Fantasy Football: Keeper League Draft Advice

[johnnyshaka]

I've taken over a team in a 12-team Keeper league that uses typical yards and TD points where we get to keep a full lineup from year to year...here's who I inherited (keepers had to be named by the Conference Championships last January):

T. Brady
D. McAllister, J. Jones
J. Porter, J. Horn
C. Cooley
S. Janikowski
T.B. Def/ST

We have an 8-round (regular, not serpentine) draft this week and I have the 4th pick in each round. One more thing worth noting is that we have a flex starter each week with no limitations.

So, here's my dilemma:

I'm very happy with my QB, TE, K, and Def but my RBs and WRs are the shits. So, with a keeper league in mind, how should I be drafting?? Here are the top available guys on my board:

Bush - most certainly will be taken first overall...if not, the guy should be shot.
Foster - Injury issues aside, he's probably the best back available.
Chester Taylor - Feature back and will more than likely be a keeper for next year.
Dunn - Should see the endzone more often this season but will he breakdown with a bigger workload?
Fred Taylor - Now that Jones is done he should see the majority of the touches, but can he stay healthy?

Now, these guys should be the top guys on the rest of the league's lists, so I'll definitely get one of these guys. Now, let's assume Bush is gone by the time it gets to me, who left on the list is a for sure keeper?? Here's what I'm getting at...Roy Williams is available for draft as well and he has to be one of the top receivers in the league with Kitna and Martz now in his corner and he would be a for sure keeper...do I go away from conventional wisdom and pick a WR in the first round just because he's a keeper? Do I pick a RB like Dunn or Taylor who may not necessarily be keepers to help my team this year or look to trying to better my team for years down the road?

Thanks in advance for any advice.

[MikeVic]

I can't really give advice if I don't know what is out there... you gave a list of a few players, but what else is there? Any other WR other than Roy?

[Celeval]

Hard to imagine Roy Williams not going in the first round there. I absolutely take him over any of the other listed (+ rookies) except Reggie Bush. The Rookie QBs are picks for the future, Maroney is a quality pick, but other than that I don't see a lot of fantasy impact from the rooks.

[johnnyshaka]

Other guys available that are on my list...just not in my top 5 would be:

Addai/Rhodes - I'd be tempted to take Addai with my first pick but I'm still not certain if he's going to be the real deal in Indy as he hasn't shown much in preseason and Rhodes has done a good job over the years behind Edge. So, to me, if I want to help myself out this year, he's not a top 5 pick.

Dillon - Not sure if he's going to be the starter for much longer.

Thomas Jones - I'm thinking Benson will be the starter by week 4 or 5, so unless I make a deal for Benson, which I may do, I'm staying away from Jones.

Bronco's RBs - Not going to gamble my first pick with any of these guys.

Musa Smith - Sleeper on a lot of guys boards, but not first round worthy at all.

As for wideouts still on the board:

Galloway
Branch
Glenn
Mason
Wilford
Matt Jones
Moulds
Kennison
McCardell
Toomer
Lloyd
Givens

Those are probably the best available receivers.

As for drafting a QB...definitely not...I'm happy with Brady and I can't see carrying over any other guy if I were to draft a rookie. If I were drafting at the bottom I'd probably look at a Leinart or Cutler but not where I'm drafting especially with my lack lustre backfield and wideouts.

[johnnyshaka]

Now that there's a little discussion going on...I'll give this a bump.

[rkmsuf]

I think you take Roy Williams there and come back with what's leftover in the RB pool. All the backs listed are interchangable to me as far as the veterans go.

At least McCallister and Jones are servicable.

[MikeVic]

Relating to my thread, I'd take Dunn or Roy Williams. I don't know how the people in your league draft, but after Williams there's a drop in WR. So I'll actually agree with what rkmsuf said above.

[rowech]

You pretty much have to take a WR with what you have.

[johnnyshaka]

Boy...totally the opposite of what I thought I'd hear. Guess that is a little reassuring because Williams is really tempting.

As for the way past drafts have gone, I asked the commish for a list of the past picks and over the last couple of years the guys have gone for RBs about 90% of the time in the first round and the majority of them are vets who are more than likely not carryovers...just guys who should get them some points for that season alone.

[rowech]

Your current RBs are those veteran guys. They'll both get you some points. The only RBs there aren't going to give you unbelievably better numbers than the two guys you have. I'd say if Bush, Foster, or Dunn fell to you, you would take one of them. Otherwise, I think you have to for the WR and hope Chester Taylor comes back around to you.

[johnnyshaka]

Guaranteed that Chester Taylor doesn't fall to me in the 2nd round...I'd even be surprised if he gets to me in the first round.

[rkmsuf]

Just one person's opinion but after watching Indy I think Addai will be a huge bust barring sharp improvement. I see very little talent there...slow, indecisive, lacking power...meh.

Foster might make it back to you.

[Ryche]

Laurence Maroney would be worth looking at. Even if he doesn't get significant carries this year, which I think he will, he will almost certainly be the starter in New England next year. I could see him slipping to you in the second round if you're lucky.

[johnnyshaka]

The other the issue I have to deal with in this league is that instead of a waiver wire they have supplemental drafts after week 4, week 7, and week 10 so picking up guys is not all that easy. To boot, there is a rule that you have to always have every position filled every week. So, works out that I need to draft another kicker and Def/ST in this first draft because their bye weeks fall before the first supp. draft, so that really only leaves me with 6 picks in this first go 'round. J. Jones and Porter have byes in week 3 so I need a starting back and receiver out of this first draft not to mention somebody to start as my flex...can be any position, hopefully a back or a good QB.

So, with all of that weighing in on the first draft, I HAVE to pick a kicker and DEF...last two picks of my draft...I HAVE to draft at least one back and one receiver...and I need at least one more solid contributor for my flex position...so, really, that only leaves me with 3 picks to grab rookies or potential sleepers and some depth...like handcuffing my backs.