FOF2K7: PING: Testing Dudes (Re: Question about RB Aging)

[albionmoonlight]

First, super kudos to SkyDog for doing all of that research on player aging.

Indeed, it got me thinking about a question that I had for the new version:

Has anyone here has done testing to see if RBs age based on number of carries?

Finally, this does not seem like that hard of a test to run, so I could do it myself when I get time. I just don't want to re-invent the wheel if it has been done. In addition, my testing/reporting ability is <<< that of people like SkyDog and QuikSand.

[Ben E Lou]

Actually, my first thought on seeing this post is that it would be quite difficult to test, due to there being so many variable factors such as injuries and playing time in the final season before retirement. This seems more like a "learn-as-we-go-along" type of thing, rather than something that can be effectively tested and quantified. Maybe I'm off-base here, but that was my first reaction to reading this yesterday, as is still my reaction now.

[wade moore]

Actually, my first thought on seeing this post is that it would be quite difficult to test, due to there being so many variable factors such as injuries and playing time in the final season before retirement. This seems more like a "learn-as-we-go-along" type of thing, rather than something that can be effectively tested and quantified. Maybe I'm off-base here, but that was my first reaction to reading this yesterday, as is still my reaction now.

If all you wanted to do is test this, couldn't you turn injuries off?

[Ben E Lou]

If all you wanted to do is test this, couldn't you turn injuries off?Yeah, but playing time in the final season appears to be a pretty significant factor in the decision of whether or not to retire. I'll take a quick look at guys who retired without injury in my long test career, but I doubt we'll be able to see any trends.

EDIT: The other issue is that if we see a decline in a guy's performance later in his career, it would be next to impossible to isolate it on aging vs. carries.

[MalcPow]

If all you wanted to do is test this, couldn't you turn injuries off?

That would probably skew the value of the test because conceivably an increased workload would lead to niggling and then more serious injuries that would hasten decline. You could probably get some kind of answer by turning injuries off, but it would have to be taken with a grain of salt I guess.

[JeffW]

At a very basic level, yes. The more carries you have, the greater the chance for injury.

If you turned injuries off, my hunch is that years played and not carries would be the primary factor in determining whether a player retires. I'm not sure carries would factor in at all.

[wade moore]

At a very basic level, yes. The more carries you have, the greater the chance for injury.

If you turned injuries off, my hunch is that years played and not carries would be the primary factor in determining whether a player retires. I'm not sure carries would factor in at all.

I would argue that at a basic level the more plays on the field (pass or run, block, receive, rush, run route) the greater the chance for injury. We have no proof, as far as i know, that the more carries the greater the chance for injury.

[JeffW]

I would argue that at a basic level the more plays on the field (pass or run, block, receive, rush, run route) the greater the chance for injury. We have no proof, as far as i know, that the more carries the greater the chance for injury.

I don't disagree with the first sentence, but I don't understand the second. If he's carrying the ball, he's on the field and has a chance of getting injured, so if he carries the ball a lot he has a lot of opportunities to get injured compared to a backup.

[wade moore]

I don't disagree with the first sentence, but I don't understand the second. If he's carrying the ball, he's on the field and has a chance of getting injured, so if he carries the ball a lot he has a lot of opportunities to get injured compared to a backup.

I'm saying that number of carries isn't relevent in FOF (at least in 2k4), but that number of plays on the field is.

I'm pretty confidant that in 2k4 that there is not an increased chance of getting injured in a play where you carry the ball vs. a play in which you do nothing but run a pattern and don't get thrown to.

[Samdari]

I'm pretty confidant that in 2k4 that there is not an increased chance of getting injured in a play where you carry the ball vs. a play in which you do nothing but run a pattern and don't get thrown to.

Or even, on say, a false start in which you don't move or get touched by any player.

[wade moore]

Or even, on say, a false start in which you don't move or get touched by any player.

Exactly - and that doesn't even count as a play in the box score.

[albionmoonlight]

I wasn't actually thinking in terms of retirement year, but in terms of skill diminishment.