2007 Road to the Roses - Fantasy Horseracing Challenge

[QuikSand]

hxxp://www.roadtotheroses.com/

It appears they have turned this into a fee-based contest for those seeking real prizes, but they will still allow free entries and will keep track of your scores if you prefer to play that way.

Idea is pretty simple - pick a stable of horses, a couple jockeys and trainers, and manage the lineup through the prep season up to and including the Kentucky Derby, basically like a fantasy league. Accumulate points, and demonstrate your brilliance. I have a decent-enough Ky Derby sweatshirt lying around somewhere from a past year's effort, and have finished in the top couple percent more often than not.


Anyone who's interested, feel free to either assemble a stable and report here... or do some fishing around and share good resources for selections.

[weegeebored]

For those of you who really enjoy handicapping the thoroughbreds (or want to learn how) or even standardbreds (harness) there's a great board that you might want to check out -- paceadvantage.com. Check out the forums. Many people willing to help, although there are some real asshats who post there.

[FishFan]

Here's my stable:

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (won Sam Davis on 2/17)
HARD SPUN (a wide 4th in yesterday's Southwest Stakes)
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (goes in the GII Fountain of Youth on 3/3)
DRUMS OF THUNDER (also running in FoY on 3/3)
FOREFATHERS (probably for the GII Hutcheson on 3/3)
ADORE THE GOLD (deciding on GII Hutcheson or GII FoY on 3/3)
GREAT HUNTER (pointed to the GIII Bob Lewis Stakes on 3/3)
SUMMER DOLDRUMS (should go in the Gotham on 3/10)
CIRCULAR QUAY (a troubled 5th in the GIII Risen Star on 2/10 after nearly falling down; pointed towards the GII Louisiana Derby on 3/10)
LIQUIDITY (O'Neill sending this one to the LA Derby instead of Risen Star winner NOTIONAL)

Jockeys:

COREY NAKATANI (O'Neill and Sadler's go-to guy; he'll have lots of serious mounts throughout the prep schedule)
JOHN VELASQUEZ (one of Pletcher's go-to guys)

Trainers:

DOUG O'NEILL (NOTIONAL, GREAT HUNTER, LIQUIDITY, COBALT BLUE among others)
TODD PLETCHER (23 runners nominated, ANY GIVEN SATURDAY, CIRCULAR QUAY, RAVEL, SCAT DADDY, MERITOCRACY, etc.)

I picked up 10 points in the first race of the year, hitting the horse/jockey/trainer combo in the Sam Davis. Then, was disappointed with HARD SPUN's performance in the Southwest.

I left out STREET SENSE, RAVEL, and NOTIONAL for various reasons. STREET SENSE hasn't run since winner the BC Juvenile in November and may use the Hutcheson as a warm-up (not an ideal distance, locale for the late-running 3yo). RAVEL's connections have hinted they will skip March altogether and use the Santa Anita Derby as this runner's lone prep. If that's the case, I can pick up both of these runners in the first supplemental draft. NOTIONAL, who I also have a future wager on, will wait until 3/17 for his next start, the San Felipe at Santa Anita.

[FishFan]

Oh, other horses I like, but may have distance limitations:

E Z WARRIOR
SCAT DADDY
BUFFALO MAN
DAY PASS
STORMELLO
STORM IN MAY

[FishFan]

I don't know if any one else is playing, but a big weekend on tap. As excepted, I have five runners going this weekend in the three graded stakes:

Fountain of Youth
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
ADORE THE GOLD
DRUMS OF THUNDER

Hutcheson
FOREFATHERS

Bob Lewis Stakes
GREAT HUNTER

The latter is the key for me as I have the O'Neill/Nakatani connections of GREAT HUNTER, as well. If he's fresh, he should trounce this field of wannabes.

[FishFan]

Well, I hit the one I had to hit with GREAT HUNTER in the Bob Lewis. The 3yo colts looked good in his debut and should improve on that winning effort.

'NOBIZ' flunked his start and DRUMS OF THUNDER looked terrible. ADORE THE GOLD ran a decent race from a near-impossible post to finish 4th.

In the Huthcehson, FOREFATHERS was basically left at the gate and was a non-factor throughout.

It's on to the Louisiana Derby and Gotham Stakes next week, where I have LIQUIDITY, CIRCULAR QUAY, and SUMMER DOLDRUMS running.

[FishFan]

I'm kicking myself for taking FOREFATHERS and DRUMS OF THUNDER over STORMELLO and SCAT DADDY. The latter two were my last two horses I threw out of my stable. However, knowing Nick Zito, FOREFATHERS will resurface somewhere in three weeks to get another shot at the Derby. In the Hutcheson, he was basically left at the gate and lost all chance.

Anyway, on to the next round of stakes races:

Gotham Stakes @ Aqueduct
Louisiana Derby @ Fairgrounds
El Camino Real Derby @ Bay Meadows

Two horses are key for me this week, LIQUIDITY in the La. Derby and SUMMER DOLDRUMS in the Gotham. LIQUIDITY is another O'Neill runner with Nakatani aboard, so I'm looking for the horse-trainer-jockey trifecta. I also have CIRCULAR QUAY in this one with the Pletcher-Velasquez trifecta, but I imagine everyone has the Pletcher/Velasquez combo. Being just outside the top 1000 at this point, a win by LIQUIDITY should allow me to jump more spots than a win by CIRCULAR QUAY would.

SUMMER DOLDRUMS *should* win the Gotham and he's another runner that probably doesn't appear in every stable out there and should allow me to jump some spots as well. I like how the rest of my stable is filling out down the road:

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY: Tampa Bay Derby 3/17
HARD SPUN: Lane's End 3/24
ADORE THE GOLD: Florida Derby 3/31
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ: Wood Memorial 4/7
GREAT HUNTER: Bluegrass Stakes 4/14

The first supplemental draft is coming up after this weekend's races, so I'll look to fill in runners that are probably in the G1 and G2 races. RAVEL, NOTIONAL, and STREET SENSE are notable runners I've left out of my stable thus far. RAVEL and NOTIONAL could both end up in the Santa Anita Derby and are logical choices for me, being trained by Pletcher and O'Neill, respectively.

We'll see what happens after the dust clears this weekend and see who is pointing where late next week before making my supplemental choices.

[FishFan]

First, a quick recap from this past weekend's action:

LOUISIANA DERBY
Just when I was about to label CIRCULAR QUAY as the next coming of DOLLAR BILL (great talent, lots of excuses), CIRCULAR QUAY proves that he is a legitimate Derby threat with a great win at Fairgrounds, posting a 102 Beyer. KETCHIKAN ran a tough 2nd while my other horse, LIQUIDITY was too close to a quick pace and fell to 5th. O'Neill said he was too cocky/lazy with this one and hopefully, he'll rebound in the Santa Anita Derby. In any event, I'll take the points for CIRCULAR QUAY, Pletcher, and JohnV (as I'm sure everyone else did).

GOTHAM STAKES
Another Pletcher horse, COWTOWN CAT, won this terrible race as SUMMER DOLDRUMS managed a disappointing third place finish in race his trainer was hoping for a low Beyer. He got it as the winner took this one with an 88, the slowest Gotham winner since Beyers were introduced. I picked up the 3rd place and trainer points in this one.

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY
BWANA BULL continues on his Derby trail, beating a group of 2nd- and 3rd-tier runners.

So, my 35 points this weekend give me 100 for the contest, which is good enough for a top-1000 spot for now and just outside the top 200 in the race for the cash prize (60% of a $20K+ pool).

However, we are at a critical juncture as the contest enters the 2nd phase and the 1st of two supplemental drafts, where I can choose to add three horses (or none and pick five in the next draft in late April).

I am pondering two options right now:

OPTION 1 - Go after scores in this weekend's races and hope to keep those runners on the Derby path. The likely additions would be STREET SENSE (Tampa Bay Derby), TEUFLESBERG (Rebel), and COBALT BLUE (San Felipe). That would give me three runners this weekend (with ANY GIVEN SATURDAY already in my stable and running in the Tampa Bay Derby) with pretty good coverage in the later races.

OPTION 2 - Add runners already pointing towards the later grade 1 races. Here, I would add NOTIONAL (Florida Derby), RAVEL (Santa Anita Derby), and SAM P. (Illinois Derby). This would guarantee wide coverage in the later races while losing exposure in this weekend's races.

What I'll probably do is go with some sort of hybrid, bypassing the additional grade III runners this weekend and sticking with COBALT BLUE, the logical choice in a GII race (and trained by O'Neill), the San Felipe. Then, I would add NOTIONAL and RAVEL, who are both pointing to Grade I races at this time and are trained by my two chosen trainers, O'Neill and Pletcher.

Of course, I'll wait until entries are posted before making decisions. More to come later this week...

[FishFan]

Okay, another update for anyone who might actually be reading this...

For this past weekend's races, I added three horses, implementing a mix of the two options listed above. I went with STREET SENSE, COBALT BLUE, and NOTIONAL.

Tampa Bay Derby
STREET SENSE and ANY GIVEN SATURDAY dueled all the way through the stretch with STREET SENSE winning on a head-bob. I could have had the trainer-jockey points had ANY GIVEN SATURDAY taken the race, but I was pleased with the 1-2 finish with a couple of horses who have legitimate chances of winning the Derby.

San Felipe Stakes
COBALT BLUE basically wired a field that featured AIR COMMANDER, Baffert's last chance to make the Derby (he finished 2nd).

In addition, CURLIN won the Rebel Stakes and SONG OF NAVARONE took the Winstar Derby. I did not have any runners in those two.

Anyway, my 31 points moved me within 25 points of top place for the money, roughly $13K to the winner. I'm ~150th overall.

More coming later...

[QuikSand]

I'm reading, as I am following your stable vicariously to make up for my oversight/laziness and lack of building my own this year.

I watched this weekend's races, and was duly impressed with the two in the Tampa Bay Derby (which used to be solely for third-tier wannabes). ANY GIVEN SATURDAY might be the one to watch coming out of this race, but both looked really sharp.

I thought CURLIN looked visually impressive, but I haven't see a speed fig for him -- maybe the field was winded while he ran on. He looked sharp to me.

I still really like CIRCULAR QUAY -- and this last race showed me that he remains in good form. Lots and lots of talent there.

[FishFan]

Thanks for reading!

I didn't get to update prior to last weekend because of a new job and a cross-town move, but I'm back with a recap of last week's races and a look ahead to the Florida Derby, the first Grade I event on this year's schedule.

HARD SPUN and FOREFATHERS were active last week for me and it was a bittersweet result for my stable. FOREFATHERS was a non-factor in his second Derby prep and appears he doesn't want anything to do with nine furlongs (let alone 10). If my memory serves me well, I believe he finished dead last. However, HARD SPUN tracked the early leaders (a not too fast pace) and showed he can handle the Polytrack as he pulled away in the stretch. Maybe he really didn't like the Oaklawn surface.

Anyway, the 12 points for the Grade II win shaved two more points off my defecit from first place (for the money) and I jumped up into the top 20 overall.

As for this weekend, the only real scoring race is the Florida Derby (the other two events are a listed affair at seven panels and the "international" Derby in Dubai). I have two runners in this one, but neither of the two likely favorites. ADORE THE GOLD, a 4th place finished in the Fountain of Youth returns to Gulfstream while NOTIONAL comes back after seven weeks off following his Risen Star victory in Louisiana. The latter worked six furlongs in 1:12 and some change recently and I like his tactical speed. He'll sit off ADORE THE GOLD and STORMELLO, take charge entering the stretch and will have enough left in the tank to hold off SCAT DADDY. Hopefully, ADORE THE GOLD, who's been working well himself and making his second start around two turns, will show some improvement and hit the board.

Anyway, I feel really good about my chances coming down the stretch. I have all the major races covered except maybe the Arkansas Derby and I believe I already have the Derby winner somewhere in my stable. I'll use my last two supplemental picks to try to find a winner in the Lexington and/or Withers stakes between the final round of Derby preps and the first Saturday in May.

[FishFan]

In the Florida Derby, SCAT DADDY raced much closer to the pace than usual and NOTIONAL fought unsuccessfully to catch him in the stretch as the early speed died (ADORE THE GOLD finished way out of it and STORMELLO held fourth). SCAT DADDY looks like a legitimate Derby contender, but I am not too discouraged with NOTIONAL's second after a seven week layoff. I won't burn my Derby future wager on that one just yet.

Looking at today's races, I have five runners going, but not CIRCULAR QUAY, who was expected to run in the Wood. Instead he'll train right up to the Derby with eight weeks between races. In his place, I get ANY GIVEN SATURDAY who will face two other runners from my stable, SUMMER DOLDRUMS and NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ. I'd like to sweep the trainer/jockey and top three spots in this Grade 1 to get back into the contest (I'm currently 36 points out of first).

In the Illinois Derby, I have the likely favorite, COBALT BLUE and I'm looking for trainer points here, as well, with Doug O'Neill. Finally, in the Santa Anita Derby, it's LIQUIDITY, another O'Neill trainee trying to score points for my barn and stamp his Derby ticket after a poor running in the Louisiana Derby.

So, a big day by O'Neill means a big day for me after falling out of the top 200for the money. I scored just 17 points last week Florida Derby and not selecting SCAT DADDY for my stable might be my ultimate downfall (27 points in two races).