Help pick my NFL +/- in wins bet

[Lathum]

I did this last year but I can't find the old thread for some reason. Basicly what I want to do is a 4 way bet using 4 NFL teams total wins for the season. I am going to list the lines and all I need is for you to pick the 4 you think will be stone cold locks. I'll take the four most popular and use them in my bet.

I am leaving the Giants off because I won't bet my team.

Here are the lines

Arizona 8
Atlanta 8
Baltimore 8
Buffalo 6.5
Carolina 10
Chicago 9.5
Cinci 9
Cleveland 6.5
Dallas 9.5
Denver 10
Detroit 6.5
Green Bay 6
Houston 5.5
Indy 11.5
Jacksonville 9
KC 9.5
Miami 9
Minnesota 8
New England 10.5
New Orleans 7
NYJ 7
Oakland 6.5
San Diego 8.5
Pitt 10.5
SF 5
Philly 8.5
Seattle 10.5
St Louis 7
Tampa Bay 8
Tennessee 5.5
Washington 9

[Lathum]

so for example my picks

Seattle +10.5
Dallas -9.5
NYJ -7
New Orleans +7

[st.cronin]

Indy -11.5
Washington -9
NY Jets +7
Cleveland +6.5

[QuikSand]

Chicago -9.5
Cincinnati +9
Detroit +6.5
KC -9.5

[TroyF]

Chi - -9
NYJ - -7
SD - +8.5
TB - +8 (Chris Simms is going to kill me after I make this prediction, I'm sure of that fact, but TB is better than an 8-8 team IMHO)

[Jas_lov]

Indy +11.5
Green Bay +6
Cinci +9
NYJ -7

[Lathum]

I'm assuming that's 10.5 like in your bet, right?
fixed, thanks for pointing that out

[Rich1033]

Chicago -9.5
Seattle +10.5
SD +8.5
Balt +8

[tanglewood]

Green Bay +6
Seattle -10.5
KC -9.5
San Diego +8.5

[kingnebwsu]

Chicago +9.5
Indy +11.5
NYJ -7
Tennessee +5.5

Good luck.

[rkmsuf]

If the Jets win 8 games I'll let Shorty teabag me.

[cthomer5000]

Everyone seems to love SD +8.5.... I'd almost be willing to bet against them based on first-year starting QB alone.

[TroyF]

Everyone seems to love SD +8.5.... I'd almost be willing to bet against them based on first-year starting QB alone.


Pro Football Prospectus has an interesting article on that. They show that most first year QB's, at least highly rated ones, will play to the level of their team the first year. They believe the Chargers will be a 10 or 11 win team. I tend to agree. Their talent is sensational. Barring an injury to LT, I think they'll be a damned good team. With the easy schedule, I have to believe they'll get to 9-7.

[TLK]

Oakland + 6.5
Detroit -6.5
Chicago -9.5
Washington -9

[Ryche]

New York Jets -7
New Orleans -7
Washington -9
Jacksonville +9

[Butter]

Cleveland -6.5
New Orleans -7
San Diego +8.5
Minnesota -8