In Your Lifetime

[Swaggs]

This could be a deep thread about life, but instead it will be about sports.

The question is, "In your liftetime, how confident are you that your sports team(s) will win it all?"

So, list your favorite sports teams and how likely you think it is that, from this point forward, the chances are of you seeing your team win a championship.

Age: 28

Teams:

Pittsburgh Steelers -- I'd say chances are really good. They are continually competitive and have come close recently. In fact, they have a reasonable shot this season. I would say better than a 80% chance.

WVU Mountaineers (football) -- I would say there is a reasonable chance. We have played for a shot twice in my memory and our new head coach has me optimistic. Still probably less than a 25% chance.

Pittsburgh Pirates -- They won the World Series when I was two and had one of the better teams in baseball in the early 90s. I am a bit torn here, because it feels impossible right now, but then I see teams like Florida and the Chicago White Sox jump up, get hot, and win it all. Still, with baseball's unbalanced economy, I am not optimistic. Less than 5%.

WVU Mountaineers (basketball) -- Before last season's run to the Elite 8 (and only an overtime loss kept us from the Final 4), I would have put their chances there with the Pirates. Now, I am a little more confident. Somewhere around a 10% chance.

Pittsburgh Penguins -- With the NHL in a socialist-type situation right now, the odds are pretty good. I'd put them at around 65%.

[Johnny93g]

I'm 25, and ive seen the Jays win 2 world series. Ive seen my Hoosiers play for a championship, and that is it.

Leafs- need i say more....30%

Dolphins- pretty good, im very confident in Nick Saban, and i think we will win a super bowl within 3 years. 75%

Hoosiers- I think we have an excellent chance this season, and am confident in 1 title in the next decade. Mike Davis has given me alot of hope with the kids he's recruiting. 50%

Blue Jays- Depends on what direction baseball finances take. If the next lockout/strike results in a salary cap, i like our chances. Im confident in reaching the playoffs this season, and i guess anything can happen there. 25%

Raptors- If Rob Babcock makes more moves like drafting Charlie V, and trading for Mike James, then ill say 30%, if he trades for more Hoffa Aroujo's, then 1%

Notre Dame- Charlie Weiss has my confidence soaring. 95%

[Honolulu_Blue]

Age: 31

Teams:

Detroit Red Wings -- I'd say chances are really good even with the salary cap. They are continually competitive and have enjoyed recent success. While many of the great players who comprised the core of the Cup winning teams are getting long in the tooth (Yzerman, Shanahan, Lidstrom, etc.), the Wings have a bright future with Datsyuk and Zetterberg, are well run, and Detroit remains a desirable place for hockey players to play. In fact, they have a reasonable shot this season. I would say better than a 60% chance.

Detroit Lions -- They have won one playoff game in 50 years. One. They have been the worst team in the league bar none since Millen took over. Millen is still in charge and the Fords don't seem inclined to fire him. They have an intriguing, but unproven new head coach. They have many holes to fill. There has been no sign of improvement or forward progress for years. Less than 5%.

UM Wolverines (football) -- Michigan has had a successful college football program for decades. They will continue to have one. Despite recent "failures", odds are that Michigan will be able to put together a great team at some point. The program is too elite not to have a reasonable shot. Right around 50%.

Detroit Pistons -- The Pistons have been one of the NBA's best teams the last few years. They have a great core of players. Dumars is very good as a GM/team president, the Darko pick aside. They won the Championship two years ago, came within one game last year, and are currently the best team in the NBA. I would say around a 75% chance.

Detroit Tigers -- They improved last year, but that wasn't hard to do as there was nowhere to go but up. I don't follow baseball too closely, but Illitch seems willing to spend money on the team. Not Red Sox/Yankees money, but he wants them to be competitive. I don't think they will be any time soon, but with Illitch as the owner, I think it could happen. I would say around 25%.

[Vince]

I'm 24.

San Francisco Giants -- No comment.

San Francisco 49ers -- I've already seen them win 4 (I was alive for the 5th, but I was like 6 months old), so they don't really NEED to do any more. But I'd sure like them to. Right now, things are looking really bad...but it's hard to believe that they won't win another one in the 40+ years that I have left in my life. Near future? Hell no.

Golden State Warriors -- Well...I think they're the 4th best team in the West this year (San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix), but they keep not playing up to that potential. It's a stretch to say this about a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in 11 years, but I think we've got a legit shot at a championship for the next 3-4 years.

San Jose Sharks -- Ugh...the Strike has completely removed my knowledge of the team. I love Thornton, but I know very little about the rest of the squad. Pre-strike, we were one of the top 4 teams in the league. Now? I think we've got a few years at least before we're considered elite again.

[flere-imsaho]

Age: 32

New England Patriots: Yep, I'm happy here. :)

Oxford United: Win it all? If they're ever a serious contender in the Premiership or one of the Cup competitions, I'll be amazed.

[Johnny93g]

This could be a deep thread about life, but instead it will be about sports.

The question is, "In your liftetime, how confident are you that your sports team(s) will win it all?"

So, list your favorite sports teams and how likely you think it is that, from this point forward, the chances are of you seeing your team win a championship.

Age: 28

Teams:

Pittsburgh Steelers -- I'd say chances are really good. They are continually competitive and have come close recently. In fact, they have a reasonable shot this season. I would say better than a 80% chance.

WVU Mountaineers (football) -- I would say there is a reasonable chance. We have played for a shot twice in my memory and our new head coach has me optimistic. Still probably less than a 25% chance.

Pittsburgh Pirates -- They won the World Series when I was two and had one of the better teams in baseball in the early 90s. I am a bit torn here, because it feels impossible right now, but then I see teams like Florida and the Chicago White Sox jump up, get hot, and win it all. Still, with baseball's unbalanced economy, I am not optimistic. Less than 5%.

WVU Mountaineers (basketball) -- Before last season's run to the Elite 8 (and only an overtime loss kept us from the Final 4), I would have put their chances there with the Pirates. Now, I am a little more confident. Somewhere around a 10% chance.

Pittsburgh Penguins -- With the NHL in a socialist-type situation right now, the odds are pretty good. I'd put them at around 65%.

Id say your best chance is the Steelers this season. Id pick them for the super bowl at this point. If Crosby/Malkin/Kessel gel, then a string of cups could follow, but would you care if they arent in pittsburgh?

[Butter]

Cincinnati Bengals - 25-50%... we have a solid foundation, but we could experience '81 and '88 all over again, being a dominant team but only getting to the big game once every so often and then failing to come up big in the final game.

Cincinnati Reds - 15-40%... the Reds have won 3 World titles in the past 30 years, but haven't made the playoffs in 10 years. They are getting new ownership this offseason, but if I had to guess I think they'll win the World Series again someday, but not within the next 10-15 years.

Ohio State football - 85%+... They are the frontrunners for next season (though with all the defensive losses, I am at a loss as to why), and seemed to finally have turned the corner from perennial disappointment to perennial top-10 team.

Ohio St. basketball - 5%... they have a hell of a class coming next year, but I see them as a team that could become an every so often Final 4 team, but probably not a national power on the order of Duke or UConn or even Illinois.

Univ. of Dayton basketball (my alma mater) - 0%... A Sweet 16 run is not beyond the realm in my lifetime, but they haven't even been able to win a 1st round NCAA game since the late 80's.

[Toddzilla]

Age 36

Football: Miami Dolphins. In the next 40 years I'm sure the Dolphins can put it together enough to win it all. Maybe a few times. Confidence: 100%

College Football: Virginia Tech. The whims of college football are so up and down, it's tough to say. I've got to believe that - long term - Blacksburg's location will work against the school maintaining its current level of success. But, we saw what one good player can do in 1999. Confidence: 5%

Basketball and Hockey: couldn't care less

College Basketball: Virginia Tech. In the ACC? Forget it. Confidence: 0%

Baseball: Chicago Cubs. My favorite team in any sport. I live and die with the Cubbies, and I have no doubt that they will never ever win the World Series in Wrigley Field. As long as Wrigley exists, the owners of the team will never have any incentive to put a great team on the field as they will always make money on the clowns who go to the games no matter what simply to chat on their cell phones, drink a few beers, and leave in the 7th inning. Maybe in 20 years Wrigley gets condemned and they build a new stadium where making money requires a winning team. Still, they're the Cubs. Confidence: 0% Confidence in a new stadium: 1%

[Tigercat]

Age 25

LSU
(Football) I would bet on at least one or two more in my lifetime, if not more 96%
(Basketball) Not until John Brady can recruit PGs, but Louisiana does have the talent if we ever get the right coach... 7%

New Orleans Saints - Not likely 5%

Los Angeles Saints - Slightly more likely 6%

New Orleans Hornets - Possible, if Byron Scott continues to get them to improve like they did before this season 12%

Oklahoma City Hornets - Good grief.

[Maple Leafs]

I'll say 70%.

I'm only 30, so I should have another 40-50 years. Plus, if I'm on my deathbed and they haven't won yet, I'll hang on just to see it. Even if the drought gets to 100 years, I should still be around to see it end. Maybe.

OK, maybe 60%.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Pittsburgh Steelers - This is such a solid franchise that I think they will continue to be competitive throughout my life. I'd say the chances of them winning a Super Bowl in my life at 95%.

Pittsburgh Pirates - They have some good young players, but they lack the financial resources to get over the top. One of two things needs to happen in order for the Pirates to win a World Series: A) a salary cap, or B) a Russian oil tycoon needs to buy the team. Unfortunately, I don't see either of these happening. I give them a 0% chance.

Pittsburgh Penguins - Another team will good young players. Crosby is going to be great, Fleury has all the makings of a great keeper, and whenever Evgeni Malkin comes over from Russia (maybe bringing that oil tycoon with him?) he'll be a star. Of course, this team could be playing in Kansas City in a couple of years, and if that happens it will be hard to cheer for them. I give them a 75% chance.

Penn State (football) - How long can JoePa coach? Who's going to replace him? Will we ever get a playoff in college football? If we're stuck with the BCS, then Penn State will never win a MNC no matter who replaces JoePa. If the BCS is gone, then we have a chance. Alas, I have no faith in college presidents doing the right thing, so 0% chance for Penn State.

[Lathum]

I'm 30

NY Mets- Even though they haven't one since 1986 the way the economics of baseball work only a handfull of teams can win consistinatly. Even though they seem to stumble over themselves every year sooner or later they will get it right. 95%

NY Giants- Eli is progressing nicely but there are some key players that age is catching up with ( Tiki, Strahan) Even though they need some work they have a bright future. 70%

NJ Devils-As long as they have Brodeur they have a chance. A healthy Elias and a return to form from Gomez would help. They need some work on the blueline but if they make the playoffs ( and everyone in the NHL does ) no one wants to play them. 50%


NJ Nets- No one wants to play there. Kidd is getting old, Jefferson is injury prone and Carter is one dimentional. Combine that with ZERO post prescence they have no chance. The gap in the NBA from the best teams ( Pistons, Spurs ) is so large that no one else stands a chance. 5%

[Swaggs]

Id say your best chance is the Steelers this season. Id pick them for the super bowl at this point. If Crosby/Malkin/Kessel gel, then a string of cups could follow, but would you care if they arent in pittsburgh?

Good question. Of all the teams I listed, I am least interested in the Pens. That wasn't always the case. When I was in Jr. High and they were winning (and contending for) Cups with Lemieux, Jagr, Tocchet, Francis, etc., they were up near the top for me. But since then, with the bad string of owners and financial bumbles, the de-offensing of the NHL, and then seeing all of my favorite players leave due to money, the NHL has lost my interest. If the game rebounds well, I could see that change and I would still follow the Pens, as long as they kept some of their identity (ie: colors, name, honor the legends). Right now, since I rarely see them on TV (I live outside their viewing region now), it will be tough unless one of the networks reallyl starts covering the NHL again.

[Desnudo]

Age 32

Patriots - As long as the current ownership, coach, and QB are in place I'm confident in their ability to produce winning seasons. 99% (100% if they buy some gloves with stick em' next season)

Red Sox - After finally winning one, they appear to be resorting to the old Red Sox of too much money and too little brainpower in management. If they institute a salary cap, the Sox' stream of bad financial decisions will be exposed. However, they have David Ortiz who I'm confident will still be jacking them over the Monster when he's 80. (25%)

Bruins - Everyone in Boston used to love this team. Bourque, Neely, Oates. Now it's a team filled with nobodies playing in a league no one cares about anymore. As long as Jeremy Jacobs owns the team they will never win. (0%)

Celtics - See above (0% unless they clone Larry Bird)

[Klinglerware]

Age: 31

Teams:

Brown Bears (football) -- Won the conference championship this year, the program has turned the corner and is attracting good recruits. However, since the Ivy presidents refuse to allow post-season participation (and another reason why the 1-AA playoff system is perilously close to being a sham), a 1-aa national championship will be impossible for the forseeable future (0%).

Hawaii (Rainbow) Warriors (football) -- Unless Hawaii can overcome a weak recruiting base and the rigors of long-distance travel that result in horrendous road win percentages, this mid-major doesn't have much of a chance (0%).

As far as baseball goes, I'm now more loyal to my fantasy team than the teams I've rooted for in the past. Pretty sad, I know...

[Eaglesfan27]

Age 31:

Focusing only on future championships:

Eagles - I think there is an 90% chance since I think McNabb wins at least 1 Super Bowl in Philly before he retires.

Phillies - Management is trying to build a contender, but they have made some bad choices. Still I think there is a 70% chance that we will win it all in my lifetime.


Sixers - I think they are the furthest away, despite Iverson's continued top notch play. The NBA salary cap means that they are going to have to add great players through the draft which is unlikely where they will usually pick. Therefore, I think they will be a solid but not great team for the next 5 to 10 years. 30% chance.


Flyers - They have been on the brink several times in past years. I think they have a good chance of finally pushing over that hump sometime in the next few years. 60% chance.

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm surprised at the 0 percent answers considering the time length of the question involved and the fact that many teams manage to win it all within 25 to 30 years.

[vtbub]

I did, and it was fannn-tastic.

[ISiddiqui]

Age 25:

New Jersey Devils - They started the year off HORRIBLE, but since Elias has come back have been on fire, winning 7 in a row. With Brodeur in net and Elias-Gomez-Gionta line working well together, we can make a nice playoff run. And I have faith in Lou to add pieces that can work in the future - 50%

Atlanta Falcons - Vick is improving, the running game is great. The defense took a BIG step back. But McKay built the Tampa defense and I'm sure he can do something there - 25%

New York Mets - Well, a solid team last year got some new shiny toys. It seems to be a yearly thing. The shiny toys get all rusty by the end of the year. But these are quite nice. However, I'm not happy with Cameron being dealt away, especially if Beltran never lives up to the promise he's shown. The Piazza era ends, so the defense will improve. Let's see how the pitchers end up doing. Seems like the Mets have a lot of money to play with, lets hope it works - 40%

Rutgers College Football - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA - 0%

Newcastle United Football Club - Well, it seems we have idiots in the front office. Owen, Parker, and Emre were decent signings, but the back line looks like a Coca-Cola Championship squad... a low level Championship squad. And with Chelsea, ManU, Arsenal, etc spending smarter, I think NUFC is far closer to relegation than the Premiership title (then again, so is the team that finishes 5th in the league) - 5%

[sterlingice]

I'm surprised at the 0 percent answers considering the time length of the question involved and the fact that many teams manage to win it all within 25 to 30 years.Exactly. All the answers like "so-and-so are getting old" just means you'll have a new generation of players and no idea how they will do. Longer term factors are stuff like ownership, stadium, and salary cap- that matters much more.

It's like a Chicago Bulls fan in 1982 talking about how their glory days of making the playoffs were over as they only had 2 playoff appearances in 7 years and how Artis Glimore was getting old and Reggie Theus is pretty good but not good enough to win a title.

Or Yankees fans in 1992 bitching about how the team is awful and the core of, I dunno, Don Mattingly, Matt Nokes, and Danny Tartabull is getting old. And how they'll never have any good years ever again.

Cowboys in 1988, etc...

I guess I can see the Crosby hockey things as you hope he'll be with your team for 20 years and that's a solid foundation. Or someone of a Lebron James or Felix Hernandez ilk- where you think it's a future superstar your team can build upon and keep.

SI

[Honolulu_Blue]

I'm surprised at the 0 percent answers considering the time length of the question involved and the fact that many teams manage to win it all within 25 to 30 years.
I think 0 percent for pro teams is surprising, but I think that they could be reasonable for college teams. I would be very comfortable in agreeing that Hawaii has a 0% chance of winning a national title in college football in, say, the next 30-40 years. There are, in fact, quite a few college teams I would be comfortable saying that about.

[TazFTW]

Age: 24

Dallas Cowboys: I've seen them win 3 Super Bowls. Chance of winning another one in my lifetime, 90%.

Atlanta Braves: I've seen them win 1 World Series. Chance of winning another one: Under current ownership, 35%. New ownership with cash to spend, 70%.

Phoenix Suns: F U John Paxton! I'll probably say 45%. The Western Conference is tough to get out of and it doesn't look like that will change.

NY Rangers: I've seen them win 1 Stanley Cup although that was the season I became a Ranger fan (the only time I've gone to a hockey game). It was looking pretty dismal that they would win another one. Complete rebuild and the rule changes have them heading back in the right direction. 65%.

Hawaii Warrior football: 1% of winning the national championship. Winning the conference championship outright, 95% (subject to change if Hawaii leaves the WAC).

[PackerFanatic]

I am 20.

Green Bay Packers - Seen them do it once already and almost repeat, I think the odds of them doing it again have been decreasing recently, but I think their is around a 60 to 70% chance I will see it again...I hope :)

Wisconsin Badgers (basketball and football) - Both programs have been steadily decent for a few years now, but I don't think they have that great of a chance of a national title (although I would love to see it) Probably about 15 to 20% for both.

Milwaukee Bucks - I don't watch much b-ball, so I don't know if I can make that educated of a guess here...maybe 25%...

Milwaukee Brewers - Again, don't watch much baseball, I do know the Brewers are finally MAYBE starting to turn around...but they are less likely than the Bucks to win it all IMO...15%

[hoopsguy]

Age: 33, so I figure I've got 50+ years to work with ...

Cubs - not 0%, despite past history. The payroll is competitive and the talent level over the past few years has been upper 1/3. I honestly don't think they are terribly far away at this moment, although the health of the young arms will determine if they have already missed their window or if they have another 3-7 years to compete with the core of this pitching staff. I'll put them at 50% for my lifetime.

Illini - basketball I feel pretty good about, even though they have not ever won a title. I'll put the number at 75%, based upon having a good home state for recruiting and a strong string of performances once they began to move away from the Deon Thomas sanctions. Football? Much less confident. I'll put the number at 15% and I think I'm being generous. The Big Ten is a rough conference and the program has not been able to perform at a consistenly high level for even a five year period in my lifetime.

Bulls - I don't think the current nucleus is very close to contending for a title, although that may change with a pair of lottery picks next year. I'll put them at 50% to win another title in my lifetime. Pro hoops seems to be more dynasty-driven than any of the other major sports; I think it is largely because of the smaller rosters and the magnified impact of 1-2 great players. So I think there will be fewer teams winning titles over 50 years in pro hoops than in pro football, to pick one other sport for a comparison.

Dolphins - now that the stench of Wannie is off the team I have confidence in these guys again. This year was a lot of fun rooting for them, as they seemed to get better throughout the year. Again, referencing the point I made with the Bulls I think that a good number of teams will win titles in 50 years and the Dolphins should land one. 80%.

[Radii]

Age 28:

I'm suprised at how few 100%'s we're seeing here, I will throw one out there:

North Carolina (College basketball) - I have 100% confidence that we will see another UNC basketball championship in my lifetime. Hell, I expect 4 or 5 more in my lifetime minimum.


Carolina Panthers (NFL) - The rest of my lifetime will hopefully be more than 40 years, so I'll see more super bowls than have been played so far in NFL history. Even if they don't get one with the current team in the next few years, I'm confidant they'll win one in thenext 40+... 80%

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (college football) - I'm really not a huge fan, but they are my favorite college team. They could build up as the ACC grows in strength and have a shot, I'll give them 20%

Chicago Cubs(MLB) - hah. 2%. Oddly enough, 2% is the same chance I give of the apocalypse occuring in my lifetime!

I don't really root for anyone in the NBA.

[AlexB]

Miami Dolphins - 99%: well supported franchise, good weather & location: players will always want to play in Miami. Not sure about the 'within 3 years' posted above, but 99% sure they will win one in my lifetime.

Leicester City - 1%. Not happening unless we find a hitherto unknown multi-billionaire benefactor comes to the fore. Hell we're struggling to stay in the Championship (2nd tier of English football) this year :(

Leicester Tigers (rugby) - 99%. We've done it before, we'll do it again. The best supported club in English rugby, who although we've been caught up by others, are likely to always be at or near the top of English & European rugby. Plus twice this year we've been crap for entire games, and then scored wonder tries in the last seconds to steal wins! Always good if you can get wins on those days when you play like an under 12's side...

Two outta three ain't bad

[Klinglerware]

I think 0 percent for pro teams is surprising, but I think that they could be reasonable for college teams. I would be very comfortable in agreeing that Hawaii has a 0% chance of winning a national title in college football in, say, the next 30-40 years. There are, in fact, quite a few college teams I would be comfortable saying that about.

Exactly. Pro team percentages should really be closer to 100 than 0, as the talent levels between teams are very close (even when comparing good teams to bad teams), and there is a system in place (in most pro sports except soccer) to assist poor teams in making up ground.

College is a whole other ballgame since (in College Football, especially) the talent levels are more dissimilar and the great teams tend to hold on to their positions (e.g., USC, Texas, ND, et al could just as easily be talked about as premier programs in 1966 as they are in 2006). The system is really stacked against the have nots.

[Tigercat]

Age 28:

I'm suprised at how few 100%'s we're seeing here, I will throw one out there:

North Carolina (College basketball) - I have 100% confidence that we will see another UNC basketball championship in my lifetime. Hell, I expect 4 or 5 more in my lifetime minimum.

100% is a big un to put out there, even if you are damn sure your team will win multiple ones in your lifetime.

If you are 100% sure that means you are so confident you would be willing to bet(if one were inclined to wager) everything you own that it will happen even if only to win an extra few hundred dollars, because there is absolutely no way it won't happen in your own mind.

[Eaglesfan27]

I think 0 percent for pro teams is surprising, but I think that they could be reasonable for college teams. I would be very comfortable in agreeing that Hawaii has a 0% chance of winning a national title in college football in, say, the next 30-40 years. There are, in fact, quite a few college teams I would be comfortable saying that about.
I concur that for some college teams it is not as unreasonable.

[Radii]

100% is a big un to put out there, even if you are damn sure your team will win multiple ones in your lifetime.

If you are 100% sure that means you are so confident you would be willing to bet(if one were inclined to wager) everything you own that it will happen even if only to win an extra few hundred dollars, because there is absolutely no way it won't happen in your own mind.


Sort of. I would bet my entire poker bankroll on UNC winning in my lifetime. Except for the fact that if they don't win for 20 years I could still win the bet but it wasn't worth it b/c of what I could have done with the money, etc.

But I do think its about a sure a bet in sports as one could make when talking about winning championships. Not *the* most certain bet, but up there as far as major sports go. Brazil winning the world cup once in the next 40 years, that's probably the best possible bet there is, but I'd put UNC winning another basketball title within my lifetime pretty high up on the list.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Age: 29

New Jersey Devils (NHL) - I'll say about 80% here. I thought that the Devils were going to be dead this year without Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer. They still have some improvements to make at defense, but they're winning now. If they can be a great team this year after their horrid start, I think they're certainly capable of winning another Stanley Cup in the next few decades.

St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) - I want to say 90%. I really do. I'm going to say only 75%, though. I no longer have any faith in this team winning when they need to. I do figure that they'll eventually run into some American League team that's just gotten lucky to reach the World Series, and that might be St. Louis' year.

Denver Broncos (NFL) - Even with the way this year has gone, I'm only at 80% on this one. At least for the next few years, it looks like the AFC is going to be much more competitive than the NFC. It's hard to imagine things falling into place for the Broncos like they have this year. Maybe if they had a legendary player on the team, I'd feel more confident, but right now? I'm not so sure.

Memphis Grizzlies (NBA) - Gah. I guess 30%. The Grizzlies aren't terrible, but I think Jerry West has just plain lost his mind. No, he won't be around forever, but the top teams in the Western Conference could stay that way for years to come. I don't see Memphis overtaking any of them anytime soon.

New Orleans Privateers (NCAA basketball) - Absolutely 0%.

New Orleans Privateers (NCAA baseball) - I think 5%. UNO was the first Louisiana team to reach the College World Series, and they contend for their conference title regularly. It would have to be one of those dream situations in which everything works out for them, but I think it could happen, even if they are maybe the fourth-best team in the state.

Tulane Green Wave (NCAA football) - I can't say 0%. I mean, I know they're in Conference USA, and they're not a very good team right now, but they went undefeated just a few years ago. It could happen again someday, and who knows how postseason play will work in Division I in 30 or 40 years? The chance could come up for the Wave, so I'll say 2%.

Memphis Tigers (NCAA football) - This team has been turned around for the past few years, but they're not in a much better situation than Tulane, as far as winning a championship is concerned. Still, they'll have an easier time recruiting than Tulane will, so I'll go with 5%.

Memphis Tigers (NCAA basketball) - I say 40% that it could happen in the next 10 years, 60% in my lifetime. They're a strong program, and with many of the top teams of the old Conference USA leaving, the Tigers should be locks for the NCAA tournament just about every year. They'd need some luck to win the championship, but that applies to pretty much everybody when March madness comes around.

New Orleans VooDoo (Arena Football) - If they return next year as planned, I'd say 25%. Everybody has a shot to win the ArenaBowl. They're not going to win in next year, but in my lifetime? I guess that just depends on how long the team is in existence.

[JAG]

Looks like SI picked my brain.

I'm 31.

Dallas Cowboys: 90%

Outlook for the next 10 years: Pretty decent overall. Some good building blocks are in place, there's reason to think they could take a title in the near future with some good decisions.

Outlook for 10-30+ years: Also very strong, probably even better than the present. A new stadium in Arlington will bring in a boatload of revenue, the Jones' family should provide stable leadership, and there's every reason to believe that things will be even better managed when Stephen Jones, who's been groomed for the past 15+ years, takes over ownership from his father. I would be surprised if all those things did not produce a championship in the next 20-30 years (and I hope to be around longer than that too).


US Men's soccer team: 15%

Outlook for the next 10 years: A good bit below average. The US men's soccer team has made strides, but no one's realistically calling them a World Cup contender this year, and almost certainly not for 2010 either.

Outlook for the next 10-30+ years: Much better odds than the present. The US is developing players much better than they did previously, although there's still uncertainty surrounding the future of the MLS. I wouldn't say interest in the sport is on a dramatic uprise, but I think it's possible that interest will grow which could attract stronger athletes. Then again, it might not and it's unlikely interest will ever rival that of the rest of the world.

[vtbub]

I'm 34..

The Habs, Red Sox and Celtics have all won championships. If I live to be 68, I see them win more.

Same with Michigan football and (North) Carolina basketball.

[sterlingice]

Pumpy, I just gotta ask. How did you arrive at New Jersey, St Louis, Denver, and Memphis (formerly Vancouver)??

SI

[Terps]

I'm 24.

Baltimore Orioles - I'll give a 10% chance. Once Angelos sells the team it will go up.

New York Giants - 80%

Washington Wizards - 5%

Washington Capitals - 5%

Maryland Football - 5%

Maryland Basketball - 70%

[Schmidty]

Pistons - Have won 3 in my lifetime, and are likely to win many more.

Red Wings - Have won 3 in my lifetime, and are likely to win many more.

Tigers - Have won one in my lifetime, and there's a slim chance they'll win more if Ilitch sells the team and they fire Dumb-browski.

Lions - No titles, 1 playoff win in my lifetime. The Lions winning a championship would be........the greatest sports story of my life, but they're cursed and will probably never win.

Michigan State (basketball) - Have won 2 in my lifetime, and have been to the Final 4 quite often. I thik there's a great chance that they'll win another one, and soon.

Michigan State (football) - This sums it up: :(

[Maple Leafs]

The Habs, Red Sox and Celtics have all won championships.
Who are some of your other favorites? The Harlem Globetrotters? The mid-80's Hulk Hogan? Whoever I'm playing heads up in poker?

[Pumpy Tudors]

I would love to hang out with Maple Leafs just to hear the comedy. He cracks me up. He should bring Mrs. Leafs along, too.

[vtbub]

Who are some of your other favorites? The Harlem Globetrotters? The mid-80's Hulk Hogan? Whoever I'm playing heads up in poker?Those Red Sox have been a veritable dynasty since....

[Maple Leafs]

Those Red Sox have been a veritable dynasty since....
I'm a Leafs fan. One title in 40 years counts as a dynasty.

[vtbub]

I'm a Leafs fan. One title in 40 years counts as a dynasty.
Ming?

[tarcone]

age- 38

St louis cardinals--- very good, own the NL central right now and have a great GM and an above avg manager

Iowa Football- if not in the next 3 or 4 seasons, before farentz leaves i doubt ever

Iowa Basketball--- no chance

Denver Broncos-- excellent. this is the year

[RPI-Fan]

The one that really matters for me is the first one:

1) RPI Hockey -- 1% -- There are over 50 teams, and RPI has been in the top half maybe twice in the past 15 years. We are simply, as a program, such a long way from the top right now. One postive: We have a phenomenal President who, while not a big sports person per-se, has a desire for RPI to be the best at everything they do. Since athletics isn't going away, she wants us to do well at it.

2) New York Islanders -- 20% -- Salary Cap NHL could provide opportunity, but the Island simply is trending away from being a good place for hockey.

3) Houston Astros -- 50% -- Good town, could definitely put together a run like last year's, and finish it off.

4) Houston Texans -- 40% -- See above.

5) Crystal Palace (soccer) -- (1/infinity) -- Too much of a gap b/w the top teams, and not top teams.

[ISiddiqui]

You are giving Palace THAT good odds?! ;)

[cthomer5000]

Rutgers (football) - 5%. Things are clearly on the rise, and they play in what is (for now) a major conference. They should be beefing up the schedule in future years (signed a long-term deal with Notre Dam recently). No way this is happening in the next 5-6 years, but who knows down the road.


New York Jets - 80%. I'm just playing the long-term odds here, as I think there is very little hope in the present. The QB situation is a disaster, they may have 2-3 bad contracts they'll need to shake off, and I still don't feel comfortable with the GM situation. Still, the franchise is as stable as possible, so at least they will be in East Rutherford until the end of time.

[Dutch]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - All I can say is thank god for free agency and salary caps or this would have been impossibly hopeless. They already won the big prize, but after 13 seasons of absolutely sub-par piss poor performance, I must tell you that if you haven't experienced a game like I did when the Buccaneers went to Philadelphia (winning that game is more memorable to me than the Super Bowl was) as underdogs and beat them late in the game at the Vet...

...well...

When your team finally reaches the pinnacle, you are going to celebrate like you never have before. It's a great feeling that only the die-hards of sports teams will ever really, truly enjoy.

Good luck to all die-hard fans who have not won the big one.

[sterlingice]

You are giving Palace THAT good odds?! ;)It's close to zero but not quite zero ;)

SI

[Wolfpack]

Age: 30

NC State basketball--Only team I currently root for that has actually won within my memory (1983). I feel quite certain that State should win one title in the next 50 years, but I have no idea when. 1983 was lightning in a bottle and 1974 was done during the old days when only conference champs made it, not the more wide-open, upset-prone tournament it is today. Call it 90% over the next 50 years.

NC State football--has never won a MNC and hasn't won the ACC since 1979. With the ACC much more rugged now than ever, it's hard to believe it will happen. Still, it only takes one year and we nearly had it three years ago. It's a much longer shot unless a playoff is instituted, though. 10%.

Carolina Panthers football--Heck, this might happen this year. Even so, if the current organization continues to draft and perform well, I think this is a pretty certain possibility within my lifetime. 95%. (However, if the CBA implodes and the salary cap is lost, all bets are off.)

Charlotte Bobcats basketball--Too early to tell right now. However, if cues are to be drawn from the histories of the last several expansion franchises, it could be a while. None of the teams that have joined the NBA since 1980 have won the title yet. Still, if the cap remains, I think they'll get one somewhere. 75%.

Carolina Hurricanes hockey--Before this year, I'd have said, "Never." If I could take this year alone, I'd say 60% (part of me still needs to be pinched to be sure I'm not dreaming). Over the next 50 years, I'd say, again, if the cap remains, they should get one, 80% (a little higher due to this year's performance). However, there's an equal chance they won't be in Raleigh in 50 years. They've got to start winning and winning consistently to build a sustainable fanbase if they're going to stay that long.

Colorado Rockies baseball--Back during the Blake Street Bomber days, I'd have thought they could eventually gotten a ring, but it's become a longer shot with each passing year. The grim reality is that it'll take a fluke season to do it because you need pitching to win in the postseason and every big-money pitcher that signs ends up getting murdered by the thin air at Coors Field. Still, a fluke is a fluke is a fluke. 10%.

[Arctus]

Age: 35

Philadelphia Eagles - 80% I think McNabb has one in him, and I think the Eagles has one of the best front offices in football

Philadelphia Phillies - 50% Large market and big (yet fickle) fan base.

Philadelphia Sixers - 5% I don't think they can win with Iverson at this point, and the post Iverson era will most likely start with an extended rebuilding effort. Front office hasn't impressed me.

Bucknell Bison Basketball - 0% Last year's upset of Kansas in the first round of the NCAA Tourney was more than I would have ever expected.

[IMetTrentGreen]

longhorns . . .
-football - high. 90%
-basketball - who knows. 70% seems high in that we've never done it before, but we got close with tj ford. you only need the one right guy, apparently, and texas puts out plenty
-baseball - is there anything higher than 100?

cowboys - i don't know, subtract arizona and new orleans, and they've got a 1 in 30 chance every year for as long as i live, and i hope to get through at least 50 more years. so if i dont get hit by a bus, 99%

rangers - ha. 1%

spurs - 99%

[Airhog]

Sooners Football: Im pretty confident in the next 10 years OU will win a national title. Even if they don't I am happy since they have already won 2 in my lifetime, and I watched one of those games

Sooner Basketball: Im just not sure if OU will ever get over the hump and win. Not even in the next 10 years. I would be happy just to see them play in a championship game.

[Pumpy Tudors]

rangers - ha. 1%

spurs - 99%Wow, I've been playing Worldwide Soccer Manager too much. It took me several seconds to figure out that you meant the Texas Rangers and San Antonio Spurs.

[Emiliano]

Cool thread. Let's see:

San Francisco 49ers: Mmm... Not really great chanches in the short period. I'd say we have to wait at least 2/3 years to see something. 5%.

Miami Hurricanes: Being an elite college football program, the Canes can contend almost every year. I follow college football only since 3/4 years, so I'm not a true expert, but I think that the next season could be a good one, better than the last. I'm hoping for an ACC title, at least. 50%.

Los Angeles Lakers: With Bryant playing "NBA Live", I don't see the Lakers as true contenders this season. They gotta bring in another true star player, a big man, to balance his ego and his personality (my dream is KG...), and obviously to raise the talent level. A playoff spot is a realistic goal. 20%.

[BuffaloHuskey]

I am 27

Buffalo Bills - I think we are just damned cursed, and honestly am not sure how long a team will stay in Buffalo once Ralph dies. I am sure many of you have seen the claymation commercial on ESPN spoofing the Bills, and it is probably a pretty close depiction of the reality of the Buffalo Bills. We do not have a good nucleus right now, even though I still like Losman. That being said I can't see us winning squat during this decade. I do have hope with the successes of other cursed franchises/cities in the recent years, so I will give the Bills a 30%

Buffalo Sabres - Well Hull's NO GOAL was B.S., and I think we should have won the Cup in '99 but what can you do. They have a solid nucleus and a low salary base. They are energetic and have great goal tending. I am feeling good about this squad, and give them a 30% chance of winning in the next five years and 60% chance of winning in my lifetime

UConn Huskies Men's Basketball - Yeah, I know it looks like I am a front runner, but I grew up outside Hartford before I moved to Buffalo, and since Buffalo has no major college sports, I remained a UConn fan. I can definately see them winning this year. I can't complain they have won two championships in the last six years, which somewhat makes up for the heartbreak of my Buffalo teams. I give them a 100% chance of winning another title in my lifetime.

San Francisco Giants - The first baseball game I ever went to was at the Stick when I was visiting my aunt. Wil Clark became my favorite player (he had a great game when I went to see him, and he is lefthanded like me) and I have rooted for the Giants ever since. I don't have much faith in this club, so I give them only a 10% chance of winning in my lifetime. They have given me a lot to cheer for over the last 18 years, so I can't complain too much.

I have no love for the NBA, and no college football rooting interest, although now that UConn is Div.1 I have been following them for the last few years. They have a long way to go (as with the rest of the Big East) before they have any shot at winning a title. I give them a 1% chance of winning it all. Connecticut is a basketball state, plain and simple.

[MrBug708]

Im 23 and I think that all my teams will win a NC. Some more likely then others

UCLA Basketball - 100% sure they will win one. And probably before I turn 30. Ben Howland is an excellent coach and the team is pretty sic right now.

UCLA football - They have the resources but probably not with Dorrell at the helm. Of course, I didnt see 10 wins in them this year either. I'd say it's about a 40% chance in my lifetime

Los Angeles Dodgers - I'd say it's about a 95% chance that they will win in my lifetime

Los Angeles Galaxy - I'd say it's probably 100% they win again

[bronconick]

I'm 25

Florida State football- 50%. Bowden's lost his touch, and who knows how long it'll take for the next decent coach to jump up. Even then, winning a NC isn't the easiest thing. (2 in 14 years that could have been 4-5) Recruiting base helps.

Detroit Pistons- 99% Seen 3, could easily see another one in the next few years, and it's one of two Detroit franchises who obviously care about success.

Detroit Lions- 25% That would be the "blind squirrel" in me. WCF can't outlive me, can he?

San Jose Sharks- 60% There's only room in hockey for a few snakebit franchises, and in theory, hockey should go a lot more toward the NFL model with their hard cap, making 10 year runs of dominance by any one team less likely and less dominating

Western Michigan football- 0% Only title they'd win is if the NCAA moves non BCS schools into 1-AA for some reason in my lifetime.

WMU basketball- .5% Only that high, because Gonzaga has proven that a smaller school from a non-major conference can become a consistant top 20 team in recent years. That would take a minor miracle, though.

WMU hockey- 2% They're in a "major" conference for hockey, at least, and in 2000, they were #5 for a week or two. A run or two is possible in my lifetime. I'd settle for winning a playoff series and playing defense right now.

[panerd]

NFL: Cincinnati Bengals. If Palmer returns healthy, 80%. If he doesn't the Bungles may return at which case I will go 5%

Baseball: Cardinals. Chance of returning to at least 5 World Series. 100% Chance of winning even one of those. 25%

NCAA Football: Mizzou 0%

NCAA Basketball: Mizzou 0%

NHL: Who cares?

Some of the previous posters are nuts with their NCAA predictions. If you want to know about a Mizzou final four or a trip to a big bowl. I am sure something will happen. But seeing the Mizzou has won neither in the past 100 years, I am not sure why much will change in the next 50.

[panerd]

WMU basketball- .5% Only that high, because Gonzaga has proven that a smaller school from a non-major conference can become a consistant top 20 team in recent years. That would take a minor miracle, though.
.

200-1? You should look at Vegas odds for some quality teams this year who are at 200-1 to win it all. I will book this bet in a heartbeat. You site Gonzaga as an example of winning the national championship? How many do they have? How many final fours do they have?

[bronconick]

200-1? You should look at Vegas odds for some quality teams this year who are at 200-1 to win it all. I will book this bet in a heartbeat. You site Gonzaga as an example of winning the national championship? How many do they have? How many final fours do they have?.5% is a small enough number to imply that it's extremely unlikely, but slightly more likely then college football as currently created.

Otherwise, how's this for a theory of such a high number-
I figure by 2040, the NBA development leagues will be in full swing, eliminating the edge major colleges have in basketball, and it will become a crapshoot.

[Karlifornia]

49ers-As has been said before, the NFL is so parity-driven that I would be supremely surprised if the Niners didn't win another one during my lifetime. I may have to wait until John York dies/retires. 65%

Warriors-I like Chris Mullin as a GM, and I think this team is a couple years from being a legitimate contender for the NBA crown. 65%

San Francisco Giants-It's either this year, or not for a long time. 30%

San Jose Sharks-Good team, good front office, good fan support. I'd say this team has the best chance of any to win a title 75%

Stanford football-Never gonna happen..Maybe 1 or 2 Rose Bowls, but no national title ever. 0%

Stanford basketball-If Mike Montgomery was still the coach, I'd say 65%, but I'm not so sure about Trent Johnson. They can still get good kids in there to play, though. I'll say 35%

[Swaggs]

Bump. I found this while searching for something else and thought it was pretty funny to read 4 1/2 years later. :)

There is a lot of gold here (from just the first three posts):



WVU Mountaineers (football) -- I would say there is a reasonable chance. We have played for a shot twice in my memory and our new head coach has me optimistic. Still probably less than a 25% chance.



Dolphins- pretty good, im very confident in Nick Saban, and i think we will win a super bowl within 3 years. 75%

Hoosiers- I think we have an excellent chance this season, and am confident in 1 title in the next decade. Mike Davis has given me alot of hope with the kids he's recruiting. 50%

Notre Dame- Charlie Weiss has my confidence soaring. 95%



Detroit Pistons -- The Pistons have been one of the NBA's best teams the last few years. They have a great core of players. Dumars is very good as a GM/team president, the Darko pick aside. They won the Championship two years ago, came within one game last year, and are currently the best team in the NBA. I would say around a 75% chance.



Also, we were all a lot younger 5-years ago. :(

[Galaril]

Red Sox-Check

Celtics-Check

Houston Oilers- 25% chance they win one eventually or move out of town if they don't .....................ahh what? they did ahh fuck!

Titans- As long as Bud Adams is living 5% and a direct descendant of his 15%. If a new ownership comes into Nashville and takes it serious maybe 30%. Lots if's with this group.

[Tigercat]

Age 25

LSU
(Football) I would bet on at least one or two more in my lifetime, if not more 96%


Only took a year past that to realize that 96%, so good call. Too bad it will probably be a great deal longer for the third.



New Orleans Saints - Not likely 5%

Los Angeles Saints - Slightly more likely 6%


Ye of little faith on two accounts. It was hard to be optimistic on the Saints winning or staying in New Orleans long term after the Katrina year of '05 though.

[Radii]

Age 28:

I'm suprised at how few 100%'s we're seeing here, I will throw one out there:

North Carolina (College basketball) - I have 100% confidence that we will see another UNC basketball championship in my lifetime. Hell, I expect 4 or 5 more in my lifetime minimum.


hooray!

[Marc Vaughan]

Age: 38

Team: Brighton and Hove Albion
We've a new ground on the way so that should all being well give us a bit of a boost and possibly take us as far as the Premiership, our location gives us a good catchment area for both fans and youngsters - so perhaps one day who knows, I'm an eternal optimist :D

[Neon_Chaos]

Age: 38

Team: Brighton and Hove Albion
We've a new ground on the way so that should all being well give us a bit of a boost and possibly take us as far as the Premiership, our location gives us a good catchment area for both fans and youngsters - so perhaps one day who knows, I'm an eternal optimist :D

One of my favorite teams in FM! :)

They are always my first team to play with every new version.

Took 'em to the top of the world once. A Treble, with the Premier Division Title, FA Cup, and League Cup.

[JediKooter]

Age: 38

San Diego Chargers - 15% Ownership is too scared to pay for talent that can win the Super Bowl. Historically, there's always, always, always been pieces of the puzzle missing. Dan Fouts era, they had no defense. Philip Rivers era, they have too soft of a defense. If the Chargers ever put a defense on the field like the Steelers to go along with a Philip Rivers led offense, then I'd say their chances get up into the 80 percent range and they won't have rely on a shell shocked kicker to win playoff games for them.

San Diego Padres - 3% This is a team (again, historically) that thinks signing players in their 40s that were super stars in their 20s and 30s will improve the team. No, it doesn't!! The Padres also have really never seen a need to keep a super star around for a long time (except for Tony Gwynn & Trevor Hoffman) and usually end up trading them right as the team is getting good. One fun game of mine that I play when the All-Star rosters are announced is to count how many FORMER Padres are on the there. Until an owner comes in there and is willing to buy a championship like the Red Sox or Yankees, I'm going to be like one of those 96 year old Cub fans waiting for them to win the World Series.

Celtics - 100% I saw them win in the 80s and they just won a couple of years ago. Barring any fire sales or major injuries, there should be at least 1 or 5 more in lifetime.

Clippers - 1% with a +/- of 5% depending on who owns them. What is there really to say? It's the Clippers.

[MIJB#19]

cowboys - i don't know, subtract arizona and new orleans, and they've got a 1 in 30 chance every year for as long as i live, and i hope to get through at least 50 more years. so if i dont get hit by a bus, 99%Good call!

[Senator]

That is hilarious. Typical IMTG.

[MrDNA]

This thread is a goldmine of amusement.