Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Chubby]

Well I'm in my new house and the comp and internet seem reliable finally (I really hate moving).

Anywho, this game is based on Resident Evil tho no knowledge of previous games or the movies is required. I think my game will be easily playable by vets and rookies. It's a fairly "straight forward" game, by that I mean everything is spelled out... no roles not mentioned in the rules, no hidden qualities like "can not night kill" (unless specifically mentioned in the rules). I do this because while I enjoy games with twists in them, it generally aggrevates me when these things pop up. Any twists in this game will not mess with what you are told in the rules (and won't break the rules as well), this is why I think that even tho there's a lot of possible roles that it will be enjoyable by both vets and newer players.

[Chubby]

Werewolf XXXVI: Raccoon City
It's been years since Raccoon City had been saved by S.T.A.R.S. and the zombie threat eliminated once and for all.
Or so they thought...

Umbrella had been "held in check" by Special Investagator Ben Lewis but Ben has disappeared and not heard from in two weeks. While it is unknown what Mr. Lewis' role was, it was widely known that he had been a member of S.T.A.R.S. and that he had been put in charge of monitoring any "special projects" Umbrella might be running.

Rumors have been swirling in the press about what could be behind recent events: cemetaries being robbed, an increase in murders, increased activity at Umbrella, and yes even talk about the possible reappearance of zombies in our midst.

A quarantine has been put into effect, along with a city wide curfew. All residents of Raccoon City must remain in their homes from sundown until sunrise.


Roles may or may not be in the game.
* = special roles

There are three factions in this game, each with their own winning conditions:

S.T.A.R.S.
You are the elite task force set up by the Raccoon City Police Department. Your skills will be put to the test once again in an effort to save Racoon City from the clucthes of darkness. Your mission is to eliminate the zombie threat and bring the members of Umbrella to justice.

You win when all Zombies are dead, ummm, REALLY dead.

You do not know your teammates and have no PM abilities.

*Police Chief - You are the only member of S.T.A.R.S. that knows the identity of all your fellow members. You still have no PM privileges, you may be good at catching criminals but you suck at email. Role revealing has dire consequences for S.T.A.R.S.

*Internal Affairs - Has the abiltiy to find out one player's faction per night via detective work at the RCPD after hours.

*SWAT Team Leader - Can protect one person per night. 100% block rate unless Nemesis is involved. If attacked by (or protecting the person attacked by) Nemesis, they will die. Can not protect the same person two nights in a row.

*Omega Team Leader - Can interrogate one player at RCPD nightly to find out if they are a member of Umbrella.

*Survalliance Specialist - Can watch one player's home each evening to see whether curfew is being followed.

*Sniper - May attempt a night kill on two different nights. If the sniper kills a member of S.T.A.R.S. or Umbrella then the sniper will take his own life out of guilt.

Zombies

You are the undead. How you were created remains a mystery. You like eating brains, a lot.

You win whem your numbers equal the numbers of S.T.A.R.S. and Umbrella put together.

You know your teammates and have full PM abilities

All zombies have the ability to attempt a night kill. Solo attempts have a 50% success rate. Dual attempts have a 100% success rate. If the kill attempt fails, there's a 12.5% chance of being discovered as the zombie makes it's retreat.

*Nemesis - Must be created via kidnap. Can not be night killed. Has 100% chance of successful solo night kill. If attacking the SWAT Team Leader or the person he is protecting then the kill will be sucessful but role will be revealed.

*Infector - This type of zombie may attempt to infect a player and turn him into a zombie instead of killing him. If target is vaccinated then the Infector loses all ability to attempt to infect future people. Can not use power until night 3. 1st attempt has 100% success rate (if target is not vaccinated). Each successive attempt has the success rated halved. Can
not attempt to infect successive nights.

Umbrella

You are a member of the Umbrella Corporation. What has your company been up to recently?

You win when all S.T.A.R.S. members have been "taken care of"

You know your teammates and have full PM abilities

*Edward Ashford - As the lead scientist at Umbrella in Raccoon City, you have the ability to do research each night in your research facilities. Yes it's a boring ability, but you ARE a scientist.

*James Marcus - May view one player's faction per night by hacking into the Internal Affaris computers from Umbrella HQ.

*Ozwell E Spencer - May attempt to kidnap a player once to turn them into Nemesis. If the person kidnapped is already a zombie then both Ozwell and the zombie will be killed. Can not attempt a kidnap until night 4.

*Umbrella Security - You may protect one Umbrella scientist per night. Can not protect the same scientist on successive nights. If attacked you will die but take out the zombie that attacked you, unless it's Nemesis, then you're screwed.


Abilties With No Faction Bearing

*Vaccinated - Immune to being infected by the zombie virus. How did they come to be immune? Is there a cure?

*Lucky - Day vote counts double as long as the player voted for a member of an opposing faction the previous day.

These abilities are pre-assigned to players but are not visibile to to anyone until player's death.


Once one faction achieves their victory condition the game is over.
Deadlines are 11 PM EST for lynch votes and 9 AM EST for night actions (unless otherwise instructed).
Roles will be revealed upon your brutal death.
Good luck, and watch out for those damn dogs jumping through the window.

[Chubby]

There is no player cap, the more the merrier to be quite honest!

Players:
1. Alan T - Killed Night Four - S.T.A.R.S.
2. St Cronin - Lynched Day Three - S.T.A.R.S.
3. Dodgerchick - Lynched Day Six - Umbrella
4. path12 - Snipered Night Four - Zombie
5. ntndeacon - Killed Night Three - S.T.A.R.S.
6. Lathum - Lynched Day Two - Umbrella - Ozwell E Spencer
7. Glengoyne - Lynched Day Four - Zombie Infector
8. Mr. Wednesday
9. Tyrith - Killed Night Two - S.T.A.R.S. - Omega Team Leader
10. Chief Rum - Lynched Day Seven - Zombie
11. Fouts - Killed Night Six - S.T.A.R.S. - Internal Affairs
12. lonestargirl - Killed Night Five - S.T.A.R.S.
13. saldana - Killed Night Two - S.T.A.R.S.
14. SnDvls - Lynched Day Five - Umbrella - Umbrella Security
15. bulletsponge - Lynched Day One - S.T.A.R.S.
16. spleen1015
17. hoopsguy
18. BrianD
19. KWhit - Killed Night One - S.T.A.R.S.

[Alan T]

I'll sign up (and maybe if fast enough get in the way of your rules!)

[Grammaticus]

Chubby, is this a short game or for the long one?

[Alan T]

Chubby, is this a short game or for the long one?

Chubby said in the sign up thread that this is a long (main) game, not a short/smaller one.

[Alan T]

Chubby said in the sign up thread that this is a long (main) game, not a short/smaller one.

And by signup thread I meant gm hosting thread, since we're signing up for this here :) But i know you all know what i meant!

[st.cronin]

in

[Abe Sargent]

In

[Chubby]

Chubby, is this a short game or for the long one?

Well depends on the players :) but it's for the next long one.

[path12]

I'm in.

[ntndeacon]

in

[Lathum]

in

[Barkeep49]

I think rather than calling it short/long we should call it main/side or large/small. Theoretically we could have larger games go a short period of time.

I am sorry to be sitting this one out, as my work schedule makes it prohobitive, at the moment, to be committing to a WW game.

[Neuqua]

I'm not quite ready to step up to the "big leagues" but am having a lot of fun with WW. I'll be watching this one from the outside. One more small game and I may make the plunge.

[Glengoyne]

Sign me up

[path12]

I'm not quite ready to step up to the "big leagues" but am having a lot of fun with WW. I'll be watching this one from the outside. One more small game and I may make the plunge.

Go for it -- the water's fine.

[Mr. Wednesday]

In.

[Tyrith]

In.

And yeah Neuqua, the best way to learn is to actually play. You can't get the same learning experience without getting the reactions of the more experienced players as things happen. Also, it seems like lots of people will have PM abilities in this game, so there's a pretty decent chance you'll wind up on one of those teams and get to talk to a vet as the game is actually going on.

[st.cronin]

I also would like to point out that I don't think the big/complex games are any harder than the simple/small games.

[Chief Rum]

In

[Fouts]

I'll join.

[Chubby]

updated

[LoneStarGirl]

put me in coach

[saldana]

in

[SnDvls]

I'll jump in again

[bulletsponge]

BRAINS!

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, when are you expecting to start the game? Also, are you planning to post on the main board to see if there is any interest beyond the people who visit here?

If we are starting later in the week I'm definitely in. If we are starting Monday I'm probably still in but will be very busy early in the game.

[Alan T]

Vote hoops...


oh too early for that I guess.

[hoopsguy]

Two minutes from my tentative sign-up - that may be a new record.

[Alan T]

Two minutes from my tentative sign-up - that may be a new record.

I would have done it sooner but was distracted trying to figure out if I really want to keep playing the new railroads game.

[Chubby]

hoopa - I plan on sending out roles tomorrow night (tues) and starting wed.

[spleen1015]

Sign me up, I guess.

[hoopsguy]

I'm in.

Vote ALL VILLAGERS FROM TOMBSTONE

[Alan T]

I'm in.

Vote ALL VILLAGERS FROM TOMBSTONE

whew, I avoided this one then.

[st.cronin]

edited because At's game is still going on

[BrianD]

I'll join if there is room.

[Chubby]

Of course there's room, no player cap. The bigger the game the better :)

[Tyrith]

Chubby, don't miss hoops sign up before Brian's.

[KWhit]

I'll play.

[LoneStarGirl]

when are we starting

[Alan T]

hoopa - I plan on sending out roles tomorrow night (tues) and starting wed.

Looks like wednesday.

[Lathum]

chubby, the rules say role reveals go bad for STARS under the captains role. Is that if the captain reveals peoples roles or if any members of STARS reveal?

[Chubby]

Lathum - If the Police Chief reveals it's bad news for S.T.A.R.S. there's no consequences if the other members of S.T.A.R.S. reveal since Police Chief is kinda special.

[Alan T]

Can the police chief not even put out trust/untrust lists either? Or are they simply prevented from coming out and saying "I am the police chief and player X, Y and Z are good guys?

[Alan T]

Ahh today is passing too slowly without any WW to read or participate in.

[Chubby]

Alan - That's something that I would discuss with the PC if they are in the game. I don't want the PC to just come out and go "I trust..." and rattle of 10+ names...

[ntndeacon]

Can the police chief not even put out trust/untrust lists either? Or are they simply prevented from coming out and saying "I am the police chief and player X, Y and Z are good guys?

the problem with that, is even if it was allowed those folks would soon be executed, either by Lynching (2/3 to 1/3) or night actions. At the very least it would cause the STARS not to win.

[Alan T]

the problem with that, is even if it was allowed those folks would soon be executed, either by Lynching (2/3 to 1/3) or night actions. At the very least it would cause the STARS not to win.

I was assuming due to the handicaps, that the STARS would have more people than the other two "bad" teams.

[Alan T]

I guess that makes me rethink the game dynamics a bit. Coming into this pre-roles I had figured it was like 50% of the players were STARS (roled or non-roled good guys). I think we have to assume that there are non-roled people on teams due to there not being enough roles to cover the players.

Stars win when zombies are eliminated (typical good vs bad)
Umbrella wins when the Stars are eliminated (Alternate evil team)
Zombies win when their numbers equal the numbers of other teams combined (typical bad guy winning conditions)

I think the Umbrella team is whats confusing this in my head, how they fit in. With about 20 people, I think seeing 3-4 Zombies would be about right. THat leaves 15-16 or so for the other two teams.

I would assume normally that based on winning conditions you would have an equal number of stars and Umbrella members. The catch however is it seems the Umbrella team has advantages over the Stars, so that likely is made up in raw numbers. Perhaps 9 stars, 7 Umbrella and 4 zombies roughly is what we are looking at.

If so, this makes it pretty interesting to start, do people come out and say they are a basic villager? :) If you do, you'll have more than 50% of the people after you.

[Alan T]

Maybe 10-6-4 is more realistic and would fit my 50% model that I had stuck in my head...

But I'm babbling.

[hoopsguy]

These posts do not count.

[Alan T]

These posts do not count.

Thats why Im getting my posts out of the way now. When the game starts, I'm going to be a low key player with very low posts staying under the radar.

[spleen1015]

LYNCH Alan T

[Alan T]

LYNCH Alan T

I hope I end up on your team and you have to find some way to weasel out of this!

[Glengoyne]

LYNCH Alan T

I want to come out right now and say that I'm Pro Lynch. I've waffled on the fence, and probably will again throughout this game. I just want to state for the record that I'm Anti-Lynch.

[Alan T]

I want to come out right now and say that I'm Pro Lynch. I've waffled on the fence, and probably will again throughout this game. I just want to state for the record that I'm Anti-Lynch.

We will have to agree to disagree then!

[Grammaticus]

Thats why Im getting my posts out of the way now. When the game starts, I'm going to be a low key player with very low posts staying under the radar.

No, they REALLY dont count.

[Alan T]

I guess this is alot like War games then. The only way to win is to just not play!

[spleen1015]

I hope I end up on your team and you have to find some way to weasel out of this!

Bah! That's easy.

UNLYNCH Alan T

The hasn't started, so no harm done. :D

[Glengoyne]

We will have to agree to disagree then!


That should be easy, as I'm having trouble agreeing with myself.

[Alan T]

That should be easy, as I'm having trouble agreeing with myself.

I disagree

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I never thought I would say this about another person in this forum, but ... you need to get a hobby to tide you over between werewolf games :)

[Chubby]

As I don't think it was spelled out in the rules:

You must vote to lynch each day
A tie vote results in no lynch

[Alan T]

Alan, I never thought I would say this about another person in this forum, but ... you need to get a hobby to tide you over between werewolf games :)

Work is my hobby between WW games. I've been on the phone with Cisco support all day though in regards to some failed hardware that I have, so been somewhat a slow day for me :)

[SnDvls]

I see Alan is already woking the. I've posted more than so and so angle. He's skewing the numbers too early. We'll just have to adjust his posts here. Always see his post numbers and subtract 50. :)

[Alan T]

I see Alan is already woking the. I've posted more than so and so angle. He's skewing the numbers too early. We'll just have to adjust his posts here. Always see his post numbers and subtract 50. :)

I'm going to get my post count up to 100 before day 1 starts and then disappear for like 5 days. I'll come back and people won't even know I'm playing and say I've been playing under the radar. I then will say how can I be playing under the radar if I have 101 posts??

[Chubby]

Roles will be sent out tonight when I get back from pitch :)

Day one deadline will be 11pm EST Wednesday.

[Chubby]

Roles have been randomly assigned via random.org. PMs are in the process of being sent

[Alan T]

woo!

[spleen1015]

Sweetness!

[Lathum]

sweet, need more werewolf.

[ntndeacon]

Excellent! Werewolf is good for the soul. Paranoia all the way around.

[st.cronin]

My brains are not at all tasty, for the record. Please do not eat them.

As I understand the rules, the Star police chief's only power is that he knows who is who. I think there is a way we can get him to show himself, but, obviously, it's way too early for that.

Some other thoughts:

Best case for Stars is for the zombies to eat umbrella at night. Umbrella is obviously going to try to fit in with the Stars.

[Chubby]

All PMs are sent, if anyone has questions you can always ask me in PM.

Note: Abilities luck and vaccinated are not known to players.

[path12]

As I understand the rules, the Star police chief's only power is that he knows who is who. I think there is a way we can get him to show himself, but, obviously, it's way too early for that.

Why would we want him to show himself? Wouldn't that make him a target for either Umbrella or the zombies?

[st.cronin]

Why would we want him to show himself? Wouldn't that make him a target for either Umbrella or the zombies?

Yes, of course. That's why I said we wouldn't want him to reveal himself NOW. It's an end game, or near end-game, play.

[Chubby]

It is front page news that Special Investigator Ben Lewis was found dead outside S.T.A.R.S. headquarters. That he was dead was not a surprise as he had been missing for two weeks, what was the surprise was the cause of death. The body was found to have what appeared to be teeth marks in the skull and his brain was exposed!

How could this happen? Was it possible that there were zombies in our midst once again? A citywide curfew has been put in place by the Chief of Police. S.T.A.R.S. has been called into special duty once more. Can they uncover what is going on at Umbrella and make Raccoon City safe once more?

Day One has begun. Deadline is 11pm EST on wednesday.

[Alan T]

Well Stars want the zombies dead, Umbrella wants stars dead and zombies want everyone dead.

Stars members care more about killing zombies than Umbrella members, however I think that there is very little reason to not kill umbrella members too even though it doesn't necessarily push the stars closer to the winning condition, it gets rid of one of the teams that will be aiming for the stars to die.

Umbrella members benefit by having the zombies around to an extent, because the zombies help umbrella reach their goal of killing off the stars. Umbrella members just have to try to avoid getting sacked by the zombies themselves. I think Umbrella's strategy will be to go after stars alone and leave the zombies.

Zombies I think don't care necessarily who they kill to start. Obviously if one team is running lower than the other later in the game, they will try to kill off the winning team to prevent them from meeting their winning condition.

So my guess for early game strats will be:

Stars -> kill anyone not stars
Umbrella -> focus on stars alone
Zombies -> Kill anyone.

Key nights as I see for us this game will be:

Night 3 - First night the Zombies can infect someone. Target who is vaccinated will be immune to this.

Night 4 - Umbrella can kidnap someone to turn into the nemesis. They'll likely work with their team mates to identify a good target the first three nights.

Night 5 - Second night the Zombies can try to infect someone not vaccinated. (at 1/2 the success rate of previous success on night 3 if they had success)


So some key questions we have to figure out:

1) How many of each team do we think there are? earlier I said 10-6-4 but after reading more and seeing the possibilitiy of 2 converts on the zombies team (or even more maybe), and only 19 players I would think its either 10-6-3 or 11-5-3 right now.

2) Being Vaccinated seems to be something pretty important, and will be a focus of this game as we get to days 3+


I guess my biggest curiosity will be how people will come out at the beginning.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Role received, I'm good to go. :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

2) Being Vaccinated seems to be something pretty important, and will be a focus of this game as we get to days 3+
Although, nobody seems to know who is vaccinated, so it looks as though it will work as a random mechanic to interfere with zombie attempts to convert.

[st.cronin]

I think 3 zombies sounds right, maybe even 2.

[path12]

I guess my biggest curiosity will be how people will come out at the beginning.

Ambiguously. ;)

Seriously, I think you have a pretty solid analysis of the early strategies. I'm not sure about numbers. With the number of players in the game I can't imagine more than three zombies.......but I'm kind of stuck on the stars/umbrella breakdown.

[Alan T]

Yes, of course. That's why I said we wouldn't want him to reveal himself NOW. It's an end game, or near end-game, play.

Technically, I would disagree. Because of the following:




*Police Chief - You are the only member of S.T.A.R.S. that knows the identity of all your fellow members. You still have no PM privileges, you may be good at catching criminals but you suck at email. Role revealing has dire consequences for S.T.A.R.S.


Seems to me that even an end game strategy a reveal might be a bit bad for the chief.

[Alan T]

Although, nobody seems to know who is vaccinated, so it looks as though it will work as a random mechanic to interfere with zombie attempts to convert.

Unless some people start out vaccinated perhaps.

[st.cronin]

Do we know if all roles are in the game?

[Alan T]

Roles may or may not be in the game.


Nope, we don't

[path12]

Unless some people start out vaccinated perhaps.

If I'm understanding correctly it sounds like the vaccinated trait is already assigned but those players are not yet aware of it.

[st.cronin]

Technically, I would disagree. Because of the following:




Seems to me that even an end game strategy a reveal might be a bit bad for the chief.

There are ways to role reveal without role revealing. For example, the police chief could vote for a different player not on his list each day. Some other possibilities have occured to me, as well. It's a difficult mechanic, to be sure, but one I think we need to exploit.

[Tyrith]

Of course, if we give this away it also gives the bad guys a chance to drop some hints that maybe one of them is the chief, especially because the chief can't just identify himself as who he is. Thus, we need to tread lightly for a while, until we get some voting records.

[Alan T]

There are ways to role reveal without role revealing. For example, the police chief could vote for a different player not on his list each day. Some other possibilities have occured to me, as well. It's a difficult mechanic, to be sure, but one I think we need to exploit.

My thought on how the Chief should play is different than that a tad.

The Chief can't reveal, but all roles are revealed on death. Obviously the Chief is of its most use in death, but if he doesn't live long enough to get his message across then he becomes rather nullified.

The reason I asked Chubby what I did before roles were revealed is obviously I am guessing Chubby won't let him just come out and say I distrust: (Everyone except his list of good guys). So my guess is the chief wants to last as long as possible, and once he is dead it would be important to go and look and see who he did -not- vote for moreso than who he did vote for.

The chief won't know who are zombies vs umbrella, but he sure will know who his team is. That will help Stars members prevent themselves from killing off their own at some point.

[ntndeacon]

The only addition I would add to your strategy post Alan is I think that the Zombies might be better off with going after the Umbrellas early . since having the umbrellas out of the game won't hurt the Zombies where as getting rid of a lot of Stars could make it easier for the umbrellas to win.

[Alan T]

The only addition I would add to your strategy post Alan is I think that the Zombies might be better off with going after the Umbrellas early . since having the umbrellas out of the game won't hurt the Zombies where as getting rid of a lot of Stars could make it easier for the umbrellas to win.

I doubt they will intentionally try to do that. I think they want Spencer (umbrella) to kidnap someone to make the nemesis, since as I read it, the nemesis is on the zombie team.

The big question however is how will they know who is umbrella vs who is stars?

I am guessing the zombies will just go after anyone not them. They'll try to take out people similar to what normal bad guys do in games strategy wise. I think they are the ones least changed by having three factions.

[Tyrith]

In this game it seems like you just have to kill everyone that isn't on your team. Us STARS guys would optimally just kill zombies, but we have to play defense against Umbrella. Umbrella would prefer to let the zombies run around and eat away at the STARS majority but they also have to look after themselves in the long run. Although, actually, Umbrella probably can't win without zombies doing most of the work because they have to kill ALL STARS members. The wild card being, of course, what kind of "research" is going on.

And of course zombies need to kill anyone and everything that isn't on their side. ZOMBIE -- EAT FLESH

Advantage for STARS is that we have plenty of seer/witness type powers available plus a hunter. Considering the numbers in this game I have to believe STARS has all of its roles in the game. Zombies absolutely have at least one infector. Umbrella probably has all its named roles and the BG too, especially seeing that the BG isn't particularly powerful.

It's gonna be interesting, however it goes.

[Tyrith]

I doubt they will intentionally try to do that. I think they want Spencer (umbrella) to kidnap someone to make the nemesis, since as I read it, the nemesis is on the zombie team.

The big question however is how will they know who is umbrella vs who is stars?

I am guessing the zombies will just go after anyone not them. They'll try to take out people similar to what normal bad guys do in games strategy wise. I think they are the ones least changed by having three factions.

Yeah, zombies have no way of targeting any particular faction unless we feed them the information, and at that point it'll be late enough in the game they will be doing whatever they need to be doing anyway.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Umbrella needs to have all of STARS "taken care of". I wonder if there are some additional options there beyond killed and zombified?

[Tyrith]

Umbrella needs to have all of STARS "taken care of". I wonder if there are some additional options there beyond killed and zombified?

Unless it has something to do with the research I don't see any. Chubby was pretty clear there wasn't going to be secret crap beyond things specifically hidden in the rules.

[ntndeacon]

Yeah, zombies have no way of targeting any particular faction unless we feed them the information, and at that point it'll be late enough in the game they will be doing whatever they need to be doing anyway.

I agree that they won't be able choose which faction is eaten first. And The Zombies do want to keep around the kidnapper. Even though there are more Stars now than the other two( or so we think.) If the Stars members get a little low they will have to watch who they eat to keep the Umbrellas from winning.

[st.cronin]

Why would the umbrella go through with the kidnapping? I don't see an upside for them.

[Tyrith]

Why would the umbrella go through with the kidnapping? I don't see an upside for them.

More zombies = more dead STARS. There's also the "research" thing I keep coming back to; who knows what it could be, but there hast o be some reason.

[Mr. Wednesday]

It's a fairly "straight forward" game, by that I mean everything is spelled out... no roles not mentioned in the rules, no hidden qualities like "can not night kill" (unless specifically mentioned in the rules). I do this because while I enjoy games with twists in them, it generally aggrevates me when these things pop up. Any twists in this game will not mess with what you are told in the rules (and won't break the rules as well), this is why I think that even tho there's a lot of possible roles that it will be enjoyable by both vets and newer players.

I think there's a little wiggle room there...

[Fouts]

Checking in. I do not like to eat brains.

[Glengoyne]

Checking IN.

For the Record. I think you're all stinking Zombies or Rain Gear.

Stay outta my freaking HEAD!

[Chief Rum]

I am Chief Rum. That is not Police Chief Rum. Or is it? Can I even say that? I guess not. Unless I am not the chief. But I am Chief. I give up.

[Glengoyne]

...

I am guessing the zombies will just go after anyone not them. They'll try to take out people similar to what normal bad guys do in games strategy wise. I think they are the ones least changed by having three factions.

So the zombies will be the ones acting normal? I'm not sure how to capitalize on that.

[hoopsguy]

OK, a whole lot of nothing to go after in the initial posts this game. I agree with the presiding thought on the Chief's voting record being especially important but I'm not sure what the other takeaways are from the early discussion, frankly.

As with just about every Day 1, nothing becomes interesting until we start to vote. Anyone have any new ideas on the best way to carry out a Day 1? I tend to subscribe to the two candidate runoff, which may be a better option than usual this game with two factions yielding positive results for STARS. Better chance of having someone we want in the crosshairs as opposed to two random villagers/STARS.

[Alan T]

OK, a whole lot of nothing to go after in the initial posts this game. I agree with the presiding thought on the Chief's voting record being especially important but I'm not sure what the other takeaways are from the early discussion, frankly.

As with just about every Day 1, nothing becomes interesting until we start to vote. Anyone have any new ideas on the best way to carry out a Day 1? I tend to subscribe to the two candidate runoff, which may be a better option than usual this game with two factions yielding positive results for STARS. Better chance of having someone we want in the crosshairs as opposed to two random villagers/STARS.

I like the votes every day to be based around a small number of candidates as well since that is easier to track down the road than everyone spread out across 10 different people. I however am not going to trap myself on day 1 being forced to choose between two people who have some possibility of being a decent contributer during the game.

In most games there is usually one side that wants to eliminate those that do sound analysis, those that help drive -meaningful- discussion and those that are active and/or experienced. My goal at least on day 1 is likely to not do that team's work for them.

I might not go for the quietest player, or I might not go for the newest player.. However I'll likely consider all of those things when picking my day one vote. I think its a tad early just yet to be narrowing down to a few candidates to choose from right now. I'm more curious to see how people check in, and what discussion people are bringing to the table early in the game.

I don't know that there is a ton that we can discuss on day 1, however I don't really feel like sitting in day 5 or 6 with a bunch of people who won't be trying to work together to figure out voting records or discuss behavior patterns :)

[LoneStarGirl]

Okay, I got my role. Nothing special to see here. Just checking in and saying hi

[KWhit]

Hello, all. KWhit checking in.

I think it's such a crapshoot on day one that I will likely be voting for someone quiet. I feel that it's a mistake to lose a someone this early who is actually contributing to the discussion. It's tough to get a read on the quiet ones later in the game, so it hurts our chances of victory if we keep them around.

[Chief Rum]

Heading off to work for the day, but I will be back before deadline. Can't what to read the usual nonsensical reasonings for voting for people on Day 1 (to which I will then add my own).

[Alan T]

So in my pre-game reading of the rules, there were some other interesting dynamics in this game to make it a bit different than typical games.

Normally there is 1 bodyguard, 1 seer and perhaps some type of witness role in a game. This game due to three factions, there are quite many more walking around.

Stars have 2 roles that can learn faction information and 1 who can act as a witness type role from what I can tell. Umbrella has 1 that can learn information and both have 1 bodyguard each.

So where in normal games it is a percentage play to figure out the odds of player X being guarded, this game that chance is increased. I wouldn't be suprised to see a slightly different night kill game plan this game due to the extra bodyguards out there.

[Lathum]

Checking in ( I got blasted for not doing this last game). Nothingh special going on. I agree day one is a crapshoot. Since I will be gone all day then I am going to see Flogging Molly tonight!!! I have to put an early vote in.

LYNCH HOOPSGUY

thats for wanting to gun me dowm last game when I was your teammate. :)

[spleen1015]

Hello, boys and girls. I'm here! Spleenie is 3-0 in WW. Let's keep that tradition alive!

[Alan T]

Hello, boys and girls. I'm here! Spleenie is 3-0 in WW. Let's keep that tradition alive!

I am ok with that as long as you are on my team.

[hoopsguy]

Thanks for that, Lathum. I spare you, allowing you to move on to ruling that cowpoke town and you use that as a reason to vote for me. Makes perfect sense.

Alan, while I think that getting our votes down to two candidates makes sense, I have no good thoughts on who those two candidates should be. I do not have any special insight on my team members.

[Alan T]

Thanks for that, Lathum. I spare you, allowing you to move on to ruling that cowpoke town and you use that as a reason to vote for me. Makes perfect sense.

Alan, while I think that getting our votes down to two candidates makes sense, I have no good thoughts on who those two candidates should be. I do not have any special insight on my team members.

It seems like Lathum is nominating you to be one of the candidates. I take it you don't agree with that :)

[spleen1015]

It seems like Lathum is nominating you to be one of the candidates. I take it you don't agree with that :)

Works for me. Hoops is candidate #1. :D

[hoopsguy]

If that is how people want today to play out, so be it. However, I'm with STARS and there are going to be two factions that will know I'm not part of their faction and will be more than willing to cast votes towards me. So including a member of STARS in the runoff is already less than ideal. Statistically, I don't think it is likely for us to get two members of STARS in a runoff, but if you choose to make me candidate #1 then it becomes a lot more likely.

OK, here comes the math, working with Alan's guesswork for faction numbers.
19 players, 11-5-3 ratio to start
Chance of having two STARS members in initial two-man runoff = 11/19 * 10/18 = 32%
Chance of having a second STARS member in initial two-man runoff after having first candidate (me) as member of STARS = 10/18 = 56%

So we are giving away a 24% edge by making a bad first decision and giving the other factions a chance to vote out a player who is generally pretty good at analysis as a good guy. Obviously I don't like this one bit.

There is a player who will not be voting for me who knows that I am speaking the truth about being on STARS.

[Abe Sargent]

Heya and good morning all! Still trying to muddle through the rules and what. Will post more later when I have more to say.

-Anxiety

[Fouts]

I won't be in the thread until later this afternoon. I have a feeling hoops is playing it straight this game. (I'll vote for the guy who killed me last, as I owe him one.)

vote st. cronin

[BrianD]

I'm already a bit confused as to the rules and the factions, so I am going to spend a bit more time reading over them. I'll be over on page 1 for a while if anyone needs me.

[SnDvls]

another player checking in

this game is alredy confusing with 3 factions.

Alan - I'm rereading some of your analysis so I have it straight and based on my gut the last two games I feel you've already started to earn some trust. I don't think a non-Stars player would be this helpful this early.

[hoopsguy]

I realized that there is another implication in my math earlier that I think is pretty important here. If we start with 11 members of STARS then the likelihood of having at least opponent in the mix, with a randomly selected starting two, is 68%. If we start with 10 members of STARS that number moves to 74%.

With that in mind, I am vehemently opposed to being the first member of the runoff - we give away way too much edge on the first day. Normally we are playing with less than a 40% chance of getting a "wolf" in a 19 person game with two factions, assuming 4 wolves.

Obviously anyone else can make the same argument and then cite my statistics as their rationale, but I'll leave that for others to judge.

Consider my suspicion of Lathum, Alan T, and Spleen dialed up a little above the norm for the initial vote and the whimsical suggestions that I would make a fine candidate.

[spleen1015]

I realized that there is another implication in my math earlier that I think is pretty important here. If we start with 11 members of STARS then the likelihood of having at least opponent in the mix, with a randomly selected starting two, is 68%. If we start with 10 members of STARS that number moves to 74%.

With that in mind, I am vehemently opposed to being the first member of the runoff - we give away way too much edge on the first day. Normally we are playing with less than a 40% chance of getting a "wolf" in a 19 person game with two factions, assuming 4 wolves.

Obviously anyone else can make the same argument and then cite my statistics as their rationale, but I'll leave that for others to judge.

Consider my suspicion of Lathum, Alan T, and Spleen dialed up a little above the norm for the initial vote and the whimsical suggestions that I would make a fine candidate.


My suggestion was all in good fun. I don't think I will be voting for you on Day 1. So, don't sweat it, homie.

[st.cronin]

I am going to assume that any player who casts an early vote is either zombie, umbrella, or police chief. Regular stars players will likely be looking for clues that somebody is the police chief. That said ...

vote hoopsguy

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls - have you ever played with Alan when he has been a wolf? I would expect nothing but helpfulness from him early in the game as a wolf. There should be plenty of others here who can back me up on that assertion.

Doesn't make him a "wolf" in any way, shape, or form. But I would be pretty cautious about assigning him trust based on helpfulness on Day 1.

[spleen1015]

I am going to assume that any player who casts an early vote is either zombie, umbrella, or police chief. Regular stars players will likely be looking for clues that somebody is the police chief. That said ...

vote hoopsguy

So, using your analysis, you're a zombie, umbrella or the police chief.

[hoopsguy]

I am going to assume that any player who casts an early vote is either zombie, umbrella, or police chief. Regular stars players will likely be looking for clues that somebody is the police chief. That said ...

vote hoopsguy

You cast the 2nd vote.
The Police Chief knows that I'm with STARS.

So where does that leave you?

[hoopsguy]

Dola - 3rd vote, as Fouts voted for Cronin.

[spleen1015]

You cast the 2nd vote.
The Police Chief knows that I'm with STARS.

So where does that leave you?

My thoughts exactly.

[st.cronin]

You cast the 2nd vote.
The Police Chief knows that I'm with STARS.

So where does that leave you?


This post is rhetoric, not analysis. Play along with my theory - either Lathum is the police chief, or he is not Stars. If he is the police chief, then you are either umbrella or zombie. If he is not Stars, then you could still be either umbrella or zombie (since I don't think they know which is which), but if you turn out to be stars, then Lathum gets lynched tomorrow.

Of course, it's also possible that Lathum is just regular stars and wanted to cast a vote. But that leaves me with making a random day 1 vote based on nothing.

[SnDvls]

SnDvls - have you ever played with Alan when he has been a wolf? I would expect nothing but helpfulness from him early in the game as a wolf. There should be plenty of others here who can back me up on that assertion.

Doesn't make him a "wolf" in any way, shape, or form. But I would be pretty cautious about assigning him trust based on helpfulness on Day 1.


I have seen him do it before yes, but here it just feels different to me. Anyhow all I said was he started to earn some trust, not in a COT just yet.

[Tyrith]

I think we might be again reading too much into some of this. However, Lathum's quick vote for hoops does concern me. I would figure that if we were all on the same side we'd want to keep the best players alive to help us, and I don't think there is any doubt that hoops is quite good at this game. Multiple people have also talked about voting for quiet people on day 1, and here we are again, with a hoops/cronin showdown looming over our heads. Maybe we should slow down here for a minute, go over this again before we start maiming people...but I have to admit that cronin's "rhetoric" post makes some sense to me.

Of course, his day 1 thinking last game probably made some sense too, and it was dead wrong.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I think you are assuming a more aggressive game by the Police Chief than I would expect from the role. They are likely going to make pro-STARS votes every time out. They have information that they cannot reveal, but obviously helps the team out if we can figure out their identity. But their value increases as the game progresses and the impact of a wrong decision is magnified. So I would expect them to try and blend in early, rather than drawing attention to themselves.

You are suggesting that Lathum - by all accounts a pretty solid player who thinks through scenarios - would come after me in this role with the first vote in an attempt to identify himself to his constituents immediately. I have the luxury of knowing this is not the case, but I think anyone who thinks through the role and the player would conclude that Lathum is NOT the Police Chief.

[Tyrith]

Actually, screw all that. Lathum said he was gonna be gone all day. This is too overt to be a wolf move like that. Now I have other kinds of alarms going off. It's too early for all this.

[Alan T]

This post is rhetoric, not analysis. Play along with my theory - either Lathum is the police chief, or he is not Stars. If he is the police chief, then you are either umbrella or zombie. If he is not Stars, then you could still be either umbrella or zombie (since I don't think they know which is which), but if you turn out to be stars, then Lathum gets lynched tomorrow.

Of course, it's also possible that Lathum is just regular stars and wanted to cast a vote. But that leaves me with making a random day 1 vote based on nothing.

Or Lathum is honestly not going to be here most of the day and had to put his vote out early and you are using that to try to have an excuse to vote for hoops. Considering you have this breakdown on what Lathum is or isn't and that led you to voting for Hoops as a second vote on him rather than voting for Lathum whom no one had voted for yet..

[hoopsguy]

Let me clarify - I have the luxury of knowing Lathum is not the Police Chief by virtue of his vote for me.

Anyone who does not know that I'm with STARS, but takes the time to consider the role and how Lathum might play it, should pretty quickly conclude that Lathum is NOT the Police Chief.

[Alan T]

I realized that there is another implication in my math earlier that I think is pretty important here. If we start with 11 members of STARS then the likelihood of having at least opponent in the mix, with a randomly selected starting two, is 68%. If we start with 10 members of STARS that number moves to 74%.

With that in mind, I am vehemently opposed to being the first member of the runoff - we give away way too much edge on the first day. Normally we are playing with less than a 40% chance of getting a "wolf" in a 19 person game with two factions, assuming 4 wolves.

Obviously anyone else can make the same argument and then cite my statistics as their rationale, but I'll leave that for others to judge.

Consider my suspicion of Lathum, Alan T, and Spleen dialed up a little above the norm for the initial vote and the whimsical suggestions that I would make a fine candidate.

To be honest, I am tweaking you a bit. Its pretty easy to suggest there be a run off of two candidates on day 1, but then not have any suggestions on who those candidates should be. Then when your neck starts getting closer to the noose, that two candidate run off isnt as appealing to you. :)

I already have stated that I like narrowing down the selection to a few candidates to help us judge voting history from (whether 2 or 3 candidates). I also have stated what type of player I would like to lynch today, and you aren't in that description. You should know from my previous posts that if I voted for you today it would go against everything I already stated today. :)

[hoopsguy]

In terms of Lathum, after having played with him as a wolf last game, I would suggest that putting votes on him is an effective way to encourage participation even when he is "going to be away all day". Yes, he is out for stretches of the day but my perception was that he definitely was willing to give the villagers time to trip over themselves.

I have no idea if Lathum is a good guy or a bad guy here. I just know he is not the Police Chief based on his vote. And that voting for me on Day 1, based on specious logic (is there any other kind on Day 1? fair point) that I considered killing him last game is foolish.

[spleen1015]

I'm going to believe in hoops this game because of odds. :) He was a wolf last game and that game was pretty big. This game is also pretty big, so him being a wolf is pretty slim.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, I think you are assuming a more aggressive game by the Police Chief than I would expect from the role. They are likely going to make pro-STARS votes every time out. They have information that they cannot reveal, but obviously helps the team out if we can figure out their identity. But their value increases as the game progresses and the impact of a wrong decision is magnified. So I would expect them to try and blend in early, rather than drawing attention to themselves.

You are suggesting that Lathum - by all accounts a pretty solid player who thinks through scenarios - would come after me in this role with the first vote in an attempt to identify himself to his constituents immediately. I have the luxury of knowing this is not the case, but I think anyone who thinks through the role and the player would conclude that Lathum is NOT the Police Chief.


I agree that there is a good possibility that Lathum is NOT the police chief. I think there is much less probability that he is regular Stars.

My own point of view is that as regular stars, the last thing I want to do is cast a random vote on somebody. The only way for the day 1 vote to make sense is to lay back and let the umbrella/zombie/chief pick suspects - then day 2, we go through that info to see what we see.

[Tyrith]

Yeah, referring to what hoops was saying, I don't think the chief would be so brazen as to start pulling stunts like that immediately. He's going to be too valuable to our long term plans to take the chance it massively backfires. Furthermore, I would like to think that the people in these games are honest about their real lives and about when they aren't going to be around -- gaming to that degree seems over our unwritten line, personally. So I'm inclined to think the vote doesn't mean anything.

[Alan T]

In terms of Lathum, after having played with him as a wolf last game, I would suggest that putting votes on him is an effective way to encourage participation even when he is "going to be away all day". Yes, he is out for stretches of the day but my perception was that he definitely was willing to give the villagers time to trip over themselves.

I have no idea if Lathum is a good guy or a bad guy here. I just know he is not the Police Chief based on his vote. And that voting for me on Day 1, based on specious logic (is there any other kind on Day 1? fair point) that I considered killing him last game is foolish.

Lathum never seems to be a heavy posted in early games from what I know of him. I agree that putting him on the block usually increases his participation, but he usually sits back and lets things develop early on.

This alone doesn't make him good or bad this game, but lathum really isn't the type of day 1 vote I'm looking for today. I have in my mind who I think I would probably vote for, but I am waiting for them to check in this game first before I decide for sure today. (Bulletsponge)

[BrianD]

Switching topics a bit, is there any reason that Umbrella would want to create Nemesis? It would "take care of" a STARS member, but it would also create another zombie which might eat them. I'm not sure I get the point of this...

[Alan T]

I'm going to believe in hoops this game because of odds. :) He was a wolf last game and that game was pretty big. This game is also pretty big, so him being a wolf is pretty slim.

I disagree somewhat with this reasoning. This game I feel the odds of him being someone "bad" is bigger than in most games, despite the number of players.

In this game I wouldn't be suprised to see 40% of the players on some "bad" faction (either zombies or Umbrella) so I think its actually quite a decent possibility for any player in this game to be bad. I don't buy the whole arguement that a larger game means automatically less chance he is bad.

[Tyrith]

I agree that there is a good possibility that Lathum is NOT the police chief. I think there is much less probability that he is regular Stars.

My own point of view is that as regular stars, the last thing I want to do is cast a random vote on somebody. The only way for the day 1 vote to make sense is to lay back and let the umbrella/zombie/chief pick suspects - then day 2, we go through that info to see what we see.

The problem with this is that it only works if other people are going to think along your same lines. A lot of day ones involve people just throwing things out there, and we can rest assured they aren't all going to be the police chief or a non-good guy. Are we just going to start killing people for independent thoughts on day one?

[Alan T]

Switching topics a bit, is there any reason that Umbrella would want to create Nemesis? It would "take care of" a STARS member, but it would also create another zombie which might eat them. I'm not sure I get the point of this...

Main reasons I can think of is to nullify a stars bodyguard or perhaps there is some unknown information about how nemesis works that would make it appealing to them.

I agree that I don't necessarily assume that the umbrella team would be happy about there being more zombies.

[Tyrith]

Switching topics a bit, is there any reason that Umbrella would want to create Nemesis? It would "take care of" a STARS member, but it would also create another zombie which might eat them. I'm not sure I get the point of this...

Random thought: They would know who Nemesis is and could try to get him....taken care of if he started doing goofy crap.

[st.cronin]

Or Lathum is honestly not going to be here most of the day and had to put his vote out early and you are using that to try to have an excuse to vote for hoops. Considering you have this breakdown on what Lathum is or isn't and that led you to voting for Hoops as a second vote on him rather than voting for Lathum whom no one had voted for yet..

If you really think so, then vote for me. I know for sure the police chief won't vote for me.

I don't have a breakdown, just a theory - one I hinted at last night. Normally I like to get a vote out there right away, but this game I waited to see who moved first.

[Tyrith]

I'm going to believe in hoops this game because of odds. :) He was a wolf last game and that game was pretty big. This game is also pretty big, so him being a wolf is pretty slim.

Random.org cares not about who was what last game :)

[Alan T]

Yeah, referring to what hoops was saying, I don't think the chief would be so brazen as to start pulling stunts like that immediately. He's going to be too valuable to our long term plans to take the chance it massively backfires. Furthermore, I would like to think that the people in these games are honest about their real lives and about when they aren't going to be around -- gaming to that degree seems over our unwritten line, personally. So I'm inclined to think the vote doesn't mean anything.

I pretty much already said how I feel the chief likely would be most benefitial to work. You and Hoops can go back and read that, but what I said basically agrees that the chief's biggest usage probably comes from his death as long as he can live several days. The chief likely is probably trying to -not- draw attention to himself.

I think alot of Cronin's points this morning have been forced and using faulty logic to get from point A to point B. I'm not quite sure what to make of that, but I think it would be rather hasty to jump on him to vote day 1 for just trying to come up with some thoughts. At least he is contributing, and good or bad it gives us things to look back on and find later if he is contradicting himself or not.

[Glengoyne]

Allright. I'm finding it hard to get much out of this other than a suspicion that Sndvls and Alan might be on the same side. Which means they know about each other, so they can't be STARS. Or since it would be pretty silly for bad guys align themselves this early..so that means that at least one of them is probably allright.

Just thinking outloud, proving that I've learned nothing from my experiences in this game to date.

I'll be checking in from time to time throughout the day, as this is shaping up as a rough day. Perhaps I'll host a WW game someday. The theme would be Sarbanes Oxley "Some of you are clearly out of compliance!"

[st.cronin]

The problem with this is that it only works if other people are going to think along your same lines. A lot of day ones involve people just throwing things out there, and we can rest assured they aren't all going to be the police chief or a non-good guy. Are we just going to start killing people for independent thoughts on day one?

I agree that I could be completely wrong. I'm just saying that as I thought about my role (regular stars) and the rules of the game, I realized that there was no way I was going to vote first. If any other stars had a similiar thought, I'd like to hear it.

[Alan T]

If you really think so, then vote for me. I know for sure the police chief won't vote for me.

I don't have a breakdown, just a theory - one I hinted at last night. Normally I like to get a vote out there right away, but this game I waited to see who moved first.

I already stated that I doubt i would vote for you unless some compelling reason comes forth. Disagreeing with your reasoning on day 1 isnt necessarily a compelling reason to me.

I just disagree with you is all, and still think you are using faulty logic. Hoops (who you voted for) did not move first, Lathum did. yet you used that opportunity as an excuse to pile onto hoops and push him closer to being a day 1 run off candidate rather than put a vote on an original person whom has no votes.

[Alan T]

Allright. I'm finding it hard to get much out of this other than a suspicion that Sndvls and Alan might be on the same side. Which means they know about each other, so they can't be STARS. Or since it would be pretty silly for bad guys align themselves this early..so that means that at least one of them is probably allright.

Just thinking outloud, proving that I've learned nothing from my experiences in this game to date.

I'll be checking in from time to time throughout the day, as this is shaping up as a rough day. Perhaps I'll host a WW game someday. The theme would be Sarbanes Oxley "Some of you are clearly out of compliance!"

I dunno, my usual assumption when someone comes out and posts what Sndvls does is that Sndvls is -NOT- on my team and is just trying to buddy up with me to make me not look at him closer. If they think Im a good guy, then they must be a good guy too right???

Doesn't always happen like that in Werewolf. Of course I pretty much am a very suspicious person in these games and have a very hard time ever trusting anyone. For me its always a case of what have you done for me lately.

[Tyrith]

Cronin, I'm inclined to believe you're just pushing some well-intentioned by bad ideas. For now. As last game showed, things like that do tend to get people killed on day 1, so it makes me think you aren't a bad guy. I'm with alan's voting idea for now.

[st.cronin]

I pretty much already said how I feel the chief likely would be most benefitial to work. You and Hoops can go back and read that, but what I said basically agrees that the chief's biggest usage probably comes from his death as long as he can live several days. The chief likely is probably trying to -not- draw attention to himself.

I think alot of Cronin's points this morning have been forced and using faulty logic to get from point A to point B. I'm not quite sure what to make of that, but I think it would be rather hasty to jump on him to vote day 1 for just trying to come up with some thoughts. At least he is contributing, and good or bad it gives us things to look back on and find later if he is contradicting himself or not.

Where were you in Lathum's game, where Blade got the bandwagon on me for "coming up with some thoughts?"

:D

I'm open to whatever other ideas people have, but I would like to hear what people thought when they found out they were regular Stars.

[Glengoyne]

I'm going to believe in hoops this game because of odds. :) He was a wolf last game and that game was pretty big. This game is also pretty big, so him being a wolf is pretty slim.

With two camps of wolves, or at least a camp of wolves and a camp of zombie sympathisers, I don't think the odds necessarilly bear that out.

[Tyrith]

Where were you in Lathum's game, where Blade got the bandwagon on me for "coming up with some thoughts?"

:D

I'm open to whatever other ideas people have, but I would like to hear what people thought when they found out they were regular Stars.

Hey, you started a voting trip on me just for trying to get something done day one :P

[st.cronin]

dola

I'm open to voting for Lathum, as well.

[Alan T]

Where were you in Lathum's game, where Blade got the bandwagon on me for "coming up with some thoughts?"

:D

I'm open to whatever other ideas people have, but I would like to hear what people thought when they found out they were regular Stars.

Well All I can say is I have been there before. I very rarely am a night kill by bad guys because usually the good guys find some reason to want to lynch me in the first few days. I talk alot in WW games, throw out alot of ideas (some of them better than others) and I want to encourage others to contribute with meaningful conversation.

If you are on my team or not, I do not know. You are however contributing to this discussion which for me is enough to want me to allow you a pass on day 1 until we have more information.

[st.cronin]

Hey, you started a voting trip on me just for trying to get something done day one :P

Yes, and then I changed my vote, and backed you to the bitter end. If only others had listened to me.:(

[Alan T]

With two camps of wolves, or at least a camp of wolves and a camp of zombie sympathisers, I don't think the odds necessarilly bear that out.

You are either behind about 15 posts or just repeating what I said! :)

Oh and if you ever run a game based on Sarbanes Oxley, I'll vote to lynch you every day regardless if Im allowed to or not.

[Alan T]

dola

I'm open to voting for Lathum, as well.

I would probably vote for you before I voted for Lathum. Right now on Day 1 however I would rather avoid voting for you, Lathum or Hoops.

[st.cronin]

I'll be back later, in time to change my vote if necessary. I'm curious to see how this plays out.

[Tyrith]

All hail the SEC!

[Tyrith]

All hail the SEC!

[Tyrith]

Dola, bastard message board.

[hoopsguy]

I agree with everyone who has said that being good/bad in a previous game has no bearing upon the current one.

If I was going to cast a vote for someone at this point it would be Lathum 1st, then Cronin 2nd. Both of those people have cast votes on me so I know that they are not the Police Chief. If you take that role away and add it to the Umbrella/Zombies I would expect that I have a 50% chance of hitting a bad guy using this as my only voting criteria.

[BrianD]

I'm open to whatever other ideas people have, but I would like to hear what people thought when they found out they were regular Stars.

I sometimes think you give people too much credit for planning before the game starts. :)

[hoopsguy]

Again, I posted something that isn't quite a complete thought.

If we go back to the 11-5-3 ratio then random selection indicated 8/19 chance of hitting a bad guy. No one will vote for themselves, but members of stars have an 8/18 chance of hitting a bad guy. Now if you know someone is not the Police Chief, your odds have improved to 8/17. That is what I meant above with the 50% chance of getting a good vote in based on removing the Police Chief.

[Alan T]

I agree with everyone who has said that being good/bad in a previous game has no bearing upon the current one.

If I was going to cast a vote for someone at this point it would be Lathum 1st, then Cronin 2nd. Both of those people have cast votes on me so I know that they are not the Police Chief. If you take that role away and add it to the Umbrella/Zombies I would expect that I have a 50% chance of hitting a bad guy using this as my only voting criteria.



If you are being truthful and are Stars, then lathum would not be the chief
If Lathum is not the chief and we assume there are 10-11 Stars players, it means That was 9-10% of the possible Stars roles. If a normal player has a 53-58% chance of being a stars, and everything up to this point about Lathum is true, it would still give him a 47-53% chance of being stars.

Now that sounds like a pretty decent reason for -you- to vote them if you so choose, but then the remainder of us have to take alot on faith to join in on that 5-6% voting advantage. I am not entirely sure that I want to condemn a contributing player on day 1 based on the faith of one person who has a ~55% chance of being good's statement that player B has a 53% chance of being bad.

I think there are just waaay too many ifs in your statement to jump for on day 1. Now this type of data is what we want to keep track of over the course of 2-3 days and it becomes something meaningful.

[path12]

Are we just going to start killing people for independent thoughts on day one?

Start? That's kind of the norm lately, unfortunately. Seems to me that most day one showdowns are usually just due to reading too much into initial thoughts, and are usually good/good.

That said, with three teams I think we actually have a better chance than normal of getting a bad guy in a runoff today.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Actually, screw all that. Lathum said he was gonna be gone all day. This is too overt to be a wolf move like that. Now I have other kinds of alarms going off. It's too early for all this.
It's day 1, usually a misunderstanding leads to a bandwagon onto a good guy. :-/

[Tyrith]

Start? That's kind of the norm lately, unfortunately. Seems to me that most day one showdowns are usually just due to reading too much into initial thoughts, and are usually good/good.

That said, with three teams I think we actually have a better chance than normal of getting a bad guy in a runoff today.

Yeah. I'm suspicious of cronin right now, but I'm going to give him a chance to earn some trust back. If we're going to force people to put their opinions out there we have to start by letting the people that do speak live unless we have a really good reason to kill them.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm going to believe in hoops this game because of odds. :) He was a wolf last game and that game was pretty big. This game is also pretty big, so him being a wolf is pretty slim.
Statistical fallacy... roles in the games are independent events. :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

My own point of view is that as regular stars, the last thing I want to do is cast a random vote on somebody. The only way for the day 1 vote to make sense is to lay back and let the umbrella/zombie/chief pick suspects - then day 2, we go through that info to see what we see.

As regular STARS, the only one out of that lot who is going to pick someone worth voting for is the chief. Umbrella will be figuring that anyone who isn't them works well, zombies the same, meaning that aside from the chief, the baddies are most likely to pick STARS. It's to the STARS favor to drive the voting so that there's a better chance of picking up a zombie or Umbrella.

[hoopsguy]

Gang is all here - but I'm out for about 90 minutes as work calls.

I would encourage people to find two other candidates to run off, with me not being in the mix. If that is not how it works, then I'll have a more exciting Day 1 than I wanted to have and hopefully some good information will emerge for later in the game.

[Alan T]

I think all this pushing for some of the more contributing, experienced players is a bit baffling to me. I already stated the profile of the type of player I likely will vote for, and gave the name of who it likely will be.

As of right now, only two people haven't checked in since roles. Saldana and Bulletsponge. I think pretty highly of Saldana's analysis usually when I have been on the wrong team before, so in hoping he is on my team this time, I wont be voting for him on day 1 at least (with the hopes he's just busy today and will be here more in the future to help).

Just to get things going in what i feel is a better direction, I'll go with what my thought has been all along.

Vote Bulletsponge

Now with that said, I think the advantages to this vote is:

- Bullet is one of the newer players in the game
- Bullet usually is fun to play with but I think I want someone who later in the game is more likely to be digging through posts trying to trap someone on the other team.

The disadvantages to this vote:

-Typically an inactive player seems to have better odds of being good (most often but not always, players who are with cool roles or wolves will be active from the start)
- There is still a ~53% chance that he is good

Its a day 1 vote, but this vote is anything but random. There are my reasons for the vote, and they aren't just because so and so looked at me wrong in WW game 14!

[Alan T]

I think all this pushing for some of the more contributing, experienced players is a bit baffling to me. I already stated the profile of the type of player I likely will vote for, and gave the name of who it likely will be.

As of right now, only two people haven't checked in since roles. Saldana and Bulletsponge. I think pretty highly of Saldana's analysis usually when I have been on the wrong team before, so in hoping he is on my team this time, I wont be voting for him on day 1 at least (with the hopes he's just busy today and will be here more in the future to help).

Just to get things going in what i feel is a better direction, I'll go with what my thought has been all along.

Vote Bulletsponge

Now with that said, I think the advantages to this vote is:

- Bullet is one of the newer players in the game
- Bullet usually is fun to play with but I think I want someone who later in the game is more likely to be digging through posts trying to trap someone on the other team.

The disadvantages to this vote:

-Typically an inactive player seems to have better odds of being good (most often but not always, players who are with cool roles or wolves will be active from the start)
- There is still a ~53% chance that he is good

Its a day 1 vote, but this vote is anything but random. There are my reasons for the vote, and they aren't just because so and so looked at me wrong in WW game 14!

Since I stink at the internet, let me try that again.
Vote Bulletsponge

[BrianD]

It is interesting how the most active players tend to be the most in danger at the beginning of a game. Normally this comes down to A votes for B because A doesn't know what else to do, B votes for A because B is good so A must be bad...bandwagons commence. One of these games I hope to have a bad role so I can enjoy the chaos rather than be frustrated by it.

[Alan T]

It is interesting how the most active players tend to be the most in danger at the beginning of a game. Normally this comes down to A votes for B because A doesn't know what else to do, B votes for A because B is good so A must be bad...bandwagons commence. One of these games I hope to have a bad role so I can enjoy the chaos rather than be frustrated by it.

People only fall into the chaos if they allow themselves to. Like I responded to Hoops, him voting for Lathum might make sense for him mathematically at this point, however for the remainder of the players its a below 50% play and thus no better than your start off odds of voting for anyone. So anyone jumping on the well player B voted for Player A and I believe him more are just fooling themselves.

Only 3 ways to really handle today's vote:

1) Pure randomness - doesn't really help anything at all other than making sure you have a vote out there

2) Trying to achieve some goal for the day (obviously Zombies or umbrella people will vote for people not in their group, but everyone in all three groups can vote for people who they don't think they would help their cause on day 5-6-7)

3) Revenge reasoning for being voted for earlier in the day. Hoops gave a good example of why it might be logical for -him- alone to do that, but I am not sure what it accomplishes for the entire team.

[path12]

Random thought -- with three factions, two of whom know all their members, it will be as interesting to see who people don't mention as much as who they do....

[ntndeacon]

Since we seem to get a villager more often than not in these games I am gonna just pop in a vote on someone at random. I have no real reason to vote for them, but I am afraid we are in a good vs good vote off. So I
Vote Fouts

[BrianD]

People only fall into the chaos if they allow themselves to.

Doesn't this cover about 90% of werewolf history? :)

[Alan T]

Since we seem to get a villager more often than not in these games I am gonna just pop in a vote on someone at random. I have no real reason to vote for them, but I am afraid we are in a good vs good vote off. So I
Vote Fouts

Out of curiosity who are we in a good vs good vote off between?

[Alan T]

Well.. guess I was too slow to ask ntndeacon that.

That vote doesn't make much sense to me either. Well not as much the vote as the comment with it. I currently have the vote as:

(2) Hoopsguy - Lathum (112), st.cronin (125)
(1) St.cronin - Fouts (120)
(1) Bulletsponge - Alan (180)
(1) Fouts - Ntndeacon (184)

So I'm pretty puzzled at who the good vs good run off ntndeacon referenced is between right now. :)

[KWhit]

It is interesting how the most active players tend to be the most in danger at the beginning of a game. Normally this comes down to A votes for B because A doesn't know what else to do, B votes for A because B is good so A must be bad...bandwagons commence. One of these games I hope to have a bad role so I can enjoy the chaos rather than be frustrated by it.

This is very possibly a totally innocent comment, but I always find it suspicious when someone highlights their innocence in this way. Probably means nothing, but I want to get a vote out there and right now I have nothing else to go on. I will likely move this vote if something interesting presents itself.

A couple of other thoughts:

I don't think Lathum is the Police Chief. That seems like too overt a play to make on day one. I also think it's kind of unlikely that he is a bad guy as they usually don't want to make the first vote.
I don't believe we should vote for Hoops without a decent reason. He's always active in these games and provides good analysis.

[Alan T]

This is very possibly a totally innocent comment, but I always find it suspicious when someone highlights their innocence in this way. Probably means nothing, but I want to get a vote out there and right now I have nothing else to go on. I will likely move this vote if something interesting presents itself.

A couple of other thoughts:

I don't think Lathum is the Police Chief. That seems like too overt a play to make on day one. I also think it's kind of unlikely that he is a bad guy as they usually don't want to make the first vote.
I don't believe we should vote for Hoops without a decent reason. He's always active in these games and provides good analysis.

Kwhit, if you were meaning to vote, I think you missed it. (I can't talk because I flubbed my vote post earlier myself)

[KWhit]

Kwhit, if you were meaning to vote, I think you missed it. (I can't talk because I flubbed my vote post earlier myself)

Hehe. Oops.

Yeah, so umm...

Vote BrianD.

[LoneStarGirl]

After reading some of your early analysis I dont believe I am smart enough for this game. Also, it seems we have there experts here that are going to blow some of us newer folk away. I am going back to the first page to reread the rules, but right now I have no grasp of who to vote for besides NOT voting for Lathum, hoops, alant or st. cronin

[Alan T]

After reading some of your early analysis I dont believe I am smart enough for this game. Also, it seems we have there experts here that are going to blow some of us newer folk away. I am going back to the first page to reread the rules, but right now I have no grasp of who to vote for besides NOT voting for Lathum, hoops, alant or st. cronin

I've been posting alot today, but I'm just trying to see if an experiment works this game. Don't take my constant posting to mean that I know anything more than anyone else. Your gut instinct might be just as right as mine, or even more right than mine. All I've been trying to push for today is for people to not fall into the normal day 1 trap of a lynch between two vocal good guys.

Instead, we might end up in a different day 1 lynch of a different good guy! :)

But seriously, I'm just calling people out on thoughts that are posted that don't seem to make full sense to me and just trying to admittedly push the vote away from some of the more solid players on day 1. (or even possibly day 2)

[LoneStarGirl]

Okay, right now I am having trouble understanding Nemesis and Infector. Are those two people that are already out there? OR are they created later? And the zombies get 100% chance if they try to kill somebody together. What is the sense of not trying to kill people together then? What are the advantages for one zombie going at it alone?

[LoneStarGirl]

Okay, so i am reading down and I see that Ozwell can change you into a Nemesis.... my fault.

So as a member of STARS I am pretty much again the zombies and Umbrella?

[Tyrith]

Yeah, I'm with alan, my main thing right now is making sure we don't kill people that are putting out ideas just because we might disagree with some of their conjecture. Kill them after they do it repeatedly.

The infector exists, but one of the Umbrella guys has to kidnap someone to turn them into Nemesis.

Just thought of another reason for why umbrella should create nemesis, related to "taking care of all of STARS" - by kidnapping a STARS member and turning them into nemesis they are getting a night kill against their goal of having to get rid of all the STARS members.

[hoopsguy]

LSG, you have been plenty smart in the games I have watched you play. Maybe not as wordy as some of us, but your instincts on who to vote for have been very good. Even in the Saw game, the instincts were good but you just were not able to sell the idea enough at the end.

[Alan T]

Okay, right now I am having trouble understanding Nemesis and Infector. Are those two people that are already out there? OR are they created later? And the zombies get 100% chance if they try to kill somebody together. What is the sense of not trying to kill people together then? What are the advantages for one zombie going at it alone?

From the rules, the nemesis is not currently in the game. He is brought to the game by Ozwell Spencer (Umbrella) kidnapping a player and turning him into the nemesis. It's been debated so far whether or not umbrella would even want the nemesis around at all.

The infector is a type of zombie who in addition to participating in the night kills also has the ability to infect someone starting night 3. If the player is vaccinated however, the infector loses all ability to do future infection. Infecting someone is this game's version of a conversion.

There are a couple of reasons that come to my mind on why the zombies would or wouldn't do the 2 zombie kills for 100% chance:

1) Bigger chance of being discovered
2) Bodyguard block has bigger chance of preventing them from any action that night

On the positive side for them, it gives them a sure kill by teaming up. I've already done the math in my head to figure out what likely is the better percentage for them, but i don't feel like sharing that in this thread.

[hoopsguy]

I'm also very amused by Tyrith having 14 posts under his name, when he will probably have 2x that many on Day 1 of this game :)

OK, back to trying to figure out today.

[Alan T]

Okay, so i am reading down and I see that Ozwell can change you into a Nemesis.... my fault.

So as a member of STARS I am pretty much again the zombies and Umbrella?

Basically thats right. Stars win if all the zombies are killed (regardless if umbrella is around or not). However its probably in the Stars interest to just kill umbrella members too as they are actively trying to kill the Stars.

Winning conditions are:

Zombies kill everyone (to get to a 1:1 ratio of zombies vs everyone else)
Umbrella kill stars
Stars kill zombies.

[Tyrith]

I'm also very amused by Tyrith having 14 posts under his name, when he will probably have 2x that many on Day 1 of this game :)

OK, back to trying to figure out today.

I already have 20 posts in the thread...yeah, moving to our own board kicking my post count in the face. :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Okay, right now I am having trouble understanding Nemesis and Infector. Are those two people that are already out there? OR are they created later?
The Infector is out there now. The Nemesis must be created by one of the Umbrella roles.

And the zombies get 100% chance if they try to kill somebody together. What is the sense of not trying to kill people together then? What are the advantages for one zombie going at it alone?
Tiredness is a common disadvantage, but I don't think we have that in this game. Otherwise, the most likely issues are greater chance of getting spotted, and having it preclude an alternative action (e.g. if there are only two zombies and one is the infector).

[Alan T]

Maybe an alternate day 1 voting theory would be to vote for whoever's name is closest resembling the current day of the week?

I would hate to be Alan Thursday tommorrow!

[hoopsguy]

To be honest, I am tweaking you a bit. Its pretty easy to suggest there be a run off of two candidates on day 1, but then not have any suggestions on who those candidates should be. Then when your neck starts getting closer to the noose, that two candidate run off isnt as appealing to you. :)



Going back through posts from this morning and ran across this one -

I think two candidate runoff is the best way to make a Day 1 vote count. Statistically, we are probably at worst 66% likely to get one bad guy involved in a runoff.

I've run the numbers on why I think it is a bad idea to have me in the runoff, knowing that I'm with STARS. If we have two people from STARS in that head to head, we are not going to learn nearly as much from this vote.

That being said, if we are going to have someone from STARS be in this against someone from another faction on Day 1 then I'm pretty OK with being that person. I'll be around, I'll argue my points as strongly as I can on Day 1, and take my chances on how it works out. That is a better option for STARS than having someone quiet in this position who gets run over by the other two factions - who would be very pleased to escape a Day 1 lynch.

[Tyrith]

If we go with hoops being the first guy the second guy really needs to be one of the people Alan has been talking about -- I'd be okay with it being bullet.

[Alan T]

Going back through posts from this morning and ran across this one -

I think two candidate runoff is the best way to make a Day 1 vote count. Statistically, we are probably at worst 66% likely to get one bad guy involved in a runoff.

I've run the numbers on why I think it is a bad idea to have me in the runoff, knowing that I'm with STARS. If we have two people from STARS in that head to head, we are not going to learn nearly as much from this vote.

That being said, if we are going to have someone from STARS be in this against someone from another faction on Day 1 then I'm pretty OK with being that person. I'll be around, I'll argue my points as strongly as I can on Day 1, and take my chances on how it works out. That is a better option for STARS than having someone quiet in this position who gets run over by the other two factions - who would be very pleased to escape a Day 1 lynch.

I think you were missing my point. Its not as much that I have an issue with a rundown between people, I was more saying that its easy to say that but leave it to others to determine who that would be.

The only thing I've gathered is that you would be fine with a run down between yourself vs Lathum or yourself vs St.cronin. I've stated that I won't participate in that type of run down, and don't really care to be in one with you involved in it either.

Going based off of nothing other than statistics, its roughly a 32% chance of two stars being in a two person run off today. But the fallacy with that logic is you aren't going to have all 19 votes between those two people, you'll have some sides with an advantage of being able to push candidates they know are not on their team (and more likely to be stars) and in the end, I think on a day 1 run off you are far more likely to have a chance to lynch a Stars member than a non-stars member.

That said, having close votes does matter in voting history and using that to determine things later on in the game. Having a smaller selection of people to vote between helps give more data to go on later (as long as its not a run away vote).

I think there are two bigger factors we have to consider today though than creating voting history between a runoff.

1) Don't lynch someone who will be valuable later in the game just for trying to contibute on day 1 or on a hunch.
2) Don't allow a situation where an accidental tie can happen and thus voiding anything you might gain from the vote later.


I think those two things are more important to avoid than just trying to create a run off on day 1.

[Alan T]

If we go with hoops being the first guy the second guy really needs to be one of the people Alan has been talking about -- I'd be okay with it being bullet.

What would you think of a run off between you and Bullet instead? :)

[hoopsguy]

I'm very envious of the Chief this game - I would expect him to be in a great position to map out sides in this game by the start of Day 4, as long as there is reasonable discussion of candidates.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not normally a guy who wants to return votes with votes in these games. But the 5.5% advantage on that vote, compared to any other vote I would cast, is pretty tough for me to give up on Day 1.

Another note, based on reviewing earlier posts - Lathum says he is going to see Flogging Molly tonight, which I'm pretty sure is his favorite band. So he probably will not be around to defend himself if the vote runs in that direction. He would be my choice for a vote over Cronin, all things being equal.

Although I do not normally find myself drifting in the same direction with my initial thoughts as Cronin, I can usually see his arguments once he spells them out. Today being another example of this ...

[Tyrith]

What would you think of a run off between you and Bullet instead? :)

It would sadden me, especially after my dismal performance in 35. I'm with you; I really don't want to lynch someone that's going to provide a lot of information. If we keep killing cronin/saldana/hoops in the first two days eventually they're going to stop being helpful. We have to put pressure on people that don't talk so at least we can deal with stuff later.

That said. I don't have any factual evidence for any of these guys, so I'm hesitant to be first man in because we tend to lynch the first man in unless they're extremely good at defending their reasoning and themselves in general and they have a good image, which you have, Alan, and I don't. I'm not going to vote for you, lathum, hoops, saldana, anxiety, path, or sndvls today without some good reason. I suppose my preferred lynch group would be bullet, spleen, ntn, just because I don't have experience around them and they don't have the great player rep.

SIDE NOTE: THIS IS NOT ANY KIND OF PERSONAL ATTACK ON YOU, YOUR PLAYING ABILITY, YOUR INTELLECT, OR ANYTHING ELSE. But I have to play the game.

[Alan T]

It would sadden me, especially after my dismal performance in 35. I'm with you; I really don't want to lynch someone that's going to provide a lot of information. If we keep killing cronin/saldana/hoops in the first two days eventually they're going to stop being helpful. We have to put pressure on people that don't talk so at least we can deal with stuff later.

That said. I don't have any factual evidence for any of these guys, so I'm hesitant to be first man in because we tend to lynch the first man in unless they're extremely good at defending their reasoning and themselves in general and they have a good image, which you have, Alan, and I don't. I'm not going to vote for you, lathum, hoops, saldana, anxiety, path, or sndvls today without some good reason. I suppose my preferred lynch group would be bullet, spleen, ntn, just because I don't have experience around them and they don't have the great player rep.

SIDE NOTE: THIS IS NOT ANY KIND OF PERSONAL ATTACK ON YOU, YOUR PLAYING ABILITY, YOUR INTELLECT, OR ANYTHING ELSE. But I have to play the game.

The fun part about reading through posts like this where you list a bunch of names the immediate thing that pops in my mind are:

What about the people you didn't name at all. Wonder if there is some reasoning for that.. hmm :)

[Tyrith]

The people in the middle are the moderately experienced players who I've been around/read in the past. Except for Brian, he's a total wildcard for me. So I suppose I should add Glen to my lynch group, but his performance in Tombstone impressed me some.

[Tyrith]

My fear in this is that I'm going to turn into Alan and wind up face down in a gutter by night 4, or get shot in the middle of the street by the good guys. Being loud and having a lot of posts tends to do that.

[ntndeacon]

Out of curiosity who are we in a good vs good vote off between?

I am thinking historically more than anything else. Aren't most werewolf games 1st days between two good guys. I don't really know that hoops and cronin are good, but I really don't want to get on either bandwagon either.

[Alan T]

My fear in this is that I'm going to turn into Alan and wind up face down in a gutter by night 4, or get shot in the middle of the street by the good guys. Being loud and having a lot of posts tends to do that.

People tend to want to lynch me by day 3 just for the peace and quiet. :)

[Alan T]

I am thinking historically more than anything else. Aren't most werewolf games 1st days between two good guys. I don't really know that hoops and cronin are good, but I really don't want to get on either bandwagon either.

Ok fair enough, was just curious which two you thought personally were good. Hoops and Cronin or Hoops and Lathum or Lathum and Cronin or Hoops and Bullet or whoever :)

So your vote in a sense for Fouts was because you feel its more likely that people with votes are STars members, so the group of people without votes at the time have a higher percentage of being a bad guy.

[Alan T]

So I have a new topic of discussion for everyone that has checked in some way or another. Everyone has been to this thread since the game started except for Bulletsponge (Saldana is in the thread, but I assume reading and getting caught up so hasnt posted yet). Many people checked in various different ways.

I kept track of how people checked in and noticed some came right out and said they were a member of Stars, others implied it and others entirely avoided the topic all together.

My initial thoughts were:

Zombies don't care who you are you arent on their team so they will eat you regardless.

Umbrella wants to avoid being eaten by zombies and want to find the Stars to kill them.

Stars want to identify each other but avoid being killed by both Umbrella and the Zombies.

My thoughts were in this game it seems a bigger advantage to hide your identity as a Stars member than in normal games as Umbrella might know you arent on their side but do not know if you are a zombie or not.

The only compelling reason for Umbrella to not come out and say who they are is that Stars players might kill them off just to keep from killing their own in an effort to find the zombies.

Since we all know that none of us can believe someone when they come right out and say they are a member of Stars, simply saying it doesn't mean alot in the game. My initial instinct in this game was the people who came out and said they were Stars members psychologically had a greater chance of being Umbrella members than anything else.

I'm curious to the three or four people who said you were stars or hinted it, what was your reasoning for doing so rather than hiding in the shadows with the majority.

[ntndeacon]

Well.. guess I was too slow to ask ntndeacon that.

That vote doesn't make much sense to me either. Well not as much the vote as the comment with it. I currently have the vote as:

(2) Hoopsguy - Lathum (112), st.cronin (125)
(1) St.cronin - Fouts (120)
(1) Bulletsponge - Alan (180)
(1) Fouts - Ntndeacon (184)

So I'm pretty puzzled at who the good vs good run off ntndeacon referenced is between right now. :)

Well, the only two names I had heard out there being discussed at that point were Hoops and Cronin. Since there was so much discussion, I guess Ijust assumed it would devolve into a Hoops vs Cronin match up without any other candidates out there. I realize your Bullet post was there but I had not read it very deeply at the point of my post.

[saldana]

interesting day one to this point...lots of posts but not many votes.

so far two things that jump of the page at me:
1. i agree with Kwhit that the statement of "i wished i was a bad guy but i am not" is always something that gets my alarm bells ringing

2. when i dont have anything on day one, unless i do the old random thing, i like to go with the first person to cast a 2nd vote...in this case it would be cronin, who put the second vote on Hoops.


I really dont like that play at all...i always try to avoid lynches of certain players until there is evidence against them, and hoops is at or near the top of that list...cronin has been in more than enough games to know the value of hoops to the the villagers, so i really dont understand why he would make a crapshoot vote for him on day 1.

i'm not ready to vote yet, but right now, cronin is at the top of my list. part of me wants to say he is also to smart to make such an obvious play, but he also thinks tom brady is better than joe montana, so i do have some doubts about his intellect :D

[spleen1015]

Reading everything today, I think I know what way I am going to go today. I'm just going to wait and see how things go the rest of the day.

[path12]

I'm having big time problems connecting to the net today, we're having a denial of service attack. So I'll try to get on where/when I can, but might be limited today, especially since I have some chores tonight.

But while I'm here, I just want to say how interesting it is to see us go an entirely different way than the usual overanalyzing of initial posts. Although I think this is a good idea generally, I believe having the additional factions can actually make initial posts more important than usual.

For example, as I believe Alan noted above, I find it very interesting to see that some of us are coming right out and aligning themselves with stars. I think that there are likely a couple of bluffs in that group -- I don't understand why you'd put that bullseye on yourself right off the bat.

[BrianD]

1. i agree with Kwhit that the statement of "i wished i was a bad guy but i am not" is always something that gets my alarm bells ringing


I suppose I should pay more attention to my off-hand comments. The first day chaos is always entertaining for a small portion of the game players and frustrating for the rest since everybody knows it so often turns into a good-vs-good fight. I was just speaking to that frustration.

[Abe Sargent]

I'm going to believe in hoops this game because of odds. :) He was a wolf last game and that game was pretty big. This game is also pretty big, so him being a wolf is pretty slim.

My father wrote an article for a games and puzzles mag back in the 70s where he dissected teh view that people look at hte overall chance instead of the next one when determining odds and that is flawed. Suppose, for maths sake, there is a 1 in 3 chance of being a bad gy in this game. It does not matter what hoops was last game, there is still a 1 in 3 chance of hoops being a baddie.

The likelihood of me flipping heads three times in a row is 12.5%, but after I've flipped heads twice, it rises to 50%.


-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

I'll come out and say why I'm doing it right away - because I'm pretty heavily in the discussion for lynch (leading at the moment) and that knowledge is shaping my voting decision.

The people who have played a few games with me know that there is usually a 2nd thought behind the one that I post on the board, particularly when I'm on the offensive in a game. If I'm able to move to a cleared position early in the game, I can go on the offensive and really try to help the "good faction" win this game.

Whether playing as a good guy, or as a bad guy, an early game goal is to move to cleared status. As a bad guy it involves some lies along the way. As a good guy, that isn't the case unless there is some wicked angle-shooting going on. Obviously it is a lot easier to play the game in the "good" role. And when I get the opportunity to do so, I try to play the game in an aggressive fashion that hopefully results in putting pressure on the other team. If I'm enough of a threat for them to take me out at night, so be it. My enjoyment of werewolf isn't predicated on surviving for a long time as much as providing value for my team in the time that I do play.

So, that pretty much covers my reasons for coming out as STARS in this game. Partially because of early game circumstances, but largely in part because of my overall "good guy" philosophy on how to play the game.

[st.cronin]

As regular STARS, the only one out of that lot who is going to pick someone worth voting for is the chief. Umbrella will be figuring that anyone who isn't them works well, zombies the same, meaning that aside from the chief, the baddies are most likely to pick STARS. It's to the STARS favor to drive the voting so that there's a better chance of picking up a zombie or Umbrella.

This is what I disagree with, particularly on day 1. If Stars are driving the vote, and it ends up stars vs. stars, then we've got nothing. If we let non-stars drive the vote, and it ends up stars vs. stars, then we've got something - the people that drove the vote. Because stars don't know who stars are, get it? But the other folks do - so let them pick people to lynch. Then we punish them when they get it wrong.

That's why I waited to see who voted first.

[Alan T]

This is what I disagree with, particularly on day 1. If Stars are driving the vote, and it ends up stars vs. stars, then we've got nothing. If we let non-stars drive the vote, and it ends up stars vs. stars, then we've got something - the people that drove the vote. Because stars don't know who stars are, get it? But the other folks do - so let them pick people to lynch. Then we punish them when they get it wrong.

That's why I waited to see who voted first.

I still don't understand this though. You keep saying you waited to see who voted first, but you didn't vote for that person. You voted for someone who hasn't voted yet.

I could buy into your theory a bit more if you used this arguement to turn around and vote for Lathum. I understand Lathum's excuse for voting early (not going to be here today), but if you wanted to use that as a reason to vote for him, then so be it. But why use the voting early reasoning for someone who did not vote early?

In my mind all this does is associate yourself with Hoops and Lathum in some scenerio which can be a bad thing for many reasons.

If hoops or lathum ends up bad at some point, then we spend time trying to figure out if you and the other of them are bad too and were trying to distance yourself some. If you both are good guys, all we end up with is a few days of spinning our wheels chasing stars members while the zombies do what they want to at night.

I fully admit that out of you, hoops and Lathum odds are that at least 1 of you 3 are not on the same team.. but are we really ready to spend the first 3 days of the game pursuing that on a hunch?

[Tyrith]

This is what I disagree with, particularly on day 1. If Stars are driving the vote, and it ends up stars vs. stars, then we've got nothing. If we let non-stars drive the vote, and it ends up stars vs. stars, then we've got something - the people that drove the vote. Because stars don't know who stars are, get it? But the other folks do - so let them pick people to lynch. Then we punish them when they get it wrong.

That's why I waited to see who voted first.

This plan won't work because the entire STARS group won't play along with it. You should know that. What if the bad guys all play quiet -- we have to kill someone eventually, and you're going to tear them apart. This kind of plan only works if everyone will cooperate. You're vote itself either indicates you're or you're a bad guy, if you judge yourself by your own logic.

This is getting too close to the realm of voting for cronin even though i don't want to...but damn, cronin really knows better than to pull insanely stupid crap like this.

[st.cronin]

Alan, I also agree there isn't a whole lot of value YET in claiming to be part of stars. I will say that it seems like it will be a better bluff for zombies at a certain point to claim to be umbrella, obviously. But at this point, either umbrella or stars could concievably be claiming to be stars as a bluff. To me it doesn't mean anything.

[Abe Sargent]

After reading some of your early analysis I dont believe I am smart enough for this game. Also, it seems we have there experts here that are going to blow some of us newer folk away. I am going back to the first page to reread the rules, but right now I have no grasp of who to vote for besides NOT voting for Lathum, hoops, alant or st. cronin

Don't worry, I'm in the same boat and I am a supposed expert. A lot of experts fall into tunnel vision trap, and forget to review the whole picture, instead looking at just one piece. Just make sure you don't and you'll be fine.


-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

part of me wants to say he is also to smart to make such an obvious play, but he also thinks tom brady is better than joe montana, so i do have some doubts about his intellect :D

I do not think Tom Brady is better than Joe Montana. That is like having an opinion that the sky is blue.

[Abe Sargent]

How come more people haven't made hay out of the fact that st. cronin claimed he thought only baddies voted early and then he voted early?

[Tyrith]

Alan, I also agree there isn't a whole lot of value YET in claiming to be part of stars. I will say that it seems like it will be a better bluff for zombies at a certain point to claim to be umbrella, obviously. But at this point, either umbrella or stars could concievably be claiming to be stars as a bluff. To me it doesn't mean anything.

If you claim to be umbrella sniper is gonna vape you, so that doesn't seem like a smart play for anyone. That or we'll lynch them because STARS doesn't really need umbrella to continuing existing if they're going to try to lynch us.

[Tyrith]

How come more people haven't made hay out of the fact that st. cronin claimed he thought only baddies voted early and then he voted early?

I just pointed that out. Cronin, if you could answer this for us, please.

[st.cronin]

I still don't understand this though. You keep saying you waited to see who voted first, but you didn't vote for that person. You voted for someone who hasn't voted yet.

I could buy into your theory a bit more if you used this arguement to turn around and vote for Lathum. I understand Lathum's excuse for voting early (not going to be here today), but if you wanted to use that as a reason to vote for him, then so be it. But why use the voting early reasoning for someone who did not vote early?

In my mind all this does is associate yourself with Hoops and Lathum in some scenerio which can be a bad thing for many reasons.

If hoops or lathum ends up bad at some point, then we spend time trying to figure out if you and the other of them are bad too and were trying to distance yourself some. If you both are good guys, all we end up with is a few days of spinning our wheels chasing stars members while the zombies do what they want to at night.

I fully admit that out of you, hoops and Lathum odds are that at least 1 of you 3 are not on the same team.. but are we really ready to spend the first 3 days of the game pursuing that on a hunch?


Isn't it obvious why I haven't voted for Lathum yet? Unless a new candidate emerges, I'll either leave my vote on Lathum or move it to somebody who already has a vote.

[st.cronin]

sorry, last post should read leave my vote on hoops.

[Abe Sargent]

In fact, I think that's where I'll go with my vote unless I come across something better for a Day One vote.


Vote st. Cronin

[st.cronin]

How come more people haven't made hay out of the fact that st. cronin claimed he thought only baddies voted early and then he voted early?

Well, I guess I wasn't clear enough. My thought was that regular Stars would NOT be likely to cast a FIRST vote - not an early vote.

[Tyrith]

I just find anything based off Lathum's vote highly suspicious. Unless we think Lathum was lying about being gone all day for sure, in which case we need to lynch Lathum for being a bastard. Otherwise early votes really can't be used for anything like that and I suspect Lathum was just having some fun with his vote.

[st.cronin]

I just find anything based off Lathum's vote highly suspicious. Unless we think Lathum was lying about being gone all day for sure, in which case we need to lynch Lathum for being a bastard. Otherwise early votes really can't be used for anything like that and I suspect Lathum was just having some fun with his vote.

That's entirely possible. But the option to using a strategy (which I am trying to do, however misguided people think it is) is to just vote at random, as others are claiming to do.

I think a random vote has much less value than a vote which is based on theory, even if the theory turns out wrong.

[Alan T]

Isn't it obvious why I haven't voted for Lathum yet? Unless a new candidate emerges, I'll either leave my vote on Lathum or move it to somebody who already has a vote.

To be fair, the above quote Cronin meant leaving his vote on hoops not lathum as he wrote. Just clearing that up before this gets viewed wrong...

Now with that said, lets take the three earliest voters (besides you)

Hoopsguy
Fouts
Alan T

If you chose to move off of Hoopsguy to another early voter, would it be either myself or Fouts? Would you prefer neither and to stick with Hoops if you had your choice of those three?

[Tyrith]

I have to agree with that, which is why I haven't started a dogpile yet. I think, like you thought last game, that you could easily be a misguided villager....for now. It makes me want to keep you around if you're good just so we have more thoughts later. But I also want to keep hoops around for the same reason, hence me going with Alan's kill UTR strategy for now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If you claim to be umbrella sniper is gonna vape you, so that doesn't seem like a smart play for anyone.Not true -- the sniper is only useful against zombies, because s/he'll commit suicide if a STARS or Umbrella is hit.

[Tyrith]

Oops, wtf, I read that or in the wrong place. Then yes, umbrella reveal could be useful in some circumstances, but we might still have to kill them. Lynching an umbrella isn't going to be a bad lynch unless/until we hit the endgame and we need to keep everyone alive to prolong the game...and at that point Umbrella is going to start killing zombies, too.

[Abe Sargent]

Well, I guess I wasn't clear enough. My thought was that regular Stars would NOT be likely to cast a FIRST vote - not an early vote.

Obviously, you weren't clear, because you didn't say first, you said early. Sounds like backpedalling, because here is what you actually said:

I am going to assume that any player who casts an early vote is either zombie, umbrella, or police chief. Regular stars players will likely be looking for clues that somebody is the police chief.

Using your own stated logic, you are either a zombie, umbrella or the police chief. Not much chance that you will help us, so I'm voting for ya. Not first, but merely early.

-Anxiety

[spleen1015]

To be fair, the above quote Cronin meant leaving his vote on hoops not lathum as he wrote. Just clearing that up before this gets viewed wrong...

Now with that said, lets take the three earliest voters (besides you)

Hoopsguy
Fouts
Alan T

If you chose to move off of Hoopsguy to another early voter, would it be either myself or Fouts? Would you prefer neither and to stick with Hoops if you had your choice of those three?

Are you counting my early vote for you here? That vote doesn't really count. I was just screwing around before roles were even sent out.

[Alan T]

Are you counting my early vote for you here? That vote doesn't really count. I was just screwing around before roles were even sent out.

I'm pretty confused. I think you have stumped me on this question.. I didn't mention you anywhere in there :) I just picked the three earliest "legal" votes of the day not including his own when I asked him that question :)

I was just curious since he offered the possibility of switching off of hoops to another early voter, which he had in mind. :)

[Lathum]

OK, I got back early and have a little time before I am leaving for the show. First off, I find the notion that I would vote early on the pretense of the possibility for me being gone all day as "gamesmenship" kind of offensive. That being said I had to cast a vote in case I wasn't going to be home. For those who don't believe me saldana can vouch for the fact that I called him an my way home.

I knew my early vote would cause some discussion ( and it sure did!!) but I would rather vore early then not vote at all for 2 reasons:

1. At the end of the day it looks WAY more guilty to note vote at all then to vote first.

2. I don't think it is fair for whoever is running the game.

COnsidering the reactions and subsequint discussion I am

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY

that vote was basicly a day one throw away vote.

St. Cronins action raise flags to me. Post #112 I vote hoops. Post #125 St.Cronin jumps on that vote as well. Then in post #160 St.Cronin says he's open to voting for me if that's the way it goes. I may be totally wrong but it seems like he is looking for a place to "hide" his vote. That being said

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[spleen1015]

I'm pretty confused. I think you have stumped me on this question.. I didn't mention you anywhere in there :) I just picked the three earliest "legal" votes of the day not including his own when I asked him that question :)

I was just curious since he offered the possibility of switching off of hoops to another early voter, which he had in mind. :)

The confusion is definitely all on my end. I read 'voters' as 'votes' and that changes the meaning of what you were saying completely. Nevermind!

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #247:

(2) St.Cronin - Anxiety (235), Lathum (246)
(1) Hoopsguy - st.cronin (125)
(1) St.cronin - Fouts (120)
(1) Bulletsponge - Alan (180)
(1) Fouts - Ntndeacon (184)
(1) BrianD - KWhit (190)

[hoopsguy]

Oops, lets change that to have all the Cronin votes in one place:

(3) St.Cronin - Fouts (120), Anxiety (235), Lathum (246)
(1) Hoopsguy - st.cronin (125)
(1) Bulletsponge - Alan (180)
(1) Fouts - Ntndeacon (184)
(1) BrianD - KWhit (190)

[Tyrith]

OK, I got back early and have a little time before I am leaving for the show. First off, I find the notion that I would vote early on the pretense of the possibility for me being gone all day as "gamesmenship" kind of offensive. That being said I had to cast a vote in case I wasn't going to be home. For those who don't believe me saldana can vouch for the fact that I called him an my way home.


Just to note, I never thought you were gaming us, but just said that if you were we were going to have to kick your ass for it :)