas at .920 (dunno what the possibilities of that are).

[Huckleberry]

The Hokies had one first place vote in the Coaches' Poll last week, too.

[cthomer5000]

The Hokies had one first place vote in the Coaches' Poll last week, too.
not true.

[Huckleberry]

not true.
It's absolutely true. Count the first place votes from the reported poll results.

Week 8

USC 54
Texas 7
VT 1

Week 9

USC 53
Texas 8
VT 0

Week 10

USC 56
Texas 5
VT 1

There are 62 voters in the Coaches' Poll. Last week's poll results only showed 61 first place votes but the same number of total points as always. To me, it's obvious that they simply failed to show the first place vote next to VT.

[Craptacular]

USC picked up .0077 on Texas in the USA Today poll, and .0057 on Texas in the Harris poll, but fell behind Texas in the Sagarin numbers. However, the change in the Sagarin poll alone does not affect the overall BCS rating, as those numbers were thrown out for both teams last week (high and low), and are now tied for the high/low for each team. Of course, we'll wait to see how the other computer numbers shake out. Regardless, Texas can't do any better in the computers, so USC would have to lose positions in the other computer polls that count in their average (if my math is correct, I think USC would need to drop one spot in two polls or two spots in one poll). Otherwise, USC is back at #1.

I still have to ask why I (or anyone) should care at this point in the season. ;)

[Huckleberry]

Most people figured USC would be #1 this week, which they will be.

Virginia Tech will close the gap, helped by Texas' poor first half and Georgia's loss.

[OldGiants]

What would be exceptionally sweet would be for USC, Texas and Va Tech to all go undefeated but for USC to drop down to third because they don't play a conference championship game. Then USC can miss the BCS bowl for the second time in three years and not play for the national title just like in 2003 when LSU won the BCS bowl and USC didn't win a national title, despite claiming they did.

[cartman]

What would be exceptionally sweet would be for USC, Texas and Va Tech to all go undefeated but for USC to drop down to third because they don't play a conference championship game. Then USC can miss the BCS bowl for the second time in three years and not play for the national title just like in 2003 when LSU won the BCS bowl and USC didn't win a national title, despite claiming they did.

Except for the fact that there is no offical NCAA recognized Div 1A national champion. Historically teams have been able to call themselves National Champion if they finished 1st in the various iterations of a nationally recognized coaches or sport writers poll.

[MrBug708]

And the fact the AP ranked them #1, which every other team in the nation whose won an NC via the AP Poll, has also claimed.

[digamma]

Except for the fact that there is no offical NCAA recognized Div 1A national champion. Historically teams have been able to call themselves National Champion if they finished 1st in the various iterations of a nationally recognized coaches or sport writers poll.
Samdari hearts cartman.

[cthomer5000]

Well, no shockers today. USC back at #1, and VT closes the gap slightly.

[Craptacular]

This week's rankings, with last week's posted below that for comparison (again, apologies for format goofiness)

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 720pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="957"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="71"> <col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 59pt;" width="78"> <col style="width: 65pt;" width="86"> <col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 56pt;" width="74"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="70"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 50pt;" width="66"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 53pt;" height="17" width="71">Team</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">BCS</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Record</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">Prev Opp</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 65pt;" width="86">Fut Opp</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Harris %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">USA %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Comp %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">A&H</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">RB</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 53pt;" width="70">CM</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">KM</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 50pt;" width="66">JS</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">RW</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">USC</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97670000000000001">0.9767</td> <td class="xl26">8-0</td> <td class="xl26">27-35(27)</td> <td class="xl26">24-6</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99398230088495576" x:fmla="=2808/2825">0.9940</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99612903225806448" x:fmla="=1544/1550">0.9961</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.94">0.940</td> <td class="xl26">.843 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">312.690 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">.890708 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">2.491 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">99.74 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">8.662 (3)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Texas</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97289999999999999">0.9729</td> <td class="xl26">8-0</td> <td class="xl26">35-28(20)</td> <td class="xl26">13-11(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.96070796460176988" x:fmla="=2714/2825">0.9607</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.95806451612903221" x:fmla="=1485/1550">0.9581</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">1.000</td> <td class="xl26">.853 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">315.681 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">.949558 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">2.807 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">102.44 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">9.083 (1)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Va Tech</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.9294">0.9294</td> <td class="xl26">8-0</td> <td class="xl26">33-29(21)</td> <td class="xl26">13-8(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.92495575221238935" x:fmla="=2613/2825">0.9250</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.9232258064516129" x:fmla="=1431/1550">0.9232</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.94">0.940</td> <td class="xl26">.833 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">307.622 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">.933590 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">2.631 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">99.09 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">8.716 (2)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Alabama</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.86950000000000005">0.8695</td> <td class="xl26">8-0</td> <td class="xl26">27-31(23)</td> <td class="xl26">14-9(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.86831858407079643" x:fmla="=2453/2825">0.8683</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.87032258064516133" x:fmla="=1349/1550">0.8703</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.87">0.870</td> <td class="xl26">.813 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">272.592 (8)</td> <td class="xl26">.882392 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">2.459 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">93.94 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">8.091 (4)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">UCLA</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.78739999999999999">0.7874</td> <td class="xl26">8-0</td> <td class="xl26">26-37(29)</td> <td class="xl26">14-10</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.77805309734513273" x:fmla="=2198/2825">0.7781</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.77419354838709675" x:fmla="=1200/1550">0.7742</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.81">0.810</td> <td class="xl26">.807 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">280.942 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">.876719 (6)</td> <td class="xl26">2.383 (6)</td> <td class="xl26">91.46 (6)</td> <td class="xl26">7.627 (6)</td> </tr></tbody> </table>
<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="252" width="960"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="71"> <col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 59pt;" width="78"> <col style="width: 65pt;" width="86"> <col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 56pt;" width="74"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="70"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 50pt;" width="66"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 53pt;" height="17" width="71">Team</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">BCS</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Record</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">Prev Opp</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 65pt;" width="86">Fut Opp</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Harris %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">USA %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Comp %</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">A&H</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">RB</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 53pt;" width="70">CM</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">KM</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 50pt;" width="66">JS</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">RW</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Texas</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97629999999999995">0.9763</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">27-22(15)</td> <td class="xl26">15-13(+ CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.9657">0.9657</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.96319999999999995">0.9632</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">1.000</td> <td class="xl26">.850 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">310.747 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">.941233 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">2.808 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">100.21 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">8.702 (1)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">USC</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97560000000000002">0.9756</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">22-28(21)</td> <td class="xl26">25-9</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99329999999999996">0.9933</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99350000000000005">0.9935</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.94">0.940</td> <td class="xl26">.841 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">308.528 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">.881628 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">2.519 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">100.42 (1)</td> <td class="xl26">8.517 (2)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Va Tech</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.91639999999999999">0.9164</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">23-25(18)</td> <td class="xl26">18-8(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.91790000000000005">0.9179</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.92130000000000001">0.9213</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.91">0.910</td> <td class="xl26">.831 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">298.124 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">.884038 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">2.529 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">97.00 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">8.293 (3)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Georgia</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.8679">0.8679</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">23-26(19)</td> <td class="xl26">15-11(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.86829999999999996">0.8683</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.87549999999999994">0.8755</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.86">0.860</td> <td class="xl26">.810 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">303.257 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">.888420 (3)</td> <td class="xl26">2.466 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">93.88 (5)</td> <td class="xl26">7.819 (5)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Alabama</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.85129999999999995">0.8513</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">23-23(16)</td> <td class="xl26">14-12(+CC?)</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.83009999999999995">0.8301</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.82389999999999997">0.8239</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.9">0.900</td> <td class="xl26">.813 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">271.973 (8)</td> <td class="xl26">.902929 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">2.587 (2)</td> <td class="xl26">94.75 (4)</td> <td class="xl26">7.949 (4)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">UCLA</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.73839999999999995">0.7384</td> <td class="xl26">7-0</td> <td class="xl26">21-29(22)</td> <td class="xl26">15-12</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.74229999999999996">0.7423</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.7329">0.7329</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.74">0.740</td> <td class="xl26">.804 (6)</td> <td class="xl26">274.039 (7)</td> <td class="xl26">.853609 (7)</td> <td class="xl26">2.375 (7)</td> <td class="xl26">89.49 (9)</td> <td class="xl26">7.300 (9)</td> </tr></tbody> </table> <table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="21" width="8"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="71"> <col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 59pt;" width="78"> <col style="width: 65pt;" width="86"> <col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 56pt;" width="74"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="70"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 50pt;" width="66"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 53pt;" height="17" width="71">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 65pt;" width="86">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 53pt;" width="70">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 50pt;" width="66">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97629999999999995">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.9657">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.96319999999999995">
</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.97560000000000002">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99329999999999996">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.99350000000000005">
</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.94">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.91639999999999999">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.91790000000000005">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.92130000000000001">
</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.91">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.8679">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.86829999999999996">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.87549999999999994">
</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.86">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.85129999999999995">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.83009999999999995">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.82389999999999997">
</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.9">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.73839999999999995">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.74229999999999996">
</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.7329">
</td> <td class="xl27" x:num="00.74">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr></tbody> </table>

[VPI97]

FYI, factoring in the way the human polls stand as of this moment, if VT finishes the season as the CPU #1 and Texas finishes the season as the CPU #3, the Rose Bowl would be VT/USC.

Basically, VT needs for it's past opponents to win and for Texas's opponents to lose.

[OldGiants]

Except for the fact that there is no offical NCAA recognized Div 1A national champion. Historically teams have been able to call themselves National Champion if they finished 1st in the various iterations of a nationally recognized coaches or sport writers poll.
What part of "not play for the national title" didn't you understand?