Narcizo
11-15-2006, 07:34 AM
Anyone who has been following Quiksand's Group Think thread (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=53725) will have heard of Artie Markiewicz (probably from me). Basically he was a wide receiver with a great combine showing but very poor scouted skills.
[/URL]
http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/6042/marky2oz1.jpg
His combines pushed him up the boards but nobody wanted to draft a player with such lousy scouted ratings and he dropped out of the draft. I decided to track him as part of my attempts to understand how the draft works. Initially he was rated 12-13 coming out of the draft, as you'd expect looking at his scouted skill-set. However given the fact that he was, supposedly, 12% developed it seemed almost impossible that his ratings should be 12-13.
During the course of my tracking it became clear that he was better than the initial scout report. By 2008 his potential had doubled and I suggested that we sign him. We did so but he didn't show much in the way of signs of improving.
Skip forward to 2009 and the patch is applied. Suddenly Artie is rated 61-61. Woo-hoo! I think. However his experience is only at about 50% so probably his actual ratings are 30-61 or something. Still, a bit of a bargain for an undrafted rookie.
However I'm curious about what a scout would say about him in an interview. I was willing to bet my left testicle that the scout would say he's very over-rated. So I go back to the pre-draft file (conveniently still available in the Group Think mailbox) and install that in my universe file. At first something seems wrong. I can't find Artie where he should be (rated around 4.1 or so). So I sort by rating and see him much further up the draft board. Imagine my surprise when I see that he looks like this.
[URL="http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/1254/markycu6.jpg"] (http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/6042/marky2oz1.jpg)
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/1254/markycu6.jpg
Just to be clear. This is exactly the same file that was used for the draft. The only thing that has changed is that the patch has been applied with the second image.
What this suggests to me is that draft scouting has actually been made more sensible with the patch. The scouts are now giving us what probably is a far more accurate picture of how Artie will develop. So far from there being more scouting errors, when it comes to the draft, it seems that they are more accurate. Either that or they're catastrophically wrong and have hideously over-valued him, and have continued to do so on our team.
The downside of this is that it will probably be even harder to find gems at the bottom of the draft (and outside of it). I shall return once I've studied how some other combine vs scout report guys panned out post and pre-patch.
[/URL]
http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/6042/marky2oz1.jpg
His combines pushed him up the boards but nobody wanted to draft a player with such lousy scouted ratings and he dropped out of the draft. I decided to track him as part of my attempts to understand how the draft works. Initially he was rated 12-13 coming out of the draft, as you'd expect looking at his scouted skill-set. However given the fact that he was, supposedly, 12% developed it seemed almost impossible that his ratings should be 12-13.
During the course of my tracking it became clear that he was better than the initial scout report. By 2008 his potential had doubled and I suggested that we sign him. We did so but he didn't show much in the way of signs of improving.
Skip forward to 2009 and the patch is applied. Suddenly Artie is rated 61-61. Woo-hoo! I think. However his experience is only at about 50% so probably his actual ratings are 30-61 or something. Still, a bit of a bargain for an undrafted rookie.
However I'm curious about what a scout would say about him in an interview. I was willing to bet my left testicle that the scout would say he's very over-rated. So I go back to the pre-draft file (conveniently still available in the Group Think mailbox) and install that in my universe file. At first something seems wrong. I can't find Artie where he should be (rated around 4.1 or so). So I sort by rating and see him much further up the draft board. Imagine my surprise when I see that he looks like this.
[URL="http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/1254/markycu6.jpg"] (http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/6042/marky2oz1.jpg)
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/1254/markycu6.jpg
Just to be clear. This is exactly the same file that was used for the draft. The only thing that has changed is that the patch has been applied with the second image.
What this suggests to me is that draft scouting has actually been made more sensible with the patch. The scouts are now giving us what probably is a far more accurate picture of how Artie will develop. So far from there being more scouting errors, when it comes to the draft, it seems that they are more accurate. Either that or they're catastrophically wrong and have hideously over-valued him, and have continued to do so on our team.
The downside of this is that it will probably be even harder to find gems at the bottom of the draft (and outside of it). I shall return once I've studied how some other combine vs scout report guys panned out post and pre-patch.