Player Development: Definite Changes In Direction

[Ben E Lou]

It's good to see that we can no longer just watch "creepers" to decide on whether or not to keep guys around. I've got the following development for a 2nd-year guy, for example:

<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Slayton, Brent</td> <td>SS</td> <td>Atlanta</td> <td>
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</pre></td> <td>15</td> <td>55</td> <td>15 (0)</td> <td>48 (-7)</td> <td>16 (1)</td> <td>43 (-5)</td> <td>22 (6)</td> <td>49 (6)</td> <td>7</td> <td>-6</td></tr></tbody></table>

Slayton dropped 7 potential points at his first training camp, and gained zero current points--a certain sign in FOF2K4 that he wouldn't live up to his potential, probably by a long shot. He shows up pre-camp the following year having dropped 5 more future points, and with only one point of development to show for his playing time as a rookie. However, post-camp prior to year 2, he shows some nice gains in ratings, enough to make me have some hope that this 5th-round draft choice might amount to a decent player. As my dynasty continues, I'll update this thread on his progress

Has anyone else seen a guy reverse directions significantly like this early in his career?

(And no, I didn't send him to play in the summer league.)

[Narcizo]

I've seen it happen in the opposite direction. I took a running back at the top of the second round based, mostly, on his combine figures. His potential went up as I had imagined in training camp and he had a great rookie season rushing for over 1,000 yards with a YPC over 4. The next year he had his current and potential slump to below what it was coming out of the draft (and this wasn't because his current ability had hit its max). Haven't played the year yet but I'm going to stick with him and see if his figures suffer. He hadn't been to camp either. Same thing happened to a second round linebacker I drafted (although he'd been sent to the Summer League) but he gained some (but not all) of it back again, so I put it down to a failed Summer League.

[MIJB#19]

SD, did you change your lead scout or defensive coordinator in between?
(Just making sure all factors are taken into account).

[Joker]

Checking my data on my test league I only see 1 player that matches.
THIS IS ONE BUST-A-LICIOUS WR

--------------------------40------bench--agil-jump---------predraft-post-BUST------2YR--3YR--4YR
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a221/1985bustinout/schroeder.jpg

[dbd1963]

I have a DE that was pretty good at one point -- as high as 51 I think. He'd had some good seasons, but by the end of his 9th year he was down to 43 and I thought he was a goner. Then after training camp in his 10th year he boomed back up to 61. I've never seen that before. And it's the same scout.

[Ben E Lou]

I have a DE that was pretty good at one point -- as high as 51 I think. He'd had some good seasons, but by the end of his 9th year he was down to 43 and I thought he was a goner. Then after training camp in his 10th year he boomed back up to 61. I've never seen that before. And it's the same scout.18 points? I'd classify that as a veteran boom, which is something different than what we see with "creepers."

[Joker]

It's good to see that we can no longer just watch "creepers" to decide on whether or not to keep guys around. I've got the following development for a 2nd-year guy, for example:

<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Slayton, Brent</td> <td>SS</td> <td>Atlanta</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>15</td> <td>55</td> <td>15 (0)</td> <td>48 (-7)</td> <td>16 (1)</td> <td>43 (-5)</td> <td>22 (6)</td> <td>49 (6)</td> <td>7</td> <td>-6</td></tr></tbody></table>

Slayton dropped 7 potential points at his first training camp, and gained zero current points--a certain sign in FOF2K4 that he wouldn't live up to his potential, probably by a long shot. He shows up pre-camp the following year having dropped 5 more future points, and with only one point of development to show for his playing time as a rookie. However, post-camp prior to year 2, he shows some nice gains in ratings, enough to make me have some hope that this 5th-round draft choice might amount to a decent player. As my dynasty continues, I'll update this thread on his progress

Has anyone else seen a guy reverse directions significantly like this early in his career?

(And no, I didn't send him to play in the summer league.)

I've dug through all my data, stats and history and I'm sorry all I have for you is "no". I can't find anything that duplicates your finding.

[dbd1963]

18 points? I'd classify that as a veteran boom, which is something different than what we see with "creepers."

I added the information because I thought it was an interesting development, but your mileage may vary. Never saw solid starters fading and then re-blossoming in FOF2004. He was creeping though. Downwards.

[Eaglesfan27]

I have a workout warrior who creeped down significantly his first year, then up a bit his 2nd year, then down a bit his 3rd year, and than a nice leap in his 4th year. I'm seeing this variability in development as well, but I've stuck with the guy as a starter in my test and not cut his playing time.

[Narcizo]

I added the information because I thought it was an interesting development, but your mileage may vary. Never saw solid starters fading and then re-blossoming in FOF2004. He was creeping though. Downwards.

I have. While no common it's hardly very rare either. Random booms can effect any player at (almost) any age. I've seen 13-year linebackers drift from 50-something down to 36 and then boom up to 60 (higher than they've ever been) in FOF2004.

[Ben E Lou]

Another significant one. We'll see where he goes...

<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Howe, Bernie</td> <td>RB</td> <td>Atlanta</td> <td>
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</pre></td> <td>31</td> <td>53</td> <td>31 (0)</td> <td>49 (-4)</td> <td>31 (0)</td> <td>46 (-3)</td> <td>33 (2)</td> <td>49 (3)</td> <td>2</td> <td>-4</td></tr></tbody></table>
31/53 undrafted FA, drops to 31/49 in his first training camp. Drops another 3 points in FA1 his second season, but then is +2/+3 in his second training camp.