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View Full Version : The Fruits of NAFTA


Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 10:00 AM
As I've said before, this has really become the focus of my political leanings and interest. I see Buchanan and Lou Dobbs as being in the forefront of this newly burgeoning 'movement.' And I think this crosses party lines. I think that as deficits rise, more jobs move elsewhere and the American middle class starts to go deeper into debt we may see this take hold. Dubai itself may have been the 'first shot,' as one of the cable channels pointed out that the only U.S. company capable of running the ports was an undersized family company because Americans had ceeded port management years ago. http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=49201

Crapshoot
03-10-2006, 10:12 AM
Dobbs, at one point, was a guy who understand basic economics and at least paid some tribute to logical thought - in the last 5 years, he's spotted a niche as a xenophobic, protectionist, and generally economic illiterare bore, and has gone along the way to fill it; as spokesmen go, you could do better.

st.cronin
03-10-2006, 10:13 AM
There really isn't anything like an ignorant economist.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 10:14 AM
Dobbs, at one point, was a guy who understand basic economics and at least paid some tribute to logical thought - in the last 5 years, he's spotted a niche as a xenophobic, protectionist, and generally economic illiterare bore, and has gone along the way to fill it; as spokesmen go, you could do better.

A Harvard educated economist. Seems like pretty good credentials to me.

cartman
03-10-2006, 10:23 AM
A Harvard educated economist. Seems like pretty good credentials to me.

Hillary went to Wellesley and Yale. Bill went to Georgetown, Oxford, and Yale. Seem like pretty good credentials to me as well.

Qwikshot
03-10-2006, 10:24 AM
I recall the Unabomber went to Harvard as well...

Warhammer
03-10-2006, 10:26 AM
NAFTA is actually good for the US. I have been involved with several companies that are US companies that have benefitted from NAFTA. I think the bigger problem is the India and China trade imbalances.

Part of the problem with our middle class though is we are not training ourselves to succeed. I'll use my wife as an example, she graduated with a degree in journalism. She got a job that paid peanuts, and only recently (6 years after she graduated), when she got a promotion at work to supervisor is she earning more than $30k per year. That was after a 30% raise! I was making over $30k with my first job out of college.

That is the bigger problem, the middle class is not producing people that are deemed "valuable" to companies, or they are not graduating from college with degrees that will give them a higher baseline to start their career.

In the 7 years since I have graduated college, I have double my take home pay, and am in a position to run the show where I work in a few years. Granted, its not going to be HUGE money, but I should eventually be able to hit 6 figures. However, compare this to where many people are working. Should the manager of an Outback, Mc Donald's, or Logan's make big money? Should a local newspaper writer make big money? Should the union factory worker get $70k a year?

The jobs we are losing are those union factory jobs where those guys SHOULDN'T be getting $70k a year. We are able to source those in Mexico, which lowers the cost of those products so that we are better able to afford them.

I think where we are losing our grip is in the realm of college education. I really don't think my college education was worth what I paid for it. In the case of my wife, it certainly wasn't worth the $24k that she put into it. I think the spiralling cost of a college education that far exceeds the rate of inflation is a concern. Once you are in debt and paying more than face value for that education, helps you to build even more debt.

We also need to be more fiscally responsible. Do you really need that $150 IPod? Do you REALLY need that new $500 computer? I understand house debt, and even car debt. But other than that, most other debts that the middle class incurs is due to our overspending. Therefore, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 10:49 AM
NAFTA is actually good for the US. I have been involved with several companies that are US companies that have benefitted from NAFTA. I think the bigger problem is the India and China trade imbalances.

Part of the problem with our middle class though is we are not training ourselves to succeed. I'll use my wife as an example, she graduated with a degree in journalism. She got a job that paid peanuts, and only recently (6 years after she graduated), when she got a promotion at work to supervisor is she earning more than $30k per year. That was after a 30% raise! I was making over $30k with my first job out of college.

That is the bigger problem, the middle class is not producing people that are deemed "valuable" to companies, or they are not graduating from college with degrees that will give them a higher baseline to start their career.

In the 7 years since I have graduated college, I have double my take home pay, and am in a position to run the show where I work in a few years. Granted, its not going to be HUGE money, but I should eventually be able to hit 6 figures. However, compare this to where many people are working. Should the manager of an Outback, Mc Donald's, or Logan's make big money? Should a local newspaper writer make big money? Should the union factory worker get $70k a year?

The jobs we are losing are those union factory jobs where those guys SHOULDN'T be getting $70k a year. We are able to source those in Mexico, which lowers the cost of those products so that we are better able to afford them.

I think where we are losing our grip is in the realm of college education. I really don't think my college education was worth what I paid for it. In the case of my wife, it certainly wasn't worth the $24k that she put into it. I think the spiralling cost of a college education that far exceeds the rate of inflation is a concern. Once you are in debt and paying more than face value for that education, helps you to build even more debt.

We also need to be more fiscally responsible. Do you really need that $150 IPod? Do you REALLY need that new $500 computer? I understand house debt, and even car debt. But other than that, most other debts that the middle class incurs is due to our overspending. Therefore, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

Well, we agree on that point, those running the colleges and university systems in the U.S. today are bigger con-men and rackateers that the Mafia. And they do it legally. But what you say does not begin to explain why those who did graduate with decent credentials in good-paying fields are being laid-off and downsized. And I speak specifically of engineers, those with Masters degrees in particular. If your exporting to other countries your business might be doing pretty good, for now. But all those 'high-speed graduates with worthwhile educations' your speak of used to begin careers in departments of many of those manufacturing companies now in Mexico. Where do they go now?

sabotai
03-10-2006, 10:50 AM
I recall the Unabomber went to Harvard as well...When he was 16.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 10:51 AM
Hillary went to Wellesley and Yale. Bill went to Georgetown, Oxford, and Yale. Seem like pretty good credentials to me as well.

Bill Clinton, to me, is the 'tracer round' of the Davos crowd. Just follow him and you'll get a pretty good idea of how were getting screwed. He's up to his eyeballs in the UAE for example. That's if and when, of course, you can actually find any info on it. The UAE stuff only came out after the ports contraversy blew up. And Clinton's involvement in India and China also well documented.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 10:52 AM
I recall the Unabomber went to Harvard as well...

Thought he went to the University of Michigan.

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 10:53 AM
Retrain. It's happened throughout history, it just occurs faster now.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 10:56 AM
Retrain. It's happened throughout history, it just occurs faster now.

Again, retrain for what? Engineer?

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 10:58 AM
I don't know, you're talking about macro issues using micro examples. But as an engineer, for example, you could easily get a job at Accenture or IBM, or whoever. They love logical thinkers.

Warhammer
03-10-2006, 11:00 AM
Well, we agree on that point, those running the colleges and university systems in the U.S. today are bigger con-men and rackateers that the Mafia. And they do it legally. But what you say does not begin to explain why those who did graduate with decent credentials in good-paying fields are being laid-off and downsized. And I speak specifically of engineers, those with Masters degrees in particular. If your exporting to other countries your business might be doing pretty good, for now. But all those 'high-speed graduates with worthwhile educations' your speak of used to begin careers in departments of many of those manufacturing companies now in Mexico. Where do they go now?

Outside of the software industry, I don't know of a single engineer that has been laid off. Heck, most companies I know of are looking for engineers. There was an article not too long ago in Forbes, I don't remember the date or anything, it was sometime last year, where they were talking about the dearth of engineers in the US, and how desperately companies were looking for them!

Those graduates with worthwhile educations need to find their niche. Items that come out of Mexico where the quality is good are mass produced items. They absolutely suck at producing highly customized "one-off" parts. That has been a niche many American machine shops have filled since NAFTA went into effect. In many cases, these projects are more lucrative than what they were doing previously (again, just from the people I have talked to here). Additionally, items that are sourced from Mexico inherently take longer to react their destination, that is another niche American companies can fill, that of rapid delivery to local customers. That is a niche that distributors for many industries have filled for the past 80 years!

I think a lot of this anti-NAFTA dreck has been pushed by the unions. Most countries overseas are non-union. When companies outsource jobs overseas, many times union employees here lose their jobs (manufacturing sector is what I am talking about). The unions are not happy about this, and start talking about how bad NAFTA is. Yet, who are the guys that are helping to run GM into the ground (I should say in addition to GM's management), the unions. If the labor rate plus the cost of enviromental controls to manufacture in the US was competitive to what the cost of labor overseas, plus the cost of material, plus the cost of transportation, plus all taxes and tariffs, more companies would manufacture domestically.

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 11:02 AM
There really isn't anything like an ignorant economist.

I think people who major in economics are probably our country's most intelligent group. ;) However, plenty of them have their own agenda.

Coder
03-10-2006, 11:05 AM
hxxp://www.devilducky.com/media/41738/

In the immortal words of Chris Parnell: Don't buy stuff you cannot afford.

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 11:08 AM
That's easy when your government takes 80% of your gross income.

Coder
03-10-2006, 11:13 AM
That's easy when your government takes 80% of your gross income.

What's the income tax for a 30K job in the US?

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 11:13 AM
Fortunately I have no idea. But I would guess Federal is somewhere in the 28% range.

CraigSca
03-10-2006, 11:18 AM
What's the income tax for a 30K job in the US?
25%. A job less than $29K is 15%.

Coder
03-10-2006, 11:18 AM
Fortunately I have no idea. But I would guess Federal is somewhere in the 28% range.

Just a comparison, nothing else, but the Swedish incometax is 35% up to about US$35K, above that (and I don't know how high), the rest is taxed at 50%.

We also have a salestax of 25% (12% on food).

Add to that gasoline that because of various taxes (including salestax on environment tax), costs about $1.50 per liter. I always mix up the conversion of liter to gallon, so I'll leave that to someone else.

I still like the Parnell-video :)

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 11:23 AM
I think that's like a $100 a gallon.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 11:27 AM
I don't know, you're talking about macro issues using micro examples. But as an engineer, for example, you could easily get a job at Accenture or IBM, or whoever. They love logical thinkers.

IBM just sold off its personal computer division to China.

ISiddiqui
03-10-2006, 11:29 AM
I think people who major in economics are probably our country's most intelligent group. ;) However, plenty of them have their own agenda.
I agree with that assessment of those who major in economics ;).

I think where we are losing our grip is in the realm of college education.
While I do believe that to be somewhat true, I think it is mostly because they have to re-educate those who were failed by their high schools. That takes a lot of resources and time.

Otherwise, I think our college education is one of the best in the world, but I agree with the costs associated with it.

ISiddiqui
03-10-2006, 11:30 AM
IBM just sold off its personal computer division to China.
IBM's personal computer division wasn't exactly their big money maker. IBM is now focusing on the stuff that made them the most cash, and let Lenovo deal with the PC stuff where profit margins are much less.

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 11:35 AM
IBM just sold off its personal computer division to China.

You could still get a job working for them. We were talking about retooling/retraining. When I mentioned IBM as an engineer I was thinking about consulting. IBM's primary mission is no longer personal computing hardware.

st.cronin
03-10-2006, 12:12 PM
I think people who major in economics are probably our country's most intelligent group. ;) However, plenty of them have their own agenda.

The first part is certainly possible, and I wonder if that's not actually a problem. Economics is actually a very easy science to understand - I don't think it's a good use of our resources for our best thinkers to pursue Economics. That's an entirely different conversation, though.

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 12:18 PM
The first part is certainly possible, and I wonder if that's not actually a problem. Economics is actually a very easy science to understand - I don't think it's a good use of our resources for our best thinkers to pursue Economics. That's an entirely different conversation, though.

What do you think the best use of our resources would be? I'm all for forcing women into cooking classes.

Warhammer
03-10-2006, 12:21 PM
What do you think the best use of our resources would be? I'm all for forcing women into cooking classes.

Today's lesson is bending over the oven, and taking it doggie style!

BishopMVP
03-10-2006, 12:33 PM
While I do believe that to be somewhat true, I think it is mostly because they have to re-educate those who were failed by their high schools. That takes a lot of resources and time.

Otherwise, I think our college education is one of the best in the world, but I agree with the costs associated with it.I think a large amount of the people with "college" educations are people who got a degree in a useless field. People who major in math, engineering, accounting, computer programming etc are naturally going to have an easier time finding a market for their skills coming out of college than someone who majored in "Womens Studies" or psychology or English. If someone wants to spend 15-40k a year studying these fields, go for it, but don't do so and then complain when no one wants to offer you a 70k a year job out of college.

I do agree that high schools tend to do a bad job at educating and preparing most sudents for the workforce/real world, but I think that putting the blame on them instead of focusing on what parts of the university system needs fixing is too easy a cop-out.

BishopMVP
03-10-2006, 12:43 PM
Oh, and NAFTA/Free Trade in general greatly benefit all involved. It's just that it is so much easier to focus on the acute difficulties of the few (factory workers who lose their jobs) rather than the diffuse benefits of the many (lower prices, greater efficiency.)

Also, as a quick note that points out how much outsourcing has become a bogeyman in some aspects In fact, the United States has not even been the biggest loser. Between 1995 and 2002, we lost about 11 percent of our manufacturing jobs. But over the same period, the Japanese lost 16 percent of theirs. And get this: Many developing nations are losing factory jobs. During those same years, Brazil suffered a 20 percent decline.
Here's the real surprise. China saw a 15 percent drop.Higher productivity.

ISiddiqui
03-10-2006, 12:56 PM
I think a large amount of the people with "college" educations are people who got a degree in a useless field. People who major in math, engineering, accounting, computer programming etc are naturally going to have an easier time finding a market for their skills coming out of college than someone who majored in "Womens Studies" or psychology or English. If someone wants to spend 15-40k a year studying these fields, go for it, but don't do so and then complain when no one wants to offer you a 70k a year job out of college.

I do agree that high schools tend to do a bad job at educating and preparing most sudents for the workforce/real world, but I think that putting the blame on them instead of focusing on what parts of the university system needs fixing is too easy a cop-out.
But I don't see where you articulated a part of the system that 'needs fixing'. All you said is that some people major in things that are useless for a $70k/year job. Its their choice, so I don't see a need for fixing in that respect.

Warhammer
03-10-2006, 12:58 PM
But I don't see where you articulated a part of the system that 'needs fixing'. All you said is that some people major in things that are useless for a $70k/year job. Its their choice, so I don't see a need for fixing in that respect.

No, but they are the ones crying about why they can't get a good paying job, and that all the jobs are going overseas.

ISiddiqui
03-10-2006, 01:08 PM
No, but they are the ones crying about why they can't get a good paying job, and that all the jobs are going overseas.
:confused:

No they aren't. That is the manufacturing folks.

Warhammer
03-10-2006, 01:09 PM
:confused:

No they aren't. That is the manufacturing folks.

Yeah, but many manufacturing jobs now require college degrees, that's where many of the general studies students are going.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 04:15 PM
You could still get a job working for them. We were talking about retooling/retraining. When I mentioned IBM as an engineer I was thinking about consulting. IBM's primary mission is no longer personal computing hardware.

Great, a nation of lawyers and consultants. Half of them actually working. Sounds like a bright future. And oh yeah, about those nagging deficits, when those start to hit home then the real fun begins.

Warhammer
03-10-2006, 04:28 PM
Great, a nation of lawyers and consultants. Half of them actually working. Sounds like a bright future. And oh yeah, about those nagging deficits, when those start to hit home then the real fun begins.

People have been talking about the frigging deficits since the 80s. Not sure about the lawyers, but the consultants make plenty of money.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 04:45 PM
People have been talking about the frigging deficits since the 80s. Not sure about the lawyers, but the consultants make plenty of money.

All consultants? Heard a definition of 'consultant' once, it meant being unemployed.

And the deficits? Just heard on CNN today that one of the 'fallouts' we risk over the Dubai thing is the 'drying up' of foreign investment in this country which is needed to finance our 'deficits.' So in effect, our deficits are what keep us dependent on 'sucking up' to foreign powers that hold our 'paper.' And the logical extension of that would seem to be having to give up things like Nuclear Technology in return for Mangos. But hey, just as long as some make money here, right?

Warhammer
03-10-2006, 04:59 PM
All consultants? Heard a definition of 'consultant' once, it meant being unemployed.

And the deficits? Just heard on CNN today that one of the 'fallouts' we risk over the Dubai thing is the 'drying up' of foreign investment in this country which is needed to finance our 'deficits.' So in effect, our deficits are what keep us dependent on 'sucking up' to foreign powers that hold our 'paper.' And the logical extension of that would seem to be having to give up things like Nuclear Technology in return for Mangos. But hey, just as long as some make money here, right?

Can't speak for all consultants, but the ones I've met have done very well for themselves. Lawyers I know are one of the lowest paid jobs because many of them are unable to get into firms.

The whole thing about Dubai and fallout is typical politics. Let's bitch and moan about our security being compromised, and now that we got what we wanted, let's bitch and moan that we're now screwed because people aren't going to like us.

We've been running deficits and trade deficits for years. As long as Americans create wealth at a greater rate than the deficits rise, we are fine. I don't get your jump in logic. We haven't been giving up Nuclear Technology to anyone except for when it benefits those in power, a la Clinton and his deal with NK.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 05:08 PM
Can't speak for all consultants, but the ones I've met have done very well for themselves. Lawyers I know are one of the lowest paid jobs because many of them are unable to get into firms.

The whole thing about Dubai and fallout is typical politics. Let's bitch and moan about our security being compromised, and now that we got what we wanted, let's bitch and moan that we're now screwed because people aren't going to like us.

We've been running deficits and trade deficits for years. As long as Americans create wealth at a greater rate than the deficits rise, we are fine. I don't get your jump in logic. We haven't been giving up Nuclear Technology to anyone except for when it benefits those in power, a la Clinton and his deal with NK.

Warren Buffet has gone on record as stating that the effect of the deficits will be 1. lower standard of living for Americans and 2. political unrest.

I'll just use the Biblical principle here..."The borrower is slave to the lender." Starts to explain alot to me, maybe for instance why we are the 'world's policeman.' Actually starts to look very 'mercenary' to me. Maybe even 'feudal.'

ISiddiqui
03-10-2006, 05:54 PM
We've been running deficits and trade deficits for years. As long as Americans create wealth at a greater rate than the deficits rise, we are fine. I don't get your jump in logic. We haven't been giving up Nuclear Technology to anyone except for when it benefits those in power, a la Clinton and his deal with NK.Especially when you compare our debt levels to our GDP, it isn't nearly as bad as it is made out to be. It isn't good, but there are plenty of countries that have a higher debt/GDP level.

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 06:39 PM
Warren Buffet has gone on record as stating that the effect of the deficits will be 1. lower standard of living for Americans and 2. political unrest.

I'll just use the Biblical principle here..."The borrower is slave to the lender." Starts to explain alot to me, maybe for instance why we are the 'world's policeman.' Actually starts to look very 'mercenary' to me. Maybe even 'feudal.'

And Milton Friedman has argued that a trade deficit is a good thing.

As for the consultant part, instead of generalizing with half-jokes, use facts to support your arguments. I don't see anything to respond to there. You asked what an engineer could retrain as and I gave you an example. Nothing in your response furthers the argument.

Free trade is a macro economic argument anyway, not a "well this guy Johnny in Iowa can't find a job, so things must be screwed up," discussion. Two different levels of perspective and mixing the two leads to false conclusions about the impact of policy decisions.

Bubba Wheels
03-10-2006, 06:48 PM
And Milton Friedman has argued that a trade deficit is a good thing.

As for the consultant part, instead of generalizing with half-jokes, use facts to support your arguments. I don't see anything to respond to there. You asked what an engineer could retrain as and I gave you an example. Nothing in your response furthers the argument.

Free trade is a macro economic argument anyway, not a "well this guy Johnny in Iowa can't find a job, so things must be screwed up," discussion. Two different levels of perspective and mixing the two leads to false conclusions about the impact of policy decisions.

There is a world of difference between Free Trade and Fair Trade. Running deficits is in part because other countries devalue currency (Japan, China) and engage in dumping (steel, computer chips) because we allow them to do it here. Then these same countries block most of our exports or worse, like China just steal the properties, manufacture their own versions and call them something else. It is creating a two-tiered economic reality here in the U.S., and sooner or later enough folks will catch on to do something (legally) about it. It may actually be starting to happen as we speak.

Desnudo
03-10-2006, 08:04 PM
I do agree with the general point. It's ridiculous how much we let some countries get away with as far as erecting trading barriers. Although to be fair, we have our own artificial trade restrictions due to lobbying, e.g. the steel industry.

sterlingice
03-10-2006, 10:26 PM
Well, we agree on that point, those running the colleges and university systems in the U.S. today are bigger con-men and rackateers that the Mafia. And they do it legally. But what you say does not begin to explain why those who did graduate with decent credentials in good-paying fields are being laid-off and downsized. And I speak specifically of engineers, those with Masters degrees in particular. If your exporting to other countries your business might be doing pretty good, for now. But all those 'high-speed graduates with worthwhile educations' your speak of used to begin careers in departments of many of those manufacturing companies now in Mexico. Where do they go now?Back to Warhammer's post: "That is the bigger problem, the middle class is not producing people that are deemed "valuable" to companies, or they are not graduating from college with degrees that will give them a higher baseline to start their career." Basically, you have to be management to get paid well. There are some older workers who are the "senior" whatevers who make good money, but the rank and file workers are not valued. Not only that, but when it's cutting time, it's easier to drop the axe on one older guy who makes more than three others.

As for management. Why? Because, the management is in a position to cover their ass at the expense of the workers- it's easy to make yourself look good when you're the one making the reports.

SI

cartman
03-10-2006, 10:48 PM
I do feel confident that we are able to address our deficit payments in the short term. But going forward, I feel we are eventually going to hit a wall.

The best argument for this, at least to me, is to use Bill Gates. He is worth $40 billion today. So let's say he goes all "Island of Dr. Moreau" on us, and decides he wants to buy his own island, and build up his own army, navy, and air force to protect it. He has $40 billion, why not? This equates to the US during Reagan's first term.

Now, it is a few years later, and Bill, being Bill, is hyped up on getting the latest and greatest. He still is the richest man in the world, but his need for high tech has outpaced his net worth. He has the best and most advanced military in the world, but now he is $320 billion in the hole. He has had to borrow tons of money to pay for all his new toys. This equates to the US today.

He still is CEO of an immensly powerful company, but his obligations are as much or more than the net worth of his company. Since he was, by far, the richest person in the world, the amount he needs to borrow to continue his immense growth is more than the available pool of money. Even though he has the means to continue pay the accumulated debt, there simply isn't enough available capital left in the world to continue to feed the growing debt.

This is where I feel we are headed in the coming years. It won't be a question of our ability to pay down our debt, it will be a problem of having enough free capital in the rest of the world to invest in our debt instruments.

Desnudo
03-11-2006, 12:15 AM
We will see increased income taxes if it comes down to the US defaulting on debt payments.

sterlingice
03-11-2006, 12:18 AM
And Milton Friedman has argued that a trade deficit is a good thing.

As for the consultant part, instead of generalizing with half-jokes, use facts to support your arguments. I don't see anything to respond to there. You asked what an engineer could retrain as and I gave you an example. Nothing in your response furthers the argument.

Free trade is a macro economic argument anyway, not a "well this guy Johnny in Iowa can't find a job, so things must be screwed up," discussion. Two different levels of perspective and mixing the two leads to false conclusions about the impact of policy decisions.To be fair, it's not as if anyone else is doing anything but saying "Well, it's easy to get a job if you're a consultant. Everyone knows that, duh." I just spent well over a year after getting my computer science degree with remarkably low standards for what kind of job I would take, working crappy temp stuff without finding a job. Maybe it's time to stop pretending IT and Programming are magical lands to find jobs because they aren't any more- yes, there are jobs out there but there are also a ton of out of work programmers out there.

SI

Desnudo
03-11-2006, 12:30 AM
I'm not sure what you're getting at. I agree totally that IT is not the breadbasket it once was. What I can tell you is that if you have a Comp Sci degree and were living in Seattle right now, you would have a job. Being a developer specifically, maybe not. Getting a job that applies the knowledge or problem solving skills you learned through that discipline, absolutely.

Bubba Wheels
03-11-2006, 06:58 PM
I do feel confident that we are able to address our deficit payments in the short term. But going forward, I feel we are eventually going to hit a wall.

The best argument for this, at least to me, is to use Bill Gates. He is worth $40 billion today. So let's say he goes all "Island of Dr. Moreau" on us, and decides he wants to buy his own island, and build up his own army, navy, and air force to protect it. He has $40 billion, why not? This equates to the US during Reagan's first term.

Now, it is a few years later, and Bill, being Bill, is hyped up on getting the latest and greatest. He still is the richest man in the world, but his need for high tech has outpaced his net worth. He has the best and most advanced military in the world, but now he is $320 billion in the hole. He has had to borrow tons of money to pay for all his new toys. This equates to the US today.

He still is CEO of an immensly powerful company, but his obligations are as much or more than the net worth of his company. Since he was, by far, the richest person in the world, the amount he needs to borrow to continue his immense growth is more than the available pool of money. Even though he has the means to continue pay the accumulated debt, there simply isn't enough available capital left in the world to continue to feed the growing debt.

This is where I feel we are headed in the coming years. It won't be a question of our ability to pay down our debt, it will be a problem of having enough free capital in the rest of the world to invest in our debt instruments.

Well, let's continue to use your analogy. What does Bill Gates do next? Sell his toys! Maybe that's exactly what the answer for us is...slash our military down to a completely DEFENSIVE one! Being the world's policeman is very costly, not to mention being the paid mercenary force for the Arab Oil world. Let them hire real mercenaries! Maybe even let NATO be for hire!

Meantime we go to a force of National Guard, Reserves, Coast Guard, radically reduced active service (mostly a force for training the above). Mothball our carriers and other highly technical/nuclear fleet and sell off the other stuff. Submarines make great defensive weapons, emphasis those. No more port-calls to Dubai...what a shame!

Air Force I would be more cautious with downsizing, but the same plan overall for them. That would free up tons of cash to balance our deficits and alot of those radical Arab countries would be spending much more money on their own defense rather than funding radical mosques and terrorists in other parts of the world.

Crapshoot
03-11-2006, 07:11 PM
FWIW, I'm a consultant. The fact that Bubba thinks even less for me only confirms that I'm in the right field. :D

Bubba Wheels
03-11-2006, 07:16 PM
FWIW, I'm a consultant. The fact that Bubba thinks even less for me only confirms that I'm in the right field. :D

Reminds me of going into a used car dealership couple of years ago. All the business cards had 'consultant' printed on them. Maybe they thought the customers would have a higher opinion of them than they would have of 'used car salesman.":)