Ping: Blackjack Players

[st.cronin]

Can somebody explain the math behind standing on a hard 12? I know the basic strategy says if dealer shows a 4, 5, or 6 you stand on a hard 12, but I can't figure out why.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I don't know for sure, but I'm going to guess that if the dealer has a face card down, all the cards that would help you would hurt the dealer.

[st.cronin]

I don't know for sure, but I'm going to guess that if the dealer has a face card down, all the cards that would help you would hurt the dealer.

I don't think it has to do with that, I think it has to do with the odds that the dealer will bust with a 4/5/6 showing. That's what I don't know how to figure, but it must be quite high if I'm supposed to sit on a 12.

[QuikSand]

I don't think it has to do with that, I think it has to do with the odds that the dealer will bust with a 4/5/6 showing. That's what I don't know how to figure, but it must be quite high if I'm supposed to sit on a 12.

Without carrying out all the math - this is essentially right. When the dealer is in such a weak position (holding a 4-5-6) he's got a great shot to bust anyway, so don't take any needless risks.

[Vegas Vic]

For non-counters, standing on a hard 12 vs. the dealer's 4/5/6 is +EV. If you're counting, there are situations in a negative deck where it is correct to hit, depending on how negative the count is and what system you're using.

[Daimyo]

The percentages below are not exact, because I simplified things a quite a bit (basically assuming an infinite number of decks), but they're close enough for this I think. Also this is only if a 4 is showing, the 5 and 6 are left as an excercise for the reader. :)

A dealer with a 4 showing will end up with the following results:
17 12.1%
18 13.4%
19 11.8%
20 9.5%
21 11.2%
Bust 42.0%

Basically if you stand on 12 you'll win the 42% of the time the dealer busts and lose the other 58% of the time.

If you hit you really have seven things that can happen with your hand: <16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, or Bust. The chart below shows for each hand (1st column), how likely you are to get that hand (2nd column), how likely the hand is to win if you get it (3rd) and overall how likely you are to win with that hand (4th). If you sum up the 4th column you'll see that you only have a 38.4% chance to win if you hit on a 12 with a 4 showing (and a 4.5% chance to push).

Bust 30.8% 0.0% 0.0%
<16 30.8% 42.0% 12.9%
17 7.7% 42.0% 3.2%
18 7.7% 54.1% 4.2%
19 7.7% 67.5% 5.2%
20 7.7% 79.3% 6.1%
21 7.7% 88.8% 6.8%

[st.cronin]

Did you crunch those #s yourself Daimyo?

[Daimyo]

Yeah. When I was learning the Blackjack chart I wanted to calculate the numbers for each play on my own to make sure I understood the reasoning for each play. I simplified things a bit to make it easy to do in Excel though, so its not exactly accurate.

[st.cronin]

Good stuff. What does your math say about doubling down on A-9, A-8, or A-7 when dealer shows a 4-5-6?

[QuikSand]

Are you looking to disprove the standard blackjack strategy chart here? Or just to better understand why it says what it says?

[st.cronin]

Are you looking to disprove the standard blackjack strategy chart here? Or just to better understand why it says what it says?

I am trying to understand the math involved.

[TroyF]

Good stuff. What does your math say about doubling down on A-9, A-8, or A-7 when dealer shows a 4-5-6?


You have the math in terms of the win rate by just folding your hard 12. With A 7/8/9 you now get to wipe out your bust rate. So take out the 30% from his chart.

You aren't winning with that entire 30%, but distributing it over the rest of the possibilities should show you that you are a huge favorite in that situation.

[st.cronin]

Here is my thinking on A-9, dealer holding a 6: My expected win percentage if I stay is probably in the high 90s. For doubling to be a bad play, my win percentage has to go below 50, which I just don't see how that's possible. I know the chart says not to double that hand, but I don't see why.

[Subby]

You should try to get into the World Series of Blackjack (http://www.gsn.com/specific_page_elements.php?link_id=S10)!

[jbmagic]

Here a good strategy for Blackjack.

1)Start with table minimum limit. If you lose a hand double what you put in last time. Continue to double what you put in last time.

For example you put in $5.00 and lose. Then next hand put down $10.00. If you lose you will put $20 next hand. etc

When you win a hand go back down and put down the minimum for that table again. And follow step #1 again.

[Subby]

Here a good strategy for Blackjack.

1)Start with table minimum limit. If you lose a hand double what you put in last time. Continue to double what you put in last time.

For example you put in $5.00 and lose. Then next hand put down $10.00. If you lose you will put $20 next hand. etc

When you win a hand go back down and put down the minimum for that table again. And follow step #1 again.And what happens when the the table maximum bet is $300 but you just lost your $250 bet?

Not that this isn't an awesome strategy.

[rkmsuf]

Sounds like my hairbrain roulette angle. Bet red/black and keepting doubling until you win. You can't lose.








Except for that darn green hole.

[QuikSand]

Awesome Strategy = How The Casinos Can Build Those Magnificent Edifices and Still Afford To Serve Free Booze

[jbmagic]

And what happens when the the table maximum bet is $300 but you just lost your $250 bet?

Not that this isn't an awesome strategy.

If the table minimum is $5.00, hopefully you will win a hand before you reach the maximum on the table.


My strategy your going to end up winning and making a profit every time before you leave the table.
Try it out.

[jbmagic]

Sounds like my hairbrain roulette angle. Bet red/black and keepting doubling until you win. You can't lose.
Except for that darn green hole.



Yep that strategy works great on roulette too.

[rkmsuf]

If the table minimum is $5.00, hopefully you will win a hand before you reach the maximum on the table.


My strategy your going to end up winning and making a profit every time before you leave the table.
Try it out.

Somehow civilization has just stumbled upon this angle.

[st.cronin]

Awesome Strategy = How The Casinos Can Build Those Magnificent Edifices and Still Afford To Serve Free Booze

All of my gambling strategies are, in fact, based strictly on getting as much free booze as possible while staying in my loss budget.

[QuikSand]

Try it out.

No, thanks.

[rkmsuf]

Yep that strategy works great on roulette too.

I figured you'd like it.

[Subby]

If the table minimum is $5.00, hopefully you will win a hand before you reach the maximum on the table.

My strategy your going to end up winning and making a profit every time before you leave the table.
Try it out.HOPEFULLY!

You have obviously never lost 6 straight hands of $5 Blackjack before.

[QuikSand]

If the table minimum is $5.00, hopefully you will win a hand before you reach the maximum on the table.


My strategy your going to end up winning and making a profit every time before you leave the table.
Try it out.

Do you understand the difference between these two phrases? I'm thinking that you don't.

[CraigSca]

Doubling your bet is a fallacy. Eventually, the house wins because of the better odds. The problem is, it's quite easy to get into a 6 or 7 hand losing streak. If we start at $5, you're quickly up to betting $320 or $640 to break even. I hope you brought at least $1K with you, and are you willing to bet $1280 if you lose that 7th hand?

Are you willing to double-down, split those 8's, etc?

[jbmagic]

HOPEFULLY!

You have obviously never lost 6 straight hands of $5 Blackjack before.


That still only $160.

$5 tables usually have high table limits. Looks for ones that do.

[CraigSca]

Until the casinos relent and give favorable odds to the players, there are NO strategies that will guarantee that the player wins (unless you cheat, but then there's Federal prison, so I'm not sure the player "wins" in that case).

[Subby]

That still only $160.

$5 tables usually have high table limits. Looks for ones that do.
Will do!

[CraigSca]

If you win every time, why aren't you living in Las Vegas? Why work when you can just hit the casino up for cash when needed?

[rkmsuf]

Will do!

Also, don't forget that if you see a table that has hit on at least 5 blacks in a row in roulettte that there is a very good chance the next spin is red.

Good luck and happy gambling!

[jbmagic]

If you win every time, why aren't you living in Las Vegas? Why work when you can just hit the casino up for cash when needed?

I should of said most of the time you will come out ahead when you leave the table.


Just try it. You will be surprise how well you do if you follow the strategy.

[st.cronin]

I have actually been considering using jb's strategy on the Powerball.

[QuikSand]

Okay, while it's admittedly more fun just to keep poking sticks at jb... here's a link that does a very nice job debunking the (very, very old and still just as flawed) Martingale betting system that he's advocating here:

hxxp://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/bettingsystems-martingale.html

In short, while it seems like a pretty small chance that you will run out of bets to make to get back to that small win -- the chance of getting there and actually losing a lot outweighs the actual benefit of the tiny wins that you do achieve with this betting system.

You basically end up with a long series of results that look something like this:

+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
-1280
(oh, fuck)

[jbmagic]

Also, don't forget that if you see a table that has hit on at least 5 blacks in a row in roulettte that there is a very good chance the next spin is red.

Good luck and happy gambling!


Best to stick with one color when doing that double strategy in Roulette. This way your not jumping around picking a color.

[QuikSand]

Best to stick with one color when doing that double strategy in Roulette. This way your not jumping around picking a color.

Please stop.

[Subby]

Best to stick with one color when doing that double strategy in Roulette. This way your not jumping around picking a color.TOTALLY AGREE!

[jbmagic]

Okay, while it's admittedly more fun just to keep poking sticks at jb... here's a link that does a very nice job debunking the (very, very old and still just as flawed) Martingale betting system that he's advocating here:

hxxp://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/bettingsystems-martingale.html

In short, while it seems like a pretty small chance that you will run out of bets to make to get back to that small win -- the chance of getting there and actually losing a lot outweighs the actual benefit of the tiny wins that you do achieve with this betting system.

You basically end up with a long series of results that look something like this:

+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
-1280
(oh, fuck)

You better sticking to something else. if you lose that many hands in a row. Blackjack might not be your game.

[CraigSca]

Omg. Joe Fallacy.

[QuikSand]

You better sticking to something else. if you lose that many hands in a row. Blackjack might not be your game.

I assure you it is not my game. But at least I'm aware of that fact.

[Subby]

You better sticking to something else. if you lose that many hands in a row. Blackjack might not be your game.HAHAHAA. QUICKSTAND JUST GOT SERVED, YO!

[jbmagic]

Please don't dish the strategy, until you at least try it.

Try it for fun with free money to see how well it works.

[CraigSca]

Always check your horoscope for your lucky numbers before heading to the casino.

[QuikSand]

I'm now sorry for my continued contributions to the thread at this point. Either I am up against:

- a guy who revels in his complete cluelessness, making any honest efforts totally pointless (in that case, best of luck to you jb)

or

-an alias address who enjoys tweaking this forum (and others) and has dedicated an absolutely enormous amount of time to doing so (in that case, well done, yuk yuk, fuck you)

[CraigSca]

Math > "Strategy"

[Subby]

You guys are such nits :D

[jbmagic]

I'm now sorry for my continued contributions to the thread at this point. Either I am up against:

- a guy who revels in his complete cluelessness, making any honest efforts totally pointless (in that case, best of luck to you jb)

or

-an alias address who enjoys tweaking this forum (and others) and has dedicated an absolutely enormous amount of time to doing so (in that case, well done, yuk yuk, fuck you)


I was just honestly sharing my strategies to others. No one can knock it until they try it.

[Daimyo]

You better sticking to something else. if you lose that many hands in a row. Blackjack might not be your game.
Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[CraigSca]

I'm still not giving up.

The problem is, Jb, you can "try" it mathematically. Mathematicaly, the strategy goes down in flames.

[st.cronin]

Actually, the strategy "works" if you have an infinite amount of money. But if you have an infinite amount of money, you don't need a strategy at all.

[Desnudo]

Please don't dish the strategy, until you at least try it.

Try it for fun with free money to see how well it works.

My friend came up with that fantastic idea on his own in high school. He still has a day job that doesn't involve math or living in Las Vegas by a pool.

[jbmagic]

Your going to win some hands. Dealers are not going to win 100% of the time.

[rkmsuf]

Actually, the strategy "works" if you have an infinite amount of money. But if you have an infinite amount of money, you don't need a strategy at all.

whoa

[TroyF]

I was just honestly sharing my strategies to others. No one can knock it until they try it.


Tell ya what JB. I'm going to Vegas in a couple of months and I'm more than willing to try out your strategy.

Thing is, I don't want to do it with my money. I know all the proper plays in blackjack (that MIT card is wonderful) I'll give you everything I win. I'll just take the free liquor.

Just let me know how much you are willing to send me and I'll be more than happy to test the sucker out.

[cthomer5000]

Try it out. I just lost $3,000. Thanks a lot, jb.

[rkmsuf]

I just lost $3,000. Thanks a lot, jb.

meh, just double your bet now. it's so simple.

[Malificent]

I don't have to try jumping from a plane without a parachute to know that it is a stupid idea.

[cthomer5000]

meh, just double your bet now. it's so simple. Good point! I just need to make a quick stop at the pawn shop.

[rkmsuf]

Good point! I just need to make a quick stop at the pawn shop.


sell your body to the night

[jbmagic]

I just lost $3,000. Thanks a lot, jb.

You must suck to lose that many hands in a row. Just kidding :)

So you lost 9 to 10 hands in a row. wow

[jbmagic]

Sometimes it just good to walk away from table if you having that bad of luck.

You got to know when to quit and try something else.

[rkmsuf]

Sometimes it just good to walk away from table if you having that bad of luck.

You got to know when to quit and try something else.

For some reason this post highlighted this thread for me and made me lol.

[digamma]

Sometimes it just good to walk away from table if you having that bad of luck.

You got to know when to quit and try something else.

But if you walk away, you won't make money.

Double down, now!

[Desnudo]

I enjoy this thread. Kenny Rogers wants to see you in the alley jb.

[rkmsuf]

That Kenny Rogers makes a damn good bird.

[Desnudo]

I like chicken

[jbmagic]

I forgot to add. If its a push don't double. Bet the same previous bet.

[rkmsuf]

You basically end up with a long series of results that look something like this:

+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
-1280
(oh, fuck)

This exhibit is hilarious. Good work.

[TroyF]

For some reason this post highlighted this thread for me and made me lol.


It was an instant LOL moment for me as well.

His response is right though. If you are stupid enough to use that strategy, your best bet is to walk away from the table for awhile. Then read a few books and practice with some computer simulations before you go back.

[TroyF]

I forgot to add. If its a push don't double. Bet the same previous bet.


So if I push, my odds aren't as good that I'll win the next hand? I mean, I've lost four hands in a row and then pushed, shouldn't I be due for a win?

[jbmagic]

So if I push, my odds aren't as good that I'll win the next hand? I mean, I've lost four hands in a row and then pushed, shouldn't I be due for a win?


odds ok still.

You didn't lose or win on that hand. So just bet the same again that you previous did.

Like I said the dealer is no way going to win 100% of their hands. and their is know way you going to lose 100% of your hands.

If your people are losing 100% of your hands, then they need to study more on blackjack and learn how to play it.

[primelord]

Ah yes I have fond memories of the Martingale betting system. Two days before I turned 21 a buddy of mine was telling me that he had a buddy who constantly made money at black jack with this system (maybe his buddy was jb). He said just bring $120 to the $5 tables and double your bets every time you lose. It was a can't miss opportunity. You NEVER lose 5 hands of black jack in a row.

Now I had never played black jack before. This sounded like a fantastic idea. So on my 21st birthday we head out to the local casino. My $120 (which was a decent amount of money to me at the time) in tow. I sit down at the table with my reference card and my $120. My first 5 hands later I am walking away from the table with no money. 10 minutes into my first ever casino trip and I was broke. In addition to having since learned the math and resoning behind why the strategy does not work, I have also put the method into real world practice. To sum up, it blows.

[jbmagic]

I would not advise this strategy to anybody that is new to blackjack.

Learn the game well first.

[cthomer5000]

Ok. I'm back guys. Took longer than I expected because I had to sell my car as well. Now I'm down $12,000. JB, What I do next?

[cthomer5000]

I would not advise this strategy to anybody that is new to blackjack.

Learn the game well first. WTF?! Now you tell me this!

[rkmsuf]

WTF?! Now you tell me this!

You should have walked away down 6,000. The luck obviously wasn't with you today.

[Subby]

Ah yes I have fond memories of the Martingale betting system. Two days before I turned 21 a buddy of mine was telling me that he had a buddy who constantly made money at black jack with this system (maybe his buddy was jb). He said just bring $120 to the $5 tables and double your bets every time you lose. It was a can't miss opportunity. You NEVER lose 5 hands of black jack in a row.

Now I had never played black jack before. This sounded like a fantastic idea. So on my 21st birthday we head out to the local casino. My $120 (which was a decent amount of money to me at the time) in tow. I sit down at the table with my reference card and my $120. My first 5 hands later I am walking away from the table with no money. 10 minutes into my first ever casino trip and I was broke. In addition to having since learned the math and resoning behind why the strategy does not work, I have also put the method into real world practice. To sum up, it blows. No offense dude, but this strategy is for experienced blackjack players only.

edit: nevermind, I see the master beat me to the punch...

[Desnudo]

odds ok still.

You didn't lose or win on that hand. So just bet the same again that you previous did.

Like I said the dealer is no way going to win 100% of their hands. and their is know way you going to lose 100% of your hands.

If your people are losing 100% of your hands, then they need to study more on blackjack and learn how to play it.

You are right, the dealer will lose ~45% of the time if you play right. Of course that means you lose ~55% of the time...

[Desnudo]

Ok. I'm back guys. Took longer than I expected because I had to sell my car as well. Now I'm down $12,000. JB, What I do next?

Home equity loan. Tell them you are buying a car. Your wife will never know and won't care once you buy her that fine mink coat with your huge winnings!

[QuikSand]

This thread is becoming a free-for-all now.

What would really be great would be if we could all get together, connect all our computers to a lot of other ones, and be able to do research and actually find out about this sort of thing. You know, some kind of inter-network system that people like us could use to actually learn what is actually correct, rather than just spouting off on what we think might be correct. That would be so cool... then stuff like this wouldn't even have to happen.

[Lathum]

this thread is pure gold.

[Passacaglia]

Haven't you guys seen the movie "In America"? It worked fine there!

Anyway, just this Friday night, some people were telling me that you should employ a strategy similar to this, but not as extreme -- simply that you should raise your bet after losing, and lower it after winning. They said it was based on "regression to the mean" which sounded to me like a fancy way of trying to assert that the events weren't independent.

[cthomer5000]

Home equity loan. Tell them you are buying a car. Your wife will never know and won't care once you buy her that fine mink coat with your huge winnings! I don't own a house, but I know this guy who knows this guy who loans money sometimes. I'll take out a little extra because i'm clearly due, that way i win even more than $5 in the end. Plus I need to recoup enough to get my stuff out of pawn now. If I lose ...well...the luck wasn't with me today. Wish me luck!

[Desnudo]

This thread is becoming a free-for-all now.

What would really be great would be if we could all get together, connect all our computers to a lot of other ones, and be able to do research and actually find out about this sort of thing. You know, some kind of inter-network system that people like us could use to actually learn what is actually correct, rather than just spouting off on what we think might be correct. That would be so cool... then stuff like this wouldn't even have to happen.

Tongue-in-cheek I'm sure, but amazingly the casinos have figured out how combat such a fantastic system.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28roulette_system%29

"Unfortunately, none of these practitioners in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would quickly bankrupt those foolish enough to use the martingale after even a moderately long run of bad luck."

Modern casinos generally have table minimums and maximums to prevent players from doubling their bets more than five or six times, rendering the martingale system obsolete.

[Desnudo]

I don't own a house, but I know this guy who knows this guy who loans money sometimes. I'll take out a little extra because i'm clearly due, that way i win even more than $5 in the end. Plus I need to recoup enough to get my stuff out of pawn now. If I lose ...well...the luck wasn't with me today. Wish me luck!

This system is fool proof. Take out as much he'll lend so you can make more money faster.

[Pumpy Tudors]

So you lost 9 to 10 hands in a row. wow
And nearly $3,000. What's the correct move now?

[QuikSand]

Okay, I'm officially a convert. I love this thread now.

[rkmsuf]

And nearly $3,000. What's the correct move now?

leave and learn to play the game

[Pumpy Tudors]

Best to stick with one color when doing that double strategy in Roulette. This way your not jumping around picking a color.
This will stay with me forever.

Forever.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'm waiting to hear some slots strategy. How do you find the "hot" machines?

[rkmsuf]

I'm waiting to hear some slots strategy. How do you find the "hot" machines?

Duh, it's the one where someone just got up and walked away from.

Or with adequate charting you can pick the ones that haven't hit in the longest. They are due!

[KWhit]

This is the best strategy since Cocky and Funny.

[st.cronin]

I had no idea this would happen, honest.

[Ksyrup]

I'm waiting to hear some slots strategy. How do you find the "hot" machines?

Screw the slots. I want some strategy on how to maximize my take on those quarter pusher arcade games.

[Passacaglia]

I'm waiting to hear some slots strategy. How do you find the "hot" machines?

First go to a nickel machine. If you lose there, jump up to a quarter. Keep going to slots of increasing value, until you win. Guaranteed to win money -- only reason people don't do it is because of all the running around to different machines.

[rkmsuf]

Screw the slots. I want some strategy on how to maximize my take on those quarter pusher arcade games.

If you miss on your first attempt drop two quarters in at the same time on your second attempt?

[TroyF]

jb,

Were you John Daly's personal gambling advisor?

[twothree]

This thread was the quickest I've seen a mathematical exercise turn into an (un)intentional comedy routine.

My "favorite" gambling strategy is... take all your gambling money (whatever, you can afford to lose) and bet it all on your favorite game of chance with the closest to 50/50 odds. No matter the outcome you stop gambling. This way you avoid the "house" taking your money in the long run, if you won the bet.

[Critch]

Instead of doubling up when you lose, you should triple up. That way when you win you cover your loses and make a profit too!

[Butter]

My "favorite" gambling strategy is... take all your gambling money (whatever, you can afford to lose) and bet it all on your favorite game of chance with the closest to 50/50 odds. No matter the outcome you stop gambling. This way you avoid the "house" taking your money in the long run, if you won the bet.

And I bet instead of trick-or-treating you just went to the store and bought candy, too.

[Vegas Vic]

Never bet more than you can afford to win.

[jbmagic]

I'm waiting to hear some slots strategy. How do you find the "hot" machines?


The one that has a cherry in the middle will do well for you. That the ones you should find.

[digamma]

The one that has a cherry in the middle will do well for you. That the ones you should find.

What do you mean? Cherry in the middle? Whipped cream on top?

I thought you were supposed to find the ones closer to the ATM machines.

[TroyF]

The one that has a cherry in the middle will do well for you. That the ones you should find.


Is this also your dating philosophy?

[jbmagic]

What do you mean? Cherry in the middle? Whipped cream on top?

I thought you were supposed to find the ones closer to the ATM machines.


lol

Seriously play slots machine that shows a cherry in the middle bar line. You will do very well.

[digamma]

lol

Seriously play slots machine that shows a cherry in the middle bar line. You will do very well.

How do I make sure it hits the cherry in the middle bar line?

[jbmagic]

Is this also your dating philosophy?


:) Yes that will also work. lol

You know Vegas once wanted to call it Sluts Machine. :)

[jbmagic]

How do I make sure it hits the cherry in the middle bar line?


You don't.


As long you find a slot machine with a cherry in the middle bar before you start. Then you got yourself a hot machine and will pay off nicely.

[ice4277]

You know Vegas once wanted to call it Sluts Machine. :)

We have officially reached the end of the internets.

[digamma]

You don't.


As long you find a slot machine with a cherry in the middle bar before you start. Then you got yourself a hot machine and will pay off nicely.

I guess I'm still confused. Does a cherry in the middle mean the last spin was a win? So it's hot. Drop it like it's hot, drop it like it's hot, drop it like it's hot. By the way, the coins are hot, when they come out of the machine. (Is that what you're talking about?) I drop those because they are hot.

Plus I found this wiki link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slot_machines) that says that there aren't really hot slots.


"Hot" and "Cold" machines

Standard slot machines do not get "hot" or "cold". The odds (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds) of hitting a winning combination are determined by a random number generator (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slot_machines#Random_number_generator) contained in the machine's software and is exactly the same with every spin. Such slot machines are never "due to be hit" if they haven't paid out a jackpot in a while.

Help me understand your strategy more.

[jbmagic]

I guess I'm still confused. Does a cherry in the middle mean the last spin was a win? So it's hot. Drop it like it's hot, drop it like it's hot, drop it like it's hot. By the way, the coins are hot, when they come out of the machine. (Is that what you're talking about?) I drop those because they are hot.

Plus I found this wiki link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slot_machines) that says that there aren't really hot slots.



Help me understand your strategy more.


That why Wiki is broke :)

[digamma]

That why Wiki is broke :)

So, then, why the cherry in the middle?

[Lathum]

That why Wiki is broke :)
dude, youre killing me, you need to stop it, I can't take no more it.

[st.cronin]

I don't know, I saw a few hot sluts in Vegas that I thought about hitting. Oh, wait ...

[jbmagic]

I don't know, I saw a few hot sluts in Vegas that I thought about hitting. Oh, wait ...


Any BJ? I mean Blackjack. :)

[Buccaneer]

You're right, SkyDog.

[Buccaneer]

(in that case, well done, yuk yuk, fuck you)

I suspect that's what a lot of people are going to say.

[Solecismic]

Oh, how did I miss this one?

The times I've been in Nevada, all I did was play blackjack, so I have some experience here.

The blackjack game built into TCY is limited, but the advice module is culled from a lot of statistical work, and it plays a good game.

If you play blackjack well, which means you memorize the basic charts, you can win 49% of the hands. If you count cards well, you can increase those odds to slightly over 50%. This means blackjack is the only game in Vegas where a good player can win money with average luck.

But that's not where the good players win their money. The Martingale System is for fools. You don't win money quickly playing blackjack. You win by playing smart and playing for a long time. At some point, you will lose eight hands in a row. There's nothing you can do about that. And the Martingale System guarantees that when that happens you lose your shirt - and more. Play the Martingale System long enough, and everybody loses. That, by definition, is a bad system.

The best blackjack players count cards and play conservatively most of the time. The counting improves game play slightly. But where it works is that counting should also determine how much you bet. And when the deck is rich in high cards - which work in the player's favor because the player can stop on 12-16 and the dealer can not, you bet higher. When the deck is particularly rich in high cards, a smart player is winning 55-60% of their hands, getting more 2-card 21s - and betting more on each hand.

Blackjack is the only game where someone behaving himself can get himself thrown out of a casino. The best card counters are known to every casino and are met by pit bosses before they can even sit down. But the pit bosses don't concern themselves with college kids playing at the $5 tables. I tried to get myself thrown out for card-counting, but when you're only up $100 on the $5 table, they leave you alone.

[Neuqua]

Any good place online to play blackjack? I mean besides the very basic Yahoo.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Any good place online to play blackjack? I mean besides the very basic Yahoo.
For real money or no?

[Neuqua]

Yes.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Yes.
Last I checked, Golden Palace Casino was doing a 300% bonus. I bought in for 100 pounds (lol british money) and cashed out 280 pounds after fulfilling the bonus requirement.

StarLuck and PlanetLuck casinos did some pretty good bonuses, too, but I did those several months ago, so I don't know if their terms are still the same. If you're interested in whoring some blackjack bonuses, there's some money to be made out there.

[GoldenEagle]

Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Subscribe now and get the Subby roulette newsletter for half off!

[Subby]

Always bet on green.

[GoldenEagle]

Last I checked, Golden Palace Casino was doing a 300% bonus. I bought in for 100 pounds (lol british money) and cashed out 280 pounds after fulfilling the bonus requirement.

StarLuck and PlanetLuck casinos did some pretty good bonuses, too, but I did those several months ago, so I don't know if their terms are still the same. If you're interested in whoring some blackjack bonuses, there's some money to be made out there.

Golden Palace - Depost $100
Bonus - $300
Winnings - $250
Cashout - $650

Baller, yo!

[GoldenEagle]

I was playing BJ at Victor Casino last night betting $10 a hand. I busted my $50 deposit after losing 6 of 8 hands and then it dawned that if I did the jbmagic system of play, I would have been like 3gs.

[sooner333]

This reminds me of freshman year in the dorms where my friend from the room next door started a sports betting account at a place that also had an online casino. Well, he'd get bored and play a $1 roulette spin on red, and if he'd lose he'd bet 2...the same system as done out here. Well, he'd always win his dollar and be satisfied. This went on for awhile, until he lost $100 in about two minutes one afternoon...we gave him a hard time about that one.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Golden Palace - Depost $100
Bonus - $300
Winnings - $250
Cashout - $650

Baller, yo!
If you'd deposited in British moon money instead of dollars, you'd have had about $1200. :D

[Bee]

The Martingale strategy always works. People who have failed with it just quit too soon.

And just one note...if you hit the table limit before winning, you need to move to a higher limit table where you can double your last bet. This is what obviously screws up many beginners.


:D

[ice4277]

And just one note...if you hit the table limit before winning, you need to move to a higher limit table where you can double your last bet. This is what obviously screws up many beginners.


Awesome! I'm going to be in Vegas this weekend, I'll try this and let you know how it goes. Thank God I have an AmEx card.

[Ajaxab]

Is anyone else astounded by the wisdom of jb given just how many questions the man churns out?

It's like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.

[ice4277]

Is anyone else astounded by the wisdom of jb given just how many questions the man churns out?

It's like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.

It's ironic, don'tcha think?

[Ajaxab]

Yeah, I really do think...

It's like rain on your wedding day.

[Maple Leafs]

General FOFC observation:

Does anyone else see threads like this, think "OK, that sounds boring", then notice two days later that it's up to four pages and wonder what's up? We really need some sort of icon or codeword for threads that start off generally harmless and uninteresting, then suddenly develop into something fantastic.

I suggest a small picture of Elisha Cuthbert be placed next to these threads by a mod.

[Butter]

General FOFC observation:

Does anyone else see threads like this, think "OK, that sounds boring", then notice two days later that it's up to four pages and wonder what's up? We really need some sort of icon or codeword for threads that start off generally harmless and uninteresting, then suddenly develop into something fantastic.

I suggest a small picture of Elisha Cuthbert be placed next to these threads by a mod.

I miss most of the drama/hilarity because of this very reason.

[st.cronin]

Nice idea, Maple Leafs, but instead of Cuthbert, it should be Debra Lefave.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I think it should be a picture of Antmeister.

[Honolulu_Blue]

General FOFC observation:

Does anyone else see threads like this, think "OK, that sounds boring", then notice two days later that it's up to four pages and wonder what's up? We really need some sort of icon or codeword for threads that start off generally harmless and uninteresting, then suddenly develop into something fantastic.

I suggest a small picture of Elisha Cuthbert be placed next to these threads by a mod.

Yes.

[Simms]

Or we could turn thread ratings on again.



*ducks*

[Barkeep49]

What if we just had a thread to the same effect? Kind of like the consecutive thread hilarity one? Could get bumped from time to time with a link and a quick summary of what is interesting.

[WSUCougar]

Sort of an FOFC bestseller list?

[Barkeep49]

Sort of an FOFC bestseller list?
Yes. Though I'm also a person who thinks an FOFC themed wiki would be useful...

[GoldenEagle]

Yes. Though I'm also a person who thinks an FOFC themed wiki would be useful...

That wiki broke.

[Barkeep49]

That wiki broke.
Is this a joke or was there an FOFC wiki that I missed? Because I think having a page for many of the "in jokes" and thread summaries of notable posts in things like the Maximum Football monster would be genuinely useful.

[Bad-example]

ok for bump?

[Desnudo]

A hot dog walks into a bar and the bartender says, "We don't serve food here."

[Pumpy Tudors]

This is one of the greatest threads in the history of FOFC history.

[bulletsponge]

Never bet more than you can afford to win.

never bet


best strategy for gambling

[MJ4H]

Boy did I miss this one the first time around.

[NoSkillz]

Boy did I miss this one the first time around.

Me too. My boss isn't happy I found it either...must learn to keep laughter down! :)

[Eaglesfan27]

General FOFC observation:

Does anyone else see threads like this, think "OK, that sounds boring", then notice two days later that it's up to four pages and wonder what's up? We really need some sort of icon or codeword for threads that start off generally harmless and uninteresting, then suddenly develop into something fantastic.

I suggest a small picture of Elisha Cuthbert be placed next to these threads by a mod.


No kidding. I'm just discovering this thread now, and only checked it out because of QS' reference to it in another thread. Some hilarious stuff in here.

The sad thing is my dad taught me this method when I was 12 or 13. Of course, he was a horrible gambling addict who frequently lost his money. Anyway, this convinces me. No more responding to jbmagic unless it is with the intent of humor.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Anyway, this convinces me. No more responding to jbmagic unless it is with the intent of humor.
Welcome aboard. :)

[jbmagic]

I stand by what I said.

It works, but you need patience.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I stand by what I said.

It works, but you need patience.
You need the patience to lose lots and lots of money.

[jbmagic]

No kidding. I'm just discovering this thread now, and only checked it out because of QS' reference to it in another thread. Some hilarious stuff in here.

The sad thing is my dad taught me this method when I was 12 or 13. Of course, he was a horrible gambling addict who frequently lost his money. Anyway, this convinces me. No more responding to jbmagic unless it is with the intent of humor.

I am sorry you feel this way. I never done anything to you and always respected you.

[cartman]

I stand by what I said.

It works, but you need patience.

jb, just because you asked on another message board 'What strategy work best for blackjack?" and some one replied "Martingale system", does not make it a valid or best to use system.

[MJ4H]

jbmagic, please, for the love of god, just read this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_system


The best summary I can give for why this system sucks comes from that article:

People think long losing streaks are impossible, but they aren't. In fact, they are practically guaranteed to happen eventually (the longer you play, the more likely they are to happen). When it does happen, just ONCE, you go broke.

Consider that it's not even that long a losing streak we are talking about here, in most cases. For instance if you have $1000 and are betting $5 to start, you will be broke after 9 losses in a row. That streak is not that rare. Even in a coinflip game that should happen about 1 in 500 tries. It could happen the very first time you try it. Blackjack is not a coinflip game. Your chances are worse long term in blackjack than in coinflipping, so it will happen sooner than in coinflipping on average. Remember, it only takes that one losing streak, and it WILL eventually happen.

[st.cronin]

I have to admit, I'm weirdly proud of this thread.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I wonder if jbmagic still stands behind "stick with one color in roulette so you're not jumping around all the time."

[jbmagic]

I wonder if jbmagic still stands behind "stick with one color in roulette so you're not jumping around all the time."

yes

Of course the key on either blackjack or roulette with this strategy is to know when to walk away. Your not going to lose every hand in Bj or come up one color always in Roulette.

This strategy has work for me. But not something I will do all the time.

Put it this way I won more times then I lost doing this strategy.

It might not be for all of you.

[MJ4H]

It might not be for all of you.

Right. We like strategies that aren't guaranteed to lose all our money.

[BrianD]

jb is right, use this system and you will walk away from the table a winner more times than you walk away a loser. Of course you will walk away having won $5 or losing $5,000, but that is another story.

[Buccaneer]

yes

Of course the key on either blackjack or roulette with this strategy is to know when to walk away. Your not going to lose every hand in Bj or come up one color always in Roulette.

This strategy has work for me. But not something I will do all the time.

Put it this way I won more times then I lost doing this strategy.

It might not be for all of you.

"Shut up! A year ago we'd have you banned with a fucking trout up your ass."


"You can talk, you can talk, you're brave now motherfucker. Ban this ass out. He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron!"

[cartman]

"Shut up! A year ago we'd have you banned with a fucking trout up your ass."


"You can talk, you can talk, you're brave now motherfucker. Ban this ass out. He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron!"

It's not funny. That's why you're a reject, never had no raids, never had no boardings. `The Pirates of Penzance,' that's it.

[CraigSca]

Please stop causing math problems.

[Pumpy Tudors]

jbmagic, what difference does it make whether you switch colors or not? Really, what's the difference? If you pick red, black, red, black, black, black, red, red, how does that alter your chances of winning? I'm serious here. I'm trying to understand the thought process.

[Passacaglia]

Haven't you guys seen the movie "In America"? It worked fine there!



Blah...I guess you guys were all too busy watching Lost In Translation around that time.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Please stop causing math problems.
This is not getting enough love.

[Toddzilla]

yes

Of course the key on either blackjack or roulette with this strategy is to know when to walk away. Your not going to lose every hand in Bj or come up one color always in Roulette.

This strategy has work for me. But not something I will do all the time.

Put it this way I won more times then I lost doing this strategy.

It might not be for all of you.I know I'm not the first person to try and explain something to you and fail, so I've got no reservations trying it again. Here we go.

Your strategy does not allow for you to walk away!

Your system is predicated on betting and betting until you win a hand. Your system dictates as it's single solitary fundamental rule that you cannot stop playing until you have doubled your bets until you win a hand and make back all the money you lost in the previous hands.

If you cannot grasp that simple concept, then please, I beg of you, turn off your computer, flush it down the toilet, and lock yourself in a closet.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I know that this thread has slowed down since the first day, but it provides the same fun factor as the Maximum Football thread for me. :)

[timmae]

I am seriously trying to come up with an image of this "asswhite" in my head... pics pls.

Preferably with wads of betting cash you are about to lose in front of you;)

[QuikSand]

One of the funnier things in this thread, after a certain point, is that the most logical and informed people are actually the ones who are trying to accomplish the impossible here.

[albionmoonlight]

"Shut up! A year ago we'd have you banned with a fucking trout up your ass."


"You can talk, you can talk, you're brave now motherfucker. Ban this ass out. He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron!"

:D

[Ajaxab]

Please don't dish the strategy, until you at least try it.

Try it for fun with free money to see how well it works.

So, uh, where can I get some of this free money of which you speak?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Best blackjack strategy:

Scout for table with hottest babes wearing low cut tops. Sit across from them as much as possible. Bet minimum, play long time, get free booze.

This strategy works everytime. Trust me. But must be patient.

[st.cronin]

Best blackjack strategy:

Scout for table with hottest babes wearing low cut tops. Sit across from them as much as possible. Bet minimum, play long time, get free booze.

This strategy works everytime. Trust me. But must be patient.

I am definitely going to give this a whirl.

[stevew]

"Shut up! A year ago we'd have you banned with a fucking trout up your ass."


"You can talk, you can talk, you're brave now motherfucker. Ban this ass out. He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron! He's a moron!"
++++

[cartman]

Man, I can't wait to give these blackjack and roulette strategies a try in June when I'm out in Vegas with Lathum and st.cronin!

[Lathum]

dude, I'm not fronting you the money for a plane ticket home

[Marc Vaughan]

Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Its available via. subscription - if you'd care to paypal me the small fee involved which you'd quickly win back obviously using the proprietary information contained in the newsletter ;)

[Lathum]

funniest.thread.ever.

[cartman]

funniest.thread.ever.

And the strategies worked!

:D

[Passacaglia]

I love how it took only 15 posts for an interesting discussion to turn into complete shit. And I'm still pissed no one caught my "In America" reference.

[Pumpy Tudors]

...I'm still pissed no one caught my "In America" reference.
It's OK. You eventually get used to it. I make lots of references that nobody catches. Hell, this post has a well-disguised The Bridges of Madison County reference, and nobody will get it. Nobody. Except for me.

Maybe.

[Lathum]

Best to stick with one color when doing that double strategy in Roulette. This way your not jumping around picking a color.

Please stop.

ok, so the movers are here emptying my house and I just cackeled out loud at this and got some very funny looks.

[Radii]

You better sticking to something else. if you lose that many hands in a row. Blackjack might not be your game.


2 years later this still may be my single favorite post on FOFC.

[Pumpy Tudors]

ok, so the movers are here emptying my house and I just cackeled out loud at this and got some very funny looks.
Uhhh, I guess now is a good time to tell you. Those aren't movers. They're my cousins.

[Eaglesfan27]

And the strategies worked!

:D


The one with hot babes in low cut blouses?

[digamma]

Okay, while it's admittedly more fun just to keep poking sticks at jb... here's a link that does a very nice job debunking the (very, very old and still just as flawed) Martingale betting system that he's advocating here:

hxxp://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/bettingsystems-martingale.html

In short, while it seems like a pretty small chance that you will run out of bets to make to get back to that small win -- the chance of getting there and actually losing a lot outweighs the actual benefit of the tiny wins that you do achieve with this betting system.

You basically end up with a long series of results that look something like this:

+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
-1280
(oh, fuck)


This is one of my favorite FOFC posts...OF ALL TIIIIIIMMMMMMEEEEEE.

[cartman]

The one with hot babes in low cut blouses?

That's the Pleasure Pit at Planet Hollywood. The dealers are all hot girls wearing lingerie. I fell deeply in lust with a blond dealer. Also table minimums are 2.5X higher in the Pleasure Pit.

[st.cronin]

I prefer the Pussycat Dolls at Caesar's Palace, but didn't find time to play there this trip. Its a nicer setup, and the girls seemed hotter.

[Lathum]

Uhhh, I guess now is a good time to tell you. Those aren't movers. They're my cousins.

, one of them offered to fix my food procesor

[Lathum]

That's the Pleasure Pit at Planet Hollywood. The dealers are all hot girls wearing lingerie. I fell deeply in lust with a blond dealer. Also table minimums are 2.5X higher in the Pleasure Pit.

he really did. It was a little creepy the way he was leering at her.

To bad it was a $25 table so he could only afford 3 losses in a row before JB's system tapped him out.

[albionmoonlight]

Too bad it was a $25 table so he could only afford 3 losses in a row before JB's system tapped him out.

Blackjack might not be his game.

[albionmoonlight]

Something that I never noticed about this thread:

Until it started discussing one of the worst betting systems in the world, it actually was gaining some steam as a legitimate discussion of the math behind basic strategy. The first dozen posts or so give you no idea of the jbawesomeness to follow.

[st.cronin]

I still don't understand the math between standing on A-9 when dealer shows 4-5-6. When I try the math on my own, I get "double" as a best bet.

[Lathum]

Just goes to show you no thread is safe

[st.cronin]

Here's how I work it out:

Assuming A 9 held by player, dealer shows 5. There are 3 As out of 49 cards left, giving 6.12% odds for a score of 21. Here's the table:

A 3 - 21 - 6.12
2 4 - 12 - 8.16
3 4 - 13 - 8.16
4 4 - 14 - 8.16
5 3 - 15 - 6.12
6 4 - 16 - 8.16
7 4 - 17 - 8.16
8 4 - 18 - 8.16
9 3 - 19 - 6.12
10 16 - 20 - 32.65

Adding the under 17 hands, we get:

21 - 6.12
less than 17 - 38.78
17 - 8.16
18 - 8.16
19 - 6.12
20 - 32.65

Dealer will bust about 40% of the time, giving all of those scores wins. In other cases (leaving pushes out of it): 20 will beat the dealer 75%. 19 will beat the dealer 50%. 18 will beat the dealer 25%. 17 and under will lose or push 100%. So add those to the table and we get:

21 - 6.12 (6.12)
less than 17 - 38.78 (15.51)
17 - 8.16 (3.26)
18 - 8.16 (3.26 + 1.25 = 4.51)
19 - 6.12 (2.45 + 1.84 = 4.29)
20 - 32.65 (13.06 + 14.69 = 27.75)

Adding up all the win expectancies I get 61.41, making this a sure double situation. Where is my error?

[cartman]

You are assuming a single deck situation, when most of the time there are 6 to 8 decks in play. The number of decks greatly changes the odds.

Another way to look at it is you are depending on the dealer to bust when you have A-9 and then double down. There is only one card (A) that can help you improve, a bunch of cards that keep you at the same level (Faces and 10s) which can be bust cards for the dealer, and the rest lower your position.

[CU Tiger]

You are assuming a single deck situation, when most of the time there are 6 to 8 decks in play. The number of decks greatly changes the odds.

Another way to look at it is you are depending on the dealer to bust when you have A-9 and then double down. There is only one card (A) that can help you improve, a bunch of cards that keep you at the same level (Faces and 10s) which can be bust cards for the dealer, and the rest lower your position.

He is also leaving out the unknown dealer card.
Most blackjack formulas *I think* assume a worst case, i.e. dealer has a pocket face card, lowering your odds a minor amount.

Butt moreover the formula is designed to maximize won hands not maximize dollars won.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I believe the golden rule (at least mine anyways) is that you never mess with a very strong hand (like A-9). Same reason you don't split face cards.

[QuikSand]

Adding up all the win expectancies I get 61.41, making this a sure double situation. Where is my error?

I haven't checked your math or anything, but isn't your error in assuming that 61% makes this a "sure double" situation? Are you perhaps forgetting the cost of the second bet to double down? Calculate your EV for one $100 bet if you stand and for two $100 bets if you double down. I think you're substantially better off standing pat on a nearly sure win than chasing a modestly likely double win here.

[Toddzilla]

I actually tried a version of this playing roulette and betting on the 3:1 payouts. I developed a progression of bets based on the payout so that I increased my bet only the smallest amount necessary to recoup my previous losses plus one more. I actually did pretty well for the first day or two. Day 3 resulted in the QS-illustrated "oh shit" demonstration.

[flere-imsaho]

A somewhat related question, but aside from giving the player an advantage, is there another specific reason why casinos don't let players count cards?

[cartman]

A somewhat related question, but aside from giving the player an advantage, is there another specific reason why casinos don't let players count cards?

There is no rule banning the counting of cards, but the rule allowing casinos to deny entry to anyone for any reason trumps all.

[Maple Leafs]

However, there is a rule against counting cards with another player, or otherwise co-operating at the table.

You might be able to get a slight edge by counting cards by yourself, but it will be easy for the dealer to notice and you can be politely asked to leave. If you want to really make money you probably need to work with a partner, and that's how you wind up talking to a nice man in a soundproof room.

[MJ4H]

A somewhat related question, but aside from giving the player an advantage, is there another specific reason why casinos don't let players count cards?

No, that is the exact and only reason why they don't. It means that the player has an edge and will take money from the casino.

[hhiipp]

Your worst enemy at the table usually isn't the dealer, but an idiot who doesn't know the basics of the game.

[BrianD]

Your worst enemy at the table usually isn't the dealer, but an idiot who doesn't know the basics of the game.

Is this really true or just a perception? It seem that of all the times I see a "bad play" when the dealer has a 16 (for example), half the time it is a guy splitting 10s and and eating up bust cards, and the other half it is a guy hitting a 15 and grabbing a 5 from the deck to make the dealer bust. Have there been studies to show how players playing right are affected by those playing wrong?

[MikeVic]

Your worst enemy at the table usually isn't the dealer, but an idiot who doesn't know the basics of the game.

This is a gripe of mine, and why I won't play sometimes. I mean the attitude people give towards the people that don't play by the book. Sometimes I feel like hitting on a 14 when the dealer is showing a non-face card. Don't get all pissy with me when I do it. I see the first and lat seats at a table free often, and I'd guess it's because people "have to know what they're doing" to play from there?

[Toddzilla]

Your worst enemy at the table usually isn't the dealer, but an idiot who doesn't know the basics of the game.It's been proven that mathematically, it doesn't matter what other clowns at the table do, however it does take a toll psychologically, so it is usually best to get up and leave if there is some moron there.

[Lathum]

IT is very frstrating when someone makes a stupid play, but it doesn't really make a difference.

And it is their money to lose.

My wife is hesitant to play at times for fear of making a bad play and someone yelling at her.

[cartman]

My wife is hesitant to play at times for fear of making a bad play and someone yelling at her.

Oh yeah, sorry about that.

[Lathum]

Oh yeah, sorry about that.

well she would yell back at YOU

[cartman]

well she would yell back at YOU

Your wife yelling at me on one side, and then a psychotic dealer attacking my chip stack with her plastic bill-pusher-down-the-slot thing made for an eventful table.

[Lathum]

nice

[QuikSand]

Your worst enemy at the table usually isn't the dealer, but an idiot who doesn't know the basics of the game.

There are definitely tons of idiots around these tables.

[hhiipp]

While it may not be proven mathematically. Dealer shows a 4 if you stand on 13 the next person then hits on 13 and they bust with 23 and the dealer then pulls a 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 or any combination that nets them between 17 and 21, their bad play did in fact effect your outcome.

[BrianD]

While it may not be proven mathematically. Dealer shows a 4 if you stand on 13 the next person then hits on 13 and they bust with 23 and the dealer then pulls a 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 or any combination that nets them between 17 and 21, their bad play did in fact effect your outcome.

And if that idiot pulls a 7 followed by the dealer pulling a 10 for a 24?

[Passacaglia]

Wow, just when you thought this thread was over. The fact that this is a more common misperception makes this tangent come off like a bad sequel, though.

[hhiipp]

I didn't mean to start this into another jbmagic portion of the thread.

Personally what it boils down to for me is I'd rather lose straight up to the dealer because the cards fell their way than to have a player pull the dealers bust card on a 'bad play', someone not playing by the general rules, and then have the dealer beat me. Psychologically it's a different type of defeat.

[RPI-Fan]

I didn't mean to start this into another jbmagic portion of the thread.

Personally what it boils down to for me is I'd rather lose straight up to the dealer because the cards fell their way than to have a player pull the dealers bust card on a 'bad play', someone not playing by the general rules, and then have the dealer beat me. Psychologically it's a different type of defeat.

Ok, fine. So what do you think about the psychological "wins" you get when bad players make plays that end up 'helping' you (note that there is NO factual argument that can be made this won't happen every bit as often as bad plays hurting you).

[hhiipp]

I feel relieved. The couple of times I've been to casinos if a person didn't understand how to use the hand signals to signify hit or stay after 2-3 hands I walk away in order to avoid possible frustration to come.

While in Windsor a few weeks ago a smoking hot chick sat down with her very average friend, and while I would have loved to just sit there and stare at her jumbliees it was obvious that neither of them had a clue what was even going on. So after a few hands of gawking I politely got up, took a walk around the casino, and went back to the same table when they had lost all their money.

[QuikSand]

Psychologically it's a different type of defeat.

If you had started with "no, I realize it doesn't mean anything to my ability to win or lose, I just find it tough to deal with" then we wouldn't all be salivating over the idea that we have another aspiring jb in our midst. But if you really want to insist that the game's actual odds change based on other people's play... please, by all means, entertain us.

[gstelmack]

If everyone is supposed to play exactly correctly by some perceived set of rules, then why play at all? Couldn't you just shuffle the deck, have it tell everyone how much money they won or lost, and then shuffle again? At least that way you could win or lose all your money much faster and get on to something else.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Somehow, I don't quite understand the "psychological defeat" concept in blackjack. Not to say that losing isn't frustrating (in my limited experience, I've never won a hand of blackjack in my life), but I don't see how the frustration can affect your play. If you're playing by using a set of rules or basic strategy or whatever, those are still easy and concrete rules to follow no matter how many hands you've won or lost. I can see it in poker because the action around you is fluid and your decisions can change based on certain situations. With blackjack, though, if you're savvy enough to think that someone else at the table made a "bad" play, then you know what your "correct" play is, right? If you're all geared up to play blackjack for two hours, for instance, what benefit is there to getting up and finishing your session later? Assuming you use the same strategy and the table structure is the same, it's not like your chance of winning is going to be different later.

I admit that I may be missing something.

[MikeVic]

If everyone is supposed to play exactly correctly by some perceived set of rules, then why play at all? Couldn't you just shuffle the deck, have it tell everyone how much money they won or lost, and then shuffle again? At least that way you could win or lose all your money much faster and get on to something else.

Exactly. Let me play the game how I want to play it.

[QuikSand]

I admit that I may be missing something.

You are not.

[QuikSand]

If everyone is supposed to play exactly correctly by some perceived set of rules, then why play at all? Couldn't you just shuffle the deck, have it tell everyone how much money they won or lost, and then shuffle again? At least that way you could win or lose all your money much faster and get on to something else.

They have that game, it's called baccarat.

[albionmoonlight]

This isn't news, but a lot of gamblers like to think that they are somehow controlling games of pure chance. That's why Baccarat players take all those notes, and why roulette players like those boards showing what numbers have been hitting, and why craps and blackjack players like to talk about "hot" and "cold" tables.

But it is all, of course, bullshit. If you have fun getting free drinks and losing your money at a 1%-5% rate, then go to Vegas and play the table games. I enjoy them a fair bit, myself. And, if it is more fun for you to keep detailed notes on how the dice are rolling in craps, then please go ahead. I am sure that the casino will even lend you the pencil.

But you are being a tool when you make other people feel bad for not playing "your" way.

[Crim]

This is going to be a long (measured in linear feet due to quotes, not measured in my own witty contribution) post, but it must be said:

Awesome Strategy = How The Casinos Can Build Those Magnificent Edifices and Still Afford To Serve Free Booze

Do you understand the difference between these two phrases? I'm thinking that you don't.

Okay, while it's admittedly more fun just to keep poking sticks at jb... here's a link that does a very nice job debunking the (very, very old and still just as flawed) Martingale betting system that he's advocating here:

hxxp://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/bettingsystems-martingale.html

In short, while it seems like a pretty small chance that you will run out of bets to make to get back to that small win -- the chance of getting there and actually losing a lot outweighs the actual benefit of the tiny wins that you do achieve with this betting system.

You basically end up with a long series of results that look something like this:

+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
-1280
(oh, fuck)

Please stop.

I assure you it is not my game. But at least I'm aware of that fact.

I'm now sorry for my continued contributions to the thread at this point. Either I am up against:

- a guy who revels in his complete cluelessness, making any honest efforts totally pointless (in that case, best of luck to you jb)

or

-an alias address who enjoys tweaking this forum (and others) and has dedicated an absolutely enormous amount of time to doing so (in that case, well done, yuk yuk, fuck you)

This thread is becoming a free-for-all now.

What would really be great would be if we could all get together, connect all our computers to a lot of other ones, and be able to do research and actually find out about this sort of thing. You know, some kind of inter-network system that people like us could use to actually learn what is actually correct, rather than just spouting off on what we think might be correct. That would be so cool... then stuff like this wouldn't even have to happen.

There are definitely tons of idiots around these tables.

If you had started with "no, I realize it doesn't mean anything to my ability to win or lose, I just find it tough to deal with" then we wouldn't all be salivating over the idea that we have another aspiring jb in our midst. But if you really want to insist that the game's actual odds change based on other people's play... please, by all means, entertain us.

They have that game, it's called baccarat.

While jbmagic has clearly earned some sort of award with his performance in this thread, props to QuikSand for a transcendant supporting role. Well done as usual, QS.

[Lathum]

bump

cartman made me do it, plus it's proof I know how to use the search feature

[Shkspr]

bump

cartman made me do it, plus it's proof I know how to use the search feature


Although, sadly, he was searching using the phrase "Elisha Cuthbert Pussycat Dolls salivating psychotic".

[albionmoonlight]

Everytime someone starts a post in a gambling thread with "[w]hile it may not be proven mathematically," an angel1 in Las Vegas gets its wings.


1One of those Cirque du Soleil angels.

[Toddzilla]

QS is the wind beneath my wings...

[flere-imsaho]

I'm glad someone bumped this as it brought a smile to my morning. :D

[Coffee Warlord]

Just....wow.

So we're sitting at work talking about gambling. Got to blackjack. Guy next to me...

"You know how you win at blackjack? You bet one, you lose, you double it, you lose, you double that. When you win, you just put that extra aside. That's how you make money."

[MJ4H]

I have prayed for this thread to show back up.

[Lathum]

Just....wow.

So we're sitting at work talking about gambling. Got to blackjack. Guy next to me...

"You know how you win at blackjack? You bet one, you lose, you double it, you lose, you double that. When you win, you just put that extra aside. That's how you make money."

Holy Crap, did you even try and explain it to him?

[Coffee Warlord]

Holy Crap, did you even try and explain it to him?

I didn't have the heart. I told him that was an excellent way to lose everything and his only response was, "The Israelis (clients) taught us that!"

S'okay. This is also the guy who thinks he knows horse racing.

[Toddzilla]

Take him to that riverboat near St. Charles and watch the fun...

[Lathum]

Best to stick with one color when doing that double strategy in Roulette. This way your not jumping around picking a color.

Please stop.

this is my favorite part

[MJ4H]

why on earth would anyone want that to stop? :D

[Lathum]

so my wife and I are out with another couple Friday night, my wife and the other lady work together. I know the husband OK, chat in passing at work functions, been skiing with them, stuff like that.

So we are talking gambling and we start talking about roulette. He tells me he only bets the outside and has a great system that he never loses at. You can imagine the rest...

[flere-imsaho]

:D

[cartman]

Bringing this epic thread back for a more serious discussion.

I was in Vegas a couple of weeks ago, and saw a new game called 'Blackjack Switch'. It allows you to play two hands, and if you'd like, switch the second card dealt to each hand between the hands. Seems like easy money, right? But there's a catch. Blackjacks are only paid even money, and if the dealer gets a 22, then all hands push. I'm very leery of these new games, as they all seem to have a huge house edge.

But this one appears to only have a 0.2% house edge. But to get to that, there is a ton of math involved around the proper times to switch the cards.

hxxp://wizardofodds.com/blackjackswitch

The strategy once the switch decision is made is straightforward, but the math behind the switch decision is mind numbing. That is a lot to memorize and keep track of. But I like a challenge! :)

I'm heading back out to Vegas at the beginning of October, and probably will give this a shot between time at the poker tables. Anyone have any first hand experience with this variant?

[Ben E Lou]

Okay, while it's admittedly more fun just to keep poking sticks at jb... here's a link that does a very nice job debunking the (very, very old and still just as flawed) Martingale betting system that he's advocating here:

hxxp://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/bettingsystems-martingale.html

In short, while it seems like a pretty small chance that you will run out of bets to make to get back to that small win -- the chance of getting there and actually losing a lot outweighs the actual benefit of the tiny wins that you do achieve with this betting system.

You basically end up with a long series of results that look something like this:

+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
-1280
(oh, fuck)

You better sticking to something else. if you lose that many hands in a row. Blackjack might not be your game.
:lol:


I'm not sure if I missed this the first time around, or just forgot about it. Awesomeness.

[Lathum]

:lol:


I'm not sure if I missed this the first time around, or just forgot about it. Awesomeness.

yeah, one of the best posts in FOFC history

[QuikSand]

Having yet another occasion to look back on this thread, I find myself reading it -- especially my own contributions -- sort of like a football team and coaching staff going over our own game film.

Oh, I can't believe he actually said that...you have to correct that... okay, that was good... all right, I think you got it right that time... NO WAY... okay, now try to talk him down...yes, yes, yes... WTF???....Hmm, maybe it's time to try a different approach... Wow, this guy is a brick... I give up... wait, no... No, I'M ALL IN NOW...

Anyway... thread just delivers, no matter what.