2005: Looks like Elmo fever will strike again this Christmas.

[WrongWay]

Looks like it will be the new "Elmo knows your name" doll to have parents going crazy this Christmas. This Elmo was released about 3 weeks ago at the beginning of November.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/01/news/funny/elmo.reut/

Elmo also has the required friend, Winnie the Pooh, that no child wants, but will get since their parents did not plan ahead.

Another key to being Christmas's big toy is the wrong version. Last year's doll refereed to as a personalized Elmo will get passed off to a lot of parents as the "Elmo knows your name" doll. Although this version of Elmo will speak your child's name it is not programmed by your computer to know all about your child, their friends, and thier daily schedule.

"Elmo knows your name" started selling on Nov 1, 2005 at 39.99. I picked up 1 at Wal~Mart Friday for 38.88. I noticed that as of yesterday, they were completely sold out of Elmo, but had plenty of Winnie the Poohs left. I see you can purchase Elmo at ebay for between 49.99 and 59.99. I caught Winnie over at Target's website already discounted by $8.00, but Elmo's price was holding firm as of yesterday.

And, lastly something I have to keep telling people....In order to really bring out the worst in parents The present must be from Santa. It is one thing to explain to your 16 year old that their xbox was out of stock for Christmas, but quite different to explain to your smaller one that Santa was out of stock.

Anyway, This is my prediction for the must have doll of this season.

[Raiders Army]

And, lastly something I have to keep telling people....In order to really bring out the worst in parents The present must be from Santa. It is one thing to explain to your 16 year old that their xbox was out of stock for Christmas, but quite different to explain to your smaller one that Santa was out of stock.
Why would you ever do that? To make other parents look bad?

...and I don't think it will be a "must-have" item.

[rkmsuf]

I've never even heard of it.

[Raiders Army]

Also, that article was published November 1st. It's been a month now and nothing...I doubt it's going to become "hot" in the next few weeks.

[Joe]

not a must have

[stevew]

I picked up a "Use the Potty" Elmo for the young'in. I wish she would get more interested in peeing in the potty. :(

[WrongWay]

Why would you ever do that? To make other parents look bad?

...and I don't think it will be a "must-have" item.
No, like when I hear people predicting what this seasons "Must have toy will be".

In order to really bring out the worst in parents for a Christmas present the toy must be from Santa. Like the Cabbage PAtch Doll craze, or the Tickle me Elmo craze of a few years ago. Anytime I hear some predicting the same craze over a gift that is being bought for a teenager I remind people about my Santa Claus theory.

[WrongWay]

Also, that article was published November 1st. It's been a month now and nothing...I doubt it's going to become "hot" in the next few weeks.
It is sold out at my Wal~Mart, and the doll is already selling for $10-$20 more than it cost over at ebay?

And, all this without me seeing a single commercial for the doll on TV yet.

[rkmsuf]

It is sold out at my Wal~Mart, and the doll is already selling for $10-$20 more than it cost over at ebay?

And, all this with me seeing a single commercial for the doll on TV yet.


Considering the bullk of holiday shopping for kids is happening now, they better hurry up with those commericials.

[Raiders Army]

It is sold out at my Wal~Mart, and the doll is already selling for $10-$20 more than it cost over at ebay?

And, all this without me seeing a single commercial for the doll on TV yet.
I can't believe I actually read your words. Hot seller. Hmmm.....

$40 on amazon.com

5 hours to go on ebay and selling for $32.50.

hxxp://cgi.ebay.com/ELMO-KNOWS-YOUR-NAME-INTERACTIVE-PLUSH-FISHER-PRICE_W0QQitemZ6016345331QQcategoryZ19229QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

:rolleyes:

Edit--forgot the rolleyes

[FrogMan]

It is sold out at my Wal~Mart
something not being on the shelf in a Wal-Mart is far from being declared a "hot" item. They are regularly out of bbq flavored potato chips...

FM

[WrongWay]

5 hours to go on ebay and selling for $32.50.

hxxp://cgi.ebay.com/ELMO-KNOWS-YOUR-NAME-INTERACTIVE-PLUSH-FISHER-PRICE_W0QQitemZ6016345331QQcategoryZ19229QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

:rolleyes:
You can't be this ignorant....Maybe I can purchase that brand new top of the line HP laptop that is currently listed on ebay for $9.99 :rolleyes:

Because we all know that there is no last minute bidding on ebay. :rolleyes:



EDIT: Did you read the description? That is a used doll from a smoke free home being sold "As IS" :p

[ThunderingHERD]

I see a buy it now for 43.99. Not to mention that you can get it from a retailer just fine. Ebay sellers trying to sucker people into to paying 59.99 for it doesn't make it a hard find.

[WrongWay]

Looking at the "buy it Now" options on ebay, I see a $55.00 one, a $65.00 one and a $79.99 one, how about you?

[WrongWay]

I see a buy it now for 43.99. Not to mention that you can get it from a retailer just fine.
And the total price including shipping would be?

Quite a lot more than the $39.99 price they were selling in storers when originally released. But, since the retail stores are all running out I guess you have to start paying through the nose to get them.

[ThunderingHERD]

Looking at the "buy it Now" options on ebay, I see a $55.00 one, a $65.00 one and a $79.99 one, how about you?

How is that relevant? If I put my used underwear up on eBay right now with a buy it now of 99.99, would that make it this years hot holiday item?

[Raiders Army]

You can't be this ignorant....Maybe I can purchase that brand new top of the line HP laptop that is currently listed on ebay for $9.99 :rolleyes:

Because we all know that there is no last minute bidding on ebay. :rolleyes:
I raise your two rolleyes with two more: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Do a search on ebay:

hxxp://search.ebay.com/search/search.dll?cgiurl=http%3A%2F%2Fcgi.ebay.com%2Fws%2F&fkr=1&from=R8&satitle=elmo+knows+your+name&category0=

When the only items that have bids on them are below the retail price and within the next 10 hours, there are five available, I'd say that it's not a hot item. Additionally, there are no takers on the Buy It Now option of $43 to $80.

Are you seriously this stupid?

[Raiders Army]

Also, amazon.com will ship this "hot" item to you within 24 hours.

[ThunderingHERD]

And the total price including shipping would be?

Quite a lot more than the $39.99 price they were selling in storers when originally released. But, since the retail stores are all running out I guess you have to start paying through the nose to get them.

From Amazon, 39.99 + $6 shipping and handling.

As for wal-mart experiencing a terrible shortage: they <a href="http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=3933954">sell it online</a> for 38.88 and shipping is only 97 cents.

Shut up now. Thanks.

[WrongWay]

Yes, that is why I posted here. Elmo is available right now via mail order.

What would be the fun in making a prediction after the fact?

Generally if you are going to make a prediction about something you have to do it before the event.

[Raiders Army]

I predict the world will end tomorrow at 3 PM EST.

No facts to back it up, just pure speculation.

[WrongWay]

I predict the world will end tomorrow at 3 PM EST.

No facts to back it up, just pure speculation.
I will see you here tomorrow then after 3 PM.

Who know by then maybe ThunderingHERD will be predicting who is gong to win the 2003 Superbowl. :D

[ThunderingHERD]

I don't have a problem with your prediction, other than that it's wrong and will be proven wrong. When you tried to back it up with flimsy "evidence"--that's what I had a problem with, especially when you defend it right up until the point where it's completely blown out of the water, and then suddenly it's "I'm just makin' a prediction here!"

[WrongWay]

ThunderingHERD, What is the last line of my original post?

[ThunderingHERD]

Jesus Christ it's like arguing with an 8 year old.

What was the first line of my last post?

[WrongWay]

Well, since you will not admit you are wrong I will do it for you. Here is my last line of my original post.

Anyway, This is my prediction for the must have doll of this season.

So, I guess I didn't "Suddenly" bring up this "Prediction" idea like you claimed. Did I? Just admit you are wrong and move along now. :D

[ThunderingHERD]

Rephrasing your original post:

I think Elmo Knows your Name will be a big hit because:
* they're out of stock at Walmart.
* it's selling on eBay for $50-$60.

Nobody was arguing with your prediction, just your dumbass reasoning.

[TargetPractice6]

Rephrasing your original post:



Nobody was arguing with your prediction, just your dumbass reasoning.Count it!

[Raiders Army]

LOL

[ThunderingHERD]

Well, since you will not admit you are wrong I will do it for you. Here is my last line of my original post.



So, I guess I didn't "Suddenly" bring up this "Prediction" idea like you claimed. Did I? Just admit you are wrong and move along now. :D

Lets see if you can understand this. If not, read it again, slowly. Several times. Maybe read it out loud, if that helps. Maybe have someone read it for you.

The basis for you prediction was what we were arguing. In fact, it's what you were defending. When you got the shit beat out of you there, you jumped ship on that one and went with the whole "I'm just making a prediction!" thing. That is when Raiders Army made his comment about it just being pure speculation--because now you're just sitting on this dumb thing with no rationale to back it up.

[WrongWay]

Don't forget my Winnie the Pooh theory. Or, the fact that people are trying to sell last year Personalized Elmo as this years Elmo know your name.

And, then you pretty much have my thought on why I think this years "Must Have" doll will be the Elmo.


Although, I was very surprised to read that someone here thinks that most parents already have most of their Christmas shopping done. Most of my Christmas shopping done in November, I wish.

[Raiders Army]

Herd, just give up. No amount of logic will get through.

[Desnudo]

I think WrongWay is a corporate stooge for Tickle Me Elmo and is trying to drum up business.

[panerd]

My Walmart's hot item is an Elmo eating a bag of B-B-Q chips.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Funny, my Wal-Mart's hot item is a BBQ Elmo.

[WrongWay]

I can provide links to everything I said here.

As for proof, you are going to have to wait until Christmas before I can provide that. Although, I will be sure to start including links in this thread to all the big online outlets when they start listing the Elmo as sold out.

[ThunderingHERD]

Or, the fact that people are trying to sell last year Personalized Elmo as this years Elmo know your name.

Thanks for reminding me of this brilliant theory.

First, could you please point to one shred of evidence that suggests that this is occurring? It would seem unlikely, if for no other reason than the well-established fact that Elmo Knows Your Name is readily available from any number of traditional retail outlets.

What really puzzles me about this theory is how exactly you came to reason that people selling product B in lieu of product A is <i>good</i> for the sales of product A.

[WrongWay]

What really puzzles me about this theory is how exactly you came to reason that people selling product B in lieu of product A is <i>good</i> for the sales of product A.
It is not. But It does happen when there is a shortage of product A. Like the fake homemade cabbage patch dolls that were being given as gifts during the cabbage patch doll craze.

[ThunderingHERD]

It is not. But It does happen when there is a shortage of product A. Like the fake homemade cabbage patch dolls that were being given as gifts during the cabbage patch doll craze.

But haven't we already established that there is <b>not</b> a shortage of the product? So how exactly can you count this as a point on your side?

[WrongWay]

And, I am saying that there IS already a shortage of these dolls at your local retail stores.

Just wait, and this local shortage will go nation wide.

[Joe]

why is it that the STUPIDEST arguments on this board always involve/are started by WrongWay?

[WrongWay]

why is it that the STUPIDEST arguments on this board always involve/are started by WrongWay?
Because I am not trying to predict the winner of the 2003 Super Bowl?

OR, maybe because most of my threads that I start are about predicting some future event?

[ThunderingHERD]

And, I am saying that there IS already a shortage of these dolls at your local retail stores.

Isn't that the point you abandoned earlier? Are we back here again? When all evidence suggests otherwise?

I think this is where I get off.

[Neuqua]

why is it that the STUPIDEST arguments on this board always involve/are started by WrongWay?

Exactly what I was thinking.

[WrongWay]

My local stores are currently out of stock, I just called.

Wal~Mart
Toys-R-Us
KB Toys

[bronconick]

My local stores are currently out of stock, I just called.

Wal~Mart
Toys-R-Us
KB Toys
That's because they don't have a clue what you're talking about, and as such, have decided that if they haven't heard of it, they don't have it, thus eliminating the chance you'll come in and harass them about it in person



(worked in retail)

[WrongWay]

That's because they don't have a clue what you're talking about, and as such, have decided that if they haven't heard of it, they don't have it, thus eliminating the chance you'll come in and harass them about it in person



(worked in retail)
This is not the case as both stores I called, Toys & KB, offered to order the Doll for me.

[Galaxy]

I though the Wie thread was bad...

Also, who cares what the hottest toy is? Buy want you want, for yourself or kids.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I think a Charlize Theron doll would be a pretty hot toy.

[WrongWay]

Also, who cares what the hottest toy is?

I enjoy reading about future prdictions and making some myself.

Anyone blasting my Elmo prediction, how about making one of your own? What do you think is going to be this Christmas's big toy?

[TargetPractice6]

I enjoy reading about future prdictions and making some myself.

Anyone blasting my Elmo prediction, how about making one of your own? What do you think is going to be this Christmas's big toy?I don't think anybody really cares.

[WrongWay]

5 hours to go on ebay and selling for $32.50.

hxxp://cgi.ebay.com/ELMO-KNOWS-YOUR-NAME-INTERACTIVE-PLUSH-FISHER-PRICE_W0QQitemZ6016345331QQcategoryZ19229QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem


Your Used, "As-Is" Elmo just sold for $44.00

For what it is worth: Everyone seller over at ebay is claiming that this doll is already sold out everwhere.


You want me to make a Guarantee? I guarantee if you buy this doll right now for $39.99 you wil be able to turn around and sell it for $75.00 Plus shipping by Dec 20th.

[Buccaneer]

why is it that the STUPIDEST arguments on this board always involve/are started by WrongWay?
Right on.

[Buccaneer]

I think a Charlize Theron doll would be a pretty hot toy.
Can I get it with the real Aeon Flux outfit instead of the wetsuit one in the movie? :D

[ThunderingHERD]

Your Used, "As-Is" Elmo just sold for $44.00

For what it is worth: Everyone seller over at ebay is claiming that this doll is already sold out everwhere.


You want me to make a Guarantee? I guarantee if you buy this doll right now for $39.99 you wil be able to turn around and sell it for $75.00 Plus shipping by Dec 20th.

I will make a wager of anything you'd like on this, monetary or otherwise.

[Joe]

I enjoy reading about future prdictions and making some myself.

Anyone blasting my Elmo prediction, how about making one of your own? What do you think is going to be this Christmas's big toy?

Ok, I'll play. XBOX 360. Now, what do I win?

[WrongWay]

I will make a wager of anything you'd like on this, monetary or otherwise.
OK. How about a 6 month ban from posting here at the FOFC?

If I find an Elmo that sells for over $75.00 on ebay you can not make another post untill July of 2006. If I can't then I can not make a post untill July 2006.

Is it a bet?




This will be for the Elmo knows your name doll.

[ThunderingHERD]

A single one? No. For all I know you could buy your own Elmo for $75.

I'll wager on it not being common occurrence for them to go in that price range just to cover my ass for such randomness or foul play. That was more to the spirit of your original guarantee anyway, right? That "you" could sell your doll for $75 + shipping, the you being a generalized anyone--not one random guy who happens to sucker some poor fool.

[WrongWay]

A single one? No. For all I know you could buy your own Elmo for $75.

I'll wager on it not being common occurrence for them to go in that price range just to cover my ass for such randomness or foul play. That was more to the spirit of your original guarantee anyway, right? That "you" could sell your doll for $75 + shipping, the you being a generalized anyone--not one random guy who happens to sucker some poor fool.
Put a number on it. 1, 5, 9, 50, 100; how many Elmos do I have to find that sell for over $75.00 on ebay between now and Christmas?

Keep in mind there are already some Elmos on ebay that have a Buy it Now price over $75.00. :)

[kcchief19]

I enjoy reading about future prdictions and making some myself. Here's a prediction. I predict that none of WrongWay's predictions will ever come true.
Anyone blasting my Elmo prediction, how about making one of your own? What do you think is going to be this Christmas's big toy? There's this strange thing called an Xbox 360. There were a couple of news stories about people waiting in line all night line for the chance to buy one, and there's a great story about a no-good punk kid and bullies going around. There's one on Ebay (http://cgi.ebay.com/Microsoft-Xbox-360-Game-console_W0QQitemZ8238773719QQcategoryZ62054QQtcZphotoQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem) right with a top bid of $1,500 and a Buy-It-Now option for $2,000. Several bids for other Xbox packages are ranging from $600 to $1000. Can't get it online at Wal-Mart -- appears to be sold out.

As soon as Elmo is going for $600 on Ebay, let us know.

[kcchief19]

Ok, I'll play. XBOX 360. Now, what do I win? Damn. Should have read ahead. GWB beat me to it.

[WrongWay]

Here's a prediction. I predict that none of WrongWay's predictions will ever come true.
There's this strange thing called an Xbox 360. There were a couple of news stories about people waiting in line all night line for the chance to buy one, and there's a great story about a no-good punk kid and bullies going around. There's one on Ebay (http://cgi.ebay.com/Microsoft-Xbox-360-Game-console_W0QQitemZ8238773719QQcategoryZ62054QQtcZphotoQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem) right with a top bid of $1,500 and a Buy-It-Now option for $2,000. Several bids for other Xbox packages are ranging from $600 to $1000. Can't get it online at Wal-Mart -- appears to be sold out.

As soon as Elmo is going for $600 on Ebay, let us know.
I think before it is all said and done you will be reading a Story about a guy in Nebraska who paid 10 times the cost just so he could give his daughter an Elmo for Christmas.

So, yes I think it is going to be bigger the the xbox this year.

[WrongWay]

Damn. Should have read ahead. GWB beat me to it.
Hey Chief are you in our bet for the over $75.00 elmo doll then? I wouldn't mind shutting you mouth for 6 months of peice either. :D

[Galaxy]

I think before it is all said and done you will be reading a Story about a guy in Nebraska who paid 10 times the cost just so he could give his daughter an Elmo for Christmas.

So, yes I think it is going to be bigger the the xbox this year.

Let me know WHEN it happens. A doll does not have the same impact that video game systems have. Just curious, what's with the obession of this Elmo Doll that you have?

[WrongWay]

So far here is my Bid for biggest increase.


Elmo Price
List price 39.99
Ebay completed price $127.50
http://cgi.ebay.com/ELMO-KNOWS-YOUR-NAME-Doll-Hard-To-Find-RARE-NEW_W0QQitemZ6013870297QQcategoryZ19229QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

That give me a 318.19% price increase. And were not even close to Christmas yet :)


Your turn.

[Raiders Army]

So far here is my Bid for biggest increase.


Elmo Price
List price 39.99
Ebay completed price $127.50
http://cgi.ebay.com/ELMO-KNOWS-YOUR-NAME-Doll-Hard-To-Find-RARE-NEW_W0QQitemZ6013870297QQcategoryZ19229QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

That give me a 318.19% price increase. And were not even close to Christmas yet :)


Your turn.
That auction ended a week ago. The current auctions are ending for around retail. At the rate of decline in prices on ebay ($127.50 to $40 in a week), I'd say they'll be going for free by December 20th.

[FrogMan]

Can I get it with the real Aeon Flux outfit instead of the wetsuit one in the movie? :D
with either outfit would be fine by me, really...

...or no outfit at all

err, did I say that out loud?!? :eek:

:D

FM

[WrongWay]

That auction ended a week ago. The current auctions are ending for around retail. At the rate of decline in prices on ebay ($127.50 to $40 in a week), I'd say they'll be going for free by December 20th.
LOL...you guys are really reaching now. :D

[Pumpy Tudors]

I think before it is all said and done you will be reading a Story about a guy in Nebraska who paid 10 times the cost just so he could give his daughter an Elmo for Christmas.

So, yes I think it is going to be bigger [than] the xbox this year.
He's calling it now.

[JonInMiddleGA]

why is it that the STUPIDEST arguments on this board always involve/are started by WrongWay?

Sorry Mr. President, but reading through this one ... he didn't start this one.
And damned if I understand why some people haven't been boxed for trolling him in it frankly.

[kcchief19]

Sorry Mr. President, but reading through this one ... he didn't start this one.
And damned if I understand why some people haven't been boxed for trolling him in it frankly. You can't be this ignorant....Maybe I can purchase that brand new top of the line HP laptop that is currently listed on ebay for $9.99 :rolleyes:

Because we all know that there is no last minute bidding on ebay. :rolleyes: I'm sorry ... who started what and who is trolling?

[Raiders Army]

I'm sorry ... who started what and who is trolling?
FWIW, I honestly don't think WrongWay trolls. I do think he's very obstinate, opinionated, and wrong most of the time which could be construed as trolling. Now, I may have been the one to start the argument, but it was based on the fact that he doesn't have any facts. *shrug*

[Galaxy]

Sorry Mr. President, but reading through this one ... he didn't start this one.
And damned if I understand why some people haven't been boxed for trolling him in it frankly.
Huh, WW started the thread. Aruging, and caring about, an Elmo doll is a little stupid in my opinion.

[ThunderingHERD]

If that was a legitimate bid then all it proves is that there is at least one person out there as stupid as you. I think it's been firmly established that the doll is available from any online retailer you care to look for retail price.

The article you read which prompted your fixation with this doll should provide all the information you need to conclude that there will be no shortages--shortages don't happen when you're expecting something to be a big seller. Not with a product like this, anyway.

To your rudimentary reasoning skills it may seem like a perfect setup for Tickle Me Elmo all over again ("Elmo! Christmas! Toy! Firetruck! Prediction! Prediction! Prediction! Cookies!!"), but the similarities between the two situations are only superficial. While this new Elmo may very well be a great seller, there is zero chance of it creating the hysteria of its predecessor.

[kcchief19]

FWIW, I honestly don't think WrongWay trolls. I do think he's very obstinate, opinionated, and wrong most of the time which could be construed as trolling. Now, I may have been the one to start the argument, but it was based on the fact that he doesn't have any facts. *shrug* I don't think WW is necessarily trolling either. I have no reason to question the sincerity of some of his recent claims, but he has the misfortune recently initi that have either lead to very stupid arguments (the Michelle Wie debacle) or predictions for which facts clearly don't seem to be in his favor (the future of the Harry Potter franchise, the supply and demand curves of the Talking Elmo vs. Xbox 360).

I just thought it was hysterical the JIMGA seemed to think we're all picking on WW when he's the one who started the thread and he called you ignorant for point out a fact. JIMGA is the first to call people out when he thinks their full of crap, and I only think it's fair to apply the same standard to him.

[John Galt]

I think the Michelle Wie doll will outsell any Elmo doll this X-mas.

[Raiders Army]

I just thought it was hysterical the JIMGA seemed to think we're all picking on WW when he's the one who started the thread and he called you ignorant for point out a fact. JIMGA is the first to call people out when he thinks their full of crap, and I only think it's fair to apply the same standard to him.
I agree.

Wait, WTF???? I'm agreeing with a Chiefs fan???? :)

[WrongWay]

I still think this will be the doll that all our FOFC parents should buy as soon as possible.

Right now the doll is Sold out at retail stores all over the country, but is still available online. With 25 days to go before Christmas I see this doll selling out online within the next few weeks.

I thought this would be a fun topic to talk about and an even funnier topic to watch develop before our eyes as parents do seem to go a little crazy during the holidays. Now, if you are a parent, or just a relative like myself; I advise you to imediately get your online Elmo shopping done as this doll is going to be completely sold out before the holidays.

[Galaxy]

I still think this will be the doll that all our FOFC parents should buy as soon as possible.



Why should they buy it? Because it's "sold out"?

[WrongWay]

Why should they buy it? Because it's "sold out"?
They should buy it before it sells out.

Remember for parents this gift is from Santa. So, on December 20 when their child tells them that they asked Santa for the Elmo Doll, like all their friends are doing, they don't have to search everywhere, and pay out the nose for this little doll.

That is part of my Santa theory anyway. Can a parent ever tell their child that Santa Clause was "sold out"?

[Galaxy]

They should buy it before it sells out.

Remember for parents this gift is from Santa. So, on December 20 when their child tells them that they asked Santa for the Elmo Doll, like all their friends are doing, they don't have to search everywhere, and pay out the nose for this little doll.

That is part of my Santa theory anyway. Can a parent ever tell their child that Santa Clause was "sold out"?

Do you own stock in this company? Your pretty obessed with this toy.

[ThunderingHERD]

<b>No 'must-have' item on shopping lists</b>
Wed <b>Nov 23</b>, 2005 3:19 PM ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - As U.S. retailers gear up for what they hope will be a hot start to the key holiday shopping season, this year's "must-have" buys seem largely unclear.

While the standard wish list remains predictable -- cashmere sweaters, digital cameras, jewelry and toys -- industry analysts are divided over what, if anything, is likely to emerge as this year's No. 1 seller.

Stand-out candidates so far are consumer electronics, according to several analysts, including Deutsche Bank's retail specialist Bill Dreher.

"There is a commoditization of the digital revolution," Dreher said. "We're seeing home theaters and smaller flat-screen TVs and MP3 players and laptop computers."

He called the $398 Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) laptop computer -- expected to go on sale on Friday at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) -- "an amazing value."

A hot item launched this week is Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Xbox 360.

The hot status is a mixed blessing, however. Retailers have reported widespread sell-outs on the system, which is the first from a major console maker in four years.

The new Xbox sells for $400, with a "core unit" -- faulted by some hard-core gamers because it lacks a hard drive to let it play older games -- going for $300.

Legg Mason analyst Richard Jaffe takes a different view, saying "electronics lack the sizzle of prior seasons."

In a note to clients, Jaffe wrote: "MP3 players, including the ubiquitous iPod, are no longer an exciting novelty. DVD players are now a commodity ... the flat-screen frenzy has tapered significantly."

Nevertheless, accessories for iPods and other MP3 devices are expected to be key sellers.

"Speakers and musical toys that play with the iPod are going to be very hot this holiday season," said Toys R Us Inc. president John Barbour, adding that "a new video game platform like Xbox 360 ... is going to be the must-have for many kids."

<b>For younger kids, the hot seller has yet to emerge.</b>

Since Mattel's (MAT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) new plush <b>Elmo "Knows Your Name" interactive doll is not likely to enjoy the same popularity as its 1996 "Tickle Me" predecessor, electronics are also seen as the likely draw for tech-savvy children.</b>

"There is going to be something" that will become the hot seller this year, says Harris Nesbitt toy industry analyst Sean McGowan, but "I just don't know what it is."

WHAT TO WEAR

Apparel will likely play second-fiddle to other categories when it comes to gift giving, said Kurt Barnard, head of consultants Retail Forecasting Group.

"Last year's color palette was a good one," he said, citing the pinks and corals that were popular in 2004. "But this year's neutral and dark colors are not exactly sale-inspiring."

Instead, Barnard is betting on jewelry and accessories.

"Everyone already has a closet full of clothes," he said. "But what a scarf and a handbag can do for a 3-year-old wardrobe is amazing." Popular jewelry and accessory brands include Tiffany & Co Inc. (TIF.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Coach Inc. (COH.N: Quote, Profile, Research), and Guess? Inc. (GES.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

LACK OF INTEREST?

Wendy Liebmann, founder and president of the retail consulting firm WSL Strategic Retail, said a recent survey revealed that 53 percent of women and men around the United States said they will spend less on holiday gifts this year compared with 2004.

What's more, she said 65 percent of them said this is because "there is nothing new and interesting to buy."

"This is the perfect reflection of the mind-set of shoppers heading into this new decade," Liebmann wrote in a recent newsletter.

Citing factors including the war in Iraq, the recent natural disasters, the bird flu scare, higher interest rates and even the new Medicare prescription benefits plan, Liebmann forecast that <b>consumers will only go into debt for new items that are "discernibly different" from what they have.</b>

Barnard echoed her caution, noting that U.S. consumers have yet to taste the increase in their home-heating bills, which are expected to be 20 percent to 30 percent greater than they were last winter, due to higher oil prices.

But as for this year's must-have holiday item, Barnard said, "You will never find that any one particular category towers over another. It is almost always a mixed picture."



:eek:

[ThunderingHERD]

Oooh, oooh, oooh, wait! I found a better one. Went online at Forbes just three hours ago:

Associated Press
Update 9: U.S. Retailers Post Mixed Sales for Nov.
12.01.2005, 04:13 PM

The holiday shopping outlook was hazy Thursday after the nation's retailers reported a mixed start to the season that showed consumers were willing to spend only when they found a bargain.

One thing was certain, however - retailers are likely to resort to heavy markdowns in hopes of meeting their sales targets. Many of last month's winners were stores that heavily discounted over the Thanksgiving weekend, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. Inc.

November had some surprises - upscale retailers were among the disappointments, including Nordstrom Inc., usually a top performer. On the upside, Limited Brands Inc. had solid gains after struggling for months with its fashions. Limited's sales were fed by a combination of aggressive price cutting and a makeover at its Express division.

"You had some very good performances by only a handful of stores, but you also had a fair amount of weakness. Most of the business was driven by promotions," said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers.

"More of the season's sales now ride on December, which is dicey because of the weather and promotional activity," which could hurt stores' profits, he said.

The UBS-International Council of Shopping Centers' November sales tally of 65 retailers rose 3.5 percent last month; the results matched Niemira's forecast, but beat a meager 1.8 percent increase a year ago. The sales tally is based on sales at stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales.

Niemira added, "The economic numbers look better, but on the other hand you worry about consumers' ability to spend."

The Commerce Department reported separately Thursday that personal spending edged up in October, while incomes rose 0.4 percent. In another report, the Labor Department said the number of hurricane-related job losses totaled just 9,600 last week, a substantial improvement from 21,000 the previous week.

Retail analysts were optimistic going into the holiday season because gasoline prices have fallen from their September highs. The latest batch of upbeat economic data and a rebound in consumer confidence in November were encouraging signs that shoppers might be more generous.

But big challenges remain. While gas prices have fallen, they're still above last year's levels and home heating costs are also expected to be high.

Another factor is that <b>there doesn't seem to be any particular must-have item this season besides the latest new game console from Microsoft, Xbox 360.</b> And some analysts believe consumers' focus on electronics - particularly flat-screen TVs and digital cameras - could hurt apparel sales.

<b>Even in toys, electronic items are doing the best, particularly Hasbro Inc.'s, iDog and Fisher-Price's Dora's Talking Kitchen, according to retailers.</b>

[continues with no relevant information...]


Wha, wha, wha??? It seems like they would have mentioned the Elmo Knows Your Name there, seeing as how it's been selling out at retailers nationwide. It even fits that category, electronic toys, perfectly--but still no mention.

Pls STFU now, thx.

[WrongWay]

I like your first article better, because it went out of its way to put down my Elmo theory. :)

But, I will not lose faith in little Elmo and will return with Every single "Sold OUT" notice I can find from online outlets or Elmo Christmas Headlines.

I shall return. :)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Huh, WW started the thread. Aruging, and caring about, an Elmo doll is a little stupid in my opinion.

He started the thread, but he didn't start the mini-war the thread turned into.
I figured what I meant was pretty clear.

As for "stupid" stuff ... the number of people who seem breathless waiting for a chance to fuck with WW strikes me pretty much the same way {shrug}

[ThunderingHERD]

I like your first article better, because it went out of its way to put down my Elmo theory. :)

But, I will not lose faith in little Elmo and will return with Every single "Sold OUT" notice I can find from online outlets or Elmo Christmas Headlines.

I shall return. :)

You may think that you save face by sticking to your guns even when confronted with overwhelming evidence but actually it's the reason so many find you completely insufferable.

[WrongWay]

You may think that you save face by sticking to your guns even when confronted with overwhelming evidence but actually it's the reason so many find you completely insufferable.
Sorry, but I am "sticking to my guns" untill December 26th.

Since this article is about predicting a future event you can't say that the facts are already in. And, I don't understand why you keep arguing this point or, why you keep asking me to offer proof on a future event.

No one can say for certain what is going to happen between now and December 25th!!!


So, I will see you December 26th to serve you a huge helping of Crow when I have the fact in hand and you are proven wrong, wrong, wrong. :D

[WrongWay]

Ok, I'll play. XBOX 360. Now, what do I win?
Nothing.

How many Xbox 360s right now do you think are stuffed in the back of someone's closet wrapped in a box with a bow on top waiting for Christmas?

[Joe]

Nothing.

How many Xbox 360s right now do you think are stuffed in the back of someone's closet wrapped in a box with a bow on top waiting for Christmas?


I thought you were debating the hottest seller, not the item of the greatest quantity stuffed in the back of a closet?

[WrongWay]

How many xbox 360s do you think are going to be given as presents on Christmas day?

That is basically what I meant. I would think a particular xbox 360 game would have more of a chance at being the hot Christmas item than the system itself.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I think someone needs to define "hot item" now. I think you guys are all arguing different things. Let's just call it Charlize Theron and be done with it.

[Galaxy]

He started the thread, but he didn't start the mini-war the thread turned into.
I figured what I meant was pretty clear.

As for "stupid" stuff ... the number of people who seem breathless waiting for a chance to fuck with WW strikes me pretty much the same way {shrug}
I don't know, it's just that we are posting evidence that against his claims and doesn't have solid evidence to support his, and yet he is still letting it go on.

[Shkspr]

I think someone needs to define "hot item" now. I think you guys are all arguing different things. Let's just call it Charlize Theron and be done with it.

:shrug: Okay.


How many Charlize Therons right now do you think are stuffed in the back of someone's closet wrapped in a box with a bow on top waiting for Christmas?

[Shkspr]

Dola...

I only know of one, myself.

[WrongWay]

That auction ended a week ago. The current auctions are ending for around retail. At the rate of decline in prices on ebay ($127.50 to $40 in a week), I'd say they'll be going for free by December 20th.
Actually the guy has another Elmo available at his store for $200.00.

http://cgi.ebay.com/HTF-NIB-ELMO-KNOWS-YOUR-NAME-Talking-Doll-RARE-NIB-NEW_W0QQitemZ6011841730QQcategoryZ19229QQcmdZViewItem

[WrongWay]

Psst.....Dont look now, but Sears.com has just slapped the "Out of Stock" label on Elmo.

http://www.sears.com/sr/javasr/product.do?BV_UseBVCookie=Yes&vertical=TOYS&pid=05278277000&subcat=Animated+%26+Interactive+Animals

[WrongWay]

LOL... You want proof, here is your stinking proof. :D

Target.com "Out of Stock" Availability : Item arriving in 2 to 6 weeks. Order now.


http://www.target.com/gp/detail.html/sr=2-1/qid=1133523445/ref=sr_2_1/602-1046617-5905414?%5Fencoding=UTF8&asin=B00080VMLS




And, just like I predicted the "Pooh knows your name" doll is currently available for all those parents that did not plan ahead.

[WrongWay]

I am Having fun now.

Looks like that plate of crow is going to come a couple weeks early for you this year. :)

[Joe]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B00080VMLS/qid=1133523948/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/103-5998274-8942264?v=glance&s=toys&n=507846

Availability: Usually ships within 24 hours

[WrongWay]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B00080VMLS/qid=1133523948/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/103-5998274-8942264?v=glance&s=toys&n=507846

Availability: Usually ships within 24 hours
I know this is starting to get crazy. 24 hours ago everyone had Elmo dolls. I wonder who will be the next major store to slap the "Out of Stock" sticker on their Web site.

[Joe]

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=3933954

IN STOCK
Usually takes 24 to 48 hours to process.

[WrongWay]

I think Sears.com sold out this morning around 2am and then Target.com sold out 2 hours later around 4am.

Anyone looking for an Elmo better hurry and order your from either Wal~Mart(38.88) or amazon(39.99) fast.

Funny, I couldn't find an Elmo knows your name doll at Kmart?



KB Toys in stock 39.99
http://www.kbtoys.com/genProduct.html/PID/4079459/ctid/17/INstock/Y/D/

[WrongWay]

jcpenny.com is reporting a "Low Stock". What ever the hell that means.


It is still available because I was allowed to put it in my shopping bag.

[Galaxy]

Do you surf the net all day for Elmo dolls?

[ThunderingHERD]

That's fascinating until you start looking for other toys in the same manner. Let's take Dora's Talking Kitchen, for example, out of stock at every online retailer I've went to, including Target, Walmart, and Amazon. Hell, you can barely find the accessories for it. There several ebay auctions asking $175+ for it right now. And OMG OMG there's a Barbie talking kitchen too!!!! The theory is all coming together! Oh, shit! THERE'S A DORA'S TALKING HOUSE, the CHEAPER INFERIOR PRODUCT!!

With so many items flying off the shelves as fast as Elmo did in '96, this surely must be one of the greatest years for retailer's ever.

[Subby]

The sheer amount of pwnage in this thread is both staggering and hilarious.

[Pumpy Tudors]

How many Charlize Therons right now do you think are stuffed in the back of someone's closet wrapped in a box with a bow on top waiting for Christmas?
Counting the one at my house or no?

[vex]

This thread...is just sad.

[Galaxy]

I agree, which is why I am dropping out of it.

[WrongWay]

That's fascinating until you start looking for other toys in the same manner. Let's take Dora's Talking Kitchen, for example, out of stock at every online retailer I've went to, including Target, Walmart, and Amazon. Hell, you can barely find the accessories for it. There several ebay auctions asking $175+ for it right now. And OMG OMG there's a Barbie talking kitchen too!!!! The theory is all coming together! Oh, shit! THERE'S A DORA'S TALKING HOUSE, the CHEAPER INFERIOR PRODUCT!!

With so many items flying off the shelves as fast as Elmo did in '96, this surely must be one of the greatest years for retailer's ever.
Wow, for 2 pages you talk about how Elmo is widely available everywhere and not sold out anywhere. You go on, and on demanding that I show you proof that Elmo is sold out anywhere.

Now, that Elmo is selling out in the retail stores and already "Sold out" at many online stores you come back with this?

I feel sorry for you, but keep your chin up Herd. As long as you have Food stamps in your pocket and can say "do you want that supersized" you should be alright. :D

[WrongWay]

BTW--- Elmo just sold out at JC Penny.

[WrongWay]

KB Toys in stock 39.99
http://www.kbtoys.com/genProduct.html/PID/4079459/ctid/17/INstock/Y/D/
You can also now include KB Toys to the list.

Elmo is now Sold out at KB Toys.

[Shkspr]

So how the hell is WrongWay going to pay off his $835,000 Visa bill next month, anyway?

[WrongWay]

So how the hell is WrongWay going to pay off his $835,000 Visa bill next month, anyway?
LOL... That would be my "No Limit" American Express card.



Actually, right now I am kicking myself for not following my own advice and picking up 5 of these Elmos when they were in stock at my local Wal~Mart.

[Godzilla Blitz]

I have no idea why I'm doing this...

I know this is a bad idea...

I feel like I'm driving my car full speed right into the middle of an accident...

But oh well...

...Elmo was so 20th century. He had his party ten years ago. He's still popular, but his cult status is gone; he's a reasonably popular figure who has short-lived flings with little kids for a few months, but he's now got a lot more competition than he did 10 years ago. The spread of cable has created a plethora of new tv shows that have spawned their own line of products, and the power and presence of Sesame Street has waned. With that, Elmo has waned as well.

And a talking doll? Please. Thatl was so 20th century as well. There are too many similar products for this Elmo doll to compete with, and it hardly distinguishes itself from the crowd with some new, "must-have", feature. Says your child's name? So? I can do that too. The thing only knows 20 other phrases? Whopee. We've got a battered, $10 Care Bear in my daughter's room that knows about that many. The Elmo craze of 1996 had that "wow" factor. I don't see the "wow" factor here.

Sure it might sell well, but there won't be significant numbers of people clawing over each other to get the thing, and given that the producer is the one pushing the "hot item" tack, you can bet they made boatloads of the things.

All in all, demand will be much lower for this Elmo than for the 1996 one, and supply will be much higher. End result: no craze.

Sure, quite a few stores will likely sell out as Christmas nears, but the problem at that point in time is not lack of supply, but rather that the distribution system can't handle the excess shipping demands. Tons of good products are unavailable in stores in the few days before Christmas because there simply isn't a way to move and stock that much product in that short of a time.

This ain't got no chance, despite the fact that whoever made the thing would like the rest of the world to think so.

I wonder if Guitar Hero has a chance, though.

[Galaxy]

I have no idea why I'm doing this...

I know this is a bad idea...

I feel like I'm driving my car full speed right into the middle of an accident...

But oh well...

...Elmo was so 20th century. He had his party ten years ago. He's still popular, but his cult status is gone; he's a reasonably popular figure who has short-lived flings with little kids for a few months, but he's now got a lot more competition than he did 10 years ago. The spread of cable has created a plethora of new tv shows that have spawned their own line of products, and the power and presence of Sesame Street has waned. With that, Elmo has waned as well.

And a talking doll? Please. Thatl was so 20th century as well. There are too many similar products for this Elmo doll to compete with, and it hardly distinguishes itself from the crowd with some new, "must-have", feature. Says your child's name? So? I can do that too. The thing only knows 20 other phrases? Whopee. We've got a battered, $10 Care Bear in my daughter's room that knows about that many. The Elmo craze of 1996 had that "wow" factor. I don't see the "wow" factor here.

Sure it might sell well, but there won't be significant numbers of people clawing over each other to get the thing, and given that the producer is the one pushing the "hot item" tack, you can bet they made boatloads of the things.

All in all, demand will be much lower for this Elmo than for the 1996 one, and supply will be much higher. End result: no craze.

Sure, quite a few stores will likely sell out as Christmas nears, but the problem at that point in time is not lack of supply, but rather that the distribution system can't handle the excess shipping demands. Tons of good products are unavailable in stores in the few days before Christmas because there simply isn't a way to move and stock that much product in that short of a time.

This ain't got no chance, despite the fact that whoever made the thing would like the rest of the world to think so.

I wonder if Guitar Hero has a chance, though.

I think a problem is that market is much more competitive now with the new technology and change in taste.

[WrongWay]

Says your child's name? So? I can do that too. The thing only knows 20 other phrases? Whopee. We've got a battered, $10 Care Bear in my daughter's room that knows about that many. The Elmo craze of 1996 had that "wow" factor. I don't see the "wow" factor here.

I think you are looking at last years Personalized Elmo Doll and not this years Elmo knows your name doll.

November 1st, 2005 the Elmo Knows your name doll came out.

This years Doll hooks up to your computer by a USB cable. You program the doll on your computer with your kids names, their friends name, thier favorite animals and colors, their favorite songs and stories, and then you can also program your child's daily schedule into the doll. After you have done all this programming on your computer you then download all this information into the doll. To make changes with the doll all you have to do is hook the doll back up to your computer and download the new information.

All this for only 39.99 seems pretty awesome to me. Then again I was born before anyone thought about putting a microchip into a doll, so a doll could tell your child when it is time to get up, have breakfast, eat lunch, have dinner and finally go to sleep, like this years Elmo does.

[cthomer5000]

You can also now include KB Toys to the list.

Elmo is now Sold out at KB Toys.
currently available on their site.

[WrongWay]

currently available on their site.
Damn, my credit card must of declined so that they had to put all the Elmo's I ordered back. :D

[Galaxy]

WrongWay,
What is your obession with a 4-6 year old kid doll? You should be obessed with the X-Box, FOF, and porn.

[WrongWay]

currently available on their site.
Hey, Hey, my credit card must of went through, because now the doll is sold out again at KB Toys.




Why am I so obsesses with this? You have to read the first 2 pages for an answer to that. With so many people here in my face telling me what an idiot I was for making such an outlandish prediction this little doll has me checking toy stores morning and night so I can prove them all wrong.


Isn't it amazing that RaidersArmy, ThunderingHerd and the rest, have like the cockroaches they are, completely vanished from this thread; now that I have turned the lights on and proven that Elmo is quickly selling out everywhere?

[Raiders Army]

Haven't disappeared...I don't think you've proved anything. When it's in the news as the "it" item for Christmas that's when you can say that your prediction was true.

[BrianD]

Target online store has them available in 2 to 6 weeks.

[Raiders Army]

Dola, I have a 7 and a 4 year old. Neither of them wants it.

[Joe]

I have yet to hear about this toy as being a must-have from anywhere other than this thread.

[vex]

I tried to pick up Tropico, it was sold out. Must be the hot seller this season.

[Karlifornia]

I talked with Cadbury H. Kay-Bee, the found of Kay-Bee Toys, and he told me that Say My Name Elmo is actually the the worst-selling product they've ever carried. People only started buying it out of pity, and now it's become a "hot toy" this Holiday season. He also said he was thinking of hiring WrongWay as a consultant/Elmo expert.

[cthomer5000]

I have yet to hear about this toy as being a must-have from anywhere other than this thread.
Exactly. And I've never even heard of the existence of this toy at all outside this thread.

[ThunderingHERD]

Just a small sampling:

http://www.newsadvance.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=LNA%2FMGArticle%2FLNA_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1128768367405&path=!news!archive



No single standout was reported among toys, and popular items included Hasbro Inc.’s Idog, Fisher-Price’s Dora the Explorer’s Talking Kitchen, and Zizzle Inc.’s iZ, according to John Barbour, president of Toys “R” Us’ U.S. division, who reported “brisk” business.

http://www.tribune-democrat.com/cnhi/tribunedemocrat/homepage/local_story_329234009.html?keyword=leadpicturestory



Hot items at the toy store this year were the new Bratz dolls and Gameboys, said a store employee. Though the Bratz dolls that sold for less than $10 were popular, they did not give the Tickle Me Elmo dolls of years past a run for their money.

Hasbro Inc.’s Idog, Fisher-Price’s Dora the Explorer’s Talking Kitchen and Zizzle Inc.’s iZ, also are popular, said John Barbour, president of the U.S. division of Toys ‘R’ Us. He reported “brisk” business.

http://web.baytownsun.com/story.lasso?wcd=23903



During Black Friday, the Target store on Garth Road sold out of several toys, including a Barbie “Shop with Me” toy cash register and Hasbro’s iDog, both priced at $29.99.

The iDog, made from the same company that created the Furby, is a palm-sized robot dog that moves to music beats and lights up if it is placed in front of a speaker or is connected to a musical device.

The Wal-Mart store on Garth Road sold all of its marked down “blitz” toys Friday, which includes a Nintendo Game Boy Advance, a Jeep Power Wheels 4x4 Ride-On Vehicle, a Star Wars Electronic Lightsaber, a Care Bears plush doll with DVD and a Sponge Bob Square Pants and Dora the Explorer TV and DVD combination.

The most popular toy this season, sold out in stores as soon as it was available, is Microsoft’s Xbox 360.

http://www.thereporter.com/business/ci_3257120



Store director Cleary also said that Toys R Us top sellers include Barbie, Hot Wheels Accelerators, Dora The Explorer items, and remote control cars that resemble Lincoln Navigators ($89.99), as well as mini-motos or go-carts made to look like Cadillac Escalades ($269.99). The Power Wheels Barbie Jammin' Jeep ($219.99) is also popular, ranking in the top 25 toys on Amazon's hot list.

...


Hasbro's iDog ($24.99), a palm-sized dog with a built-in speaker that dances and lights up to MP3s, is Amazon's most popular toy.


http://www.insidebayarea.com/dailyreview/localnews/ci_3254167



Target stores have been busier than last year, a spokesperson said. Opening at 6 a.m., Bay Area stores had an average of 100 waiting at the doors.

Big sellers have been Bratz dolls, Star Wars Lightsabers, the iDog, the KidDesigns Barbie Cash Register and Big Wheels products.

All of these are reports of actual sales, not predictions. You'll notice one thing that they all have in common: no mention of Elmo. In fact, I could not find an article that mentioned Say Your name Elmo as a hot seller. Try putting "Elmo Knows Your Name" (http://news.google.com/news?q=%22elmo+knows+your+name%22&sourceid=mozilla-search&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&tab=wn) into a google news search yourself. You'll get exactly two hits: the article that I posted earlier which notes that Elmo is not expected to be a huge seller and... the article that I posted earlier which notes that Elmo is not expected to be a huge seller again.

There are only two things that can be the case here. One is that you have an extraordinarily underdeveloped sense of reason, which leads you to make ridiculous presumptions and back them up with nonsensical syllogism. One is that you think so little of the reasoning ability of others that you continue to make paper thin arguments, in some vain hope that no one will wise to their fallaciousness. Before you take this option, reallize that, just like the first option, it requires you to be quite dumb. You're also a complete waste of time, either way. Everyone is aware of how wrong you are, and you're only make yourself look more pathetic in trying to defend yourself. We just want to know which is it: are you extraordinarily stupid, or just really stupid and also insulting?

[WrongWay]

Then why has this doll completely sold out in retail stores and now has also sold out in online stores? And, all this has happened in the last 5 days.

Can you explain that?

So, no I don't believe your reasoning that just because Elmo has completely sold out of all retail stores and most online stores in under a week does not mean it is a big seller this year. Any idea why Elmo is selling out so quickly everywhere?

The facts are this doll in under a weeks time has almost sold out everywhere in the United States. Any comment?

[Joe]

Then why has this doll completely sold out in retail stores and now has also sold out in online stores? And, all this has happened in the last 5 days.

Can you explain that?

So, no I don't believe your reasoning that just because Elmo has completely sold out of all retail stores and most online stores in under a week does not mean it is a big seller this year. Any idea why Elmo is selling out so quickly everywhere?

The facts are this doll in under a weeks time has almost sold out everywhere in the United States. Any comment?

Because it was not expected to be a big seller and was thus underproduced?

[cthomer5000]

search the completed auctions on eBay. They're selling for face value or less.

[Galaxy]

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=3933954
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B00080VMLS/qid=1133676757/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/102-4799088-1595311?v=glance&s=toys&n=507846
Still in stock at what would be the largest retailers online and retail wise. Looking through it, this may not be a "seller" because they got so many variations of Elmo doing something? Why buy a Elmo Knows your Name when you can buy Potty With Elmo!

[kcchief19]

Ouch ... this hurts.

Amazon's Top 100 Best Selling Dolls
(http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/toys/171569/toys/0/0/1/ref=pd_ts_pg_1/002-7303051-3983253)
Dora Knows Your Name is No. 21. Pooh Knows Your Name and Elmo Knows Your Name are unranked. Oof.

And if that doesn't hurt enough, this Sunday's Toys R Us ad (http://toysrus.richfx.com/catalog_toysrus/roto_e2_2005_a/roto_e2_2005_a.html) features all three dolls. Dora Knows Your Name is featured prominently, Elmo Knows Your Name is located in the background of the ad behind Pooh Knows Your Name out of focus.

[WrongWay]

Ouch ... this hurts.

Amazon's Top 100 Best Selling Dolls
(http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/toys/171569/toys/0/0/1/ref=pd_ts_pg_1/002-7303051-3983253)
Dora Knows Your Name is No. 21. Pooh Knows Your Name and Elmo Knows Your Name are unranked. Oof.

I think I am going to cry Foul on this one as every single one of those items ranked in the top 25 are currently available for shipping. You would think if you were ranking the best selling toys for Christmas some of them would be out of stock already. Unless you were trying to "Push" these toys.


And, Remember that Elmo just went on sale last month. I would imagine these sales figures cover the entire year.


Anyway, right now Elmo can only be bought at 2 place in the United States. Only ToysRus and Wal~MArt online currently have Elmo in stock. The rest of the stores are all out of stock.

[cthomer5000]

how about eBay? If there was any demand for the doll, why aren't they selling at anything more than face value?

[vex]

I think I am going to cry Foul on this one as every single one of those items ranked in the top 25 are currently available for shipping. You would think if you were ranking the best selling toys for Christmas some of them would be out of stock already. Unless you were trying to "Push" these toys.


And, Remember that Elmo just went on sale last month. I would imagine these sales figures cover the entire year.


Anyway, right now Elmo can only be bought at 2 place in the United States. Only ToysRus and Wal~MArt online currently have Elmo in stock. The rest of the stores are all out of stock.You checked all 25? :rolleyes:

[NoMyths]

Once again, "WrongWay" has proven his name to be accurate.

It's uncanny, really.

[WrongWay]

You checked all 100? :rolleyes:
What part of "ranked in the top 25" didn't you understand?



As far as ebay go; I have no idea why people are buying this doll for $45, $55, $65, $75, and even $127.50 when it is still available for 38.88 from Wal~Mart with a .97 shipping offer.

[vex]

What part of "ranked in the top 25" didn't you understand?



As far as ebay go; I have no idea why people are buying this doll for $45, $55, $65, $75, and even $127.50 when it is still available for 38.88 from Wal~Mart with a .97 shipping offer.
heh, I saw that and edited, then saw this, sorry bout that.

Rest of the post, still stands.

[WrongWay]

Once again, "WrongWay" has proven his name to be accurate.

It's uncanny, really.
Great another person that reads the first 2 posts in a thread and then jumps to the end to make their own post. :rolleyes:


If you would of read the entire 3 pages worth of posts you would of found out that I am 100% in the right on this.

Sold out Across the Nation.
Sold out at Target.com
Sold out at Sears.com
Sold out ar JCPenny.com
Sold out at KBToys.com

What am I missing?

[cthomer5000]

the last 15 completed "elmo knows your name" auctions on eBay and their final sale prices:

35.80
54.99
34.00
36.99
45.99
49.99 (zero bids, did not sell)
35.00
36.00
36.00
39.99 (zero bids, did not sell)
36.99 (zero bids, did not sell)
33.99
45.00
29.64
35.00

Yes, this all screams "THE hot toy of 2005!" to me.

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

[vex]

The $29.64 person is laughing at the $54.99 person. I just know it.

[WrongWay]

the last 15 completed "elmo knows your name" auctions on eBay and their final sale prices:

35.80
54.99
34.00
36.99
45.99
49.99 (zero bids, did not sell)
35.00
36.00
36.00
39.99 (zero bids, did not sell)
36.99 (zero bids, did not sell)
33.99
45.00
29.64
35.00

Yes, this all screams "THE hot toy of 2005!" to me.

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
Don't forget to include the shipping. I have seen some sellers selling the doll for $35.00, but charging an additional $49 for shipping.

[cthomer5000]

Don't forget to include the shipping. I have seen some sellers selling the doll for $35.00, but charging an additional $49 for shipping.
everyone i just checked was 10 or under. thanks for playing, better luck next time.

[WrongWay]

Untill Wal~MArt runs out there is no reason in the world these people should be buying them from ebay. Right Now Wal~MArt has the best deal at the $38.88+$0.97shipping.



That is what I am waiting on before things really start to get out of hand. ONce ToysRus & Wal~Mart run out of Elmos, then it is going to get really crazy.

[cthomer5000]

If you are this confident, how many have you bought personally?

[WrongWay]

If you are this confident, how many have you bought personally?
1. I already said I missed the boat on this one. I should of picked up 5 when I bought my original 1 at Wal~Mart. Right now all the stores in my area are already sold out.

[ThunderingHERD]

Not that it matters, but do a search for iDog on any online retailer you care to mention. They're sold out also. In fact, they're sold out on Walmart and others that Elmo is not. I haven't bothered to check, but I'm sure the same is true of other toys that are <i>actually</i> hot sellers this Christmas.

WrongWay--I would like to hear your explanation for the fact that every media establishment that cares to report on toy sales mentions a dozen other products without mentioning the Elmo doll. This should be amusing.

[cthomer5000]

1. I already said I missed the boat on this one. I should of picked up 5 when I bought my original 1 at Wal~Mart. Right now all the stores in my area are already sold out.
But if you're confident things are going to get "really crazy," why not order a few now from Wal-Mart?

[ThunderingHERD]

1. I already said I missed the boat on this one. I should of picked up 5 when I bought my original 1 at Wal~Mart. Right now all the stores in my area are already sold out.


But you haven't missed the boat. Walmart.com is still selling them--you should buy them out.

[vex]

But if you're confident things are going to get "really crazy," why not order a few now from Wal-Mart?
Exactly. Why not just buy 5 from walmart.com?

[NoMyths]

What am I missing?A clue?

[WrongWay]

But you haven't missed the boat. Walmart.com is still selling them--you should buy them out.
That is not really my thing. I like the math of predicting races, but don't like to actually go and bet on the Dogs.



And, the little Technical media is talking about the Elmo's and Furbies of this Christmas.



All I want to do is sit back and wait for Elmo to sell out at ToysRus and Wal~MArt. Then I will declare victory and laugh in your face. :D

[ThunderingHERD]

I'm a little drunk right now, but I must say I'm laughing my ass off. I really thought that my last post before I went out would convince WrongWay to admit his wrongness. At the very least I thought he would abandon this thread. I've been trying to give him outs now for a while. Apparently he prefers the humiliation he's suffering now.

[vex]

That is not really my thing. I like the math of predicting races, but don't like to actually go and bet on the Dogs.



And, the little Technical media is talking about the Elmo's and Furbies of this Christmas.



All I want to do is sit back and wait for Elmo to sell out at ToysRus and Wal~MArt. Then I will declare victory and laugh in your face. :D

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>WrongWay (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/member.php?u=4052)<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_972734", true); </SCRIPT>
Knows What "Dola" Means

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 830


</TD><TD class=alt1><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by Raiders Army

5 hours to go on ebay and selling for $32.50.

hxxp://cgi.ebay.com/ELMO-KNOWS-YOUR-NAME-INTERACTIVE-PLUSH-FISHER-PRICE_W0QQitemZ6016345331QQcategoryZ19229QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Your Used, "As-Is" Elmo just sold for $44.00

For what it is worth: Everyone seller over at ebay is claiming that this doll is already sold out everwhere.


You want me to make a Guarantee? I guarantee if you buy this doll right now for $39.99 you wil be able to turn around and sell it for $75.00 Plus shipping by Dec 20th.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


So if I buy it, I can't get that $75, you'll reimburse me? Because you said you guarantee. Right?

[WrongWay]

So if I buy it, I can't get that $75, you'll reimburse me? Because you said you guarantee. Right?
Correct. First you pay me the $127.50 that I have seen the doll go for on ebay, or we can wait till December 20th and see if it breaks the $200.00 limit and then I will gladly pay you the $75.00.



ThunderingHerd I don't understand how you could possibly think you are right. You said Elmos were not out of stock anywhere, That they were available everywhere??? Well are they?

Sears? Nope you are wrong.
Target? Nope you are wrong again.
JCPenny? Nope you are wrong yet again.
KBToy? Nope you are wrong yet even again.
Local Stores? Nope you are wrong again for another time?

LOL how does it feel to be wrong everytime? Hey, what is that big "L" on your forehead. :D

[vex]

Correct. First you pay me the $127.50 that I have seen the doll go for on ebay, we can wait and see if it breaks the $200.00 limit and then I will gladly pay you the $75.00.





Yeah, that really sounds like the words of a confident man.

[vex]

Dola, you said:

" I guarantee if you buy this doll right now for $39.99 you wil be able to turn around and sell it for $75.00 Plus shipping by Dec 20th."

What you said was that I could go get one for $39.99 and you guarantee I could sell for $75. Like that.

[WrongWay]

Yeah, that really sounds like the words of a confident man.
Does this mean you are not interest in my little deal?

[vex]

Does this mean you are not interest in my little deal?
I take it you're not interested in your little guarantee, as you said it the first time?

[vex]

First you have to find one. They are quickly selling out. :)

Then, I guarantee you will be able to sell that doll for $75.00 by December 20th.
I hear walmart.com has a few.

[WrongWay]

First you have to find one. They are quickly selling out. :)

Then, I guarantee you will be able to sell that doll for $75.00 by December 20th.

[ThunderingHERD]

Oh lord. Are you still trying to call me out? And without responding to the pertinent points, no less.

Please, understand that I am no less amused by you from now on--I just choose to laugh at you in private.

[WrongWay]

Oh lord. Are you still trying to call me out? And without responding to the pertinent points, no less.

Well, are you still claiming that Elmos are widely available and not sold out anywhere?




I think that is where we left off. :p

[Raiders Army]

Not to threadjack, but I'm interested in getting this watch for Christmas. It looks pretty cool:

http://www.victorywatches.com/mobius-super.htm

I'm looking for the Light Graphite/Sport Red one. Can't find it anywhere. It's not even on Nike's website and the only ones going on ebay are the black and teal ones.

[Logan]

I can't believe I just read this entire thread.

[Galaxy]

And, Remember that Elmo just went on sale last month. I would imagine these sales figures cover the entire year.



Which is why they have little stock. A way to market the item as "hot", when in reality, it isn't.

[ISiddiqui]

Btw, I'd like to remind people what the OP said:

Anyway, This is my prediction for the must have doll of this season.Now after all these side boasts and claims, the issue still is that this prediction isn't correct and other dolls are in much higher demand (and more "must have"). Even if WrongWay is correct in it'll sell out and it'll go for $X (which I don't think he will, mind), the original claim still falls flat.

[vtbub]

Currently the 39th ranked FISHER-PRICE toy at Amazon, with horrible reviews and available for next day shipping.

[kcchief19]

I think I am going to cry Foul on this one as every single one of those items ranked in the top 25 are currently available for shipping. You would think if you were ranking the best selling toys for Christmas some of them would be out of stock already. Unless you were trying to "Push" these toys.
...
Anyway, right now Elmo can only be bought at 2 place in the United States. Only ToysRus and Wal~MArt online currently have Elmo in stock. The rest of the stores are all out of stock. Um ... ToysRUs is the online store for Amazon, which means Amazon has it as well, which is why Amazon.com isn't listed as one of the locations where it is "sold out." By logic, you would assume that IF Elmo Knows Your Name where the hottest selling toy around AND IF Amazon/ToysRUs and Wal-Mart were the only places you could get it THEN it would be one of the best sellers at that location.

I'm awaiting how you explain that Amazon/ToysRUs is one of only two locations it is allegedly is available and it isn't one of the best 100 selling DOLLS -- we're not even talking all toys.

The whole "Knows Your Name" concept hasn't been a big hit apparently. Dora is a ToysRUs exclusive and it's only No. 21 there -- yet it's selling more than Elmo.

But here's a deal for you ... I'll go on Amazon.com and order my Elmo which will ship within 24 hours. You go online and buy me an X-box 360 with hard drive. I'll send you a check upon completion of the deal for $360, the difference in retail price between the two. We then put them on Ebay with the same shipping costs. When the sale is done, I get the profits from the Xbox, you get the profit from Elmo.

Of course, the problem is that I would spend $400 for Elmo and the price difference, while you'd have to shell out at least $800 or a lot more to but an Xbox, since they are sold out everywhere. Then you'd get $35-$75 back from me, while I'd get about $800-$1000 from you. I'd double my money, and you would lose more than $300.

Even if you were willing to take that deal, I wouldn't do it with you because I don't trust you. But it would be a great way to make some quick money.

[Karlifornia]

This thread should win a Golden Scribe for most moronic thread of 2005. Actually, this maybe the most moronic thread I've ever read on this board.

[cthomer5000]

This thread should win a Golden Scribe for most moronic thread of 2005. Actually, this maybe the most moronic thread I've ever read on this board.
I think it's the greatest thread ever.

[Joe]

agree

[QuikSand]

Cats play with yarn. Dogs chase their tails.

WW posts stupid crap and apparently enjoys having other forum members run around in circles trying to prove how stupid his crap is. Call it what you will, but if you see it for what it is, and just ignore it and him, he loses.

[TargetPractice6]

Cats play with yarn. Dogs chase their tails.

WW posts stupid crap and apparently enjoys having other forum members run around in circles trying to prove how stupid his crap is. Call it what you will, but if you see it for what it is, and just ignore it and him, he loses.Bingo.

[Karlifornia]

Okay, the bidding is getting crazy now:

hxxp://cgi.ebay.com/Elmo-Knows-your-name-talking-doll-Hard-to-find-NEW_W0QQitemZ6017695539QQcategoryZ19229QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

[Joe]

holy shit that's crazy man

[WrongWay]

Currently the 39th ranked FISHER-PRICE toy at Amazon, with horrible reviews and available for next day shipping.Thanks, This proves my point.

Elmo went from being completely unranked yesterday to being ranked 39th today for most Doll sold in this year, WOW, and he has only been out for a month, while all those other dolls have been out for the whole year.

Thanks again partner. :)

[Galaxy]

Thanks, This proves my point.

Elmo went from being completely unranked yesterday to being ranked 39th today for most Doll sold in this year, WOW, and he has only been out for a month, while all those other dolls have been out for the whole year.

Thanks again partner. :)

No it does not prove your point. It is 39th in DOLLS. You said it would be the HOTTEST TOY this year.

[vtbub]

Uh it's not the 39th best seling doll, it's the 39th best selling FISHER-PRICE TOY!

The speak and say barn is a better seller.

[Galaxy]

Uh it's not the 39th best seling doll, it's the 39th best selling FISHER-PRICE TOY!

The speak and say barn is a better seller.
Thanks for the correction...

[stevew]

No it does not prove your point. It is 39th in DOLLS. You said it would be the HOTTEST TOY this year.

Duh, thats cause there arent any anywhere and they are all sold out. I bought a pallet full of these bitches, and am waiting until the day before Christmas to put them all on Ebay for a buy it now price of 89.99. I'll make a fuckin fortune!

[Galaxy]

Duh, thats cause there arent any anywhere and they are all sold out. I bought a pallet full of these bitches, and am waiting until the day before Christmas to put them all on Ebay for a buy it now price of 89.99. I'll make a fuckin fortune!

Damn, and I though the wealth was in the X-Box 360's! :(

[vex]

Damn, and I though the wealth was in the X-Box 360's! :(
Just in the homemade boxes.

[ThunderingHERD]

Just to be completely honest, I think that I should make it known that I personally am also out of stock of the Elmo Knows Your Name doll. So there's another feather in your cap WrongWay.

[stevew]

Just to be completely honest, I think that I should make it known that I personally am also out of stock of the Elmo Knows Your Name doll. So there's another feather in your cap WrongWay.
Hey, I'm selling them for 89.99 if you need one. I'll give you a special "Friends of the WWBL" discount if you ask.

[kcchief19]

Just because I'm a jackass who can't let things go ...

I've been recruited by the woman in the office next door to help her find a Lego Knights Kingdom Chess set that Lego sells for $50, but apparently everyone is out of and it's going for $150 and up on Ebay. I've been searching for a while and haven't found one less than $140 and no one seems to have it in stock.

But you'll be glad to know that Walmart can ship an Elmo Knows Your Name to me right now, because it's still in stock.

[George]

I think it's the greatest thread ever.

I'm enjoying it! :p

[Galaxy]

Just because I'm a jackass who can't let things go ...

I've been recruited by the woman in the office next door to help her find a Lego Knights Kingdom Chess set that Lego sells for $50, but apparently everyone is out of and it's going for $150 and up on Ebay. I've been searching for a while and haven't found one less than $140 and no one seems to have it in stock.

But you'll be glad to know that Walmart can ship an Elmo Knows Your Name to me right now, because it's still in stock.

LOL....

[Desnudo]

stevew must have bought the last pallet.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B00080VMLS/qid=1134754883/sr=8-3/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl21/103-0525170-7715803?v=glance&s=toys&n=507846

[Raiders Army]

stevew must have bought the last pallet.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B00080VMLS/qid=1134754883/sr=8-3/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl21/103-0525170-7715803?v=glance&s=toys&n=507846
Damn. Now I'm gonna have to buy a Dora one and I don't know any Spanish.

[stevew]

Since im easily as big of a jackass as KC.

Today i was shopping at wal mart, buying some groceries and a couple last minute toys for my eldest daughter. Well i look up at an endcap, and notice the familiar Pooh knows your name doll. Well beside him, i see not 1, not 10, not 20, but 31 of the Elmo Knows Your Name doll.

Game.Set.Match.

[GreenMonster]

Since im easily as big of a jackass as KC.

Today i was shopping at wal mart, buying some groceries and a couple last minute toys for my eldest daughter. Well i look up at an endcap, and notice the familiar Pooh knows your name doll. Well beside him, i see not 1, not 10, not 20, but 31 of the Elmo Knows Your Name doll.

Game.Set.Match.

It was probably just empty boxes for sale..

[WrongWay]

LOL Where did I leave off?


Sears? Nope you are wrong.
Target? Nope you are wrong again.
JCPenny? Nope you are wrong yet again.
KBToy? Nope you are wrong yet even again.
Local Stores? Nope you are wrong again for another time?


And Now we can add ToysRus to the list.


How does my December 20th prediction look now? :D

[Raiders Army]

LOL Where did I leave off?



And Now we can add ToysRus to the list.


How does my December 20th prediction look now? :D
Are. You. Frickin. Serious.

[Joe]

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=3933954

available now, buy them up!

[stevew]

Today is pretty much the last wide scale full shopping day that most normal people have before christmas. Maybe some will get the friday off before christmas to go shopping. Most toys of any merit do sell out near christmas eve, for a day or two. 31 fucking elmos, I have to head out to the store tomorrow and pick something up, ill be interested to see how many are left.

[Joe]

Today is pretty much the last wide scale full shopping day that most normal people have before christmas. Maybe some will get the friday off before christmas to go shopping. Most toys of any merit do sell out near christmas eve, for a day or two. 31 fucking elmos, I have to head out to the store tomorrow and pick something up, ill be interested to see how many are left.

I'll guess 31. Or maybe they'll have more because of returns since Elmo doesn't know your name: http://worldoftoys.blogspot.com/2005/11/elmo-knows-your-name.html

[WrongWay]

I like the hacking sites out there where they now have Elmo using adult language.

"Get up you lazy bastard"

[AZSpeechCoach]

I like the hacking sites out there where they now have Elmo using adult language.

"Get up you lazy bastard"

My wife wants a hacked version..."math is hard...so is my pee-pee."

[Airhog]

I see quite a few listed on E-bay, but not a single one is selling for more than what you can find in the stores. In fact, most a selling cheaper than that.

[kcchief19]

Well, the Elmo market has crashed. If you're desperate and willing to pay overnight shipping, Elmo bargains abound on Ebay. I see 14 listed right now, none with bids and three with buy it now/starting prices at or below MSRP. One poor soul in the Ebay Stores section is even trying to unload an unopened in box for a buy it now price of $35.

This was fun. Let's do it again next year.

[Galaxy]

Well, the Elmo market has crashed. If you're desperate and willing to pay overnight shipping, Elmo bargains abound on Ebay. I see 14 listed right now, none with bids and three with buy it now/starting prices at or below MSRP. One poor soul in the Ebay Stores section is even trying to unload an unopened in box for a buy it now price of $35.

This was fun. Let's do it again next year.

Agree....

[Ksyrup]

This was fun. Let's do it again next year.


OK!


Top-secret Elmo revealed!

Fisher-Price's 10th anniversary of the Sesame Street doll is a hysterically laughing, belly-clutching, floor-thumping extreme version of itself.

By Parija B. Kavilanz (http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/19/news/companies/elmo_tmx/mailto:[email protected]), CNNMoney.com staff writer

September 19 2006: 9:51 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The much-anticipated top-secret 10th-anniversary Elmo, code-named "T.M.X. Elmo" is finally here - and it's the hysterically laughing, belly-clutching, floor-thumping Elmo.

Fisher-Price, a division of No. 1 toymaker Mattel (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=MAT) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=MAT)), unveiled the new T.M.X. Elmo to the world Tuesday.

"T.M.X." stands for 2 things - "Tickle Me extreme" or "Tickle Me 10," representing the toy's 10-year milestone.

Elmo fans should grab the new toy while they can because industry analysts are already anticipating a shortage of Elmo T.M.X. over the holiday shopping season.
Some quick-thinking consumers hoping to make a juicy profit already put up their Elmo T.M.X. for sale on eBay at double the price.

Fisher-Price has been extremely tight-lipped about the special Elmo. Only a handful of company executives and a few toy industry analysts had seen the toy.

This new Elmo reacts to a "tickling" as soon as you turn it on. Its arms flap, it falls to the floor, rolls around and simply can't stop laughing.

T.M.X. Elmo has three tickle spots on his chin, tummy or foot. When you tickle Elmo once on any of the tickle spots, he starts to laugh and slap his leg twice, then falls down into a sitting position and rocks himself back up to standing while laughing.
When they tickle him a second time, he repeats the pattern, then sits down again and falls backwards, kicking his feet while laughing even harder. And on the third tickle he rolls over onto his tummy, thumping his hand on the floor in laughter and then stands back up again.

The new doll is priced at $39.99.

According to the Toy Industry Association (TIA), total annual toy sales last year totaled $21.9 billion, down 0.2 percent from the previous year.

So can the furry red monster single-handedly turn things around for the industry this year?

Some industry watchers speculate that it will take more than a brilliant marketing ploy
from Fisher-Price to maneuver that.

Indeed, toymakers like Mattel and Hasbro (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=HAS) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=HAS)) are fighting hard to expand their market share at a time when many more kids are shunning traditional toys in favor of consumer electronics like Apple (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=AAPL) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=AAPL))'s iPod and portable gaming platforms like
Sony (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=SNE) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=SNE))'s PSP.

Tough to get?

Jim Silver, editor of Toy Wishes magazine, said Elmo T.M.X. has the potential of being one of the blockbuster toys of the year, especially in the pre-school category.

However, the new Elmo could very well become "extremely" hard to find.

"Because the technology is so complicated, it's taking longer to make the new Elmo. Fisher-Price is only making between 50 to 60 percent of the full-year production of the new Elmo," Silver said, adding that Fisher-Price typically produces a million and a half units of Elmo for the holidays.

"There's going to be a shortage for T.M.X.," he said.

If Fisher-Price scores a hit with Elmo, then a shortage could work in the company's favor by boosting demand for product. On the contrary, Silver said no toymaker wants to lose sales of an extra 500,000 units during the key November and December period that accounts for as much as 50 percent of toymaker's profits and sales.

Neil Friedman, president of Fisher-Price Brands, said he's confident the company can meet this year's demand target as long as Elmo sells at the levels the company has
anticipated for it.

"If T.M.X. becomes a runaway hit then we may have to chase the demand with extra production," he told CNNMoney.com.

Friedman said Fisher-Price worked 18 months to develop the technologically advanced T.M.X.

"Our job is to be innovative," he said. "We'll use technology where we feel it can enhance out toy product and not just for technology's sake."

There will be yet another new Elmo next year, "That's all we're saying about that. Stay tuned," Friedman said

In the meantime, Wal-Mart (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=WMT) (Charts (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=WMT)), KB Toys and Toys "R" Us are keen to exploit the Elmo buzz to boost sales at their stores. These retailers already offered their customers preorders of T.M.X. without listing any of the product details.

Wal-Mart and other toy sellers also plan to hold special Elmo events Tuesday at some locations to coincide with the launch.

[stevew]

ROTFLMRAO Elmo. I like it.

And I'm considering getting my 2 year old the "Dora knows Your Name" doll that just came out.

[Toddzilla]

We got our daughter the "Elmo knows your name" doll last Christmas when she still liked Elmo, but she wasn't impressed. She would have him sit in on our tea parties, but she wasn't too excited about him saying "Hi Lesley!".

[stevew]

Okay, so today I should go to Walmart and layaway like 20 of these elmos, and then wait it out, and sell them on ebay when they are going for 2X retail? Sounds like a viable plan i think.

[vex]

Not if Wal-Mart gets rid of layaway.

[stevew]

Not if Wal-Mart gets rid of layaway.

Oh, layaway there is history.....but only after this christmas is over.

[Samdari]

ROTFLMRAO Elmo. I like it.

And I'm considering getting my 2 year old the "Dora knows Your Name" doll that just came out.

Ugh, I was blissfully unaware this existed.

Thanks.

[kcchief19]

I'm thinking of cashing in my 401k and investing in a cache of TMX Elmos. Based on WW analysis of last year's phenomenon, I should be able to retired by Dec. 21.

But you can take your TMX Pooh and TMX Dora and shove them up your TMX ass.

[Raiders Army]

LOL. Thanks for resurrecting this thread.

[oliegirl]

I broke down and bought one of these this afternoon (they had about 6 or 7 left of them at target) and I have to say it is the cutest thing I've ever seen!!!!! The cat isn't really wild about it, she freaks out every time Elmo starts to giggle, but other than that - it's a hit at the Oliegirl household!!!! :)

[Ksyrup]

On another board I visit, this subject came up and here was the opening post...

"Buy as many of these suckers as you can find at walmart, target, toys r us or wherever. These things are hot. I just saw one go for over 160 bucks. they are 40 bucks. I just purchased 8 at Walmart. The first 3 walmarts I called were sold out. No joke. Buy the new TMX Elmo. Just do an ebay search!"

[Joe]

yeah... I did an ebay search and there are a few above retail price. All others that have a high price are a buy it now with no bids that started out high. WTF ever.

[Passacaglia]

Someone just saw Wall Street.

[Joe]

Here we go... wrongway is at it again


TAMPA - Even Elmo would not be amused.

The hysterical, red furry doll, TMX Elmo, caused a fracas Friday at the Target store on Gandy Boulevard. Police say a customer became angry when other customers beat him to the last dolls in the store.

"Shortly after 8 a.m., the craze over the Tickle Me Elmo doll escalated from excitement to anger," Tampa police spokeswoman Laura McElroy said.

Demand outstripped supply of the doll, which slaps its knee, falls over and rolls around laughing when it's tickled.

A customer, known as the "Hot Wheels guy" for his habit of buying toy cars, threatened another customer, police said.

According to the 911 tape, the customer who was threatened identified himself as Andrew Bell. He said the Hot Wheels guy wore all black and had dark sunglasses and a black mullet.

"His main threat was if I ever showed up at this particular Target again, he was going to do damage and kill me," Bell says on the tape. "I never saw him before. What it was was an issue over the stupid Tickle Me Elmo freakin' doll. He was trying to run into the store and grab one, and three other people, including myself, beat him to it. So he decided to take it upon himself to make sure I never showed up at the store again by threatening me with my life and he had a loaded pistol on him and he was going to use it."

Bell added, "I think he should at least be banned from the store. I don't know what crime he committed, but it was serious. It was real serious."

McElroy said the unidentified customer became enraged when another customer, apparently Bell, grabbed the last two dolls and handed one to an elderly woman standing next to him.

Fisher-Price spokeswoman Brenda Andolina said the doll has received unprecedented media coverage and customer response since it was unveiled Tuesday. The demand has caught retailers off-guard, she said, leaving some store shelves empty.

She said there is no need for panic because more dolls stocked in warehouses are on the way. "If people just wait a week or so or a couple days, they'll be in a better in stock position," she said.

On Friday afternoon, the toy section end display for the $34.95 doll was stripped clean, except for some Elmo Giggle and Shake chairs and a couple of TMX Elmo gift cards.

Shopper Anna Marie Bishop of Brandon pushed a shopping cart with her 2-year-old son, Alex, past the display. She had no interest in the doll. "I think it's annoying," she said. She wouldn't fight someone to get Elmo, either. "God, no. It's not worth it."

[ThunderingHERD]

LOL. Thanks for resurrecting this thread.


Some Good Times I had forgotten about.

Reading back through it, I have to pat myself on the back for <a href="http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=976005&postcount=129"> this one.</a> Some good work by everyone involved, though.

[stevew]

Some Good Times I had forgotten about.

Reading back through it, I have to pat myself on the back for <a href="http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=976005&postcount=129"> this one.</a> Some good work by everyone involved, though.

I'll give you props. You were on fire in this thread last year.

[Logan]

I bought my 16-month old niece the TMX Elmo over the weekend. After just getting an email from my sister telling me how she loves it, and putting me in a great mood, I had the brainstorm of finding this thread and spreading cheer to others. So here's a gratuitous 5 month bump; hopefully it provides some nice entertainment on a boring Wednesday.

[Fidatelo]

My nephew has one of these things, it is great! I think I play with it more than the kids when I'm over. Elmo's laugh is infectious.

[Subby]

Yeah but I think he may have been right about Michelle Wie...

[Logan]

My nephew has one of these things, it is great! I think I play with it more than the kids when I'm over. Elmo's laugh is infectious.

When I first gave it to my niece, she gave a couple smiles and then went back to playing with 10 of her other toys. Meanwhile, all the adults were cracking up and playing with it, in marvel of how it worked. I was happy to hear she got more into it once she was less distracted.