parallel universe stars

[Sgran]

I'm thinking about running a historical SP. I'm curious about how well the X-factor kicks in. Please tell me about obscure players who became superstars in your historical league, preferably players that were not on your team. Real life stars who became busts would also be interesting.

[jzicc]

with x factor on, there are many stars who become busts --- Not a real educated or empirical study- but if players are normally an 8 or 9 (out of 10) -- the range with x factor on for those players is more like 4-10.

[Sgran]

Do you have any good examples?

[michael1123]

I kept X factor off and drafted Scott Mitchell with my 4th round pick in my first draft (started with the Lions in Barry's rookie season).

I mainly picked him to try and give current starter Rodney Peete some competition / be a backup guy. My scouts liked him but I was a bit weary of taking him sooner. Maybe he'd end up being better than Peete (25/49), but I really picked him more to be my backup.

But lo and behold, after training camp he was 38/70. 4 years later he's 70/70, has won back to back superbowls, has been superbowl MVP in both, and is currently trying to win his 3rd in a row after upsetting the 49ers in the divisional round of the playoffs. My team was really banged up due to injuries, including Mitchell being doubtful with toe turf, and my team isn't as strong as previous seasons (largely due to Barry's ratings dropping rather dramatically this season), so it was a real shocker to be able to win this one.

He's rated 8th overall out of QBs (only a couple points back from 6th), and has a life time QB rating of 92.2, and QB ratings of 109.5 and 99 in the last two seasons, with a playoff QB rating of 94.6.

I'd call him a star for sure, and he surely wasn't in real life.

[jzicc]

I copied the player distribution from another post --

The frequency Overall Player Ratings are assigned in the default data file:

600-625 - Rare Superstar - 0.3%
575-599 - Superstar - 1.4%
550-574 - Near Superstar - 1.8%
525-549 - Elite Starter - 1.7%
500-524 - Excellent Starter - 3.5%
475-499 - Very Good-Plus Starter - 4.3%
450-474 - Very Good Starter - 6.0%
425-449 - Good Starter - 16.2%
400-424 - Replacement-Level Starter (decent backup) - 27.2%
375-399 - Roster Filler - 37.6%

I think with the Scott Mitchell might normally come in at a 440 ish (just a guess -- he looked great on paper) -- so you can see that even with X factor off there are enough variables that he can reach 500 LEVEL ---- so again possibly a SD of +- 60 points with the x factor off ---- WITH X FACTOR ON --- it's more like +- 100 ------ Just really throwing this out there for discussion -- there are about 50 people on this board that probably could greatly refine my WAG