Sony PS3 to be delayed to 07, and Cost $900 to make?

[SirFozzie]

The North American launch of Sony's much-anticipated PlayStation 3 could be delayed until next year, according to a research report issued by Merrill Lynch.

In the report (Click here for PDF), the analyst firm proposed the idea that high costs and Sony's decision to use an "ambitious new processor architecture--the Cell" is making it look like the company might not be able to meet its goal of getting the PS 3 out in the U.S. this year.

The report suggests the possibility that the PS 3 would launch this fall in Japan and in late 2006 or early 2007 in the U.S.

Naturally, it's impossible to know what will really happen with the PS 3, as Sony has maintained a policy of being about as tight-lipped as it could be. But there's no doubt that any significant delay in the next-gen console's launch would be a big black eye for the company, especially since Microsoft has had its Xbox 360 out since last November.

Sony did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In the end, we probably won't know what's going to happen until at least May, when the video game world converges on Los Angeles for E3, the industry's biggest gathering. But it's looking more and more like Sony may be forced to keep mum even there, and that certainly wouldn't play well.

(also in the report is that the initial cost of a PS3 is expected to be $900)


Article: http://news.com.com/2061-10797_3-6041208.html?part=rss&tag=6041208&subj=news
Merriill Lynch Report: http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/276873_0.PDF

[Raiders Army]

No surprise there, especially the cost. Blu-Ray is supposed to be freakin expensive. I think the Blu-Ray DVD players were going to be $500-600. If the PS3 is supposed to support that and play games, $900 sounds about right.

[dervack]

I'm going to say that it will release in 06, at a price of 499.

[MizzouRah]

I'm going to say that it will release in 06, at a price of 499.
..and I'll be there to get one. Unlike the 360, I'm going to pre-order a ps3 this time.

[dervack]

..and I'll be there to get one. Unlike the 360, I'm going to pre-order a ps3 this time.
Meh. I really like my 360, and I can't see myself buying one right away. I'm sure I will eventually, but right now, no.

[ISiddiqui]

I'm going to pass on the PS3. Then again, I never owned a PS2, either. Doesn't seem worth it to me to spend that much.

[IwasHere]

..and I'll be there to get one. Unlike the 360, I'm going to pre-order a ps3 this time.
Even if the report is correct and the price tag is $900?

[SirFozzie]

that's not the pricetag, that's just the cost to make, they may be willing to take a loss on the hardware

[sterlingice]

that's not the pricetag, that's just the cost to make, they may be willing to take a loss on the hardwareNot only that, but that will be the initial cost while they're selling it mostly in bundles, selling you stuff like a $5 remote for $50 so their loss won't be quite as bad. Then, as the production lines get up and running, the cost will go down significantly.

SI

[SackAttack]

I'm betting it will either be $449, unbundled, or $499 with a game included (factory package; EB and GameStop will bundle the hell out of it).

I say that only because the $600-$900 I've heard speculated, depending on the source, seems like suicide given that the Revolution will kick in at probably $299 or so, and that the 360 will be ready for a price drop by the time the PS3 hits shelves. I just can't see it being a viable system at $600, let alone at $900.

Ordinarily, I would agree with SI that Sony will make up the early losses on higher peripheral prices, except that Microsoft will be in a position to do to Sony what Sony did to Microsoft this generation - cut the price of controllers and the like, forcing the other to take an early hit to that profit center to stay competitive.

I think the ideal for Sony would be to bundle 2 or 3 games in with the system, and sell it for the higher price. Yes, you lose out on the licensing fees on the software, but you reduce the value resistance from the consumer. If I'm getting 3 games with it, I can justify it by saying "Well, it's really only like spending $450," if the system launches at $600.

And again, EB and GameStop (and some other places) will bundle the hell out of it. You want to make sure that the core unit holds enough value for the customer that they aren't completely turned off by the bundle prices we're going to see (which are already ugly for the 360, and that's on a $300-400 base price).

[MacroGuru]

From what I have heard, I expect the PS3 to be released in time for the holidays, they have to hit the market at that time in order to make up for their lateness to market.

[MizzouRah]

Even if the report is correct and the price tag is $900?
It's not going to be $900, I don't buy that for one minute. If it is, then no, I won't buy it until the price drops.

The ps3 has the ability to play at 1080p, which ironically is what my new TV will be able to do. I'm hoping as we talked in another thread that Blu-Ray is able to take advantage of that technology. Actually, my ps2 has had so much use that I can see the ps3 getting just as much, if not more use. Plus, I can't wait to see games like MLB The Show on the ps3.

[Philliesfan980]

It's not going to be $900, I don't buy that for one minute. If it is, then no, I won't buy it until the price drops.

The ps3 has the ability to play at 1080p, which ironically is what my new TV will be able to do. I'm hoping as we talked in another thread that Blu-Ray is able to take advantage of that technology. Actually, my ps2 has had so much use that I can see the ps3 getting just as much, if not more use. Plus, I can't wait to see games like MLB The Show on the ps3.

I've seen you around OS lately... do you think MLB The Show is worth getting a ps2 for? I'm really going to be in the mood for a good baseball game come April, and from what I've read, mlb 2k6 is looking to be a disappointment.

[Airhog]

Then, as the production lines get up and running, the cost will go down significantly.

SI

It's all about the Materials management and procurement. They will need to drive down the cost of materials. I think a good target(at least where I work) is approximately 5-10% per business quarter. Really the only part of the production that they can reduce costs is reduce the build time. However, that build time is finite. They can only reduce it by so much, maybe 5%

[sterlingice]

Joystiq is reporting that the $900 figure isn't even accurate as the prices they showed had it adding up to $800. D'oh :p Still, that's a lot of cash
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/18/playstation-3-estimated-to-cost-900-per-unit/

That said, by comparison, here's the X360, weighing in at $715, so what's another hundred bucks, particularly when you pass it on to the consumer...
http://www.joystiq.com/2005/12/28/xbox-360-costs-715-to-make/


SI

[SackAttack]

The problem with most of these sites and their figures is that I'm pretty sure that's retail cost, not true production cost.

[MizzouRah]

I've seen you around OS lately... do you think MLB The Show is worth getting a ps2 for? I'm really going to be in the mood for a good baseball game come April, and from what I've read, mlb 2k6 is looking to be a disappointment.Yes I do. If I didn't have a ps2, I would just for that game. :)

If you pre-order it, you'll get a demo of the game. Looks like they've fixed the rocket arms, strikezone, and there seems to be more variation of hits.

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=47173

[Kodos]

I am in the camp that says there is no way the core unit will come out for more than $500. They know it won't sell well higher than that, and they are willing to take a loss early on, knowing they can make it up later in software sales. Also, they want their Blu-Ray technology to win the technology war. And I believe it will come out this fall.

[sterlingice]

I am in the camp that says there is no way the core unit will come out for more than $500. They know it won't sell well higher than that, and they are willing to take a loss early on, knowing they can make it up later in software sales. Also, they want their Blu-Ray technology to win the technology war. And I believe it will come out this fall.Yeah, that's pretty much what I wrote about on Gamenikki last night in my blog:

Second (http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/18/playstation-3-estimated-to-cost-900-per-unit/) is the story of the $900 PS3 costs. Now, I'm not thrilled with financial "analysts" talking gaming to begin with as it's typically like watching a football fan trying to stumble his way through a baseball discussion with gems like "Derek Jeter's the best player in the game since he has a lot of World Series rings". For example, a couple of weeks ago there were a couple of ludicrous PSP vs DS projections including one where they used Sony's number shipped for the PSP as number sold but used the numbers sold for the DS to base their projections on. And someone pays them to do this.

This analysis has a similar credibility flaw right off the bat as the report claims a $900 price tag despite their numbers only adding up to $800. Still, a lot of people were taking this $900 price tag and "reporting" likely PS3 launch prices at $600 and up, flawed reasoning on many counts. First, Joystiq had a very similar article which pegged preliminary cost estimates for the X360 at $715 and it still sold at the $300/$400 launch price point. A $400 or maybe $500 price tag for the PS3 launch seems much more likely. Second, companies typically lose money on the consoles themselves, particularly at launch. Near as anyone can tell, the Xbox console has always lost money and accounts for a lot of that $4 billion shortfall over the lifespan of the system. Thirdly, these costs come down as the console ages. The article claims the cost in 3 years will only be $320 per system, allowing Sony to make a price drop or two and either be breaking even or losing a much smaller amount before too long. Finally, these are estimates. None of this is based on official public and published facts. It's not as if you can walk up to IBM and ask how much a Cell costs, much less what bulk rate they are selling them to Sony at.

It seems really unlikely that we'll see a higher than $500 price point for the PS3 as it would be market suicide. That's just not something Sony can afford to do when it has the hopes of both the gaming and movie divisions resting on the PS3 having a huge install base.http://www.gamenikki.com/g3/blogs/Frank.php (The second entry, below TWIN #13)

SI

[dixieflatline]

cnet has a very interesting article on the PS3 and the XBOX manufacturing costs here:
http://news.com.com/PlayStation+3+component+prices+Why+so+high/2100-1043_3-6042226.html?tag=nefd.lede
I'm not going to copy the entire article because it is quite long but it appears that the initial cost of the PS3 will be in the $725-$900 range but that is expected to drop significantly after a few years of production. There is a nice breakdown on each of the components that goes into the XBOX and PS3. They also put the retail price at around $299-$399 to compete with the XBOX. That seems like quite a big price hit to me. No hints as to the release date though.

[SFL Cat]

Delayed? Hmmm.....Maximum Playstation!!!!

[SackAttack]

I am in the camp that says there is no way the core unit will come out for more than $500.

That's a turn of phrase that rather interests me. With some of the vintage units, I recall "core unit" being used to distinguish between the system that came with a game or games, and the one that didn't.

There was a Sega Genesis core unit, system and one controller, and a Sonic the Hedgehog bundle, by way of explanation. There was usually a price difference, but not on the level we see today.

These days, it seems to have a different meaning: the core unit enjoys basic functionality (whereas in the Genesis example, both systems worked the same, one of 'em just didn't have any games in the box), while the "premium" unit is more expensive (sometimes greatly so), and has added functionality, but still doesn't have a game in the box.

Interesting evolution of the language in the industry.

[SirFozzie]

Looks like there was at least some fire causing this smoke..

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2352&Itemid=2

Few in the industry believe that PlayStation 3 will launch in the spring. It looks like Sony may be ready to announce a delay. A company spokesperson has admitted that a delay is possible.

Sony has told the media that the launch of the console will be delayed due to difficulties in finalizing the Blu-ray drive's specs. An unnamed spokesperson for Sony Computer Entertainment in Japan admitted that PlayStation 3 launch could be delayed.

SCE said that if final specs were not finalised with the Blu-ray Disc development consortium, the launch of the console could be delayed.

Famitsu president Hirokazu Hamamura, is quoted, "Sony has not begun taking orders early this month, that means that it would be difficult for the company to begin sales in May."

Until now, Sony has steadfastly stuck to its previously announced launch date of "spring" without offering any further details. Most industry observers believe the machine will be launched in Japan and North America in the fall.

[SackAttack]

I never thought we'd see it here in the spring. That it could slip to fall even in Japan is surprising.

Are they seriously going to attempt a global Christmas launch after the, um, "fun" Microsoft had with the Xbox 360 this past fall? I'd almost pay to watch that.

[gstelmack]

Are they seriously going to attempt a global Christmas launch after the, um, "fun" Microsoft had with the Xbox 360 this past fall? I'd almost pay to watch that.Finally found a 360 sitting on the shelf at a local Target last night. Now they have none, and my brother-in-law's family will finally get their Christmas present...

[wade moore]

If this slips to christmas time, Sony could be forcing my hand to Microsoft for the next run of football games.. and I don't intend to buy both...

[dixieflatline]

Well Wade looks like they might be forcing your hand. From the playstation business briefing:


Sony has officially announced that the release of the PS3 is postponed from this spring to early November of 2006. However, the release of the PS3 will be global - Asia, North America and Europe will be getting the release in the mean time. Sony will be able to offer 1 million consoles per month after the release, to meet the need of the users around the world.

Interesting that they have decided to make a global release.

[wade moore]

Well Wade looks like they might be forcing your hand. From the playstation business briefing:



Interesting that they have decided to make a global release.

Tsk Tsk, Xbox 360, here I come...

[MizzouRah]

Looks like it's November for me. :(

[Cringer]

I am actually a llittle happy about this. Now I don't have to feel like I am missing out on it while I try to save up some extra money to buy one.

[Kodos]

November for PS3. October for next season of BSG. September for football.


Waiting sux.

[SackAttack]

Are they seriously going to attempt a global Christmas launch after the, um, "fun" Microsoft had with the Xbox 360 this past fall? I'd almost pay to watch that.

Looks like I'll get my chance!

[SackAttack]

Interesting quotes from GameSpot's article about the announcement:

"We view the hard drive to be mandatory for the PS3. Rather than have developers create games for the PS3 with or without the HDD, we will be asking them to develop games as though all PS3s have the HDD installed.

Followed almost immediately by this nugget:

However, Kutaragi revealed that Sony had not decided whether or not the PlayStation 3 would come with the hard-drive preinstalled. "We might end up installing it in all PS3s, though that depends on the market," he said. This raises the possibility that the PS3 could be sold without a piece of hardware needed to play PS3 games--in effect forcing consumers to buy a peripheral for basic functionality.

So...sell the system absent the hard drive, presumably around $400-500, but require the hard drive to make the system work. Just like that, instant $100-150 accessory sale and the ability to go before the media and crow about "record accessory attachments."

I'm aware that Microsoft did something similar in splitting the 360 market into Premium and Core users, but at least the Core will play games without the hard drive.

This...hell, Sony, why not just sell the console by itself with no video or power cables and no controller? Make people buy those separately, too. Heck, that way people can get only the video cable they want, rather than getting RCA and then buying an additional component video or HDMI cable for their high-definition setups. Everybody wins!

[Raiders Army]

I wish I had an RCA cable for my Xbox 360 this summer when we move back to El Paso. Now I'll have to buy one dammit.

[SackAttack]

I wish I had an RCA cable for my Xbox 360 this summer when we move back to El Paso. Now I'll have to buy one dammit.

They don't actually sell them separately, I don't think.

The core comes with an RCA, the premium comes with an RCA/RGB.

Sold separately, there's RCA/S-Video or RCA/RGB.

[gstelmack]

The core comes with an RCA, the premium comes with an RCA/RGB.

Yup. If you have a premium, there's a switch on the cable that chooses between RCA/RGB and instructions with the console on which ends go where when using with a standard TV.

[Raiders Army]

Yup. If you have a premium, there's a switch on the cable that chooses between RCA/RGB and instructions with the console on which ends go where when using with a standard TV.
Cool. I didn't know that. I thought there were too many plugins...

[SackAttack]

Yup. If you have a premium, there's a switch on the cable that chooses between RCA/RGB and instructions with the console on which ends go where when using with a standard TV.

Actually, I'm pretty sure the switch isn't from RCA/RGB but from HD to non-HD when using the RGB side of the cables.

[gstelmack]

Actually, I'm pretty sure the switch isn't from RCA/RGB but from HD to non-HD when using the RGB side of the cables.

Yup, you're correct, my mistake. Missed that extra yellow connector. You have RGB video, composite video, and stereo audio all on the same cable, rather than overloading a connector as I suggested.

[Kodos]

A couple of sites are now reporting that PS3 will come standard with a 60 GB hard drive.

http://uk.videogames.games.yahoo.com/25/news/ps3-will-have-hard-drive-as-standard-3c0925.html

PS3 will have hard drive as standard [PS3]
Friday March 17, 11:12 AM

Our Sony representative has confirmed this morning that PlayStation 3 will come with a 60GB HDD as standard, but that can be upgraded if preferred.

Some of the larger US websites have been speculating that PlayStation 3 would be shipping with an optional 60GB hard disc drive. However we can confirm this morning that all PS3 consoles will be sold with the HDD out of the box. Sony's president of Computer Entertainment, Ken Kutaragi, announced on Wednesday that all PS3 games are being developed to take advantage of the 60GB HDD.

Another essential use for the HDD will be Sony's online service, which will offer downloads in a similar way to Microsoft's Xbox Live platform. Clearly now it is Sony's intention to standardise the PlayStation 3 community, so that all developers know that everybody who owns PS3 will benefit from HDD-related features in-game. Bizarrely this used to be Microsoft's standpoint with its original Xbox, but the Redmond corporation has since taken an about turn with Xbox 360.

http://www.the-magicbox.com/gaming.htm

P L A Y S T A T I O N 3

- SCE president Ken Kutagari announced that the PlayStation 3 launch will be delayed to November 2006, due to Blu-Ray spec finalization, mainly for copyright protection. The PS3 will launch in November 2006 worldwide, before Thanksgiving in all territories. Sony plans to produce at least one million units of PS3 each month, and the goal is to ship 6 million units worldwide by the end of March 2007.

- PlayStaton 3 will launch with the new PlayStation Network Platform service, which offers online gaming services similar to Xbox Live. The new service will be "free".

- PlayStation 3 will have a built-in 60GB 2.5" hard drive, which will be preloaded with Linux operating system. The hard drive can be used as a home server, it will be fully upgradable. Kutaragi told software developers that every PS3 will have a hard drive installed, as it is mandatory. Sony has not decided whether the hard drive will be sold as a separate (mandatory) peripheral or bundled with the console.

- Sony confirmed that all PS3 games will be released only on Blu-Ray discs, as DVDs are too easy being duplicated. PS3 is still capable to play DVDs and CDs, and fully backward compatible with PS2 and PSone.

- Sony announced that the final PS3 development kits will be shipping out to production studios in June; currently more than 15 companies are development middleware and dev-tools for PS3.

[SackAttack]

- PlayStation 3 will have a built-in 60GB 2.5" hard drive, which will be preloaded with Linux operating system. The hard drive can be used as a home server, it will be fully upgradable. Kutaragi told software developers that every PS3 will have a hard drive installed, as it is mandatory. Sony has not decided whether the hard drive will be sold as a separate (mandatory) peripheral or bundled with the console.

Kodos, if every PS3 will come with the 60 GB HD, that's encouraging news, but quotes like this one kind of dirty the waters some.

Every PS3 will have a hard drive installed, as it is mandatory. Okay, great. Sony has not decided whether the hard drive will be sold as a separate (mandatory) peripheral or bundled with the console?

This is exactly what the American sites have been speculating about - the possibility that the PS3 will have a mandatory component sold separately, which in turn effectively raises the price of the console beyond whatever the officially announced MSRP is.

The first story you cited seems to answer that question - that it will be in the box at retail. The second one is still clouding the issue somewhat.

Hopefully it ships with the console, but the demand for premiums and for separate hard drives for the 360 does seem to indicate that, provided the hard drive is available at launch, and not three years after the fact (à la PS2) makes splitting the market much less of an issue than I originally believed.

If they sell it separately, as Microsoft has done with the 360, I think they'll be okay as long as it's available at launch.

[dixieflatline]

Some more info on what Sony is thinking about the harddrive and the Linux OS on it:

From an interview with the president of Sony Ken Kutaragi:


"We're positioning the PS3 as a supercomputer", he says, "But people won't recognize it as a computer unless we call it a computer, so we're going to run an OS on it. In fact, the Cell can run multiple OSes. In order to run the OSes, we need a hard disk. So in order to declare that the PS3 is a computer, I think we'll have [the hard disk] preinstalled with Linux as a bonus.

Kutaragi said the PS3 will run operating systems as applications. "The kernel will be running on the Cell, and multiple OSes will be running on top of that as applications. Of course, the PS3 can run Linux. If Linux can run, so can Lindows. Other PC Operating Systems can run too, such as Windows and (Mac OS) Tiger, if the publishers want to do so. Maybe a new OS might come out," he adds.

He says that providing hard disk with the PS3 will permit the, um, console, to be used as a computer - for applications beyond gaming. Video editing and photo retouching are examples of applications that could be run on a Linux-powered PS3, he suggests.

This just doesn't seem like the right direction to me. Who in the world is going to run video editing or photo retouching on their PS3? On some level having linux installed makes sense because it takes up very little space on the harddrive and operates very quickly. If you are going to install things like video editors though you are missing out on one of the linux advantages (though the photo retouching isn't too big a problem because GIMP is pretty small). Also, Sony seems pretty adamant about not letting homebrew type aplications run of the PSP and if they do indeed go with linux on these hardrives it is only a matter of time before homebrew pops up for the PS3.

[Eaglesfan27]

To me those comments seem to be attempting to set up justification for a huge price point on the PS3.

[Anthony]

if people wanted to do video editing and photo retouching, why wouldn't they just use a computer?

[stevew]

To me those comments seem to be attempting to set up justification for a huge price point on the PS3.


Yeah, you could sell it to the parents crowd for a bit more money if you call it a computer. Makes it sound like it will be $699 fully loaded(or more).

[dawgfan]

if people wanted to do video editing and photo retouching, why wouldn't they just use a computer?
Price - the PS3 could very well be a terrific bargain in comparison to a comparable PC.

[Raiders Army]

I really don't see how the PS3 will sell for less than $900.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12093612/

According to this article the price of a regular Blu-Ray player will be "less than $1,500". I don't see Blu-Ray players selling for $1,000 and the PS3 selling for $699 when it plays games as well.

[Blade6119]

I really don't see how the PS3 will sell for less than $900.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12093612/

According to this article the price of a regular Blu-Ray player will be "less than $1,500". I don't see Blu-Ray players selling for $1,000 and the PS3 selling for $699 when it plays games as well.
Sony is willing to take a loss short-term, as they did with PS2, as long as they feel they will make it up over the course of the system. Depending on what they expect sales to be, sony might be willing to take a big loss now to make a big gain later...i think sony knows $900 and they will lose a lot of customers...just my opinion

[Bee]

I thought it already was announced in Japan the PS3 wouldn't be more than $500 or whatever the equivalent yen would be?

[Kodos]

There's no way it will sell for even close to $900. I'd predict $500 tops. Plus, PS3 is important in the format wars. Sony wants Blu-Ray to prevail.

[Raiders Army]

At $500 a pop, would they be taking a pretty big substantial hit on each machine?

If a regular Blu-Ray player costs $1000 for the consumer and $500 to produce, then wouldn't the PS3 cost at least $750 to produce? In that case, they would be taking a massive loss on each PS3 sold. Stores need to make a profit, so they would sell them to the distributors for say, $400 apiece, which is a decent profit for the distributors and stores (with a $500 MSRP), especially factoring in all the "extras" consumers will buy. At that rate, they would lose $350 for each PS3 sold. If they're trying to sell three million by Christmas, that's over a billion dollars in losses. There's no way that will happen.

The only thing I see happening is releasing the PS3 without Blu-Ray like the Xbox 360.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

At $500 a pop, would they be taking a pretty big substantial hit on each machine?

If a regular Blu-Ray player costs $1000 for the consumer and $500 to produce, then wouldn't the PS3 cost at least $750 to produce? In that case, they would be taking a massive loss on each PS3 sold. Stores need to make a profit, so they would sell them to the distributors for say, $400 apiece, which is a decent profit for the distributors and stores (with a $500 MSRP), especially factoring in all the "extras" consumers will buy. At that rate, they would lose $350 for each PS3 sold. If they're trying to sell three million by Christmas, that's over a billion dollars in losses. There's no way that will happen.

The only thing I see happening is releasing the PS3 without Blu-Ray like the Xbox 360.

They've built out the financial model. You wouldn't believe the amount of cash that Sony will make if Blue-Ray becomes the standard. It makes the losses on hardware for PS3 seem insignificant. The only way they can do that is to get it out in the PS3's. It will be $500 and Sony will stand to make huge profits if/when all media is created with Blue-Ray.

[dixieflatline]

I agree with everyone else about the final price. I posted earlier the CNET article about the component price and itt appears Sony believes that the blu-ray drive price will drop dramatically in the next year. If that is the case they might only be taking a huge hit on the first few million sold. Slightly off topic but still interesting is <a href=http://pspupdates.qj.net/PSP-s-movie-viewing-feature-days-numbered-/pg/49/aid/13425> this article</a> about how poor sales for the UMD movies for the PSP are. Some very negative comments from the movie people in there. This seems to be another attempt at making the game system do something completely different and it doesn't appear like the public is buying it. Sony should look hard at this because it appears they could be heading down the same road with the PS3.

[KJDelaney]

big reason for the delay is not for games as much as it is with the Blu Ray technology.

BTW, all platform makers sell machines at a loss. backend money is from games and accessories, as well as game network, IE xbox live.

[SirFozzie]

There's no way it will sell for even close to $900. I'd predict $500 tops. Plus, PS3 is important in the format wars. Sony wants Blu-Ray to prevail.

Looks Like you're wrong, Kodos..

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060405-6526.html

PlayStation 3 European pricing revealed

4/5/2006 10:55:59 AM, by Ken Fisher

The president of Sony Computer Entertainment France and vice president of Sony Computer Entertainment Europe, George Fornay, is talking price when it comes to the PlayStation 3. In a radio show with France's Europe 1, Fornay said that the PlayStation 3 will sell for between €499 and €599. Fornay acknowledged that the price may seem steep, but he emphasized that that price should be seen as inexpensive when one considers that the console will also play Blu-ray movies. Fornay also confirmed that Sony would be going for a simultaneous launch of the console in November of this year.

(that's $600-$725 in US Dollars)

[dixieflatline]

Wow. Just wow. I'm sure that MS is licking their chops and will be reducing the xbox to way undercut this. I think I am going to look into short selling some Sony stock...

[SackAttack]

Foz, the story I read at GameSpot didn't attribute this as an official stance, but rather what the President of SCEF personally believed the hardware would cost.

Seems likely, but I don't know if this is official by any means.

[Deattribution]

Even at that price, if the Blu-ray disc catch on, early on that will be a steal for a blu-ray DVD player along with the fact it's also a top of the line console system with a supposed pre-installed OS also.

[Philliesfan980]

Even at that price, if the Blu-ray disc catch on, early on that will be a steal for a blu-ray DVD player along with the fact it's also a top of the line console system with a supposed pre-installed OS also.


Why would I care about an OS in my console?

[Deattribution]

Why would I care about an OS in my console?

What's the disadvantage? If anything, it adds some possibilities.

[dixieflatline]

From Cnet:

Sony has cut the U.S. price of its popular PlayStation 2 video game console by about 13 percent, saying the discount should help fuel demand.

In a statement Thursday, the company said that effective immediately, the PlayStation 2 computer entertainment system would retail for about $130, down from a previous price of around $149.

Analysts have been waiting for a price reduction on Sony's market-leading video game console ahead of the expected release of its new PlayStation 3 in November. Sony has kept mum on its price.

Video game console makers typically reduce prices to spur demand, particularly as a device ages, or ahead of the launch of a new model.

PlayStation 2, first introduced in 2000, has shipped over 101 million units and dominates the interactive game console market, despite the introduction last year of Microsoft's next-generation device, Xbox 360. The more popular premium Xbox 360 system retails for $400.

Sony last cut the price on its stand-alone PS2 to about $149 from $179 in June 2004. Last week, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian suggested that Microsoft could also trim the price on its original Xbox device, but said the impact of that would be limited, due to dwindling supplies of the machine, which now sells for around $149.

Console price cuts could also recharge slumping U.S. video game sales, which fell 8 percent in March, the seventh straight monthly decline, according to data from market research firm NPD Group.

Things just aren't looking all that good for Sony. With the PS3 coming how many people are going to buy a PS2 now? And still no final word one PS3 pricing.

[TroyF]

Even at that price, if the Blu-ray disc catch on, early on that will be a steal for a blu-ray DVD player along with the fact it's also a top of the line console system with a supposed pre-installed OS also.

I don't buy my consoles for playing movies. It's a nice function and all, but I have a DVD player and surround system for playing them. Blu Ray? Sounds nice and all, but I'm not a huge DVD buyer anyway and will probably be more than content to wait for the price to drop.

Does Sony really expect me to drop $600 on a console with first generation titles when the Xbox 360 will be in the middle of their second gen titles with a library full of solid titles?

I'm a geek. I buy every freakin new gadget I can afford. It's my drug. I have a 360, a high end PDA, a high end laptop, a powerhouse desktop, a PSP, an expensive cell phone, an HD TV and a high end surround sound system. Even I have to look at the bottom line on occasion and say "Is this REALLY worth it?"

A 600 dollar price tag for the system (which would essentially be an 900 or more price tag after an extra controller, a couple of games and accessories) is going to cause me to ask that question. The answer is pretty simple. NO.

[dixieflatline]

I'm a geek. I buy every freakin new gadget I can afford. It's my drug. I have a 360, a high end PDA, a high end laptop, a powerhouse desktop, a PSP, an expensive cell phone, an HD TV and a high end surround sound system.


It appears I have a new hero...

[Deattribution]

I don't buy my consoles for playing movies. It's a nice function and all, but I have a DVD player and surround system for playing them. Blu Ray? Sounds nice and all, but I'm not a huge DVD buyer anyway and will probably be more than content to wait for the price to drop.

Does Sony really expect me to drop $600 on a console with first generation titles when the Xbox 360 will be in the middle of their second gen titles with a library full of solid titles?

I'm a geek. I buy every freakin new gadget I can afford. It's my drug. I have a 360, a high end PDA, a high end laptop, a powerhouse desktop, a PSP, an expensive cell phone, an HD TV and a high end surround sound system. Even I have to look at the bottom line on occasion and say "Is this REALLY worth it?"

A 600 dollar price tag for the system (which would essentially be an 900 or more price tag after an extra controller, a couple of games and accessories) is going to cause me to ask that question. The answer is pretty simple. NO.

But the reality is there is a large portion of people with HDtvs who want HD DVDs, your choices are $400 for a HDDVD player, or $600 for a PS3 with blu-ray and a gaming system. Not to mention there will be completely different titles for each player.

Plus, nobody knows what the PS3 is launching with, so its a bit short-sighted to shit on their releases before theyve even announced any.

[Marc Vaughan]

The reality of the situation as I see it.

Sony exec slips up and accidentally released the price of the PS-3 (cough) .. people react with shock and indicate they'd never buy it at that price.

Fast forward to just before release, Sony release pricing details for the PS-3 suprisingly its much reduced from the 'slipped' price given 'x' months before hand, its still higher than most other consoles at release but people ignore that and concentrate upon how much cheaper it is than they'd expected and besides its 'not' that much more expensive than a BluRay player on its own ... so why not get one ;)

(if I remember right something similar happened with the PS-2 launch a few years back now)

[sterlingice]

Why, that's almost like having someone at a large respected news organization claim it's going to cost $900 to start a panic and that Sony would release a much lower price and release date at E3 *gasps* ;)


SI

[TroyF]

But the reality is there is a large portion of people with HDtvs who want HD DVDs, your choices are $400 for a HDDVD player, or $600 for a PS3 with blu-ray and a gaming system. Not to mention there will be completely different titles for each player.

Plus, nobody knows what the PS3 is launching with, so its a bit short-sighted to shit on their releases before theyve even announced any.


I said "if"

No, we don't know yet. No matter what the price tag, the system probably won't have a lot with it. The standard is the console and a controller. Maybe they add a HD, though there are reports all over the map as to if it will even have one.

Add in another controller ($50), a wireless hook up for their network ($100), their gaming network cost ($50), a couple of games ($120) and you are over $300 in accessories no matter what the starting cost is.

If that starting cost approaches the $600 price point? Forget it. I'm not spending a grand on a video game system so I can have the joy of Blue Ray. If I get a hard on for a Blue Ray player, I'll but a high quality set top to go with the rest of my setup.

We'll see where it really comes out at. We'll also see how the bundles will be priced. Then I'll make a decision. But I'm allowed to voice an opinion before I see all the facts. :)

[Deattribution]

I said "if"



Not to nitpick, but no you didn't :)

[ISiddiqui]

I doubt most people will buy a PS3 because it has "Blu-Ray". Most people will wait out the Hi Def DVD wars to see who wins. Especially since the Big Six studios are divided on the standard.

[terpkristin]

I doubt most people will buy a PS3 because it has "Blu-Ray". Most people will wait out the Hi Def DVD wars to see who wins. Especially since the Big Six studios are divided on the standard.

Maybe, maybe not. If I remember correctly, the DVD won the format wars "back in the day" because of the popularity of the PS2 in Japan, and the fact that it could play DVD's. Perhaps it might not be a motivating factor as much here in the states, but consoles have helped "win format wars" in the past and I'm betting Sony is hoping to do it again (though we see how miserably they failed with the UMD movies).

Mark my words, consoles and porn will determine the winner of the next gen format wars. The trick will be to see which format most of the porn industry chooses... ;)

/tk

[ISiddiqui]

Maybe, maybe not. If I remember correctly, the DVD won the format wars "back in the day" because of the popularity of the PS2 in Japan, and the fact that it could play DVD's. Perhaps it might not be a motivating factor as much here in the states, but consoles have helped "win format wars" in the past and I'm betting Sony is hoping to do it again (though we see how miserably they failed with the UMD movies).

What was the competing format with DVD? IIRC, the two competing formats were united by IBM's President to avoid a format war.

[Grammaticus]

Maybe, maybe not. If I remember correctly, the DVD won the format wars "back in the day" because of the popularity of the PS2 in Japan, and the fact that it could play DVD's. Perhaps it might not be a motivating factor as much here in the states, but consoles have helped "win format wars" in the past and I'm betting Sony is hoping to do it again (though we see how miserably they failed with the UMD movies).

Mark my words, consoles and porn will determine the winner of the next gen format wars. The trick will be to see which format most of the porn industry chooses... ;)

/tk
What format war was going on when the PS2 came out? DVD versus what? It was in 2000 (PS2 release) and people were already overwhelmingly replacing VHS machines with DVD players. DVD was the fastest accepted format in media history, largely because there was not a competition in format. The -/+ media format was quickly quelched as players ran both along wth CDs. The benefit of digital disc format. Something that was not really an option with the Beta/VHS issue.

I see the Blu Ray HD-DVD being more like the DVD-R and DVD+R. Both are digital and I'm sure someone will develope a player that plays both before too long. By the time average people want or feel like they need a super hi def format, you will be able to buy a player that plays both blu ray and HD-DVD.

[stevew]

Divx was a competing format IIRC. And I think that the bickering was mainly quelched before the release of the dvd players anyways.

[Marc Vaughan]

I doubt most people will buy a PS3 because it has "Blu-Ray". Most people will wait out the Hi Def DVD wars to see who wins. Especially since the Big Six studios are divided on the standard.

I agree with this wholeheartedly - I think Sony's backed the wrong horse in using 'Blu-Ray' as its big selling point, it worked with the PS-2 because DVD's were increasing in popularity and pretty much everyone knew they'd get one eventually.

As it stands few people I know out of 360 owners even have a HD television and so BluRay is of nominal interest at best to them, to me the standard has the 'feel' of those VideoDisks or whatever they were that looked like LP's before the DVD came along.

(I still think they or Xbox360 should have used a Tivo style program as the consoles main selling point that IS something which most people want and are increasingly getting these days, heck if people already have one then chances are they'd like their kids to have one also so they don't squabble over recording space or play backs ... I know I've been considering getting Sky+ (English equivalent) for my daughter as a birthday present for just that reason (didn't do it because of the monthly subscription/because I'm a tightwad .. but thats another issue ;) ).

[Deattribution]

I agree with this wholeheartedly - I think Sony's backed the wrong horse in using 'Blu-Ray' as its big selling point, it worked with the PS-2 because DVD's were increasing in popularity and pretty much everyone knew they'd get one eventually.

As it stands few people I know out of 360 owners even have a HD television and so BluRay is of nominal interest at best to them, to me the standard has the 'feel' of those VideoDisks or whatever they were that looked like LP's before the DVD came along.

(I still think they or Xbox360 should have used a Tivo style program as the consoles main selling point that IS something which most people want and are increasingly getting these days, heck if people already have one then chances are they'd like their kids to have one also so they don't squabble over recording space or play backs ... I know I've been considering getting Sky+ (English equivalent) for my daughter as a birthday present for just that reason (didn't do it because of the monthly subscription/because I'm a tightwad .. but thats another issue ;) ).

But isn't the purpose of the blu-ray beyond just DVDs? I mean, initially it's the selling point - but you're talking about up to 40 gigs(?) (supposedly like 12? at the start but ability to expand) of disc space for games. Even if it doesn't hit huge in the DVD market, it still makes the console potentially superior.

[Marc Vaughan]

But isn't the purpose of the blu-ray beyond just DVDs? I mean, initially it's the selling point - but you're talking about up to 40 gigs(?) (supposedly like 12? at the start but ability to expand) of disc space for games. Even if it doesn't hit huge in the DVD market, it still makes the console potentially superior.

Errr considering most games don't fully fill a DVD currently I think BluRay isn't going to really be utilised in that manner to a great extent unless games go heavy on the HDTV video footage for fillers between levels and suchlike.

Its also worth considering that distribution of games is likely to move further towards digital distribution within the next 5 years with it becoming very common place imho within 10 years, as such BluRay imho isn't really a contributing factor towards games as much as towards movies.

(as always feel free to ignore my tuppence worth, my wife normally does ;) )

[dixieflatline]

From cnet.

Sony posted a 68 percent rise in annual operating profit on Thursday on investment gains and robust sales of flat TVs, but forecast a surprisingly sharp fall this business year.

Start-up costs for the PlayStation 3 will push its game division deep into the red, the company said.

Sony's earnings were inflated in the past business year by windfall profits at its life insurance unit, which saw valuation gains soar with the rallying Japanese stock market, as well as a one-off boost related to its pension fund and a softer yen.

But the strong result also underscores fundamental improvements including healthy sales of its PlayStation Portable (PSP) handheld game console, Vaio PCs and recently launched Bravia brand liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs.

Sony forecast group operating profit to slide 48 percent to $872 million (100 billion yen) in the year to March, well short of the market consensus of $1.49 billion (171.2 billion yen), the average figure from 19 analysts surveyed by Reuters Estimates.

It projected sales to jump 10 percent to $71.4 billion (8.2 trillion yen).

That followed a surprisingly large operating profit of $1.66 billion in the previous financial year, up from $993 million in 2004/05 and blowing past the consensus figure of $1.14 billion. Sony's own forecast was for $871.8 million.

It was still unclear how investors would react.

"This will probably be a bit of a headache for analysts," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments. "The results were pretty good, but on the surface the forecast looks bad.... The stock may fall a bit tomorrow."

The weak outlook comes despite a sharp drop in restructuring expenses, which were front-loaded in 2005/06--the first year of a revival plan under which the company set out to close several factories, sell assets and cut 10,000 jobs.

The main culprit is the game division, which Sony said would rack up an operating loss of $871.8 million this business year as it gears up to launch the PS3 in November, overshadowing an expected recovery by its core electronics unit.

Sony said it expected to sell 6 million PS3 units by March.

"We believe that we can lower costs dramatically (on the PS3) through chip shrinkage and by cutting the number of parts, but there is no way to avoid high costs in the first year," Sony Senior Vice President Takao Yuhara told a news conference.

So it appears that sony is planning on an operating loss of $871.8 million all from the PS3 launch. And I am sure someone can find a good shrinkage joke in there.

[Deattribution]

Little bit as to why Sony is so adamant about getting their blu-ray drives on the PS3.

With all of this confusion, some folks may wonder why Sony has been so outright steadfast about including Blu-ray in the PlayStation 3. Aside from simply making things confusing, the format has also played a large role in the system's delay to November of this year.

Really, there are multiple answers to this. First and most obviously, gaming benefits most from Blu-ray's massive storage capabilities, with dual-layer discs capable of holding up to 50GB of data. Dual-layer HD-DVDs can store about 30GB by comparison while dual-later DVDs can store around 9GBs. The Blu-ray Disc Association is currently experimenting with eight-layer discs capable of holding a whopping 200GB of data. If that's not enough room for you RPG gamers out there, we don't know what is.


More importantly in Sony's long-term plans as an electronics giant, however, is Blu-ray's role in movies. While Blu-ray will likely do fairly well on its own (once the prices come down to more consumer-friendly levels, anyway), Sony is using the PlayStation 3 to act as something of a Trojan Horse to get players into people's homes. If the PS3 is roughly as successful as Sony's past consoles, that would mean somewhere around 100 million Blu-ray players in homes all over the world in around five years or so, not counting standalone players.

Being as Sony pioneered the technology, should Blu-ray win out over HD-DVD and supplant DVD as the standard in home video, the company stands to make a fortune raking in a small percentage for every Blu-ray disc sold, similar to how it currently takes a licensing cut for every game sold.

[SackAttack]

From cnet.



So it appears that sony is planning on an operating loss of $871.8 million all from the PS3 launch. And I am sure someone can find a good shrinkage joke in there.

It's worth noting they're talking about $871.8m in losses by the end of the fiscal year (March 31) and 6 million units sold also by March.

That'd translate into a loss of $145.30 on every system sold...but it's difficult to directly predict from that what the price of the system will be, because that figure could also take into account higher losses ameliorated by the sale of PlayStation 3 software. At any rate, that does make it seem likely that we're going to be looking at a $499-549 price point at launch for PS3.

[dervack]

In other console news, Nintendo renamed their console, opting for the name Wii (we), as in Wii can't think of a good name for our system.

[stevew]

Revolution was a stupid name, dunno about the replacement however.

[Deattribution]

I actually liked Revolution, as 'I am going to go play with my Wii (we)' doesn't sound so hot.

[Deattribution]

dola

Needless to say, it's going to be the butt of alot of jokes.

They may have just revolutionized the way Wii watch the system fail.

[Raiders Army]

I actually liked Revolution, as 'I am going to go play with my Wii (we)' doesn't sound so hot.
Agreed on both counts. LOL on your second comment.

[ISiddiqui]

Well I thought it was obvious that Sony is pushing for Blu-Ray so it can try to 'force' the standard.

[dixieflatline]

OK one more story. I promise this will be the last one I post before the real price is announced but for some reason I am just really interested in this story. From forbes:

Sparking one last round of rumors and excitement among gamers before a big convention in Los Angeles, an independent PlayStation magazine said it had the final word Wednesday on pricing for Sony’s PS3 console.

The machine will cost $399, contain a 60 gigabyte hard drive and will go on sale in the first half of November, according to PSM. The PS3 was originally scheduled for release in Spring 2006.

A Sony (nyse: SNE - news - people ) spokeswoman said earlier this month that no further details on pricing or launch would become available until May 8 at a press event ahead of the E3 game industry trade show.

The pricing details in PSM -- which noted that the console would sell for 322 euros in Europe -- differ drastically from an earlier rumor from vice president of Sony Computer Entertainment Europe George Fornay that put the European price at 499 euros.

A $399 PS3 would be competitive with the Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) Xbox 360, which went on sale in November 2005 and also costs $399. The PS3, however, contains a high-definition Blu-Ray drive, while the Xbox 360 could eventually ship with a $100 HD disc drive but doesn’t currently.

Stand-alone HD disc drives from Toshiba (other-otc: TOSBF.PK - news - people ) went on sale in April and retailed for $499 each.

On April 21, Sony slashed prices on its older console, the PS2, to $129 from $149. The company has “a long-term vision for the PlayStation 2 platform,” said Sony Computer Entertainment chief executive officer America Kaz Hirai.

So this is the lowest figure that we had heard and would mean that sony would be selling the console at less than half of what they will initially take to produce. Really though I just don't think they have an alternative. I just don't see people buying a $500 console when the Xbox will have more titles at a much lower price at that point.

Anyway, that last line I also find very interesting. "Long term vision for the PS2"? You mean it has a future that doesn't involve the scrap heap?

[SackAttack]

OK one more story. I promise this will be the last one I post before the real price is announced but for some reason I am just really interested in this story. From forbes:



So this is the lowest figure that we had heard and would mean that sony would be selling the console at less than half of what they will initially take to produce. Really though I just don't think they have an alternative. I just don't see people buying a $500 console when the Xbox will have more titles at a much lower price at that point.

Anyway, that last line I also find very interesting. "Long term vision for the PS2"? You mean it has a future that doesn't involve the scrap heap?

Sony's big on "ten-year console life cycles." They made a big deal about it with the PlayStation and they've been talking about it with the PS2 since at least 2003.

Isn't going to amount to shit because third parties won't develop for it forever - at least the ones aiming at adult gamers won't - but it looks nice in a press release.

$400 with a 60 gig HDD and a Blu-ray drive tells me one of two things.

1) They're serious about pushing Blu-ray.
2) Either Microsoft's North American success has them worried to the point where they're not concerned with the money they're going to lose initially, they just don't want to see their market share erode further when people are already iffy over $400, or else they're taking it seriously when people say "I don't give a damn about the Blu-ray player. I'm buying this for games, and it better not exceed {price point here}."

Maybe both.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Excellent news for Sony fans. Loyalty might waiver some if the price point would have been $500+. With a $399 price point including Blu-Ray, you could buy the PS3 and not do anything other than watch Blu-Ray DVD's and still have a great piece of equipment. We'll obviously hear more about this given that E3 Expo is just around the corner.

[sterlingice]

C'mon, guys- who really thought the PS3 would open at a price higher than $500? All you've been posting so far is rumor and "analyst" guesses. But, c'mon, $900 just doesn't pass the smell test. Heck, anything over $500 doesn't pass the smell test. It just wouldn't sell and Sony needs this to sell well so that they can get good traction with Blu-Ray.

SI

[dixieflatline]

Still there is a difference between $500 and $400 I agree that anything over $500 would be crazy but I think if it starts out to $400 a lot more people here would be happy.

[sterlingice]

Still there is a difference between $500 and $400 I agree that anything over $500 would be crazy but I think if it starts out to $400 a lot more people here would be happy.

That's all very true, but I'm sure Sony, as Microsoft did, will be carefull weighing how many they'd sell or if they'd rather have $100 per unit. Even with just a million units sold the first year, that's a $100M dollar difference and they'll likely sell more than that.

SI

[TazFTW]

November 17, with a 20GB hard drive for $499. With a 60GB hard drive it'll cost $599.

[KWhit]

Source?

[TazFTW]

Source?

http://www.gamespot.com/e3/e3story.html?sid=6149470

[DaddyTorgo]

499? Damm..watch this thing el tanko

[ISiddiqui]

Yikes... by November, PS3 will be like $200 above the XBox 360 Premium (which is rumored to drop price by $100 in October)!

[KWhit]

Yeah, that's way too pricey, IMO.

[Eaglesfan27]

I'll wait until the price goes down to pick one up.

[Neuqua]

I'm very much anticipating this release. I don't know if I am going to get it myself, but I want to see what kind of numbers it pulls in from others.

[Easy Mac]

No force feedback for the controllers, it messes up their sensors. I don't really care, I find that annoying anyway, but still.

[kingnebwsu]

Wild stuff...seems like they're copying off of Nintendo's motion sensors...also M$'s trigger button, the Xbox "Ring of Light" button on the controller and the whole Xbox Live Marketplace thing.

I bet Sony still ends up #1, but the $500 price tag is wild stuff...for the cheaper model! Hopefully I can resist the urge to get it, cuz that's a lotta $$$.

Can't wait til Nintendo's and M$'s conferences tomorrow! :)

[wade moore]

Sony just pushes me closer and closer to M$...

[SackAttack]

Just got back from the press event.

Some wild stuff. I'll have impressions going up on Gamenikki tonight.

[stevew]

100 bucks extra for just having a larger hard drive seems silly. Unless it works like a TIVO or something.

[SackAttack]

Early impressions are up. (http://www.gamenikki.com/g3/features/Josh.php?id=4)

And good God, as early as I have to be up to get to the Nintendo press conference, I had no intention of writing seven pages. Jesus.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

100 bucks extra for just having a larger hard drive seems silly. Unless it works like a TIVO or something.

FYI.....the hard drive is not the only difference between the two units. There's actually a lot of differences.....

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3150521

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Early impressions are up. (http://www.gamenikki.com/g3/features/Josh.php?id=4)

And good God, as early as I have to be up to get to the Nintendo press conference, I had no intention of writing seven pages. Jesus.

It appears that the gamenikki site is a mess. Even the basic site gets mySQL errors all over the place.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, Gamenikki's having issues this morning. Our web guy has called the server guy and they're trying to get things sorted out.

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Anyone else personally not affected by the slight rise in price (another site had said 399 and 499 a couple of weeks ago)? I would say that the $499 system is an absolute farce because, much like the core Xbox 360 system, it's missing a lot of things that the gamers will really want to have if they're going to buy a system. The fact that the PS3 has a Blu-ray player in it makes it a no-brainer buy for me. A stand-alone Blu-Ray player on Amazon right now is $900-1,000. You can get the gaming system and a Blu-Ray player for $600.

I would say that a recent article on the general gaming population might have a lot to do with what Sony is doing here. Research indicated that the average gamer is now 31 years of age and that 4 in 10 adults play games at least 3 times a week. It's pretty obvious that Sony is targeting the older gamer who likes to buy the tech toys (HD TV's, Surround sound systems, HD DVD equipment, etc.). It may scare off some of the younger players that are a bit more price conscious, but I think that Sony is generally making a good decision for long-term success. For those that can't handle the initial price point, there will obviously be a drop in the near future where they can then grab a PS3 of their own.

[wade moore]

Anyone else personally not affected by the slight rise in price (another site had said 399 and 499 a couple of weeks ago)? I would say that the $499 system is an absolute farce because, much like the core Xbox 360 system, it's missing a lot of things that the gamers will really want to have if they're going to buy a system. The fact that the PS3 has a Blu-ray player in it makes it a no-brainer buy for me. A stand-alone Blu-Ray player on Amazon right now is $900-1,000. You can get the gaming system and a Blu-Ray player for $600.

I would say that a recent article on the general gaming population might have a lot to do with what Sony is doing here. Research indicated that the average gamer is now 31 years of age and that 4 in 10 adults play games at least 3 times a week. It's pretty obvious that Sony is targeting the older gamer who likes to buy the tech toys (HD TV's, Surround sound systems, HD DVD equipment, etc.). It may scare off some of the younger players that are a bit more price conscious, but I think that Sony is generally making a good decision for long-term success. For those that can't handle the initial price point, there will obviously be a drop in the near future where they can then grab a PS3 of their own.

This whole.. "it's cheaper than a normal blu-ray sytem" argument doesn't float with me... Because what do I care? I'm not buying a Blu-Ray unit while it costs that much anyways...

[KWhit]

This whole.. "it's cheaper than a normal blu-ray sytem" argument doesn't float with me... Because what do I care? I'm not buying a Blu-Ray unit while it costs that much anyways...

Yep. Same here. And it's not like you're going to have many Blu-Ray movies to choose from any time soon.

[Anthony]

This whole.. "it's cheaper than a normal blu-ray sytem" argument doesn't float with me... Because what do I care? I'm not buying a Blu-Ray unit while it costs that much anyways...

exactly. they assume that my wanting a Blu Ray device would play a factor in purchasing a next gen system, which in relaity it plays absolutely no factor at all. i don't even own a HDTV, why would i consider purchasing a standalone $900 device? i'd rather spend an extra $1K on getting that much of a bigger high end tv than to get a blu ray device. i'll wait until the chinese can make them for $200.

[TroyF]

As I said earlier, they are going ot need to come up with something special now. They need their early gen games to come out smoking. Top tier games are going to have to sell this system.

The 360 had a few nice release titles. They were varied and even though there wasn't a system seller among them, they had some nice stuff. The PS3 isn't going to be afforded the same luxury IMHO. They are going to need a couple of system selling type releases from day one, or like eaglesfan27, people are going to wait for a price drop.

Even if I wanted to get the system on day one this time, I'm not sure how I'd pull it off. With at least one holiday trip planned, Christmas gifts to buy and a house payment by that time (I'm looking now), I see no way I'm going to have a grand to blow by the time I get done with the system, some extras for it and a couple of games.

This is looking like next February at the earliest for me.

[wade moore]

exactly. they assume that my wanting a Blu Ray device would play a factor in purchasing a next gen system, which in relaity it plays absolutely no factor at all. i don't even own a HDTV, why would i consider purchasing a standalone $900 device? i'd rather spend an extra $1K on getting that much of a bigger high end tv than to get a blu ray device. i'll wait until the chinese can make them for $200.

DING DING DING! We have a winner!

I'm curious to see how this marketing scheme goes, but I don't think I'll get a 360 until the price comes down, let alone the PS3 at this price...

And I have traditionally been a purchaser of my "system of choice" (in the past nintendo) near release...

[jbmagic]

Just wait for a multiplayer dvd that plays all formats HDdvd and blu-ray. I am sure someone will make those too.

[SirFozzie]

Ouch. here's some reaction to the PS3 unveiling..

Jetlag means I'm not entirely sure what day it is, but what was Sony's excuse? Today's conference was a muddled mess that essentially confirmed widespread rumours of a problematic PS3 launch build-up. The games shown were of varying quality, with perhaps only Heavenly Sword really showing the undoubted potential of the PS3 ... Sadly, on today's evidence, 360 owners shouldn't worry about missing out, as the PS3's visuals seem broadly similar to their machine. Impressive then, but not the leap we had truly hoped for.

and

"This just made Microsoft's $299 Core Pack look like a genius idea. At least it's possible to upgrade an Xbox Core. I don't know what kind of arcane magick will have to be executed to give a crippled PS3 actual functionality."

[Eaglesfan27]

Yep. Same here. And it's not like you're going to have many Blu-Ray movies to choose from any time soon.



Exactly. If I thought there were many Blu-Ray Movies coming out that I actually want, I'd be more tempted to buy the PS3. However, I realize that the movies are going to be limited for a significant amount of time.

[spleen1015]

Hopefully I'll be able to get it at launch.

[dixieflatline]

Early impressions are up. (http://www.gamenikki.com/g3/features/Josh.php?id=4)

And good God, as early as I have to be up to get to the Nintendo press conference, I had no intention of writing seven pages. Jesus.

Very nice write up Sack. Did they spend any time talking about either the linux operating system that is supposedly going to come preinstalled or things like video editing? They seemed to be pushing things like that in previous press releases and interviews so I'm curious if they have just decided to go back to basics and push how great the game system will be.

[stevew]

Wow, that 499 dollar system sounds stupid.

[MizzouRah]

At first, I thought I was a shoe-in for the ps3, now the 360 does look much better (price wise). I'm going to wait on either of them as I'm really not in the market for one as it stands now.

[Kodos]

It appears that the gamenikki site is a mess. Even the basic site gets mySQL errors all over the place.

Nice article, Josh. :) Hope you're having a good time out there.

[Kodos]

I think I may wait for an Xbox 360 price drop. And $600 is a lot to cough up for a system. I may have to not be a 1st wave adopter this time around...

[stevew]

That's a good article, Josh, now that it's not all MySQL gobbedly gook. Have fun playing with your Wii.

[terpkristin]

Today's (5/9/06) Little Gamers had a nice take on the price...and the logo...

http://www.little-gamers.com/

/tk

[General Mike]

I wasn't gonna buy one at launch anyway, so none of this news really affects me. I will still long term buy a PS3 over an XBox 360, but not til there is a real killer app.

Sony is genius tho. They will sell as many systems as they put out at launch, and then for the next 6 months at any price point they want.

[TroyF]

I wasn't gonna buy one at launch anyway, so none of this news really affects me. I will still long term buy a PS3 over an XBox 360, but not til there is a real killer app.

Sony is genius tho. They will sell as many systems as they put out at launch, and then for the next 6 months at any price point they want.


16 months ago I would have agreed with you 100%. Sony had a dominating edge long term over Microsoft. They had a bigger foothold in the market and the people who were only going to buy one next gen console would certainly wait for the PS3. It was a no brainer.

Now I wouldn't call Sony brilliant at all. They have a 500 dollar system that's crippled. The 600 dollar system has some nice features, but the price point is over the top. We are talking 200 bucks over an Xbox360.

And here is the thing. I've met very few Xbox360 owners who don't like the system. I love how LIVE works. I love the controller (the best controller I've ever played a game with, hands down) By the time Sony releases their system, the 360 is going to be fully in with it's second or third wave of games.

I went from being a guy who would buy both consoles without a second thought to being really on the fence with the PS3. When we start looking at about a grand to purchase the system (an extra controller, online fees, a couple of games, another accessory or two), I have to seriously think about what I'm doing.

As of now, I'm thinking I'ld be better off doing a PC upgrade at that time. I've seen nothing at this point to think the PS3 will be better than the 360 in anything other than Blu-Ray, which is not a big selling point for me.

I'll wait for the PS3 until spring at the earliest, maybe further down the road. I think Sony made a MAJOR miscalculation here and that Microsoft will take over #1 in the console market.

[Deattribution]

It'll sell everyone they produce for atleast a good 4-5 months - people were paying 1-2 grand for Xbox360's early on, so I doubt they're going to finch at a couple hundred more dollars.

Anyone who is cautious over the price just frees up another spot for someone else to grab one, that's about all. And it has nothing to do with how great the system is, it's just how people make purchases.

[General Mike]

It'll sell everyone they produce for atleast a good 4-5 months - people were paying 1-2 grand for Xbox360's early on, so I doubt they're going to finch at a couple hundred more dollars.

Anyone who is cautious over the price just frees up another spot for someone else to grab one, that's about all. And it has nothing to do with how great the system is, it's just how people make purchases.

Yep. If they can sell a million units at $500 a pop before they have to cut prices they are in good shape. It's not like there will be a killer app out for a year.

[stevew]

So at 600 bucks for pre-order, I think I may try to get one just to re-sell.

[Eaglesfan27]

16 months ago I would have agreed with you 100%. Sony had a dominating edge long term over Microsoft. They had a bigger foothold in the market and the people who were only going to buy one next gen console would certainly wait for the PS3. It was a no brainer.

Now I wouldn't call Sony brilliant at all. They have a 500 dollar system that's crippled. The 600 dollar system has some nice features, but the price point is over the top. We are talking 200 bucks over an Xbox360.

And here is the thing. I've met very few Xbox360 owners who don't like the system. I love how LIVE works. I love the controller (the best controller I've ever played a game with, hands down) By the time Sony releases their system, the 360 is going to be fully in with it's second or third wave of games.

I went from being a guy who would buy both consoles without a second thought to being really on the fence with the PS3. When we start looking at about a grand to purchase the system (an extra controller, online fees, a couple of games, another accessory or two), I have to seriously think about what I'm doing.

As of now, I'm thinking I'ld be better off doing a PC upgrade at that time. I've seen nothing at this point to think the PS3 will be better than the 360 in anything other than Blu-Ray, which is not a big selling point for me.

I'll wait for the PS3 until spring at the earliest, maybe further down the road. I think Sony made a MAJOR miscalculation here and that Microsoft will take over #1 in the console market.

I agree with all of this. A year ago, I thought I would get both systems at launch. Not anymore.

[WVUFAN]

To me, I stay away from XBox/XBox 360 because it seems like a majority of the games are FPS (which I LOATHE on consoles), whereas the PS2/PS3 appeals to more the fantasy/typical RPG fan. So, I'll be picking up the PS3 when it comes out -- the Blu-Ray allows for more room to put in content than the 360, and the games for the PS3 appeal more to me.

[SackAttack]

Thanks for the kind words from all who read my opus magnus.

I'm working on impressions of the Nintendo and Microsoft conferences as we speak.

I'm not sure precisely how I feel about each company's performance, other than Nintendo just absolutely knocking my socks off.

I think Sony needs a strong Wed-Fri showing to make up for their Monday blunder, though.

[ShaefIllini]

Thanks for the kind words from all who read my opus magnus.

Yes, I am always impressed by Gamenikki's content and above-average to excellent writing. That Shaeffer guy needed to get his ass out to Cali for E3 though.

[ShaefIllini]

dola:

The Sony pricing scheme is ridiculous. I thought 500 was the absolute MAX they could come out at, and then they offer a half-ass version of the PS3 at that price point. It sounds like Nintendo and Microsoft really showed something, while Sony spent most of its time making fun of the other two.

[Vince]

Thanks for the kind words from all who read my opus magnus.

I'm working on impressions of the Nintendo and Microsoft conferences as we speak.

I'm not sure precisely how I feel about each company's performance, other than Nintendo just absolutely knocking my socks off.

I think Sony needs a strong Wed-Fri showing to make up for their Monday blunder, though.

Reading through your piece, the first few pages I'm reading it like "Jeez, Sony sounds like they've completely shot themselves in the foot with this one." The Price point might have done that by itself, but the features they are cutting out, the complete copy job on TONS of features seemed to be really killing it.

Then I started to think about it, though, and if they can nail the release, and have all the things they are including working WELL, that it might be a pretty well-done job.

Then I start to think about how much it's going to cost again, and I shudder.

[SackAttack]

Reading through your piece, the first few pages I'm reading it like "Jeez, Sony sounds like they've completely shot themselves in the foot with this one." The Price point might have done that by itself, but the features they are cutting out, the complete copy job on TONS of features seemed to be really killing it.

Then I started to think about it, though, and if they can nail the release, and have all the things they are including working WELL, that it might be a pretty well-done job.

Then I start to think about how much it's going to cost again, and I shudder.

I think you really had to be there to see how it felt. Yeah, Sony is copying several features, but there was a palpable buzz in the building by the time they were ready to announce a price. When it displayed on the screen before they announced it, there was...not a gasp, exactly, although I've heard people refer to it that way.

It was more of a collective "ewww" kind of shudder. The air just went out of the place. Totally deflated. Having messed with a few of the games, I'm liking how Sonic looks, but that's not a PS3 thing - that's a "Sega getting back to what made the franchise popular" thing.

I think SingStar is a cult hit in waiting...but I can't imagine ANYBODY spending $5-600 to take a flyer on that game. If Sony announces the PS3 at $300, the competition is dead in the water. Just, momentum gone. Even at $400, it's still a strong showing.

At $500 for a version that's not only stripped down, but has no ability to reacquire the lost functionality after POS (the 360 at least can add the hard drive and component video cables at any time)...Sony just dug themselves a hole on that one.

They need a strong showing the rest of the week to convince people that the price is worth it. Just calling it a "cheap Blu-Ray player" and beating the "It's PlayStation!" monkey drum isn't going to be enough to build the kind of momentum they need to stay on top.

There will still be people who want it so badly they'll pay the price, but I can't imagine anybody paying an eBay premium over $600 for the sake of having this console at Christmas.

[SackAttack]

http://www.gamenikki.com/g3/features/Josh.php?id=5

There's Nintendo's. A REALLY rough day means Microsoft's will be late, possibly post-show. Mea culpa.

[Bee]

I don't see the price making much difference. The XBOX 360 was selling for tons more than that on Ebay and all the retail stores went with those overpriced bundle packs and people sucked them up so fast Microsoft couldn't keep up. What will determine the success or failure of the PS3 is the quality of the games IMO.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I don't see the price making much difference. The XBOX 360 was selling for tons more than that on Ebay and all the retail stores went with those overpriced bundle packs and people sucked them up so fast Microsoft couldn't keep up. What will determine the success or failure of the PS3 is the quality of the games IMO.

Agreed. Thousands of Xbox 360 were flying off e-Bay for a 600-700 premium. In the end, if PS3 has some good launch games, it will sell just fine.

[gstelmack]

You're talking the hardcore folks. Which console do you think the average parent will be buying their kid for Christmas with the PS3 launch price where it is and a rumored 360 price drop that would make the 360 HALF the price of a PS3?

[Bee]

You're talking the hardcore folks. Which console do you think the average parent will be buying their kid for Christmas with the PS3 launch price where it is and a rumored 360 price drop that would make the 360 HALF the price of a PS3?

Whichever one the kid tells them to buy. It's the parents that were buying the XBOX 360s on Ebay for $1500, not hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers pre-order.

[Cuckoo]

There have been several people in this thread that have said the pricing does affect their decision. It certainly affects mine as well. I'm not sure I can believe it won't make a pretty large difference for Sony.

That said, Sony isn't run by idiots. I'm sure they know what they're doing, and they likely project that any losses they suffer from folks like me will be more than offset by the higher price and the eventual gain in market share for Blu-Ray.

[Celeval]

We (I) had been planning on trying to replace our PS2 with a PS3 in the early half of next year, but there's no way in hell I'm going to be able to convince my wife to spend $350-400 on a system. That means either XBox2 or a number of price drops on the PS3 before it hits our house.

[Raiders Army]

Whichever one the kid tells them to buy. It's the parents that were buying the XBOX 360s on Ebay for $1500, not hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers pre-order.
I would consider myself both a parent and a hardcore gamer. I did not pre-order and I don't buy whatever my kids tell me to buy. When it comes down to it, it's my money not my kids'.

[Bee]

There have been several people in this thread that have said the pricing does affect their decision. It certainly affects mine as well. I'm not sure I can believe it won't make a pretty large difference for Sony.

That said, Sony isn't run by idiots. I'm sure they know what they're doing, and they likely project that any losses they suffer from folks like me will be more than offset by the higher price and the eventual gain in market share for Blu-Ray.

There's definitely going to be people that balk at the price and they probably won't be early adopters of the system, but from what I've seen with the XBOX 360 I think there's enough demand to carry sales of the PS3 for a while. At some point there has to be a price drop and if there's high quality games available then those who passed at the higher price will pick one up. I just don't see an additional $200 being a major factor when there's plenty of people out there willing to spend whatever it takes to buy these things.

[Bee]

I would consider myself both a parent and a hardcore gamer. I did not pre-order and I don't buy whatever my kids tell me to buy. When it comes down to it, it's my money not my kids'.

umm..that's nice?

[Sweed]

My original plan was to buy on release if I could get one. This was expecting a price of $499 or less. I am not however going to take second best at that price.
I will now probably wait for the first price drop on the 60gb model. If it takes a year that's ok.

Of course there's always the possibility that I'll run across one sitting on a shelf next spring and won't be able to resist ;) I'll have it home, set up, and playing with the kids before the wife knows what hit her :D And by kids I mean I have one in high scool and one that will have to come home from college for the weekend to play.

In all seriousness though PS3 was going to be an almost instant purchase. With this price I do think I'll be patient and see how the reviews come out comparing it to what the 360 can do. Something I really hadn't anticipated doing at all.

[gstelmack]

I just don't see an additional $200 being a major factor when there's plenty of people out there willing to spend whatever it takes to buy these things.

If the rumored 360 price drop comes through, you're talking $300, which would be DOUBLE the price. We're not talking small change here, we're talking a 360 at $300 vs a PS3 at $600 (or a crippled version at $500). You're not talking the $50 here or there that have plagued previous console wars, you're instead talking about being able to pick up a pair of 360s for the price of a single PS3. But even if the price drop doesn't come through, you're still talking about a 1/3 difference in price. That's significant. People paid more for the 360 on E-Bay because it was the only next-gen game in town. For the PS3 launch, they'll have a choice between paying $600 in a store (or $1000+ on E-Bay if they have supply problems like Microsoft did) for a PS3, or $300-$400 for a 360 that does pretty much the same stuff.

Sony is banking that people will pay more for their name and to get a Blu-Ray player. Time will tell if they are right. I think they may be in for a rude shock. Remember that the PS2 had to keep price pacing with the Xbox and use price cuts to maintain its market share lead, yet Microsoft still sold a fair number of boxes. Now Microsoft has been handed the price war on a platter.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

You're talking the hardcore folks. Which console do you think the average parent will be buying their kid for Christmas with the PS3 launch price where it is and a rumored 360 price drop that would make the 360 HALF the price of a PS3?

Just to be clear, kids are not the ones buying these systems for the most part. The average gamer age right now is 31. 4 in 10 adults play video games on a regular basis. There are kids that do play games, but for the most part, those kids are going to be playing the systems that their parents bought for the parent's use, not the kid's use.

There will be people who decide to buy other systems like Wii for their kids, but they wouldn't have bought PS3 if it would have come out at $400 either.

[Bee]

If the rumored 360 price drop comes through, you're talking $300, which would be DOUBLE the price. We're not talking small change here, we're talking a 360 at $300 vs a PS3 at $600 (or a crippled version at $500). You're not talking the $50 here or there that have plagued previous console wars, you're instead talking about being able to pick up a pair of 360s for the price of a single PS3. But even if the price drop doesn't come through, you're still talking about a 1/3 difference in price. That's significant. People paid more for the 360 on E-Bay because it was the only next-gen game in town. For the PS3 launch, they'll have a choice between paying $600 in a store (or $1000+ on E-Bay if they have supply problems like Microsoft did) for a PS3, or $300-$400 for a 360 that does pretty much the same stuff.



That's all true for people who research these things and know the market. But there are tons of people out there that just buy what Little Jimmy wants and this year it'll be a PS3 because that's the new one, not last year's console. Those are the people that drive the EBay market and will be the ones that will support the PS3 in the early months IMO. Now, once the price drops (assuming it does) then it'll be the quality of the games that determine if people who passed at the higher price are willing to get one.

[SirFozzie]

Remember, this is just one side of the console war. Japan, the Xbox360 seems to have ZERO penetration. Sony will live and die with how it goes there

[Bee]

Just to be clear, kids are not the ones buying these systems for the most part. The average gamer age right now is 31. 4 in 10 adults play video games on a regular basis. There are kids that do play games, but for the most part, those kids are going to be playing the systems that their parents bought for the parent's use, not the kid's use.

There will be people who decide to buy other systems like Wii for their kids, but they wouldn't have bought PS3 if it would have come out at $400 either.

That's true as well. I think older games may flinch at the price but I've seen plenty of older gamers drop $500 on a video card...

[Samdari]

there are tons of people out there that just buy what Little Jimmy wants.

I actually don't think that's true if "what Jimmy wants" is $1500. That's what the typical family spends total.

[General Mike]

I actually don't think that's true if "what Jimmy wants" is $1500. That's what the typical family spends total.

You're still talking about less than 1% of the population buying the initial offering of PS3s if the 2 million units in the US figure is correct.

[Bee]

You're still talking about less than 1% of the population buying the initial offering of PS3s if the 2 million units in the US figure is correct.

Exactly, and we've already seen there's a lot of people out there willing to spend ths kind of money in the past. While I won't be one of the people buying a PS3 on release, I also don't expect Sony to notice my absence...

[oykib]

Remember, this is just one side of the console war. Japan, the Xbox360 seems to have ZERO penetration. Sony will live and die with how it goes there

I totally agree with this point. There's never been a shortage of these things here. You've been able to just walk up and get tham at any shop.

No Japanese market penetration means that there will be a dearth of RPGs, strategy games, racin games and fighting games. It also means that you can't count on suprise hits from the 360. Almost all their blockbusters will be the expected titles from the big North American or European publishers.

[TroyF]

The who buys what system thing is really not a concern.

Take out the hardcore gamers who will get both systems no matter what. Take out the PS fanboys (that's not an insult there, some people love their PS2, hate MS, and will buy whatever Sony throws at them). With just that, they have enough to see some units.

Those aren't the groups who determine who wins the console wars. That is just the base group. They may be powerful and they may be strong, but they aren't going to win you the war.

Sony is banking on the Blu-Ray giving them a one up on MS and that many people will purchase the PS3 for that. I think they are off base.

Sony lost me as an opening day purchase with this price point. Eagles27 as well. Speaking for myself, I was in the group that would purchase any new console without a seconds doubt or hesitation. I'm a member they could have counted on for their core group. Now I'm gone.

Now, maybe Eagles and I are the exceptions. Maybe Sony sells out for months and months and months. Maybe they hold their market share.

I see none of it happening. I think they are making a big mistake in thinking Blu-Ray will be a deciding factor. I think people sitting on the fence will choose the 360 or the Wii over the PS3 75-80% of the time. I even think that we may see spike in 360 sales short term because of this.

People who were holding off and waiting are likely to look at the price point and say "uh uh, no way" and head on over to Best Buy to grab a new 360 system.

Time will tell if I'm correct.

[ISiddiqui]

People who were holding off and waiting are likely to look at the price point and say "uh uh, no way" and head on over to Best Buy to grab a new 360 system.

*raises hand*

I did think X360 would be cheaper, but not$200-$300 cheaper. I don't make all that much money, so I can't justify buying a PS3 at that much greater of a price (and I don't need Blu-Ray either).

[spleen1015]

The price doesn't matter. They're still going to be a strong force in the market and they won't notice those who decide not to buy because of that price. Right now, I'm trying to figure if I will get one a launch not because of the price, but because I don't know if I am willing to put forth the effort to do it.

I went into an EB 2 Sundays ago and got added to their PS3 Pre-Order call list. I am 133 on their list, so 132 people that go to that EB will know that they are pre-selling them before I will. They're only going to get ~20 consoles on launch day. So, my chances of being one of those is pretty slim, I think. I could call them every day to ask, but that's not worth the effort to me right now.

Now the Wii? I am 6th on the call list. :)

[Bee]

The who buys what system thing is really not a concern.

Take out the hardcore gamers who will get both systems no matter what. Take out the PS fanboys (that's not an insult there, some people love their PS2, hate MS, and will buy whatever Sony throws at them). With just that, they have enough to see some units.

Those aren't the groups who determine who wins the console wars. That is just the base group. They may be powerful and they may be strong, but they aren't going to win you the war.

Sony is banking on the Blu-Ray giving them a one up on MS and that many people will purchase the PS3 for that. I think they are off base.

Sony lost me as an opening day purchase with this price point. Eagles27 as well. Speaking for myself, I was in the group that would purchase any new console without a seconds doubt or hesitation. I'm a member they could have counted on for their core group. Now I'm gone.

Now, maybe Eagles and I are the exceptions. Maybe Sony sells out for months and months and months. Maybe they hold their market share.

I see none of it happening. I think they are making a big mistake in thinking Blu-Ray will be a deciding factor. I think people sitting on the fence will choose the 360 or the Wii over the PS3 75-80% of the time. I even think that we may see spike in 360 sales short term because of this.

People who were holding off and waiting are likely to look at the price point and say "uh uh, no way" and head on over to Best Buy to grab a new 360 system.

Time will tell if I'm correct.

I agree that people like you (and most of us here) that have good knowledge of the market and feel the price is too high will pass on the initial release, I just don't think it's a large enough segment of the worldwide population for Sony to even notice. I also think most of us who pass initially will buy one once the price drops if there are high quality games available. Of course, like you said time will tell which way it goes.

[sabotai]

Agreed. Thousands of Xbox 360 were flying off e-Bay for a 600-700 premium. In the end, if PS3 has some good launch games, it will sell just fine.

Thousands? I'm sure Sony isn't worried about selling thousands of PS3's, they're worried about selling millions of them.

Not to mention that the XBox 360 was selling like that when it was the only game in town. That won't be true for the PS3. I have no doubt Sony will sell a 1-2 million PS3s. How many consoles sell in the first few months doesn't really matter all that much. (Even the Dreamcast sold well in it's first few months, and we all know what happened with that console) The success/failure of a console is determined by how well it continues to sell after the initial surge. When all of the PS3 nuts have their PS3s, and all of the XBox nuts have their XBox 360s, that's when the console war really begins.

If Sony doesn't bring their price down quick enough, a year or two from now, the average gamer who just wants to play the next-gen Madden he or she has been hearing about will pick up the cheaper console when they see the game looks exactly the same on both. And Microsoft will already have a $200 advantage on Sony when the PS3 launches.

[Gary Gorski]

I'm in the group that the price is going to drive me away from it. I don't buy a ton of games or spend a lot of time playing the console but I've had both PS1 and PS2 and never even thought about the XBox. I didn't even bother to pay any attention to what is going on with the 360 because I was getting the PS3. But at $600 - wow that is just too steep for me. I don't need a Blu-Ray player and I don't even have a HDTV yet. It doesn't sound like there is going to be much difference between the games that I would play anyways which is mainly sports games so right now I'm leaning towards looking for the MS price drop and going with the 360.

The only good thing about the pricing is that I can tell my wife what a deal the 360 is :D

[Bee]

The success/failure of a console is determined by how well it continues to sell after the initial surge. When all of the PS3 nuts have their PS3s, and all of the XBox nuts have their XBox 360s, that's when the console war really begins.


This is very true and I think it's far enough away that we really don't know what kind of price difference there's going to be between the various consoles or the impact of the Blu-Ray technology of the PS3 or the amount of content on Xbox Live, etc.

BTW, you forgot to include the Wii nuts. :D

[ISiddiqui]

I think a lot of people are severely underestimating the effect of such a higher price. Saying that a few people won't buy them so Sony won't notice is, IMO, sticking your head in the sand. The higher price is going to HURT Sony unless they quickly bring it down to around X360 levels. You have to appeal to the casual gamer, not the hardcore ones. Past console wars will show that the hardcore games will buy their company's console and then the various companies fight over those who aren't attached to one or the other.

Similar graphics + a far lower price is really going to elevate Microsoft in this round of the console wars. And remember, the initial price can't simply be seen in isolation. It is the starting off point... so Sony isn't going to say, ok, we sold to the hardcore fans, now we drop $200. Ain't going to happen that way. If anything they'll go down a $100 in a year, by which point I think the X360 has the dominant market share in the US (at least) by virtue of its lower price and 2nd, 3rd tier of games.

Perhaps Sony is banking on Blu-ray winning the next gen DVD wars, which may help them (but most people want stand alone DVD players, since they feel those do a far better job than one integrated with a console/PC), but if HD-DVD wins out, Sony is screwed even further with the PS3.

[dixieflatline]

Remember, this is just one side of the console war. Japan, the Xbox360 seems to have ZERO penetration. Sony will live and die with how it goes there
I completely agree that the PS3 will do much better in Japan than the xbox but Sony does have to worry about Nintendo there who is certainly going to eat up a good chunk of that market. Check out last weeks Japan sales:

Software - this week [total]
PS2 Winning Eleven 10 - 460,549 [NEW]
NDS Tetris DS - 218,099 [NEW]
NDS Brain Training 2 - 94,231 [2,051,864]
NDS Brain Training - 74,783 [2,052,782]
NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World - 56,860 [2,561,916]
PS2 Dragon Quest Shonen Yangus - 54,456 [181,958]
NDS English Training - 52,258 [938,729]
GBA Mother 3 - 50,923 [256,837]
NDS Naruto 4 - 38,236 [NEW]
NDS Pokemon Ranger 36,777 [427,418]

Hardware
DSL - 225,835 [1,222,381]
NDS - 42,695 [6,478,092]
PSP - 40,884 [3,365,889]
PS2 - 29,837 [22,266,971]
GBASP - 8,225 [15,617,506]
GBM - 5,034 [497,108]
X360 - 2,845 [114,391]
GCN - 1,126 [4,099,509]
GBA - 69 [??]
XBX - 29 [474,409]

The PS2 is still killing the Xbox360 in sales and the PSP is doing ok but Nintendo is kicking some butt for now. PSP sales this week are close to the DS but it isn't like they are dominating. Certainly when the PS3 comes out that will help but Sony does have competition in Japan.

[Deattribution]

Actually I think people who believe they're not going to sell are overreacting, this is a completely different age - people bought 5-6 Xbox360's and put them all on ebay, they create a market even if there isn't one because there are only so many ways you can get one and everyone is trying to make a quick buck.

If the Xbox360 can sell almost 5 million units without really any system defining games, and no Japan market, I doubt the PS3 is going to have any trouble hitting the 3-4 mark twice as fast when you consider the kind of support it will get in Japan and other foreign markets alone.

Hell, when ATI released their X800 series video cards about two years ago they were all in the $500-599 range, and they're just a video card only - they were backordered for months. People always like to have the latest and greatest toy, that's where alot of the Xbox360 purchases came from for 2000 dollar packages with games that were mediocre and still nothing to justify a purchase (IMO).

Again, anyone not buying one is just freeing up a space for someone else to buy one.

[dervack]

You're still talking about less than 1% of the population buying the initial offering of PS3s if the 2 million units in the US figure is correct.
It's 2 million for launch between US and Japan, I believe.

[Kodos]

Yep. I went from a sure buy as early as possible on the PS3 to probably waiting for the 360 price drop and then waiting for PS3 to reach around $400.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I really don't disagree with anyone that gives reasons as to why they won't be buying PS3's. They all have their own very good reasons. With that said, there are still a ton of people that will buy the system at any price point. From what I've heard, pre-sales of PS3's currently at most retailers are roughly 1/3 above what they had on the launch date for Xbox 360. It really doesn't matter whether people are buying them for personal use or resale. It all counts the same towards total sales count.

[sabotai]

BTW, you forgot to include the Wii nuts. :D

I thought we were talking about a console WAR, Bee. If you want to talk about the Canada of consoles, we can. :D

[Blade6119]

I really don't disagree with anyone that gives reasons as to why they won't be buying PS3's. They all have their own very good reasons. With that said, there are still a ton of people that will buy the system at any price point. From what I've heard, pre-sales of PS3's currently at most retailers are roughly 1/3 above what they had on the launch date for Xbox 360. It really doesn't matter whether people are buying them for personal use or resale. It all counts the same towards total sales count.
I didnt buy a 360 and still plan on getting a PS3, whether near launch or likely once a price drop comes...i think a lot depends on the lauch titles and what kind of reviews im hearing...it may be matter or circumstance and how well it does, as like thr 36o if their is no game to make me want the system then i wont be getting the system

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Speaking of pre-sales, does anyone have any experiences from the Xbox 360 release as to which retailers, online or local, seemed to get the best supply of systems and fill the most pre-sale orders the quickest? I know there were some retailers who didn't get some of the orders that were placed a couple of months before release filled until a few months after the 360 release.

[Bee]

I thought we were talking about a console WAR, Bee. If you want to talk about the Canada of consoles, we can. :D

I had no interest in the Revolution, then when they changed the name I thought they were idiots. Now I've pretty much decided to buy a Wii if for no other reason than all the stupid jokes I can get out of it. :D

[sabotai]

Just made my statement on what I thought about Sony's initial price of the PS3.

I'm now an owner of an XBox 360.

[SirFozzie]

I had no interest in the Revolution, then when they changed the name I thought they were idiots. Now I've pretty much decided to buy a Wii if for no other reason than all the stupid jokes I can get out of it. :D

buy two, so then you can show folks your Wii-Wii

Yeah.

I know.

Wrong.

But still had to be done.

[ISiddiqui]

Just made my statement on what I thought about Sony's initial price of the PS3.

I'm now an owner of an XBox 360.

And I don't think you'll be the only one who does that based on the price point.

[mtolson]

Do any of you think Sony is looking at supply and demand based on that happened when the PS2 and XBox 360 both came out. The demand was so high people were snapping them up and reselling them on Ebay for double the price easily. Sony stands to gain a lot more by selling it at a price point which will greatly limit the price a reseller can sell on Ebay for.

[ISiddiqui]

Do any of you think Sony is looking at supply and demand based on that happened when the PS2 and XBox 360 both came out. The demand was so high people were snapping them up and reselling them on Ebay for double the price easily. Sony stands to gain a lot more by selling it at a price point which will greatly limit the price a reseller can sell on Ebay for.

Problem is that the opening price restricts how far you can drop the price later without pissing off your fan base. You can't drop the price $200 after 4 months, say. Dropping it $100 after a year would probably be ok because the original purchasers think they got value that exceed the price drop.

[sterlingice]

The PS2 is still killing the Xbox360 in sales and the PSP is doing ok but Nintendo is kicking some butt for now. PSP sales this week are close to the DS but it isn't like they are dominating. Certainly when the PS3 comes out that will help but Sony does have competition in Japan.
Just wanted to point to those insane DS numbers from last week: over 250K if you combine the DS and the DS Lite (220K!). Now that's just pretty and there's no signs of it slowing down- they're just now starting to be able to keep a few on hand before they fly off shelves in a day or so.

Although they didn't have the magical 10,000:1 ratio they had the last two weeks with the original Xbox unless you add in the DS sales. Someone had a post at a gaming forum about how if you bought an Xbox 2 weeks ago, that made you somewhat of a minor celebrity as only 14 sold in the entire country :D

SI

[SirFozzie]

ouch: Look at Microsoft teaming up with Nintendo to poke fun at the PS3 price :)

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=technologyNews&storyID=2006-05-11T132519Z_01_N10243836_RTRUKOC_0_US-EXPO-MICROSOFT.xml

[Eaglesfan27]

Very smart comments.

[stevew]

So when is the Wii SKU coming out, and how much does it cost? I want to pre-order one.

Man, that Red Steel trailer looks sweet.

hxxp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5481335368476915030&q=wii

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

ouch: Look at Microsoft teaming up with Nintendo to poke fun at the PS3 price :)

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=technologyNews&storyID=2006-05-11T132519Z_01_N10243836_RTRUKOC_0_US-EXPO-MICROSOFT.xml

Definitely a good idea for Nintendo to use this type of a strategy to try to get more switchovers in the Japanese market from Sony to Nintendo. MS is not a competitor in Japan although they do have a very small piece of the market.

I'm not sure where Microsoft is coming from at this point. Sony has a large advantage over them in current-gen systems. As far as next gen, Microsoft was right to release early, but due to the lack of many 'system selling' titles, they haven't really taken advantage of the early start. If PS3 has similar problems with their early titles, they MS does have an advantage. But at this point, MS probably needs to look in the mirror and quit worrying about other consoles. If they would have put out better titles up to this point, they would most likely be in a position to dominate the market after the E3 developments. Instead, they will be lucky to increase their presence in the US market to 30%. Probably not what they had in mind I would guess given their head start. It certainly is a increase in market share, but will still most likely allow Sony to maintain at least a 50% share in the US market.

[spleen1015]

I don't care who the #1 console is on the market. I just want to see good games. I'm stupid enough to buy 3 systems just for the games.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I don't care who the #1 console is on the market. I just want to see good games. I'm stupid enough to buy 3 systems just for the games.

Exactly my point. Microsoft has really squandered this one year advantage that they gave themselves. The release games and current games are under par for what was promised for this system out of the gates. Good games sell the system and Microsoft has now allowed both Wii and PS3 to get a shot at holding some of the market share that they should have taken away already.

You don't want to win an economic/marketing battle by pointing out weaknesses in competing products unless your selling something like paper towels. Rather, you want to show why your product is the best one available.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Also, in regards to marketing, Nintendo should take full advantage of the situation and market it system as a family/kids system at a low price point. Sony has put its price point at a position to allow someone to develop a low cost system (like Wii) as an alternative. If Wii makes sure to stick with its roots with games based on franchises like Mario, Donkey Kong, Zelda, etc., it would put Microsoft in an extreme bind. Microsoft would then be too expensive as a low-cost alternative, losing customers to Nintendo. MS would also be stuck in a position where it is working with older technology to the point where the tech geeks and adult gamers would go with the better technology. Obviously, Sony needs to get some excellent games to show that technology off, but if they do, MS is in quite a pickle being neither a tech savvy or low cost alternative.

[Raiders Army]

The problem with Sony is that they're banking on the Blu-Ray too hard. I hardly believe that DVD is obsolete. What advantages does Blu-Ray have over DVD other that more memory size and HDTV?

To counter both, HDTV is something that is not widespread. I don't see it being widespread until another 3-5 years. More memory should produce better games, but I doubt we'll see that 3-5 years from now.

Microsoft is supposedly coming out with a HD-DVD drive that connects via USB. They also have huge issues as well, like copy-protection, etc.

I just don't think most people are going to buy it for Blu-Ray.

[dixieflatline]

What advantages does Blu-Ray have over DVD other that more memory size and HDTV?
I just don't think most people are going to buy it for Blu-Ray.
I agree that many people won't buy it for the blu-ray drive but once it is in the house maybe you will buy a blu-ray movie when it comes out. At least that is how I understand their current plan. The memory size is a large increase, probably not needed now, but something that could be useful for games in a year from now. And don't discount the HDTV thing. The people that have HDTVs are probably much more likely to buy a game system. And when it comes to buying a game system maybe the PS3 makes sense.

[Deattribution]

The problem with Sony is that they're banking on the Blu-Ray too hard. I hardly believe that DVD is obsolete. What advantages does Blu-Ray have over DVD other that more memory size and HDTV?

To counter both, HDTV is something that is not widespread. I don't see it being widespread until another 3-5 years. More memory should produce better games, but I doubt we'll see that 3-5 years from now.

Microsoft is supposedly coming out with a HD-DVD drive that connects via USB. They also have huge issues as well, like copy-protection, etc.

I just don't think most people are going to buy it for Blu-Ray.

It's not just 'more memory' (it's actually disc space but I get your point) but it's essentially a harddrive on a disc. You are talking about jumping from single layer dvd at 4 gb, dual layer at 9gb to blu-ray at 50gb. That's the size of alot of peoples harddrives on their computers.

It's also not the only thing theyre banking on, really they are banking on foreign market and branding more than anything. Playstation is the stronger brand then say Xbox, evident by the fact that 102 million PS2 units have been sold, not mentioning how many PS1 systems.

But as stated earlier, it comes down to software, and right now Xbox360 doesn't have a sizable lead. PS3 could come out with say a new Final Fantasy at launch and have one more system defining game than Xbox 360 has in 8 months of release.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

It's also not the only thing theyre banking on, really they are banking on foreign market and branding more than anything. Playstation is the stronger brand then say Xbox, evident by the fact that 102 million PS2 units have been sold, not mentioning how many PS1 systems.

Another announcement that I don't think has been brought up in this discussion is the fact that the PS3's in Japan and the PS3's in the U.S. will no longer be incompatible. Sony announced that the U.S. and the Japanese PS3's will both be able to play the same games. So U.S. gamers can play Japanese PS3 games and vice versa. While that doesn't affect the majority of us, there is a large group of gamers that used mod chips in the old system to play foreign games or like anime-themed games. This would seem to be a big selling point for that niche of gamers.

[ISiddiqui]

PS3 could come out with say a new Final Fantasy at launch and have one more system defining game than Xbox 360 has in 8 months of release.

Are you the only person in America who hasn't heard of Oblivion? ;)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Are you the only person in America who hasn't heard of Oblivion? ;)

Obviously a very good game, but probably shouldn't be considered a 'system seller'. It's also out on PC and my understanding is that it's selling quite well on the PC. In the case of Oblivion, many of those RPG gamers already have a system that will run that game.

To some extent, this is a perfect example of why the portability between the PC and the Xbox that Microsoft uses isn't necessarily a good thing. It makes it easier on developers, but people aren't going to run out and get a system that runs many of the exact same games on the PC with just as good graphics.

[Deattribution]

Are you the only person in America who hasn't heard of Oblivion? ;)

I feel bad for anyone who bought the Xbox 360 version of Oblivion, the user-created mods make the experience a 1000 times better, not to mention more balanced. It is in no way a system defining game.

I understand the people who don't have the systems to run the game on their pc, but they are really missing out.

[ISiddiqui]

Oblivions sales have mostly come on the X360. It may be selling well on the PC, but the numbers are far greater on the X360.

[Deattribution]

dola

And that's just not to make a knock on the 360 - it was the same exact case with Morrowind - a great game but so much better on the PC because of the community.

[Deattribution]

Oblivions sales have mostly come on the X360. It may be selling well on the PC, but the numbers are far greater on the X360.

Still anyone with a pc to run the game well would have no reason to buy the 360 version vs the PC version.

[dawgfan]

It's not just 'more memory' (it's actually disc space but I get your point) but it's essentially a harddrive on a disc. You are talking about jumping from single layer dvd at 4 gb, dual layer at 9gb to blu-ray at 50gb. That's the size of alot of peoples harddrives on their computers.
It should be noted that very few games butt up against the disk space limits of the DVD format. Unless your game has a shit-ton of pre-rendered scenes or other video, and/or a ton of audio content, most games fit comfortably on a DVD. Actual in-game content - models, textures, animation, code - is relatively small from a disk space point of view.

As for regarding the Blu-Ray as a hard drive on a disk - maybe access speeds have improved with Blu-Ray over the current DVD format, but right now game companies can't really use content off the DVD in the same way they can content off the hard drive - the access speeds are faster off the hard drive, so the preference is to load streaming content off the disk and on to the hard drive, then stream content as needed from the hard drive. Streaming directly off the DVD and into RAM is not as fast - at least, that's the impression I've always been given by our programmers.

But as stated earlier, it comes down to software, and right now Xbox360 doesn't have a sizable lead. PS3 could come out with say a new Final Fantasy at launch and have one more system defining game than Xbox 360 has in 8 months of release.
I would agree that MS has not fully taken advantage of their head start by not having a "system seller" kind of game like Halo was for the Xbox. That said, they still have time to rectify that mistake. With the announcement of the price point on the PS3, a lot of people that were waiting for it are now going to reconsider and start looking more closely at the 360. If MS fails to launch a few kick-ass games in the next few months, then I would agree they will have pissed-away most of their early launch advantage.

If it were me, I would've increased Bungie's head count by at least 50% and started simultaneous development cycles to ensure that even while Halo 2 was in later stages of development that Halo 3 development for the 360 was already underway and would be ready at or shortly after the launch of the 360. I know MS liked the idea of having Halo 3 as their ace-in-the-hole to counter the hype of the PS3 launching a year later, but I think they would've been better served to have Halo 3 ready sooner to really push early sales of the 360.

All that said, 360's have been selling about as fast as they arrive on shelves, so the lack of a "system-seller" game hasn't yet hurt them. They'd better hope though that the slate of games coming out soon keep the demand high.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Oblivions sales have mostly come on the X360. It may be selling well on the PC, but the numbers are far greater on the X360.

Once again, agree that it has sold more on X360, but it hasn't been a system seller by any means. Haven't seen official numbers in the breakdown because Microsoft tends to send out their press releases with the 'Oblivion has sold 1.7 million units on the PC and X360 combined' type statements rather than just saying they sold 1 million for X360 and 700,000 for the PC. I guess they figure the bigger number sounds better.

[ISiddiqui]

Well, as pointed out, it isn't like the X360 has been able to stay on the shelves until relatively recently (even then its mostly Core machines). Even without a system seller, they are doing very well. I'm sure they are disappointed that Halo 3 slipped to 2007, because it would have been quite a shot if released in November. Though Gears of War and other very impressive games are coming out for X360 soon. I think Gears of War can be the 'system seller' game you are looking for.

[Raiders Army]

I got cut off earlier, but wanted to revisit a little:

I see the PS3 going the way of the Turbo Grafix 16 or Sega CD. Both systems were (IMHO) too advanced for their time and were consequently too expensive. If Sony is trying to follow the model for an advanced system at a high price, they would be the first the break the mold. I'm not too optimistic at their chances.

[dawgfan]

I got cut off earlier, but wanted to revisit a little:

I see the PS3 going the way of the Turbo Grafix 16 or Sega CD. Both systems were (IMHO) too advanced for their time and were consequently too expensive. If Sony is trying to follow the model for an advanced system at a high price, they would be the first the break the mold. I'm not too optimistic at their chances.
I highly doubt the PS3 will be a catastrophic failure like those 2 systems were. Sony may concede significant market share to MS and Nintendo in this console round, but they have a tremendous amount of share to give back given their current dominance. The lineup of games that will be exclusive to the PS3 or debut there first will keep Sony right in the middle of things, as well as their huge foothold in Japan.

[stevew]

At least they've given forewarning of how much it costs, 6 months ahead of time. Most people who planned on or hoped to get one would probably have been budgeting at least 600 bucks for the launch and some accessories. To add an extra 200 or so to that amount, especially this far out, is not impossible to do. It's basically adding an extra 10-15 bucks a week from here on out to the amount you were saving for it.

Although I realize that most people aren't going to budget for this item, as the older gamer will probably have that much spare cash lying around, or just put it on a credit card.

[dawgfan]

The hardcore Sony people are going to buy the PS3 regardless of the $600 price point - that's a given. The question is what the less passionate gamers are going to do.

Personally, that price point makes it highly unlikely I'll buy a PS3 until very, very late in it's lifespan. I'm on board with Peter Moore - I'd rather buy a 360 and a Wii for the money I'd have to spend on a PS3.

[stevew]

The hardcore Sony people are going to buy the PS3 regardless of the $600 price point - that's a given. The question is what the less passionate gamers are going to do.

Personally, that price point makes it highly unlikely I'll buy a PS3 until very, very late in it's lifespan. I'm on board with Peter Moore - I'd rather buy a 360 and a Wii for the money I'd have to spend on a PS3.

yeah, I'm definately pre-ording the Wii and will put the x360 on my Xmas list.

[Daimyo]

I generally only buy consoles when they hit $150 or so. With this announcement I probably won't pick up a PS3 until the PS5 is released. :)

[sabotai]

I think Gears of War can be the 'system seller' game you are looking for.

Considering Cliff Bleszinski is the brain behind the game, it definately has the potential.

[General Mike]

If GTA4 has more than 6 months exclusivity on XBOX 360, that could be a system seller for me. :(

[SunDevil]

GTA4 is coming out at same time on both Xbox360 and PS3

[General Mike]

GTA4 is coming out at same time on both Xbox360 and PS3

Yeah, I just found out. That faggot from Microsoft confused the shit out of me yesterday on G4's coverage. F him.

[dawgfan]

Yeah, I just found out. That faggot from Microsoft confused the shit out of me yesterday on G4's coverage. F him.
:(

[General Mike]

sorry Dawgfan.

[ISiddiqui]

Shame on General Mike :(.

[TroyF]

Here is the thing, the same time release still hurts PS badly.

I kept the PS2 around for three main reasons:

1) The fact the GTA series was out months ahead of any other platform.
2) God of War
3) MLB: The Show

That's it. I think Forza is better than Turismo. I've never been a huge fan of the MGS series. I've been purchasing all of the sports sims on the Xbox or now the 360 because of the advantage the HD gives me.

If GTA4 were coming out on the PS3 months before the Xbox360, that may cause me to have purchased the system a little earlier. God of War has the potential to do that, but I'm not buying a 600 dollar system for one game. There would have to be a ton of other exclusive, must have games.

Sony was really hurt by E3 IMHO. I didn't see a lot of good that came from em. Before the show, my plans were to buy a PS3 on release, forget the Wii and hope the 360 showed me some nice things.

After it, the PS3 has been put off until Spring '07 at the earliest, Wii has jumped to an instant buy and I'm more happy than ever with the 360 and my LIVE subscription. I should be thanking Sony here. I'll likely put the 500 bucks I had earmarked for a PS3 to use on a high powered desktop this fall. I think I'll be happier with the purchase. :)

[ISiddiqui]

I also think E3 killed Sony. The high price was bad enough, but the Wii looked utterly amazing. And I think a lot of people will think on the Microsoft VP's comments and say, you know I'd like to get a Wii as well as a next gen console... maybe I'll get the 360 and Wii for the same price as a PS3.

[kingnebwsu]

Great strategery by M$ because (to them) they're competing with Sony for the #1 spot, not Nintendo. Anyone who buys a 360 and Wii instead of a PS3 will be diluting Sony's share of the marketplace. This previous generation was pretty unexciting from a competitive perspective (PS2 blew everything out and the Dreamcast died pretty early in the cycle). I think this generation will be much more entertaining to watch. We'll see what happens.

I still think it will be ranked Sony, M$, Nintendo in the next generation, but it will be a lot closer than the previous one.

[Deattribution]

I actually think Nintendo could come out with the biggest gain (not the lead) compared to previous gen systems. It is honestly the only system that I feel like I *have* to try, just to try the new interaction out - throw in the price and it's a no brainer if they release a few top notch titles.

[Bee]

I think this is a case where people are giving the average consumer way too much credit. I don't think the average consumer knows what E3 even is, let alone cares. I also don't think the average consumer will do a bunch of research to determine game release dates or what games are exclusives for the various systems. IMO, the average consumer will buy whatever is getting hyped in the mainstream media.

[TroyF]

I actually think Nintendo could come out with the biggest gain (not the lead) compared to previous gen systems. It is honestly the only system that I feel like I *have* to try, just to try the new interaction out - throw in the price and it's a no brainer if they release a few top notch titles.


Nintendo will make huge gains. They won't take the lead, but they will increase their market share by a large amount IMO.

[jeff061]

I think this is a case where people are giving the average consumer way too much credit. I don't think the average consumer knows what E3 even is, let alone cares. I also don't think the average consumer will do a bunch of research to determine game release dates or what games are exclusives for the various systems. IMO, the average consumer will buy whatever is getting hyped in the mainstream media.

Both the PS3 and 360 will be more or less equally hyped. One will cost $200 less.

[TroyF]

I think this is a case where people are giving the average consumer way too much credit. I don't think the average consumer knows what E3 even is, let alone cares. I also don't think the average consumer will do a bunch of research to determine game release dates or what games are exclusives for the various systems. IMO, the average consumer will buy whatever is getting hyped in the mainstream media.

Here is the problem with that Bee. . .

E3 is ALL about hype. These events are all had with getting a media buzz. It's not just me or the people on here who are saying Sony did horrific. Read Sack Attack's review of it and his replies in this thread.

While MS and Nintendo had people standing up and applauding, Sony had the press people sitting on their hands and shaking their heads. That means less stories hyping how good the system is and more negative press.

Now, you are right, the average joe doesn't give a damn about E3. My friend who purchased the 360 the other day didn't know E3 from Adam. He did know about a press release that talked about the price point of $600 and instantly decided his next gen console would be the 360. The average Joe will see the price point.

Sony has time to recover from this. They could surprise me down the road. Yet this show was horrible for them and that will impact their press.

[Bee]

Well the only non-internet coverage I've seen about E3 so far was on ABC and basically it said that Nintendo and Sony introduced their new consoles that should be out by the end of the year. Price wasn't mentioned and neither was any negative/positive reactions of the crowd.

[jeff061]

Price was mentioned, and if it's not mainstream now it certainly will when people go to the store.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Well the only non-internet coverage I've seen about E3 so far was on ABC and basically it said that Nintendo and Sony introduced their new consoles that should be out by the end of the year. Price wasn't mentioned and neither was any negative/positive reactions of the crowd.

You're exactly right. Most look at three things: name recognition, price and games. With Sony's extensive lead in the market, I'd be shocked if the 'doom and gloom' comes to pass. Sony may lose some of its lead in the form of less market share, but comparing the PS3 to Sega CD as someone did above is foolhardy at best. There's no denying that PS3 is an excellent system. It's just being sold at a high price point and there's no denying that will turn some people off.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Some concerning information involving the Wii. There are concerns amongst the gaming community that this allows an open connection that you may not necessarily want. Also, privately they are suggesting that Nintendo may use this to fight piracy by being able to disable certain portions of your system if they find any mods or illegal software. While I'm certainly not an endorser of piracy by any means, this appears to be a bad situation for the consumer in that they have no control over what is and is not brought into their gaming system. Wii gamers may have to literally unplug their gaming system to turn it 'off'.

From the official 'Wii' website:

Communication: Wii can communicate with the Internet even when the power is turned off. This WiiConnect24 service delivers a new surprise or game update, even if users do not play with Wii. Users can connect wirelessly using IEEE 802.11b/g, or with a USB 2.0 LAN adaptor. Wii also can communicate wirelessly with Nintendo DS.

[dixieflatline]

I just wanted to add a the latest data on game software in Japan. Check out Nintendo's dominance:

sys title - week [total]
NDS Tetris DS - 160,148 [378,247]
NDS Brain Training 2 - 112,392 [2,164,256]
PS2 World Soccer: Winning Eleven 10 - 100,860 [561,409]
NDS Brain Training - 84,075 [2,136,857]
NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World - 83,564 [2,645,481]
NDS Pokemon Ranger - 69,415 [496,834]
NDS English Training DS - 59,614 [998,343]
NDS Mario Kart DS - 37,037 [1,353,596]
GBA Mother 3 - 34,591 [291,428]
PS2 Dragon Quest: Yangus - 33,279 [215,237]

This would include PSP games but none made the top 10. The DS sales, specifically the DS lite, are also top of the list. I am sure that the PS3 will sell very well in Japan but Nintendo is far from dead.

[jeff061]

Yeah, I'm pretty happy with all the DS love. It's a great little handheld.

[oykib]

Speaking of Nintendo News:

Check out the Trump they pulled on Sony with Super Smash Bros. for the Wii:

SOLID (http://media.revolution.ign.com/media/748/748545/vids_1.html)

[spleen1015]

Speaking of Nintendo News:

Check out the Trump they pulled on Sony with Super Smash Bros. for the Wii:

SOLID (http://media.revolution.ign.com/media/748/748545/vids_1.html)

I don't get it...

[stevew]

Solid Snake is in the new Super Smash Brothers Brawl game.

[sterlingice]

Definitely a good idea for Nintendo to use this type of a strategy to try to get more switchovers in the Japanese market from Sony to Nintendo. MS is not a competitor in Japan although they do have a very small piece of the market.

I'm not sure where Microsoft is coming from at this point. Sony has a large advantage over them in current-gen systems. As far as next gen, Microsoft was right to release early, but due to the lack of many 'system selling' titles, they haven't really taken advantage of the early start. If PS3 has similar problems with their early titles, they MS does have an advantage. But at this point, MS probably needs to look in the mirror and quit worrying about other consoles. If they would have put out better titles up to this point, they would most likely be in a position to dominate the market after the E3 developments. Instead, they will be lucky to increase their presence in the US market to 30%. Probably not what they had in mind I would guess given their head start. It certainly is a increase in market share, but will still most likely allow Sony to maintain at least a 50% share in the US market.
To be fair, it wasn't Nintendo taking the swipes at Sony. That was all Moore trying to piggyback them.

As for Nintendo's strategy- this is what they've been preaching for over 2 years since talking about the DS. They've been talking up "blue ocean" business strategy- the idea that rather than squabbling over the same 25% of the market who buys video games now, try to attract the other 75%. Even if you steal 10% from a competitor in the video game market, that's just 2.5% of the overall market but if you go after a new audience, you can pull a lot more in general.

Nintendo's goal this gen is to become everyone's "second console" at a low price because if that happens, they've outsold either of the other two.

SI

[SackAttack]

What's funny is that Sony apparently responded by saying "What do you mean, people will buy a 360 and a Wii for the price of a PS3? They're going to buy a PS3 and Wii because they're made of money!"

[sterlingice]

Well, as pointed out, it isn't like the X360 has been able to stay on the shelves until relatively recently (even then its mostly Core machines). Even without a system seller, they are doing very well. I'm sure they are disappointed that Halo 3 slipped to 2007, because it would have been quite a shot if released in November. Though Gears of War and other very impressive games are coming out for X360 soon. I think Gears of War can be the 'system seller' game you are looking for.

I think this is a fact that people who are really taking the 500/600 price to heart are missing. Like the 360, no matter what price the PS3 came out at, it was going to sell all of the stock out in the first 6-9 months. Sony just has to make sure too many people aren't scared over to the X360 by the initial price and they figure they can steal them all back in the long run with superior hardware. Not only that but the dev cost for Blu Ray is going to come down significantly over the next year so they'll be losing significantly less per unit and be able to drop the price quite a bit or quite quickly when the time comes.

SI

[sterlingice]

Also, in regards to marketing, Nintendo should take full advantage of the situation and market it system as a family/kids system at a low price point. Sony has put its price point at a position to allow someone to develop a low cost system (like Wii) as an alternative. If Wii makes sure to stick with its roots with games based on franchises like Mario, Donkey Kong, Zelda, etc., it would put Microsoft in an extreme bind. Microsoft would then be too expensive as a low-cost alternative, losing customers to Nintendo. MS would also be stuck in a position where it is working with older technology to the point where the tech geeks and adult gamers would go with the better technology. Obviously, Sony needs to get some excellent games to show that technology off, but if they do, MS is in quite a pickle being neither a tech savvy or low cost alternative.

This really does encapsulate what baffles me about Microsoft this generation- they're the system without an identity. Last gen, they were the FPS/Sports/American RPG console which pulled in the overcompensation crow-- err... those folks who felt the need to have the biggest, baddest technical system even if the differences were not all that great. This gen, Sony took that away from them.

There is a market in the middle to be had, especially at the PS3's price, but it's going to be interesting to see how Microsoft tries to go after it.

SI

[sterlingice]

I got cut off earlier, but wanted to revisit a little:

I see the PS3 going the way of the Turbo Grafix 16 or Sega CD. Both systems were (IMHO) too advanced for their time and were consequently too expensive. If Sony is trying to follow the model for an advanced system at a high price, they would be the first the break the mold. I'm not too optimistic at their chances.

It's an interesting analogy. However, I think the gaming population has "grown up" so to speak and the median age of gamers at that time was much lower than it is now. With age comes spending power and I'd venture to say the average gamer has a lot more to spend these days, hence the emergence of a third system, for good or ill (that's another argument for another day). It's not that there are more gamers but there are more gamers buying 2nd and 3rd systems- there's more money per consumer to spread around (which sucks for those of us in the "poor gamer" category who can't afford to spread out our gaming dollars across multiple systems, but, again, I digress). So, there is the money out there to buy up lots of PS3's- but it's making gamers make harder choices about where to put their gaming dollars and there will likely be less 2 and 3 console owners this generation because of the higher prices, at least until later in the generation.

SI

[sterlingice]

Nintendo will make huge gains. They won't take the lead, but they will increase their market share by a large amount IMO.

I'm not quite sure how that works, tho. I have heard a lot of people with favorable impressions of Nintendo saying they'll do better this generation but sounding like they'll still be 3rd but not as distant a third.

So many people have this misconception about the number of Gamecubes sold versus Xboxes this generation. The number of XBoxes and Gamecubes worldwide are within a couple of million: last I checked, LTD numbers were something like 25M to 23M. It's not like the Xbox blew it away- just because the 19-35 demo preferred the Xbox doesn't mean Nintendo didn't do very well in markets like youngsters, parents, and Japan. I think people are blinded by NIMBY in this case- just because you and all your buddies didn't buy one doesn't mean they didn't sell.

SI

[TroyF]

I'm not quite sure how that works, tho. I have heard a lot of people with favorable impressions of Nintendo saying they'll do better this generation but sounding like they'll still be 3rd but not as distant a third.

So many people have this misconception about the number of Gamecubes sold versus Xboxes this generation. The number of XBoxes and Gamecubes worldwide are within a couple of million: last I checked, LTD numbers were something like 25M to 23M. It's not like the Xbox blew it away- just because the 19-35 demo preferred the Xbox doesn't mean Nintendo didn't do very well in markets like youngsters, parents, and Japan. I think people are blinded by NIMBY in this case- just because you and all your buddies didn't buy one doesn't mean they didn't sell.

SI


I know Gameboys sold a lot. But an MS victory (any type of victory) worldwide says something. Nintendo had name recognition and a better price point and MS sweeped in with try one and beat them. That says something.

I'm stunned more people can't see it. Sony is going to have problems with this generation, at least in the US and Europe. They may sell out the first shipment or two, but I'm not even fully convinced of that if the price point doesn't drop.

Even if they do, they are 8 million units or so behind MS by the end of the year. This at a time MS can make its first price drop and will be coming out with its second generations of games.

Sony will see their market share lead erode on this round of console wars, if it even keeps the lead after it's all said and done.

[SackAttack]

Troy, that also assumes they can ship 4 million worldwide by 12/31/06.

And that premise is bullshit so deep Godzilla's knee-high in it.

[dixieflatline]

So apparently my new thing is going to be posting monthly sales figures since now that we know how much the PS3 is going to cost I have to move on from that. Anyway, WTF is the american public thinking?


sys: April [total]
Xbox 360: 295,381 [1,504,724]
PlayStation 2: 206,995 [39,458,926]
Game Boy Advance: 169,115 [37,455,961]
PlayStation Portable: 162,438 [4,332,872]
Nintendo DS: 138,427 [4,447,092]
Xbox: 38,987 [15,737,984]
GameCube: 38,028 [12,046,319]


Ok so obviously the best selling system should be the Xbox 360 and that tops the list for April. From what I understand shortages of the Xbox 360 are basically finally over so this should represent the real demand for the system. Anyway, the real surprises here are the huge numbers for the PS2 and the GBA. The PS2 is less than half a year from being replaced and the GBA was already supposed to be replaced by the DS. Why are americans so willing to throw money at these old systems? Anyway, the PSP and the DS are basically neck and neck in total sales now which I also find interesting. This really makes me wonder if it would actually be in Sony's best interest in delaying the PS3 even further until the manufacturing price comes down.

[SackAttack]

Ok so obviously the best selling system should be the Xbox 360 and that tops the list for April. From what I understand shortages of the Xbox 360 are basically finally over so this should represent the real demand for the system.

The real seasonal demand, certainly. That isn't necessarily the demand we saw this past Christmas, nor what I'd expect to see when Gears of War and the other holiday titles come out this year.

Anyway, the real surprises here are the huge numbers for the PS2 and the GBA. The PS2 is less than half a year from being replaced and the GBA was already supposed to be replaced by the DS.

1) Were you paying attention at E3? PlayStation 2 had several AAA titles on display, including God of War II. It's a cheaper system, with cheaper games, and people can rationalize it by saying "I can play these games on my PS3 once the price drops." Between still-strong developer support and the cost factor, I'm not at all surprised that it continues to sell well. Moreover, while the PSone's support all but dried up within a year or two, I would expect the PS2 to continue to have strong software support well into the PS3 lifecycle, just because it's cheaper to develop for and at $499/$599 for the PS3, there will remain a sizeable portion of the market who won't have upgraded but will still want to play games.

2) The DS was never intended as the replacement for the GBA. That will be its own product line. The DS, I think, was intended more as a separate precursor to the Wii way of thinking, and had GBA cartridge support mostly because they realized that a significant portion of the DS early adopters would be GBA owners who didn't want to lug around two portable machines.

I don't think it's intended to be a long-term replacement (even though the development dollars have largely shifted to DS).

Why are americans so willing to throw money at these old systems? Anyway, the PSP and the DS are basically neck and neck in total sales now which I also find interesting. This really makes me wonder if it would actually be in Sony's best interest in delaying the PS3 even further until the manufacturing price comes down.

Because there's stuff they want to play, or the kids are pestering them for something, anything, now now now, and $129 sounds more attractive than $399 if it will shut the kids up.

As to the PSP and DS being neck-and-neck, those look like domestic numbers to me. It's not nearly as close on a global scale, but yeah, the American market has been swifter to embrace the PSP than the Japanese market has. Kinda like the 360, actually.

Also, remember that the DS Lite has yet to launch here. I'd be extremely interested to revisit the sales comparison between PSP and DS closer to Christmas and see if the DSL has enjoyed the same sales success domestically that it has in Japan, and whether the PSP is able to keep up.

[ISiddiqui]

I'm stunned more people can't see it. Sony is going to have problems with this generation, at least in the US and Europe. They may sell out the first shipment or two, but I'm not even fully convinced of that if the price point doesn't drop.

Even if they do, they are 8 million units or so behind MS by the end of the year. This at a time MS can make its first price drop and will be coming out with its second generations of games.

Sony will see their market share lead erode on this round of console wars, if it even keeps the lead after it's all said and done.

Spot on. I can't believe people can't see this either. Sony screwed the pooch this go around. They may indeed keep the lead, but it's going to be eroded significantly. Microsoft seems to have a long term plan for this. The XBox 1 was just to get their foot in the door, with no expectations of profitability. It only existed because of the XBox 360, which was released at the exact right time and at the exact right price point. 2nd gen games and a price drop are going to be released as the PS3 comes out.

Quite likely they already have gameplaned the release of their next console. They've taken away plenty of 'dominant' companies' marketshare in the past, so they are basically experts at this sort of thing.

[dixieflatline]

Clearly you know a lot more about this than I do. And when I say a lot that is being generous to me. Even with some nice titles out there I still am surprised by the PS2 sales. But I will go along with what you say about the price and shutting the kids up. I do have a question about one point though.


2) The DS was never intended as the replacement for the GBA. That will be its own product line. The DS, I think, was intended more as a separate precursor to the Wii way of thinking, and had GBA cartridge support mostly because they realized that a significant portion of the DS early adopters would be GBA owners who didn't want to lug around two portable machines.

I don't think it's intended to be a long-term replacement (even though the development dollars have largely shifted to DS).


It was my understanding that the DS was intended to be a replacement and that basically no new GBA games will be coming out. Add in the fact the the DS will play GBA games and I would think that most people would be going there with their money if they were going to go with Nintendo.

You are correct that those were only the US numbers as the DSlite is kicking butt right now Japan. I am not so sure how well it will do in the US but that will be something to watch as you pointed out.

[Daimyo]

I'm not surprised by the PS2 numbers at all. Didn't they just recently drop the price to $130? Not everyone buys consoles at release and I'm sure every price drop comes with some bump to sales.

I never purchased a PS2 (I bought GameCube and then Xbox when they each hit $150), but briefly considered it last week to try out the Square games I missed on and the karaoke games for my wife. I decided against it though when i thought a bit more and realized the Square games would probably just piss me off more than anything.

[sterlingice]

It was my understanding that the DS was intended to be a replacement and that basically no new GBA games will be coming out. Add in the fact the the DS will play GBA games and I would think that most people would be going there with their money if they were going to go with Nintendo.

You are correct that those were only the US numbers as the DSlite is kicking butt right now Japan. I am not so sure how well it will do in the US but that will be something to watch as you pointed out.

Originally, the DS was launched as a third tier for Nintendo to go alongside the Gamecube and GBA. As it is, GBA games have slowed to a trickle recently- there are some games, even some good quality ones in the GBA pipeline, but not much bulk as the majority of developers seem to have moved onto the DS. Reggie admitted at one point in the past few months that it has basically become two tiers again and that's led to speculation that the "three tier" thing they pushed really hard was just to keep people buying the GBA SP and later on the Micro. That said, there's also speculation that Nintendo is already hard at work developing the successor to the GBA. That said, it's all rumor and innuendo at this point.

The DSLite numbers out of Japan are positively insane. They're selling 150K-200K per week still and they just can't keep up with the demand despite it being out over 2 months.

SI

[SackAttack]

It was my understanding that the DS was intended to be a replacement and that basically no new GBA games will be coming out. Add in the fact the the DS will play GBA games and I would think that most people would be going there with their money if they were going to go with Nintendo.

Everything Nintendo has said publicly points to GBA getting its own successor later on. The biggest thing to point to is the fact that the DS (at least, the American version) was deliberately engineered such that it doesn't have GBC and GB compatibility. You have to actually modify that cartridge slot in order to play those games.

If it were the true GBA successor, why would they have built those ridges in to prevent players from playing those old games? They never have before.

[Raiders Army]

Not to beat the dead horse, but it occurred to me just now the type of people who were waiting in line to buy the PS2 and Xbox 360. I was definitely in the minority since I was buying it for myself. I would say that 75% of the people waiting in El Paso for the PS2 and in upstate NY for the 360 were buying it for their son or nephew. Just my documented evidence that the people who will buy the PS3 will buy it for their kids instead of themselves.

There was some wacky stuff too. This lady was waiting outside of Sam's Club to buy it for her sister so she could give it to her sister's son. That was pretty nice. There was also a dad who brought a portable DVD player and watched The Munsters. Ah, the good ole days...

[WVUFAN]

This whole PS3/XBox 360 thing reminds me of the Dreamcast/PS2 battle a number of years back. Dreamcast has a inferior system in terms of hardware, but many people were quoting the fact that the PS2 was more expensive and that the Dreamcast had nearly a years worth of titles available for it when the PS2 came out. This is very close to being just like that, and we all know who ultimately won that war.

People are gonna buy the PS3 is droves. Like the PS2, which was considered a high priced console for it's time, pundits are underestimating the Sony fans out there.

Personally, I wasn't enthralled with the X-Box, and I'm not planning on picking up the 360 -- there's no games I'm interested in, and the idea of the Blu-Ray having quite a bit more storage space for games tells me that in the long run longer and more complete games will be made for the PS3.

[ISiddiqui]

Dreamcast has a inferior system in terms of hardware, but many people were quoting the fact that the PS2 was more expensive and that the Dreamcast had nearly a years worth of titles available for it when the PS2 came out. This is very close to being just like that, and we all know who ultimately won that war.

Sorry, doesn't work. PS2 wasn't almost twice as expensive as the Dreamcast. Secondly, the Dreamcast did not sell as many systems in a year as the X360 will (and IIRC, there was never a shortage of Dreamcast systems out there). Third, the 'inferior system' may not be all that 'inferior' at all. E3 reports say that PS3 games don't look much better than X360 games at all. And Romero has said the Cell architechture of the PS3 chip is FAR harder to program for. Finally, no one expected Sega to be much of a player when the Dreamcast was released. Their last offerings were unimpressive. On the other hand, no one is saying Microsoft will go away or won't be a player in the market.

The PS3 is going to be Sony's Nintendo 64, IMO. It's their overreach and they'll pay for it.

[Raiders Army]

The other thing the PS2 had going for it was backwards compatibility which the Dreamcast did not.

[SackAttack]

Sorry, doesn't work. PS2 wasn't almost twice as expensive as the Dreamcast. Secondly, the Dreamcast did not sell as many systems in a year as the X360 will (and IIRC, there was never a shortage of Dreamcast systems out there). Third, the 'inferior system' may not be all that 'inferior' at all. E3 reports say that PS3 games don't look much better than X360 games at all. And Romero has said the Cell architechture of the PS3 chip is FAR harder to program for. Finally, no one expected Sega to be much of a player when the Dreamcast was released. Their last offerings were unimpressive. On the other hand, no one is saying Microsoft will go away or won't be a player in the market.

The PS3 is going to be Sony's Nintendo 64, IMO. It's their overreach and they'll pay for it.

There were also rumors and anecdotal reports of Sony strongarming their retail partners. "We want those Dreamcast displays taken down. By the way, we aren't sure when we can provide your next allocation." How true? I don't know. But there was a definite difference in demand for the two machines, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sony flexed their muscles at least a little bit.

Plus, Sega used to have the best advertising crew in the business before they had money problems, and I can't remember seeing but maybe one DC ad in the life of the console. Somehow, I don't think that'll be an issue for Microsoft.