Poker: MTT Hand Discussion

[primelord]

You are playing in the 5 p.m. $540 buy in 2nd chance tournament at the WSOP. The field started with 138 people and we are down to the bubble at 19. 18th-15th place pays $690.

In these 2nd chance tournaments they play the bubble in a round for round format. There were 3 tables left two were 6 handed and one was 7 handed. Each table would play one complete orbit. If one person went out in that orbit then obviously the remaining 18 would all make the money. If two people went out in the orbit those two people would split 18th place. If 3 people went out then those 3 would split 18th and 17th place. If no one went out then all 3 tables would play another full orbit.

You are on the last hand of your table's orbit. You have 6,000 in chips and the blinds are 200/400 with 75 antes. One person has already been busted out of the tournament so we are down to the final 18. You are dealt Ah Ks on the button. It is folded to you and you raise to 1,000. The tournament chip leader is in the SB and he pushes all-in over the top of you. The BB folds. What is your play?

[SirFozzie]

We're in the money. The tournament chip leader is trying to muscle you out of the pot. You have to risk dying to live at this point. You have 16% of your chips in the pot. Your M was less then 6ntering (450 in antes 6 handed, 600 blinds, 1050 to play a round.)

If you don't push now.. when?

yes you are risking sharing the money.. but you have cashed.

MTT are so different from SnG, where the difference is so much bigger from the bottom of the money to the top.

Easy Call.

[SirFozzie]

I sent some more information to you via PM, Primelord.. see what you think.

[primelord]

FWIW I am not really looking for a right/wrong answer here. I am just curious how people would play this hand. Not that I think it makes any difference, but I was not the "Hero" in this hand. I was the BB that folded. :)

[kingfc22]

I would have pushed with it as well, especially since it was already known that from there on out everybody cashes.

[-apoc-]

I would never have raised to 1k to begin with. I would have open pushed the hand just so I dont have to worry about chopping 18th with the other guy. There is about 1050 in the pot already and I only have 6k i am more than happy to just take the blinds and if I get called so be it since I will very likely be ahead or racing.

[CleBrownsfan]

Easy call... if we were talking WSOP 10K buy in then maybe I would fold and cash.

[Radii]

A raise to 2.5x the big blind seems pretty small, but if that's been the standard raise for the table, then ok. Otherwise I'd open all in.

Knowing you're not going to completely bubble, you'll at least get some cash out of it, this seems like a great time to double up. The SB as the chip leader, facing a potential steal from the button, has to have a reasonably wide range of hands to re-raise with, certainly a few dominated aces along the way along with the usual coin flips and maybe a few 2:1 situations with two undercards if the chip leader has been very agressive.

Easy, easy all in if it were me at that point.


EDIT: positions, mixed some up.

[QuikSand]

By the way, I will add that watching this wrap-up with Malificent was the best poker sweat I've ever experienced. primelord was indeed short-stacked, and we arrived while the field was at about 21 players -- so with only three tables live, we could see the whole thing from our vantage point, and we could see the body count as they rapidly approached the money positions. The round-by-round drama was pretty high, and it played out right in front of us, which was admittedly very fun to watch. This hand was one of several that involved very, very emotive expressions by the decision-makers, as I recall.

Generally, I find watching poker in person pretty dreary... this was a real exception.

[Lathum]

I would call for sure. 18-15 gets the same money and you already invested 1K. Unless you are up against AA or KK which is doubfull considering the size of the raise you are a coinflip so you would be betting your last 5K to win a pot of over 7K.

[Subby]

By the way, I will add that watching this wrap-up with Malificent was the best poker sweat I've ever experienced. primelord was indeed short-stacked, and we arrived while the field was at about 21 players -- so with only three tables live, we could see the whole thing from our vantage point, and we could see the body count as they rapidly approached the money positions. The round-by-round drama was pretty high, and it played out right in front of us, which was admittedly very fun to watch. This hand was one of several that involved very, very emotive expressions by the decision-makers, as I recall.

Generally, I find watching poker in person pretty dreary... this was a real exception.Absolutely agree. Everytime he was involved in a flop I would run around to right behind the dealer so I could see the cards as they came out. I think Rick's competitor's were probably intimidated by the fact that he was the only one left with a posse.

[Fighter of Foo]

You are on the last hand of your table's orbit. You have 6,000 in chips and the blinds are 200/400 with 75 antes. One person has already been busted out of the tournament so we are down to the final 18. You are dealt Ah Ks on the button. It is folded to you and you raise to 1,000. The tournament chip leader is in the SB and he pushes all-in over the top of you. The BB folds. What is your play?

I would be much more inclined to fold is someone other than the chip leader made this play at me. Of course that would mean they would probably have significantly fewer chips so I'd be priced in to a call anyway.

So without knowing everyone's chip count, no way you fold here, and especially not against the chipleader.

[SirFozzie]

Here's what I sent to Primelord last night:


KK/AA: 10% tops. if he has one of those two monster hands, he would simply smooth call, and let you play at the pot after the flop, and try to take all your chips later in the hand. By going all in now, he risks you wriggling away and taking a profit on your work, and him losing out on the rest of your chips.

If he has it I'm dominated, Pair over Pair.

QQ or Lower Pair: More likely.. 30% I'd say. He's shutting down action to keep from having to decide post flop what to do with the hand, if he thinks the flop hit me (and obviously hit him). He's willing to accept a race, he can afford it to try to knock out a player.

If he has it, it's a race situation, 55-45, tops to him.

AK: Possible, but I have his cards, so less likely. Maybe 5%. It's a likely chop pot, so the only equity I have is chopping the blinds and not taking the -EV hit of losing the chips I already have invested.

Ace with Lower Kicker then mine: 45%. This is the most likely hand, to me.. he knows that I am getting desperate at this point, and he probably has the stack to try to knock players out.

If he has this, I'm dominating him.. he needs to draw out on me.

Bluff: He has any two cards, and feels that he's getting odds (60/40, two higher cards vs two lower cards).. with maybe some fold equity if I was trying to steal.

This may have been too tight, Primelord said there was a greater chance he was playing any two live cards (paint, connectors, suited) and is just gambling to knock another player out.

I think Primelord meant to put in the raise was to 1200, not to 1000, because this is the math he sent me:

450 (antes) + 400 (BB) + 1,200 (hero original raise) + 6,000 (villan SB & raise) = 8,050.

So you have 20% of your chips in the center already.

and it will cost 4800 more in a pot of 8,050. We're getting roughly.. 1.75? 1.8? to 1 on our money, meaning only if we're a 2-1 underdog in this hand is calling a -EV play

[primelord]

Actually I am almost positive the raise was to 1,000. I am pretty certain I got it right in my original post, but messed it up in my PM to you Fozzie.

It's interesting that everyone thinks that this is such an easy call. I am not saying anyone is wrong here, but I wonder if not actually being in the situation is making it an easier decision. Keep in mind it was right about 11:30 when Quik, Mali and Subby walked over. So we had been playing for 6 1/2 hours at that point. Now we are down to the very last hand before we are officially in the money. I know that even if she busts here she is going to make money, but since she will split the 18th place $690 she will only make $345 and will lose money overall on the tournament. If she folds she immediately makes $345 more no matter what happens.

Obviously $345 is not life changing money or anything, but when you have been sitting playing live for 6 1/2 hours and the only thing you have to do is fold your hand to show a profit (granted a modest one) is fold I think it really is a much tougher decision. At least for me $345, while not being a huge amount of money, is still worth my time.

I do think that our hero played this hand poorly. The SB (who was very good player) could indeed be making this move with a very wide range of hands. He had the short stack (me) on his left and had the bubble situation working for him. Hero would have to have a very strong hand to call him there. I guess she was hoping to see a flop, but really it seems like the only reason to raise to 1,000 is if you are giving youself the ability to fold if it is reraised. If you are going to call a push by the only guy who can knock you out then you are much better off just shoving and maximizing your fold equity.

Again I am not saying any of you who advocated that hero call here is wrong. Several people said that since she was garaunteed to get some money it was an easy call. Let's say someone hadn't already gone out and she would finish 19th if she busted and would get nothing. Does that change this to a fold for anyone?

[SirFozzie]

Not for me. There is such a money difference between first place and bubbling out, and your stack is not big enough to survive much else.

[QuikSand]

I think that the conventional math used for things such as pot odds tends to break down in bubble situations. This, to me, seems like such a case. Sure, the money has a basically linear value, but the psychological elements are not completely worthless... "making the money" here has value. primelord's reference to the six and a half hours is making the same argument here -- it's a pretty different thing making decisions based on reading a paragraph of background, it can be another thing entirely to make comparable decisions after hours and hours of live play and emotional investment.

It's certainly possible that the ideal play is indeed to take a stand here in hopes of gaining chips for a forward push, and being open to finishing with a loss for the event, or out of the money entirely. I also would find it quite defensible to fold and wait until the money bubble has safely passed... as you are at least guaranteeing yourself a *chance* at seeing something change for the better down the road. Nothing quite like doing all the calculations and deciding that you have been "priced in" to an essentially hopeless situation.

I don't think it's black and white, either. I'm just open to putting yourself into the best position to make good decisions, and then doing so when the time comes -- sometimes that means overriding the clinically "correct" option.

[sabotai]

The Honorable Donkey from New Jersey says that I would probably fold in both situations. If I've been playing for 6 1/2 hours and all I have to do is fold AKo to a reraiser to ensure that I will show a profit, then I'm doing it. If I were a pro player that played in a few hundred tourneys a year, then I see why I should rely on the math and odds. If I just made a trip down to Vegas for a week and played in a few Sats and 2nd Chances, and maybe one official event, and that was the extent of my "real poker life" aside from cheap online MTTs, then I'm just going to do what gets me some pay off.

[Fighter of Foo]

There are two hands I'm worse than 50/50 against and that's worse case. The more I think about this, the more I'm convinced there's roughly zero chance he/she has AAorKK. Fold for a guaranteed $300? No f'in way.

What's do the top 3 places pay out? I'm guessing something like 2/4/6k??? If I've been there for 6-7 hours there's no way I'm folding what's probably my best chance to win that. None.

[Subby]

Top prize was 22k.

[Radii]

I definitely agree that some of the straight math decisions go out the window in the situations. If this was the main event and it was the difference between $0 or $10,500, I fold. If it was the differnce in $6,000 and $10,500(or whatever a similar split might bring) I probably fold, a gaurenteed $4000 is nice.

But I can't possibly see folding this in a million years if all it guarentees me is $300 + a chance to bubble up another level or two, when a fold leaves me with an M of under 5, preparing to push a very very wide range of hands any time you are opening... just too many what if's if I fold here in my mind.

[kcchief19]

But I can't possibly see folding this in a million years if all it guarentees me is $300 + a chance to bubble up another level or two, when a fold leaves me with an M of under 5, preparing to push a very very wide range of hands any time you are opening... just too many what if's if I fold here in my mind.
That's how I feel too. I definitely understand why it's different in the seat -- even when I'm in an online tournament in a bubble situation, I make different decision that simply following what the math says I should do. Of course I say that, but I'm using math to defend my logic -- that I'm unlikely to get that strong of a hand again the rest of the tournament if I waiting to get my money with the best chance to double up.

[Mustang]

If the 6 1/2 hours of invested time mattered that much to you and if you knew someone was knocked out by the time I bet, I wouldn't have even bet $1000.. I would have just folded. If being in 18th place by yourself matters that much, you control that at that point.

I can't see not calling at this point.

[primelord]

Again I am not saying to swings the decision to a fold. I think it is worth noting here though that the math involved here is not as simple as whether you are getting the correct pot odds to make a call. It's fairly complicated (tedious may be the better word) to do the ICM calculation with 18 people left, but we can simplify the problem to illustrate the point I think.

Let's say for example we could quantify that if hero calls and doubles up here the 12k in chips she now has would mean she has a 20% chance of finishing above 15th place. So that means 80% of the time she finishes with $690. So let's say the SB has 66 and she is a slight dog to win the hand. So 52% of the time when she calls that all-in she is going to finish with $345. In the other 48% of the time that she wins the hand she is going to finish with $690 the overwhelming majority of the time.

On the flip side if she folds her she gets the $690 100% of the time and only having 5k in chips really probably only increases the chance that she finishes 15 or below by 10%. If this were the case, from a strictly EV standpoint, it would be correct to fold the AK even though the pot odds were sufficent for a call.

Now I was just throwing numbers out there to make the point. I haven't done any of the actual calculations to determine how clse those are to accurate, but the point is that if you are using math to justify the call then there is more that needs to be taken into account than just your current pot odds.

[-apoc-]

I would tend to believe that while this is a +ChipEV call it is likely a -$EV call. Which is why I said earlier the button should never have gotten themselves into this situation. Just open push the AK there because it take away the big stacks bubble fold equity. He isnt going to call with alot of hands but he can certianly reraise a 1k bet with alot of them.