Can anyone stop the QB killing [Archive] - Front Office Football Central

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Joker

02-08-2007, 12:21 PM

Ever year I draft a QB and every year I kill a QB. I never draft above 1-25 and I usually take a QB, round 2 or 3. The QB could be rated 15-71 or 8-59 but after a few years with me, he ends up just like the rest.
A stinking Ryan Leaf doll. Rated 35-35

Can anyone stop the madness?

gstelmack

02-08-2007, 12:44 PM

Hire a mentor. Get an O-coordinator who is good with QBs.

Joker

02-08-2007, 12:57 PM

Hire a mentor. Get an O-coordinator who is good with QBs.
1. done
2. done

this is how it goes.
15-59 draft
19-49 year 2
25-45 year 3
35-35 year 4.......thats how it goes.

No big deal it happens 1x or 2x or 5x...but it happens every year.

CraigSca

02-08-2007, 12:58 PM

Just like in real life, babes.

Joker

02-08-2007, 01:02 PM

thanks for the help

Northwood_DK

02-08-2007, 01:10 PM

What kind of quarterbacks are you looking for? Maybe you pick the “wrong” guys based on old wisdom from FOF2004.

They need a mentor and playing time. This has actually always surprised me a bit. Why are we not rewarded for having the patience to have a young quarterback sit on the bench and learn like in real life?

Summer league.

Joker

02-08-2007, 01:15 PM

Joker

02-08-2007, 01:24 PM

Now in SP I do see guys show up sometimes on the FA market rated 17-61 and these guys are 9year vets. I do not know how they keep their future numbers intact and so high when my young QB's future just FREEFALL.

Vinatieri for Prez

02-08-2007, 01:28 PM

How is your scout rated for QBs? Are you always picking high volatility guys?

Ksyrup

02-08-2007, 01:34 PM

I usually take a QB, round 2 or 3.

That's your problem right there. Find a stud and trade up to top 3 to get him.

molson

02-08-2007, 01:56 PM

Is this true of other positions as well? Do we need to start our 20/60 2nd and 3rd round CBs and WRs right off the bat?

dj_morton

02-08-2007, 02:18 PM

Is this true of other positions as well? Do we need to start our 20/60 2nd and 3rd round CBs and WRs right off the bat?

I usually do, if not I definately have the CB's starting in the Nickle/Dime formations..Rookie WR's, atleast a #3 slot

Joker

02-08-2007, 02:42 PM

How is your scout rated for QBs? Are you always picking high volatility guys?

I take very under-rated or under-rated guys.
guys that look like they may be good someday..
I will note the volatility as I test this

Subby

02-08-2007, 02:47 PM

Maybe you just aren't cut out for this game...

Ben E Lou

02-08-2007, 05:10 PM

Shouldn't be too hard.Credit for not making someone else say it.

Vinatieri for Prez

02-08-2007, 06:08 PM

I take very under-rated or under-rated guys.
guys that look like they may be good someday..
I will note the volatility as I test this

This may not sound quite right, but try drafting the "as scouted" or "overrated guys." Seriously.

RedKingGold

02-08-2007, 06:36 PM

Maybe you just aren't cut out for this game...

Please don't discourage him. He may take up prostitution as a replacement hobby.

Raiders Army

02-08-2007, 06:40 PM

Try starting over in 1970 and draft a QB you know is going to be good.

larrymcg421

02-08-2007, 06:56 PM

You definitely need to trade up. In my current dynasty, here are the best QB's (excluding those who were active before the dynasty started), and where they were drafted...

Greg Winslett - 1(2)
Preston Davison - 1(1)
Kirk Johnston - 1(3)
Brady Quinn - 1(1)
Lewis Hanson - 1(2)
Keith Tanner - 1(3)
Alex Haag - 1(1)
Brian Brohm - 1(4)
Jermaine McConnell - 1(14)

The highest rated late round pick is Wesley Robinson who was picked 6(3) and is rated 47/51. You can try going after guys like this, but variance will be very high and it could take a long time to find one that pans out.

MrBigglesworth

02-08-2007, 08:55 PM

Is that true for everyone's leagues? That's not fun nor realistic.

Masked

02-08-2007, 11:55 PM

Is that true for everyone's leagues? That's not fun nor realistic.

Top 10 QBs in my current league (year is 2034)
1.1
1.2
4.20
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.20
6.11
1.20
1.1

So my league looks more balanced and of course none are on my team.

Narcizo

02-09-2007, 02:34 AM

You're picking crap quarterbacks. Don't listen to your scouts about quarterbacks because, for some reason, scouts can't pick quarterbacks outside of the top half of the first round to save their lives.

If you want to pick blindly in later rounds you might as well target no-combine guys. At least there's a 1 in 20 odd chance that they won't bomb.

Dutch

02-09-2007, 03:08 AM

Please don't discourage him. He may take up prostitution as a replacement hobby.

Only if he's married.

Joker

02-09-2007, 07:55 AM

Let the whoring begin!

Narcizo

02-09-2007, 08:13 AM

I've just looked. My league, 2024, in terms of current ability

1 (1)
1 (1)
1 (3)
1 (1)
1 (3)
1 (4)
1 (1)
1 (4)
1 (1)
1 (1)

Which is a bit depressing. You have to go down to joint 12th best (53/53 both) for someone outside of the top five. (5th and 7th round picks).

On the plus side the 5th round pick guy rated 106 last year in his first year as a starter, and only narrowly lost to the top rated QB led Ravens in the Conference Finals.

Ksyrup

02-09-2007, 01:17 PM

I hadn't looked for or seen the evidence to support it, but that's been my view from day 1 and how I have played the game. Perhaps this is something Jim can tweak to give us a little more volatility at the top of the draft re QBs.

Then again, I've noticed (anecdotal evidence at best) that it's unusual to draft in the top 8 or so and not get an absolute stud - not only a guy with high potential, but usually a guy who is about 2/3 the way there in current ratings and who is usually near maxed-out by the beginning of the second year and certainly, by the third. So this might not be limited to just QBs, but it's the most obvious position we see it happening with.

AlexB

02-09-2007, 02:26 PM

FWIW, my top 10 QBs (current ability), in a league with a simmed 15 year history...

1. 1(1)
2. 1(2)
3. 1(2)
4. 1(1)
5. 1(10)
6. 1(1)
7. 1(1)
8. 1(1)
9. 1(5)
10. 5(29)

RedKingGold

02-09-2007, 02:40 PM

PiemasterUK

02-09-2007, 03:07 PM

AlexB

02-09-2007, 03:07 PM

Can you guys do me a favor and list me who the best quarterbacks on in your SP dynasties, STATISTIC-WISE

I'll be you that there will be some quarterback who won't show up on the overall current/future talent list who will have put up big numbers b/c of scouting error and the fact that stats mean more to a players ability than they have in versions past.

I guess QB rating of the qualifiers in career stats is the way to go, using only FOF drafted QBs (all starts regular season only)

1. 1(1) - 6th year, 77 starts, 61-28, 1 ring, League MVP twice, Offensive PoY twice, All league 1st QB 3 times, 4th all time QB rating, 3rd all time yards per attempt

2. 6(26) - 14th year, 90 starts, 0 in his 1st 6 years, then a starter all way through 2001-2006, 51-44, 2 rings, Bowl MVP

3. 6(14) - 4th year, 14 starts (all in the last year), 12-5

4. 1(1) - 13th year, 171 starts, 115-71, 1 ring, League MVP, Bowl MVP, Offensive PoY, All league 1st QB & 2nd QB [alll awards once only], 4th all time attempts, 1st all time completions, 3rd all time yards, 5th all time TDs, 4th all time 300yds passing

5. 7(29) - 8th year, 61 starts, 30-33 credited record, red flag

6. 1(2) - 7th year, 87 starts, 50-40. 5th all time yds per attempt

7. 1(2) - 5th year, 60 starts, 47-19, 1 ring, Bowl MVP

8. 1(3) - 10 years (retired), 111 starts, 71-41-1, League MVP, Offensive PoY, All League 1st QB

9. 1(7) - 14th year, 178 starts, 123-70, 3 rings, League MVP, 5th all time yards, 3rd all time TDs

10. 6(31) - 12th year, 104 starts (didn't throw a pass 1st two seasons, then started for 2 seasons, back up for a couple of years, then starter again for new team last 5 years), 68-43, All league 2nd QB

So stat wise, lower round picks are representing, and winning rings, although individual awards are predominantly held by the high draftees. I'd say that this is pretty realistic - in a good system a lower drafted QB can win championships, but more naturally talented guys will set records

Joker

02-09-2007, 03:27 PM

year 2028: This is the best QB in the History of my sp game. The reason I signed him he was rated 40-61, his stats were 21td's 5int. No way a human gm ever lets this guy on to the market.
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a221/1985bustinout/QBkiller.jpg

Axxon

02-09-2007, 04:36 PM

I'm not at home but my current game has an unusual situation.

I have a scout who is good at QB and a OC who is average at development. I traded away a high priced QB who didn't fit my scheme thinking I'd get his replacement in R1 but the QB went first pick.

I did get an exceptional RB which I needed and I had a number 2 QB I liked that I picked in round three. This guy started as a 19/61 and has been in steady drop.

He has played regularly, has a mentor but no summer league. The thing is, he wins games and puts up numbers. He took a 2-14 team ( who wasn't that good, trust me ) to the playoffs and the next season he lead us to a 12-2 regular season record ( I foolishly started the mentor as he was Angry but after going 1-1 and being unimpressive, I benched him ) and lead us to the super bowl. He was rated 25/54.

Now, season three and he's rated 28/44. What to do? The guy is 26-8 for us and has stats which are in the top ten both years. Still, 28/44. Do I look for a replacement as his contract is up soon or do I go strictly with the results on the field.

I never know whether to trust my scouts or not with QB's. That was said above and I really do believe it.

timmynausea

02-09-2007, 04:39 PM

year 2028: This is the best QB in the History of my sp game. The reason I signed him he was rated 40-61, his stats were 21td's 5int. No way a human gm ever lets this guy on to the market.

Not saying it should happen often, but Marc Bulger was 2nd in the NFL in passing yards last year, and he was cut by the Saints a few years ago. Kitna was probably cut at some point in his career, too. Johnny Unitas was cut by the Steelers. He wound up having a decent career.

MartinD

02-09-2007, 04:59 PM

For the record, here are the top ten QBs in the real life NFL (by passing yards last year) along with their draft round and position.

1. Drew Brees - 2(1)
2. Peyton Manning - 1(1)
3. Marc Bulger - 6(2)
4. Jon Kitna - Undrafted?
5. Carson Palmer - 1(1)
6. Brett Favre - 2(6)
7. Tom Brady - 6(33)
8. Ben Roethlisberger - 1(11)
9. Philip Rivers - 1(4)
10. Chad Pennington - 1(18)

Am fairly sure that Kitna was undrafted - he bounced around a few teams early in his career (was with the Seahawks for a while IIRC), and played a season in Europe back in the late '90s (pretty successfully, too).

In RL, most of the top QBs were high draft picks, but not always (for example, Montana and Simms were 3rd-rounders, Marino dropped to the bottom of the first) - FOF seems to be fairly realistic from this point of view. The thing that isn't realistic is the high potential ratings that all rookie QBs seem to get - this is like saying that borderline NFL prospects have the potential to be mid-level starters (i.e. guys like Chris Leak, Jordan Palmer and Tyler Palko, to pick three names from the middle of NFL Draft Countdown's QB ratings, who are expected to be mid- to late-round selections, will be more than career backups or game-manager type QBs).

Martin

beargrowlz

02-09-2007, 05:01 PM

He took a 2-14 team ( who wasn't that good, trust me ) to the playoffs and the next season he lead us to a 12-2 regular season record ( I foolishly started the mentor as he was Angry but after going 1-1 and being unimpressive, I benched him ) and lead us to the super bowl. He was rated 25/54.

Now, season three and he's rated 28/44. What to do? The guy is 26-8 for us and has stats which are in the top ten both years. Still, 28/44. Do I look for a replacement as his contract is up soon or do I go strictly with the results on the field.

Given the results he's produced I'd stick with the guy who got me to the Super Bowl. The guy wins.

That being said, until this year, Trent Dilfer had won a Super Bowl and Peyton Manning hadn't.

Bottom line is, if after analyzing your team, you think he is one of the main reasons you win and went to the Super Bowl, stick with him. If you think your team won despite him, find a better quarterback and get better.

Axxon

02-09-2007, 06:06 PM

Given the results he's produced I'd stick with the guy who got me to the Super Bowl. The guy wins.

That being said, until this year, Trent Dilfer had won a Super Bowl and Peyton Manning hadn't.

Bottom line is, if after analyzing your team, you think he is one of the main reasons you win and went to the Super Bowl, stick with him. If you think your team won despite him, find a better quarterback and get better.

I agree but I'm going to likely have to give him mad money and a long contract. Hard to do that with a guy who's ratings are crashing harder than Wall Street in '29. Know what I mean.

Vinatieri for Prez

02-09-2007, 07:18 PM

year 2028: This is the best QB in the History of my sp game. The reason I signed him he was rated 40-61, his stats were 21td's 5int. No way a human gm ever lets this guy on to the market.

Drew Brees last year in the NFL anyone?

-Mojo Jojo-

02-09-2007, 10:36 PM

Here are the top 10 by career yardage (as of 2034 of my SP league), counting only game-generated QB's:

1(1) 60273 yds, 83.2 rating
1(1) 57480 yds, 77.8 rating
1(1) 54503 yds, 90.5 rating
1(1) 53152 yds, 73.2 rating
4(21) 49728 yds, 83.4 rating
1(1) 49245 yds, 92.7 rating
1(4) 49033 yds, 88.3 rating*
1(2) 48949 yds, 83.5 rating
1(2) 47886 yds, 79.1 rating
1(3) 45366 yds, 83.7 rating*

* = not yet retired

And top 10 currently in the league by scouting rating:

1(4)
1(7)
1(1)
1(3)
1(2)
1(1)
1(3)
1(16)
1(1)
1(14)

Pretty top-heavy. I already started one thread on the difficulty in getting decent QB's in the new game. Basically you need to get to the top of the draft. Even that is not a guarantee. 14 QB's have gone number 1 in the draft in this league, 3 of them were total busts (this number might actually be too low, realistically speaking).

I tried for many seasons in to draft QB's in the late 1st round and 2nd and 3rd rounds, have always had a good QB scout and coach, always with a mentor, utilizing the summer league, and giving promising players game time. This method pretty reliably produces QB's with an actual rating of 45-50 (by pretty reliable I mean about one in three of my draftees gets there). None have gone any higher than that. I have nonetheless had a good deal of success with lower rated QB's by surrounding them with talent. I just won back-to-back titles with a 45-rated QB who had QB ratings of 97.5 and 103.0 those two seasons (although I didn't pass much). I've just come to accept that I'm not going to have a great QB in this game...

BTW, I would be interested to see a similar study of RB's. I haven't had a great deal of luck drafting good players there either. It doesn't appear to be quite as stratified as QB's, but there are an awful lot of top 5 picks in both the top current scouted RB's and career rushing leaders in my league as well. Compare, say, to WR where in the top 10 there are 3 2nd rounders, a 4th, an undrafted FA, and a couple late 1st rounders.

AlexB

02-10-2007, 06:12 AM

Drew Brees last year in the NFL anyone?

I immediately thought this as well, but he was 24/14 when I checked last night, so not quite as dominant. But not far off.

zlionsfan

02-16-2007, 11:45 AM

Am fairly sure that Kitna was undrafted - he bounced around a few teams early in his career (was with the Seahawks for a while IIRC), and played a season in Europe back in the late '90s (pretty successfully, too).
That's right, he was undrafted. He's only played with the Seahawks, Bengals, and Lions in the NFL, though. Two years starting in Seattle (plus two backup seasons), three years warming Carson's seat (plus two backup seasons), and one year in Detroit. (10th in FO's DPAR this year among QBs, so not so bad. He had a bad final season in Seattle, then 30th, 19th, and 7th as a starter in Cincinnati.)

It's hard to figure out things like potential and how they should apply in sims. There's no way to know for sure if, say, Ryan Leaf was a 19/81 but never developed, or if he really was something like a 19/24 and San Diego's scouts didn't project him correctly. It does seem as though there are more QBs with potential than you'd expect.

TimL

02-22-2007, 11:30 AM

Joker

02-22-2007, 12:26 PM

I'd like to thank everyone for their data. This problem has been solved.

albionmoonlight

02-22-2007, 01:49 PM

I'd like to thank everyone for their data. This problem has been solved.

How?

WebEwbank

02-22-2007, 05:52 PM

Agree about the need to trade up to get the 1st or 2nd-rated QB in the draft class.

The next-largest determinant I've seen has been playing time - not mentors and not OC.

If you get a stud it often makes sense to trash/trade/disable QBs who currently rate higher and just play him. I've often had the really good ones bounce to the high side of their projections in 1-2 years.

In this game I've found that the QB is about seven times more important than the RB...