PING: JonInMiddleGA

[albionmoonlight]

This piece does not actually contain the Neilsen report mentioned. But I didn't know if you had access to it or not or could present your 2c on the issue.

It seems to me that New Orleans is coming back smaller--but whiter, older, and more male--which is what a lot of people predicted.

Anyway, all I am really asking is whether you--as someone who reads this kind of info for a living--read this info as good news for the City, bad news for the City, or can't really tell if it is good or bad.

http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.showArticleHomePage&art_aid=42064

Thanks.

[Franklinnoble]

That's because rich, old, white males swooped in after the hurricane and bought up all the real estate for pennies on the dollar. Those vultures will be picking at the carrion for the next five years or so, then sell of their investment, and the demographics will change again.

Not that I expect them to return to their pre-Katrina stats; I just expect them to change again.

[JonInMiddleGA]

First, I'm glad you brought this up because it had flown under my radar until now. New Orleans/Gulf Coast isn't one of the markets or regions that I normally do much in so this isn't immediate need info for me but it is something that I should be keeping track of for future use, so I'm glad you brought it to my attention.

Reading the piece you linked & a couple of other trade articles that summarized it, I believe that this was actually Nielsen reporting on population data released by Claritas (a major demographics company) and then applying information from other studies to those numbers to make some reasonable estimates about the new demographics of the area. I think I've found the Claritas data accessible at this link (it looks like the right data at least)
http://www.claritas.com/claritas/Default.jsp?ci=1&pn=hurricane_katrina_data

As for what it means ... I'm not sure anybody really knows, me included.

There's so many layers that such a demographic shift (if the estimates are accurate) would impact that I hardly know where to start. You've definitely got the makings of a changed political landscape there, quite likely a different social landscape too. Economically, if you were talking about some number of years down the road & the current trends hold up, it appears possible that New Orleans might actually see an increase in stats like median household income ... but as long as much of that income is being poured into recovery & rebuilding, you aren't going to have anything approaching a "normal" economy.
I expect the male/female demographics to move slowly but steadily back toward the norm, and wouldn't be particularly surprised if the racial and/or ethnic composition of the market didn't also start back toward its original breakdown. And all of the things that shift in New Orleans will also be shifting in the surrounding areas, basically everyone that left is going to end up somewhere.

[Masked]

The male/female split is likely due to the number of wives and kids living out of the area until the end of the current school year.

I am not sure Franklin's characterization of the investors/developers/vultures is accurate. The only ones my family has had contact with were a group of Chinese who made a very low offer and some "kid" from NYC who offered about 75% of the asking price. (This kid was apparently about 30). A sample of two is hardly significant though.

As for the demographics, several homes in my old neighborhood have been bought by former residents of St. Bernard parish. They have little confidence that their levees will be ever be repaired. This won't effect the demographics of the region, but for the first time in about 50 years, there may be a significant move of middle class families into the city.

The election results should be quite revealing as well. Who wins - Nagin or a rich, old, white guy.

[Eaglesfan27]

Just my limited 2 cents. I'm also seeing a lot of St. Bernard Parish residents moving into Orleans Parish and the city.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Just my limited 2 cents. I'm also seeing a lot of St. Bernard Parish residents moving into Orleans Parish and the city.

EF -- did you get a chance to look at the maps I linked from the Claritas site?
They're color-coded & show county/parrish lines. I'm curious if what those maps show match your impressions.

[Eaglesfan27]

EF -- did you get a chance to look at the maps I linked from the Claritas site?
They're color-coded & show county/parrish lines. I'm curious if what those maps show match your impressions.


I'll take a look now.

[Eaglesfan27]

EF -- did you get a chance to look at the maps I linked from the Claritas site?
They're color-coded & show county/parrish lines. I'm curious if what those maps show match your impressions.


From my impressions, those maps do match up very well. St. Tammany Parish is showing huge growth due to Katrina's effects. I also think Baton Rouge and the surrounding parishes will continue to see some overall growth from Katrina. Of course, Houston and other areas in Texas are still seeing an increased population as well.

[stevew]

I saw a flyer the other day on how to vote if you had been displaced by Katrina at our local post office. Which was kind of odd since I live in the middle of nowhere in PA.