NL Holdem - Prop Bets

[rkmsuf]

So I'm watching High Stakes Poker on GSN and the table is fixated with the prop bets taking place. Can someone explain to me how these work and what's going on?

[SirFozzie]

It's a way for these guys to always have something on the gamble going on (even if they're not in a hand)

They stake out types of flops like "All clubs", or a flop of "4-5-6". Every time a flop comes up, that matches their prop bet with someone, they get paid.

[rkmsuf]

what's all this "triples for this" and stuff like that?

for some reason it seemed like on this particular show that you had to win or be involved in the hand to cash a prop.

I'm sure there are hundreds of variations. Just wanted a sense of the most common action.

[hoopsguy]

I play these with a couple of my friends. We each pick three cards (Player 1: KQJ, Player 2: 234). It is a flop game, you need two cards to come in to win your prop.

Flop comes down: 22K - player 2 has to recognize that his prop hit. He calls it out, he gets paid. He doesn't see it, he gets taunted by others when the turn comes down as he missed out on cash

Flop comes down: KJJ - player 1 has hit a doubler, as all three of his cards came on the flop.

If you hit your prop on the previous hand, then the next hand is a doubler or a tripler - we usually cap it at 3x, although you can continue to win 3x if the flops keep coming down hand after hand for you.

Basically, it is a good way to take money from the drunk guy, as he forgets to call his props out when they hit :)

[hoopsguy]

Oh, and in our version you don't need to be involved in the hand. I don't think being involved is usually a requirement - the point of props is to create a little more action during the game.

[rkmsuf]

thanks for the info. what stakes do you usually set?




*today I will be playing the part of jbmagic.*

[hoopsguy]

In our game, the props are a buck apiece. We play them more often in cash games than in tournaments. A pretty standard cash game, in terms of stakes, is 1/2 NLHE cash game ($40 buy-in) with most players willing to buy in a couple of times if they head south on a big hand early.

I think the most I've ever won/lost on props in one of our games is about $25. The size they are playing on High Stakes is enough to make the props just as interesting as the hands, based on their fascination with them in Season 2. From what I understand, the producers wanted to limit or eliminate the props in Season 3 because it was dominating the player conversation and distracting from the hands in play, to some extent.

[rkmsuf]

In our game, the props are a buck apiece. We play them more often in cash games than in tournaments. A pretty standard cash game, in terms of stakes, is 1/2 NLHE cash game ($40 buy-in) with most players willing to buy in a couple of times if they head south on a big hand early.

I think the most I've ever won/lost on props in one of our games is about $25. The size they are playing on High Stakes is enough to make the props just as interesting as the hands, based on their fascination with them in Season 2. From what I understand, the producers wanted to limit or eliminate the props in Season 3 because it was dominating the player conversation and distracting from the hands in play, to some extent.

If you have multipe participants in a prop and say player 1 hits his prop, do players 2,3,4 all "pay" player 1 a dollar?

[QuikSand]

There's another good (related) prop bet with hold 'em that I have seen...

I've been noticing atrend in the cards tonight, and I will bet you even money that the next flop will include at least one 2, 7, or a Queen. What do you say?

Sucker, even a fairly intelligent one, will sometimes take the bet, thinking that I'm falling for some sort of nonsense of "hot" cards or trands in random behavior. What they miss, often enough, is that the likelihood of at least one of those 12 cards showing up on any given 3-card flop is a little bit better than 50%, and I actyually have the winning side of the bet.

Not a bad way to pass time, especially if you have the better end of it. I once was playing in a fairly small stakes tournament with a $100+15 buy-in, and two guys at our table were playing this game for $100 a hand. Seemed to me to put the stakes of the card game all out of whack, if you ask me, but they were having fun.

[panerd]

I think the most I've ever won/lost on props in one of our games is about $25. The size they are playing on High Stakes is enough to make the props just as interesting as the hands, based on their fascination with them in Season 2. From what I understand, the producers wanted to limit or eliminate the props in Season 3 because it was dominating the player conversation and distracting from the hands in play, to some extent.

It seems like a reasonable request as they are probably being nicely compensated and get the continued exposure that makes non poker people actually know who Daniel Negruenu and Gus Hansen are.

[Huckleberry]

Sucker, even a fairly intelligent one, will sometimes take the bet, thinking that I'm falling for some sort of nonsense of "hot" cards or trands in random behavior. What they miss, often enough, is that the likelihood of at least one of those 12 cards showing up on any given 3-card flop is a little bit better than 50%, and I actyually have the winning side of the bet.

Can someone check my math? I show 55.3% that at least one of three card ranks will show up on a flop out of a full 52 cards.

But if you pick 3 ranks that you have none of (which you would obviously do) it's 57.0%, right?

That's a hell of a bet QS is getting for even money. :) Is the bet made before the cards are dealt (the 55% bet)?

[Pumpy Tudors]

I've been noticing atrend in the cards tonight, and I will bet you even money that the next flop will include at least one 2, 7, or a Queen. What do you say?

Sucker, even a fairly intelligent one, will sometimes take the bet, thinking that I'm falling for some sort of nonsense of "hot" cards or trands in random behavior. What they miss, often enough, is that the likelihood of at least one of those 12 cards showing up on any given 3-card flop is a little bit better than 50%, and I actyually have the winning side of the bet.
I'm trying to figure out the math on this one, and it's escaping me. Would you mind explaining how the likelihood is over 50% on that?

[QuikSand]

Can someone check my math? I show 55.3% that at least one of three card ranks will show up on a flop out of a full 52 cards.

But if you pick 3 ranks that you have none of (which you would obviously do) it's 57.0%, right?

That's a hell of a bet QS is getting for even money. :) Is the bet made before the cards are dealt (the 55% bet)?

I don't recall the specifics, but I know that my side of the bet (that one of the 3 ranks will hit on the next flop) is the better side of it, and many people take the other side because they guess that they have the better side of it.

This is the real world of prop bets -- knowing the angles better than the other guy, and getting him to take the bad side of the bet based on his own internal (bad) calculations. Setting stuff up that is an obviously 50/50 proposition is just a diversion - that can certainly be fun, but it's not art.

The guy who I saw hustle this $100/flop game probably had the other guy going for around 45 minutes... and I don't even recall how much net money changed hands, but the math isn't hard to work through. If he's a 55% winner, and they gambled on 20 flops, he ought to win 11 out of 20 and net $200. Not bad payoff for just getting a fool to take a bad bet for a while.

[Huckleberry]

I got 55% like this (before cards are dealt)

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 = 44.7% chance that none of those cards will hit any part of the flop

55.3% chance that at least one of them will hit.

I like this bet, though. There's a variation that gets it real close to 50%. Let's say QS proposes the bet to a guy that is about to fold. The guy picks the three cards and includes two ranks that his hand contained. The odds are now 49.6% for him that one of those cards will hit the flop if he doesn't know QS's cards. Problem, of course, is that other people at the table would know his dead cards are included in the selected ranks.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Thanks, Huckleberry, The math makes sense to me now. It just hadn't occurred to me to think of it that way.

The man knows football and math!

[BrianD]

I'm trying to figure out the math on this one, and it's escaping me. Would you mind explaining how the likelihood is over 50% on that?

I'll give it a shot. I think it is easier to do the calculation for not having one of those 3 ranks come up on the flop. Since there are 12 of the 52 cards covered by the 3 ranks, the first card of the flop will have a 40/52 chance of not being one of the 3 ranks. The second card will have a 39/51 chance and the third card will have a 38/50 chance. Multiply those all together 40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 = .447 The probability of not seeing one of those 3 ranks is 44.7% and the odds of seeing at least one is 55.3%.

[BrianD]

dola

Damn, too slow.