MLB: Just how bad are the Nationals?

[DeToxRox]

As a Tigers fan I can sympathize with these guys, but this teams looks hopeless. Beyond Zimmerman there is nothing there. Their pitching is meh all over and this team has yet to have a lead all year. Their only win was because Julio is not very good and he blew it in the bottom of the ninth. I am willing to bet this team competes with the 68 Mets/03 Tigers as worst all time.

Anyone else able to give a reason why they won't?

[DeToxRox]

From a Jayson Stark article ..

Problems 1 through 25: Talent
And by that we mean: There sure isn't enough of it. This entire starting rotation won two games last year. Yeah, two. The lineup features nobody who hit 25 homers last season. And once you get past Ryan Zimmerman, Austin Kearns and Brian Schneider, the rest of the roster is "just a bunch of extra players," said one scout.

"I've been watching that team, just to see if we might want to [trade] for someone when they start selling," said one front-office man. "I still haven't come up with that someone."

We're not sure how many games this team is going to lose. 100? 110? 118? But wherever they end up, the Nationals already have done something that's just about impossible:

Over their first nine games, 714 hitters marched up to home plate. Not one of them stepped into the box while the Nationals held a lead. (The only time they led in the one game they won, remember, was the moment the winning run crossed the plate in the ninth inning.) That's gotta be a record that will never be broken.

[CamEdwards]

I am proud(?) to say I was in the seats for Opening Day. I am also proud to say I didn't pay for the ticket. :)

[DeToxRox]

Should note: Braves/Nats in the 6th, 0-0 game, each team has 1 hit.

[DeToxRox]

I am proud(?) to say I was in the seats for Opening Day. I am also proud to say I didn't pay for the ticket. :)

How was the attendance?

[lordscarlet]

I am proud(?) to say I was in the seats for Opening Day. I am also proud to say I didn't pay for the ticket. :)

As was I. However, I paid for my ticket as I am sure to do many more times this year. :)

And a shutout win tonight against Smoltz!

[sabotai]

what better nats or phils

[JPhillips]

The thing is they don't have a Marlins payroll. They are spending way too much for this collection of crap. I also think they're taking a major risk going into the new stadium with the possibility of an historically bad team. It's been shown in numerous markets that a new stadium doesn't add much after the first year or two if the team is still losing.

[JPhillips]

I'll admit I was wrong on payroll I saw a number in the 50s. Maybe that was last year's number.

I disagree a little on the position players. They have a lot of decent players, but there isn't a single scary bat in that lineup. Zimmerman may eventually become that guy, but right now they have an abundance of 2 and 6 hitters.

They do have a lot of picks, but I still remember the story from last year when Bowden bragged about how he was loading up on high school pitching. He even had a theory that high school pitchers were better than college because they would be in the minors longer. Bowden made so many bad high school pitcher picks for the Reds that I fear for the Nats.

I generally agree that they're building the right way, but I would have liked to see them spend some money on a couple of decent pitchers. They could be historically bad this year and I don't think that benefits the franchise.

[gottimd]

I am proud(?) to say I was in the seats for Opening Day. I am also proud to say I didn't pay for the ticket. :)

I was there as well, and for the same price:)

Stadium was maybe 75% full, if that, and that percentage will drop very fast game by game. Soon there will be no more than 10 people in the stands. Its like the movie "Major League".

[Fighter of Foo]

They have yet to score in the first three innings of any game this year.

[John Galt]

They have yet to score in the first three innings of any game this year.

That's because all of the Nats players have super-high clutch ratings. ;)

[Ksyrup]

They suck. I guess if they can get shutout pitching every night from a rotation that had a combined 2 wins last year, they will be decent.

[Ksyrup]

As for adding offseason pitching, decent pitchers like Meche and Lilly were getting 4-5 year contracts at 10-11m a year. Do you honestly think adding one of them for 10 mil more this year makes any discernible difference? Until Randy St. Claire is gone it won't matter anyways as he'll just keep mangling every arm that he gets.

My personal feeling is that, at some point - whether it makes sense to SABR guys, your local writer, or just baseball fans in general - it is worth over-investing in a particular guy or guys to assure that you are somewhat competitive and not being mentioned in the same breath as the 1962 Mets. There's an unquantifiable value in being competitive enough that your fanbase wants to come to games and doesn't completely ignore the fact that the team exists. I'm not saying this particular team is at that point or whether a Gil Meche for $55M is worth it, but having a starting rotation with 2 2006 wins, and none of them being prospects, let alone highly-touted prospects, is inexcusable. At least the Marlins had consensus prospects who they had acquired in exchange for real talent. This team's pitching staff is both inexperienced AND bad, with little, if any, ceiling.

[lordscarlet]

I was there as well, and for the same price:)

Stadium was maybe 75% full, if that, and that percentage will drop very fast game by game. Soon there will be no more than 10 people in the stands. Its like the movie "Major League".

Where the heck were you guys in my "Anyone going to the Nats opener?" thread?? :)

[gottimd]

Where the heck were you guys in my "Anyone going to the Nats opener?" thread?? :)

I honestly didn't know I was going until the day before. We were invited by a company that does consulting for us to their seats. I'd laugh if either CamEdwards or lordscarlet work for that company, and I was actually at the game with one of them and I had no idea I was with another FOFC'er.

[Bee]

I think the positional players are decent and most are young enough that they probably haven't reached their prime yet. As far as pitching, Shawn Hill hasn't looked that bad. I think O'Connor will be an improvement when he comes back. If Chico calms down a little and gets under control and Patterson starts to at least show a glimmer of what he did last year, I think they could still win 50 games. Of course, maybe I'm just optomistic because I have a $100 riding on them winning 50 games. :D

[Ksyrup]

Well, hell, most very bad teams can walk into winning 50 games, so I'd take that bet despite how bad this team looks. But a few injuries and unexpected down (or further down, I guess ) seasons from key guys, and this team could see 115 losses. But's rare. I guess Arizona and Detroit were the last teams I can recall losing more than 110-115 games in a season, right?

[lordscarlet]

I honestly didn't know I was going until the day before. We were invited by a company that does consulting for us to their seats. I'd laugh if either CamEdwards or lordscarlet work for that company, and I was actually at the game with one of them and I had no idea I was with another FOFC'er.

Nah, I was with my dad in unusually crappy seats for me. Section 521 if memory serves me.

[Izulde]

The Nationals are so bad the Oakland Raiders could beat them in baseball.

[gottimd]

Nah, I was with my dad in unusually crappy seats for me. Section 521 if memory serves me.

I was in the 300's underneath the press box behind home plate.

[Bee]

Well, hell, most very bad teams can walk into winning 50 games, so I'd take that bet despite how bad this team looks. But a few injuries and unexpected down (or further down, I guess ) seasons from key guys, and this team could see 115 losses. But's rare. I guess Arizona and Detroit were the last teams I can recall losing more than 110-115 games in a season, right?

Well, there's no question they are bad. The question is how bad...historically bad or just first year of rebuilding bad? :D

[JPhillips]

I'm not sold on their position players. Zimmerman has the potential to be one of the top three third basemen in the game, but I don't think anyone else is in the top ten at their position. Schneider may be, but no one else. They have a lot of complimentary bats, but no one that pitchers fear.

Ksyrup said it well, they should have done something to avoid being historically bad. The new stadium will be enough next year, but this team better be a contender before the decade is out or they could become a National League version of the Orioles.

[lordscarlet]

I'm not sold on their position players. Zimmerman has the potential to be one of the top three third basemen in the game, but I don't think anyone else is in the top ten at their position. Schneider may be, but no one else. They have a lot of complimentary bats, but no one that pitchers fear.

Ksyrup said it well, they should have done something to avoid being historically bad. The new stadium will be enough next year, but this team better be a contender before the decade is out or they could become a National League version of the Orioles.

I think this is the perfect time to be bad. They're bad this year, they flow into the new stadium with new stadium hype, they're a little better the following two years and whent hey need to be good is in 2010 which follows 3 years of "rebuilding". If the plan goes as they expect, I think it's very smart.

[Ksyrup]

I think the question, though, is whether they have set themselves up to be good at any point in the near future. Admittedly, I don't know much about their farm system, but that's part of the problem, isn't it? When the Marlins sold off their team, everyone they got back was a top-rated prospect. When the D-Backs lost, what, 113 games a few years ago, everyone was talking about the young team that we're seeing on the field right now. I don't get the sense that the Nats have a huge amount of talent in the minors that they're holding back to coincide with the new stadium, but maybe they do. I think if they did, and they suck this bad, we'd be seeing them sooner rather than later. Like, "next week" sooner!

[JPhillips]

It may work. I just think they're playing with fire allowing the team to be so bad. Is it really likely that they can develop two or three starters, a couple setup men, a closer(assuming Cordero is traded), a couple big bats, and a middle infielder in three years? That's what it's going to take to compete with the Mets for the division.

By allowing this team to be a laughing stock the management is making their job more difficult.

I should add, do you think they'll keep Kearns, Lopez and Johnson when they're FAs?

[JPhillips]

According to John Sickels the farm system is far from loaded.

# Chris Marrero, OF, Grade B+ (solid all-around bat)
# Kory Casto, 3B-OF, Grade B (old for Double-A but I think he will hit)
# Colton Willems, RHP, Grade B (very young, a long way from the majors)
# Zech Zinicola, RHP, Grade B (will get there a lot faster than Willems but ceiling not as high)
# Shairon Martis, RHP, B (this is a generous grade but I like his arm)
# Shawn Hill, RHP, C+ (gets grounders)
# Matt Chico, LHP, C+ (number four starter perhaps)
# Garrett Mock, RHP, C+ (good arm but shaky results)
# Glenn Gibson, LHP,C+ (like Willems, promising but a long way away)
# Jhonny Nunez, RHP, C+ (see Gibson and Willems)
# Stephen King, SS, C+ (Good name but bat a question)
# Larry Broadway, 1B, C (getting old, needs a position)
# Collin Balester, RHP, C (good arm, terrible numbers)
# Clint Everts, RHP, C (good arm, terrible numbers)
# Brett Campbell, RHP, C (decent middle relief type)
# Ian Desmond, SS, C (I don't think he will hit)
# Alexis Morales, RHP, C (can't throw strikes)
# Josh Whitesell, 1B, C (85% as good as Broadway)
# Dee Brown Mark II, OF, C
# Marco Estrada, RHP, C

[Bee]

How does that compare to two years ago?

[JPhillips]

I can't find a 2005 prospects list on Sickels site, but based on comments most of the top ten are 2006 draft picks or trades. The farm system is getting better, but there currently isn't anyone that can be projected as an All-Star caliber player.

[Bee]

I was just curious because looking at that list, it looked like almost everyone were newer acquisitions.

I'm not really surprised though that they don't have any top prospects when you consider the state of the farm system when they were finally sold to the Lerner group. There wasn't much talent on the major league roster either to trade for prospects like the Marlins had in Ksyrup's example.

[CamEdwards]

I was in 429, I think. Not bad seats, and will probably have access to a pair of seats for day games if anybody wants to catch a game at some point.

[CamEdwards]

Of course, we could get an FOFC trip to the Potomac Nationals and have a much better time :)

[JPhillips]

This rebuilding strategy makes me rethink the Kearns/Lopez trade. It was still a disaster for the Reds, but I'm not sure it was a clear win for the Nats. Lopez may be a better fielder at 2nd, but he'll still be below average and I'm not sure he'll regain his All-Star batting form without the big bats behind him he had in Cincy. Kearns is good, but never will be an All-Star. He's a good guy to have batting two or six, but he's not a big RBI producer.

All this leads to the question, do the Nats keep either player when they turn FA? Neither is exceptional, and both will probably command a high enough salary to make the decision difficult. If the Nats let both of them walk they may or may not get compensation picks. If they get picks it will be at worst a wash, but if they let both walk and get no return they'll have given away a closer prospect for players that don't help in the rebuilding.

Of course they may trade both this year and then they'll be even worse!

[JPhillips]

I'd be up for a minor league get together.

[Ksyrup]

This doesn't look like anything other than pure speculation on the writer's part, but it's probably being discussed internally:



A. Jones in D.C.?
<!-- BREAK --><HR align=left color=#cccccc SIZE=1>
Given the Nationals' situation, even April isn't too early to start wondering about what free agents the club might pursue when its payroll expands for 2008. One logical possibility: Atlanta center fielder Andruw Jones, whose deal with the Braves expires at the end of this season.

Jones -- who will likely command something approaching or exceeding the eight-year, $136 million deal Alfonso Soriano signed with the Chicago Cubs last offseason -- is familiar with Nationals President Stan Kasten and bench coach Pat Corrales, who both had long tenures with the Braves.

"My love is here in Atlanta," Jones said before Thursday's game. "I will do my best to be here. But it's a business. Anything can happen."

Jones won't suffer from a shortage of pursuers. But if he leaves the National League East, he might not be able to whip up on the Nationals as much. In 166 career games against Montreal and Washington, he has 46 homers and 131 RBI -- his highest totals against any opponent.

[lordscarlet]

It may work. I just think they're playing with fire allowing the team to be so bad. Is it really likely that they can develop two or three starters, a couple setup men, a closer(assuming Cordero is traded), a couple big bats, and a middle infielder in three years? That's what it's going to take to compete with the Mets for the division.

By allowing this team to be a laughing stock the management is making their job more difficult.

I should add, do you think they'll keep Kearns, Lopez and Johnson when they're FAs?

I think this is the best they can do. If they stock up on free agents and ignore the farm system they'll be ready for a huge drop around 2010. MLB pillaged the Montreal/Washington franchise to a point that there is no quick answer. Kasten is not responsible for the dregs he inherited and I think he is trying to do the best he can to correct that problem. We (as a city/fans) want a team that can compete for a long time. A splash in the pan with free agents isn't going to help much to achieve that. I think the time to spend money on free agents is 2010 or so, when some of the young guys have panned out and the luster of the new stadium is wearing off.

I was in 429, I think. Not bad seats, and will probably have access to a pair of seats for day games if anybody wants to catch a game at some point.

Of course, we could get an FOFC trip to the Potomac Nationals and have a much better time :)

I would be down for either. I go to at least 10-15 Nationals games a year and I could certainly go to the P-Nats (I grew up down the street and the stadium is named after the father of a friend from growing up).

I have spent a lot of time in the 120s for games so far. They're fairly easy to get on ebay at or below face value. The best were the diamond club seats we got for $40/ea in '05.

[lordscarlet]

This doesn't look like anything other than pure speculation on the writer's part, but it's probably being discussed internally:



A. Jones in D.C.?
<!-- BREAK --><HR align=left color=#cccccc SIZE=1>
Given the Nationals' situation, even April isn't too early to start wondering about what free agents the club might pursue when its payroll expands for 2008. One logical possibility: Atlanta center fielder Andruw Jones, whose deal with the Braves expires at the end of this season.

Jones -- who will likely command something approaching or exceeding the eight-year, $136 million deal Alfonso Soriano signed with the Chicago Cubs last offseason -- is familiar with Nationals President Stan Kasten and bench coach Pat Corrales, who both had long tenures with the Braves.

"My love is here in Atlanta," Jones said before Thursday's game. "I will do my best to be here. But it's a business. Anything can happen."

Jones won't suffer from a shortage of pursuers. But if he leaves the National League East, he might not be able to whip up on the Nationals as much. In 166 career games against Montreal and Washington, he has 46 homers and 131 RBI -- his highest totals against any opponent.

I have no idea why the Nationals would entertain signing someone on the last year of a contract.

[QuikSand]

I have no idea why the Nationals would entertain signing someone on the last year of a contract.

I think on further review you'll find the article to be about Jones being a target after this year, and his contract, have ended.

[wade moore]

I would be down for either. I go to at least 10-15 Nationals games a year and I could certainly go to the P-Nats (I grew up down the street and the stadium is named after the father of a friend from growing up).

I think I read they're tearing down Pfitzner stadium :(.

[RedKingGold]

All I know is they're playing better than the Phillies right now.

:(

[PSUColonel]

All I know is they're playing better than the Phillies right now.

:(


you said it. UGLY:(


I'm starting to get my boo bird tuned up.

[lordscarlet]

I think I read they're tearing down Pfitzner stadium :(.

They are. It is a bit of a POS.

[JPhillips]

After 35 games the Nats are on pace for 116 losses.

Nats 2007, Not quite historically awful!

[MizzouRah]

MLB: Just how bad are the Cardinals?

[MylesKnight]

Cool thing from my perspective is a former AAU Basketball Teammate of mine (Michael Restovich) may get some time here and there on the MLB Roster. He's been a heckuva Minor League Player that hasn't been able to turn that into success at the Major League Level. Still, very cool that he has the opportunity he has to do what he does.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6416


As far as D.C. is concerned, will the city support this team over the course of the season if things continue? I guess we'll really get to see just how bad the District wanted MLB after all.

[Logan]

I remember Restovich being considered a pretty big prospect with the Twins a few years back. He was one of those guys I would always try to pick up during an OOTP career.

[lordscarlet]

Any city will only support a team for so long. I think the Nats are fine for now, but if we don't see any progress from the "build the farm system" plan in the next two years, I think you'll start seeing people leave. There will still be die hards like myself who are the ones that got the team here in teh first place, but there is no base to support if the team has been nothing but low budget the entire time it's been here.

[MrBug708]

MLB: Just how bad are the Cardinals?

And yet still better for letting Jeff Weaver go...

[MizzouRah]

And yet still better for letting Jeff Weaver go...

True dat.

What's up with Braden Looper? This guy needed to be a SP or something? Wow...

[sterlingice]

I don't get it. Mediocre closer but (so far) good SP? Usually, it's the other way around where a mediocre starter becomes a good closer, once again proving which is much easier, see Joe Nathan, Eric Gagne, Ryan Dempster, etc.

SI

[Atocep]

I don't get it. Mediocre closer but (so far) good SP? Usually, it's the other way around where a mediocre starter becomes a good closer, once again proving which is much easier, see Joe Nathan, Eric Gagne, Ryan Dempster, etc.

SI

Nathan, Gagne, and Dempster (and most guys that this happens to) have 1 or 2 great pitches, but no secondary stuff. Looper was the opposite, he doesn't have an overpowering pitch, but can throw several pitches over the plate for strikes. His BABIP is around .270 so you can expect it to creep up to the .290-.300 range, but if he can keep his walks down and keep the ball in the park he'll be an above average starter. It'll be interesting to see how much he wears down after the break, though, considering he's never thrown more the 83 innings in the majors.


EDIT: I would have never guessed he'd be anything better than league average as a starter, so this is definitely suprising. Just tossing out a possible reason for him being as good as he's been.

[MizzouRah]

Yeay for Looper, too bad the Cardinals hitting sucks.

[SFL Cat]

The Nats swept the Marlins and you're bragging?!

[MizzouRah]

The Nats swept the Marlins and you're bragging?!

He's just happy they are not the worst team in the MLB anymore.

I will say, the Cardinals might be there soon.

[sterlingice]

And in other news, the Nats just swept Florida and are now 12-25 and a half game better than KC. That's right, the Nats don't have the worst record in MLB on May 13.

Then it probably was also true on May 12th as the Royals won today.

SI

[sterlingice]

I understand the need to be happy over small victories, speaking of which KC snapped a 7 game skid last night and won for the first time at St Pete since 2004. Ugh.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Hard to believe this team has been this decent so far. 21-14 over their last 35 games. They're undoubtedly playing over their heads. In the long run, I still don't see much to be optimistic about.

[Butter]

The Reds are much, much worse.

[JPhillips]

The Nats have been impressive and I think Acta should be a manager of the year candidate, but I still say they aren't close to competing for a playoff spot. They don't have a top five player at any position and all the prospects are in the lower minors.

They have gotten extremely lucky in getting good pitching performances out of guys they didn't think were good enough to be on the big league team. They could still be a one hundred loss team next year.

[lordscarlet]

After 35 games the Nats are on pace for 116 losses.

Nats 2007, Not quite historically awful!

Hard to believe this team has been this decent so far. 21-14 over their last 35 games. They're undoubtedly playing over their heads. In the long run, I still don't see much to be optimistic about.

The Nationals would have to lose every single game remaining to get to 100 losses.

[Fighter of Foo]

I had them under 67 :(

[lordscarlet]

I had them under 67 :(

Wins or losses? :)

[Karlifornia]

Washington 62 77 .446 16 35-35 27-42
San Francisco 62 77 .446 14.5 33-35 29-42

Washington's payroll: $37,347,500
San Francisco's payroll: $90,469,056

Does.Not.Compute.

[Toddzilla]

Washington 62 77 .446 16 35-35 27-42
San Francisco 62 77 .446 14.5 33-35 29-42

Washington's payroll: $37,347,500
San Francisco's payroll: $90,469,056

Does.Not.Compute.Isn't Brian Sabean the Giants GM? Makes perfect sense to me.

[lordscarlet]

And now it is impossible for the Nationals to reach 100 losses!

[sterlingice]

The Royals are 1 win away from that for the first time since 2003 :)

SI

[Karlifornia]

Isn't Brian Sabean the Giants GM? Makes perfect sense to me.

A lot of people give Brian Sabean shit because of the Nathan, Liriano, Bonser for Pierzynski trade, which he definitely deserves...but...


As of July 13, 2007, Sabean owns the ninth-highest winning percentage (.544, 927-777) among all general managers since 1950.

That ain't not bad.