NCAA Tourney Poll: Which will happen first?

[DeToxRox]

Will we see all four #1 seeds make the Final Four or a #16 seed beat a #1 seed first?

I think it'll be a 16 beating a 1 with the gap between these teams closing, and thus the #1s all winning will become increasingly harder.

Your thoughts?

[ISiddiqui]

16 beating a 1.

[cartman]

Simple math solves this one. A 16 beating a 1 is a single game instance, but for all 4 #1s to make the Final Four requires a total of 16 games all falling into the win column for the #1 seeds.

[Groundhog]

Simple math solves this one. A 16 beating a 1 is a single game instance, but for all 4 #1s to make the Final Four requires a total of 16 games all falling into the win column for the #1 seeds.

Hmm... I voted for a #16 seed upset, but I don't think it's quite as clear cut as simple math would suggest.

#1 seeds are always very good, if not excellent, ball teams, while #16 are usually god-awful. Most of these games aren't close and even with the gap seemingly lessening between top tier and mid tier programs (though I think we need to observe at least another 2-3 season before we can make this call), the #16 are generally not even mid tier programs.

Still, all these guys are basketball players and any team in the country is capable of getting hot and draining 10 three pointers in a row or something. I think some #16 will catch on fire and hit everything while the #1 seed struggles. When this happens, I don't know.

[sooner333]

Well, usually the bottom 5 teams are really bad, sometimes teams that didn't even have a winning record. This year I thought the committee made a mistake by making ORU a 16 seed (they actually ran with Memphis pretty well), but most 16's have not been that good.

I woudln't even be surprised if all #1's made the final four this year. We are halfway there and only two of the two seeds remain. However, it could be 50 years until either of these happen.

[Butter]

Albany had a 12 point lead with 11 minutes to go Friday night. If that's not going to do it, I don't know what freakin' will. If they had been able to keep up that hot play for just a few more minutes, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

So, I think it's a 16 over a 1, just because there have been so many close calls... eventually, one of these teams just won't cool off and fade down the stretch.

[cartman]

Plus there are four chances each tourney for a #16 to knock off a #1, but only one chance for all four #1s to make it to the Final Four.

[st.cronin]

The trend in college basketball is towards greater and greater parity. So, the distance between the 16 seeds and the 1 seed is closing - making that upset MORE likely, while also making the chance of all 4 1s advancing LESS likely.

[st.cronin]

By the way, both of these will happen before there is an FOFC multi-player Maximum Football League.