DE Mario Williams Will Go No. 1!

[Grid Iron]

Don't know if this was posted yet.

NFL Network just reported that the Texans have signed Williams today and will pick him first overall in the 2006 Draft!:eek:

Is there still time to get in my Solecismic Draft Challenge?;)

[Doug5984]

Holy crap- as a saints fan I am now very confused as to what I want the team to do.........

-----------------------------


Texans | Texans reach agreement with M. Williams
Fri, 28 Apr 2006 17:16:22 -0700

The NFL Network reports the Houston Texans have reached a contract agreement with North Carolina State DE Mario Williams. He is now expected to be the first pick in the NFL Draft.

[Julio Riddols]

Yowza.

Tomorrow will be the most interesting draft I have ever seen.

[jbmagic]

Don't know if this was posted yet.

Texans signed Williams today.


Not true.

They have not decided between Bush or Williams yet.

And you cant sign a player until after the draft is over.

[TazFTW]

Not true.

They have not decided between Bush or Williams yet.

And you cant sign a player until after the draft is over.

You can if you have the #1 pick.

[Grid Iron]

Not true.

I don't know dude, the guys on the NFL Network sound pretty convincing. . .:)

[stevew]

Russell Maryland went #1 overall one year in part because he was willing to sign the most reasonable contract.

[Honolulu_Blue]

You can if you have the #1 pick.

Yup. And if the team with the #1 pick has signed someone, the team with the #2 can then as well.

[jbmagic]

I don't know dude, the guys on the NFL Network sound pretty convincing. . .:)


Wow. This is going to shake up the whole draft.

I wonder if true, if Bush told them he will not sign there in Houston?

[Joe]

Not true.

They have not decided between Bush or Williams yet.

And you cant sign a player until after the draft is over.

Yeah you can, David Carr was signed a few weeks before the draft.

[cartman]

Yeah you can, David Carr was signed a few weeks before the draft.

And last year SF signed Alex Smith before the draft.

[stevew]

It seems that the #1 is usually signed to a contract pre-draft. I believe the Niners had a deal in place last year.

[MrBug708]

Not true.

They have not decided between Bush or Williams yet.

And you cant sign a player until after the draft is over.

Have you never played FOF?

[stevew]

Bush to the Niners or to the Jets, or to the Saints?

[Honolulu_Blue]

I know there were concerns about "signability" with Bush, but I wonder how much all of this current Michaels Michaels situation played a role in the decision.

[Young Drachma]

Yeah you can, David Carr was signed a few weeks before the draft.

Yeah, I was gonna say this.

[stevew]

I bet it was mainly "signability." Bush seemed to want a deal in line with the QB contracts that were handed out the last couple years, and the Texans weren't down with that apparently.

[molson]

My head is spinning. So do the Saints take Bush without a huge need at RB? Or does Bush now drop to the Titans? But the Titans seem set on a QB - does Bush drop all the way to the Jets?

Gutsy move. I wonder how much money they're saving. If it's alot, it's sort of like taking two players with the top pick, Williams, and whoever they can sign with that savings.

[Doug5984]

It is being reported everywhere now that Williams is the # 1 pick- man o man...I'm not going to sleep tonight.

[kingnebwsu]

hxxp://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2426003

I'm shocked.

[Franklinnoble]

I bet it was mainly "signability." Bush seemed to want a deal in line with the QB contracts that were handed out the last couple years, and the Texans weren't down with that apparently.

If that's true, then he just ended up costing himself even more money, because I could see him dropping a few more spots now...

[Young Drachma]

Jets better move up to #2

[bronconick]

I hate the Detroit Lions. If they push that field goal left in Week 16, they're drafting Reggie Bush tomorrow, who would fit into a Mike Martz offense 10x better then Kevin Jones.

[JonInMiddleGA]

If this was their choice (i.e. it isn't because Bush said he wouldn't sign with them), it stands as one of the worst draft decisions I can ever recall.

[stevew]

If that's true, then he just ended up costing himself even more money, because I could see him dropping a few more spots now...

I can't. He should go #2 almost no matter what, he's just that good. He should have probably gone #1.

Addendum, he could have something going on, for example a positive drug test, that we don't know about. He seems like a good guy so I doubt it, but stuff like that happens, and there did seem to be some rumors out there that a couple of guys had tested positive for something. Or it could be this michael michaels thing.

[Samdari]

If that's true, then he just ended up costing himself even more money, because I could see him dropping a few more spots now...

Well, the team with the #1 pick usually flirts with making offer to players other than the concensus #1 pick to try to get leverage on that guy and get him to sign before the draft. The #1 guy never falls for it because he knows he going #1 no matter what, so he waits until he's drafted, when he will hold all the cards. This is unprecedented, IMO, hard to fault Bush's agent for telling him he'll get a better deal after he goes #1.

[stevew]

If this was their choice (i.e. it isn't because Bush said he wouldn't sign with them), it stands as one of the worst draft decisions I can ever recall.

I dunno, it will probably take time to get there. The Chargers trading an additional #1 for Leaf is up there.

[bulletsponge]

well i hope this happens, will throw the draft on its head. people might make moves up the draft to get Bush if they can get him at the 2 or 3 spot. and maybe, just maybe in the comotion V Young will drop some and Minnesota will trade down to get him :)

[JW]

Houston Chronicle story:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3828229.html

April 28, 2006, 7:43PM
Texans to draft Mario Williams
Houston signs North Carolina State defensive end to $22 million deal


By JOHN McCLAIN
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

NEW YORK -- In a stunning move that will reverberate through the first round of Saturday's NFL draft, the Texans have signed North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams to a contract, meaning he'll be the first player selected.

By signing Williams to a contract that will guarantee him almost $22 million this year, the Texans turned their back on Southern California running back Reggie Bush as well as University of Texas quarterback Vince Young.

Williams' agent, Ben Dogra, didn't become seriously involved in negotiations until Wednesday night when he was convinced the Texans weren't using his client as leverage against Bush.

Dogra, who also represents Longhorns' cornerback Michael Huff, exchanged proposals with vice president of administration Dan Ferens, the chief negotiator, as the clocked ticked down to this weekend's draft.

Williams, 6-7, 295, had an exceptional performance at the Indianapolis scouting combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.70, bench pressing 225 pounds 35 times and having a vertical leap of 40 inches.

Although the Texans said the controversy involving Bush and his parents' living arrangements in San Diego had nothing to do with their decision, they intensified negotiations with Dogra on Thursday and worked all day Friday to complete the deal.

[Celeval]

I'm fully expecting New Orleans to recoup some of those Ricky Williams picks for Bush. ;)

[Joe]

well i hope this happens, will throw the draft on its head. people might make moves up the draft to get Bush if they can get him at the 2 or 3 spot. and maybe, just maybe in the comotion V Young will drop some and Minnesota will trade down to get him :)

Vikings trading down would mean VY slips past #17 :confused:

[TazFTW]

ESPNEWS says it is 6 years, $54 million.

[bulletsponge]

If Williams is a "Jullias Peppers" type end then i would take him #1 overall too. i think Bush is rated #1 cause the media lap up in his toiletbowl

[bulletsponge]

Vikings trading down would mean VY slips past #17


trade up i mean :)

[ISiddiqui]

HOLY SHIT!!

Wow... what a shocker!

If this was their choice (i.e. it isn't because Bush said he wouldn't sign with them), it stands as one of the worst draft decisions I can ever recall.

Ditto. Houston is going to be kicking themselves in 10 years (Hell, maybe after this year!)

[Doug5984]

I do not think its a bad pick for the Texans- they have Dominick Davis, who isn't near the back of Bush- but he has done well....He can get it done, and RB wasn't a HUGE need. DE is, and Mario could be a Julius Peppers type player, very worthy of # 1 overall.

[bulletsponge]

all the Texans need to get thier offence better is an O-Line, not another running back

[Samdari]

. Houston is going to be kicking themselves in 10 years (Hell, maybe after this year!)

You misread that. They're NOT taking Bush.

[Abe Sargent]

If this was their choice (i.e. it isn't because Bush said he wouldn't sign with them), it stands as one of the worst draft decisions I can ever recall.


DE is a more premier position than RB and just this week I was touting Williams over Bush purely based on the position. Top DEs go for MAD money. RBs do not (take a look at franchise tag salary costs to verify this). After QB, DE is the most premium position on a team, and you take your chances to get one when you can.


In the past several yaers, look how many RBs have been available of high caliber in free agency and trades. You can also get good running backs later in the draft. You rarely find real impact DEs later in teh draft, but you regularly see teams do well with RBs taken later.

The shelf life of a RB is shorter compared to DE, thus giving you more bang for your buck.

I would, as a GM, take a DE that I thought would be a top 10 DE in the league before taking a RB that I thought would be top 5.


-Anxiety

[gstelmack]

I'm in favor of this. Sounds like Bush was being exhorbitant in his contract demands, and given the average longevity of a RB this sure sounds like a safer way to not gamble the whole franchise. I think the Texans get better with Williams on defense than they do with Bush on offense.

[Franklinnoble]

I really don't know if New Orleans or Tennessee will take him, and I'm not sure they'd be able to swing a trade down... so I could see him falling to #4.

[WSUCougar]

Damn, but I love this shit.

[Mustang]

I really don't know if New Orleans or Tennessee will take him, and I'm not sure they'd be able to swing a trade down... so I could see him falling to #4.

Could be interesting if the Packers decided to dangle Walker and the #5 at the Saints in a package. (Walker did visit with the Saints)

Although, Ted Thompson has never ever traded up in the first round so, this would be a long shot.

[Logan]

I really don't know if New Orleans or Tennessee will take him, and I'm not sure they'd be able to swing a trade down... so I could see him falling to #4.

I swear, if he falls to the Jets, I'll be disgusted.

[Franklinnoble]

Damn, but I love this shit.

On this, we agree. This just makes the whole offseason a lot more interesting.

[Toddzilla]

Per ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2426003), it is a 6-year $54M deal

[bulletsponge]

i cant wait for tomorow

[Anthony]

based on DE being more of a premium position than RB - the Texans made the right decision. however, giving up on a talent like Bush - they also made the ballsiest decision.

[Fouts]

Darnit, I put Bush #1 and Mario #2 in my Solecismic Draft Challenge.

[Greyroofoo]

I can't see it as a shocker that the Texans didn't take Bush. They already have a solid running back and have much more pressing needs elsewhere.

[Grid Iron]

Great call by Texans, I think. Not only do they get a top-notch DE, but they avoid all the distractions Reggie will bring with him in holding out and the possible NCAA violations.

[CraigSca]

God, this makes me want to play TCY (of all things)!

[jbmagic]

on espn its being reported that the Titans and Jets have interest for Bush over the the top Qb in the draft too.

New Orleans can really make a good deal from several teams now to move down in the draft if they dont take Bush.

I just hope one of the top 2 Qb falls for the Raiders. Or hoping the Raiders move up to #2 in the draft and get Bush.

[Noop]

Interesting turn of events... Saints can really help themselves if they decide to trade their pick.

[Ramzavail]

God, I REALLY want the Jets to trade up now.

[sabotai]

The trade value of the Saints' #2 pick just went through the roof.

[cuervo72]

I can't see it as a shocker that the Texans didn't take Bush. They already have a solid running back and have much more pressing needs elsewhere.

Plus there were stories out there that folks in the Bush camp had said they didn't think he was going to Houston from some of Houston's (in)actions.

[duckman]

Charley Casserly just said on the NFL Network that the deal included $26.5 million in guaranteed money.

[miami_fan]

Charley Casserly just said on the NFL Network that the deal included $26.5 million in guaranteed money.

So if we believe the previous rumors they saved about 3.5 mil by not taking Bush?

[duckman]

So if we believe the previous rumors they saved about 3.5 mil by not taking Bush?

I would bet it had to do with the way the parameters of the deal were set up. I would wager that not all that $26.5 is as guaranteed as they want us to believe with mechanisms like roster bonuses as such.

[Crim]

I just hope one of the top 2 Qb falls for the Raiders. Or hoping the Raiders move up to #2 in the draft and get Bush.

I hope da Raidahs draft a punter.

[Raiders Army]

on espn its being reported that the Titans and Jets have interest for Bush over the the top Qb in the draft too.

New Orleans can really make a good deal from several teams now to move down in the draft if they dont take Bush.

I just hope one of the top 2 Qb falls for the Raiders. Or hoping the Raiders move up to #2 in the draft and get Bush.
The Raiders don't need to waste that pick on Bush. No way, even with Al Davis' love of Heisman winners.

[duckman]

The Raiders don't need to waste that pick on Bush. No way, even with Al Davis' love of Heisman winners who may have broke NCAA rules.

Fixed.

[Huckleberry]

I can agree with those that say as a player personnel decision it might not be a bad selection.

But drafting him #1 was stupid. No way around it. Consider this - they could have traded the #1 pick for the #2 or #3 (and maybe the #4) pick straight up then still gotten Williams and saved millions of dollars in the process.

[miami_fan]

If that's true, then he just ended up costing himself even more money, because I could see him dropping a few more spots now...

After taking another look at the draft order barring a trade, I tend to agree with you. I could see him dropping to San Fran.

[Logan]

Charley Casserly just said on the NFL Network that the deal included $26.5 million in guaranteed money.

That number seems way too high.

[Doug5984]

I can agree with those that say as a player personnel decision it might not be a bad selection.

But drafting him #1 was stupid. No way around it. Consider this - they could have traded the #1 pick for the #2 or #3 (and maybe the #4) pick straight up then still gotten Williams and saved millions of dollars in the process.


the problem is I dont think anyone wanted to trade up to # 1 to get Bush, well atleast anyone in the top 4.

[miami_fan]

I can agree with those that say as a player personnel decision it might not be a bad selection.

But drafting him #1 was stupid. No way around it. Consider this - they could have traded the #1 pick for the #2 or #3 (and maybe the #4) pick straight up then still gotten Williams and saved millions of dollars in the process.

Not if the Saints wanted Williams as has been reported.

[Fonzie]

Holy crap.

[clintl]

It seems that the #1 is usually signed to a contract pre-draft. I believe the Niners had a deal in place last year.

No, they did not. They tried to sign him before the draft, but didn't get the deal done until later.

[QuikSand]

So, if you decide that the guy you really want is Williams... okay, fine. Why not at least pick up the phone and call New Orleans, right? They have to be willing to send you something to swap... at the very least their 2nd rounder, wouldn't you think?

That's the side of this that floors me. In a draft where there is a clear-cut consensus #1 player, and you hold pick #1 and decide you don't want him... you TRADE DOWN.

[Tigercat]

Not if the Saints wanted Williams as has been reported.

Which was a guess that he was on top of the Saints board more than a guess that the Saints truely coveted him. Saints have two DEs that have pro bowl potential(though I doubt Grant will ever fully realize his), so Williams would have been more of a best player on a board pick than someone the saints would have really "wanted."


Rumor here in New Orleans is a possible trade down with the Jets for the Jets 2 1st rounders and the Jet's third round pick.

[Logan]

So, if you decide that the guy you really want is Williams... okay, fine. Why not at least pick up the phone and call New Orleans, right? They have to be willing to send you something to swap... at the very least their 2nd rounder, wouldn't you think?

That's the side of this that floors me. In a draft where there is a clear-cut consensus #1 player, and you hold pick #1 and decide you don't want him... you TRADE DOWN.

Why would they give up something extra? To get a player that they now know they can get in the 2 spot?

[QuikSand]

Rumor here in New Orleans is a possible trade down with the Jets for the Jets 2 1st rounders and the Jet's third round pick.

That's the way you fucking plsy this game.

Casserly's head, on a pike, NOW.

[Logan]

Rumor here in New Orleans is a possible trade down with the Jets for the Jets 2 1st rounders and the Jet's third round pick.

This is where I think you have to throw the value charts out the window. That's a terrible trade, IMO, for the Jets if Bush goes #1. But once he's available at 2, you do it without thinking.

[JS19]

I am very impressed with the Texans management for doing this. They didn't go with the "popular" choice or let anyone pressure them in to taking Bush. I am not doubting Bush's talent one bit, but a RB wasn't their #1 need and they went with the choice that will probably be more beneficial to the team.

[miami_fan]

That's the way you fucking plsy this game.

Casserly's head, on a pike, NOW.

He is supposed to resign or be fired after the draft anyway. Reports say he is headed to the league office.

[QuikSand]

Why would they give up something extra? To get a player that they now know they can get in the 2 spot?

If you're Houston, you play your cards closely (no need to completely spell out your strategy), but teams do this all the time -- trade to move up one spot. Cleveland did it to get TE Winslow, Arizona did it to get RB Hearst, both just off the top of my head. Sell the Saints that you are fine with either of two guys, let them trade up for the glory boy, and get the guy you want with pick #2 and get compensated for it (plus a cheaper contract).

Worst case scenario is what -- you still get Reggie Bush and get to wheel down with a monster offer from the J-E-T-S? That's your WORST case. Fools.

[QuikSand]

He is supposed to resign or be fired after the draft anyway. Reports say he is headed to the league office.

I didn't mean that figuratively.

[molson]

I can agree with those that say as a player personnel decision it might not be a bad selection.

But drafting him #1 was stupid. No way around it. Consider this - they could have traded the #1 pick for the #2 or #3 (and maybe the #4) pick straight up then still gotten Williams and saved millions of dollars in the process.

It's pretty obvious that nobody was willing to give up anything signficant to trade up to #1. And why would they, the Saints, Titans and Jets will all likely have a shot at him anyway.

[QuikSand]

This is where I think you have to throw the value charts out the window. That's a terrible trade, IMO, for the Jets if Bush goes #1. But once he's available at 2, you do it without thinking.

Agreed. Bush has more value than a standard #1 overall pick, no matter where he actually gets selected. The drool factor is through the roof -- thus my main argument with the Texans' "thinking" here.

[33sherman]

Darnit, I put Bush #1 and Mario #2 in my Solecismic Draft Challenge.

Did anyone have Bush not going #1? Please step forward if you did.

[QuikSand]

It's pretty obvious that nobody was willing to give up anything signficant to trade up to #1. And why would they, the Saints, Titans and Jets will all likely have a shot at him anyway.

If you are sitting at #1, one day before the draft, and you don't want the glory boy consensus #1 guy, then rather than shrugging and giving up -- why the hell not just *wait* a day, and see if someone gets nervous? If you float that you really are open to a deal... the guy from the Jets or the Saints is going to have trouble sleeping as he thinks about Reggie Bush in his team's uniform. Once again - if you're 100% sold on Williams, and nothing else will do, then the *worst case* is that you end up right where you are... but at least you remain open to a possible knock-your-socks-off deal.

The Texans are now poised to make the Saints front office look like geniuses. Think about that.

[Logan]

If you're Houston, you play your cards closely (no need to completely spell out your strategy), but teams do this all the time -- trade to move up one spot. Cleveland did it to get TE Winslow, Arizona did it to get RB Hearst, both just off the top of my head. Sell the Saints that you are fine with either of two guys, let them trade up for the glory boy, and get the guy you want with pick #2 and get compensated for it (plus a cheaper contract).

Worst case scenario is what -- you still get Reggie Bush and get to wheel down with a monster offer from the J-E-T-S? That's your WORST case. Fools.

But the problem is that the Saints weren't locked in to one player. I think the consensus pick shifted daily between Williams and Ferguson. Plus there's no reason to believe they wouldn't be interested in Bush if he fell to them. And then you also come to the realization that the #2 pick has extremely more trade value with Bush sitting there. I'll stick to my belief that Houston didn't have much of a choice here.

[miami_fan]

Sounds like money was not an issue. Len Pasquarelli is reporting that the offer made to Williams is better than any offer made to Bush.

[Deattribution]

If you are sitting at #1, one day before the draft, and you don't want the glory boy consensus #1 guy, then rather than shrugging and giving up -- why the hell not just *wait* a day, and see if someone gets nervous? If you float that you really are open to a deal... the guy from the Jets or the Saints is going to have trouble sleeping as he thinks about Reggie Bush in his team's uniform. Once again - if you're 100% sold on Williams, and nothing else will do, then the *worst case* is that you end up right where you are... but at least you remain open to a possible knock-your-socks-off deal.

The Texans are now poised to make the Saints front office look like geniuses. Think about that.

Because they wanted their #1 guy signed going into the draft, it's not as if everyone is clamoring to go play for the Texans, so they wanted to be sure they got their guy asap.

The Saints would have looked stupid trading up for a guy they could have (and can now) got without moving a spot. The Saints want to move down, not up.

[Celeval]

Did anyone have Bush not going #1? Please step forward if you did.

I had it in the Sol. draft challenge (iirc, I might have chickened out but I don't think so).

[Celeval]

Sounds like money was not an issue. Len Pasquarelli is reporting that the offer made to Williams is better than any offer made to Bush.

Yeah, but Bush and the Texans were pretty far apart... just because the offer to Williams is better than any made to Bush doesn't mean it was anywhere near what Bush was asking for. I bet RB & co were playing hardball and not expecting the Texans to pull this one out of a hat.

[QuikSand]

The Saints would have looked stupid trading up for a guy they could have (and can now) got without moving a spot. The Saints want to move down, not up.

That's a circular argument. Of course now that the Texans have spilled the beans it would look dumb. But if these guys (the Texans) had half a brain in them, they wouldn't have let the world know they were locked in on taking Williams, and at least made a serious overture to New Orleans about the #1 pick. Their absolute worst case is they end up where they are now, with no offers at all, and no choice but to go against the grain. Making this pick in advance, and not exhausting their trade options, is totally inexcusable.

[cthomer5000]

Jets better move up to #2

Huh? The Jets have so many needs, and DE is so low among them, that i am very, very happy with this development. I would now be happier If I find out Bush goes #2, because I really don't want the Jets to draft him. Offensive line (any position on it) is their biggest need. I'll be happy with D'brick, Leinart, Young, or a trade down with a nice pickup of draft picks.

[General Mike]

As a quasi Jets fan, they have to trade up and take Bush. Before I wanted them to take Ferguson, and I still do if he will be there at 4, but Bush is special and they need a special player with their crap offense.

[yabanci]

That's a circular argument. Of course now that the Texans have spilled the beans it would look dumb. But if these guys (the Texans) had half a brain in them, they wouldn't have let the world know they were locked in on taking Williams, and at least made a serious overture to New Orleans about the #1 pick. Their absolute worst case is they end up where they are now, with no offers at all, and no choice but to go against the grain. Making this pick in advance, and not exhausting their trade options, is totally inexcusable.

just curious, what makes you so absolutely positive the Texans didn't make this "serious overture" to the Saints? It seems a bit naive to think they didn't make the phone call.

[cthomer5000]

You misread that. They're NOT taking Bush.

Yeah, I lean more towards this point of view. RB is clearly not a priority for the Texans. They might get killed in the local press or even by the fans, but I think they made a better (though more unpopular) decision. Ultimately I still think trading down might have been the best move for them, but I imagine they explored that situation extensively.

[cthomer5000]

Rumor here in New Orleans is a possible trade down with the Jets for the Jets 2 1st rounders and the Jet's third round pick.

I will vomit blood if this happens. The Jets had better stand still or move down, if anything. I'd be fine with moving down and just taking BPA for their first 3-4 picks. We need O-line help like you wouldn't believe.

[scooper]

This is just another example of the many ways in which Houston has been aiding New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

[cthomer5000]

As a quasi Jets fan, they have to trade up and take Bush. Before I wanted them to take Ferguson, and I still do if he will be there at 4, but Bush is special and they need a special player with their crap offense.

Oh yeah, it'll take a special player to run behind a line that will have to be composed of undrafted free agents! I pray Bush goes at #2 - and not to the Jets. I do not want the Jets wasting the pick there. I think they can grab a nice back at #29 or #35 if they really want one.

[QuikSand]

just curious, what makes you so absolutely positive the Texans didn't make this "serious overture" to the Saints? It seems a bit naive to think they didn't make the phone call.

They may have made a call... but what I'm saying is they have to wait this out. There's no value in just jumping the gun and taking the #2-4 player on the board when there is a guy seen so widely as "special" -- the sort of guy who might really, really excite a team into making an absurd deal.

Making a call, hearing "uh, I don't think so" and then signing the deal with the second-tier guy of your choice does nothing but cut off your options. That's my complaint... the only way they can just take Williams at #1 is if they are sure there's no better option, especially an option to take him later and get something for the switch. Having it done today means by definition they aren't sure - they didn't even wait it out for one more day.

[cuervo72]

Maybe that really *is* what the Jets are thinking, Corey. I'd guess HOU called them up, and the Jets said no. If that's the case, they say no to the Saints too, right? Titans seem locked in on a QB, so who does that leave? GRE? SF? Do they [the Saints] go that far down or just end up taking Bush then?

[cthomer5000]

Making a call, hearing "uh, I don't think so" and then signing the deal with the second-tier guy of your choice does nothing but cut off your options. That's my complaint... the only way they can just take Williams at #1 is if they are sure there's no better option, especially an option to take him later and get something for the switch. Having it done today means by definition they aren't sure - they didn't even wait it out for one more day.

Agreed. Your logic on this is air-tight. The Texans gained absolutely nothing while acting so early, and potentially cost themselves quite a bit.

Damn do I love the NFL draft.

[jamesUMD]

I disagree with the people that are saying this was a good move.

What Reggie Bush would have done is make life easier on David Carr (another #1 overall pick who needs some pressure taken off of him in order to develop), Andre Johnson (another 1st rounder who experienced a sophmore slump), and newly aquired Eric Moulds. Bush would have been an investment in Carr, Johnson, and Moulds, whom they have already paid a significant price for.

Hell, lining up Bush in the backfield with Domanick Davis make life easier on Davis too, in the same way that lining up Deion Sanders, or Champ Bailey and then not even directing the play their way has done for other teams.

Add Mario Williams to a mediocre defense with an offensive minded coach and you have an average defense.

Add Reggie Bush to an offense with a developing set of skill players as noted above and the great defenses you play aren't as good when they can't decide where the ball is going, which alleviates the pressure on your defense.

Just my thoughts. And yes, I think Casserly is doo doo from way back when he was with Washington.

[sabotai]

They may have made a call... but what I'm saying is they have to wait this out. There's no value in just jumping the gun and taking the #2-4 player on the board when there is a guy seen so widely as "special" -- the sort of guy who might really, really excite a team into making an absurd deal.

Making a call, hearing "uh, I don't think so" and then signing the deal with the second-tier guy of your choice does nothing but cut off your options. That's my complaint... the only way they can just take Williams at #1 is if they are sure there's no better option, especially an option to take him later and get something for the switch. Having it done today means by definition they aren't sure - they didn't even wait it out for one more day.
One problem I have with your logic QS is no GM with a higher than single digit IQ would ever fall for it. They would know that Houston wanting to trade out of the first spot meant only one thing: They didn't want Reggie Bush.

So what team in their right mind would ever try to trade up to #1 to get Reggie Bush when they know he'd be there at #2? There's no way a team would ever trade up unless they secretly wanted Williams bad enough and stole him out from under Houston.

EDIT: Not to mention, working out a deal now probably saves you a lot of money. By waiting for the draft and then picking him, you open up the door for him to wait it out, see what the other top 5 picks get, and then want more. You know whoever takes Bush will probably give hima monster deal. Then, you'd have to pay Williams more. By signing him now, you lock him into a contract and what the #2 guy ends up with doesn't matter.

[RendeR]

Man am I glad I chose WIlliams number one to the Texans this morning in the solecismic contest!!

Whooot!

[johnnyshaka]

The Saints better pass on Bush otherwise my fantasy football season could be screwed!!!

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Yeah, I am of the same mind disagreeing with Quiksand on this. To think Houston didn't try everything possible to move down and trade the pick is ludicrous. In terms of waiting till tomorrow. Why? They wanted Williams meaning they couldn't trade down more than one or two spots. If NO, TEN, and NJY reject a trade, then what else are you waiting for? Then you throw in the fact that wanted Williams signed (and possibly without seeing what Bush signed for), it makes even more sense. As for the strategy itself, I think it's good. DE is top priority for them. They have Davis and can probably even get a good RB like White with the 2-1 pick. I even heard already on Total Access that Houston is trying to move up from the 2-1 pick into the late 1st round to do that or something similar.

And Casserly stated on the show that the deal is 6 years for 54 million with 26.5 million guaranteed. I could see Bush dropping a bit unless he convinces teams he will take Williams money. If he is going to hold out for more, I could see him falling to #5 or #6. I think that is doubtful but nothing would shock me now.

[evil homer]

gotta agree with cthomer on this one (maybe it's a homer thing :) )

as a jets season ticket holder, i want to see one of 2 scenarios:
1) #4 ferguson, #29 running back or another offensive lineman, #35 QB like clemons or croyle or the position not picked at 29.

2) trade down and get more picks.

as it stands now, the jets have 7 of the top 117 picks. they can really start to build a core of guys for the next few years. they should not give up 3 picks for a RB when they have no OL to speak of.

[Abe Sargent]

I disagree with the people that are saying this was a good move.

Add Mario Williams to a mediocre defense with an offensive minded coach and you have an average defense.

Add Reggie Bush to an offense with a developing set of skill players as noted above and the great defenses you play aren't as good when they can't decide where the ball is going, which alleviates the pressure on your defense.



First of all, what sort of an upgrade is Davis to Bush? Davis is already a solid RB, so its NOT as if the Texans have a gaping hole at RB and just choose to go with a DE for kicks. The Texans are already set at RB, this guy is just supposed to be better. How? Is he going to run for more yards per game? Davis already averages over 100 yards per game. Is he going to score a bunch of TDs? Is he a better blocker? A better pass catcher?

Assume that he is, across the board, better than Davis, (although a lot of scouts do not think Bush is this perfectly rounded player, and has weaknesses just like most). Let's say that Bush catches 2-3 more passes a game, rushes for 3-4 more TDs a year, a makes 2-3 more blocks a game. Is that upgrade worth your top pick when a guy is available who scouts think is great and fills a yawning hole in your defense?

I don't think so. I think this is a smart choice. Remember, Bush is just an upgrade from Davis, who is already good. Williams fills a hole and a need.


-Anxiety

[Deattribution]

Not to mention that Bush could be great, or he could be terrible - and he's only a lknee injury away from being a 30 million dollar liability. I think he will be good, but I don't think he'll be as good as he is hyped up to be, he was playing on an low calibre NFL team in college.

[RendeR]

Bush, in any real world setting, is overrated and not worth spending top dollar on...

[NoMyths]

Reading Peter King this week made it clear that the contract issue was a critical one for the Texans.

[sabotai]

Yeah, I am of the same mind disagreeing with Quiksand on this. To think Houston didn't try everything possible to move down and trade the pick is ludicrous. In terms of waiting till tomorrow. Why? They wanted Williams meaning they couldn't trade down more than one or two spots. If NO, TEN, and NJY reject a trade, then what else are you waiting for? Then you throw in the fact that wanted Williams signed (and possibly without seeing what Bush signed for), it makes even more sense.

Well, if we consider that Houston was considering taking either Williams or Bush, they can't move down 2 or 3 spots. If they moved down 2 or more spots, they run the risk of loseing both players.

Say they move to 3rd spot. The Titans move up to #1 and take Bush? No way. They want Leinart and they know, unless someone trades into the #2 spot, that they will get him. They might consider a small trade up to #2 to block any kind of trade like we've seen in the past (The Giants moved up one spot to take Shockey to block the Browns (?) from trading into the spot to get him).

But the Titans trading to #1 spot so they have to give Leinart #1 money? No way. The #1 pick was going to be Williams or Bush. Any team want Leinart bad enough would be looking to move up to the #2 spot to get him.

The Jets? Ok, say the Jets want Reggie Bush bad enough to trade up. QS said it himself, there is a concensus #1 player in the draft. The team holding the #1 pick wanting to trade down only means one thing. They don't want the concensus #1 pick in the draft. So the Jets trade into the #2 spot to get him, not the #1 spot. But ok, let's just for argument's sake say that the Jets do want to move into the #1 spot to get Reggie Bush

Trading down to #4 means that the Texans can kiss both Williams and Bush goodbye. Why would the Texans make that move? Now that would truely be stupid. (Someone trades into the #1 spot to get Bush, then a team trades into the #2 or #3 spot to get Williams and Houston gets neither)

So they really only have one play, a trade with the Saints. But it goes back to the idea that if the team with the #1 pick is trading down when there is a concensus #1 player, it only means one thing. I don't buy that "we don't know what we want, so let's trade draft picks and you give me a shitload of stuff and you can have your pick" would ever have a chance of working. I haven't seen anything that would suggest that the Saints thought so highly of Bush or Williams that they'd trade up to get either. I'm sure the Saints would be more than happy to sit back and take whichever one fell to them.

I don't disagree with the idea of Houston trading down a spot. It does make sense for Houston. What doesn't make sense is for them to go below #2, and it doesn't make sense for the Saints to trade up.

[stevew]

Are there any actual diehard "Texans fans"(sic?) on this board?

[sabotai]

Davis already averages over 100 yards per game.

RUSHING <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="bg1" valign="top"> <th>Year</th> <th>Team</th> <th>G</th> <th>GS</th> <th>Att</th> <th>Yards</th> <th>Avg</th> <th>Lg</th> <th>TD</th> <th>20+</th> <th>FD</th> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>2003</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>14</td><td>10</td><td>238</td><td>1031</td><td>4.3</td><td>51</td><td>8</td><td>5</td><td>47</td> </tr> <tr class="bg3"> <td>2004</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>15</td><td>15</td><td>302</td><td>1188</td><td>3.9</td><td>44</td><td>13</td><td>5</td><td>56</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td>2005</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>11</td><td>11</td><td>230</td><td>976</td><td>4.2</td><td>44</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>39</td> </tr> <tr class="bg4"> <td>TOTAL</td><td>
</td><td>40</td><td>36</td><td>770</td><td>3195</td><td>4.1</td><td>51</td><td>23</td><td>13</td><td>142</td></tr></tbody></table>

That doesn't look like a 100 yards per game average to me. :p

[yabanci]

They may have made a call... but what I'm saying is they have to wait this out. There's no value in just jumping the gun and taking the #2-4 player on the board when there is a guy seen so widely as "special" -- the sort of guy who might really, really excite a team into making an absurd deal.

Making a call, hearing "uh, I don't think so" and then signing the deal with the second-tier guy of your choice does nothing but cut off your options. That's my complaint... the only way they can just take Williams at #1 is if they are sure there's no better option, especially an option to take him later and get something for the switch. Having it done today means by definition they aren't sure - they didn't even wait it out for one more day.

I think you're wrong on this for the reasons already pointed out by Sabotai and Vinateri. There's a reason why every year the team with the #1 pick does everything possible to get a deal done before the draft. You do the deal when you are in the best possible bargaining position. You don't wait until after the draft when you're at the player's mercy in contract negotiations. You don't want Williams sitting around waiting to see what some team is going to overpay Bush so he can demand a premium on top of it. You don't screw your bargaining position chasing some fantasy that suddenly, after all these months, the tooth fairy is going to leave an absurd trade offer under your pillow. This is the day before the draft. If you don't have any viable trade offers and decide that Williams is your guy, you do the deal.

[VPI97]

From a personnel perspective, I think Williams is a far better choice than Bush. Not only do defensive ends have more impact to a team's success than running backs, but there's probably a few more other positions that that you could put ahead of RB.

Trivia - In the last 25 drafts, only two running backs taken in the top 10 have ever led the team that drafted them to a Super Bowl appearance. Marcus Allen (#10 selection by the Raiders in 1982) and Jamal Lewis (#5 selection by the Ravens in 2000).

[stevew]

Last year's super bowl winning RB wasn't even drafted.

[Daimyo]

I love the pick of Williams, but I also think they should have held off until tomorrow to make the pick. I don't think New Orleans ever really expected to have a shot at Bush so you have to give them a little time to mull the opportunity.

[Abe Sargent]

That doesn't look like a 100 yards per game average to me. :p


I'm quoting someone from earlier in the thread. Yell at them :)

Its not like the Texans don't have a good RB. Dom. Davis has averaged 100+ yards a game his first 3 years in the league. He is a tough runner who also works hard to block and catches the ball well.

I think either the Saints or Texans could use Bush as a multi purpose offensive weapon even though they both already have RBs that can run well between the tackles. But both also have other needs, and there are a few top prospects at the top of the board.


-Anxiety

[Vince]

...To think Houston didn't try everything possible to move down and trade the pick is ludicrous...

Yeah, that'd be like a team failing to make their pick in their allotted time, and allowing a team behind them to make a pick instead. Never happen.

I see where you, Sabotai and others are coming from, but I just don't buy that Houston shopping the pick is a dead giveaway that they don't want Reggie Bush. I mean, lately EVERYONE was talking about Mario Williams skyrocketing up draft charts, and yet 99% of people still thought that Reggie Bush would be the #1 overall (ok, hyperbole on the 99% thing, but you get the point). People have been absolutely DROOLING over Bush -- scouts giving him absurd ratings, people claiming he's enough to build a franchise out of, etc, etc. Why wouldn't a team with a pretty strong RB and many other needs be looking at a trade down? Sure, since it seems they really wanted Mario Williams, they couldn't afford to trade down more than one pick. And if NO gave them the cold shoulder, they didn't have many options. Waiting 16 hours wouldn't have killed them, though, and could have possibly gotten them a great return on their investment.

Perhaps Houston was stuck between a rock and a hard place, and the New Orleans front office was convinced they didn't like Bush, and would have stood pat no matter the situation. But making your pick now eliminates any second-guessing, and paints you into the worst possible scenario.

[mtolson]

From a personnel perspective, I think Williams is a far better choice than Bush. Not only do defensive ends have more impact to a team's success than running backs, but there's probably a few more other positions that that you could put ahead of RB.

Trivia - In the last 25 drafts, only two running backs taken in the top 10 have ever led the team that drafted them to a Super Bowl appearance. Marcus Allen (#10 selection by the Raiders in 1982) and Jamal Lewis (#5 selection by the Ravens in 2000).

So are you saying the selection Eric Dickerson, Gerald Riggs, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis, Fred TaylorEdgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson were worthless top 10 picks just because they never led the team drafting them to the SuperBowl. How many top 10 DE have led the team drafting them to superbowls.

1982 - None
1983 - None
1984 - None
1985 - Bruce Smith
1986 - None
1987 - None
1988 - None
1989 - None
1990 - None
1991 - None
1992 - None
1993 - None
1994 - None
1995 - Kevin Carter
1996 - None
1997 - None
1998 - Grant Wistrom
1999 - None
2000 - None
2001 - None
2002 - None
2003 - None
2004 - None
2005 - None

Now, Keven Carter and Grant Wistrom were members of the "Fastest Show On Turf" teams which were lead by Marshall Faulk. Your case for DE's leading to superbowls is not that strong.

I bet in 1989 Green Bay wished they hadn't selected Tony Mandarich over Barry Sanders. I bet Cincinnati wished they would have selected Marshall Faulk insteasd of Dan Wilkinson. Maybe the second is a bad example, after all we are talking about Cincinnati, the teams that choose hopeless Penn States backs.

[Vince]

I wonder how many top ten picks from the last 25 years have been in a Superbowl in general?

[mtolson]

Not to mention that Bush could be great, or he could be terrible - and he's only a lknee injury away from being a 30 million dollar liability. I think he will be good, but I don't think he'll be as good as he is hyped up to be, he was playing on an low calibre NFL team in college.

So were Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Earl Campbell, Jim Brown, Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders. The fact of the matter is that Reggie Bush dominated college in the same manner as others in this list.

[Deattribution]

So were Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Earl Campbell, Jim Brown, Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders. The fact of the matter is that Reggie Bush dominated college in the same manner as others in this list.

Wow I wasn't aware a Sun bowl and Holiday bowl appearence made Barry's team NFL calibre. I am sure I could look into the others (I'm sure there were some good teams too) but you'd probably just do some more random name dropping.

Bush hasn't even touched the ball yet, he's not even in the same stratosphere of any of the guys listed yet, if ever.

[Deattribution]

Dola

and just to put his team in perspective, USC has 3 players projected to go in the top 10, with White as a possible wild-card, likely to atleast go in the first round, possibly top 15. They'll also be 2 or 3 more USC players going in the top 15 next year too.

It's just sickening to hear them talk about how he's the best running back in the NFL already, and a total insult to LT.

[VPI97]

So are you saying the selection Eric Dickerson, Gerald Riggs, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson were worthless top 10 picks just because they never led the team drafting them to the SuperBowl.
I don't know where in the world you came up with 'worthless', but I'm pretty sure the GM's that drafted those guys didn't say "We hope that with [fill in the blank] in the backfield, one day we'll fulfill our dream of a ten win season and a second round loss in the playoffs". All I'm saying is that running back isn't one of the top positions to look towards if you're trying to maximize team performance.

How many top 10 DE have led the team drafting them to superbowls....Your case for DE's leading to superbowls is not that strong.
You left out Julius Peppers, Bryant Young, Leslie O'Neal & Ken Sims as top 10 DE's who made it to a Super Bowl with their original teams.

Edit - and since Bruce did it four times, he counts quadruple. :)

[Shkspr]

That doesn't look like a 100 yards per game average to me. :p

If I can do so without looking like I care whether Domanick Davis lives or dies, I think the original poster probably meant 100+ yards per game rushing and receiving combined, given that "catches the ball well" was one of the points offered in Davis' defense.

[Abe Sargent]

The problem with the Bush apologists in this thread is that most are ignoring the simple fact that RBs can be found elsewhere than the top of the draft. High caliber Backs are everywhere. DEs are not. I've not heard a good reason why this basic scarcity of DEs but plethora of RBs should not enter Houston's reasoning and lead them to take a DE instead of a RB.

If you doubt me, look no further than Shaun Alexander, the NFL MVP RB who, incidentally, was dangled for a trade last offseason and any team could have traded for.

I could continue with undrafted free agents (Willie Parker), free agents (Stephen Davis) in addition to later round draft picks, but I won't.

Hell, the Texans could probably get a fine RB at the top of the second round if they wanted to.



-Anxiety

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Vince, you're missing one of the main points we were making. With no deal on the horizon, waiting 16 hours would hurt you because you wouldn't have Williams signed by the draft. Also, nobody is saying that by initiating trade talks they signalled for sure they were not taking Bush. But quite obviously, NO called their bluff and offered them nothing. Which is exactly what I would do as NO.

As for equating Minnesota being late on a pick with Houston's not making best efforts at a trade is a very bad comparison. One involves the spur of the moment decision making while on the clock, and perhaps on the telephone with someone right then and there trying to make a trade. Houston's situation involved months and weeks of working up a trade with NO.

[Deattribution]

The problem with the Bush apologists in this thread is that most are ignoring the simple fact that RBs can be found elsewhere than the top of the draft. High caliber Backs are everywhere. DEs are not. I've not heard a good reason why this basic scarcity of DEs but plethora of RBs should not enter Houston's reasoning and lead them to take a DE instead of a RB.

-Anxiety

And both LenDale White and Deangelo Williams should be good solid picks for any team looking for a RB. Williams could possibly end up being the best RB in the draft when it's all said and done. That's not even counting any gems that can be found in the later rounds.

[yabanci]

oops.

Media and fans aren't the only ones who assemble mock drafts. This is Reggie Bush's top five:
1. Houston: Bush
2. New Orleans: Virginia offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson
3. Tennessee: USC quarterback Matt Leinart
4. Jets: Texas quarterback Vince Young
5: Green Bay: North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/features/blog

[kingfc22]

OH PLEASE GOD. Let Bush fall to the Niners at 6!!!!!!

[Fouts]

Did anyone have Bush not going #1? Please step forward if you did.

Yep, but I guess my point was I had already filled out my draft challenge. Anyone filling theirs out now has a 15 point advantage.

[AlexB]

I do not think its a bad pick for the Texans- they have Dominick Davis, who isn't near the back of Bush- but he has done well....He can get it done, and RB wasn't a HUGE need. DE is, and Mario could be a Julius Peppers type player, very worthy of # 1 overall.

As I know next to nothing about college football, take this FWIW, but all the talk about Young, Cutler, Leinart and Bush was a bit strange to me as they had signed Carr to an extension, Davis is a decnet back, and a 2-14 team should not IMHO be drafting a player is a position where they have good players already - their weaknesses are wide and varied, and are higher priorities.

Of course, this is based on the Texans roster only, with no idea of the real standard of the draftees in question.

[QuikSand]

I think you're wrong on this for the reasons already pointed out by Sabotai and Vinateri. There's a reason why every year the team with the #1 pick does everything possible to get a deal done before the draft. You do the deal when you are in the best possible bargaining position. You don't wait until after the draft when you're at the player's mercy in contract negotiations. You don't want Williams sitting around waiting to see what some team is going to overpay Bush so he can demand a premium on top of it. You don't screw your bargaining position chasing some fantasy that suddenly, after all these months, the tooth fairy is going to leave an absurd trade offer under your pillow. This is the day before the draft. If you don't have any viable trade offers and decide that Williams is your guy, you do the deal.

And I think this is absurd -- if the Teaxnsa are building their team around the concept of "bargaining position" and nickel-diming down a contract with their top pick, then (1) they pretty obviously failed at doing so, since the deal with Williams is substantially higher than last year's 1(1) who was a QB, and more importantly (2) they are dooming themselves to mediocity or worse by letting that be their guiding principle while other, successful, teams focus on excellence rather than tiny increments of economization.

My whole point about this situation is that this is not an ordinary draft situation. This isn't at all like last year's draft, where the guy who went at #1 overall coudl jsut have easily sliped to #5 or #10 if the right teams had passed -- look at Aaron Rogers, at one point the #1a pick, right? No, this draft is special, specificaly because it has Reggie Bush in it, and a substantial number of experts, right or wrong, are saying this guy is fucking Gale Sayers. You get that kind of standout franchise draft pick only every so often, I think -- Michael Vick was almost certainly the last one, maybe John Elway before him.

When there is a "back up the truck" guy out there, and you have a shot to get him but decide that you can live without him (again, rightly or wrongly), then your obligation is to at least give the other teams a chance to indeed back up the truck.

The Saints, like everyone else, have presumably been looking at players other than Bush, with the very reasonable assumption that the Texans would do the predictable thing and take him. So, they were looking at DE Williams and, I understand, LT Ferguson. If you're the Texans and you have half a brain (work with me here) you don't call and top your hand completely "we don't want Reggie Bush," but instead you call and say something like "Listen, we really have these two guys graded just about equally... and we're still comfortable with either one. Please give it some thought, but for a package of your second rounder this year and your third rounder next year, we'll move down to #2." (Specifics not that critical) Again, if it doesn't pan out, you can still just draft Williams anyway -- hell, you can even have his agents agreeing in principle to a deal conditioned on being the #1 pick in advance. But the point is you have to give yourself a chance to get something for nothing here... the team with Gale Sayers in its eyes isn't going to worry about what it gave up to get him... and you still get your guy anyway. The Saints won't take this trade unless it opens a door they didn't see opening previously (Bush), so I think the risk of not getting "your guy" is very modest.


Again -- I'm just focusing on getting maximum capital out of the situation, I'm not necessarily being critical of not taking Bush. And if to you, the most important thing to do is squeeze that already-slotted contract with Williams from $55.5 million to $54 million over the six years... okay, then, we'll have to agree to disagree. I reckon we're there anyway.

[QuikSand]

One problem I have with your logic QS is no GM with a higher than single digit IQ would ever fall for it. They would know that Houston wanting to trade out of the first spot meant only one thing: They didn't want Reggie Bush.

So nobody would EVER make a draft-day trade to move up one spot? Ever?

[Tigercat]

RUSHING
That doesn't look like a 100 yards per game average to me. :p

Dom Davis has averaged over 110 TOTAL yards a game for his career. No one said anything about just rushing, or at least I didn't. (Also, keep in mind that most of DD's catches are very short and basically runs.)

[Logan]

So nobody would EVER make a draft-day trade to move up one spot? Ever?

You've made this point before. Yes, there have been plenty of situations where a team traded up one slot to secure a player when another team who wanted the same player could jump up and grab him (hell, I'm hoping if Young is still available at 6 today, the Niners can convince the Raiders to jump up a slot). But has it happened before with the #1 overall pick (Not rhetorical...but I don't think it has)? As others have pointed out, it's very different with the top pick.

And you still haven't gotten past the point that the Saints had NO reason to trade up a pick. They would get one of the two players they covet (Williams and Ferguson) if they stood pat, and we don't even know what their feelings are on Bush because I bet they never expected him to be there. Plus they would have to pay a #1 pick contract. Not to mention that the #2 pick is easier to trade into than the #1 spot, if that's what they're looking to do.

[Thomkal]

Well I have to say I never quite understood the Bush to Houston "certainty", and I'm actually happy the so called "draft experts" on TV and the paper got it wrong. :)

I just don't see the logic in taking Bush to be a part-time player when you have Davis already at that position. Will Bush be better than Davis? Probably, but why have your 1st round pick, #1 overall be a platoon player with Davis? The only way I saw the Texans take Bush is if they were concerned about Davis's injury history or if they traded Davis before/day of the draft.

I do think the Texans should have waited until today before signing Williams, hoping for any last-second deals to come their way. I really can't believe the Jets with their multiple picks didn't camp out on Houston's doorstep until they made a deal to move up to the top pick. Still may happen with the Saints now, but I have to believe the Saints are going to be asking for the same things the Texans might have in any trade talk.

I don't think New Orleans is a good fit for Bush either, though a better spot than with Texas. Not sure how they feel about Deuce these days in New Orleans. I think they would do very well to trade down with the Jets and get Ferguson at #4. Don't think they would get him if they traded with the 49'ers, and that seems to be the guy they would want now that the DE is off the board.

[cthomer5000]

I really can't believe the Jets with their multiple picks didn't camp out on Houston's doorstep until they made a deal to move up to the top pick.

The Jets have so many glaring needs that I hope they realized trading up would be an awful decision. I'm still nervous they're going to trade up. They need to hold at 4 or possibly even move down.

[Anthony]

no need to trade if you're the Jets - #4 overall in a 5 player draft is great (i'm not counting Vernon Davis cuz i don't think TE's should be selected that high, especially w/ the Jets' luck). 5 bona-fide players this year and the Jets are a lock to get one of them (providing they don't trade down), plus they have like 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. it's gonna be hard to screw this one up. no matter what - they need to stand pat and just roll with their #4.

[QuikSand]

And you still haven't gotten past the point that the Saints had NO reason to trade up a pick. They would get one of the two players they covet (Williams and Ferguson) if they stood pat, and we don't even know what their feelings are on Bush because I bet they never expected him to be there.

You do see the contradiction right there, within your own statement, don't you? They don't want Bush, they want the other guys they thought tyhey'd have to settle for because they didn't expect to see Bush. Right.

And spare me this nonsense about the awful contracts of top picks. It's a complete red herring, nobody shies away from taking the player they really want based on his incremental draft slot - that's nonsense. The reason top draft picks are worth the most is that the increased contract value is a trivial offset to the perceived value of the top player.

[sabotai]

So nobody would EVER make a draft-day trade to move up one spot? Ever?

Wow. Never would have expected such low reading comprehension skills form you QS. I didn't even come CLOSE to saying such a thing.

[Logan]

You do see the contradiction right there, within your own statement, don't you? They don't want Bush, they want the other guys they thought tyhey'd have to settle for because they didn't expect to see Bush. Right.

Ok fine...so they will still get a shot at 2 of the 3 players they covet. You still haven't given one reason why NO would give up any extra value just to get Bush.

[Deattribution]

QS fighting a losing battle here, N.O had no reason to trade up, they could have gotten Williams if Texans had taken Bush, or Lienart, or Young, Or Davis, or Ferguson, or Hawk and all of the guys would have been solid picks for N.O. Saints had the best spot and no reason to move up, only down.

[QuikSand]

Ok fine...so they will still get a shot at 2 of the 3 players they covet. You still haven't given one reason why NO would give up any extra value just to get Bush.

The central point of my argument is that underlined phrase. If Bush is a guy who is a once-a-decade rare talent (like many think he is) to just pass on him is absurd. If you don't want him, work out a deal, or at least explore every avenue to doing so. That's my only argument here.

[QuikSand]

QS fighting a losing battle here, N.O had no reason to trade up, they could have gotten Williams if Texans had taken Bush, or Lienart, or Young, Or Davis, or Ferguson, or Hawk and all of the guys would have been solid picks for N.O. Saints had the best spot and no reason to move up, only down.

The only reason I got into this argument, for what it's worth, is the puddles of drool that have been forming over Reggie Bushg for months. It's not just that he was the "maybe best player" but in many people's eyes, he was the best player in years.

The Saints can say how happy they were to land Williams or Fergusoin, but that was when theu had assumed that dealing up was simply out of the question -- nobody deals down and gives up a chance to take the obvious top dog. I think with some reasonably savvy action from the Texans, they could very possibly worked out a deal. They showed no patience, no creativity, and in my mind, have just screwed themselves once again.

[albionmoonlight]

Now, of course, every team says that it is estatic with the player that it got, so take this anticdote with that in mind. But to support Quik's point about the Saints maybe being interested in Reggie Bush . . . apparently the war room staff was out to dinner when they heard that the Texans were picking Williams. When they heard the news, they all started cheering, and Coach Payton spent the rest of dinner drawing up plays for Deuce and Bush on napkins.

The napkin story is, to me, kind of telling. This isn't just "a guy with higher value fell to us." This is an offensive coach so excited by the possibility of getting a player that he's drawing things up on a freakin napkin.

So, I think that had the Texans played things right, they could have at least gotten interest from the Saints (or the Titans who apparently were the closest to trading up to #2 and getting Bush themselves. (Of course, at #3 maybe Williams isn't there)).

[ISiddiqui]

Wow, what a Hell of story. The Saints coaching staff must have thought somehow they've been blessed if that story is accurate.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

If you're the Texans and you have half a brain (work with me here) you don't call and top your hand completely "we don't want Reggie Bush," but instead you call and say something like "Listen, we really have these two guys graded just about equally... and we're still comfortable with either one. Please give it some thought, but for a package of your second rounder this year and your third rounder next year, we'll move down to #2." (Specifics not that critical) Again, if it doesn't pan out, you can still just draft Williams anyway -- hell, you can even have his agents agreeing in principle to a deal conditioned on being the #1 pick in advance.

I'll finish this off here. Yes, this is what you would do. And you have to assume the Texans ALREADY had this conversation with NO up until Friday. Once NO says no, sorry, we're not interested; then you get your deal with Williams and pick him. NO called their bluff, it's a simple as that.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

And spare me this nonsense about the awful contracts of top picks. It's a complete red herring, nobody shies away from taking the player they really want based on his incremental draft slot - that's nonsense. The reason top draft picks are worth the most is that the increased contract value is a trivial offset to the perceived value of the top player.

Well, I have to disagree to the extent that I firmly believe some teams take "signability" into account in drafting players at the top end.

[stevew]

Looking back at it after the past couple of days, the Texans lost all leverage for the top pick back when they decided that David Carr was their QB of the "near future." If they would have not activated that option bonus, suddenly they had a great opportunity to make their team significantly better, and perhaps even the chance to still land Williams.

They could have traded down with any of the next 4 or 5 teams in the draft, and probably gotten quite a bit for doing so. And at worst could have come out of the draft with probably a future #1 pcik and an additional #2 this year, plus also one of the following Leinart, Williams, Young, Hawk, Davis or D'Brick. If you don't take a QB, and Carr booms this year, I believe they still could have franchised him after this season and worked out a new deal. After 4 years do we even know if Carr is that much better than say, Luke McCown.

[Vince]

Vince, you're missing one of the main points we were making. With no deal on the horizon, waiting 16 hours would hurt you because you wouldn't have Williams signed by the draft. Also, nobody is saying that by initiating trade talks they signalled for sure they were not taking Bush. But quite obviously, NO called their bluff and offered them nothing. Which is exactly what I would do as NO.

As for equating Minnesota being late on a pick with Houston's not making best efforts at a trade is a very bad comparison. One involves the spur of the moment decision making while on the clock, and perhaps on the telephone with someone right then and there trying to make a trade. Houston's situation involved months and weeks of working up a trade with NO.

I missed this from before...

I'm with Quiksand on this one -- I don't think that teams really take having a contract in place THAT seriously. The 49ers did with Alex Smith because he was obviously who they were going to take -- it was either him or Aaron Rogers, and there wasn't really all that much of a possibility of a trade down. I think that in a situation like this, with such a top-heavy draft, the trade value for that #1 is astronomical -- I think that the 'signability' being a major factor in a team's decisionmaking process is one of two things: 1) Coachspeak for this is the guy we wanted, here's an excuse to try and convince the media/fans/everyone else that we made the right move, or 2) Idiocy. I think that once a team has the #1 overall, and has resigned themselves to making a selection with it, they know they're paying top dollar, and a bit extra for one guy versus another is pretty ridiculous.

As for the second point -- I understand the two situations are different, but they involve the same thing: gross stupidity. I think that the Vikings sitting idly by (frantically or not, they were idle) and watching two players selected before them in the draft is one of the stupidest things I have ever seen, and is right up there next to Houston NOT entertaining offers for a trade out of #1 if they didn't want Reggie Bush. Now, we aren't sure that they didn't, but gross stupidity HAS been demonstrated at the NFL level before, and I wouldn't just rule it out out of hand.

The reason I bring this up is because up until it was announced that Mario Williams was signed by the Texans, a VAST MAJORITY of people were pretty sure that Reggie Bush was going to be the #1 overall pick. I can't imagine that the Saints knew (or even thought) that the Texans weren't going to pick Bush. Obviously, in hindsight, the Saints are pretty happy with Bush -- I can't believe that they wouldn't even consider trading up to get him.

Your position on the Saints is spot-on -- they had no reason to accept a trade, or even enter into negotiations at the point where the Texans made it official that they had signed Bush. In their shoes, I wouldn't have done anything either, in hopes that the scenario that actually played out would happen. But the closer you get to the draft, and the closer the Saints got to OFFICIALLY not getting Bush, the more likely they might have been to opening themselves up to those negotiations. For all I know, they had decided that they were perfectly happy with Mario Williams/D'Brickashaw Ferguson at #2 overall, and weren't going to offer the Texans anything, no matter what. And that is certainly a possibility. But with how happy they were to pick Bush, I can't imagine that they were never going to offer anything.

[stevew]

Season over for Texans running back Davis
By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com

Convinced that his left knee would preclude him from being ready for the start of the season, and that he probably would not be a factor this year because of his continuing physical problems, the Houston Texans on Saturday placed tailback Domanick Davis on injured reserve.

[Glengoyne]

Season over for Texans running back Davis
By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com

Convinced that his left knee would preclude him from being ready for the start of the season, and that he probably would not be a factor this year because of his continuing physical problems, the Houston Texans on Saturday placed tailback Domanick Davis on injured reserve.

/Que Nelson Voice. HAa Ha