FOFC Highlander #12: JeeberD and the Gang of Four -- RESULTS POSTED!

[Passacaglia]

This version of Highlander is set -- where else? The Olive Garden. As preparations for the Neverending Pasta Bowl progress, our fearless hero, JeeberD, finds himself too busy to post enough at FOFC. Having just passed 20,000 posts, he can't stop now! People are expecting more posts! He needs to increase his post count, even if he can't post!

To solve this problem, JeeberD searches for recruits. He checks FOFC's member list, and finds 4371 members. JeeberD, using his new mod powers, decides to choose four members from the list at random, and turn their posts into his own. How many posts will JeeberD gain?

Send answers to be via PM. The deadline is 4:30 PM, Eastern Time. Questions? Feel free to ask in the thread.

------------
Highlander winners to date:
Chas in Cinti #4 (5/18/06)
Pumpy Tudors #2 (5/16/06), #6 (5/23/06)
Toddzilla #5 (5/20/06)
wbatl #1 (5/15/06)
Wolfpack #3 (5/17/06), #7 (5/24/06)
Mustang #8 (5/25/06)
digamma #9 (5/26/06)
Raiders Army #10 (5/30/06)
Passacaglia #11 (6/1/06)

[Chas in Cinti]

Ummm... don't we need more data here? Like the average posts/user, or at least /day? Or something? Or is that data out there, and I'm just missing it?

Regards,
Chas

[albionmoonlight]

Ummm... don't we need more data here? Like the average posts/user, or at least /day? Or something? Or is that data out there, and I'm just missing it?

Regards,
Chas

Well, according to the problem, there are 4,371 members. And, according to the board, there are 1,130,862 posts. So that should be a good start. Of course, there are issues with those posts not being evenly distributed, but I have no idea how to handle that.

[wbatl1]

OK, one clarification needed. Is this asking the posts he will gain when he gets their posts-a one time deal, or posts he gets when they post...I'm confused:confused:

[SirFozzie]

if you take the post totals of four random FOFC users and add them to Jeebies post total, how much will he go up by.

[Joe]

why would he choose at random and not just pick the next 4 highest?

[Raiders Army]

why would he choose at random and not just pick the next 4 highest?
He doesn't want to piss off Skydog, QS, EF, or rkmsuf. :)

[SirFozzie]

Or me!

[BrianD]

I've got my pick in.

[rkmsuf]

He doesn't want to piss off Skydog, QS, EF, or rkmsuf. :)

I'll post for him if he makes it worth my while.

[Passacaglia]

if you take the post totals of four random FOFC users and add them to Jeebies post total, how much will he go up by.

Foz is right -- it's a one time deal.

[Passacaglia]

bump

one hour left

[Passacaglia]

Results time!

According to albionmoonlight, there were 1,130,862 posts at the time (I'm sure the posts made during the day today don't really make any significant change). I don't know how he got that, but if it's true, it works out to an average 0f 258.66 posts per user.

Of course, the problem was the large variance. Some of you might have made your way to the members list, to get a glimpse of the distribution of posts per member. As a couple people mentioned in their PMs, there was a pretty good chance of Jeeber not gaining any posts, as several members have never posted. As a result, the guesses people sent in were all over the place -- from as low as 66, and as high as 7750.

Anyway, on to our story:

JeeberD looks for his first victim: He spots armc13 -- an old school guy, who joined in February 2001. Unfortunately, armc13 has not made his voice heard. No posts earned.

Next up, OSUCowboys. Since he's from Oklahoma, Jeebs has probably held a grudge against this guy since he joined in February 2002. However, the rivalry has been quite one-sided, as Jeebs is currently winning the post-count battle, 20,000+ to 0. No posts earned.

Jeeber's next victim is commish. Maybe this guy was the commissioner of one of Jeeber's several MP leagues, and Jeebs just didn't like the way it was run. However, commish's join date of August 2002 was well before any MP leagues began. I guess with no MP leagues running, commish decided not to bother posting. No posts earned.

Finally, Jeebs makes one last-ditch attempt to pad his post count. He closes his eyes, praying to find someone who actually has some posts. He spots Desmond, who just joined FOFC in December 2005! Surely if these old vets haven't been able to figure out how to post, Desmond surely can't! But Desmond is a wise one, and has managed to write 331 posts. Score!

Congratulations to BrianD, who was closest with his guess of 427.

[SirFozzie]

Damn. I thought I had a good guess with 750 :)

[Passacaglia]

Some props to Pumpy for his low guess of 66. With 3310 of the 4372 members posting 16 posts or less, each of Jeeber's random draws had a 76% chance of being in this area. The chance of all 4 members having 16 or less posts, then, is 33%. That ignores the possibilities of one members having somewhere from 16 to 66 posts, and the other having far less than 16, but still keeping the total number of posts at 66 or less. And even that ignores the total posts being closer to 66 than the 2nd lowest guess, which I think was 81.

Personally, I had no idea what to guess, but 14 just popped into my head for some reason. As the guesses came in, I really thought that the low bid would take it. Stupid Desmond had to ruin everything!

Oh, and by the way, Foz, your guess was 150! So, I guess you were closer than you thought? :)

[Joe]

I still think he shouldn't have been so random. Jeebs would have gained many more posts.

[JeeberD]

Dude, that was some stupid picking on my part...