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stevew
12-18-2005, 03:53 PM
The rating is now sitting at 23.1. Somehow he managed to do awful enough this week to drop it from 24.7. Is he seriously this bad? Cause this has gotta be probably just about the worst performance by a starting QB in NFL History with over 100 attempts.

DeToxRox
12-18-2005, 03:54 PM
I'd say yes. Say what you want about his team, but he just isn't good.

Desnudo
12-18-2005, 03:54 PM
I wonder what a QBs rating would if they just threw a hail mary every time? Better?

Philliesfan980
12-18-2005, 03:58 PM
I'm not enthralled with him either, but I think you have to give him at least 2 years before anyone calls him a total bust. The 49ers will have an interesting situation this offseason, but they sure have to be happy that Houston won. Not sure what the tie-break formula for determing drafts picks is either.

Off Topic, but what is Houston doing winning that game. If this is ever a year to tank games, this is it. I guess its hard telling that to guys who don't know if they'll be with the team next year and are playing for jobs though.

DeToxRox
12-18-2005, 04:00 PM
Alex Smith will get David Carr benefit of the doubt but Carr isn't any good either. How long can he get to prove himself?

Neither are good.

Tekneek
12-18-2005, 04:01 PM
Intentionally throwing games could cause problems. Besides that, players want to win. Who wants to go out there and get beat up for a few hours while not even trying to win?

st.cronin
12-18-2005, 04:10 PM
I think Alex Smith (and David Carr for that matter) will be a good qb. He's no Eli Manning, but Eli had a similiar start to his career, with a much better team around him. Vinny Testaverde had several years of awfulness before he turned the corner. Even Peyton Manning didn't have a great rookie year.

Philliesfan980
12-18-2005, 04:12 PM
People seem to be forgetting that football is a team game. The 49ers are terrible. They have a below average running game, no line, and average at best WR's. Sure, they'd be better if they had Manning, or some other established all-pro QB, but by how much?

Craptacular
12-18-2005, 04:16 PM
Not sure what the tie-break formula for determing drafts picks is either.
Strength of schedule.

Going into today, SF had an easier schedule (.526) than Houston (.547), and it will remain that way. SF played Jax today, and Houston plays them next week. The current difference between St Louis and Arizona is only 1 game.

However, Houston and SF play each other in Week 17. The only way that game doesn't decide the first pick is if both teams win next week. The Jets look to be the only other team with a shot at it now.

DeToxRox
12-18-2005, 04:17 PM
People seem to be forgetting that football is a team game. The 49ers are terrible. They have a below average running game, no line, and average at best WR's. Sure, they'd be better if they had Manning, or some other established all-pro QB, but by how much?

Look at all the blame Harrington gets in Detroit. How come Carr is still a Golden Boy?

Team game or not, mental mistakes have nothing to do with the team.

clintl
12-18-2005, 04:18 PM
Not sure what the tie-break formula for determing drafts picks is either.



SF and Houston meet the final week of the season. That will probably be the tiebreaker (unless they tie).

I haven't watched much this year, for various reasons, but every time I have, Smith just has no time to do anything. The 49ers need a better OL, and they need a better running game, I think, before you can do a fair evaluation of Smith.

Vince
12-18-2005, 04:19 PM
Team game or not, mental mistakes have nothing to do with the team.
I beg to differ. Mental mistakes are largely one's own fault. However, if a QB who is exceptionally raw is only getting 3, 4 seconds to make a decision, then it's monumentally harder to make a correct decision.

Smith has the detriment of having one of the worst offensive lines in the league, quite possibly the worst receiving corps, and absolutely NO running game. Defensive coordinators must love gameplanning for the 49ers.

stevew
12-18-2005, 04:21 PM
I beg to differ. Mental mistakes are largely one's own fault. However, if a QB who is exceptionally raw is only getting 3, 4 seconds to make a decision, then it's monumentally harder to make a correct decision.

Smith has the detriment of having one of the worst offensive lines in the league, quite possibly the worst receiving corps, and absolutely NO running game. Defensive coordinators must love gameplanning for the 49ers.

You actually think people gameplan for the niners? If i'm the dcoordinator, i call everyone into the office on tuesday, tell them that we are running a max blitz every down, and to make sure to tackle. And then give them all the rest of the week off, while I go play golf or something.

Honolulu_Blue
12-18-2005, 04:23 PM
Look at all the blame Harrington gets in Detroit. How come Carr is still a Golden Boy?

Team game or not, mental mistakes have nothing to do with the team.
Is Carr still considered a Golden Boy?

I think the perception of Harrington is that he was surrounded by a lot of weapons - three first round picks on WR and Kevin Jones - and still failed. What people fail to realize, however, is that all those weapons really aren't as advertised, at least at this time. First, they are all very young. Kevin Jones was hurt often. Roy Williams was hurt often too, not to mention wildly inconsistent (makes great plays, but can't make the routine). Charles Rogers has played all of a handful of games and has been plagued with injuries and loves the mairjuana. Mike Williams is a rookie who hadn't played football in over a year. I haven't even addressed the issues with the offensive line.

Honolulu_Blue
12-18-2005, 04:25 PM
I beg to differ. Mental mistakes are largely one's own fault. However, if a QB who is exceptionally raw is only getting 3, 4 seconds to make a decision, then it's monumentally harder to make a correct decision.

Smith has the detriment of having one of the worst offensive lines in the league, quite possibly the worst receiving corps, and absolutely NO running game. Defensive coordinators must love gameplanning for the 49ers.
He also has very small hands.

st.cronin
12-18-2005, 04:27 PM
He also has very small hands.

As does Daunte Culpepper. It doesn't mean he can't play in the NFL.

Honolulu_Blue
12-18-2005, 04:29 PM
As does Daunte Culpepper. It doesn't mean he can't play in the NFL.
Daunte's aren't that small. Alex Smith has the hands of an infant... apparently.

lytic
12-18-2005, 04:47 PM
Texans would hold the tie breaker if they tied the final game of the season (they said it on TV, I didn't look it up myself).

Logan
12-18-2005, 04:55 PM
Texans would hold the tie breaker if they tied the final game of the season (they said it on TV, I didn't look it up myself).

I don't see how that's possible (see Crap's post earlier).

GrantDawg
12-18-2005, 05:05 PM
Maybe that spread offense hr played in Utah made him look like a better QB than he actually is? I know it is as far from an NFL offense as the earth is from the sun.

Draft Dodger
12-18-2005, 05:09 PM
Daunte's aren't that small. Alex Smith has the hands of an infant... apparently.

and you know what THAT means...

AlexB
12-18-2005, 05:13 PM
and you know what THAT means...

There's some poor confused 6 year old wandering around SF with stumps at the end of his arms???

Karlifornia
12-18-2005, 05:36 PM
Daunte's aren't that small. Alex Smith has the hands of an infant... apparently.


Where did you get this information? I read in the paper that he has average to slightly above average hands.

Honolulu_Blue
12-18-2005, 05:42 PM
Where did you get this information? I read in the paper that he has average to slightly above average hands.
I have my sources.

miami_fan
12-18-2005, 07:20 PM
The rating is now sitting at 23.1. Somehow he managed to do awful enough this week to drop it from 24.7. Is he seriously this bad? Cause this has gotta be probably just about the worst performance by a starting QB in NFL History with over 100 attempts.

No way you can accurately judge him at this point. All any 49ers fan can hope for is that he has gotten some valuable experience and has maintained his confidence going into next year.

Pumpy Tudors
12-18-2005, 07:20 PM
I wonder what a QBs rating would if they just threw a hail mary every time? Better?
If none of the hail mary passes get intercepted, the QB rating would be quite a bit better than Alex Smith's.

Karlifornia
12-18-2005, 08:54 PM
Well, it has been a discouraging start, no 49er fan will disagree. Glimmers of hope have been few and far between, but the word here is patience. If, in Week 15 next year, we are seeing the same sort of play from Alex Smith-the same sub-30 QB rating-then I think people should feel more inclined to sound the alarm.

The offensive line is pathetic at best, but Frank Gore managed to have a pretty good day rushing the ball. Probably the best day for a Niners RB since Hearst and Barlow split time. I would have thought Smith would have a better day with a running game that actually productive, but this obviously didn't happen. I don't know if that is a strike against Barlow, Smith, or the offensive line. This was the first game of the season where the running game was atrocious, and I expected the offense to breathe a little bit more. It didn't happen.

Point is, a #1 pick is always a large investment, and, as much egg as the front office has on it's face, it can't pull the plug now. That would be ridiculously too early. Bill Walsh said that Jeff Garcia had the potential to be a pro-bowl quarterback right after he replaced Steve Young, and look what happened: Garcia made a few pro-bowls. If I were York and the GM (I can't even place the name of the 49ers GM right now..oy), I would just listen to whatever Bill Walsh has to say.

Cringer
12-18-2005, 09:16 PM
I am tired of hearing guys say a QB is done for in the league when it is still his rookie year. Give them time, and their teams time to build something up around them some. Yes Harrington and Carr and Boller at this point should be getting ripped some, they have been around a while. I still do not think they are a complete wash. All three of those teams have other offensive problems that don't help those QBs much.

And every first rounder is not going to be Elway or Marino, those guys were all-time greats.

Desnudo
12-18-2005, 09:33 PM
Come on though. A 24 rating is horrific, regardless of how bad the team is. Even on a good team, that's a 40 or 50 at best. I remember watching the Seahawks-49ers game a few weeks ago where the ball kept slipping out of his hand and the announcers tried to make the excuse that it's because they use new balls all time and they're slippery. When you have announcers feeling sorry for you and making excuses, you know it's time to go back to the drawing board.

Cringer
12-18-2005, 09:43 PM
Did he not have a problem holding onto the ball this much in college? If he has THAT much trouble because of hand size I would think this would have been noticed a long time ago, and been a very large problem in college. So much so that he would never have been a #1 overall pick.

clintl
12-18-2005, 10:33 PM
Come on though. A 24 rating is horrific, regardless of how bad the team is. Even on a good team, that's a 40 or 50 at best.

There are QBs in the Hall of Fame that weren't much better than that as rookies.

st.cronin
12-18-2005, 10:35 PM
Did he not have a problem holding onto the ball this much in college? If he has THAT much trouble because of hand size I would think this would have been noticed a long time ago, and been a very large problem in college. So much so that he would never have been a #1 overall pick.

He was great in college, and was known as a ball-control type qb.

TroyF
12-18-2005, 11:15 PM
SF is 30 in the NFL in rushing. They are 32nd in passing. They have the fewest first downs in footall. (over 50 behind the next worst team)

And Alex Smith has thrown something like 120 passes this year, while other SF QB's have combined for 225 other attempts.

I think Alex and his issues are being a bit overblown here.

WrongWay
12-18-2005, 11:33 PM
Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers?

At least Smith is getting some playing time; I still have no idea why Green Bay is not playing Rodgers yet.

With 2 meaningless games to go in the season do you think Rodgers will get any playing time in Green Bay this year?

Daimyo
12-18-2005, 11:46 PM
Unless the guy has Leaf-like attitude problems you should never judge them in the first season. Manning had a 70 QBR in his rookie year and I think a lot of people hold him as the standard, but he had a stud RB, stud WR, and stud LT already on the team. Roethlesburger had the best group of receivers in the league (and i say that as a Colt's fan) and a great running game. Guys like Carr and Smith are basically joining empty cupboard teams.

kingfc22
12-18-2005, 11:48 PM
As a Niner fan it is truly painful to watch this team, but Alex Smith has ZERO help around him. He drops back about 1.5 steps and he gets hit. He rolls out and he gets hit because Kwawe Harris couldn't block a statue. He hands off to Barlow who gains 1 ypc. He throws the ball to Brandon Lloyd who will only catch it if he has to make a Top 10 ESPN highlight catch. Our best weapon, TE Eric Johnson has missed the whole season. And when you are losing in every game it is hard to throw since the other team knows you can't run even if you wanted to.

clintl
12-19-2005, 12:17 AM
Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers?

At least Smith is getting some playing time; I still have no idea why Green Bay is not playing Rodgers yet.

With 2 meaningless games to go in the season do you think Rodgers will get any playing time in Green Bay this year?

Not unless Brett Favre wants to rest.

st.cronin
12-19-2005, 12:31 AM
Yeah, Favre isn't going to be benched unless he gets really, really hurt. And I was a lot more impressed with Smith's performance in college as opposed to Rodgers, but what the hell do I know.

Cringer
12-19-2005, 12:59 AM
Hey alright, why isn't Favre being benched so Rodgers can play? Another one of my favorites that keeps coming up on the radio and everywhere else.

First off, why are so many people concerned with how Green Bay chooses to develop their QB? I mean here we are with Phillips Rivers ending his second season on the bench yet no one cares. In fact the concern is so little that he will probably be traded for a pretty good pick in the offseason if the Chargers want to, and I am sure several teams will want him.

Not too mention that throwing a rookie in there with this offensive line and running game would make the offense look like the 49ers. The career of Aaron Rodgers is not going to be made or broken on if he gets to play in a couple games this year. He will succeed or fail in the end depending on his abillity and intelligence.

cthomer5000
12-19-2005, 01:07 AM
I mean here we are with Phillips Rivers ending his second season on the bench yet no one cares. In fact the concern is so little that he will probably be traded for a pretty good pick in the offseason if the Chargers want to, and I am sure several teams will want him.
There are still huge, huge, huge financial implications here. The earliest they can realistically trade Rivers is after June 1st, and they'll still have flushed tons and tons of money down the toilet. My gut feeling is that he rides the pine yet again while Brees is franchised again.

Cringer
12-19-2005, 01:12 AM
There are still huge, huge, huge financial implications here. The earliest they can realistically trade Rivers is after June 1st, and they'll still have flushed tons and tons of money down the toilet. My gut feeling is that he rides the pine yet again while Brees is franchised again.

That is very true too.

Kind of a shame that San Diego won today. If they had missed the playoffs then they could have even considered trading Brees. Getting into the playoffs though would make it pretty hard to justify.

cthomer5000
12-19-2005, 01:14 AM
Clarification on Philip Rivers...

The Chargers gave him a 14.25 million dollar bonus on a 6 year deal. That leaves 9.5 million of cap charge hanging out there.

If they traded him before June 1st, they would take a 9.5 million cap hit in 2006.
If they traded him after June 1st, they would take a 4.75 million cap hit in 2006, and a 4.75 cap hit in 2007.


Realistically, what could they even get for him at this point? I see him riding the pine again in 2006.


edit: Also, his base salaries are so low that it's not really too big an issue. The bonus money is already spent, so I say keep him around as the backup. And Brees has played too well for you to let him walk or trade him. I think you keep him at #1, keep Rivers at #2, and let Rivers pout. It's what's best for your team.

Desnudo
12-19-2005, 01:18 AM
There are QBs in the Hall of Fame that weren't much better than that as rookies.

Well if he makes it he'll set the record for worst single season QB rating by any QB in the HF. Terry Bradshaw came close, but name another one.

Cringer
12-19-2005, 01:20 AM
Realistically, what could they even get for him at this point? I see him riding the pine again in 2006.


The couple of former GMs they have on NFL network seem to think they could easily still get a 1st round pick for him. They would know better then me, but I don't see why they couldn't get that for him, especially with few first round QBs this year in the draft.

Pumpy Tudors
12-19-2005, 01:44 AM
That is very true too.

Kind of a shame that San Diego won today. If they had missed the playoffs then they could have even considered trading Brees. Getting into the playoffs though would make it pretty hard to justify.
No comment on any of the quarterbacks (Smith, Rodgers, or Rivers), but the Chargers are not very likely to make the playoffs. Most likely, they'll need to win against Kansas City and Denver, and then they'd need some serious help.

stevew
12-19-2005, 06:17 AM
No comment on any of the quarterbacks (Smith, Rodgers, or Rivers), but the Chargers are not very likely to make the playoffs. Most likely, they'll need to win against Kansas City and Denver, and then they'd need some serious help.

All they have to do is win 2 games and hope pittsburgh or Jacksonville lose at least one. Those odds arent that long for the chargers IMO.

JeeberD
12-19-2005, 06:54 AM
How come Carr is still a Golden Boy?


Go register over at the Clutchfans.net board and check out the Texans forum. Then come back here and try to tell me that Carr is a Golden Boy...

Most Texans fans have been fed up with Carr for at least a couple of years now.

WrongWay
12-19-2005, 06:59 AM
There is a Huge Difference between Drew Brees and Brett Farve. You could say Brees is the future for a loaded Chargers team, while Brett is probably Arizona bound to get away from the mess that is turning out to be the Packers organization. But, I quess the Farve decision will come down to what the New Head Coaches plans are for the team.


I can think of at least 6 teams that would be better of trading their 1st round pick for Rivers. And, at the top of that list is Matt Millen and the Detroit Lions. I think if Matt makes this trade ASAP he may be able to save his job by bringing in this "golden boy".

CAM
12-19-2005, 07:00 AM
Shannon Sharpe had a funny comment yesterday in cbs halftime show about the hail mary Smith attempted. he said "I can throw deeper than that" or something.

WrongWay
12-19-2005, 07:34 AM
I can think of at least 6 teams that would be better of trading their 1st round pick for Rivers. And, at the top of that list is Matt Millen and the Detroit Lions. I think if Matt makes this trade ASAP he may be able to save his job by bringing in this "golden boy".
Here I will go one step further and make a stupid prediction so everyone can make fun of me.

The Detroit Lions next head Coach will be San Diego's OC Cam Cameron. And, Detroits next starting QB will be Phillip Rivers.

So it is written, So it is said. :D

Samdari
12-19-2005, 07:37 AM
I am tired of hearing guys say a QB is done for in the league when it is still his rookie year. Give them time, and their teams time to build something up around them some. Yes Harrington and Carr and Boller at this point should be getting ripped some, they have been around a while. I still do not think they are a complete wash. All three of those teams have other offensive problems that don't help those QBs much.

And every first rounder is not going to be Elway or Marino, those guys were all-time greats.

I thought Smith as the #1 pick was one of the worst picks ever. I never saw anything from him (except moxie, and moxie alone is not enough - see Detmer, Ty) that indicated he should be a first day pick. I think he has physical skills on the order of Ken Dorsey, and thus should have been a 7th rounder.

So, if we thought he was "done for the league" before his rookie year, is it ok to still think he is, or are we supposed to wait now?

Butter
12-19-2005, 07:59 AM
So, if we thought he was "done for the league" before his rookie year, is it ok to still think he is, or are we supposed to wait now?

No, I still think it.

Prototypical system QB. Very Klingler and Ware-esque. I feel comfortable saying he will be a complete and total bust.

I mean, c'mon! I know the Niners are bad, but name another QB anywhere ever who has looked this bad on a regular basis and gets to keep his job? 0 TD's and 10 INT's in 5 starts?

Sorry, Niner fans.

21C
12-19-2005, 08:01 AM
Well if he makes it he'll set the record for worst single season QB rating by any QB in the HF. Terry Bradshaw came close, but name another one. Rookie Seasons
Bradshaw



| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1970 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1970.htm) pit (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit1970.htm) | 13 | 83 218 38.1 1410 6.5 6 24 | 32 233 1 |

</pre> Elway



| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1983 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1983.htm) den (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/den1983.htm) | 11 | 123 259 47.5 1663 6.4 7 14 | 28 146 1 |

</pre> Fouts



| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1973 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1973.htm) sdg (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sdg1973.htm) | 10 | 87 194 44.8 1126 5.8 6 13 | 7 32 0 |

</pre> Young



| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1985 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1985.htm) tam (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam1985.htm) | 5 | 72 138 52.2 935 6.8 3 8 | 40 233 1 |

</pre> Not a HOFer . . .

Aikman



| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1989 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1989.htm) dal (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal1989.htm) | 11 | 155 293 52.9 1749 6.0 9 18 | 38 302 0 |

</pre>


And no - I don't think that Alex Smith will make it to the Hall.

21C
12-19-2005, 08:04 AM
Sorry about the crappy formatting but I got them from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/qbindex.htm

TroyF
12-19-2005, 08:08 AM
I thought Smith as the #1 pick was one of the worst picks ever. I never saw anything from him (except moxie, and moxie alone is not enough - see Detmer, Ty) that indicated he should be a first day pick. I think he has physical skills on the order of Ken Dorsey, and thus should have been a 7th rounder.

So, if we thought he was "done for the league" before his rookie year, is it ok to still think he is, or are we supposed to wait now?


I disagree there, I think he's going to be a pretty good NFL QB. You say Dorsey, I think he's a QB like Drew Brees with better running skills. You don't have to wait to voice the opinion, you do have to wait before you can say "I won, I had the correct opinion"

As for Rivers, if the Chargers do sit him for a third consecutive year, I'll have to simply bow down and agree 100% with Eli. I'll hate to do it, but I think it'll have to be done. Eli's reasons for not going there centered on the fact it wasn't a good organization to develop in.

Well, they judged Brees to quickly and drafted his replacement a year early. Then they've let the replacement rot on the bench, despite having plenty of cap room to take a hit and offers on the table to make the move.

If they let Rivers sit and rot a third year, I'm gonna have to agree with Eli.

flere-imsaho
12-19-2005, 09:00 AM
Carr vs. Harrington

This season & last, Carr's over 60% completion rate. Harrington has never been over a 60% completion rate.

Last season (and probably this one), Carr will throw more TDs than INTs. Harrington threw more TDs than INTs last year, but probably will not this year.

I don't think Carr's a world-beating QB, but I do think he's better than Harrington. Carr, while getting sacked about 3 billion times a season, has shown streaks of good, efficient play and good decisions. Harrington is just routinely inaccurate, making poor decisions.

Favre

I'm amused that a few of you think it's within the realm of possibility that Favre will get benched for Rodgers. Unless Favre wants to sit (unlikely in the extreme), benching Favre would probably put Sherman on the fast bus to Severe Fan Disgruntlement. I mean, the guy's practically a god in Wisconsin.

Besides, what I've heard out of Green Bay is that Rodgers is appalling. They should have gotten J.P. Losman instead (Favre clone, needs a few years to learn).

flere-imsaho
12-19-2005, 09:03 AM
As for Rivers, if the Chargers do sit him for a third consecutive year, I'll have to simply bow down and agree 100% with Eli. I'll hate to do it, but I think it'll have to be done. Eli's reasons for not going there centered on the fact it wasn't a good organization to develop in.

Yes, but not for that reason. At the time, I don't think anyone could have guessed that Brees would blossom as suddenly as he did to keep a 1st rounder on the bench (especially a Manning).

I'm pretty sure that the Mannings' rationale centered around the fact that for years before, San Diego has no O-Line to speak of, and no decent receivers besides LT. I think they were afraid that Eli would get bludgeoned to death. No one could have predicted that Gates would have come out of nowhere and McCardell would have so much left in the tank.

TroyF
12-19-2005, 09:12 AM
Yes, but not for that reason. At the time, I don't think anyone could have guessed that Brees would blossom as suddenly as he did to keep a 1st rounder on the bench (especially a Manning).

I'm pretty sure that the Mannings' rationale centered around the fact that for years before, San Diego has no O-Line to speak of, and no decent receivers besides LT. I think they were afraid that Eli would get bludgeoned to death. No one could have predicted that Gates would have come out of nowhere and McCardell would have so much left in the tank.


I agree with this flere, and I'm OK with the Chargers action to this point. Brees played well, you play him. You have to play him another year to make sure it isn't a fluke. OK, he's not a fluke.

And this is where I talk about year #3. The Chargers have the cap space to take the one year hit. They will certainly have offers to trade Rivers. If they keep him on the bench rotting for a third year, I have an issue with what they are doing. As an agent or a father, I would have a hard time telling my son to willingly go to an organization that's going to sit their high draft pick three years in a row, without giving him any playing time and are not willing to help move him to an organization that will give him a chance.

The Chargers need to do what is right for Rivers this offseason, and that's to trade him to another organization if they are going with Brees for the future.

FWIW, as a Bronco fan, I hope they keep Marty and keep Rivers. They don't get the extra player or two they need with Rivers still there and Marty, well, as a Denver fan, I LOVE Marty. :)

WrongWay
12-19-2005, 10:04 AM
Favre

I'm amused that a few of you think it's within the realm of possibility that Favre will get benched for Rodgers. Unless Favre wants to sit (unlikely in the extreme), benching Favre would probably put Sherman on the fast bus to Severe Fan Disgruntlement. I mean, the guy's practically a god in Wisconsin.

Besides, what I've heard out of Green Bay is that Rodgers is appalling. They should have gotten J.P. Losman instead (Favre clone, needs a few years to learn).
If Favre stinks up the place do you still same the same thing?

Also, have there been any Boo bird sightings in Green Bay this year?

SFL Cat
12-19-2005, 10:35 AM
Look at Troy Aikman's first season as a starter in Dallas....nuff said.

Cringer
12-19-2005, 10:42 AM
There is a Huge Difference between Drew Brees and Brett Farve. You could say Brees is the future for a loaded Chargers team, while Brett is probably Arizona bound to get away from the mess that is turning out to be the Packers organization. But, I quess the Farve decision will come down to what the New Head Coaches plans are for the team.


New Head Coaches? What makes you just assume the Packers will have a new head coach next year? Sherman was signed to a new two year extension before the season. Small enough for the Packers to get out of, but still I am not sure it will happen at this point. There is talk of Mariucci being brought in, but that is just the Packer connection bringing that up I think. Plus, if you haven't heard, Favre has said he will not come back for sure if there is a coaching change, which I don't blame him for really.

Why I am not so sure about a coaching change is this. The Packer/Sherman problems lie mostly in what he did as a GM. The guy had never been a head coach on any level, and after one season as te Packer head coach he was handed the GM role too. It was a big mistake. I think Sherman's problems this year were because of the piss poor roster he had built over the years. I would like to see what happens when he is just a coach, which I do not think he is a bad one even though I don't like the offensive playcalling sometimes.

Also, speculation that I hear is that even though 6-7 head coaches could be fired, the thought around the league seems to be that there is a lack of top level candidates, adn some owners may not pull the trigger like they would have in years past.

moriarty
12-19-2005, 11:47 AM
Besides, what I've heard out of Green Bay is that Rodgers is appalling. They should have gotten J.P. Losman instead (Favre clone, needs a few years to learn).

Where's this coming from? Rodgers looked weak in the preseason (but no worse than Alex Smith). Is this from someone who watches their practices or something. Just curious.

flere-imsaho
12-19-2005, 11:47 AM
Where's this coming from? Rodgers looked weak in the preseason (but no worse than Alex Smith). Is this from someone who watches their practices or something. Just curious.

Just reading some of the local press, plus talking to some friends who are Pack fans and follow them closely.

Cringer
12-19-2005, 11:50 AM
Just reading some of the local press, plus talking to some friends who are Pack fans and follow them closely.

I haven't heard anything really good about him, I can say that much. IMO I think the only thing that has him as the #2 QB is his draft position and the fact that #2 QB's in GB don't play anyways. Otherwise I think Null would still be the #2.

moriarty
12-19-2005, 11:55 AM
Interesting. Bad enough that they'd be tempted if a Brady Quinn or Vince Young (assuming they come out) fell to them in the draft?

Cringer
12-19-2005, 11:56 AM
Interesting. Bad enough that they'd be tempted if a Brady Quinn or Vince Young (assuming they come out) fell to them in the draft?

Couldn't say, but I don't think they would draft a QB in the first round this draft. The guy needs time, and deserves it.

moriarty
12-19-2005, 12:26 PM
Couldn't say, but I don't think they would draft a QB in the first round this draft. The guy needs time, and deserves it.

Besides, I think Favre would have a fit if they drafted QB's in the first round two years running.

Pumpy Tudors
12-19-2005, 03:04 PM
All they have to do is win 2 games and hope pittsburgh or Jacksonville lose at least one. Those odds arent that long for the chargers IMO.
I know that San Diego just beat Indianapolis, but to beat Indy, KC, and Denver in consecutive weeks would be a difficult task for any team in the NFL this year. Besides, Pittsburgh plays Cleveland and Detroit; Jacksonville plays Houston and Tennessee. Even if San Diego does perform the improbable and wins their two games, it's not likely that the Steelers and Jaguars will lose.

Cringer
12-19-2005, 03:19 PM
Besides, I think Favre would have a fit if they drafted QB's in the first round two years running.

I don't think Favre could give a shit really. If he was to stay with hopes of making a playoff run, a decent free agent guard or two would be more important to him. A rookie first rounder wouldn't make much impact even if he is good. Unless it was on defense, but even then the stats pretty much show that the defense is better this year and the problem is on offense for the Packers...all leads back to those guards leaving, injuries, and Favre over-compensating and throwing picks.

moriarty
12-19-2005, 03:23 PM
I don't think Favre could give a shit really. If he was to stay with hopes of making a playoff run, a decent free agent guard or two would be more important to him. A rookie first rounder wouldn't make much impact even if he is good. Unless it was on defense, but even then the stats pretty much show that the defense is better this year and the problem is on offense for the Packers...all leads back to those guards leaving, injuries, and Favre over-compensating and throwing picks.

Well if he doesn't stay, I'm sure he couldn't give a crap. But I seem to recall him being upset this year b/c they wasted their first round pick on the future, and he felt like they should use it on someone that could help immediately since he didn't have many years left. Presumably a lineman. So if they made that move two years in a row, I could see him getting pissed and quitting right before minicamp. edit: I dont' really follow the Packers though, so I could be wrong.

Cringer
12-19-2005, 03:28 PM
Well if he doesn't stay, I'm sure he couldn't give a crap. But I seem to recall him being upset this year b/c they wasted their first round pick on the future, and he felt like they should use it on someone that could help immediately since he didn't have many years left. Presumably a lineman. So if they made that move two years in a row, I could see him getting pissed and quitting right before minicamp. edit: I dont' really follow the Packers though, so I could be wrong.

It's not like I know Favre's inner thoughts, so I wouldn't say no way it could happen I guess. I could see why it would bug him. I don't remember anything about him being upset about the Rodgers pick but I am not saying it wasn't so. I don't remember anything he said about that pick.

I lineman this year would have been nice, or a LB. I would say CB, but those picks haven't turned out so well for a while now.
:(

Darkiller
12-19-2005, 04:12 PM
I have a very hard time believing San Diego will keep Rivers on the bench for a 3rd straight year. This is the Salary Cap era and no teams can ever again have the luxury of sitting a Steve Young for 4 years behind Joe Montana before handing him the starting job for good.

Looking at Cthomer's cap chart, there is roughly a $5M differential between trading Rivers before or after June 1st.
The point is, San Diego has a good cap situation with plenty of space (from what I have read) and it would probably mean a lot more to trade Rivers before June 1st --and even better: before the Draft-- so to have greater compensation.
My guess is they would not receive nearly the same amount in return, if they were to trade Rivers after June 1st.
I think it could be an interesting decision to "absorb" the $5M differential but in exchange get more in return from another team by trading Philippe Rivers early in the off-season, basically as early as Brees is signed to a multi-year deal in Feb or March 2006.

Darkiller
12-19-2005, 04:16 PM
dola:

Bottom line is: missing your rookie training camp because of a contract holdout is the worst thing to do....I'm actually glad that it backfired on Rivers.
On that side, Alex Smith promised on the day he was drafted that he would not miss a single day of camp...and he did just that, getting a deal done in time (and that was harder being a #1 overall selection) and reporting a day earlier. That's the kind of seriousness about the job that Troy Aikman had when he went in as a rookie #1 overall pick, and it served him well from what I was told ;-)

To me, this is a symbol of the kind of mental and psyche that A.Smith has about the game of football and the quarterbacking craft. And it has me hopeful about a bright future.
This mental toughness is something Leaf did not have, and something Aikman had. So far, and although his stats are disgusting, Smith is handling the situation as a whole very, very well. A lot of maturity from a 21-year old rookie #1 pick with so much pressure on his shoulder.

clintl
12-19-2005, 09:00 PM
Well if he makes it he'll set the record for worst single season QB rating by any QB in the HF. Terry Bradshaw came close, but name another one.

I was referring mostly to Bradshaw, but also to the assertion someone made that his rating might be 40 or 50 on a good team. I remember from the graphic shown during the game that Elway was barely above 50 as a rookie. I think someone else's on that graphic (Bob Griese maybe?) was under 50.

There's no doubt that Smith has been horrible so far, but I was just making the point that he's not the first rookie QB to look horrible, and wind up with a pretty good career.

clintl
12-19-2005, 09:05 PM
I think he has physical skills on the order of Ken Dorsey, and thus should have been a 7th rounder.


Having watched them both, Smith's raw physical skills are much better than Dorsey's. He throws much better looking passes. Dorsey's passes take forever to get to his targets.

kingfc22
12-19-2005, 09:05 PM
Jacksonville plays Houston and Tennessee. Even if San Diego does perform the improbable and wins their two games, it's not likely that the Steelers and Jaguars will lose.
I don't know. Jacksonville barely beat the Niners at home. I could see them losing one of these two games.

DeToxRox
12-19-2005, 09:07 PM
dola:

Bottom line is: missing your rookie training camp because of a contract holdout is the worst thing to do....I'm actually glad that it backfired on Rivers.
On that side, Alex Smith promised on the day he was drafted that he would not miss a single day of camp...and he did just that, getting a deal done in time (and that was harder being a #1 overall selection) and reporting a day earlier. That's the kind of seriousness about the job that Troy Aikman had when he went in as a rookie #1 overall pick, and it served him well from what I was told ;-)

To me, this is a symbol of the kind of mental and psyche that A.Smith has about the game of football and the quarterbacking craft. And it has me hopeful about a bright future.
This mental toughness is something Leaf did not have, and something Aikman had. So far, and although his stats are disgusting, Smith is handling the situation as a whole very, very well. A lot of maturity from a 21-year old rookie #1 pick with so much pressure on his shoulder.

Sadly, I feel he is quite the product of the system. His running ability worked in the Spread that Meyer ran, but he isn't a fast NFL QB, and he won't have that kind of time to get out of the pocket in the NFL. His throws always kind of float, too. He doesn't have any zip and I think it's going to lead to a career filled of INT's.

DeToxRox
12-19-2005, 09:08 PM
I don't know. Jacksonville barely beat the Niners at home. I could see them losing one of these two games.

And the fact Tennessee played hard vs Seattle, I wouldn't be shocked either if they lost to the Titans.

biological warrior
12-19-2005, 09:11 PM
He just doesnt have that ''feel'' that he will be a serviceable starting qb. Just from observations when he played against UNLV and other MWC teams.

clintl
12-20-2005, 08:56 PM
Well, the consolation for we 49ers fans is that if does turn out to be bust, we'll get another shot or two to pick the right guy. I just hope it doesn't take as long as it took the Bengals.

Wolfpack
12-21-2005, 10:37 PM
dola:

Bottom line is: missing your rookie training camp because of a contract holdout is the worst thing to do....I'm actually glad that it backfired on Rivers.


I hate to have to keep dragging it up, but did you ever even see the crap offers the Chargers were making to Rivers? He had incentive targets that no quarterback in the history of the game could ever hope to meet, things like reaching five Super Bowls during the contract period. He held out because he had to, not because he wanted to. True, they were angling for #1 money because he was traded to the #1 drafting team, but there was a lot more than simply draft slot money causing issues between him and the Chargers.

And for the love of god, don't send him to Detroit! I'd rather him suffer on the bench in San Diego than get killed and blamed for it in Detroit.

biological warrior
12-21-2005, 10:46 PM
Well, the consolation for we 49ers fans is that if does turn out to be bust, we'll get another shot or two to pick the right guy. I just hope it doesn't take as long as it took the Bengals. SF could always wait for Brady Quinn and, if Quinn busts Jimmie Clausen.http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/smilies/frown.gif

clintl
12-22-2005, 11:19 AM
In more bad news for the 49ers, I see in the paper today that Frank Gore will need shoulder surgery after the season.

Bad-example
01-22-2007, 08:40 PM
The 49ers took a lot of heat for taking Alex Smith with the number one pick in the draft. He certainly showed a lot more in his sophomore season than he did as a rookie. He had more to work with, no doubt. I still think he will turn out to be good. Do the people that were sure he was a bust still feel the same way?

bhlloy
01-22-2007, 09:08 PM
No, I think Smith showed enough to at least get out of the bust category. He's possibly still not going to be great, but he's at least good enough to be a starter in the league for a while.

Aaron Rodgers is still going to be a bust IMO. I still haven't heard anything good about him from anyone in the know, and he looked bad in preseason again. Add that to the Tedford factor and the fact that Favre is never going to go quietly or allow him to get any real experience and I think the kid is doomed.

Emiliano
01-23-2007, 03:10 AM
I liked him a lot this year. I don't think he's the greatest talent ever, but he could be a very good QB for the 49ers. It also depends on what teammates you have, and the 2005 Niners team was one of the worst I've ever seen, at least in recent years (especially the O-line). Overall, I think he showed nice improvements.

Butter
01-23-2007, 07:11 AM
I was waiting all year for somebody to drag this thread back out and point and laugh at the nay-sayers. Smith had a good year, considering his first year was god-awful. Year 3 will be a real test. The Niners will be expected to get over .500 next year, and in that division, it shouldn't be too hard, if Smith improves.

DeToxRox
11-13-2007, 09:07 PM
49.7 %, 800 yards, 2 TD/4 INT

DeToxRox
11-13-2007, 09:09 PM
But seriously, he's back in the bust category.

clintl
11-13-2007, 09:15 PM
It's looking that way, although it's hard to tell how much of it is Smith and how much of it is incompetent coaching on the part of Nolan and his offensive staff. I'm not believing that Nolan knows what he's doing any more.

JPhillips
11-13-2007, 09:18 PM
49.7 %, 800 yards, 2 TD/4 INT

Obviously four INTs is a problem, but he 800 yards in one game is pretty damn impressive.

Philliesfan980
11-13-2007, 09:23 PM
There's a nice article on ESPN about how the coaches really aren't playing to his strengths, and about the general lack of innovation in the NFL today.

Crapshoot
11-13-2007, 09:26 PM
The offensive line is genuinely terrible, and the OC looks like an idiot (Norv Turner, with all his faults, was very very good at that). Lord knows I think Smith was a shitty pick, but I think he can still turn out to be a league average QB (damning with faint praise) in the right environment.

When I watch the NFL (and you see this in baseball as well) - the more I realize - outside of the stars, its simply not worth paying for mediocrity. Pay the big money to the big stars (the LT's, the Peyton's, the Tom Brady's), and shuffle around the deck of mediocrity. The OL is the one place where paying for continuity may make sense. In baseball, this concept is apparent - pay the big bucks for A-Rod and co - stop giving Luis Gonzales $7M million when a AAAA player can give you 90% of the production for $300K. The concept of replacement level seems to be gaining acceptance slowly, but people don't appreciate that the talent distribution is a pyramid - not a rectangle.

DeToxRox
11-13-2007, 09:27 PM
There's a nice article on ESPN about how the coaches really aren't playing to his strengths.

Yeah, they don't run nearly enough.

clintl
11-13-2007, 09:29 PM
There's a nice article on ESPN about how the coaches really aren't playing to his strengths, and about the general lack of innovation in the NFL today.

Yeah, I read that earlier today.

Sun Tzu
11-13-2007, 10:32 PM
So, for the past 3 years I've been a big Nolan and Smith supporter. I see a lot of people coming down on these two (or at least questioning them, and rightfuly so) in recent weeks. However if you've watched every snap of every 49er game this year, like I have had the unfortunate displeasure of doing, you'll notice that neither of these people are to blame. Offensive Coordinator Jeff Hostler...should have never been given the job in the first place. His playcalling has been record setting awful. How they came up with "he was being tutored under Norv Turner for the one year Turner was here" as being qualified for the job is just beyond me. There have been grumblings from 49ers who say that both the O-line coach and Hostler aren't trusted by the players now, and quite frankly I don't blame them. Jonas Jennings was the only player who mentioned something out in the open, and as apposed to hearing him out, the team decided to put him on the IR after a sudden <i>high ankle sprain</i> put him out of commission...for the entire year...seriously guys? The defense has been respectable considering they're spending a minimum of 40 minutes on the field every game. Alex Smith has had what is I'm sure over 15% of his passes dropped (which would bring his completion percentage up to 65%) which is by far the highest in the league. The receiving core is absolutely laughable. Saying their best receiver on the team is Darrell Jackson causes a "shake my head in disgust" reflex. The team has the talent to contend, however the people pulling the strings are flushing it all down the crapper.

Vinatieri for Prez
11-14-2007, 01:23 AM
As a Pats fan, I fully support Alex Smith as the starting QB for the 49ers. :)

kingfc22
11-14-2007, 02:07 AM
As a Pats fan, I fully support Alex Smith as the starting QB for the 49ers. :)

Yep. That top 5 pick you will be getting would be mighty nice to have at this point. :(

thesloppy
11-14-2007, 02:34 AM
Alex Smith has had what is I'm sure over 15% of his passes dropped (which would bring his completion percentage up to 65%) which is by far the highest in the league.

For whatever it's worth, snap has the '9ers ranked 30th in terms of dropped passes. (http://snap.stats.com/stats/nflinfo/tmleaders.asp?year=Q&type=NFL+Receiving&rank=232&Submit=Go)

BishopMVP
11-14-2007, 03:15 AM
For whatever it's worth, snap has the '9ers ranked 30th in terms of dropped passes. (http://snap.stats.com/stats/nflinfo/tmleaders.asp?year=Q&type=NFL+Receiving&rank=232&Submit=Go)I think those are 2006 stats.

Sun Tzu
11-14-2007, 09:04 AM
For whatever it's worth, snap has the '9ers ranked 30th in terms of dropped passes. (http://snap.stats.com/stats/nflinfo/tmleaders.asp?year=Q&type=NFL+Receiving&rank=232&Submit=Go)

Those are definetely '06 stats. It's been well documented that the 49ers receivers have dropped a good amount more passes than any other team in '07. It doesn't help that Darrell Jackson has dropped somewhere along the lines of 22 passes this year in only 9 games.

Bad-example
07-28-2008, 02:12 PM
Another season, another offensive coordinator for Alex Smith and the 49ers. I think the talent level has risen the last few years, most dramatically on defense, but with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel? He was doing ok last season before getting his shoulder crunched, but they rushed him back and it was a disaster.

I still think it is too soon to call Smith a bust.

QuikSand
07-28-2008, 02:41 PM
Another season, another offensive coordinator for Alex Smith and the 49ers... but with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel? He was doing ok last season before getting his shoulder crunched, but they rushed him back and it was a disaster.

This sort of argument always sounds pretty convincing... jury's still out, dealt a bad hand, weak line, no weapons, new system, etc. But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?

I don't have strong feelings about Smith, really, this just sounds awfully familiar. Pretty much every early QB pick who disappoints gets a round or two of this, it seems, before being declared a true bust.

MikeVic
07-28-2008, 02:43 PM
He'll go the path of David Carr.

Bad-example
07-28-2008, 02:45 PM
Steve Young and Vinny Testaverde needed to change teams to find some success. Top of the draft QBs that were declared busts by the team that drafted them.

Karlifornia
07-28-2008, 03:07 PM
I'm calling an MVP season for Smith...Well, okay. Maybe not.

Maple Leafs
07-28-2008, 03:14 PM
But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?
Eli Manning is the only active guy that really comes to mind, and you could argue he never really has the "potential" bust label the way Smith does.

Drew Brees may also fit the criteria if you're willing to stretch it a bit.

st.cronin
07-28-2008, 03:28 PM
I still think Alex could be good, but really he was only technically a #1 pick. He was not considered the same level of talent as Carr or Manning, but had the good fortune to be in a very weak draft class.

QuikSand
07-28-2008, 03:29 PM
he was only technically a #1 pick.

Tell me how Kwame Brown ass taste.

Pumpy Tudors
07-28-2008, 03:32 PM
Maybe this was just my personal feeling about it (I dunno if the "experts" would've agreed with me), but I had thought that Steve McNair was going to be a huge bust after his first couple of years as a starter. I don't know if anything particularly changed with the team after that, but McNair seemed to just "get it" and led the Titans to the Super Bowl. His numbers in the Super Bowl year weren't great, but in the following years, he was a very, very good quarterback.

Like I said, maybe nobody else would've started to apply the "bust" label to him. I'm sure he got some leeway because he came from a small school and wasn't expected to do much right away. Still, I didn't think he'd turn into an MVP quarterback down the line.

As for Alex Smith, well, I think he'll be fine. He could help lead the 49ers to the playoffs in the next year or two. I don't think he'll ever win a Super Bowl, but hell, most quarterbacks don't.

Pumpy Tudors
07-28-2008, 03:33 PM
Tell me how Kwame Brown ass taste.
As a Grizzlies fan, I know how Kwame Brown's ass tastes. :(

gstelmack
07-28-2008, 03:33 PM
Steve Young and Vinny Testaverde needed to change teams to find some success. Top of the draft QBs that were declared busts by the team that drafted them.

Please. Vinny also needed ten years of development. He had ONE good season, '98 with the Jets, and everyone decided he was a decent QB.

Logan
07-28-2008, 03:46 PM
Smith is also still really, really young, given his time in the league.

Izulde
07-28-2008, 03:57 PM
Another season, another offensive coordinator for Alex Smith and the 49ers. I think the talent level has risen the last few years, most dramatically on defense, but with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel? He was doing ok last season before getting his shoulder crunched, but they rushed him back and it was a disaster.

I still think it is too soon to call Smith a bust.

This sort of reminds me of that one draft-day discussion with Drew Bledsoe after he got traded from the Patriots to the Bills and there was quite a bit of discussion on how Bledsoe had a lot of offensive coordinators like that his first few seasons as well.

larrymcg421
07-28-2008, 03:57 PM
Please. Vinny also needed ten years of development. He had ONE good season, '98 with the Jets, and everyone decided he was a decent QB.

I don't think that's quite accurate. I would say 1993, 1995, 1996, and 2003 were also good seasons, in addition to his great season of 1998. 93 is notable because it was the first year after he got away from the Bucs, which were a joke franchise at that time. So he had 4 out of 6 solid seasons after leaving the Bucs.

And that's kind of the point. Do we know how good Alex Smith is? It's possible his talent could be hidden so far, because the talent surrounding him is not so good.

RedKingGold
07-28-2008, 03:57 PM
This sort of argument always sounds pretty convincing... jury's still out, dealt a bad hand, weak line, no weapons, new system, etc. But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?

I don't have strong feelings about Smith, really, this just sounds awfully familiar. Pretty much every early QB pick who disappoints gets a round or two of this, it seems, before being declared a true bust.

Yup, Smith's a bust. I've given up*

*Although I secretly hope that giving up means Smith becomes the Steve Young I desperately want him to be.

st.cronin
07-28-2008, 03:59 PM
Probably not the right thread for this, but I still think KYLE ORTON could be quite a decent qb. I am not sure he will ever get another chance, though.

rjolley
07-28-2008, 04:16 PM
Probably not the right thread for this, but I still think KYLE ORTON could be quite a decent qb. I am not sure he will ever get another chance, though.I always thought he'd end up being the better Bears QB eventually.

That's not saying much, but I'm hoping for a Brees-like awakening the next time he's given the reigns.

Hey, a Bearsh fan can dream, right?

Sun Tzu
07-28-2008, 04:16 PM
Having seen just about every game Smith has ever played in, and watching Shaun Hill take snaps with the starting Offense in training camp, I think there's a decent chance Smith wont even be the starter this year. Hill has a respectable year last year with the same team, finishing with a QB rating of over 100, and he was able to actually move the team down the field consistently. Hill (outside of a bad day last week) is tearing it up in camp so far, and after each practice fans are mobing him for autographs even moreso than Smith now...we'll see how the preseason goes.

Bad-example
07-28-2008, 04:26 PM
Having seen just about every game Smith has ever played in, and watching Shaun Hill take snaps with the starting Offense in training camp, I think there's a decent chance Smith wont even be the starter this year. Hill has a respectable year last year with the same team, finishing with a QB rating of over 100, and he was able to actually move the team down the field consistently. Hill (outside of a bad day last week) is tearing it up in camp so far, and after each practice fans are mobing him for autographs even moreso than Smith now...we'll see how the preseason goes.

Barring injury, I don't see any way Hill wins that job in preseason. Alex moved the team pretty well too, before his shoulder got wrecked. And word is they appear pretty even thus far, and that means the guy with the big contract has the edge.

I predict Smith wins the starting job in TC and it goes from there.

Also, Smith had the long line at the autograph session the other day. Hill had < 10 people in his line.

DeToxRox
07-28-2008, 04:36 PM
Mike Martz is calling the shots in SF, so just wait for Smith to be broken down even further and left for dead so Martz can have one of his guys come in and he can scream reclimation! If you read this thread you know how I feel about Smith, and nothing has changed. He is Tim Tebow's future self.

Sun Tzu
07-28-2008, 04:37 PM
Also, Smith had the long line at the autograph session the other day. Hill had < 10 people in his line.

What day was this?

Nolan has said that both QB's will get equal time with the starting O during the preseason and then he'll make his decision based on performance in those games, as well as in TC. In the 3 games Smith played in before his shoulder got whacked last year, he had the following statlines.

15/31 126 0-0
11/17 126 0-0
17/35 209 1-1

In the 3 games Hill played in last year, he had the following statlines.

22/27 181 1-0
21/28 197 1-0 (+1 Rushing TD)
11/24 123 3-1

I'll be back @ training camp this coming sunday during the AM practice...let me know if you're gunna be there too.

Karlifornia
07-28-2008, 04:47 PM
How about whoever has the longer autograph line on the last day of training camp wins the starting job?

Bad-example
07-28-2008, 04:49 PM
What day was this?

They cancelled the afternoon practice Saturday and set up autograph tables on the field. From Maiocco's blog:

The biggest audience was for Patrick Willis, whose line stretched the entire width of the field. Vernon Davis and Frank Gore also had long lines, with Alex Smith's line a distant fourth. (When I checked Shaun Hill's line, it was about 10 deep.)

So Smith's line wasn't long like the first three guys mentioned but clearly he was a hotter ticket than Hill.

Nolan has said that both QB's will get equal time with the starting O during the preseason and then he'll make his decision based on performance in those games, as well as in TC. In the 3 games Smith played in before his shoulder got whacked last year, he had the following statlines.

15/31 126 0-0
11/17 126 0-0
17/35 209 1-1

In the 3 games Hill played in last year, he had the following statlines.

22/27 181 1-0
21/28 197 1-0 (+1 Rushing TD)
11/24 123 3-1

I'll be back @ training camp this coming sunday during the AM practice...let me know if you're gunna be there too.

Hill earned himself a nice little contract with that run. I still say that Smith wins that job. He has the big contract and the big arm. Unless Hill completely outplays him in the preseason...possible but unlikely...Smith is the starter on opening day. IMHO.

Not going to training camp but will be curious to read about your experience there. Good luck!

Sun Tzu
07-28-2008, 04:51 PM
How about whoever has the longer autograph line on the last day of training camp wins the starting job?

We respect the Chicago Bears franchise, but we don't want to adopt ALL of their Quarterback philosophies.

Spree
07-28-2008, 11:36 PM
with the young QB having to learn from a different OC every year, how can he be expected to excel?

Even with this go around, if he immediately grasps Martz's offense, I still don't think he has the arm strength to truly excel in it.

Vince
07-29-2008, 03:02 AM
Now, I haven't been there at all, so I'm behind you guys in that regard. But everyone I've heard has said that Smith is simply the better athlete in their workouts. Combine that with his contract and former #1 overall pick status, and I can't imagine that Hill wins the job even with a completely jaw-dropping pre-season.

I've heard some people make a very tenuous claim that the 49ers could be this year's New York Giants - a coach just about on his way out the door, a former #1 overall pick who has shown flashes of brilliance, but overall has been a disappointment and is on his way to being named a bust. Now, the 49ers aren't blessed with Strahan and Umenyiora (sp?), but Patrick Willis is a beast and they DO get Manny Lawson back this season. A healthy Gore and if Martz gets the offense clicking, and it COULD turn around quickly. I'm not foolish enough to think that they're going to win the Super Bowl, but I think that a .500 season and an outside shot at the playoffs isn't out of the question.

MacroGuru
07-29-2008, 08:04 AM
Smith was a product of Meyers offense at Utah, he ran more than threw and when he was running it did open up the passing. When he was drafted #1 overall I sat and laughed and laughed at my in-laws who are Niners fans and told them until the organization realizes this kid was a college system QB and does not have what it takes, they will just sit and mire around in the bottom half of the league...so far my crystal ball says I am right..

gstelmack
07-29-2008, 08:39 AM
I don't think that's quite accurate. I would say 1993, 1995, 1996, and 2003 were also good seasons, in addition to his great season of 1998. 93 is notable because it was the first year after he got away from the Bucs, which were a joke franchise at that time. So he had 4 out of 6 solid seasons after leaving the Bucs.

And that's kind of the point. Do we know how good Alex Smith is? It's possible his talent could be hidden so far, because the talent surrounding him is not so good.

I disagree most completely on Vinny's "good" years. He managed only 10 games in '93, which helped keep his INT total down. And only 56.5% completion that year. Overall, the stats in '93 are pretty close to those in '92 with the Bucs, just some mild improvement. '95 was okay, but again missed 3 games and was 17/10 on TD/INT. '96 I may grant you, and 2003 was again a 7 game season.

Vinny was not considered a "good" QB until that '98 season, and he's ridden it since.

flere-imsaho
07-29-2008, 08:46 AM
Probably not the right thread for this, but I still think KYLE ORTON could be quite a decent qb. I am not sure he will ever get another chance, though.

His brief time at the helm was probably the most consistently good (or better-than-average) the team has been in the past 5 or 10 years. Orton continues to strike me as a guy who's not necessarily going to win any games for you, but is going to put the rest of the team in a position to win. I'll take that over Good Rex/Bad Rex any day.

BishopMVP
07-29-2008, 09:58 AM
This sort of argument always sounds pretty convincing... jury's still out, dealt a bad hand, weak line, no weapons, new system, etc. But how many times has one of these "seems like a bust" QBs really turned it around once he got that problem settled?

I don't have strong feelings about Smith, really, this just sounds awfully familiar. Pretty much every early QB pick who disappoints gets a round or two of this, it seems, before being declared a true bust.Rick Mirer and Trent Dilfer stand out to me... Tommy Maddox came back and had a good season and then there is the McNair/Eli category where people forget they were calling him a bust. If we're going by the first three, Couch, David Carr, Harrington and certainly Alex Smith still have time. He was drafted at age 20, so he only turned 24 two months ago.

stevew
07-29-2008, 10:15 AM
Smith will be amazing once he transitions to the cfl.

Besides, even if he does work out in the NFL its largely irrelevant to why I started this thread......the sub 30 rating in a decent sample size was amazingly awful.

Pumpy Tudors
07-29-2008, 10:19 AM
hey steve sup

QuikSand
07-29-2008, 10:23 AM
Rick Mirer and Trent Dilfer stand out to me...

Bpth of these guys were picked in the top ten of the draft, by teams that intended to make them franchise quarterbacks. Did either of them, by any reasonable estimation, really overcome the bust label and demonstrate that they were really worthy of being a "franchise QB" selection?

By the way -- yes, I am aware that Trent Dilfer has a SB ring, I think it's been pretty well documented, top to bottom, what happened with that team.

I'm not trying to say it's impossible, nor that it never happens... but I think for every high pick who gets a second and third chance for these reasons and actually really works out, there are probably five more who really are the busts they appear to be.

TroyF
07-29-2008, 10:43 AM
Bpth of these guys were picked in the top ten of the draft, by teams that intended to make them franchise quarterbacks. Did either of them, by any reasonable estimation, really overcome the bust label and demonstrate that they were really worthy of being a "franchise QB" selection?

By the way -- yes, I am aware that Trent Dilfer has a SB ring, I think it's been pretty well documented, top to bottom, what happened with that team.

I'm not trying to say it's impossible, nor that it never happens... but I think for every high pick who gets a second and third chance for these reasons and actually really works out, there are probably five more who really are the busts they appear to be.

This.

I was someone who thought Smith would make a good QB. I'm finding very little to continue with that belief system. the rationalizations are nice, but are usually wrong. I think Smith is a better QB than what he's shown. But what is that really saying when he's shown himself to be worse than a typical Florida U. QB in the NFL?

After a couple of years that bad, it's time to just say he can't play and see if he can prove otherwise.

Anthony
07-29-2008, 10:52 AM
By the way -- yes, I am aware that Trent Dilfer has a SB ring, I think it's been pretty well documented, top to bottom, what happened with that team.


yes, let's just conveniently gloss over his Super Bowl ring so we can continue to try to make a point.

Dilfer has the same amount of Super Bowl rings as Brett Favre and Peyton Manning and one more than Marino. not saying he's in their class, but let's not just sweep his accomplishments under the rug.

Trent Green is another person to prove your theory wrong. bounced around from Redskins, to Rams and hit his stride with the Chiefs. a certain Rich Gannon, winner of an MVP one year, also discredits you. have you heard of Jake Plummer? add him to the list since being run out of town in Arizona he took the Broncos to the playoffs. maybe you remember one Kerry Collins, who took the Giants to the Super Bowl after bottoming out with the Saints, who were the 2nd stop on his journey.

this is all off the top of my head, i'll stop now rather than resort to google since i've already poo-poo'd all over your theory.

Pumpy Tudors
07-29-2008, 11:05 AM
Trent Green is another person to prove your theory wrong. bounced around from Redskins, to Rams and hit his stride with the Chiefs. a certain Rich Gannon, winner of an MVP one year, also discredits you. have you heard of Jake Plummer? add him to the list since being run out of town in Arizona he took the Broncos to the playoffs. maybe you remember one Kerry Collins, who took the Giants to the Super Bowl after bottoming out with the Saints, who were the 2nd stop on his journey.

this is all off the top of my head, i'll stop now rather than resort to google since i've already poo-poo'd all over your theory.
Trent Green was an 8th round draft pick. Rich Gannon was a 4th round draft pick. Plummer was a 2nd round pick whose career came to a screeching halt when he was reduced to only holding for placekicks. I'm not sure how any of these guys discredit or even relate to QuikSand's point. I guess you can argue the Collins point, though, so it wasn't a complete whiff.

Anthony
07-29-2008, 11:10 AM
Trent Green was an 8th round draft pick. Rich Gannon was a 4th round draft pick. Plummer was a 2nd round pick whose career came to a screeching halt when he was reduced to only holding for placekicks. I'm not sure how any of these guys discredit or even relate to QuikSand's point. I guess you can argue the Collins point, though, so it wasn't a complete whiff.

we're not talking about solely QB's drafted in the 1st round - we're talking about QB's who were franchise QB's with one team, and then based off of that reputation as being a one-time franchise QB getting another chance elsewhere. QS is claiming incorrectly that all too much these guys don't come through, and i'm correcting stating that one can name a handful off the top of their head about past QB's who've had success with subsequent teams.

Samdari
07-29-2008, 11:27 AM
we're talking about QB's who were franchise QB's with one team

Not if you are bringing up Green and Gannon.

rkmsuf
07-29-2008, 11:29 AM
I will call your Alex Smith and raise you Joey Harrington.

Bad-example
07-29-2008, 12:32 PM
This.

I was someone who thought Smith would make a good QB. I'm finding very little to continue with that belief system. the rationalizations are nice, but are usually wrong. I think Smith is a better QB than what he's shown. But what is that really saying when he's shown himself to be worse than a typical Florida U. QB in the NFL?

After a couple of years that bad, it's time to just say he can't play and see if he can prove otherwise.

This sure looks like a make-or-break season for Smith. Either he grabs the job and shows he can be a decent starter or he moves on to a second chance somewhere else.

TroyF
07-29-2008, 12:37 PM
yes, let's just conveniently gloss over his Super Bowl ring so we can continue to try to make a point.

Dilfer has the same amount of Super Bowl rings as Brett Favre and Peyton Manning and one more than Marino. not saying he's in their class, but let's not just sweep his accomplishments under the rug.

Trent Green is another person to prove your theory wrong. bounced around from Redskins, to Rams and hit his stride with the Chiefs. a certain Rich Gannon, winner of an MVP one year, also discredits you. have you heard of Jake Plummer? add him to the list since being run out of town in Arizona he took the Broncos to the playoffs. maybe you remember one Kerry Collins, who took the Giants to the Super Bowl after bottoming out with the Saints, who were the 2nd stop on his journey.

this is all off the top of my head, i'll stop now rather than resort to google since i've already poo-poo'd all over your theory.

Actually, you haven't poo pood over anyone's theory. The theory is that most guys drafted to become franchise QB's who suck badly the first few years don't ever make it. What's more, is that those who do make it, don't really become great QB's.

Let's look at your list:

Trent Dilfer - He sucked. OK? Do you understand this? He sucked badly. Even when he won a Super Bowl, he still sucked. The guy developed into a nice backup and rode the best defense in NFL history and Jamall Lewis to a title. He never lived up to his rep.

Rich Gannon - He wasn't drafted as a franchise QB. He was drafted as a project out of Delaware. As with most projects in the NFL, he played for a few teams before it all came together and he starred. Think Tony Romo, not Alex Smith with this comparison.

Kerry Collins - He succeeded early on. He was a pro bowler in his second season. This isn't a case of a guy who didn't develop. He had an alcohol problem and rebounded.

I could do the same with all of the others, but lets say all of your guys are right. Then we go down the line:

Heath Schuler
David Carr
Kyle Boller
JP Losman
Tommy Maddox
Ryan Leaf

I could go on for ten pages here. And that's all QS's point was. For every guy who succeeds, there are 20 that fail. I think the numbers back him up.

Sun Tzu
07-29-2008, 12:40 PM
If Alex Smith is teh suck this year, he will most definitely not be a 49er next year.

Huckleberry
07-29-2008, 12:42 PM
Oh yeah?

Well Roger Staubach was drafted to be a franchise QB and he didn't do jack for the first 4 years after he was drafted. He then went on to win two Super Bowls and he retired as the highest rated passer of all time. And, of course, he's in the Hall of Fame.

Well, he didn't do jack in the NFL for the first 4 years. Does that count? ;)

gkb
07-29-2008, 12:51 PM
I could do the same with all of the others, but lets say all of your guys are right. Then we go down the line:

Heath Schuler
David Carr
Kyle Boller
JP Losman
Tommy Maddox
Ryan Leaf

I could go on for ten pages here. And that's all QS's point was. For every guy who succeeds, there are 20 that fail. I think the numbers back him up.

Hang on...didn't Tommy win a championship in the XFL? :D

Also, I just read an article on Mike Wilpolt being named AFL Coach of the Year. I went to high school with him. Thought I'd share...

Pumpy Tudors
07-29-2008, 12:58 PM
Hang on...didn't Tommy win a championship in the XFL? :D
Your wife won a championship in my bed. OH SNAP

gkb
07-29-2008, 01:01 PM
Your wife won a championship in my bed. OH SNAP

Dammit Pumpy.

RedKingGold
07-29-2008, 01:36 PM
Anthony, the big point that you're missing is that Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins etc. may have won a Super Bowl or been to a Super Bowl, but they did not do so for the team that drafted them.

Unless Smith turns his career around with the 49er's, he'll always be considered a bus for San Francisco whether or not he turns around and wins 5 Super Bowls for another team.

Anthony
07-29-2008, 02:01 PM
I could go on for ten pages here. And that's all QS's point was. For every guy who succeeds, there are 20 that fail. I think the numbers back him up.

hi douche. trying learning to comprehend what you read. his statement was that for every franchise QB that goes to another team and succeeds - there are far more who won't. thus, using QBs who were "the man" on a previous team doesn't ensure future success. that's what he's saying, and he's incorrect.

as far as the "for every guy that succeeds there's 20 that fail", i hope you get a job with that amazing analysis and surprising revelation. you mean more QBs will not make it in the NFL than guys that do??? astounding!!! did you want to tell me something about Lance Bass that we may not already know?

Anthony
07-29-2008, 02:18 PM
Anthony, the big point that you're missing is that Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins etc. may have won a Super Bowl or been to a Super Bowl, but they did not do so for the team that drafted them.

Unless Smith turns his career around with the 49er's, he'll always be considered a bus for San Francisco whether or not he turns around and wins 5 Super Bowls for another team.

if he can somehow win 5 super bowls with another team, at what point would you say the blame wasn't on Smith during his 49ers years so much as it was maybe his coach's fault for bad gameplan decisions or the GM's fault for not surrounding him with better talent?

you have to understand something about NFL QBs. NFL QBs, if you're one of them - are the top best 32 QBs *in the world*. these are world class athletes. they can make any throw (some better than others), can absord encyclopedia's worth of gameplan, can make decisions in the span of less than 2 seconds while impending pain and hurt is oncoming. if i were to tell you that a 6'5", 270 lb DE was rushing on your blind side to try to tackle you as hard as he could, before you could piss your pants out of fright you'd be sacked. an NFL QB can block out that info and make a perfect throw. so, even the worst NFL QB is still one of the best 30 something QBs on earth.

how many QBs have been given the label of bust because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time? you think Ryan Leaf - college stud QB - all of a sudden forgot how to throw? back in '98 if you were Bill Polian you could've flipped a coin to determine whether to taken Manning or Leaf #1 overall. Leaf was huger in college than Brees and Rivers combined - but stick Tomlinson on the roster and all of a sudden Brees/Rivers look like world beaters. put Antonio Gates at TE and these guys can't make a bad throw. who did Leaf have on the roster? nobody, unless Natrone Means gets your tits tight and pointy. seriously, look at this Chargers roster (http://www.chargers-stats.com/1998.html) and tell me if this is an environment in which a young QB can thrive in or not. (in case you were wondering, Manning had some bums named Faulk and Harrison - in 1998).

NFL GMs have it right - you can't just look at a guy when he was at team X and just cuz he didn't get it done there think all of a sudden he magically lost his skills, skills he's been working on since Pop Warner, High School and College levels. the old "sometimes a chance of scenery might just be the remedy" adage is true.

Sun Tzu
07-29-2008, 02:21 PM
http://www.exposay.com/celebrity-photos/lance-bass-teen-vogue-young-hollywood-party-VmjYY2.jpg

Spree
07-30-2008, 02:26 AM
I will call your Alex Smith and raise you Joey Harrington.

I'm all in with Ryan Leaf.

TroyF
07-30-2008, 07:48 AM
hi douche. trying learning to comprehend what you read. his statement was that for every franchise QB that goes to another team and succeeds - there are far more who won't. thus, using QBs who were "the man" on a previous team doesn't ensure future success. that's what he's saying, and he's incorrect.

as far as the "for every guy that succeeds there's 20 that fail", i hope you get a job with that amazing analysis and surprising revelation. you mean more QBs will not make it in the NFL than guys that do??? astounding!!! did you want to tell me something about Lance Bass that we may not already know?

He's not saying that at all. Your reading skills mirror that of a three year old.

Alex Smith isn't a franchise QB. The team WANTS him to be a franchise QB, but he hasn't lived up to the hype. He's NOT the MAN on his team. And the point QS is making is that he'll likely never be the man.

The fact you pointed it out like that makes most of your other comments asinine. Rich Gannon was never meant to be the Man on the Vikings for example. He was nothing more than a functional QB project with a weak arm. They were already making plans to have Sean Salisbury start when Gannon tore his rotator cuff and was released. (Really sounds like being the man there, doesn't it? I mean, he was about to lose his job to Sean Salisbury. I guess Salisbury was THE MAN too, huh?)

So QS's point stll stands and is still correct. For all of the guys you mention as recovering from a horrible two or three year start, very few ever make it big with someone else. Most, like Heath Schuler or Akili Smith really are what they are. (that'd be horrible NFL QB's) Is Alex Smith that way? What he does this year will go a long way to determining that, but the numbers don't look good at all now.

His comments were never about someone who was actually a functional QB who just didn't live up to the hype. His comments were more about garbage QB's continuing to be garbage QB's no matter what the people trying to justify reasons for their slow development want to believe.

chesapeake
07-30-2008, 02:42 PM
The 49ers have very likely ruined a guy with good talent. In a stable situation surrounded by average NFL talent, maybe Smith succeeds, maybe he doesn't. But in the cesspool that the SF 49ers have become, we'll never know. I'm not sure even an Aikman or Manning (your choice) could have succeeded with the revolving door approach to coaching they have there.

At this point in his career, busting out a big season for SF seems highly unlikely. He probably will get picked up by someone. Maybe he'll be one of those guys that gets to sit as a backup for a couple of years, have time to master a system, and then restart a career when the starter goes down.

And maybe he'll always suck. I hope not.

Logan
07-30-2008, 04:05 PM
Can't really blame the "revolving door" when bringing in Norv Turner brought the best out of Smith and he started making real progress, and Turner took a promotion which caused Smith to regress.

Vince
07-30-2008, 07:29 PM
I'm aware that I'm a fanboy to the hilt...but I really think what Logan says is the truth...the revolving door at Offensive Coordinator has killed him.

I sadly don't think he'll ever make it in San Francisco - unless he has a flat-out amazing year this season (I'm talking MVP type numbers), people are going to be disappointed in him and will be calling for a change.

BishopMVP
07-30-2008, 10:13 PM
Both of these guys were picked in the top ten of the draft, by teams that intended to make them franchise quarterbacks. Did either of them, by any reasonable estimation, really overcome the bust label and demonstrate that they were really worthy of being a "franchise QB" selection?

By the way -- yes, I am aware that Trent Dilfer has a SB ring, I think it's been pretty well documented, top to bottom, what happened with that team.

I'm not trying to say it's impossible, nor that it never happens... but I think for every high pick who gets a second and third chance for these reasons and actually really works out, there are probably five more who really are the busts they appear to be.My argument is less that they weren't franchise QB's and more that giving them a 2nd/3rd chance wasn't a bad idea, and that there is a level between bust and franchise QB. There aren't that many "franchise QB's" in the NFL, 11 at best by my count (Brady, P. Manning, Favre, Romo, Palmer, Brees, McNair, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck and maybe Rivers)* less than one coming in per year. That leaves 20+ teams searching for an adequate starter. Getting a Trent Dilfer or Vinny Testaverde isn't a bad thing, and merely being a competent NFL starter means you weren't a bust in my eyes. (TroyF assertions aside, Trent Dilfer was a good QB 97-99 in TB, 2000 with BAL and did well as SEA's backup the next couple years.) Even Joey Harrington was a top-20 QB last year by the stats at FO. I still think there's a great argument against drafting a QB 1st-round, partly for cap reasons, but partly because you just aren't likely to draft a franchise QB.

It's also interesting that out of the top 10 picks that turned into franchise QB's, 2 struggled mightily early on, McNabb's rookie season being one of the worst of the past decade and McNair muddling in mediocrity for a good number of years. 3 more sat out their first year+ while only one was thrown into the fire as a rookie and survived (2 if we include Drew Bledsoe, who could still be starting in the league.) Meanwhile, a number of QB's that started strong wound up killing their team for a couple years just as much - Kerry Collins, Pennington, Culpepper.

* - If you're wondering where Eli Manning is, he's not a good QB, at least yet. He's been 2/4/1 in INT's and hasn't been in the top 30 Y/A his 3 years as a starter.back in '98 if you were Bill Polian you could've flipped a coin to determine whether to taken Manning or Leaf #1 overall.I've seen interviews with Polian where he basically laughed at the suggestion he was ever considering Leaf over Manning. It's easy to say in hindsight, but I'm pretty sure from Manning's freshman year on he was regarded as the surest bet to be a franchise QB in years, possibly ever.

Spree
07-31-2008, 01:35 AM
I'm aware that I'm a fanboy to the hilt...but I really think what Logan says is the truth...the revolving door at Offensive Coordinator has killed him.

I sadly don't think he'll ever make it in San Francisco - unless he has a flat-out amazing year this season (I'm talking MVP type numbers), people are going to be disappointed in him and will be calling for a change.

If he carries the team to the playoffs with decent numbers, I see no reason why 49er fans would be calling for his head.

Vince
07-31-2008, 10:05 AM
Well, I'm trying to temper my expectations this season, and I really think that the playoffs are a stretch.

Bad-example
08-19-2008, 02:13 PM
I don't know how long it will last, but J.T. O'Sullivan is currently the 49ers starter halfway through the exhibition season. I don't think anyone expected the dark horse to be leading the pack at this point.

stevew
08-19-2008, 02:19 PM
I'm about ready to claim victory in the Darko Milicek is a bust thread, I was wondering if I could just do a two-fer and claim victory here as well.

Cringer
08-19-2008, 02:27 PM
Another Brett Favre backup FTW. They seem to make their way around the league, good or bad.

albionmoonlight
08-19-2008, 02:33 PM
If J.T. O'Sullivan starts this season, then that would mean that Jim Haslet kept three starting-level QBs (Delhomme, Bulger, O'Sullivan) on the bench so that Aaron Brooks could keep starting for the Saints.

Cringer
08-19-2008, 02:36 PM
I wouldn't put O'Sullivan in the class of Delhomme and Bulger yet even if he starts, and I don't even have those two guys in a high class.

DeToxRox
08-19-2008, 02:58 PM
O'Sullivan is atrocious. Even if he was on the Lions, he couldn't get the ball to Roy or Calvin when he had the time. He is a Martz project that he wants to showcase as his "I am still a guru, just look!" persona.

Maple Leafs
08-19-2008, 04:32 PM
Another Brett Favre backup FTW. They seem to make their way around the league, good or bad.
Favre is now demanding a trade to San Fran so he can bury the kid, then leave again.

Honolulu_Blue
08-19-2008, 05:02 PM
O'Sullivan is atrocious. Even if he was on the Lions, he couldn't get the ball to Roy or Calvin when he had the time. He is a Martz project that he wants to showcase as his "I am still a guru, just look!" persona.

DeTox is wise. O'Sullivan is awful.

How bad is J.T. O'Sullivan, you ask?

J.T. O'Sullivan is so bad that The Hand of God descended upon Ford Field and healed Jon Kitna's concussion because God, Himself, couldn't handle watching O'Sullivan play anymore.

He's a creature of Martz (O'Sullivan, not the Almighty). Good luck with that!

DeToxRox
08-19-2008, 09:29 PM
DeTox is wise. O'Sullivan is awful.

How bad is J.T. O'Sullivan, you ask?

J.T. O'Sullivan is so bad that The Hand of God descended upon Ford Field and healed Jon Kitna's concussion because God, Himself, couldn't handle watching O'Sullivan play anymore.

He's a creature of Martz (O'Sullivan, not the Almighty). Good luck with that!

Well said.

Martz is licking his lips, waiting for Nolan to be shit canned so he can do whatever it takes to be back as a head coach in the NFL.

Huckleberry
08-22-2008, 09:32 PM
O'Sullivan has been named the Week 1 starter.

B & B
08-22-2008, 11:38 PM
*trips into the guestroom





We have the facts and we're voting YES>

stevew
09-10-2008, 03:40 PM
ESPN - Niners QB Smith has broken shoulder, won't play this season - NFL (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3579991)

Niners QB Smith has broken shoulder, won't play this season

I can't wait till they fire the "Suit of Failure" as well.

Bad-example
10-28-2009, 09:51 PM
One more chance for Smith to prove he can QB the 49ers.

RedKingGold
10-28-2009, 09:56 PM
He looked really good on Sunday and I think the coaching staff is finally starting to call plays he's comfortable with. Also, it helps that VD and Crabtree look like legit offensive weapons. So long as Gore is healthy, this is not only Smith's last chance to make it but also his best.

stevew
10-28-2009, 10:11 PM
I'm just glad the Niners are respectable again. It was bad seeing how far they had fallen.

Smith may be somewhat successful in a shotgun type atmosphere. But I think that will neutralize Gore. Who still is their best offensive player. Maybe they can get him a lot of screen looks.

Mr. Sparkle
10-28-2009, 10:47 PM
I'm just glad the Niners are respectable again. It was bad seeing how far they had fallen.

Smith may be somewhat successful in a shotgun type atmosphere. But I think that will neutralize Gore. Who still is their best offensive player. Maybe they can get him a lot of screen looks.

I actually think the opposite. Teams have been dumping 8 players in the box because they know Hill couldn't throw over the top of them. Smith can, and if they spread the field with 3 WR sets + Davis, I think it will give Gore more room to run. Say what you will about Alex Smith, but he can stretch the field far better than Shaun Hill ever could.

It would also be nice if the OL would remember how to block consistently.

Karlifornia
10-28-2009, 11:05 PM
I hope people can curb their impatience if the 49ers get pulverized in Indy this Sunday. Both of my fantasy QB's (Brady and Palmer) were on bye this week, and I toyed with the idea of picking up Smith off the wire, but remembered they were playing the Colts and thought better of it.

I still hope he pans out, just so I can point and laugh at Detox.

stevew
10-28-2009, 11:07 PM
I was speaking more specifically about running out of the shotgun formation.

I didn't get to see the game on Sunday but I would be shocked if he took many conventional snap looks.

Karlifornia
10-28-2009, 11:13 PM
I was speaking more specifically about running out of the shotgun formation.

I didn't get to see the game on Sunday but I would be shocked if he took many conventional snap looks.

Don't forget that the Niners were down 21-0 when Smith came into the game. I would have to imagine they'll start the game with some focus on the run..but who knows?

Vince, Pt. II
10-29-2009, 12:59 AM
I worry HUGELY about the pass rush. They've got Rachal and Snyder both starting on the right side, and the Offensive Line is going to be absolutely destroyed by Freeney and Mathis. I'd imagine the Colts won't even have to blitz, so they'll be able to leave 7 in coverage, and that the 49ers are going to have a VERY hard time all game long.

Sigh.

DeToxRox
12-23-2010, 05:27 PM
And that's a wrap.

Matthean
12-23-2010, 07:55 PM
And that's a wrap.

Considering they could go back to him, it's not 100%. But really, I don't think he really has a chance at being a starter anywhere at this point. He's just a temp fill in for the next guy at best.

miami_fan
12-23-2010, 08:13 PM
Considering they could go back to him, it's not 100%. But really, I don't think he really has a chance at being a starter anywhere at this point. He's just a temp fill in for the next guy at best.

I would not go that far. I could see him landing in Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Arizona and Seattle all come to mind as teams with whom he could at least compete for a starting job.

RedKingGold
11-13-2011, 04:14 PM
I'm a believer again.

Seriously, would you rather have Smith or Mike Vick right now?

RedKingGold
11-13-2011, 04:17 PM
By the way, a lot of banned users have posted in this thread. Quite comical reading it back.

booradley
11-13-2011, 04:23 PM
"Hi Douche" was pretty much the comment that made this thread. Just sayin ...

SteveMax58
11-13-2011, 04:49 PM
Wow...unbelievable to think the conversation on Alex Smith has been going on for this long. I mean... if pressed for the year he was drafted, I would probably get it after a little thought but hard to believe this was 6+ years ago.

jbergey22
11-13-2011, 05:04 PM
While I think Smith was dicked around with much of his career I think Harbaugh is a master at handeling qbs. His former QB is going to be the #1 overall pick and now it appears he has given Smith the confidence to become a reliable qb.

I put much of this on Harbaugh.

stevew
11-13-2011, 05:55 PM
Alex Smith hasn't blown a playoff game, yet. At least he has that going.

Dutch
11-13-2011, 06:01 PM
You have to blame Jim Harbaugh for the realization of 1.1 Alex Smith. Mike Singletary's googly eyed approach to coaching couldn't crack the code...but apparently knowing a little something about NFL offenses has the right effect.

GrantDawg
11-13-2011, 06:07 PM
You have to blame Jim Harbaugh for the realization of 1.1 Alex Smith. Mike Singletary's googly eyed approach to coaching couldn't crack the code...but apparently knowing a little something about NFL offenses has the right effect.


Harbaugh is genius.

SteveMax58
11-13-2011, 06:35 PM
Harbaugh is genius.

Or at least antidope.

dave731
11-13-2011, 07:35 PM
Harbaugh puts Alex Smith in Room 23 while images of Montana and Young cycle through with messages like "YOU ARE AN ELITE QUARTERBACK"

It appears to be having the desired effect! I will take 8-1!!

lcjjdnh
11-13-2011, 07:50 PM
Harbaugh is genius.

Interesting piece on the adjustments he's made:
Chris Brown on the success of the 49ers and Alex Smith - Grantland (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7218353/quarterbacking-made-simple)

Barkeep49
11-14-2011, 06:49 AM
That Grantland piece is really good reading and I definitely recommend it.

I think that Smith is in the Trent Dilfer category meaning that he's a good enough QB not to lose a Super Bowl, but the 49'ers defense and running game aren't (unfortunately) good enough to win one. And I never would have thought Smith would reach that level.

AgustusM
11-15-2011, 12:10 AM
I love Harbaugh and as a life long Niner fan had been hoping he would get the job after seeing what he was able to do at Stanford.

I also really enjoy the smartfootball website and read it every week.

But this article seemed to imply that Harbugh invented the "hot" route concept, which is nonsense. It has been around forever - hell we have used in our high school blocking schemes for the past decade.

whomario
11-15-2011, 03:14 AM
But this article seemed to imply that Harbugh invented the "hot" route concept, which is nonsense. It has been around forever - hell we have used in our high school blocking schemes for the past decade.

I believe that is sort of the point they are making, only in reverse : Harbough was willing to implement sth so basic that has a relatively low complexity in a league where the consensus is that you need to make things more complex rather than more basic to win.

They arenīt lauding him for inventing it, they are lauding him for using it at the highest level.

RainMaker
11-15-2011, 03:49 AM
I seriously can't believe that he has turned them into an 8-1 team without any of the offseason stuff. Is there any doubt he wins Coach of the Year?

AgustusM
11-15-2011, 03:54 PM
I believe that is sort of the point they are making, only in reverse : Harbough was willing to implement sth so basic that has a relatively low complexity in a league where the consensus is that you need to make things more complex rather than more basic to win.

They arenīt lauding him for inventing it, they are lauding him for using it at the highest level.

got it, that wasn't what I got when I read it, but that makes perfect sense.

Barkeep49
01-14-2012, 08:32 PM
I think that Smith is in the Trent Dilfer category meaning that he's a good enough QB not to lose a Super Bowl, but the 49'ers defense and running game aren't (unfortunately) good enough to win one. And I never would have thought Smith would reach that level.

Well I have to say that Smith won us a game tonight. I am astounded that he made the plays he made. It actually gives me hope that we might be able to exploit a weak GB defense.

SackAttack
01-14-2012, 08:38 PM
Well I have to say that Smith won us a game tonight. I am astounded that he made the plays he made. It actually gives me hope that we might be able to exploit a weak GB defense.

Green Bay's defense isn't weak so much as overly aggressive sometimes. It's essentially the same personnel, with the primary exception of Nick Collins, that was so stalwart for them last year.

The thing this year is they've gotten aggressive about trying to force turnovers. When it works, Aaron Rodgers gives the opponents long faces to go with their long day.

When it doesn't...things get interesting.

That's the key, assuming Green Bay survives the rematch with the Giants (the first time around was plenty 'interesting' for me, thanks). If Smith and the 49ers have the turnover issues that plagued the Saints today, it'll be over by halftime. If they can protect the football, it takes a lot of pressure off the 49er defense, and becomes a much tighter game.

Matthean
01-14-2012, 08:40 PM
Let's just say the temperature in GB is slightly cooler than in San Fran.

SackAttack
01-14-2012, 08:42 PM
Let's just say the temperature in GB is slightly cooler than in San Fran.

You *say* that, but it was 51 degrees here on the 11th, followed by 6 inches of snow on the 12th.

This year, I'm not sure I'd have the stones to predict what the weather's going to be like next weekend.

Matthean
01-14-2012, 08:46 PM
10 day forecast puts the high around mid 30s.

SackAttack
01-14-2012, 08:51 PM
10 day forecast puts the high around mid 30s.

10 day forecast did the same thing leading into the 11th and the weather went "LOL WI". Projected low 30s, ended up being 51.

Now, I'm not saying it won't be mid-30s, but realize that even that's high for January (20s is more normal; average for January 22nd is 24 or so).

If you wanna compare to last year, the high was 10 or 11 on 1/22/11. So you're already talking about a significantly warmer day than is usual for the area this time of year. The 6" of snow we got on the 12th was the first significant snowfall we've had all year.

The 10-day was doing the same thing around the New Year, if I'm not mistaken. My birthday was projected at 30-something, and it ended up being 51. It was like "What the hell? Who invited October back?"

All I'm saying is, 37's quite possible, but the forecast has been unpredictable as all hell in Green Bay this winter. It could end up being 17, or we could see 51 again.

Buccaneer
01-14-2012, 08:55 PM
10 day forecast did the same thing leading into the 11th and the weather went "LOL WI". Projected low 30s, ended up being 51.

Now, I'm not saying it won't be mid-30s, but realize that even that's high for January (20s is more normal; average for January 22nd is 24 or so).

If you wanna compare to last year, the high was 10 or 11 on 1/22/11. So you're already talking about a significantly warmer day than is usual for the area this time of year. The 6" of snow we got on the 12th was the first significant snowfall we've had all year.

The 10-day was doing the same thing around the New Year, if I'm not mistaken. My birthday was projected at 30-something, and it ended up being 51. It was like "What the hell? Who invited October back?"

All I'm saying is, 37's quite possible, but the forecast has been unpredictable as all hell in Green Bay this winter. It could end up being 17, or we could see 51 again.

tl;dr Long-range weather forecasting sucks.

SackAttack
01-14-2012, 08:56 PM
tl;dr Long-range weather forecasting sucks.

True enough.

What I'm saying is, the first few years I lived out here, 'sucked' was still like horseshoes and hand grenades. Close enough, you know? They'd predict 30, and it'd be 25 instead. Whoopee.

This year? No.

Matthean
01-14-2012, 08:58 PM
10 day forecast did the same thing leading into the 11th and the weather went "LOL WI". Projected low 30s, ended up being 51.

Now, I'm not saying it won't be mid-30s, but realize that even that's high for January (20s is more normal; average for January 22nd is 24 or so).

If you wanna compare to last year, the high was 10 or 11 on 1/22/11. So you're already talking about a significantly warmer day than is usual for the area this time of year. The 6" of snow we got on the 12th was the first significant snowfall we've had all year.

The 10-day was doing the same thing around the New Year, if I'm not mistaken. My birthday was projected at 30-something, and it ended up being 51. It was like "What the hell? Who invited October back?"

All I'm saying is, 37's quite possible, but the forecast has been unpredictable as all hell in Green Bay this winter. It could end up being 17, or we could see 51 again.

Those are pretty much the high for the week so there easily could be a lower temperature during the game. San Fran was still 50+ today.

stevew
01-04-2014, 05:06 PM
Perhaps there were some things said in here that weren't necessarily correct in retrospect. Gotta admit, though, Smith has had absolutely the longest leash I've ever seen given to a #1 pick. Guys don't just get demoted 2-3 times, and then miss entire seasons and get benched for Shaun Hill and JT O'Sullivan and then still get another chance to start and look good and then get benched yet again and then get traded and suddenly look special in the playoffs. If this shit happened in FOF everyone would be MF'ing the game and being like wtf is this volatility BS.

Abe Sargent
01-04-2014, 05:12 PM
Perhaps there were some things said in here that weren't necessarily correct in retrospect. Gotta admit, though, Smith has had absolutely the longest leash I've ever seen given to a #1 pick. Guys don't just get demoted 2-3 times, and then miss entire seasons and get benched for Shaun Hill and JT O'Sullivan and then still get another chance to start and look good and then get benched yet again and then get traded and suddenly look special in the playoffs. If this shit happened in FOF everyone would be MF'ing the game and being like wtf is this volatility BS.

We've seen other players come on later in their careers, like Rich Gannon.

Julio Riddols
01-04-2014, 05:16 PM
The ultimate game manager that can sometimes step up into elite level play. I think he was just a late bloomer who people always saw the talent and work ethic in. He doesn't make mistakes often, and when you surround a QB like that with a strong supporting cast, he won't lose you many games on his own. Might not win many by himself either, but that kind of steady play will give a good team a chance against anyone.

CraigSca
01-04-2014, 05:18 PM
Was listening to a radio show in Orlando that had one of the guys from Football Outsiders. The show was devoted to quarterbacks and attempting to quantify them statistically. The gentleman from FO was saying that Alex Smith was probably the most underrated QB in the NFL, and, according to their analysis was better than Kaepernick. This was about 4 weeks ago.

Julio Riddols
01-04-2014, 05:23 PM
I'm actually hoping he helps change things so QB's get a longer leash sometimes. There are guys you can tell don't have it like Weeden and Gabbert, then there are guys like Smith who had it, but just needed the right scheme. He also seems to be exceptionally mentally tough after dealing with being unwanted for much of his career.

Tigercat
01-04-2014, 05:31 PM
We've seen other players come on later in their careers, like Rich Gannon.

See also: Steve Beurelein, Chris Chandler, Tommy Maddox.

Senator
01-05-2014, 01:12 AM
See also: Steve Beurelein, Chris Chandler, Tommy Maddox.

Jeff George, Bob Avellini, James Harris, Don Strock

Julio Riddols
01-05-2014, 01:51 AM
Seems like it happens about twice every decade or so.

BishopMVP
01-05-2014, 07:52 AM
Jeff George, Bob Avellini, James Harris, Don StrockTrent Dilfer.

One thing that was often overlooked early in his career was how young Smith was - he was actually 20 when he was drafted. Even now when it feels like he's been around forever, he's not even 30 years old. Compare that to an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady who didn't start until they were 24, and think about how much you developed over those years.

cuervo72
01-05-2014, 09:52 AM
Heck, Steve Young was 30 when he started for SF.

fantom1979
01-05-2014, 11:57 PM
Then you have a guy like Vinnie Testaverde, had 275 career touchdowns and 267 career picks, but somehow in 1998, at age 35, goes 29TD/7INT with a 101.6 Passer Rating. Jets went 12-1 in games he started.

Considering that in his first 11 years Testaverde was 48-83 as a starter and threw more picks than touchdowns, it is amazing that he was still in the league in '98. Granted, he did play on some brutal Tampa teams early in his career.

TroyF
01-06-2014, 12:42 AM
Funny reading my posts in the thread. I started out supporting Smith and then became frustrated when he didn't develop. Never got back into the thread until now. I don't think he's a franchise QB, but I do think he's a good QB.

He's a guy that needs a good defense and weapons around him to be successful. The shootout in Indy is something he's generally not capable of getting involved in. I do think you can win a Super Bowl with him, I just don't think he can be the focal point if you do. If the Chiefs win it with him as QB, it'll be because Charles opens up the play action game, they get a true deep threat AND above average TE, and the defense plays like it did the first seven weeks against real life NFL QB's instead of backups.

TroyF
01-06-2014, 12:55 AM
Was listening to a radio show in Orlando that had one of the guys from Football Outsiders. The show was devoted to quarterbacks and attempting to quantify them statistically. The gentleman from FO was saying that Alex Smith was probably the most underrated QB in the NFL, and, according to their analysis was better than Kaepernick. This was about 4 weeks ago.


Very shocked at this one. Football Outsiders final numbers ranked Keapernick at #8 and Smith at #20 in their QB rankings. Last year Kaep came in at #13, Smith at #15.

QBR puts Keap at #7, Smith at #24.

While the numbers are similar, Kaep had to go against top ten defenses 7 times. In fact, of the top 7 defenses in football, he only missed Cincy and his own team. Smith, on the other hand, faced a bottom half of the league defense in 10 of his 15 starts.

flere-imsaho
01-06-2014, 08:31 AM
Quoting myself from 2005 to expose how very wrong I was:

Besides, what I've heard out of Green Bay is that Rodgers is appalling. They should have gotten J.P. Losman instead (Favre clone, needs a few years to learn).

kcchief19
01-06-2014, 09:39 AM
Funny reading my posts in the thread. I started out supporting Smith and then became frustrated when he didn't develop. Never got back into the thread until now. I don't think he's a franchise QB, but I do think he's a good QB.

He's a guy that needs a good defense and weapons around him to be successful. The shootout in Indy is something he's generally not capable of getting involved in. I do think you can win a Super Bowl with him, I just don't think he can be the focal point if you do. If the Chiefs win it with him as QB, it'll be because Charles opens up the play action game, they get a true deep threat AND above average TE, and the defense plays like it did the first seven weeks against real life NFL QB's instead of backups.
As I said on Saturday, Smith put up 30 points or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. The guy can score. He's not going to go out and throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns just because he can. Can he do that? Absolutely. But why do it if you don't have to?

His performance on Saturday was phenomenal. He threw for 378 yards and 4 TDs, with absolutely zero playmakers. Charles goes down in the first series. Avery had one big bomb before he went down. Dwayne Bowe is nothing more than a No. 2 wideout. He has no TE or other dependable receivers. Denver has five receivers better than anybody Kansas City has.

Smith is an outlier without a doubt. I think much of his lack of development his first five years in the league had a lot to do with age and completely dysfunctional coaching. Singletary and Nolan are horrible head coaches with no offensive common sense whatsoever. He went from the spread option in Utah to an Air Coryell offense in San Francisco with a different coordinator every season. It wasn't until Harbaugh came along that decided maybe he should tailor the offense to his QB. You almost have to disregard the first five years of his career.

I love Smith, and I admit I'm not sure I'd label him a franchise quarterback in the sense that he's a guy who can lead you to the playoffs almost every year for eight years. He's better than Cutler. I'd take him over Flacco and Romo too -- say what you will, but Alex Smith didn't lose a single game for his team this year.

I'm not sure the lesson to learn from Smith is that NFL teams need to give QBs more time and a longer leash than the lesson you need to get QBs doing what they're good at. Too many teams try to pound square pegs into round holes.

RedKingGold
01-06-2014, 10:47 AM
As I said on Saturday, Smith put up 30 points or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. The guy can score. He's not going to go out and throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns just because he can. Can he do that? Absolutely. But why do it if you don't have to?

His performance on Saturday was phenomenal. He threw for 378 yards and 4 TDs, with absolutely zero playmakers. Charles goes down in the first series. Avery had one big bomb before he went down. Dwayne Bowe is nothing more than a No. 2 wideout. He has no TE or other dependable receivers. Denver has five receivers better than anybody Kansas City has.

Smith is an outlier without a doubt. I think much of his lack of development his first five years in the league had a lot to do with age and completely dysfunctional coaching. Singletary and Nolan are horrible head coaches with no offensive common sense whatsoever. He went from the spread option in Utah to an Air Coryell offense in San Francisco with a different coordinator every season. It wasn't until Harbaugh came along that decided maybe he should tailor the offense to his QB. You almost have to disregard the first five years of his career.

I love Smith, and I admit I'm not sure I'd label him a franchise quarterback in the sense that he's a guy who can lead you to the playoffs almost every year for eight years. He's better than Cutler. I'd take him over Flacco and Romo too -- say what you will, but Alex Smith didn't lose a single game for his team this year.

I'm not sure the lesson to learn from Smith is that NFL teams need to give QBs more time and a longer leash than the lesson you need to get QBs doing what they're good at. Too many teams try to pound square pegs into round holes.

Nailed it.

Mizzou B-ball fan
01-06-2014, 10:50 AM
As I said on Saturday, Smith put up 30 points or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. The guy can score. He's not going to go out and throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns just because he can. Can he do that? Absolutely. But why do it if you don't have to?

His performance on Saturday was phenomenal. He threw for 378 yards and 4 TDs, with absolutely zero playmakers. Charles goes down in the first series. Avery had one big bomb before he went down. Dwayne Bowe is nothing more than a No. 2 wideout. He has no TE or other dependable receivers. Denver has five receivers better than anybody Kansas City has.

Smith is an outlier without a doubt. I think much of his lack of development his first five years in the league had a lot to do with age and completely dysfunctional coaching. Singletary and Nolan are horrible head coaches with no offensive common sense whatsoever. He went from the spread option in Utah to an Air Coryell offense in San Francisco with a different coordinator every season. It wasn't until Harbaugh came along that decided maybe he should tailor the offense to his QB. You almost have to disregard the first five years of his career.

I love Smith, and I admit I'm not sure I'd label him a franchise quarterback in the sense that he's a guy who can lead you to the playoffs almost every year for eight years. He's better than Cutler. I'd take him over Flacco and Romo too -- say what you will, but Alex Smith didn't lose a single game for his team this year.

I'm not sure the lesson to learn from Smith is that NFL teams need to give QBs more time and a longer leash than the lesson you need to get QBs doing what they're good at. Too many teams try to pound square pegs into round holes.

+2

So excited to see what weapons they can put around Charles and Smith with another offseason of moves. They did extremely well in their first offseason.

Logan
01-06-2014, 10:54 AM
I'm glad Smith was good enough to turn the 3rd rounder owed to the Niners this year into a 2nd.

RedKingGold
01-06-2014, 11:01 AM
I'm glad Smith was good enough to turn the 3rd rounder owed to the Niners this year into a 2nd.

Nailed it 2: Electric Bugaloo.

Mizzou B-ball fan
01-06-2014, 11:06 AM
I'm glad Smith was good enough to turn the 3rd rounder owed to the Niners this year into a 2nd.

So are the Chiefs fans, so everyone's happy.

Logan
01-06-2014, 11:27 AM
So are the Chiefs fans, so everyone's happy.

Speaking of Chiefs fans' opinions, are you really not going to share your thoughts on Saturday?

Matthean
01-06-2014, 11:43 AM
Speaking of Chiefs fans' opinions, are you really not going to share your thoughts on Saturday?

"They were who we thought they were."

Mizzou B-ball fan
01-06-2014, 12:52 PM
Speaking of Chiefs fans' opinions, are you really not going to share your thoughts on Saturday?

I actually had a 150 person event start at 7:00 PM at the winery, so it was a nice distraction from what we saw right before it started. Hence the reason I didn't post hardly at all after that time.

Would have loved to see the Chiefs win, but the injury string was brutal. Felt like I was watching the football version of 'Ten Little Indians'. Add in the fortuitous bounce on the fumble and it was just one of those days.

Considering what they had coming into this season, I'm thrilled with what we saw overall and I'm excited to see what Reid and staff can do with another offseason of work.

BillJasper
01-06-2014, 01:00 PM
Considering what they had coming into this season, I'm thrilled with what we saw overall and I'm excited to see what Reid and staff can do with another offseason of work.

I think three things concern me about the Chiefs heading into next season:

1. The defense obviously isn't as good as everyone thought when they were shutting down cupcakes at the beginning of the year.

2. Andy Reid. I think he made some really questionable decisions heading down the stretch, including resting his starters in San Diego.

3. Finishing 2-6 after a 9-0 start will definitely have the players thinking heading into 2014. "Are we the 2-14 team from 2012 that just got lucky?" The defensive collapse in the second half at Indy isn't going to help. That last win of 2013 is going to seem like decades ago by the time the 2014 season starts.

Mizzou B-ball fan
01-06-2014, 01:04 PM
I think three things concern me about the Chiefs heading into next season:

1. The defense obviously isn't as good as everyone thought when they were shutting down cupcakes at the beginning of the year.

2. Andy Reid. I think he made some really questionable decisions heading down the stretch, including resting his starters in San Diego.

3. Finishing 2-6 after a 9-0 start will definitely have the players thinking heading into 2014. "Are we the 2-14 team from 2012 that just got lucky?" The defensive collapse in the second half at Indy isn't going to help. That last win of 2013 is going to seem like decades ago by the time the 2014 season starts.

Absolutely no concerns about the last two. As for the defense, I'll reserve judgment until we see what they do in the off-season.

TroyF
01-06-2014, 01:28 PM
As I said on Saturday, Smith put up 30 points or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. The guy can score. He's not going to go out and throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns just because he can. Can he do that? Absolutely. But why do it if you don't have to?

His performance on Saturday was phenomenal. He threw for 378 yards and 4 TDs, with absolutely zero playmakers. Charles goes down in the first series. Avery had one big bomb before he went down. Dwayne Bowe is nothing more than a No. 2 wideout. He has no TE or other dependable receivers. Denver has five receivers better than anybody Kansas City has.

Smith is an outlier without a doubt. I think much of his lack of development his first five years in the league had a lot to do with age and completely dysfunctional coaching. Singletary and Nolan are horrible head coaches with no offensive common sense whatsoever. He went from the spread option in Utah to an Air Coryell offense in San Francisco with a different coordinator every season. It wasn't until Harbaugh came along that decided maybe he should tailor the offense to his QB. You almost have to disregard the first five years of his career.

I love Smith, and I admit I'm not sure I'd label him a franchise quarterback in the sense that he's a guy who can lead you to the playoffs almost every year for eight years. He's better than Cutler. I'd take him over Flacco and Romo too -- say what you will, but Alex Smith didn't lose a single game for his team this year.

I'm not sure the lesson to learn from Smith is that NFL teams need to give QBs more time and a longer leash than the lesson you need to get QBs doing what they're good at. Too many teams try to pound square pegs into round holes.


As I told you in the thread yesterday, the offense wasn't that great in 3 of those 4 games.

After the loss to Denver, KC scored 38, 28, 45, 56 points.

The San Diego 38 point explosion was their best regular season offensive game of the year. They played very well.

The 28 against Denver? 1 TD was on a kick return, the other on a 22 yard drive. Not very impressive against the Denver defense.

The 45 against Washinton? This included two returns for TD's and scoring drives of 13, 25 and 41 yards.

Against the Raiders, they had a return TD off an INT and drives of 11, 16, and 28 yards for TD's. Two other TD drives were under 50 yards.


I know your reaction is to say "that's all they needed and they damned well got it" OK, that's fine. Do you really think you can sustain yourself on 40 yard TD drives and return scores against winning football teams?

Now, the Alex Smith that played Saturday? Stunning. He was doing things he hasn't ever done. Accurate with deep passes. Smart decisions to run with the ball. Everything you want in a franchise QB. It was a beautiful display of quarterbacking and one he had not given all season long. This was a season high for passing yards, rushing yards, and passing TD's. It was second in yards per pass attempt.

For the Chiefs as a team it was the first time they had 30 first downs in a game, first time they hit 500 yards (only the 2nd they hit over 400), and also ranked as their 4th best rushing output of the season. This was on the road, without their best player and against a defense who had nailed him shut just a few weeks ago.

Does he get props for that? Yes, yes, a thousand times yes. He deserves tons of accolades for it. But until he shows he can do half of that against above average defenses, that's the anomaly, it isn't Alex Smith.

I don't hate Alex Smith, in face I just said you could win a Super Bowl with him. But is he a guy you throw out there and say "He'll get us 10 wins, even if we don't give him a running game, even if half our team is hurt, even if our WR are decimated, out defense is mediocre etc.) No, he isn't. Aaron Rodgers is. Peyton Manning. Tom Brady. Andrew Luck. Drew Brees.

Next year will be interesting for both Alex Smith and the Chiefs. Next year they will face some defenses. Seattle, San Fran, Arizona, and the Jets to name four. Play like he did Saturday in those games? I'll admit I was wrong about both the Chiefs and Alex Smith. Odds aren't good though. For starters, Smith isn't likely to become someone different now. Second, the Chiefs were remarkably healthy this year. something not likely to repeat itself next year Third, the schedule toughens up.

I would be stunned if KC were in the playoffs next year. If they are, you guys can grill up the crow and I'll show up fork in hand to down it.

Logan
01-06-2014, 01:34 PM
I think three things concern me about the Chiefs heading into next season:

1. The defense obviously isn't as good as everyone thought when they were shutting down cupcakes at the beginning of the year.

2. Andy Reid. I think he made some really questionable decisions heading down the stretch, including resting his starters in San Diego.

3. Finishing 2-6 after a 9-0 start will definitely have the players thinking heading into 2014. "Are we the 2-14 team from 2012 that just got lucky?" The defensive collapse in the second half at Indy isn't going to help. That last win of 2013 is going to seem like decades ago by the time the 2014 season starts.

Absolutely no concerns about the last two. As for the defense, I'll reserve judgment until we see what they do in the off-season.

"Really questionable decisions" has been synonymous with Andy Reid since early in his days in Philly, so I'm not sure why you would feel so confident in him.

gstelmack
01-06-2014, 02:00 PM
Now, the Alex Smith that played Saturday? Stunning. He was doing things he hasn't ever done. Accurate with deep passes.

Well, except for the deep ball to Bowe that probably would have sealed the game...

DaddyTorgo
01-06-2014, 02:03 PM
I don't hate Alex Smith, in face I just said you could win a Super Bowl with him. But is he a guy you throw out there and say "He'll get us 10 wins, even if we don't give him a running game, even if half our team is hurt, even if our WR are decimated, out defense is mediocre etc.) No, he isn't. Aaron Rodgers is. Peyton Manning. Tom Brady. Andrew Luck. Drew Brees.

.

I wouldn't put Luck in the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers class yet. Wayyy too small a sample size. Otherwise you're saying that it should include such "small sample size" wonders as RGIII, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton (now some of these guys may belong in that class one day true, but it's far too early to tell on any of them IMO).

He's got a career 81.5 QB Rating after 2 seasons. That's below Cam Newton by like 5 points (to use just one example).

BillJasper
01-06-2014, 02:48 PM
I wouldn't put Luck in the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers class yet. Wayyy too small a sample size. Otherwise you're saying that it should include such "small sample size" wonders as RGIII, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton (now some of these guys may belong in that class one day true, but it's far too early to tell on any of them IMO).

He's got a career 81.5 QB Rating after 2 seasons. That's below Cam Newton by like 5 points (to use just one example).

I agree with everything you say here. The only thing about Luck is that he seems to have ice water in his veins in the fourth quarter and I'm not sure I see that changing anytime soon. The guy simply doesn't give up on a game until the clock reaches triple zeroes.

TroyF
01-06-2014, 08:56 PM
I wouldn't put Luck in the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers class yet. Wayyy too small a sample size. Otherwise you're saying that it should include such "small sample size" wonders as RGIII, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton (now some of these guys may belong in that class one day true, but it's far too early to tell on any of them IMO).

He's got a career 81.5 QB Rating after 2 seasons. That's below Cam Newton by like 5 points (to use just one example).

Do you think the Colts, as constructed, would be anywhere near the playoffs without Luck? They have an average running game. Their defense is ranked 20th. Reggie Wayne went down in week 7. I'm sorry, but I believe Luck is there now with the wins.

Honestly, I think Russell is very close to being there or already there as well. Given all things being equal, I think these guys are just too good to let their teams go 6-10. If Luck didn't lose with the talent around him these last couple of years, I don't see it happening as he matures and gets better talent around him.