POL--Obama's Problems Starting Already (Email Forward)

[albionmoonlight]

Just got this in the inbox.

It will be very hard for Obama to win a general election, IMO. I see no way in which this stuff will go away.

Subject: FW: Obama.
>
>
> READ CAREFULLY AND PRAY!!!!!!!! GOD HELP THE USA!!!!
>
> >
> >Subject: Obama.
> >Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2007 21:56:36 -0600
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >Probable U. S. presidential candidate, Barack Hussein Obama was born in
> >Honolulu, Hawaii, to Barack Hussein Obama, Sr., a black Muslim from
> >Nyangoma-Kogel, Kenya and Ann Dunham, a white atheist from Wichita, Kansas.
> > Obama's parents met at the University of Hawaii.
> >
> >When Obama was two years old, his parents divorced. His father returned to
> >Kenya. His mother then married Lolo Soetoro, a radical Muslim from
> >Indonesia. When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocated to Indonesia.
> >Obama attended a Muslim school in Jakarta. He also spent two years in a
> >Catholic school.
> >
> >Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim. He is
> >quick to point out that, He was once a Muslim, but that he also attended
> >Catholic school.
> >
> >Obama's political handlers are attempting to make it appear that Obama's
> >introduction to Islam came via his father, and that this influence was
> >temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama returned to Kenya soon
> >after the divorce, and never again had any direct influence over his son's
> >education. Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obamas mother, Ann Dunham,
> >introduced his stepson to Islam. Osama was enrolled in a Wahabi school in
> >Jakarta. Wahabism is the radical teaching that i! s followed by the Muslim
> >terrorists who are now waging Jihad against the western world.
> >
> >Since it is politically expedient to be a Christian when seeking major
> >public office in the United States, Barack Hussein Obama has joined the
<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","> >United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background.
> >
> >Let us all remain alert concerning Obamas expected presidential candidacy.
>
> ______________________________<wbr />______________________________<wbr />_____
> Get live scores and news about your team: Add the Live.com (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/) Football Page
> http://www.live.com/?addtempla<wbr />te\u003dfootball (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/)
>
>

</div>",0]);//--></SCRIPT>> >United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background.
> >
> >Let us all remain alert concerning Obamas expected presidential candidacy.
>

[SirFozzie]

Yay Muslim bashing.

And taking great pains to hide his Muslim background=talking about it in his books.

Morons

[Raiders Army]

I'd be more worried if the email said he was a supporter of Hillary.

[terpkristin]

I normally stay out of POL threads, but wasn't this an expose purported by FOXNews like a week ago and then CNN came out and completely debunked it?

Not that I really ccan say how I feel about Obama and if he could be a good prez, just sayin'...

/tk

[Klinglerware]

I wonder what will freak conservative christians (who I presume are the target audience of this e-mail) out the most: (a) that he "is a muslim", (b) his mom "was an atheist", (c) he went to catholic school, (d) was a child born of an inter-racial marriage, or (e) a current member of the United Church of Christ?

[larrymcg421]

Hey, did you guys here that gang members drive with their headlights off and then kill anyone who flashes them?

Or did you hear that one about what Tommy Hillfiger said on Oprah?

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp

[albionmoonlight]

I normally stay out of POL threads, but wasn't this an expose purported by FOXNews like a week ago and then CNN came out and completely debunked it?

Well, that's the point. It goes beyond Fox News and what can and can't be debunked and what is and isn't true.

It's going to be a whole underground campaign of emails, etc..

An email says that Obama is a secret Muslim hell bent on destroying America.

The "facts" say that he isn't.

Well, at that point who do you believe? Better to be safe than sorry when the rubber meets the road and just vote for the other person. Just in case.

I, too, don't really have a personal opinion on Obama yet. But I think that he really does not have a chance of winning.

[Klinglerware]

I think most people reading this thread realize that this is political dirty trickery. I.e., if this was an e-mail forward, it certainly must be false.

[dawgfan]

The ugly downside to the internet - any moron can sling as much mud as they choose about a candidate regardless of whether the charges have any merit or not, and there will be people out there gullible enough to believe it.

And yes, this is essentially the same, ugly charges leveled by the Rev. Moon's newsmagazine and then parroted by Fox News which has been completely debunked; and yet those that have leveled the charges haven't faced any repercussions from their inaccuracies, nor have the apologies that have been issued (and those have been rare so far) really sounded much like a genuine retraction or admission of guilt.

In a way, I think I'm glad this bullshit about Obama's past is coming up now - get the debunking out of the way early. But I expect more of the same - a mulatto man with an arabic-sounding name in this climate is going to be a ripe target for slander from the extremist right.

[BYU 14]

Where is the "you must forward this to 12 friends or America will fall into chaos" closing line?

Sheesh

[Buccaneer]

I realize that Obama is the hottest flavor of the month, but I would much rather see Hillary slammed incessantly between now and the primaries, forcing her to drop out. Or are they just holding the ammo for now?

[Swaggs]

I realize that Obama is the hottest flavor of the month, but I would much rather see Hillary slammed incessantly between now and the primaries, forcing her to drop out. Or are they just holding the ammo for now?


She has been in the public eye for over 20 years, so there is a lot less of a history gap to fill in with her.

[st.cronin]

I can't believe that somebody would use tactics like this in politics. I'm flabbergasted. Don't people have integrity?

[dawgfan]

I can't believe that somebody would use tactics like this in politics. I'm flabbergasted. Don't people have integrity?


In the past, when purportedly legitimate news organizations published or broadcast allegations that were later proven false, real retractions were issued and heads rolled.

Where are the rolling heads at Insight or Fox News?

[cartman]

Let the racial/religious swiftboating begin.

:(

[JPhillips]

In a way this is good. Get it out early. Obama is going to face a real slime machine because he has a real shot at winning it all. I don't think the Republicans see a realistic shot at retaking the House and the Senate will be very difficult due to the makeup of those running. The White House is going to be a do or die stand. I expect much worse than what was done to Gore or Kerry.

[albionmoonlight]

In a way this is good. Get it out early.

Yes and no. The longer it is around and the more it is repeated, the more validity it will get just through repetition.

[JPhillips]

I think two years out is too much. Six months, a year, maybe, but two years from now those who still believe it won't be potential Obama voters anyway.

[Buccaneer]

In a way this is good. Get it out early. Obama is going to face a real slime machine because he has a real shot at winning it all. I don't think the Republicans see a realistic shot at retaking the House and the Senate will be very difficult due to the makeup of those running. The White House is going to be a do or die stand. I expect much worse than what was done to Gore or Kerry.

I think you forgot to turn your sarcasm meter on. It will be very difficult for him to even win the Dem nomination, let alone having any real shot at winning it all. Hillary has a much better shot at winning the Dems but faces a difficult time if she has to face someone like McCain because she has two strikes against her. No, the Dems will play it safe to reach a broader base on all sides awat from the extremes, as will the Reps.

[Buccaneer]

Besides, it's really funny to see someone say "I expect much worse than what was done to Gore or Kerry." when the main faults that they did it more to themselves (like in running really lousy campaigns), or is that already ancient history?

[amdaily]

As a candiate for President, Obama = Dean. Whereas Dean's eccentric-ness doomed him, Obama's inexperience will doom him. Just a matter of time. Media can hype him all they want, they will eventually be his death nail. Hillary's nomination is inevitable and she will fall handily to a yet unrecognized Republican, be it Hunter, Huckabee, etc.

[JPhillips]

Buc: I'm not going to say Gore or Kerry ran a good campaign, but you can't be saying they weren't battered by negative campaigning.

am: Hunter has as much chance of winning as I do. Huckabee, though, is a guy to watch.

Obama is nothing like Dean. Dean wasn't very likable and Obama is extremely likable. He can beat Hillary especially if Edwards stays relatively strong. Obama will get huge support from those that think Hillary can't win the general. He'll also pull enough of the black vote to be in a position to win.

I'm not guaranteeing he'll win the nomination, but it's foolish to say he can't. He's got everything he needs to win the primary, likability, money, exposure. Hillary's still the favorite, but not by much.

[beargrowlz]

I hear Obama slapped Dean Houston once.

In any case, doesn't anyone else notice the elephant in the room? Or are we all too polite to mention it. I like Obama. I think he'd be a great president.

He won't win because he is black.

This country will not yet (ever?) elect a black man president.

There, I said it.

I don't like it, but I think it's the reality of America today.

And I believe the Dean Houston rumor anyway.

[JPhillips]

Bear: I think you're probably right as far as the general goes, but he can win the primary.

[beargrowlz]

but he can win the primary.


True dat.

[amdaily]

So no one thinks he's going to commit type of some extraordinary type of gaffe to eliminate himself?

If so, you're kidding yourselves. They guy just hasn't been around the block enough times. And personally, I can't wait 'til it happens.

[st.cronin]

So, is he a muslim or isn't he? People seem to be saying both.

[beargrowlz]

So no one thinks he's going to commit type of some extraordinary type of gaffe to eliminate himself?


Anything's possible. Maybe he slept with Jennifer Flowers. *shrug*

[Buccaneer]

Bear: I think you're probably right as far as the general goes, but he can win the primary.

I would still say that there is no chance he'll even win the primaries. Right now, Hillary is polling 64% undecided from just the Dems (I'm recalling these numbers from yesterday), 15% no way and 49% unsure. Obama is polling worse, as hot he is right now. Most states have been hard pressed to elect black Congresspersons or Senators and people thinking Obama will make the gigantic leap to the presidency? Many Dems don't believe that and there will be many Southern and blue collar Dems that won't vote for a Northern black with a Muslim-like name. Plus they know (and don't trust) Hillary, not only the baggage of being a Clinton but being a carpetbagger pseudo-Yankee. No, they will more likely go with Richardson who has a chance against McCain.

[SFL Cat]

Obama won't make it past the primaries. He doesn't stand a chance against the Clinton smear machine.

[dawgfan]

So, is he a muslim or isn't he? People seem to be saying both.
He is a part of the United Church of Christ, so no - he's not a muslim.

[amdaily]

who has a chance against McCain.

Your kidding yourself if you think McCain has a chance in the primaries. I think Repubs fall into two groups, those who vote on leadership abilities such as me (Guiliani) and those who vote on conservative credentials (re: anyone except McCain).

[amdaily]

He is a part of the United Church of Christ, so no - he's not a muslim.

And does John Q. Voter know or care?

Nope!

Maybe sad, but true. Never overestimate the American voter.

[Buccaneer]

Your kidding yourself if you think McCain has a chance in the primaries. I think Repubs fall into two groups, those who vote on leadership abilities such as me (Guiliani) and those who vote on conservative credentials (re: anyone except McCain).

I use McCain as a placeholder, not stating that it will be him. I could have used Guiliani just as easily. But like the Dems, the Reps will vote on a potential big-tent winner. They won't pull a Dole or play for 2012 when so much is at stake (i.e., Dems controlling everything).

[Anthony]

I hear Obama slapped Dean Houston once.

In any case, doesn't anyone else notice the elephant in the room? Or are we all too polite to mention it. I like Obama. I think he'd be a great president.

He won't win because he is black.

This country will not yet (ever?) elect a black man president.

There, I said it.

I don't like it, but I think it's the reality of America today.

And I believe the Dean Houston rumor anyway.

first off, you're wrong. you didn't say it. i did, long ago (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=616987&postcount=5).

secondly, Obama wouldn't slap Dean Houston. it's bad for mass appeal. Dean Houston has a lot of respect from black people - he was active in the urban community giving of his free time and a few of his closest friends on the team (Cleveland Browns) were black. they named him an honorary black man after his 4th season cuz he was down with the 'hood.

thirdly, you don't have enough posts to speak about Dean Houston. i don't know who you are or where you posted those couple hundred other posts, but you don't have enough FOFC cred to start dropping his name. that's enough out of you.

[beargrowlz]

Dean Houston has a lot of respect from black people

Hey, I didn't say dean didn't enjoy it.

[Anthony]

we were talking about the electibility of a black candidate years ago (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=31944&highlight=obama). might wanna take a look at that thread to read up on some of the opinions being discussed that long ago.

[amdaily]

I use McCain as a placeholder, not stating that it will be him. I could have used Guiliani just as easily. But like the Dems, the Reps will vote on a potential big-tent winner. They won't pull a Dole or play for 2012 when so much is at stake (i.e., Dems controlling everything).

There's nothing to say the big-tent winner has even annoucned yet. This election has the making for a last second low level governor/congressman, of either party, to enter and win in a tital wave.

[Anthony]

the next President will be a Republican. if the best the Dems have to throw out are two candidates who would be firsts (first woman Pres vs. first black Pres) then this race is going to whomever the Republicans nominate. i really wish they would nominate a janitor or garbage man, just to show that pretty much all of America would vote for anything that isn't a woman or a black man. i said it in '04, and i'll say it in '07 - we're not ready for a woman or black President.

[Vince]

I like the clever 'typo' of "Osama" for "Obama" later in the e-mail.

[Buccaneer]

I look at three places: South Boston (or Flint), Charlotte and Cincinnati to get a feel for trends among Dems. I am not saying that those three have anything special about them, but are good representation of the rank-and-file voters that can pull in the numbers. They can be the blue-dog Dems that Reagan won over and can easily go for a Bill Clinton. Some call these the "bubba votes" and they are still numerous, centric, anti-elistist, white, anti-snob and won't vote for a Obama or Hillary unless the alternative is really bad.

[Wolfpack]

Charlotte? Really? Hmm. Charlotte at this point in its history is more polarized between the black city population that helps elect Mel Watt to Congress and all the white suburban areas that elect Robin Hayes and Sue Myrick and other right-of-center candidates. There really isn't a "Blue Dog" feel to Mecklenburg County anymore. Now, if you move out to Cabarrus County or up to Salisbury, where there were a lot of textile and furniture manufacturing jobs that have been lost (much like the jobs lost out of Flint or South Boston), then I can see that. Charlotte itself is dominated by the banking industry and is very white collar in this day and age.

[Greyroofoo]

I personally think Obama would make a great Vice Presidential candidate.

[amdaily]

Damn! I actually just saw Huckabee for the first time on Greta. Granted, I knew knowing of this guy before, but he came across as having confidence, credibility on health and security, and just a nice optimistic feeling.

He could be the guy!

[dawgfan]

Never overestimate the American voter.
Trust me, I haven't for quite some time. I was simply answering what appears to be a legitimate question.

[SFL Cat]

Why not, we've already had one former Arkansas governor as president - and I actually liked Huckabee while I lived there.

[JPhillips]

Buc: Even if those areas were Blue Dog areas they aren't big players in the primary. Primary voters are much more ideological than general voters. The Dem nominee has to win a sizable portion of the black vote, have decent showing with union voters and have an energized base of others(netroots etc.)

Obama can do that. Union voters, especially service unions are trending minority. He's doing a good job energizing some netroots support. Like I said, he may not win, but he certainly can win.

[Maple Leafs]

Hmm...

On the one hand, Obama sounds like "Osama", and that's bad. On the other hand, Barack sounds sort of military-ish, and that's good.

I'm stumped. Does he have a middle name that would help me decide one way or another?

[JPhillips]

His middle name is Hussein.

Really.

[Anthony]

I'm stumped. Does he have a middle name that would help me decide one way or another?

Milo

[amdaily]

His middle name is Hussein.

Really.

If M.L. really didn't know that, I'd be on the floor laughing!! :D

[Buccaneer]

If M.L. really didn't know that, I'd be on the floor laughing!! :D

I didn't know that either and when it was posted earlier, I thought it was a joke.

[Izulde]

I think this country would be ready for a black president long before it's ready for a female president.

I know for damn sure that I'd vote Republican before I'd vote Hillary.

[Daimyo]

Forget race or gender keeping Obama and Clinton out of the White House... when was the last time a senator was elected president? Kennedy?

[Subby]

Forget race or gender keeping Obama and Clinton out of the White House... when was the last time a senator was elected president? Kennedy?
Exactly. If the Dems don't get their shit together and put a better candidate out there then the Republicans can win with pretty much anyone. I sure wish Warner would reconsider.

[SFL Cat]

Well, there's always Biden for the Dems.

I hear black voters have really taken to him!

[Subby]

Now you are just being cruel :)

[stevew]

Exactly. If the Dems don't get their shit together and put a better candidate out there then the Republicans can win with pretty much anyone. I sure wish Warner would reconsider.

Me too. He's basically too rich to need any kind of special interest, which is nice for starters. And he did a damn good job when he was running VA, IMO. Especially after Gilmore left him like that.

[st.cronin]

Watch out for Bill Richardson. He's like Bill Clinton, only without all the girlfriends.

[Ryche]

His middle name is Hussein.

Really.

And I can guarantee if he won the Democratic nomination, the Republicans would be referring to him as Barack Hussein Obama every chance they got to remind the public of that fact.

I don't see any chance Giuliani gets the nomination from the Republicans considering how liberal he is on many issues. Right now I'd guess it will come down to a fight between McCain and Huckabee, I'm just not seeing other potential candidates with much of a shot.

[st.cronin]

I think there's an opening for McCain and/or Giuliani this time. The Republicans are arguably at their worst moment since Nixon left office - there's a lot of bad feeling INSIDE the party. I'm not at all convinced that it will be business as usual in the GOP.

[albionmoonlight]

Watch out for Bill Richardson. He's like Bill Clinton, only without all the girlfriends.

I like him as a dark horse.

If his name were Jose Rameriez, he would have no chance.

But he's got such a middle america name that I could see his Hispanic heritige not hurting him a lot with white voters (and, of course, helping him a ton with Hispanic voters).

Right now, I think that an Edwards/Richardson or Richardson/Edwards ticket might be the most winnable one that the Democrats could put up.

[st.cronin]

I like him as a dark horse.

If his name were Jose Rameriez, he would have no chance.

But he's got such a middle america name that I could see his Hispanic heritige not hurting him a lot with white voters (and, of course, helping him a ton with Hispanic voters).

Right now, I think that an Edwards/Richardson or Richardson/Edwards ticket might be the most winnable one that the Democrats could put up.

I don't think Edwards can win the general election. I think he's below Hillary in terms of electability. I would rate the Dems this way (for electability in a general election):

Gore
Vilsack
Richardson
Hillary
Edwards
Obama
Kucinic etc.

[albionmoonlight]

I don't think Edwards can win the general election. I think he's below Hillary in terms of electability. I would rate the Dems this way (for electability in a general election):

Gore
Vilsack
Richardson
Hillary
Edwards
Obama
Kucinic etc.

What makes you think that about Edwards? From what little I've seen of him recently, he seems to have lost that smarmy trial lawyer manner that plagued him four years ago.

Do you think that it is still there, or do you see something else in him?

[JPhillips]

Vilsack has no chance. He has no money, no organization and is terrible on television.

Rumors that I've read say that Richardson may have his own zipper problem.

[st.cronin]

What makes you think that about Edwards? From what little I've seen of him recently, he seems to have lost that smarmy trial lawyer manner that plagued him four years ago.

Do you think that it is still there, or do you see something else in him?

1. I think his positions are too liberal. I could be wrong, but I think he's well to the left of Obama and Hillary on issues both foreign policy and domestic.

2. He may have cleaned up a little bit, but he's never going to not be slick, in a way that turns enough people off that it's a negative.

Just my opinion. I know there are some democrats who think he's their best hope. I just don't see it. Vilsack would be a MUCH better choice if they want the White House.

[JPhillips]

Vilsack is to Dems as Dole is to Reps.

You may like his policies, but policies play very little role in a presidential election.

[st.cronin]

I wish Lieberman would run again. :(

[albionmoonlight]

Has Al Gore said that he is not running?

[Tyrith]

Al Gore would actually be a pretty good candidate if the Dems are just trying to win. Hillary is never going to work -- there are too many people in the middle and on the left that would just say HELL NO to her candidacy, and she's not going to pick up a ton of women voters from the right because they just don't like her positions. Obama is much less tainted now, and I personally like him, but he will be killed because of his associations with Islam and racial backlash. Gore, on the other hand, has picked up a lot of sympathy because of his movie and because of how the GWB presidency is going. He has name recognition and the middle doesn't completely loathe him. If Edwards was at the top of the ticket he'd be maimed by the right as a smarmy trial lawyer -- there's no way to escape it. Al Gore seems like the Dems' best bet if he decides to run.

[Passacaglia]

So no one thinks he's going to commit type of some extraordinary type of gaffe to eliminate himself?

If so, you're kidding yourselves. They guy just hasn't been around the block enough times. And personally, I can't wait 'til it happens.

Can I ask why you're looking forward to it so much?

[amdaily]

Can I ask why you're looking forward to it so much?

Because of the pedestal the media has put this guy on and that he's bought into it. Let's face it, if he were a white unremarkable first term Senator with little to distinguish himself before that, no one outside of IL would know or care about him.

[Maple Leafs]

On the subject of whether a black candidate could win, there was an article recently that argued that Obama is black, but not "black". Meaning he's not black in the sense that most Americans think of the term because he's not descended from slaves. The argument is that this would actually help him, since white people could feel good about voting for a "black" candidate without feeling threatened by him and all the associated guilt that comes with the ancestors of West African slaves.

[Bisbo]

Huckabee could be dangerous. For a conservative Christian, he is clean and articulate.

[stevew]

Huckabee could be dangerous. For a conservative Christian, he is clean and articulate.

From what little I've read about him, he seems pretty likeable and I'll probably support him in the primary. It will depend on who else runs, though, of course. Not a McCain fan so much, not a fan of Romney or Guiliani either. Somebody needs to save the party's soul, may as well be an outsider. The PA primary is probably so late again this time, so it won't matter(again) anyways.

[Drake]

If we ever elect a president named "Huckabee", I'm moving to Canada.

[albionmoonlight]

Instead of a debate, Obama and Huckabee need to have a "clean and articulate off."

Instead of asking a series of policy questions, the moderator could instead give the candidates difficult words to pronounce and time them while they engage in progresively more difficult tounge twisters.

In addition, each candidate could be asked obscure questions about personal grooming habits, and hidden cameras would demonstrate whether they actually washed their hands after using the bathroom prior to the contest.

It would certainly beat watching Bush stare straight ahead into the camera like a lost deer or Kerry making an ass of himself with amazingly awkward references to the sex life of the Vice President's family members.

[Butter]

I <3 Huckabee.

[Drake]

I <3 Huckabee.

Right before I posted that, I said to myself "Self, the first person who makes an I heart Huckabees joke will have to be murdered". Thanks for volunteering, Butter.

[Butter]

Sure thing, chief. :)

[Young Drachma]

Watch out for Bill Richardson. He's like Bill Clinton, only without all the girlfriends.

I think he's the true darkhorse in that Dem race.

[Klinglerware]

On the subject of whether a black candidate could win, there was an article recently that argued that Obama is black, but not "black". Meaning he's not black in the sense that most Americans think of the term because he's not descended from slaves. The argument is that this would actually help him, since white people could feel good about voting for a "black" candidate without feeling threatened by him and all the associated guilt that comes with the ancestors of West African slaves.

This phenomenon (which I'm not sure I buy, yet) has also been cited as a reason why Obama may not win over black voters so easily--because some voters may not consider him legitimately "American black" (because he is not decended from West Africans brought to the Western Hemisphere as slaves).

[larrymcg421]

I think he's the true darkhorse in that Dem race.

Clinton would not have won against a stronger Democratic field. There was no one in 1992 that matches up to Hilary or even Obama. I think Richardson will be the VP nominee.

[Warhammer]

I think ultimately Obama is playing for VP. I just get a feeling from everything that he is not eyeing the big prize. As far as who will get the Dem nomination, I think Edwards will get it, and the Edwards - Obama ticket is the scariest thing from a Republican perspective.

I think the best head of the ticket for Republicans is Huckabee. Everyone else has too many skeletons in their closet that will be exposed during the race.

[WVUFAN]

first off, you're wrong. you didn't say it. i did, long ago (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=616987&postcount=5).

secondly, Obama wouldn't slap Dean Houston. it's bad for mass appeal. Dean Houston has a lot of respect from black people - he was active in the urban community giving of his free time and a few of his closest friends on the team (Cleveland Browns) were black. they named him an honorary black man after his 4th season cuz he was down with the 'hood.

thirdly, you don't have enough posts to speak about Dean Houston. i don't know who you are or where you posted those couple hundred other posts, but you don't have enough FOFC cred to start dropping his name. that's enough out of you.

Dean Houston doesn't care about post counts.

As for Obama, I have reason enough to vote against him for his opinion on policies. I couldn't care less what his religion is.

[Synovia]

Exactly. If the Dems don't get their shit together and put a better candidate out there then the Republicans can win with pretty much anyone. I sure wish Warner would reconsider.

Our current republican president has what, a 22% aproval rating? Are you ANYONE wants another republican? I honestly think the dem's could put up a black, unwed, muslim women with children out of wedlock, and she'd still win.

[WVUFAN]

Our current republican president has what, a 22% aproval rating? Are you ANYONE wants another republican? I honestly think the dem's could put up a black, unwed, muslim women with children out of wedlock, and she'd still win.

I want another Republican as President. I'd vote for McCain in a second.

[Synovia]

This phenomenon (which I'm not sure I buy, yet) has also been cited as a reason why Obama may not win over black voters so easily--because some voters may not consider him legitimately "American black" (because he is not decended from West Africans brought to the Western Hemisphere as slaves).

Thinking that deeply into the motives of voters gives them a lot more credit than I think they deserve.

[Synovia]

WVUFan, then you must be in that 22%.

[WVUFAN]

WVUFan, then you must be in that 22%.

There's a difference between approval of a President (who is in the middle of an unpopular war) and the appeal of a Republican candidate not named Bush who has quite a number of good ideas.

An unpopular President doesn't mean the party he belongs to is unpopular too.

[Synovia]

WVUFan, thats a huge assumption to make. I dont think your average voter sees the two things any differently.

[Fonzie]

His middle name is Hussein.

Really.

And that reminds me of the words "who's sane."

I like that. He gets my vote.

[Warhammer]

I don't think party affiliation will have anything to do with it, if the Dems don't switch from their attack Bush at every chance. They are going to have to present an agenda for the presidency, and I think the Republicans will win that debate. The Dems won the Congress because they weren't Republicans, but I think two years with no ideas won't help them. Or, two years of failed ideas won't help either. But, if they can come up with some fresh issues and stump them, they have a shot.

The long and short is the same forces at work in 2006 do not mean that the Dems will win in 2008.

[Dutch]

So, some anti-Obama guy sends out an e-mail that makes 'republicans' all look like shit, Fox News gets bashed, CNN glorified, and Obama's now got big problems. So who is gaining anything from this?

[Klinglerware]

Synovia, while the reputation of the American voter for being relatively unsophisticated is probably well-deserved, I do think you are overstating their capacity to make (by whatever internal means) at least somewhat reasoned ordered preferences.

It is the people who choose not to vote (sadly, the vast majority of the voting-aged population in the US) that deserves your ire. The minority of the population that does vote regularly are probably more likely to take the time to make some attempt at a reasoned voting decision, since they already are incented enough to vote in the first place.

[JPhillips]

They are going to have to present an agenda for the presidency

I can't beat this drum enough. They don't have to present anything. They need a likable candidate with a shitload of money and a good rapid response team.

[dawgfan]

I can't beat this drum enough. They don't have to present anything. They need a likable candidate with a shitload of money and a good rapid response team.
I'm not sure this is true this time - the Iraq situation changes the equation IMO. Whoever ends up as the candidates will have to present a plan for Iraq that the public can embrace, though we all know that whatever they promise in the campaign is not binding if they get elected.

[Warhammer]

I can't beat this drum enough. They don't have to present anything. They need a likable candidate with a shitload of money and a good rapid response team.

I disagree. They were able to get Congress based upon this, and any Republican candidate worth his salt can exploit that.

There is a difference between running Congressional campaigns and Presidential campaigns. In Congressional campaigns, if things are going well, you can tie yourself to the Pres, and probably get elected. If things are going poorly, you campaign against the party in power and talk about how you are going to do things different. That is what happened last year.

Presidential campaigns are different in that you have to present an agenda. What is your position on Soc. Sec.? What are you going to do about crime? What is your position about the US' role in international politics? You can't just say, we're going to do it smarter, better, etc. You need to tell the electorate how you are going to do it.

[JPhillips]

I don't think so. Bush in 2000 presented an education policy and a general position on cutting taxes. Everything else was left to generalities. Gore presented many more specific policy options. People voted for Bush because they trusted him and liked him. How many times did people talk about liking Bush more?

Every presidential election since at least FDR the more likable candidate has won. That isn't to say that policy doesn't matter for any voters. The general dynamic of 40% definite R, 40% definite D and 20% up for grabs holds for almost every presidential election. The people who decide the election, that 20% uncommitted, tend to vote for a president based on their gut, not policy analysis.

And that makes some degree of sense to me. Afterall most of what a president will have to deal with is unknown during an election. The centerpieces of Bush's presidency weren't on the table in 2000. People want a president that they can believe in. Presenting detailed policy positions will almost certainly lose a presidential election.

The keys are likability, a ton of cash and a good rapid response team. Policy would at best be fourth on the list.

[Peregrine]

I think the story that Newsday is running (http://tinyurl.com/39me4s) about Giuliani not marking his party alignment on a form is pretty interesting. Of course it could be a typo or a meaningless mistake, but with all the speculation that "America's Mayor" might bolt from the GOP and make a run as an independent where it's assumed he'd be more electable...hmm, interesting.

[SFL Cat]

^^^That would be interesting. Initially one would think it might hurt the Republicans if he ran as an independent, but then it could also hurt the Dems since Giuliani is conservative on fiscal and defense matters, but liberal on social issues important to them.

[BrianD]

I don't think so. Bush in 2000 presented an education policy and a general position on cutting taxes. Everything else was left to generalities. Gore presented many more specific policy options. People voted for Bush because they trusted him and liked him. How many times did people talk about liking Bush more?

Every presidential election since at least FDR the more likable candidate has won. That isn't to say that policy doesn't matter for any voters. The general dynamic of 40% definite R, 40% definite D and 20% up for grabs holds for almost every presidential election. The people who decide the election, that 20% uncommitted, tend to vote for a president based on their gut, not policy analysis.

And that makes some degree of sense to me. Afterall most of what a president will have to deal with is unknown during an election. The centerpieces of Bush's presidency weren't on the table in 2000. People want a president that they can believe in. Presenting detailed policy positions will almost certainly lose a presidential election.

The keys are likability, a ton of cash and a good rapid response team. Policy would at best be fourth on the list.

I was going to argue against this, but I think I just argued myself into agreeing with you. Elections between two first-term candidates seem to be more about likeability while elections against a sitting President seem to have issues matter more.

I do think though that the Dems need to make some mention of policies though. They pushed the "We're not Bush" position well enough for Congresional seats, but "We're not Republicans" won't work as a Presidential stance. Some position must be put forth. Likeability can't do everything.

[dawgfan]

I was going to argue against this, but I think I just argued myself into agreeing with you. Elections between two first-term candidates seem to be more about likeability while elections against a sitting President seem to have issues matter more.

I do think though that the Dems need to make some mention of policies though. They pushed the "We're not Bush" position well enough for Congresional seats, but "We're not Republicans" won't work as a Presidential stance. Some position must be put forth. Likeability can't do everything.
The difference though is that the U.S. isn't usually in the middle of a military occupation of another country during an election without an incumbent. While the above theory holds true in most situation, I believe that Iraq modifies the equation to a significant extent. Unless something dramatic happens between now and the election, what to do about Iraq will be the biggest issue that the Presidential candidates have to address.

[JPhillips]

dawgfan: I don't disagree that it will be a big issue, but I'm cynical enough to believe that a real policy proscription for what to do in Iraq will be a mistake. The candidate that makes it clear exactly what he/she will do will lose. The key will be to dance around the issue so that as many people as possible think your advocating the position they agree with.

[PSUColonel]

dawgfan: I don't disagree that it will be a big issue, but I'm cynical enough to believe that a real policy proscription for what to do in Iraq will be a mistake. The candidate that makes it clear exactly what he/she will do will lose. The key will be to dance around the issue so that as many people as possible think your advocating the position they agree with.

:rolleyes: just the kind of strong backboned leader I want for this nation.

[JPhillips]

PSU: Bush did the same thing in 2004.

[Raiders Army]

I'm all for a minority President, but Blacks aren't the majority minority anymore. Carlos Mencia for President!

[PSUColonel]

PSU: Bush did the same thing in 2004.

and that makes it right how exactly??

[JPhillips]

Right has very little to do with winning elections.