Weaver vs Hernandez

[Chief Rum]

Super prospect versus super prospect when the Angels meet the M's tomorrow night. SHould be a good one.

[DeToxRox]

Super prospect versus super prospect when the Angels meet the M's tomorrow night. SHould be a good one.

Ehh.

Verlander vs Hernandez was more interesting. I may be biased though. :)

I think I speak for everyone though when I say bring on Verlander vs Liriano

[lynchjm24]

Jered Weaver is far from a super-prospect.

[DeToxRox]

Jered Weaver is far from a super-prospect.

I'd like to concur with that too.

He gives up so many fly balls it's rediculous. I wouldn't be surprised if he ever gave up 35-40 HR in a year.

[ISiddiqui]

Ditto... and Verlander v. Hernandez is much more a superprospect v. superprospect.

[dawgfan]

Hernandez vs. Liriano earlier this season was a hell of a match-up.

King Felix's ERA isn't pretty this year, but all his peripherals indicate he's still a top prospect. He's had bad luck both with batting average on balls in play as well as the number of fly balls that have gone for home runs. On the flip side, his strikeout rate remains high, his strikeout to walk ratio is good, and his groundball rate is still quite high (though not as awesome as it was last year).

He's struggling a bit with commanding his fastball, leaving it too high in the zone too often, and his pitch selection/sequences have been too predictable. He's been too stubborn trying to 'establish' his fastball early in the count. His 4-seam fastball is a very good pitch, usually between 94-98 MPH, but when hitters know it's coming they can handle it. His curveball is lethal, and his change is good enough to be a tremendous weapon mixed in with his heater - if he'd use his off-speed stuff a little more, he'd have a lot more success. Most teams have him scouted pretty well, and you'll notice most hitters are completely laying off his off-speed stuff and looking for the fastball only.

Anyway, the M's are right in the thick of the AL West race (thanks to the ineptness of the division) despite the best efforts of Mike Hargrove to sabotage the team. The M's have the best run-differential in the West, so they're not a fluke, but Oakland is getting some good players back off the DL and I expect Billy Beane to make his usual smart trade deadline moves to propel Oakland in the 2nd half. Still, if Seattle had a manager with half a brain we'd probably already be in 1st place.

[Schmidty]

"King" Felix is by far the most idiotic nickname I've heard. The dude hasn't done jack shit in the league, and they coronate him as King? Fuck that.

I can't stand him or the Mariners, although I really like Moyer (great guy), and Ichiro (self-explanatory).

Give me Liriano, Verlander, Papelbon, or Zumaya (or even Zach Miner) every time over that fat poseur.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

I guess I'm just sick of the Mariners being shoved down my throat here when I'm a Tigers fan.

[ISiddiqui]

King Felix is pretty dumb... isn't Pujols already called Prince Albert? You can't be the King if Pujols is only a Prince!

[Schmidty]

King Felix is pretty dumb... isn't Pujols already called King Albert? You can't steal some other dude's nickname if he's still active like that!

Plus, Pujols has done great things, while all Felix has is "potential".

I REALLY respect Mariner fans - They are rabid and faithful, but they think every player on their team is the next Ruth or Clemens.

[ISiddiqui]

I heard King Albert on Baseball Tonight.. damn Harold Reynolds leading me astry... its Prince Albert... hence original post modified.

[Schmidty]

I heard King Albert on Baseball Tonight.. damn Harold Reynolds leading me astry... its Prince Albert... hence original post modified.

Well there you go. If Pujols is only a Prince, how in the hell is Felix a King? He's more like a peasant at this point. A peasant with "potential".

[MrBug708]

How is Weaver not a super prospect?

[st.cronin]

How is Weaver not a super prospect?

He's not even close to being as good a prospect as Ryan Anderson was. But he's a better prospect than Curt Schilling was.

[MrBug708]

Weaver would have been the top choice if not for money issues with signing?!?

[Chief Rum]

Weaver would have been the top choice if not for money issues with signing?!?

Exactly. Weaver would have been #1 far and away in the same draft with Verlander.

Don't be fooled because he doesn't throw it 99 mph. He's going to be a very good pitcher (may already be actually).

He's behind Liriano, Hernandez and Verlander right now because they have been pitching in the bigs and shwoing off their stuff, but don't think he's crap just because he hasn't had a chance to really show his stuff yet.

[Chief Rum]

Dola,

I think Hernandez is ridiculously talented and the best of the four. But I would put Weaver against Liriano and Verlander longterm any day.

[dawgfan]

Dola.

I guess I'm just sick of the Mariners being shoved down my throat here when I'm a Tigers fan.
You live in Bellingham, Washington, a 1.5 hour drive from Seattle, and you complain about having the Mariners "shoved down your throat"? Are you fucking serious?

[dawgfan]

Exactly. Weaver would have been #1 far and away in the same draft with Verlander.

Don't be fooled because he doesn't throw it 99 mph. He's going to be a very good pitcher (may already be actually).

He's behind Liriano, Hernandez and Verlander right now because they have been pitching in the bigs and shwoing off their stuff, but don't think he's crap just because he hasn't had a chance to really show his stuff yet.
He had an impressive career at LB State, but his minor league results prior to this year were good rather than great. He's had a great season so far this year in AAA, but one of the red flags that some people have regarding his MLB potential is the extreme rate of fly balls he's surrendered. Very few pitchers can get away with extreme fly ball rates - a certain percentage of those fly balls will be HR's.

I'm not saying he may not turn out to be an outstanding pitcher, but there are some reasons that not every scout is convinced of that.

Of course, that's the thing with young pitchers - you just never know. Felix has everything going for him - fantastic stuff, great minor-league numbers, a tremendous debut last year, and he's still sporting an ERA of just under 5.00 so far this year. It's probable he'll turn that around, but you just never know - he could injure his arm tomorrow and never be the same.

[dawgfan]

I REALLY respect Mariner fans - They are rabid and faithful, but they think every player on their team is the next Ruth or Clemens.
Do you really think M's fans are any worse about this than fans of any other team?

[lynchjm24]

Exactly. Weaver would have been #1 far and away in the same draft with Verlander.



At the time that would have made perfect sense. Verlander was a guy who had control issues and a high ERA in a mediocre conference. We have more information now and it's clear that Verlander is a much better prospect then Weaver. With his huge flyball tendencies Weaver is going to have good success at times mixed with getting his brains beat in some seasons... sort of like.. his brother.

While I like Verlander, his rate stats haven't supported his ERA so far this year. He has a pretty damn good defense behind him and a park that still favors pitchers.

Hernandez hasn't had a great ERA, but he's going to be fine. I could make the argument that Liriano is at worst the second best pitcher in the league today.

Weaver<Verlander<Hernandez<Liriano

[Schmidty]

Do you really think M's fans are any worse about this than fans of any other team?

Having lived in Michigan and Florida for years: Yes.

Mariner fans are very passionate, but they treat their players as if they're their children and can do no wrong. That's a HUGE difference than most places.

LIke I said, I have been pleasantly suprised by the fans out here, but it's a whole different culture sports-wise. The fans are A LOT easier on the players here.

[dawgfan]

Having lived in Michigan and Florida for years: Yes.

Mariner fans are very passionate, but they treat their players as if they're their children and can do no wrong. That's a HUGE difference than most places.

LIke I said, I have been pleasantly suprised by the fans out here, but it's a whole different culture sports-wise. The fans are A LOT easier on the players here.
Hmmm. Maybe that's a result of the M's marketing campaign to make the players "warm & fuzzy". If you want to see M's fans not going easy on the local nine, check out the M's blogs USS Mariner and Lookout Landing - both very well written, both willing to call out sucky M's (Joel Pineiro, Willie Bloomquist, Carl Everett, Eddie Guardado - I'm talking to you...)

[DeToxRox]

At the time that would have made perfect sense. Verlander was a guy who had control issues and a high ERA in a mediocre conference. We have more information now and it's clear that Verlander is a much better prospect then Weaver. With his huge flyball tendencies Weaver is going to have good success at times mixed with getting his brains beat in some seasons... sort of like.. his brother.

While I like Verlander, his rate stats haven't supported his ERA so far this year. He has a pretty damn good defense behind him and a park that still favors pitchers.

Hernandez hasn't had a great ERA, but he's going to be fine. I could make the argument that Liriano is at worst the second best pitcher in the league today.

Weaver<Verlander<Hernandez<Liriano

As someone who's seen every Verlander start, he's definetly learning to pitch this season, as opposed to just throwing. His K rates are not anywhere near projection but when he needs the K he gets it. He is getting a lot of groundballs and he's not wasting pitches. His innings are over 100 but his pitches thrown are probably below every other starter (That has made every start for Detroit).

He'll only improve.

That said Liriano is sick, and Felix is up and down but pretty up right now. He'll be a good one for sure.

[lynchjm24]

As someone who's seen every Verlander start, he's definetly learning to pitch this season, as opposed to just throwing. His K rates are not anywhere near projection but when he needs the K he gets it. He is getting a lot of groundballs and he's not wasting pitches. His innings are over 100 but his pitches thrown are probably below every other starter (That has made every start for Detroit).

He'll only improve.

That said Liriano is sick, and Felix is up and down but pretty up right now. He'll be a good one for sure.

Certainly the only big gap is between Weaver and Verlander. Not from Verlander to Hernanadez to Liriano.

[Vince]

Sigh. A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser just makes me want to cry.

[dawgfan]

Sigh. A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser just makes me want to cry.
I'll see that bad trade and raise you - Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

[ISiddiqui]

I'll see that bad trade and raise you - Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

When all is said and done, the Giants-Twins deal may have that beat. Nathan already is a star.

[dawgfan]

When all is said and done, the Giants-Twins deal may have that beat. Nathan already is a star.
Could end up being that way, yes. But at the moment, I think the M's/Red Sox deal is a bigger steal.

[MrBug708]

I'll see that bad trade and raise you - Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

Pedro for Delino DeShields

No one for Piazza

[Chief Rum]

I know it's just one game, but...

7 IP, 5 HA, 1 BB, 9 K

He's 5-0 now (has won all five starts) with a 1.35 ERA.

Haven't seen anything yet that tells me he can't wear the "super prospect" label. ;)

[Terps]

Pedro for Delino DeShields

No one for Piazza

Pete Harnisch, Steve Finley, and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis. :mad:

[lynchjm24]

I know it's just one game, but...

7 IP, 5 HA, 1 BB, 9 K

He's 5-0 now (has won all five starts) with a 1.35 ERA.

Haven't seen anything yet that tells me he can't wear the "super prospect" label. ;)

You know like his stuff, or the fact that he's going to give up a ton of home runs....

[Chief Rum]

You know like his stuff, or the fact that he's going to give up a ton of home runs....

Pitchers who give up homeonruns do actually still do well, you know. It's harder, a definite weakness. But quite doable.

And anyways, when it starts to happen, I guess we can talk about it. Since it hasn't, all we have left are the current stirling results.

And, BTW, he wasn't exactly blown away in the PCL, where every field is like Coors Field. You would think a pitcher with long bomb tendencies would have flailed there, but he posted a 1.99 ERA (in the PCL!).

[lynchjm24]

And anyways, when it starts to happen, I guess we can talk about it. Since it hasn't, all we have left are the current stirling results.


I know you are a big Angels fan and are fired up. Who do you think will have a better career: Jered Weaver or Jeff Weaver?

It's a small sample size and nothing correlates to home run rate like fly ball %. If you get your hopes up on this guy you are just going to get disappointed.

[SackAttack]

I know you are a big Angels fan and are fired up. Who do you think will have a better career: Jered Weaver or Jeff Weaver?

I think Jeff Weaver needs to have a career before we can have this discussion. So far, Jered is actually playing like a pitcher worthy of being in the starting rotation. Weaver hasn't really done shit since the Yankees gave him that big contract.

[Chief Rum]

I know you are a big Angels fan and are fired up. Who do you think will have a better career: Jered Weaver or Jeff Weaver?

It's a small sample size and nothing correlates to home run rate like fly ball %. If you get your hopes up on this guy you are just going to get disappointed.

I am a big Angels fan, yes, but I think you're misunderstanding my main contention. Is Jered Weaver a super-prospect? I say yes, you say no.

Weaver has all sorts of hype, was a projected #1 overall, and has dominated at every level so far. I think that he's worthy of the label super-prospect. Will he be a superstar let's say ten years down the road? Certainly a question mark. He will have to prove he can make it, despite givng up a high fly-ball percentage.

And if you don't think he's better than his brother, honestly, you ought to actually do something new and not just read scouting reports, but actually watch the guy pitch. You only have to watch one game to know this kid has a whole different sort of makeup on the mound than his brother, who crumbles the instant anything goes poorly for him. He's one of the more poised kids I have seen come up in a while, and when he needs to make a pitch, so far, all I have seen him do is make it.

[Schmidty]

Everyone loves their own team's "golden boys". Threads like this are largely masturbatory.

[lynchjm24]

And if you don't think he's better than his brother, honestly, you ought to actually do something new and not just read scouting reports, but actually watch the guy pitch. You only have to watch one game to know this kid has a whole different sort of makeup on the mound than his brother, who crumbles the instant anything goes poorly for him. He's one of the more poised kids I have seen come up in a while, and when he needs to make a pitch, so far, all I have seen him do is make it.

He's better then his brother today. They are really more similar then you'd like to admit. Weaver the elder pieced together 1400 league average innings coming into this season, which is better then 95% of the pitchers who have appeared in the majors.

Again it's a few starts and don't go crazy until he's been around the league.

[lynchjm24]

and when he needs to make a pitch, so far, all I have seen him do is make it.

When I pointed out what a horrible signing Josh Towers extension was in the offseason this is what the other Blue Jays fans told me.

You can get by in the short term being an outlier - if you want to be a big time starter in baseball today you have to strike guys out and get ground balls. Not one, not neither.

The guys I work with refuse to believe that a 3.0 k/9 won't do Cheng Ming Wang in, I'll do the same with you that I do with them... save the thread.

[Chief Rum]

He's better then his brother today. They are really more similar then you'd like to admit. Weaver the elder pieced together 1400 league average innings coming into this season, which is better then 95% of the pitchers who have appeared in the majors.

Again it's a few starts and don't go crazy until he's been around the league.

I'm not. I'm just calling him a super prospect, not a bonafide major league star. Brien Taylor was a super prospect, too. So was Rick Ankiel. Plenty of super-hyped players don't end up doing squat. What I have been trying to say all along is that he belongs in the conversation when you're talking about the recent influx of terrific young pitching talent into the league.

I'm not making promises of Hall of Fame induction or even saying he will end up an above avergae pitcher.

As for his comparison to Weaver, don't presuppose to guess what I would "like to admit". He is very similar to his brother in many ways. They are both pitchers with less than 95mph fastballs, decent command of their pitches, and high flyball rates. They even both wear their hair the same.

What you may be forgetting is that when Jeff Weaver came up with the Tigers, no one questioned his talent. He was a very good, young starting pitcher. But he was very inconsistent, and tended to think himself out of games. This only got worse as he played in big cities like New York and LA. Jeff Weaver is a pitcher with terrific talent--and a messed up head on the mound.

Jered Weaver has the same talent, but he hasn't displayed the tendencies to implode when things go badly for him. That's where he is much better than his brother. If Jered can continue to show that poise, he will have the chance to maximize his ability that his brother never had, and become a much better, more consistent pitcher. Only time will tell if that ends up being the case, though. But he's off to a good start.

[st.cronin]

The first time I saw Jered Weaver pitch, I thought to myself "I thought they said JERED Weaver, not Jeff." They are uncannily similiar. I would be shocked if Jered Weaver turned out to be a star.

[Chief Rum]

You can get by in the short term being an outlier - if you want to be a big time starter in baseball today you have to strike guys out and get ground balls. Not one, not neither.

So pitchers who give up flyballs don't ever succeed? I'll admit I don't visit BP every day, but I find that hard to believe. As for K's, Weaver is doing very well in that category.

[Schmidty]

My prediction:

Weaver will average 13-14 wins with a 4.00 ERA over his career. Very solid (with a few very good seasons), but not elite. Then again, I'm just guessing based on what I've read and such, and the fact that I watched Jeff for years in Detroit.

[dawgfan]

Weaver has all sorts of hype, was a projected #1 overall, and has dominated at every level so far.
It's a minor quibble, but Jered didn't dominate AA last year in my opinion. He did have a very good K rate of 9.63/9 IP, but that was tempered by his 3.98 BB rate. He was good in AA, but not dominant.

That said, he did dominate in college, in A ball last year and AAA this year, and is dominating in the majors so far. He won't maintain this ridiculous level of success, but he could very well be a top-notch MLB starter for the next 10 years. On the other hand, he could fall back to earth some as the scouts get better reports on him and hitters start getting used to him and making adjustments.

I have no dispute with calling him a top-notch pitching prospect. I think Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez have higher chances of long-term success, but projecting pitchers is tougher than projecting hitters. There's a fair chance all three could flame out for various reasons - that's just the unpredictable nature of young pitchers.

[MrBug708]

My prediction:

Weaver will average 13-14 wins with a 4.00 ERA over his career. Very solid (with a few very good seasons), but not elite. Then again, I'm just guessing based on what I've read and such, and the fact that I watched Jeff for years in Detroit.

What does Jeff Weaver have to do with Jered Weaver? That's like comparing Mike and Greg Maddux together because they are brothers

[John Galt]

So pitchers who give up flyballs don't ever succeed? I'll admit I don't visit BP every day, but I find that hard to believe. As for K's, Weaver is doing very well in that category.

Some flyball pitchers are able to succeed. But because they have a tendency to give up the long ball (and have a higher BABIP), they need both a high K and low BB rate. Schilling is the proto-typical success story in this regard. Weaver doesn't look to have Schilling's power and may have a much worse GB/FB ratio, so his margin for error is even less.

I think the player Weaver could most be like is Chris Young of the Padres. Young is putting up a ridiculous .48 GB/FB ratio which is the lowest in the majors this year. Weaver has a .40 GB/FB ratio in limited sample size. Young has an 8.25 K/9 ratio which has helped him succeed. His K/BB ratio is 2.50. Now, Young is a bit of a breakout story and it isn't clear that he will be able to succeed over the long term with that GB/FB ratio (in the same way that many sinker ball pitchers struggle with consistency - Westbrook, Lowe, etc.). Young also is helped a lot by his home park. If Weaver were playing for the Pads or Nats, he would certainly be helped as well. With the Angels, it is a bit trickier for him.

Now if Weaver could keep his GB/FB ratio around .8, he would be in an area where there are a lot of successful pitchers (although they are almost always power pitchers), like Pedro, Schilling, Schmidt, and Peavy. But that is not where he is at right now and may require a substantial change in his pitching style.

Looking at PECOTA's comparable player list, you don't see a lot of "good" names for Weaver, but one interesting one that I forgot was John Patterson. He is a definite flyball pitcher who, like Young, is helped by his park. He was a former top prospect that battled through injuries and found success in the right setting.

I could easily see Weaver having great success if he turns in a very good K/BB ratio (or ends up in a good home park). But I could also see him fail miserably like Dennis Tankersly (who is #9 on the PECOTA list). It should be noted too that none of the players on the PECOTA list have a very high similarity score because Weaver is a unique pitcher. And maybe that counts in his favor as well.

I think it is fair to count him as a top pitching prospect, but his flyball ratio should raise some eyebrows and may ultimately be his undoing.

edit: And if you want another scary name for Weaver's future, it would be Scott Elarton. The man who once put up 121 K/43 BB in 124 IP with a 3.48 ERA, has never been able to repeat that success. And he has one of the lowest GB/FB ratios this season (his career is .76).

[John Galt]

dola,

I just checked the lowest GB/FB ratio pitchers over the last few years. Remember, these are only qualifed pitchers (often the really bad ones don't get enough IP). Here is the list:

2005:

Patterson .61
Elarton .67
Young .68
Milton .68
Claussen .77

2004:

Milton .58
Ishii .64
Oliver Perez .74
Cliff Lee .76
Ryan Franklin .78

2003

Washburn .68
Darrell May .71
Garrett Stephenson .73
Wayne Franklin .75
Ryan Franklin .76

If there is one thing in common among the names on that list, it is maddening inconsistency. Most of them have had one or two good seasons, but most of them have only had that one or two good seasons.

[lynchjm24]

What you may be forgetting is that when Jeff Weaver came up with the Tigers, no one questioned his talent.

You are right, the only thing we are really quibbling over is the term 'super' prospect. I put Weaver behind the big 3 in the American League, you think he should be included with them. It's not that I dislike Weaver, it's just that I see a guy like Liriano being in another class of talent.

I think Weaver the elder is probably more talented, and I think JG hit it right on the head when he talked about this type of pitcher being very inconsistent.

[lynchjm24]

If there is one thing in common among the names on that list, it is maddening inconsistency. Most of them have had one or two good seasons, but most of them have only had that one or two good seasons.

The only thing I would want to have in common with those guys is their tax bracket.

[Chief Rum]

It's a minor quibble, but Jered didn't dominate AA last year in my opinion. He did have a very good K rate of 9.63/9 IP, but that was tempered by his 3.98 BB rate. He was good in AA, but not dominant.

Agreed, he didn't dominate. What I would point out there is that he was coming back from taking a whole year off while the Angels and Boras argued over his contract. He didn't start pitching until June, had his spring training essentially in Single A, and by the time he was "up to speed", it was probably August, when everyone else had already well settled into their routines. I would pretty much toss out last year entirely (both good results and bad).

[Chief Rum]

Thanks for the discussion, John & Jim. You both make very valid points. It's interesting that Washburn pops up on that list, John, because he's one of the classic Angels I think of when it comes to the flyball pitcher.

What I think (and hope) will set Weaver apart is his very good command (strong ability at a young age to put any of his pitches where he wants them), his poise on the mound, and also a deceptive wind-up that I saw one local writer equate to Hideo Nomo's. I think that's overstating it a bit, but I do understand that has had its impact, too.

It's a small sample size (again), but in AAA, he was putting up 1.2 BB/9, 11.4 K/9 (9.5:1 K:BB ratio), and allowed 7 HRs in 83 IP in the thin air PCL. And in the majors so far, the numbers are 1.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9 (6:1 K:BB ratio), and allowed 2 HRs in 33.3 IP. Despite the lack of truly dominant stuff, those numbers seem to fit into the range of the high strikeout-to-walk ratio and good control you were noting as required. Of course, this is just five starts at the major league level (& 13 apps at Salt Lake), so take this all with a bit of skepticism.

I wouldn't argue too hard for Weaver to be put behind Hernandez, Liriano or Verlander. I see him as at least not having pitched himself out of being included with those prospects, but Liriano and Verlander have certainly put up the numbers in the bigs, and Hernandez (while he hasn't yet performed really) is acknowledged almost universally to be the best pitching prospect in, what, 20 years? No shame to be ranked just behind that group. :)

[lynchjm24]

and Hernandez (while he hasn't yet performed really) is acknowledged almost universally to be the best pitching prospect in, what, 20 years?

Well he did have 12 ridiculously good starts last year at the age of 19.

84 IP - 61 H - 23 BB - 77 K - 5 HR - 2.67 ERA where the league average was 4.32.

This year
103 IP - 113 H - 31 BB - 98 K - 15 HR - 4.95 ERA

Prospectus is translating his numbers to:
7.6 k/9 2.6 w/9 1.1 hr/9 The only real difference from last year is a 0.6 hr/9 increase from 0.5 to 1.1

To me the outlier in his numbers this year to date is the ERA. Looking at his game logs though he's been consistently mediocre when you look at it start by start.

Who knows, maybe he is what gets Seattle to the playoffs this year with a big second half.

Checking out Weaver's game logs:
Baltimore (8th ranked AL offense by EQA)
Cleveland (1st)
Tampa (12th)
Kansas City (13th)
Seattle (9th)

By the BP Quality of batter faced report he ranks 74th out of 134 in the AL using his 30 odd innings as the qualifier.

Such a small sample size I would infer nothing, just thought it was interesting.

If there is a division to be a rookie in it's the AL West: (EQA rank) Texas 7th, Seattle 9th, Anaheim 11th, Oakland 14th.

[DeToxRox]

As I said in the Cards win thread

Baseball Tonight announces the Angels deal Jeff Weaver to St. Louis for a Minor League Outfielder.

How'd they convince Jocketty to take this mess?

[Chief Rum]

As I said in the Cards win thread

Baseball Tonight announces the Angels deal Jeff Weaver to St. Louis for a Minor League Outfielder.

How'd they convince Jocketty to take this mess?

I'm certain we'repicking up the tab on Jeff's contract.

Plus, he's a solid inning-eater who is a better second half pitcher and better in the NL. You don't want him on the mound in too many pressure situations, but he's a decent enough guy to have in reserve for your rotation when you're paying him the league minimum, and give up an okay outfield prospect (I am assuming the prospect will be some midlevel player with not much upside).

[DeToxRox]

I'm certain we'repicking up the tab on Jeff's contract.

Plus, he's a solid inning-eater who is a better second half pitcher and better in the NL. You don't want him on the mound in too many pressure situations, but he's a decent enough guy to have in reserve for your rotation when you're paying him the league minimum, and give up an okay outfield prospect (I am assuming the prospect will be some midlevel player with not much upside).

If they get the Weaver on Detroit, they'll be fine. Unfortunatley something went off inside him and he's just nowhere near the bulldog mentality he had here.

[lynchjm24]

(I am assuming the prospect will be some midlevel player with not much upside).

Good assumption since St. Louis has no outfielders with upside in their system :).

St. Louis needs someone to take a turn every fifth day, that is Weaver's specialty.

[sterlingice]

When all is said and done, the Giants-Twins deal may have that beat. Nathan already is a star.

Just a bit OT, but isn't Joe Nathan yet another in the line of "grab a mediocre starter who has the right mental makeup and he makes a really good closer"?

SI

[Chief Rum]

Just another start, of course, but Weaver threw seven scoreless innings tonight to get his sixth win in six starts. His ERA is now 1.12.

It did come against the offensively inept A's, though.

[DeToxRox]

Just another start, of course, but Weaver threw seven scoreless innings tonight to get his sixth win in six starts. His ERA is now 1.12.

It did come against the offensively inept A's, though.

As it stands now, Zach Miner is about to win his 6th straight. The unhearled rookie of the Tigers staff could be 6-1 if we can hold Seattle scoreless for two more innings.

Thank you Kyle Farnsworth.

[dawgfan]

Jered wins his 8th decision today. Out of curiousity, I checked out his stats over at the Hardball Times website. Very interesting results...

We know certain things about Jered from traditional stats - he hasn't walked many people so far and has a good strikeout ratio - both very positive signs for future success. He's also an extreme flyball pitcher, with a ridiculously low 29.2% groundball ratio - not as good, as a certain percentage of flyballs tend to drift over the wall for homeruns, and you get a much lower number of groundball double-plays.

Now, flyball pitchers can survive if they don't put too many people on base, and Weaver's low walk and high strikeout rates help this, as does his high flyball percentage (less flyballs tend to drop for hits than groundballs).

But a big reason for Weaver's dominance so far is his homerun percentage off of fly balls. Research has shown that flyballs tend to go for homeruns about 11-12% of the time, and that pitchers really don't have much control over this figure. Weaver's figure so far this season (and these figures are adjusted for home parks) is an incredibly low 3.7%. In other words, he's given up about 1/3 of the number of homeruns that his flyball rate would normally yield. This is the primary reason that his xFIP number according to the Hardball Times is 4.77, a long ways away from his 2.20 ERA going in to today's game.

What this means is that while there are reasons to think he could continue to be a good pitcher, a lot of his success so far this year is due to good luck with fly balls staying in the yard. When this trend starts reverting towards the norm, expect to see some rougher outings for Weaver and his ERA to climb.

[Chief Rum]

Jered wins his 8th decision today. Out of curiousity, I checked out his stats over at the Hardball Times website. Very interesting results...

We know certain things about Jered from traditional stats - he hasn't walked many people so far and has a good strikeout ratio - both very positive signs for future success. He's also an extreme flyball pitcher, with a ridiculously low 29.2% groundball ratio - not as good, as a certain percentage of flyballs tend to drift over the wall for homeruns, and you get a much lower number of groundball double-plays.

Now, flyball pitchers can survive if they don't put too many people on base, and Weaver's low walk and high strikeout rates help this, as does his high flyball percentage (less flyballs tend to drop for hits than groundballs).

But a big reason for Weaver's dominance so far is his homerun percentage off of fly balls. Research has shown that flyballs tend to go for homeruns about 11-12% of the time, and that pitchers really don't have much control over this figure. Weaver's figure so far this season (and these figures are adjusted for home parks) is an incredibly low 3.7%. In other words, he's given up about 1/3 of the number of homeruns that his flyball rate would normally yield. This is the primary reason that his xFIP number according to the Hardball Times is 4.77, a long ways away from his 2.20 ERA going in to today's game.

What this means is that while there are reasons to think he could continue to be a good pitcher, a lot of his success so far this year is due to good luck with fly balls staying in the yard. When this trend starts reverting towards the norm, expect to see some rougher outings for Weaver and his ERA to climb.

Heh heh it kills you to give him any credit, doesn't it? ;)

[dawgfan]

Heh heh it kills you to give him any credit, doesn't it? ;)
Not at all. But when you crunch all the numbers and what they mean, as an Angels fan you should realize that he's been benefitting from some luck so far and is unlikely to continue to get results as good as he has been - when those fly balls start flying over the fence at a normal rate (or if he starts having some bad luck and they fly out at a higher than normal rate) his results are going to start looking a lot more like his brother's.

[sterlingice]

...his results are going to start looking a lot more like his brother's.

Hey now, let's not say hurtful things we can't take back ;)

SI

[lynchjm24]

Heh heh it kills you to give him any credit, doesn't it? ;)

I saw today's game. He was pretty good, but that fly ball rate is still a huge red flag to me.

[QuikSand]

Not at all. But when you crunch all the numbers and what they mean, as an Angels fan you should realize that he's been benefitting from some luck so far and is unlikely to continue to get results as good as he has been - when those fly balls start flying over the fence at a normal rate (or if he starts having some bad luck and they fly out at a higher than normal rate) his results are going to start looking a lot more like his brother's.

While I like Weaver, I agree with this -- and then some. Another factor often argued to be beyond the pitcher's control is "% of balls in play that go for hits" -- and a normal figure there is about 30%. (This is separable from HR balls - those aren't "in play" for this calculation) Weaver has enjoyed a rate of 25% this year -- not staggeringly lucky, but another case of things just breaking his way, for whatever reason.

Based on the components of his performance this year within his control, he probably would be expected to have an ERA around 3.3-3.5 or so. It's been mostly luck -- balls flying into gloves, fly balls dying at the warning track -- that has it so much lower than that.

Nice pitcher, sure. This good, not really.

[lighthousekeeper]

While I like Weaver, I agree with this -- and then some. Another factor often argued to be beyond the pitcher's control is "% of balls in play that go for hits" -- and a normal figure there is about 30%. (This is separable from HR balls - those aren't "in play" for this calculation) Weaver has enjoyed a rate of 25% this year -- not staggeringly lucky, but another case of things just breaking his way, for whatever reason.

Based on the components of his performance this year within his control, he probably would be expected to have an ERA around 3.3-3.5 or so. It's been mostly luck -- balls flying into gloves, fly balls dying at the warning track -- that has it so much lower than that.

Nice pitcher, sure. This good, not really.
Woah - so you're saying he's not going to go undefeated in his career?

[QuikSand]

Well, if you project this out...

[sterlingice]

Ok, so he's 8-0 across about 2.5 months of the season so let's just call him good for 10 wins every half season for 20 per season. So, he'll only get 14 this year. He's only 24, and will be 25 in October so that means he'll have a good 15, maybe 18 seasons left in him, depending on how he holds up. So that means he'll be somewhere between 314-0 and 374-0 in his career. Damn, he's good.

SI

[lighthousekeeper]

Ok, so he's 8-0 across about 2.5 months of the season so let's just call him good for 10 wins every half season for 20 per season. So, he'll only get 14 this year. He's only 24, and will be 25 in October so that means he'll have a good 15, maybe 18 seasons left in him, depending on how he holds up. So that means he'll be somewhere between 314-0 and 374-0 in his career. Damn, he's good.

SI
so despite going undeated, he still might not win as many as clemens? meh.

[SuperGrover]

I guess I'm just sick of the Mariners being shoved down my throat here when I'm a Tigers fan.

Evidently, considering you said you'd rather have a relief pitcher over one of the best pitching prospects in years. the guy is pitching just fine...and he's 20. If he doesn't get hurt he's going to be very good. As it is, he's better than league average...all he needs to do is cut down on his HRs.

Weaver has been very good, but he does give up a ton of flyballs. That is somehwat of a warning sign, but everything else screams success. However, he is not near Liriano's or Hernandez's talent level.

[Chief Rum]

While I like Weaver, I agree with this -- and then some. Another factor often argued to be beyond the pitcher's control is "% of balls in play that go for hits" -- and a normal figure there is about 30%. (This is separable from HR balls - those aren't "in play" for this calculation) Weaver has enjoyed a rate of 25% this year -- not staggeringly lucky, but another case of things just breaking his way, for whatever reason.

Based on the components of his performance this year within his control, he probably would be expected to have an ERA around 3.3-3.5 or so. It's been mostly luck -- balls flying into gloves, fly balls dying at the warning track -- that has it so much lower than that.

Nice pitcher, sure. This good, not really.

This I agree with. Projecting him out to end up with numbers like his brother is going over the top, IMO.

Everyone knows Weaver isn't going to end up with a 2.00 ERA every year. I don't think there is any pitcher who has seen significant action who has as good as a career 2.00 ERA, and if there is, it is probably some dead ball era pitcher or from the 19th century.

3.3 to 3.5 ERA is about what I was thinking he would end up at, some years a little higher in the 3s. Likely hardly ever below 3, maybe a year or two. He has the look of a very solid pitcher, and if he ends up with numbers like that, it would be a fit for an ace or good #2 for most teams in baseball, even if he might never actually break into any Top 10 pitchers in baseball lists.

The problem I have with the "luck" factors being thrown out is when does it stop being luck? He has 150 IP between majors and minors (and the minors were played in a homer-heavy PCL), and his numbers still haven't deviated for this. His numbers in college are also strikingly similar (in parallel, I mean, high strikeouts, low walks, hits, homeruns, etc.).

Has anyone considered there might be something to Weaver that makes him resistant to these luck factors? My theory is that he gets a lot of movement on his pitches, particularly late movement, and that combines with his deceptive delivery to cause problems for hitters trying to square up on his pitches. If it's hard to make good contact on the ball, it's hard to hit it with enough force to get it out of the park, and also to reach the holes in the defense before the fielders close the gaps. I have watched most of his starts, and I don't see too many hard hit balls off of him. I have also seen him make some pretty good contact hitters look very foolish simply trying to hit his fastball, which tops out at, what, 93-94?

[dawgfan]

This I agree with. Projecting him out to end up with numbers like his brother is going over the top, IMO.
Jeff was a pretty good pitcher for a while there (throwing out the Yankee years).

3.3 to 3.5 ERA is about what I was thinking he would end up at, some years a little higher in the 3s. Likely hardly ever below 3, maybe a year or two. He has the look of a very solid pitcher, and if he ends up with numbers like that, it would be a fit for an ace or good #2 for most teams in baseball, even if he might never actually break into any Top 10 pitchers in baseball lists.
That may happen, but his xFIP prior to today's start was at 4.77. Now, that number isn't a perfect analog to actual ERA numbers, but it's fairly close, and it does a much better job of predicting future ERA than current ERA since it is measuring the outcomes a pitcher has control over. The big disperity between his xFIP and his ERA is as I noted earlier - his remarkably small percentage of fly balls that have gone for home runs. Another factor is one that Quik pointed out - the percentage of balls put in play against him that have gone for hits is a fair amount lower than is normal. Some of this might simply reflect above-average fielding behind him, but over time these things tend to level out to the norm.

The problem I have with the "luck" factors being thrown out is when does it stop being luck? He has 150 IP between majors and minors (and the minors were played in a homer-heavy PCL), and his numbers still haven't deviated for this. His numbers in college are also strikingly similar (in parallel, I mean, high strikeouts, low walks, hits, homeruns, etc.).

Has anyone considered there might be something to Weaver that makes him resistant to these luck factors? My theory is that he gets a lot of movement on his pitches, particularly late movement, and that combines with his deceptive delivery to cause problems for hitters trying to square up on his pitches. If it's hard to make good contact on the ball, it's hard to hit it with enough force to get it out of the park, and also to reach the holes in the defense before the fielders close the gaps. I have watched most of his starts, and I don't see too many hard hit balls off of him. I have also seen him make some pretty good contact hitters look very foolish simply trying to hit his fastball, which tops out at, what, 93-94?
It stops being luck when there is a statistically significant amount of evidence to show that he is indeed an outlier and an exception to the rule. We're far, far short of that level of evidence.

What Weaver did in college is impressive, but it's not directly applicable to his Major League experience given the much wider disperity in talent at that level. As for his minor league numbers, two points:

- What he did last year wasn't as good as his stint in AAA this year - while he had great strikeout rates and very good walk rates, his ERA was 3.91 between High A and AA in 76 innings, partly because his HR rate appears to be more normal (8 HR allowed). I don't have detailed numbers from his time in the minors to see what his groundball/flyball ratio was or to figure out his HR pct. off of fly balls, but it appears his rate was much closer to normal. In his 77 IP this year in AAA, his ERA was fantastic at 2.10, but his HR rate again appeared to be more normal, with 7 HR allowed. Working in his favor was a phenomenal strikeout rate and very, very low walk rate;

- We're only talking about 153 IP total here in the minors - that hardly constitutes a significant enough body of work to eliminate the effects of random variation;

Now, as to whether he's truly unique in that he has some ability to limit HR allowed from fly balls, I would put big money in saying that he isn't. First off, as noted above, it doesn't look like he showed this trait in the minors - his HR rates appear much more normal. Secondly, I believe it's been established by sabermatricians that HR rate off of fly balls is not something that pitchers control - over time, rates always normalize around 11-12%.

Maybe Weaver has discovered some way previously undiscovered to keep fly balls from leaving the yard, but he's got a ton of statistical history working against him on this claim.

I'm not trying to bash Weaver by any means - he's got some definite plus traits working in his favor (high strikeout rate, low walk rate), he's fun to watch, and it's good for the game to see young pitchers come in and find success, especially considering how many crash and burn along the way.

I'm just pointing out that the number crunching seems to indicate that, if Weaver continues to pitch exactly as he has been, he's due to find his good fortune drifting away and seeing his ERA climb a fair amount. If he were to have 9 HR allowed in his first 65.1 IP (a normal figure given his very high fly ball rate) instead of his actual 3 HR allowed, his ERA would be quite a bit higher than it actually is.

My boy Felix probably was the beneficiary of some good fortune last season - given his performance this season, it's quite possible that his incredibly high groundball rate last year in his first season in the Majors is not a rate he will be able to maintain throughout his career. But in a lot of ways, he's had the opposite luck of Weaver. Prior to tonight, his percentage of HR allowed off of his fly balls was nearly 20%, quite a bit higher than the normal rate of 11-12% and monumentally higher than Weaver's 3.7% figure. This goes a long way towards explaining why his xFIP is 3.63 when his ERA was 4.29.

[Chief Rum]

But would he end up at around 3.5 ERA? Because that's about what we're all agreeing (so far) that he would likely end up at.

I look at those homerun numbers, and I know you have more fancy numbers than I do, but I see 7 minor league homeruns in 77 IP, and the simple math tells me about 20 HRs in 230 IP--and that's the area you said was more normal to what you expect to see. I think that's pretty acceptable personally, where pitchers who lead the league in homeruns are usually in the 30s or more aren't they?

That homerun rate is pretty close to what he did last year as well, although I'll say again that you should just completely throw out last year (good and bad), because he had taken a year off from pitching and was trying to get back into form in June. By the time he would be expected to round into form (July at the earliest), the season was almost over (and then he got promoted).

I won't rehash some of the reasons I think Weaver might be a bit better than the xFIP you have shown; they're in the posts above in this thread. I am just happy that, so far anyway, he is proving those numbers wrong and I hope he continues to do so.

[QuikSand]

The problem I have with the "luck" factors being thrown out is when does it stop being luck? He has 150 IP between majors and minors (and the minors were played in a homer-heavy PCL), and his numbers still haven't deviated for this. His numbers in college are also strikingly similar (in parallel, I mean, high strikeouts, low walks, hits, homeruns, etc.).

Has anyone considered there might be something to Weaver that makes him resistant to these luck factors? My theory is that he gets a lot of movement on his pitches, particularly late movement, and that combines with his deceptive delivery to cause problems for hitters trying to square up on his pitches. If it's hard to make good contact on the ball, it's hard to hit it with enough force to get it out of the park, and also to reach the holes in the defense before the fielders close the gaps. I have watched most of his starts, and I don't see too many hard hit balls off of him. I have also seen him make some pretty good contact hitters look very foolish simply trying to hit his fastball, which tops out at, what, 93-94?

Actually, in his last two minor league stints, he had very normal a hit % -- about 33% in AA in 2005, and about 31% in AAA this year, while posting solid ERA figures. Let's not get carried away and start suggesting that we've found the one guy who blows away the entire trend. Some things just appear to be largely out of the pitcher's hands... and there's an overwhelming body of evidence that the pitcher's job is basically to keep balls out of play and in the park. The share of pitchers who become even slight aberrations in this regard is very modest -- the number who merit an adjustment from 30% to 25% or something along those lines is inconsequential.

There's nothing at all alarming about a projection for next year that might suggest this is a 3.75 ERA pitcher, or even a bit higher. He seems to be wearing down this year already with 138 IP under his belt -- his strikeout rate has been plummeting, and we are seeing him struggle more and more (until last night's gem) -- that's not a terribly encouraging sign for a full-duty SP in the big leagues, either.

A guy worth protecting, but he's also not turning water into wine or anything before our eyes.

[Chief Rum]

Well, he apparently has some ongoing biceps tendinitis (he missed a couple starts in July to rest it), and he hasn't pitched as many innings as he has this year since college more than two years ago (and actually, I'm not even sure he pitched as much as this then). That and the normal learning curve for rookies (advance scouting reports on him) probably contribute quite a bit to the recent struggles.

The only game recently where he was really struggling the whole game was the Texas game a couple weeks ago. He went into Boston and only allowed three runs to that offense, before the pen blew the potential record-tying eighth straight win he would have had. He shutout the Indians last week until the sixth, when they finally got to him with a homerun and a some hard liners for four runs (Scoscia left him in at least one batter too long; I was screaming at the TV for the manager to make a move).

[dawgfan]

I look at those homerun numbers, and I know you have more fancy numbers than I do, but I see 7 minor league homeruns in 77 IP, and the simple math tells me about 20 HRs in 230 IP--and that's the area you said was more normal to what you expect to see. I think that's pretty acceptable personally, where pitchers who lead the league in homeruns are usually in the 30s or more aren't they?

That homerun rate is pretty close to what he did last year as well, although I'll say again that you should just completely throw out last year (good and bad), because he had taken a year off from pitching and was trying to get back into form in June. By the time he would be expected to round into form (July at the earliest), the season was almost over (and then he got promoted).
Here's the problem with the minor league numbers - unless there's a resource I'm unaware of, we simply don't have more advanced stats from his minor league time that would give us his groundball/flyball ratio, so it's difficult to tell if he also had a favorable home run from flyball ratio in the minors.

Given his current rate of fly balls allowed so far in the Majors, if he had a normal home run percentage off of fly balls he'd have given up about 10 HR instead of 4, and projected over 230 IP that would be 31 HR allowed.

Now, it could be that his extreme flyball rate will also normalize over time; if that's the case, even if his homerun percentage normalizes, it could be counteracted some by a reduction in the overall number of fly balls.

It's the extreme fly ball rate that has people like me and lynchjim et al concerned about his future prospects.

[dawgfan]

Thought I'd update this since Jered has had a few games under his belt this year.

His HR rate on fly balls normalized before the end of last year, but his ERA remained quite a bit better than his peripherals would suggest. This can be explained by his rate of hits yielded on balls in play and his left on base percentage.

In the former, he allowed a batting average of .246 on balls in play. As we know from DIPS theory, pitchers have very little control over this; the rate normalizes around .300, with variation due to the defensive skill of the fielders involved as well as random variation/luck, so Jered was benefiting from some fortune here.

Also, his LOB% was 86.2%. Again, this is a trait that research shows to be much more attributable to luck than to skill. Most pitchers LOB% falls between 70-80% in a given year.

Fast forward to this year: his "true outcome" stats (the ones he has the most control over - K rate, BB rate, ground ball rate) remain much the same, but his results have been much worse. Why? Is he not as good a pitcher this year? Not really - it's just that luck is working against him so far. After 3 starts, his batting average on balls in play was 33.3%, and is LOB% was startlingly low at 54.9%.

Just like his numbers last year were improved by good luck, so far this year his numbers are hurt by bad luck.

[Chief Rum]

Not denying your points or the stats you quote, but it's way too early. We're talking about a player who has just four starts so far, came off an injury and is essentially wrapping up his "spring training" right about now. I would wait until the All Star break or so before really giving his stats the once over. It would be much more statistically relevant then.

[dawgfan]

Sure, but there's still enough evidence to show that he's been unlucky so far and hasn't pitched as bad as his ERA would seem to indicate. What we really don't know yet is what to expect from his 'true outcome' stats - will his K rate remain as high as last year? Will his BB rate remain low? Will his fly ball rate remain extremely high? Those are the things in question.

[dawgfan]

Dola - THT has updated their stats from last night's games. Weaver's DER (the percentage of balls in play turned into outs) is at .639. Last year, he was at .764. The norm is roughly .700 (depending on the quality of the defense behind you), so thus far this year Jered has been as unfortunate in this category as he was fortunate last year. That 5.12 ERA is not indicative of the quality of his pitching so far this year...

[dawgfan]

Several years on, thought it would be interesting to update this thread.

Statistical analysis has continued to advance, and while much of the original DIPs theory holds true, we know more about outliers and the extent to which certain types of pitchers are able to "beat" their DIPs predicted outcomes. Chris Young is a poster-child for this, but Jered Weaver falls into this category. He's posted better than average BABIP numbers due to his extreme fly ball nature, but he's also shown an ability to limit the damage from those fly balls as the rate of fly balls going for home runs has stayed relatively low.

It's interesting to chart the path for both pitchers. Felix struggled a bit to harness his terrific stuff early in his career, but despite his loss of velocity (from mid 95mph range as a rookie to about 92 now) he's retained outstanding movement and refined his control and is clearly one of the top pitchers in the game.

Weaver has also been very successful, also while battling a loss in velocity (from 90mph to 86mph). His greatest success came in 2011-2012, years where he significantly out-performed his peripherals. He's slipped a touch since then, with small changes in his peripherals seeming to add up: a small drop in K rate, a small increase in walk rate, a small increase in the number of fly balls going for home runs, a small increase in balls in play dropping in for hits. You have to wonder though if his margin for error is razor-thin at this point - if his velocity drops into the 85 or 84mph range, can he still generate enough swings and misses and poor contact to remain a very good pitcher?

[Chief Rum]

Several years on, thought it would be interesting to update this thread.

Statistical analysis has continued to advance, and while much of the original DIPs theory holds true, we know more about outliers and the extent to which certain types of pitchers are able to "beat" their DIPs predicted outcomes. Chris Young is a poster-child for this, but Jered Weaver falls into this category. He's posted better than average BABIP numbers due to his extreme fly ball nature, but he's also shown an ability to limit the damage from those fly balls as the rate of fly balls going for home runs has stayed relatively low.

It's interesting to chart the path for both pitchers. Felix struggled a bit to harness his terrific stuff early in his career, but despite his loss of velocity (from mid 95mph range as a rookie to about 92 now) he's retained outstanding movement and refined his control and is clearly one of the top pitchers in the game.

Weaver has also been very successful, also while battling a loss in velocity (from 90mph to 86mph). His greatest success came in 2011-2012, years where he significantly out-performed his peripherals. He's slipped a touch since then, with small changes in his peripherals seeming to add up: a small drop in K rate, a small increase in walk rate, a small increase in the number of fly balls going for home runs, a small increase in balls in play dropping in for hits. You have to wonder though if his margin for error is razor-thin at this point - if his velocity drops into the 85 or 84mph range, can he still generate enough swings and misses and poor contact to remain a very good pitcher?

I think Weaver now makes up for some of his growing shortfalls as he gets older by simply pitching smarter, knowing where he can push things and where he no longer can. He used to get by on a deceptive delivery which helped him have "sneaky" speed, and he always had good command. I agree that his margin for error is very small now, so you will see less dominant performances and more clunkers, but by and large he will probably be your "quality start" guy for another year or two (as in, he usually gets you the very low bar of a quality start and gives you a chance to win if you have the offense to capitalize--as the Angels do). After that, though, I'm not sure how long he will be able to keep it going.

King Felix is just terrific. Much like Weaver, he is now a much smarter pitcher than he was before. Whereas Weaver always was a pretty solid command pitcher, King Felix went from young hurler to really developing that command. Combine that with greater physical attributes and stuff and just a terrific mentality on the mound, it is easy to see why he is pretty much the most dominant pitcher in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw. He is still fairly young, too, so I suspect he will keep this going for quite a while yet.

[QuikSand]

I was just terrified to see that I actually commented in this thread. I at least feel okay with what I said back then.