Gambling (Jags-Pats)

[albionmoonlight]

"Look at the common wisdom and run the other way" seems to be a basic sports gambling axiom.

Does that mean that taking the Jags and the points is a pretty good proposition? No one seems to think that they have a chance to stay within 35 points this game.

[Butter]

I'm not a sports gambler, but I think Jacksonville actually has a shot in this game. How many points are we talking here?

[Rich1033]

Jags are +7.5, and I would take them. Redskins +3 is the best bet this weekend IMO.

[rkmsuf]

Most people and places are supporting the Jags and the points with NE winning. At least that's the majority of opinion I've heard.

Myself I would agree. Jags will give a good effort. I'd expect a close game and NE win too.

[cthomer5000]

Ok, is it me or does the over look extremely appealing for the Tampa/Washington game?

It's at 37.5 right now.
These teams combined for 71 points in week 10.
Washington game totals since then: 29, 40, 33, 30, 42, 55, 51
Tampa game totals since then: 57, 23, 13, 30 , 28 51, 40

Tampa home game point totals this year: 22, 30, 40, 48, 71, 23, 51, 40


I'm considering betting that over on it's own, or teasing it with Washington +3... (I think I feel pretty good about Washington losing by less than 9 or less and at least 31 points being scored).

[st.cronin]

I can see Tampa Bay not scoring at all.

[Schmidty]

I keep glancing at this thread title and seeing "Jumblings (Jugs - Tits)". Seriously.

[Desnudo]

Most people and places are supporting the Jags and the points with NE winning. At least that's the majority of opinion I've heard.

Myself I would agree. Jags will give a good effort. I'd expect a close game and NE win too.

You know, that seems the logical choice, but the spread is 7.5 for a reason. If everyone is thinking the Jags will cover, I'd definitely take the Pats. My "shoe-in" of the week is the Bengals.

[sterlingice]

I keep glancing at this thread title and seeing "Jumblings (Jugs - Tits)". Seriously.Get this man 30cc's of the sex, stat. :D

SI

[jeff061]

I think I'm one of 5 people in New England expecting a close game.

The Jags are very similiar to the Pats during their first two super bowl seasons, as far as playing up or down to their competition. I never really got why everyone gives them so much crap. So they had an easy schedule, they can only beat who they play.

[Schmidty]

Get this man 30cc's of the sex, stat. :D

SI

Paging Mrs. Schmidty. ;)

[Desnudo]

I think I'm one of 5 people in New England expecting a close game.

The Jags are very similiar to the Pats during their first two super bowl seasons, as far as playing up or down to their competition. I never really got why everyone gives them so much crap. So they had an easy schedule, they can only beat who they play.

I think there are several reasons why the line is so high:

Partly Cloudy
High: 33°
Low: 25°

Not cold for Boston, but Brady is infinity-0 in games below 35 degrees, or something like that. Southern teams in the cold, etc..

Leftwich is coming back from an injury. Fred Taylor is banged up. You can only beat who you play, but realistically the Jaguars' record flatters them and is probably not an honest indication of their talent level. If you only beat the 49ers 10-9 in a must win game scenario, something is up.

I'm not overconfident about the Patriots chances, but I do think the Jaguars have a lot of work on if they want to pull this one out.

[st.cronin]

Ok, is it me or does the over look extremely appealing for the Tampa/Washington game?

It's at 37.5 right now.
These teams combined for 71 points in week 10.
Washington game totals since then: 29, 40, 33, 30, 42, 55, 51
Tampa game totals since then: 57, 23, 13, 30 , 28 51, 40

Tampa home game point totals this year: 22, 30, 40, 48, 71, 23, 51, 40


I'm considering betting that over on it's own, or teasing it with Washington +3... (I think I feel pretty good about Washington losing by less than 9 or less and at least 31 points being scored).

I hope you reconsidered.

[cthomer5000]

I hope you reconsidered.
I lost some money. All I needed was another 4 points out of that game... quite a long stretch of no-scoring to end that freakin game.

[Nwobhm]

I've been considering a NE/Cincy teaser bet. That would make it NE -1.5 and CIN +9.. I might chicken out here though

edit: ok.. i did it.. at least i'll have something to root for this weekend

[st.cronin]

I've been considering a NE/Cincy teaser bet. That would make it NE -1.5 and CIN +9.. I might chicken out here though

I gave up on teasers a looooooooong time ago, but that does seem like a fairly safe one.

[bryce]

i'm going with jax+7.5 -105, albeit reluctantly.

[cthomer5000]

Well, New England made me my money back tonight at least.

[lynchjm24]

I was lucky enough to have New England and Washington tonight.

Since I'm going to the Giants game tomorrow, I pretty much had to drop everything on the Giants -3. At least they are at +110 on that so it brings back a nicer amount.

[cthomer5000]

Thank you Carolina. 2-for-3 after that one. Now lets go Steelers.

[jeff061]

I think the game's just been clinched.

[cthomer5000]

I think the game's just been clinched.
More life left in Jon Kitna than most of us expected...

[gottimd]

Since I'm going to the Giants game tomorrow, I pretty much had to drop everything on the Giants -3. At least they are at +110 on that so it brings back a nicer amount.
Ouch, I hope someone talked you out of that. Unless you bought 27.5 points.

[cthomer5000]

Whew... the last 10 minutes were mighty dramatic for me as 5 more points would have cost me my bet. 3-for-4 this weekend... not too shabby. I like 3 games next week, and won't touch the NE-DEN game.