My QB's hideous performance (plus trivia)

[Saucy]

So my 6 years experience, 44-rated QB, with 62/80 accuracy and 38/53 avoiding ints, has put up the following performance over the first four games:

49 of 114, 437 yards, 2TD 9INTS for a rating of 26.8

Not to mention outright costing us two games by throwing 3 critical endzone ints.

Do you think

(a) my passing game is fatally flawed? (Protection isn't fantastic, and my receiving corps is average)

(b) There is some hidden attribute at work with my QB

(c) I've had three weeks of very bad 'dice rolls'? (I AM comically unlucky with dice, cards, randomness of any kind!)

*Finally, trivia... I don't know if the player file with the game gives the same names every load, but in my game Peyton Manning is called Coleman Silk. I've just realised that that's the name of the main character in Philip Roth's novel 'The Human Stain', played by Anthony Hopkins in the movie*

[flere-imsaho]

In my opinion, the effect of the "Avoid Interceptions" rating is very, very considerable in determining a QB's performance. Given that your QB currently has a 38 in it, I don't consider 9 INTs in 4 games to be out of the ordinary.

Also, I've found that if you truly have an average receiving corps, the QB will throw more picks, largely because the covering secondaries are outmatching the receivers.

[Saucy]

Perhaps 7 ints in the last 2 games is more eye-opening.

My QB's avoid int rating is actually better than or comparable with four of the top ten performing QBs in the league at this stage, and his accuracy superior to six of them.

I do think the receivers have to be a major factor; it's hard to see how my QB could be in the top ten QBs in the entire league according to (good) scouts, if he were really of the talent level to throw 2 ints per game through his career.

9 ints in 4 games would definitely be out of the ordinary if it continued, for sure: that would be 36 for the season!

[Warhammer]

Accuracy does not mean what you think it does in this context. Accuracy in FOF2k4 is the QB putting the ball in a place where the WR can get more YAC after they catch it.

Many things can account for the INTs, how many times has your QB been hurried or sacked in these games? Is he throwing the INTs when behind, or when the game is close? How do you have your passing bands set up in the game plan, are these deep thrown jump balls that the WRs are losing?

Avoid INT rating is important, but it is not the last word in INTs as you have discovered with your top 10 QBs.

[Saucy]

All good questions.

My QB has been sacked 4 times, but has been hurried frequently. Now, it APPEARS to me that the ints have NOT been on hurried passes, but I could be wrong on that. I surmise that they were not, because the play by play hasn't referred to it in describing the ints, and the game log stats that equate to failed passes - hurries, blocks, bad throws, drops, defenses, ints - add up to exactly each performances total of non-completions. Of course it could be that the game disappointingly believes that 'intercepted' is all we need to know about a pass, and ignores whether the QB was hurried or made a bad throw or whatever.

On the other questions, the ints have come in fairly neutral situations; only one came when we trailed in the 4th quarter, the others were all in balanced games where the defense had no reason to be in a pass-prevent mode. Also, our passing game is based around short and medium passes.

Overall, I suspect that our mediocre receivers are affecting this a bit, combined with some rank bad luck ('dice rolls').

It does lead to me speculate on an element of QB play that the game doesn't appear to simulate unless I've just not seen it yet, namely throwing the ball away. A QB's decision-making on when to throw the ball away versus when to try to force a pass is a big part of his quality in real life, but I've seen no evidence that a FOF quarterback has the option. It seems like they just try to make the throw, no matter what. It would be a huge (and surely relatively easy to simulate) step forward in being able to assess quarterbacks if you could see them opt to throw the ball away in certain situations.

[albionmoonlight]

4 games is a small sample size.

[Saucy]

4 games is a small sample size.

Yup, very true. It probably just seems magnified to me because I run each game on the scoreboard, calling a lot of the plays. Losing two close games in a row thanks entirely to my QB throwing picks, and particularly whenever we get close to the endzone, has been hard to take :)

(He's Jeff Garcia in real life, FWIW)

[yabanci]

In addition to what others have mentioned, also look at your passing cohesion.

[Passacaglia]

How's your gameplan? Are you throwing the deep ball a lot? Go into the boxscores, and compare your success in screen, short, medium, and long passing.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

You actually call the plays? I'm impressed. Too difficult and to time consuming. I bet your in a very small minority of players who do.

[Warhammer]

Another thought is that you might have run up against a few teams with good pass covering LBs, what players were picking off the passes?

[Saucy]

Two good suggestions there... I haven't looked at my passing 'cohesion' in ages, and I really ought to go back and check who has been making the interceptions. I have a feeling there might have been a few picked off by linebackers.

In answer to 'Vinatieriforprez', yes I call a lot of the plays: all the offense, and occasionally the defense on crucial plays. Various reasons; mostly, that's just the way I like to play, very involved. Also, I don't think the coordinators make very good AI decisions, even with a gameplan in place. And finally, I enjoy actually calling the offensive plays far more than going through the endless gameplan settings for offense (hell, it takes me forever to adjust the defensive gameplan each game).

I do get the impression I'm in a minority though, and I think it's one of the great things about FOF, that you can play in different ways.

[Passacaglia]

If you call the plays, look at your team summary, and those of other teams -- do you throw the deep ball more times?

[Cotton]

It does lead to me speculate on an element of QB play that the game doesn't appear to simulate unless I've just not seen it yet, namely throwing the ball away. A QB's decision-making on when to throw the ball away versus when to try to force a pass is a big part of his quality in real life, but I've seen no evidence that a FOF quarterback has the option. It seems like they just try to make the throw, no matter what.
Some times they just take off and run no matter where you want them to throw.
I'm sure they toss a few as far from the db as possible and it's just factored in. As far as your QB's performance: Four games is a tiny sample. And the defenses you're facing have a little to do with it, too.

[yabanci]

...It does lead to me speculate on an element of QB play that the game doesn't appear to simulate unless I've just not seen it yet, namely throwing the ball away. A QB's decision-making on when to throw the ball away versus when to try to force a pass is a big part of his quality in real life, but I've seen no evidence that a FOF quarterback has the option. It seems like they just try to make the throw, no matter what. It would be a huge (and surely relatively easy to simulate) step forward in being able to assess quarterbacks if you could see them opt to throw the ball away in certain situations.

The "read defense" rating has an effect on whether a QB will try to force the ball -- not necessarily throw it away, but to throw to a receiver where there's a better chance of a completion. A QB with a low read defense rating is more apt to try to force it.

File format description: Reading the Defense - ability to adjust to effective defensive pass coverages.

Help file description: ability to read the opposing defense, which determines how effective they are avoiding double-coverage to throw to a secondary receiver.

[Saucy]

The "read defense" rating has an effect on whether a QB will try to force the ball -- not necessarily throw it away, but to throw to a receiver where there's a better chance of a completion. A QB with a low read defense rating is more apt to try to force it.
Yes, as evidenced by the 'The QB threw away from the double coverage' comment in the play-by-play. It's still not like throwing the ball away though, is it? It seems to me to be the biggest element of on-field play (along with play-action) that the game completely omits.

[QuikSand]

*Finally, trivia... I don't know if the player file with the game gives the same names every load, but in my game Peyton Manning is called Coleman Silk. I've just realised that that's the name of the main character in Philip Roth's novel 'The Human Stain', played by Anthony Hopkins in the movie*

The initial player file is absolutely littered with literary characters.