AFC West

[Raiders Army]

Just thinking what if they hadn't realigned the NFL a couple of years ago. You would have the Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, and Seahawks in the same division. That's pretty brutal.

Edit: Not to mention the RBs: Tomlinson, Alexander, Holmes/Johnson, Jordan, and whoever the Broncos have (which is usually good due to their line).

[wade moore]

Hah, you put Jordan in the same sentence as the other 4.... that's funny...

[Raiders Army]

Stephen Davis and Edgerrin James are the only ones who have more rushing TDs than he does (other than the others on the list).

[Ksyrup]

Stephen Davis and Edgerrin James are the only ones who have more rushing TDs than he does (other than the others on the list).
I didn't realize the NFL was a fantasy league.

On a related note, I've been wondering abut this...you know how in baseball, we have sabermetrics, and a bunch of people always talk about how useless certain stats, like BA or RBIs, are? Does something like that exist in football? Are there people running around talking about how TDs scored don't really matter and Shaun Alexander isn't as great a back as everyone thinks he is because his 22 TDs are overrated and a product of the team he's on?

[wade moore]

Stephen Davis and Edgerrin James are the only ones who have more rushing TDs than he does (other than the others on the list).
Ummm..

Alexander - 1388 yards, 282 carries, 4.9 ypc, 22 TDs
James - 1347 yards, 304 carries, 4.4 ypc, 12 TDs
Johnson - 1108 yards, 221 carries, 5.0 ypc, 11 TDs
Tomlinson - 1172 yards, 261 carries, 4.5 ypc, 17 TDs

Jordan - 844 yards, 233 carries, 3.6 ypc, 9 TDs

Which one of these things is not like the others? Which one of these things just doesn't belong?





PS: Be happy I did not use career numbers.

[Ragone]

speaking of stupid.. how dumb will it be when either 10-6 11-5 san diego or kc misses the playoffs so that 7-9 new england gets it because it wins it's shitty division..

[wade moore]

speaking of stupid.. how dumb will it be when either 10-6 11-5 san diego or kc misses the playoffs so that 7-9 new england gets it because it wins it's shitty division..
Ping: WSUCougar and Kodos

[Kodos]

That would never happen. Injustice never occurs. The best teams always make it in!

[Pumpy Tudors]

speaking of stupid.. how dumb will it be when either 10-6 11-5 san diego or kc misses the playoffs so that 7-9 new england gets it because it wins it's shitty division..
If either one of those teams could win in Denver, they wouldn't have to worry about New England. :p

Go Broncos!

:D

[Samdari]

how dumb will it be when either 10-6 11-5 san diego or kc misses the playoffs so that 7-9 new england gets it because it wins it's shitCAN division..

fixed

[st.cronin]

it will be fun to see 7-9 New England end Indy's perfect season in the playoffs... something like 21-17, I imagine, with Brady leading the team on a game winning touchdown drive that uses up the last 8:53 of gametime.

[sterlingice]

On a related note, I've been wondering abut this...you know how in baseball, we have sabermetrics, and a bunch of people always talk about how useless certain stats, like BA or RBIs, are? Does something like that exist in football? Are there people running around talking about how TDs scored don't really matter and Shaun Alexander isn't as great a back as everyone thinks he is because his 22 TDs are overrated and a product of the team he's on?I think the lack of this is due to football having such a small sample size. Few football players play as many games in their career as the oft injured Mike Sweeney played last year in baseball.

Yes, football players get many more chances per game, but there just aren't that many different situations to normalize over since, for instance, a player's stats can be completely skewed by having a 1st place versus 4th place schedule in the NFL.

SI

[sterlingice]

That's another great point- it's very much team oriented versus individual oriented. Just another crazy stat to have to normalize against.

SI

[rkmsuf]

I think the lack of this is due to football having such a small sample size. Few football players play as many games in their career as the oft injured Mike Sweeney played last year in baseball.

Yes, football players get many more chances per game, but there just aren't that many different situations to normalize over since, for instance, a player's stats can be completely skewed by having a 1st place versus 4th place schedule in the NFL.

SI

I think it's just a function of football being a team game where baseball is largely individual. David Ortiz doesn't need any help to hit a homer...it's all him.

Backs, receivers and such need all kinds of things to go right to put up numbers which are a function of his teammates to some degree.

Football Outsiders is the closest to trying to bring a statistically anaylsis of football to life.

[Mo.Raider]

RaidersArmy-

I was watching the Seattle/Eagles game and thinking the same thing. I miss the old Seachickens being in the division (although they would wax us in the broken down state we are in).

Also I thought I would chime in on the Lamont Jordan debate. It is unfair to mention him with those other guys, but it would be a much different debate if Oakland has the line that those guys run behind. I don't think he is superstar material, but I think he has the potential to be a very solid rb for years behind a decent O-line.

Mo

[Ksyrup]

I think it's just a function of football being a team game where baseball is largely individual. David Ortiz doesn't need any help to hit a homer...it's all him.

Backs, receivers and such need all kinds of things to go right to put up numbers which are a function of his teammates to some degree.

Football Outsiders is the closest to trying to bring a statistically anaylsis of football to life.
Well, I think people will still argue that David Ortiz only gets the pitches to hit that he does because of who is in the lineup around him. But even putting the HR stat aside, isn't scoring TDs relatively equivalent to RBIs? That is, the better the team around you, the more opportunities you've got to be successful? Manny Ramirez isn't typically going to drive in 140 runs with a last place team, and neither is Priest Holmes scoring 27 TDs for a 4-12 team. But the baseball players stats are always second-guessed, while Shaun Alexander, assuming he breaks the record, is going to be celebrated universally.

There's no "counter-culture" movement among football people, is there? I guess that's my question.

[rkmsuf]

Well, I think people will still argue that David Ortiz only gets the pitches to hit that he does because of who is in the lineup around him. But even putting the HR stat aside, isn't scoring TDs relatively equivalent to RBIs? That is, the better the team around you, the more opportunities you've got to be successful? Manny Ramirez isn't typically going to drive in 140 runs with a last place team, and neither is Priest Holmes scoring 27 TDs for a 4-12 team. But the baseball players stats are always second-guessed, while Shaun Alexander, assuming he breaks the record, is going to be celebrated universally.

There's no "counter-culture" movement among football people, is there? I guess that's my question.


not really since stats in football more often than not correspond to winning teams. Seattle is good because they have Alexander, not the reverse generally when you talk about the upper end of the numbers.


What stats in baseball are second guessed? To me they seem the most cut and dried. Never really though about RBIs.

[kcchief19]

On a related note, I've been wondering abut this...you know how in baseball, we have sabermetrics, and a bunch of people always talk about how useless certain stats, like BA or RBIs, are? Does something like that exist in football? Are there people running around talking about how TDs scored don't really matter and Shaun Alexander isn't as great a back as everyone thinks he is because his 22 TDs are overrated and a product of the team he's on? Obviously the statheads haven't hit football yet -- baseball is much more attractive to that demographic, I think.

But I think a similar move has taken place in football over the years. Yardage for backs isn't nearly as important as yards per carry, TDs and yards after contact in determining great backs these days.

I'm not sure about the part about Alexander not being as great a back as everyone thinks because of his touchdowns. What about Alexander's package doesn't make him one of the best backs in the NFL? By almost any statistical measure you use, Alexander is one of the five best backs in the league. Maybe more so in the sense that he is the Seattle offense more than most other backs are part of their team's offensive packages.

[rkmsuf]

Here's some NFL geekiness.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

[albionmoonlight]

www.footballoutsiders.com (http://www.footballoutsiders.com) trys to take a different statistical approach to football.

[albionmoonlight]

dola--

Thunder . . . stolen

[rkmsuf]

by mere seconds! how exciting.

[Ksyrup]

No one really put him in that category until this year, did they? And why? Because all of a sudden he's scoring twice a game. There were rumors last offseason and this past offseason about Seattle trading him, regardless of his willingness to sign a long-term deal. You generally don't do that with a top 5 back (Marshall Faulk notwithstanding).

[Ksyrup]

dola--

Thunder . . . stolen

Just claim time stamp bug! No one actually looks at the times.

[rkmsuf]

No one really put him in that category until this year, did they? And why? Because all of a sudden he's scoring twice a game. There were rumors last offseason and this past offseason about Seattle trading him, regardless of his willingness to sign a long-term deal. You generally don't do that with a top 5 back (Marshall Faulk notwithstanding).


It's not the TD count that drives percieved value. He's always scored a lot of them. He has been generally viewed as a weak team guy and soft. Last year and this year he has really picked it up so you combine that with the team being 10-2 and his stock for Seattle goes up.

Also the RB market is weak overall anyway.

[kcchief19]

That is, the better the team around you, the more opportunities you've got to be successful? Manny Ramirez isn't typically going to drive in 140 runs with a last place team, and neither is Priest Holmes scoring 27 TDs for a 4-12 team. But the baseball players stats are always second-guessed, while Shaun Alexander, assuming he breaks the record, is going to be celebrated universally. Fair enough, but is the team winning because of the touchdowns or is he scoring touchdowns because the team is winning? I do see your point. You could certainly apply the same question for Manny Ramirez.

As for the celebratory nature of sabremetrics and touchdowns, I don't think football is any different than baseball. I guarantee you 90 out of 100 baseball fans couldn't tell you what the record for OBP is in a single season, but they sure know .406 and Ted Williams. And that's even with all of hub-bub with Bonds and his OBP. If somebody manages to hit .400 in a season though, the media crush will rival the home run chase.

[Ksyrup]

"Running backs are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement."

Now THAT's what I'm talking 'bout! I feel like I'm reading a Rob Neyer column one sentence in.

[TroyF]

For those of you who believe the statheads haven't hit football yet, you need to go to a website called football outsiders. (The url is the two words combined with a dot com after it)

They have a book titled "The Pro Football Prospectus" that I wrote in a thread about earlier this year. One of the better statistical analysis books I've ever read on football.

Among other things they predicted this year were that the Chiefs would be better defensively but would slip offensively, that Matt Hasselbech would rebound with a better year and that Kevin Jones would win the rushing title. (oops)

If you go to the "just the stats" tab, they rate players with a rating called DVOA. If anyone is interested, they have an incredible explanation of the stat on the site.

This year the #1 running back according to their system is Edgarin James. Tomlinson, Alexander, Rudi Johnson and Warrick Dunn round out the top 5.

Backs who you'd think would be higher, but aren't? Stephen Jackson at #29 stands out.

FWIW, their rule of thumb for predicting better things from one year to another involved third downs. If the teams third down success rate is much lower than it's rate on first and second downs, the odds are strong that the level of play will move closer to the norm on third downs the following year.

This was how they predicted the SD offensive explosion last year and the Seahawks success this year.

[TroyF]

dola--

Thunder . . . stolen


Ditto. I was typing my novel when both of those posts were typed. :)

[rkmsuf]

cool, had never heard of that site :)

[JasonC23]

Football Outsiders--great site.







(Yes, I've been studying JeeberD's posting habits, why do you ask?)

[yabanci]

Ummm..

Alexander - 1388 yards, 282 carries, 4.9 ypc, 22 TDs
James - 1347 yards, 304 carries, 4.4 ypc, 12 TDs
Johnson - 1108 yards, 221 carries, 5.0 ypc, 11 TDs
Tomlinson - 1172 yards, 261 carries, 4.5 ypc, 17 TDs

Jordan - 844 yards, 233 carries, 3.6 ypc, 9 TDs

Which one of these things is not like the others? Which one of these things just doesn't belong?

PS: Be happy I did not use career numbers.

Alexander - 10 rec, 52 yards
James - 30 rec, 242 yards
Johnson - 22 rec, 229 yards
Tomlinson - 42 rec, 339 yards

Jordan - 61 rec, 493 yards

Nobody is going to say that Jordan has the credentials of Tomlinson, Alexander, or James, but you'd be wise to look at the whole picture before asking silly rhetorical questions.

[Huckleberry]

The problem with trying to analyze football or basketball like you can do with baseball is that baseball is the only major sport in America that is played in series.

A play consists, for the most part, of a series of individual events. The pitcher throws the pitch, the batter responds, if he puts it in play then a fielder responds, then a fielder throws and the receiver of that throw responds. All in series. Baserunning being the exception.

Football and basketball, obviously, are sports where each play consists of numerous events happening in parallel.

From there it's easy to see that being able to apply mathematical models to an in series system is much easier than applying models to in parallel systems.

[wade moore]

Alexander - 10 rec, 52 yards
James - 30 rec, 242 yards
Johnson - 22 rec, 229 yards
Tomlinson - 42 rec, 339 yards

Jordan - 61 rec, 493 yards

Nobody is going to say that Jordan has the credentials of Tomlinson, Alexander, or James, but you'd be wise to look at the whole picture before asking silly rhetorical questions.
Good receiving numbers..

He still does not belong in the class of the other 4.

[wade moore]

bump for RA...