Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[path12]

Far away from here there are wizards, some of whom live in Fortune. They specialize in training diviners here, seers that then cover the globe in search of wolves, their mortal enemy.

That made it all the more embarrassing when Felix's Divination Nation! (motto: 'If you buy, we'll scry!'), one of the leading diviner schools, had an infestation of wolves. Wolves, student diviners (who are not fully trained yet!) -- Felix's reputation must be saved!

This is a 9 player game. The basics are very simple. There are 6 seers (students) and 3 wolves. A role for everybody!

The students have a 75% chance of correctly identifying the faction of another player. Each student can scan another player every night.

There will be a night zero where everyone gets a scan to start the game.

Each day the players will vote on a player to be lynched. The player with the most votes will be killed. Ties will be broken by coin flip. The faction of the player lynched will be revealed upon death.

The wolves do not know each other. They have a 80% chance of correctly identifying the faction another player. Each wolf can scan another player every night. The wolves will each vote on a kill attempt each evening. The player with the most votes will be killed. If there is a tie it will be settled by the first kill vote received. Note that it is possible for the wolves to kill one of their own.

The wolves must eliminate ALL the students. The students must eliminate ALL the wolves.

Rules may be modified at the whim of the GM until the game starts. Let's have fun! Day deadlines 9PM Eastern, results around there somewhere. Night deadline 9AM Eastern, results closer to 9 Pacific. We'll figure out start date when we fill.

Signups:

1. st.cronin -- wolf, lynched day 3
2. Alan T -- student, killed night 2
3. Chief Rum
4. ImTheCrew -- wolf, lynched day 2
5. ntndeacon -- student, killed night 4
6. RendeR -- student, killed night 1
7. DaddyTorgo -- student, lynched day 4
8. Lathum -- student, lynched day 1
9. hoopsguy -- student, killed night 3

[st.cronin]

I'll play...

[Barkeep49]

I love your sense of humor path, but I'm going to sit this one out.

[Tyrith]

Oh gosh, this game should be crazy. I won't be signing up (at least right now), but I'll follow with interest.

[path12]

Oh gosh, this game should be crazy. I won't be signing up (at least right now), but I'll follow with interest.

I'm imagining it as a wild, fun free-for-all. A game to just have a good time with.

[Alan T]

I'll play. I need something fun to do for 3 days!

[Chief Rum]

Ditto. Im in.

[ImTheCrew]

In

[ntndeacon]

In

[RendeR]

sign me up.

[path12]

Well, I guess either people are waiting for the big game to start, need a break or this idea isn't really going over well right now. We'll give it another day or two and see what happens.......

[DaddyTorgo]

this sounds classic. I'm in

dunno how I missed the signup thread

[Lathum]

in

[Alan T]

Well, I guess either people are waiting for the big game to start, need a break or this idea isn't really going over well right now. We'll give it another day or two and see what happens.......

Any problem running this game with 8 path? Seems like a decent number for a small person game!

[path12]

Any problem running this game with 8 path? Seems like a decent number for a small person game!

I'd like to get at least one more. I think we could do it with 9. If we don't have any more takers by end of today we'll go with what we have.

[path12]

Update.

I do have one player who has offered to play if we can't find anyone else, but I know his schedule is full right now and I'm hoping we can get one more volunteer.

If we don't have one by 9PM Pacific, we'll roll with nine. I'll update rules, send out PM's and ask for night 0 view choices at that time.

[path12]

OK. Hoopsguy has graciously volunteered to fill out the game.....thanks!

I have made some rule adjustments noted on the first post. I will start sending out PM's giving you your role, list of players, and asking you for your night 0 view target.

All PM's will be exactly the same, except for the voting requirements and the faction, so comparisons will be rather useless.

Let me know if you have any questions, otherwise, go out and rescue the school's reputation! (or sully it more, as the case may be).

[path12]

Alright, game on! All role PM's have been sent. I'd like to wrap up night 0 by noon Eastern tomorrow, then we can either go to the regular 9PM Eastern deadline or if you feel we need longer for day 1 we can.

If you did not receive a PM from me, let me know ASAP.

[Chief Rum]

Woot! First to post. :)

I'm a villager, but then, what's the point? I figure by the end of Day Two, we'll all have pretty strong suspicions about who is who.

I recommend we don't ALL scan AlanT on the first night. :)

Actually, seriously, if we had more time, I would recommend coming up with a "scan plan" so we can get roundabout reveals going. But I don't know if that gets any support.

I will be around a little early on in the morning, but then I'll probably be out the rest of the day. Thursday is also pretty shot working both jobs. Expect some late night posting and/or early Thursday posting tomorrow.

If I am still alive on Friday, I should be around a lot more.

Good luck, everyone!

[hoopsguy]

OK, first question - what happens on the 25% of scans that fail? Do we get incorrect faction info or no result?

I did not put in my scan order for AlanT, fwiw.

And I'm expecting that I won't be around a ton this week, so please don't come stalking me just because I'm more quiet than usual (see post #16).

[ntndeacon]

OK, first question - what happens on the 25% of scans that fail? Do we get incorrect faction info or no result?

I did not put in my scan order for AlanT, fwiw.

And I'm expecting that I won't be around a ton this week, so please don't come stalking me just because I'm more quiet than usual (see post #16).

My guess is that that 25% wll just see the wrong thing. (Or 20% in the case of the wolves) I hope I am wrong as wrong info could be costly.

[Alan T]

Got my pm, and sent my scan order in already!

The way I read the rules it made me think there is just a chance of failing the scan, not that you would get the wrong info from. Clarification would be good I suppose!

[ntndeacon]

well i guess if everyone gets a reading on night 0 then we can suspect that we get bad info. even if we all get good info on night 0 after night 1 we will be sure. :)

[RendeR]

Woot! First to post. :)

I'm a villager, but then, what's the point? I figure by the end of Day Two, we'll all have pretty strong suspicions about who is who.


Ok I may be real new to this whole werewolf genre, but this, based on the rules of this particular game seems utterly idiotic?

No matter your role you don't want to divulge that information because there is no one out there to protect you. Anyone announcing their role, truly or falsely will not survive any given night.

One faction or the other will kill you just because you've given them the opportunity.

[path12]

OK, first question - what happens on the 25% of scans that fail? Do we get incorrect faction info or no result?


Scans that fail will give incorrect faction info.

[Lathum]

Checking in. I also didn't scan alanT. I won't be around for a few of the nights and is we go into the weekend I will barely be around.

To answer Renders question it is common for the "seer" to give themselves up in a 1-1 trade in these games. I have yet to see a seer make it to the end of a game. In this game some people will need to give themselves up.

[hoopsguy]

Ok I may be real new to this whole werewolf genre, but this, based on the rules of this particular game seems utterly idiotic?

No matter your role you don't want to divulge that information because there is no one out there to protect you. Anyone announcing their role, truly or falsely will not survive any given night.

One faction or the other will kill you just because you've given them the opportunity.

RendeR, everyone is going to claim to be a seer. The other game you played there was only one seer. So protecting that person, as is usually the case in WW, was a high priority for the villagers.

However, with multiple seers how is one seer more valuable than another seer from the wolf perspective?

That is why I think that everyone is going to divulge their role (or fake reveal as a seer) and only one person is going to die (if I read the rules correctly). It won't be because they are the seer, as the importance of that role is marginalized by the abundance of people in that role.

[st.cronin]

I have yet to see a seer make it to the end of a game.

I did, in the Jack the Ripper game. :p

I like the idea of a plan for scans ... I'm scanning DaddyTorgo.

[hoopsguy]

I'm certainly willing to talk about a plan for scans, but I would prefer to start tomorrow when we have time to coordinate it.

I haven't really gone through the pros/cons of doing so quite yet but I think we would have to decide on a subset of people to run the scans against given the 25% chance of failure. So if we pair up in groups of two at the end of Day 1 (can debate what to do with odd man, if needed) and also agree upon the order that info is released between that pair. I think that would be the way to go, while trying to preserve teams of two who report identical information.

I would have liked to have a game the size Path initially intended for this plan because I think it would be harder to lose in that scenario. Here, with fewer days to implement the plan there is a little higher likelihood of failure.

[Lathum]

I did, in the Jack the Ripper game. :p

I like the idea of a plan for scans ... I'm scanning DaddyTorgo.

well aren't you cool :)

dodn't you mean you scanned daddytorgo last night?

[st.cronin]

We should at least TRY to get some coordination for night 0, hoops, even if its not total. If everybody scans Lathum, for example, that's a bit of a waste, isn't it?

[st.cronin]

well aren't you cool :)

dodn't you mean you scanned daddytorgo last night?

Considering I haven't gotten a result, I think the scan is still underway. Meaning I assume I can change it up until deadline, should circumstances dictate.

[Lathum]

I encourage multiple people to scan me( but not to many).

I scanned ITC last night

[path12]

Results coming out soon. Those who did not specify a scan will receive one at random.

[Lathum]

We should at least TRY to get some coordination for night 0, hoops, even if its not total. If everybody scans Lathum, for example, that's a bit of a waste, isn't it?

I was operating under the assumption of a 9:00AM deadline.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I would have been all for trying to coordinate if we had more than ten minutes or if we had a room full of people in here chattering when I posted.

FWIW, I did scan Lathum. I wanted to pick someone that someone else would likely scan so we could have something resembling validation. And because I thought it was important to remove the world's greatest wolf early if it came to that :)

[st.cronin]

I thought deadline was noon. Anyway, DaddyTorgo is a student.

[path12]

I thought deadline was noon. Anyway, DaddyTorgo is a student.

Noon eastern.

[st.cronin]

Ah. I thought path was using pacific time.

[path12]

Day 1 is now underway. Deadline is 9PM Eastern time.

Results of the tiebreaker votes:

For lynch votes: Ties will be broken by coin flip.
For night kills: Ties will be broken by first kill vote received.

[Lathum]

VOTE IMTHECREW

[Lathum]

wanted to get that out there.


He is a wolf

[st.cronin]

VOTE IMTHECREW

[ImTheCrew]

wow im shocked lathum that you would come out this early with false accusations i am villiger, did anyone scan lathum to see if he was a wolf??
25% chance you got the wrong info 75% your'e a wolf so right now ill go with the % and

VOTE LATHUM

ps i scanned Render and he was clean

[Lathum]

Scans that fail will give incorrect faction info.

hopefully my scan was accurate

[hoopsguy]

I scanned Lathum and he came up wolf. Given the 25% chance of failure, I'm not looking to go bananas with this, but I'm certainly not jumping on his vote for ITC right away either.

[hoopsguy]

So, we've got two wolf scans out there right now:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf

And one villager scan:

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student

ITC, who did you scan and what was the result?

[Lathum]

I scanned Lathum and he came up wolf. Given the 25% chance of failure, I'm not looking to go bananas with this, but I'm certainly not jumping on his vote for ITC right away either.

then you got an incorrect scan.


If I was a wolf the last thing I would do is come out guns blazing on the first day.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, it is certainly possible. That is why I'm not voting right away here and hoping that someone else scanned you to verify/dispute the result.

[Lathum]

ordinararaly I wouldn't come out swinging but since longest help vote could be a tie breaker I wanted to get it out there early.

[path12]

ordinararaly I wouldn't come out swinging but since longest help vote could be a tie breaker I wanted to get it out there early.


Lynch ties will be broken by coin flip per the vote last night. I'll update the rules post.

[DaddyTorgo]

damm. that was a quick turnaround. got my role-PM at 12:45am with a deadline of noon for a scan request. didn't check the board this AM so didn't even see that. fortunately dear Path randomly scanned someone for me, and i have interesting results. going to go and check and read through the rules and what-not to try to see if there are disadvantages to revealing what i learned.

[Alan T]

I scanned Hoops and he turned up as a student for me.

So that means to me a 75% chance he is good and not lying about his 75% chance that lathum was bad. So worst case 50/50 for me that Lathum is bad Which is better than most day 1 votes.

It also makes me take any caution that Imthecrew is a wolf without more collaboration.

[Alan T]

So to update our list:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf


Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.

[Lathum]

So that means to me a 75% chance he is good and not lying about his 75% chance that lathum was bad. So worst case 50/50 for me that Lathum is bad .

I don't really understand this. Do you me it is 75% that hoops isn't bad and trying to save ITC?

[Alan T]

I don't really understand this. Do you me it is 75% that hoops isn't bad and trying to save ITC?

No, the rules say I have a 75% chance of successfully scanning Hoopsguy. Since he scanned good to me, then thats a 75% chance that he is good.

So right now I trust Hoops more than anyone else, and put a bit more weight into his scan of you than your scan of ITC

[Lathum]

No, the rules say I have a 75% chance of successfully scanning Hoopsguy. Since he scanned good to me, then thats a 75% chance that he is good.

So right now I trust Hoops more than anyone else, and put a bit more weight into his scan of you than your scan of ITC

well I think your math is off in terms of me being 75% bad.

[DaddyTorgo]

I know I am a villager, so my scan is 75% accurate and it returned that the world's greatest wolf is a wolf this game as well.

i'll try to break down what that means in a second in terms of probabilities of him lying vs. being honest and getting the wrong scan result

i do think it only benefits us to be very open about scans and scan results though. that way we can start to build up trust...if multiple people who are double-cleared good scan someone and they come back as good then they are likely good

VOTE LATHUM

cuz he's a wolf, assuming my scan was correct

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops and i both had lathum show up as a wolf? seems to me lathum is pretty darn wolfish

can someone run through the math. i guess we're looking at what...combinations? or permutations?

[Lathum]

interesting.

Well once I come up good it will be obvious daddytorgo could be trying to protect ITC.

I suggest 2 people scan DT and 2 scan ITC tonight.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, Alan is working under the same 75% assumption for me that you would be working with for ITC.

We all obviously put the most trust in our own scan result. But after that, what scan results do you trust most? Alan is suggesting that he will apply the transitive property, trusting that the person he scanned as good (75% accurate) is accurately portraying their results (also with 75% accuracy).

I'm still very interested in seeing the other scan results. Both ITC and DT have posted since results went up, but haven't given their findings. Also, DT's post suggests that even if a result was not submitted that there will be a random scan - so everyone should have results.

From my perspective, it is clearly in our best interests to share information. We aren't trying to protect a role here. We are just trying to get the most data points to make an informed decision.

[Lathum]

I never said we shouldn't share information and I understand Alan's perspective. I just think his math is off.

It really doesn't matter at this point.

The real question is weather or not people will believe DT

[hoopsguy]

DT, there is a 1/4 chance of one person having a bad result. The second person would also have a 1/4 chance. So the chances of both getting it wrong is 1/16. I'll take my chances on this.

VOTE LATHUM

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops...you just missed my results. per my random scan assigned by path, lathum is a wolf.

cronin has already scanned me as good, meaning the rest of you should have 75% trust in that i'm good. i know i'm a villager, so i trust myself 100%.

why would lathum want 2 people to scan ME and ITC tonight if we've both been scanned once? That seems like 2 wasted scans (if we're willing to go with 2 scans per person being a reasonable level of certainty). maybe he's trying to protect fellow wolves by diverting scans?

and meanwhile we have 2 people confirming (both of whom have been singly confirmed as students) that lathum is a wolf. Now maybe Hoops+me+Lathum all got the bad-25% (or bad 20% in the case of lathum) scans, but the odds of that are pretty damm low. and why would i try to protect ITC? I wouldn't even know he was a wolf. The more likely scenario is lathum is evil and trying to get us to take out one villager + divert scans to people he suspects are not wolves since they've been cleared.

did that make sense?

[hoopsguy]

From the rules:
The wolves do not know each other. They have a 80% chance of correctly identifying the faction another player.

So it makes it harder to accept the concept of one wolf covering for another one at this point.

Here is how I could see that happening:
1. DT is a wolf and scanned ITC, identified him as wolf
2. DT scanned Lathum, identified him as a villager, and decided to back my "invalid" scan to put pressure on me the next day

I'm guessing there are other scenarios based on feel but I don't think the odds (12.5% choosing, or having chosen, ITC based on random numbers) really support DT having knowledge on ITC that would back the idea of him "covering" for him.

[Lathum]

DT. I suggest 2 people scan each of you because I am going to come up good.

It is obvious to me that you DIDN"T SCAN ME LAST NIGHT as you claim and you are attempting to save a fellow wolf.

That is the only logical comclusion since the odds are so low.

[Lathum]

Hoops, you are operating under the assumption that DT's random scan was on me and that I turned up bad.

Considering how long the odds are you don't see it likely DT is outright lying?

[DaddyTorgo]

DT, there is a 1/4 chance of one person having a bad result. The second person would also have a 1/4 chance. So the chances of both getting it wrong is 1/16.

thanks. i don't do math. i couldn't figure if just multiplying the fractions together would be okay, or if we needed to get more statistical and do permutations or combinations or something

[Lathum]

Dola- not to mention I claimed ITC as a wolf long before anyone revealed a scan about me. If I was a wolf I HAVE NO REASON TO DO THAT since I would have no knowledge of being scanned

[Lathum]

Note that it is possible for the wolves to kill one of their own.

lyncing me also takes away the possibility of a wolf being night killed

[Chief Rum]

For two villagers, there is a 9/16's (56.25%) chance of both identifying the same player as the correct faction.

That isn't exactly a lock, as I see it. That said, two people both rolling wolf for Lathum is damning at this point, and if true, certainly does put his reveal of ITC in doubt.

I scanned AlanT, as I suggested I might, and he came up clean to me.

I am going to...

VOTE LATHUM

This is just in case I don't get back here to read new input later on. I should be able to check in later today before I go into work, but I wanted a vote in if I couldn't.

Still wrapping my head around the reveals and percentages.

BTW, to Render, it is fairly typical at the start of games for players to reveal they are villagers. That's all I did. Now here in this game, everyone is a seer, so saying this doesn't matter much. But it always seems like players who don't get unreasonably attacked, so I was covering my bases. I would ratehr we not waste a day on me.

[Alan T]

well I think your math is off in terms of me being 75% bad.

Make sure to let Path know then, since his math is off too.



The students have a 75% chance of correctly identifying the faction of another player. Each student can scan another player every night.

[st.cronin]

I agree it seems likely that Lathum is a wolf. However, I also think it is still plausible that ITC is also a wolf - at any rate I'll leave my vote there for now.

[Lathum]

I am simply amazed no one is considering the possibility that DT is lying about who he scanned.

Go ahead and lynch me, at least we learn alot about people.

[Lathum]

Make sure to let Path know then, since his math is off too.

obviously my point isn't coming across

[Alan T]

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.

Results unknown:

ImTheCrew
ntndeacon
RendeR

[Lathum]

ITC said he scanned Render and he came up student

[Alan T]

obviously my point isn't coming across

Well, it seemed to me you were trying to twist facts in an effort to wiggle out of a lynch.

Its a fact that a good person has a 75% chance of an accurate scan.

I scanned Hoops as good, so 75% likely that is true
Hoops scanned you as bad, so 75% chance that is true
Cronin scanned Daddytorgo as good so 75% chance that is true
DaddyTorgo scanned you as bad, so 75% chance that is true.

All in all, you have a chain of 4 seperate scans that tie together. Its possible that one or even two of them are wrong. But thats why I said before I felt it was 50/50 that you were bad. Chief posted something closer to 56% which sounds pretty decent.

Either way, right now I would be very suprised to see us end up with a better candidate than you.

[st.cronin]

I'm trying to figure out why if Lathum were a wolf, he would point to another player and say "wolf." Do people think

a) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a student
b) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a wolf
c) he scanned somebody else

Personally I think b) is most likely, even if you posit that Lathum is a wolf.

[Alan T]

I'm trying to figure out why if Lathum were a wolf, he would point to another player and say "wolf." Do people think

a) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a student
b) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a wolf
c) he scanned somebody else

Personally I think b) is most likely, even if you posit that Lathum is a wolf.

Its very easy for a wolf in this game to make a claim about someone and it end up being wrong.. "Woops guess the 25% chance I was wrong bit me there".

I'm not going to condemn ITC until we get some collaborating scans on him (like we did with Lathum). Likewise I think its important for us to get a second scan on people (like myself, Hoops, etc) and even more important to get a first scan on people who havent been scanned yet.

Can 2 seperate scans of someone be wrong? Yes. Is it likely they both would be wrong? No.

[Alan T]

Oh, and before I forget.

Vote Lathum

[Chief Rum]

wow im shocked lathum that you would come out this early with false accusations i am villiger, did anyone scan lathum to see if he was a wolf??
25% chance you got the wrong info 75% your'e a wolf so right now ill go with the % and

VOTE LATHUM

ps i scanned Render and he was clean

You guys missed IMC's scan of Render, for what good at the moment that is (given doubts about ITC, I mean).

[Chief Rum]

ITC said he scanned Render and he came up student

Whoops, Lathum beat me to the punch.

[Lathum]

Like I said before, I have zero to gain by accusing ITC so early in the day unless I was positive ( or 75%) he is a wolf. It would be the dumbest wolf move ever since it would guarentee me being dead by day 2, not really an optimal strategy.

This would be totaly different if I was accused THEN came out and said I scanned ITC and he is bad but I cast the first stone.

If you lynch me tonight not only are we down a villegar but it eliminates the possibility of ITC being accidentaly night killed. HE will be scanned, come up bad, lynched tomorrow and we lose a day.

[Lathum]

Dola-

You guys are going to lose this game early.

Follow this logic.

We lynch ITC today and he comes up good, I am dead meat tomorrow. Assuming you think I am a wolf we have 1 dead wolf and one dead villegar.

We lynch me today, I will come up good, we waste scans tonight on ITC and he gets lynched tomorrow. Still one dead wolf and one dead villegar, the only difference is we waste a day and valuable night scans.

Trust me, lynching me a a horrible move.

[Alan T]

Like I said before, I have zero to gain by accusing ITC so early in the day unless I was positive ( or 75%) he is a wolf. It would be the dumbest wolf move ever since it would guarentee me being dead by day 2, not really an optimal strategy.

This would be totaly different if I was accused THEN came out and said I scanned ITC and he is bad but I cast the first stone.

If you lynch me tonight not only are we down a villegar but it eliminates the possibility of ITC being accidentaly night killed. HE will be scanned, come up bad, lynched tomorrow and we lose a day.

No, I don't believe this. I believe your move is the smart wolf move, and waiting to be accused would be the bad wolf move. You show confidence in your vote, that your scan of Imthecrew is infallible with your vote so quick before even listening for other secondary scans of him.

This tells me that you know you would be a popular target, you knew that it was likely that at least one person would scan you if not multiple. You knew that you might have a tough time dodging that bullet, so instead you pull out a day 1 target, and pick someone who likely doesn't have a history for talking their way out of a lynch.

You know that if imthecrew is lynched and ends up good, you wouldn't get lynched right away, as this isn't like other games. Being wrong on a scan doesn't make you bad, it just makes you unlucky. And you know you could talk your way out of that.

Unfortunatly for you 2 people scanned you as good, both of whom were scanned by other people as good as well. Is there a chance that you're good still? Sure. But right now we have a better chance of you being bad than anyone else in the game, and that says something.

[Alan T]

Dola-

You guys are going to lose this game early.

Follow this logic.

We lynch ITC today and he comes up good, I am dead meat tomorrow. Assuming you think I am a wolf we have 1 dead wolf and one dead villegar.

We lynch me today, I will come up good, we waste scans tonight on ITC and he gets lynched tomorrow. Still one dead wolf and one dead villegar, the only difference is we waste a day and valuable night scans.

Trust me, lynching me a a horrible move.

If you somehow end up turning up good, then we know there is the 75% chance that Imthecrew is bad at that point and can be an ok day 2 target even without wasting more scans on him. Your turning up good would be a voucher for what you gave us in the way of information. Only if you turn up bad do we then have to question the motivation behind the delivery of your information.

[st.cronin]

Dola-

You guys are going to lose this game early.

Follow this logic.

We lynch ITC today and he comes up good, I am dead meat tomorrow. Assuming you think I am a wolf we have 1 dead wolf and one dead villegar.

We lynch me today, I will come up good, we waste scans tonight on ITC and he gets lynched tomorrow. Still one dead wolf and one dead villegar, the only difference is we waste a day and valuable night scans.

Trust me, lynching me a a horrible move.

That makes no sense. A 1 for 1 swap is a GOOD move for the village. Its pretty clear that one or both of you and ITC are wolves.

[Lathum]

That makes no sense. A 1 for 1 swap is a GOOD move for the village. Its pretty clear that one or both of you and ITC are wolves.

I understand that but either way it is a 1-1 swap.

Lynch ITC today and we don't lose tomorrow and tonights scans.

And AlanT, you can't seriously tell me at least one person will scan ITC tonight and IMO that is a wasted scan.

[st.cronin]

I understand that but either way it is a 1-1 swap.

Lynch ITC today and we don't lose tomorrow and tonights scans.

And AlanT, you can't seriously tell me at least one person will scan ITC tonight and IMO that is a wasted scan.

Either way, though, you're probably going to get lynched tomorrow, unless about 3 people scan you and all say you come up as student.

[Alan T]

I understand that but either way it is a 1-1 swap.

Lynch ITC today and we don't lose tomorrow and tonights scans.

And AlanT, you can't seriously tell me at least one person will scan ITC tonight and IMO that is a wasted scan.

If you turn up bad? then people definitly need to scan ITC, but not everyone. I already stated my opinon on scans. Its important to have everyone scanned at some point, and also just as important to get second scans on people, including myself.

I assume you will turn out bad, and we won't be able to take your scan of ITC at face value either way. If you turn out good, then we know its a 75% chance that ITC is bad, and we probably don't have to really waste scans on it and look elsewhere instead.

With you being good, and his scanning bad, would make him a decent day 2 target if nothing else presented itself during the night. However I find that unlikely to happen, and think the more likely possibility is that you will end up bad and we won't know anything about ITC .

[Lathum]

Either way, though, you're probably going to get lynched tomorrow, unless about 3 people scan you and all say you come up as student.

so your saying if ITC was to get lynched today, come up wolf I would still be a target tomorrow?

[Alan T]

so your saying if ITC was to get lynched today, come up wolf I would still be a target tomorrow?

It would be foolish of us to lynch ITC based on your word alone rather than lynch you based on multiple other people's words.

[st.cronin]

so your saying if ITC was to get lynched today, come up wolf I would still be a target tomorrow?

Yes.

[Lathum]

BTW- Daddytorgo made his reveal AFTER St.Cronin "cleared" him. It would be a solid wolf play to say he scanned me once he has a level of trust in order to save ITC.

[Lathum]

Yes.

why?

[st.cronin]

why?

Because the suspicion of you has nothing to do with ITC. He's a totally different issue. The evidence against you has nothing to do with him.

[st.cronin]

dola

The evidence against ITC is colored by suspicions about you: It makes more sense for somebody else to scan him tonight.

So its like this:

2 claims that Lathum is a wolf by people that have been "cleared." Its impossible that all 4 of those players are bad, and its improbable that more than one of them is.

1 claim that ITC is a wolf by a wolf who has been outed.

There is no way we lynch anybody but you today, and even if somehow you are able to persuade the village that we should lynch ITC, the claims against you will still be strong enough that you will likely go down tomorrow.

[Lathum]

Well I am done. I have to leave in a littlte bit and will be out until past the deadline.


Once I come up good I suggest you look at DT and ITC eventhough looking at ITC will be a waste since he should be lynched today.

I guess my only hope is NTN or Render scanned me.

[st.cronin]

For tonight I plan to scan ntndeacon.

[Lathum]

dola- I would look at hoops also, it's possible he made a similar move

[Lathum]

dola- My other idea was a tie, let a coinflip decide then we move forward tomorrow.

with that I'm out of here

[Lathum]

I think if ITC agrees to that we should do it. Unless ITC has some reason to hide.

[ImTheCrew]

i dont have any reason to hide but im not going to put my villiger life on the line for a very strong possible wolf

id also like to be scanned to confirm me being a villiger

[DaddyTorgo]

chasing your own wolf tail much lathum?

i already stated that i missed the quick turnaround and path assigned me a random scan. looks like it was lucky for the village that it was of you.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, do you want to begin our planning for night scans already or wait until we have the results at the end of this Day period? My thought was to wait until we have those results and then fairly quickly move to some kind of a "scan priority" and a buddy system for two people to target the people we agree need to be validated ASAP.

[DaddyTorgo]

i think we BADLY need to coordinate scans...draw up a list of "who should scan who" that cross-references and all, so that we have the ability to tie people down not only by their voting record but also by the scanning. since we're all seers, we should put it all out in the open i think. more information=a win for us students.

i leave it to someone else with more brainpower/planning power to draw up a list to ensure that everyone gets scanned in an orderly fashion, but i really think someone needs to do that tonight so we have it ready to go tomorrow.

does that make sense? everyone with assigned scans+multiple people scanning everyone every night until we get a cleared list we feel fairly good about. so people can cross-vouch.

[DaddyTorgo]

dammit you guys. typing all that up while i worked.

am i going to get accused of bandwagoning again like i was in rome and offed again by my own people?

[hoopsguy]

I laid out the framework for what I think the plan should be - determine four people to scan tonight, with two people scanning each of them, releasing results in a pre-set order (if possible). The pairs should ideally be people with no linkage between them so far (no Cronin/Torgo, no Hoops/Alan) but if possible people who log in around same time in morning/afternoon so we aren't stuck waiting too long for scan results.

I'll be willing to put something like that together, but I would certainly be willing to follow someone else who wants to take time to do this as well.

[path12]

Current vote total:

Lathum (5): InTheCrew (44), DaddyTorgo (58), hoopsguy (63), Chief Rum (71), Alan T (81)

InTheCrew (2): Lathum (41), st.cronin (43)

Not voted: RendeR, ntndeacon

[st.cronin]

Cronin, do you want to begin our planning for night scans already or wait until we have the results at the end of this Day period? My thought was to wait until we have those results and then fairly quickly move to some kind of a "scan priority" and a buddy system for two people to target the people we agree need to be validated ASAP.

I think we need to begin planning now. We can even make 2 plans, just for giggles: One if Lathum is good, one if Lathum is bad.

I've got ntndeacon.

[Alan T]

I laid out the framework for what I think the plan should be - determine four people to scan tonight, with two people scanning each of them, releasing results in a pre-set order (if possible). The pairs should ideally be people with no linkage between them so far (no Cronin/Torgo, no Hoops/Alan) but if possible people who log in around same time in morning/afternoon so we aren't stuck waiting too long for scan results.

I'll be willing to put something like that together, but I would certainly be willing to follow someone else who wants to take time to do this as well.

I think its very important to get scans on the people who we don't have scans for so far.

We know very little about Chief, Ntndeacon, St.cronin (and ITC if Lathum ends up bad) for instance.

I also think it probably would make me feel better getting a second scan on people we have 1 for so far. I doubt people with 2 scans need a 3rd (at least just yet), so I wouldnt think it wise for Hoops to be scanned a third time yet.

We also have no record of who Render or Ntndeacon scanned last night.

[Alan T]

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.

Results unknown:

ntndeacon
RendeR

[Alan T]

So in a point system, I'll discard anything Lathum said about ITC for now (pending the result of today's lynch).

From most important to be scanned to least important:

Ntndeacon
Imthecrew
St.Cronin
Chief Rum

Render
Alan T
Hoopsguy
DaddyTorgo



(Sorry I added Hoopsguy back to the list as I thought 2 people had scanned him good, but only one has, so its important that he still gets scanned too).

[DaddyTorgo]

i will scan whoever. I really think someone should take charge of it though and dictate. In order to limit the ability for their to be any monkey-business.

[st.cronin]

i will scan whoever. I really think someone should take charge of it though and dictate. In order to limit the ability for their to be any monkey-business.

How about:

1. st.cronin - ntndeacon
2. Alan T - ntndeacon
3. Chief Rum ImTheCrew
4. ImTheCrew st.cronin
5. ntndeacon ImTheCrew
6. RendeR - hoopsguy
7. DaddyTorgo - hoopsguy
8. Lathum (presumed lynched)
9. hoopsguy - st.cronin

[DaddyTorgo]

shouldn't render and i scan rum instead of hoops though? hoops already has one scan in on him

course this is awaing the results of render+ntn's scans that were already done

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, it looks like your list lines up with Alan's priorities, with the exception of me instead of Chief Rum. I'm fine with that, although it means that Rum will not be scanned on either of the first two nights.

I would recommend if Lathum does end up showing as a villager that we collapse our scan lists down to three targets instead of four. We would be in a position where the wolves would have almost equal number, so we would have to be very unlucky in that case to scan three people who end up being seers instead of wolves. And I would like the extra information from 3 people scanning in that case to provide tighter controls on scans; in this scenario I'm worried about them hijacking our process more than finding a wolf because I think we'll be tripping over wolves.

If Lathum is revealed as a wolf, then I'm fine with the above plan. We'll have established a numbers edge on the wolves; I'll be more worried about finding wolves than them giving us bad information at that stage.

[DaddyTorgo]

RendeR...who did you scan and what were the results?

[DaddyTorgo]

gonna go eat. I'll be back. And i hope to see the results of render's last scan.

and hoops i think you're right....render and i should scan CR instead, since we already have one scan in on you. So i think the list should be edited to

1. st.cronin - ntndeacon
2. Alan T - ntndeacon
3. Chief Rum ImTheCrew
4. ImTheCrew st.cronin
5. ntndeacon ImTheCrew
6. RendeR - ChiefRum
7. DaddyTorgo - ChiefRum
8. Lathum (presumed lynched)
9. hoopsguy - st.cronin

[RendeR]

Very interseting. So as I see it, Lathum talks way too much and posted himself in the noose for tonight. That added with my scan of Cronin telling me that Cronin is a wolf, and the fact that both lathum (wolf) and cronin(wolf) are the only ones voting for ITC tells me ITC is safe and we know two wolves.


IF my scan was accurate.....


VERY interesting indeed.

VOTE LATHUM

[st.cronin]

Well, I'm not a wolf. Somebody will double check that scan.

[DaddyTorgo]

waiting on ntn's results, but if everyone could go with my revised scanning plan that'd be great, thanks. The only change from cronin's was substituting chief rum for hoopsguy as the target for render+me

[hoopsguy]

Interesting results, RendeR - we should have results on Cronin under the current scan plan to verify that this is a good path for tomorrow. As well as ITC. I'm comfortable with our marching orders, barring any new information coming from NTN's scan.

[Alan T]

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.

Results unknown:

ntndeacon


This means That we have some groupings of dependicies:
Render - Imthecrew - Lathum - Cronin form some tie together
Chief - Daddy - Hoops - Alan form some tie together.

Ntndeacon is really all out in the cold.

So we need the CHief - Daddy - Hoops - Alan group to do the following: 1 scan Cronin, 1 Scan Render, 1 scan ntndeacon , 1 scan Imthecrew

We need the Render - Imthecrew - Cronin group to do the following:

1 scan Ntndeacon, 1 scan Chief, 1 scan either Daddy, Hoops or Alan.

That would be 2 scans on ntn, a second scan on both render and Cronin and Imthecrew to help us with tommorrow's direction, and get us started on the last few who all seem to be ok so far.

[DaddyTorgo]

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.

Results unknown:

ntndeacon


This means That we have some groupings of dependicies:
Render - Imthecrew - Lathum - Cronin form some tie together
Chief - Daddy - Hoops - Alan form some tie together.

Ntndeacon is really all out in the cold.

So we need the CHief - Daddy - Hoops - Alan group to do the following: 1 scan Cronin, 1 Scan Render, 1 scan ntndeacon , 1 scan Imthecrew

We need the Render - Imthecrew - Cronin group to do the following:

1 scan Ntndeacon, 1 scan Chief, 1 scan either Daddy, Hoops or Alan.

That would be 2 scans on ntn, a second scan on both render and Cronin and Imthecrew to help us with tommorrow's direction, and get us started on the last few who all seem to be ok so far.

how does that gel with the setup that cronin posted earlier alan? oh hell...i'll go and do the checking

[Alan T]

how does that gel with the setup that cronin posted earlier alan? oh hell...i'll go and do the checking

Not sure, but since Cronin is one of the top suspects for tommorrow, I really dont want him setting the agenda.

[DaddyTorgo]

So we need the CHief - Daddy - Hoops - Alan group to do the following: 1 scan Cronin, 1 Scan Render, 1 scan ntndeacon , 1 scan Imthecrew

We need the Render - Imthecrew - Cronin group to do the following:

1 scan Ntndeacon, 1 scan Chief, 1 scan either Daddy, Hoops or Alan.

That would be 2 scans on ntn, a second scan on both render and Cronin and Imthecrew to help us with tommorrow's direction, and get us started on the last few who all seem to be ok so far.

versus cronin's suggested plan (with my edit) to see how the two mesh and what changes we need to make

1. st.cronin - ntndeacon
2. Alan T - ntndeacon
3. Chief Rum ImTheCrew
4. ImTheCrew st.cronin
5. ntndeacon ImTheCrew
6. RendeR - ChiefRum
7. DaddyTorgo - ChiefRum
8. Lathum (presumed lynched)
9. hoopsguy - st.cronin

[st.cronin]

Not sure, but since Cronin is one of the top suspects for tommorrow, I really dont want him setting the agenda.

I put the agenda out there with the idea that it would be changed. My only thought is that its important we have a plan.

[Alan T]

Then I would suggest altering your choices on who Imthecrew scans, who you scan Daddy and Im not sure if we can count on ntndeacon, he hasnt joined in the conversation yet at all.

You also leave out anyone scanning me, or you or hoops, whom we should probably get someone on that group. You also have more people scanning Chief then I would right now and you dont need 2 people on cronin if he already had one scan on him today.

[DaddyTorgo]

the only differences between the two are me scanning render and ITC scanning either me, alan or hoops. Other than that the two lists are not mutually exclusive

[DaddyTorgo]

alan...we're on the same page. I'll scan render and then ITC can scan either me or you or hoops. And i guess we just have to count on ntn (he's usually good to be counted on, maybe just afk all day)

[DaddyTorgo]

1. st.cronin - ntndeacon
2. Alan T - ntndeacon
3. Chief Rum - ImTheCrew
4. ImTheCrew - AlanT, hoopsguy, DaddyTorgo (pick 1)
5. ntndeacon - ImTheCrew
6. RendeR - ChiefRum
7. DaddyTorgo - Render
8. Lathum - (presumed lynched)
9. hoopsguy - st.cronin

[Alan T]

Maybe this:

1. st.cronin - ntndeacon
2. Alan T - St.cronin
3. Chief Rum ImTheCrew
4. ImTheCrew Alan T
5. ntndeacon Hoopsguy
6. RendeR - ChiefRum
7. DaddyTorgo - ntndeacon
8. Lathum (presumed lynched)
9. hoopsguy - Render

That would leave out no one scanning DaddyTorgo for a second time. We'll catch up on him day 3

[DaddyTorgo]

that's the updated list with the changes suggested by alan and compiled by myself, but of course open to change

[DaddyTorgo]

*shrug* either way. Your way spreads it out more, the way i listed gets more in depth on people who havn't been scanned at least once.

Did the way you just posted gel with your little "4-somes" alan?

[Alan T]

*shrug* either way. Your way spreads it out more, the way i listed gets more in depth on people who havn't been scanned at least once.

Did the way you just posted gel with your little "4-somes" alan?

Yeah I tried to limit the dependancies on people so we didnt end up in any he's a wolf, NO he's a wolf arguements where we didnt know who to listen to.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay. Take a look at the two...i'm not really sure it matters all that much, as i know that i'm innocent, so if i'm the only difference it doesn't matter which plan we choose. We just all need to agree on a plan and be clear about which one

[DaddyTorgo]

oh wait. sorry...i misread. Scanning me for a second time? that's fine as i know i'm innocent

but i recuse myself from all deciding which of the scanning plans to go with, as that seems to be the major difference and i don't want to be seen as pushing to get myself not scanned again, nor do i feel that it's necessary though as i know i'm good.

So someone that isn't me will have to decide, although i'll be happy to take the decision and bold it and make sure it's in huge font+type so there's no mistakes

[hoopsguy]

I see Alan's plan accomplishes the double-down on scans, but there is an important difference. The person doing second scans here knows what the expected result is if they are a wolf. So I would prefer that we are focusing two "seers" on those who have not been scanned yet. I think this makes it a little more interesting for someone to fudge their results, as they don't have an "expected outcome" to fall back on along with their "25% wrong" excuse.

I think having double-scans on the people who have come up "wolf" already - Cronin and ITC (potentially dubious) makes sense, followed by the people who have been non-scanned.

And I'm OK with however many people want to scan me as well, just to make sure that there is not some impression from this post that I'm trying to avoid 2nd/3rd/whatever scans.

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops...the person doing the second scan "here" meaning what? the person doing the second scan in alan's plan, or in "my" plan?

[hoopsguy]

Second scan in Alan's, which assumes the first scan during Night 0 (released Day 1). I would prefer we are validating suspected wolves and people who have not been scanned up to this point.

[DaddyTorgo]

Second scan in Alan's, which assumes the first scan during Night 0 (released Day 1). I would prefer we are validating suspected wolves and people who have not been scanned up to this point.

makes sense to me. Sounds good. Alan's plan it is then?

[hoopsguy]

Well, I'm actually asking for a modification on Alan's plan that is closer to Cronin's plan. I want to have two people each on the "fingered wolves" - Cronin and ITC, and two people on people who have not been scanned yet - Rum and NTN (am I missing anyone who hasn't been scanned once besides these two?).

If we don't have enough for multiple scans on all of these people, I would then suggest a single scan on the wolves and two on the unscanned.

[DaddyTorgo]

Well, I'm actually asking for a modification on Alan's plan that is closer to Cronin's plan. I want to have two people each on the "fingered wolves" - Cronin and ITC, and two people on people who have not been scanned yet - Rum and NTN (am I missing anyone who hasn't been scanned once besides these two?).

If we don't have enough for multiple scans on all of these people, I would then suggest a single scan on the wolves and two on the unscanned.

aaaaah. Okay. Well 2 on each of the unscanned=4+2 each on the wolves=8. So that'd work, yeah

[DaddyTorgo]

scans are our night actions, right? they're not due in 45 minutes are they?

[hoopsguy]

I'll put out my thoughts on who should scan who, if we are going to adopt that strategy. But I wouldn't mind some back-and-forth between people between now and the deadline before moving forward with it. Also, we have to be willing to re-evaluate if Lathum shows up as a seer (duh).

[hoopsguy]

I'm working under the impression that this is a standard day/night cycle and PMs for night actions are not due until morning.

[Alan T]

I dont like the idea of ignoring people who already had 1 good scan (myself included) just in case they got lucky and really are bad.

Some of the people you suggest having a second and third scan on them which I think is overdoing scans in places and lessen our chance of coverage in others.

[DaddyTorgo]

I dont like the idea of ignoring people who already had 1 good scan (myself included) just in case they got lucky and really are bad.

Some of the people you suggest having a second and third scan on them which I think is overdoing scans in places and lessen our chance of coverage in others.

well i think that's where we have to make the call...being "riskier" vs. "playing it safe." either way though, we will have time to get 2 scans of everyone by the time we're in danger of losing the game

[path12]

Deadline. Let me tally the votes.

[path12]

Final vote total:

Lathum (6): InTheCrew (44), DaddyTorgo (58), hoopsguy (63), Chief Rum (71), Alan T (81), RendeR (121)

InTheCrew (2): Lathum (41), st.cronin (43)

No vote: ntndeacon

The class was shaken to know that there were wolves amongst them. Mr. Felix had left for the local news station to try and, well, not exactly 'cover up' what was happening -- more like 'divert the issue' until things could be brought under control.

Everybody did their scans. Lathum shouted "I've got one! It's ImTheCrew!" ITC shouted back "Oh yeah? Lathum is the wolf!" In the ensuing chaos DaddyTorgo piped up "I got Lathum too!" and the decision was made. "We should really try and come up with a plan here..." mused Alan T.

Lathum was rounded up and killed with a stake. "Hmmm, that seemed kind of easy", said st.cronin. "I'm kind of new to the school, but do they usually just go limp like that?" asked RendeR. "Not usually" replied Chief Rum.

They waited for Lathum to change into a wolf. And waited. And waited.

hoopsguy finally spoke up: "Crap. What was that incantation again?" and went back to his books.

LATHUM WAS A STUDENT.

NIGHT 1 IS UNDERWAY. ACTIONS ARE DUE BY 9AM EASTERN TOMORROW. DON'T EXPECT RESULTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

[st.cronin]

Well, that was unexpected.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so we have two people who viewed Lathum as a wolf - me and Daddy Torgo. We both have one scan suggesting we are good, but obviously we have to put additional resources towards us to see if there is reasonable suspicion if we were full of crap.

Lathum had ITC as a wolf, so we know that he was being honest with his 75%. Probably should have a second scan on him tonight as well.

Since I'm obviously looking pretty suspicious at this point I'll defer to others on coordinating activity here beyond these thoughts. I should be around for the next couple of hours and will participate in the discussion as much as people want me to. I know that I reported my results honestly today (albeit incorrectly), but obviously others don't have the luxury of knowing this.

[DaddyTorgo]

Lathum had ITC as a wolf, so we know that he was being honest with his 75%. Probably should have a second scan on him tonight as well.



we don't know anything about ITC, except for the fact that lathum was 75% sure he was a wolf.

and obviously if i can say i'm 75% sure lathum is a wolf and he isn't....we're definately going to see some problems coming out of that. i can't speak for hoops, but if he's truthful too, then we've seriously seen the tiny odds come to bite us in the butt at least once.

along with hoops, since this result obviously puts me under suspiscion, although i know i'm good, i will defer to the student-group to decide where i should direct my scan

[RendeR]

I will be scanning rummy.

[st.cronin]

My guess is anybody who said "wolf" on day 1 is much more likely to be a wolf than a student. In a game this small, and with all these scans, no way would a wolf do anything but try to spread confusion on day 1.

Of course, there is some self-interest there as well - I reported DT as student. I also know I am a student.

[st.cronin]

My scan went for ntndeacon, as I said it would.

[RendeR]

My guess is anybody who said "wolf" on day 1 is much more likely to be a wolf than a student. In a game this small, and with all these scans, no way would a wolf do anything but try to spread confusion on day 1.

Of course, there is some self-interest there as well - I reported DT as student. I also know I am a student.

But my 75% says you're a wolf ;)

[st.cronin]

But my 75% says you're a wolf ;)

To paraphrase Lathum, your math is off.

[st.cronin]

I'm really surprised at the lack of discussion.

[RendeR]

We're all just dumbfounded that lathum was a student after he did his best to act like he was covering his furry werewolf butt ;)

[hoopsguy]

Path, just doing a quick review of the rules - are there any special wolf roles? Just want to make sure that we are correctly interpreting the available data.

No cunning wolf?

Also, I think it makes sense that DaddyT not scan me and I not scan him. We obviously both have reason to believe the other is a wolf if we are villagers. That makes sense to me when I type it - hopefully it does to others when they read it. So, I'm willing to go along with someone's plan for scanning but I would strongly prefer not to scan DaddyT because I'll be rooting for a result and it will have potential to be seen as self-serving.

[ntndeacon]

So to update our list:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf


Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.

sorry I did not get to vote on day 1. but I did scan someone. I scanned Chief Rum and he came up student

[Lathum]

Lathum talks way too much and posted himself in the noose for tonight.

:rolleyes:

[Lathum]

good luck all, I'm not sure what else I could have done.

[RendeR]

good luck all, I'm not sure what else I could have done.


Honestly, based on the, now obviously innacurate, readings people got on you, and the way things fell out, the more you posted the more it made you look like a wolf.

My vote got swayed by that and the fact that my scan labeled Cronin and you two were the only ones voting for ITC. Sorry man, but the circumstantial evidence painted you furry. =(

[ntndeacon]

Then I would suggest altering your choices on who Imthecrew scans, who you scan Daddy and Im not sure if we can count on ntndeacon, he hasnt joined in the conversation yet at all.

You also leave out anyone scanning me, or you or hoops, whom we should probably get someone on that group. You also have more people scanning Chief then I would right now and you dont need 2 people on cronin if he already had one scan on him today.

I will be willing to scan whoever. It was just a long day.

[Lathum]

Honestly, based on the, now obviously innacurate, readings people got on you, and the way things fell out, the more you posted the more it made you look like a wolf.



don't take this the wrong way but once you play in enough games you realize I was a goner either way. I'm not gonna go down without a fight, and the more discussion generated the better for the good guys.

[DaddyTorgo]

sorry lathum. strictly playin the percentages brotha. I'm as much as student as you though, fyi.

And i agree with hoops. The two of us should definately scan someone else rather than scanning each other.

[ntndeacon]

Does it seem to anyone else that three that we really should be looking at are DaddyTorgo, st. cronin, and ImTheCrew? Those could easily be all three of the wolves.

Assuming Render's viewing was both accurate and accurately reported, then cronin's viewing of DT has to be viewed as flawed. in addition to ITC being viewed as a wolf by a now known seer. They are certainly at the top of the do not trust list at the very least.

[ntndeacon]

Path, just doing a quick review of the rules - are there any special wolf roles? Just want to make sure that we are correctly interpreting the available data.

No cunning wolf?

Also, I think it makes sense that DaddyT not scan me and I not scan him. We obviously both have reason to believe the other is a wolf if we are villagers. That makes sense to me when I type it - hopefully it does to others when they read it. So, I'm willing to go along with someone's plan for scanning but I would strongly prefer not to scan DaddyT because I'll be rooting for a result and it will have potential to be seen as self-serving.

hoops if you want I will scan DT instead and let you scan ITC. that would be fine with me.

[hoopsguy]

I don't see a master plan for us to follow. The one Alan proposed prior to results has no one scanning DT, which probably is not the right way to go given our results.

I'll submit a scan now, but be willing to change it. I won't scan Cronin (could be perceived as "protecting" him), Alan (who scanned me as good), DaddyT (also had Lathum incorrectly as wolf) or Crew (Lathum's scan). So I'll be looking to scan someone who has a profile not as closely associated, for good or bad with me up to this point in the game.

[Alan T]

I still say we need to make sure people in one grouping don't scan each other as that gives the best way for a wolf to slip through.

Daddytorgo, Hoops, Alan , Ntndeacon and Chief should not scan each other tonight.

Imthecrew, Cronin, Render should not scan each other.

Top suspects right now that have wolf claims against them are:

Imthecrew
Cronin

Both because they were pointed out as a possible wolf by someone else.

Next tier of people we need more info on are:

Render
Hoopsguy
Daddytorgo

All of whom were scanned once as good, but pointed people out as wolves.

[Alan T]

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student.

[Alan T]

I would do something like:

Hoopsguy scans Render
Daddytorgo scans ntndeacon
Render scans Alan
Cronin scans Chief
Alan scans Cronin
Chief scans Imthecrew
Imthecrew scans Daddytorgo
Ntndeacon scans Cronin

[st.cronin]

I already sent in my scan, ntn. I guess I could change it.

[DaddyTorgo]

i will send in my scan for NTN before I go to bed.

[ntndeacon]

I just sent my scan in . it was for ITC. If cronin has a scan in for me then my viewing him seems to me as spite. and as he let on that he wanted to scan me before the votes were cast...I will go to another candidate I believe is a wolf.

[path12]

Path, just doing a quick review of the rules - are there any special wolf roles? Just want to make sure that we are correctly interpreting the available data.

No cunning wolf?



All roles are as detailed as in the rules. There are no hidden roles.

[ntndeacon]

I still say we need to make sure people in one grouping don't scan each other as that gives the best way for a wolf to slip through.

Daddytorgo, Hoops, Alan , Ntndeacon and Chief should not scan each other tonight.

Imthecrew, Cronin, Render should not scan each other.

Top suspects right now that have wolf claims against them are:

Imthecrew
Cronin

Both because they were pointed out as a possible wolf by someone else.

Next tier of people we need more info on are:

Render
Hoopsguy
Daddytorgo

All of whom were scanned once as good, but pointed people out as wolves.


just a note I would put DaddyTorgo and Render ahead of Hoopsguy due to the suspicion that is on those that "scanned" since remember that ITC scanned Render and st. cronin scanned DT.

[Chief Rum]

Sorry, Lathum. Thanks for taking it well. Obviously we were hoodwinked by wolves today. It will be harder for them to play a double int he future, but obviously, that doesn't help you.

My head is spinning a bit from all the plans and changes and late scan reveals, but it seems I am to scan ITC. I am fine with that, and will send that in.

[hoopsguy]

I had already sent my order in for RendeR, so that works out nicely - don't need to send another PM to the moderator.

From my perspective, I don't know if there was a "hoodwinking" that took place yesterday. Guess that depends on DaddyTorgo.

[DaddyTorgo]

no hoodwinking here. i'm a student. like i said, guess we just hit the small probability that we were both deceived.

[path12]

OK, I'm here. Will process night now.

[Alan T]

Got my pm results, I also saw St.Cronin show up as a wolf.

[Alan T]

Continuing from yesterday's list will add on more from today.


Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.
Alan T says St.cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student.

[st.cronin]

Results are back, ntndeacon is a student.

[path12]

You all work late into the night doing your scans. The unfamiliar process saps your energy and you all fall fast asleep as soon as you are done.

You awake to find RendeR with his throat ripped out. Mr. Felix will not be happy about this at all. Not to mention RendeR, who you realize is a fellow student.

DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY. DEADLINE IS 9PM EASTERN.

[st.cronin]

hmmmmm

[st.cronin]

Vote ImTheCrew

ImTheCrew and myself are the only ones accused of being a wolf by a KNOWN student. I know I'm a student, but the odds are that ITC is a wolf. Hence my vote.

[Lathum]

I am looking forward to reading along with this today

[st.cronin]

I still think we have to look at people who are crying "wolf." Its to the wolves advantage to MAXIMIZE the number of candidates for a lynch - that way they can control the vote.

I've cleared two people - DaddyTorgo, and ntndeacon. There is no way, in a game like this, that a wolf would clear ANYBODY.

That gives us hoopsguy, DaddyTorgo, and AlanT.

unvote ImTheCrew
vote AlanT

Assuming Alan is a wolf - he knew Renders scan was off, knew that Render was going to be killed, thus knew it was safe to accuse me of being a wolf.

[Alan T]

I still think we have to look at people who are crying "wolf." Its to the wolves advantage to MAXIMIZE the number of candidates for a lynch - that way they can control the vote.

I've cleared two people - DaddyTorgo, and ntndeacon. There is no way, in a game like this, that a wolf would clear ANYBODY.

That gives us hoopsguy, DaddyTorgo, and AlanT.

unvote ImTheCrew
vote AlanT

Assuming Alan is a wolf - he knew Renders scan was off, knew that Render was going to be killed, thus knew it was safe to accuse me of being a wolf.

Thats what you would like people to think. Of course we won't allow the fact that everyone who has scanned you has showed you to be a Wolf, and everyone who has scanned me so far has shown me to be a student.

The only reason I didn't vote you immediately is I wanted to see ntndeacon's results as well. Since I know Render was good yesterday, I know there was no funny business with him saying you were a wolf. I know I am a student, so Im not pulling anything. Is it possible that we both got unlucky with our scan of you? Sure.. but your reaction makes me find that unlikely.

I suspected you yesterday even before Render's coming out to find you a wolf just based on how you played, and I will be really suprised if you end up a student.

[Alan T]

Just so everyone understands what Cronin wants you to believe:

Chief failed a 75% chance of scanning me
Render failed a 75% chance of scanning him
I failed a 75% chance of scanning him
Ntndeacon's scan which I am guessing will come back as wolf also fails a 75% chance of scanning him.

There is alot of math that makes Cronin's claim somewhat unlikely. Instead what is more probible is he killed the person who planned on scanning me to try to create doubt, but unfortunatly for him the math just doesn't stand up.

[st.cronin]

Thats what you would like people to think. Of course we won't allow the fact that everyone who has scanned you has showed you to be a Wolf, and everyone who has scanned me so far has shown me to be a student.

The only reason I didn't vote you immediately is I wanted to see ntndeacon's results as well. Since I know Render was good yesterday, I know there was no funny business with him saying you were a wolf. I know I am a student, so Im not pulling anything. Is it possible that we both got unlucky with our scan of you? Sure.. but your reaction makes me find that unlikely.

I suspected you yesterday even before Render's coming out to find you a wolf just based on how you played, and I will be really suprised if you end up a student.

As surprised as you were to find Lathum a student?

Your use of "everyone" really distorts the case. There are 2 accusations against me - the same # as were against Lathum. There is 1 person clearing you, Chief Rum. Hardly overwhelming evidence either way.

I also note you didn't comment on my main point, which is what basic wolf strategy in this game must neccesarily be - to make accusations, and maximize candidates. Think about it.

[st.cronin]

Just so everyone understands what Cronin wants you to believe:

Chief failed a 75% chance of scanning me
Render failed a 75% chance of scanning him
I failed a 75% chance of scanning him
Ntndeacon's scan which I am guessing will come back as wolf also fails a 75% chance of scanning him.

There is alot of math that makes Cronin's claim somewhat unlikely. Instead what is more probible is he killed the person who planned on scanning me to try to create doubt, but unfortunatly for him the math just doesn't stand up.


Why would I kill the person who had scanned me and called me wolf? That would be really, really dumb.

[st.cronin]

dola

Those odds are not what I believe. What I believe is that you are a wolf, and possibly that Chief Rum is too. If I believed that both of you were students, and had just rolled unlucky, I would say so.

[Alan T]

As surprised as you were to find Lathum a student?

Your use of "everyone" really distorts the case. There are 2 accusations against me - the same # as were against Lathum. There is 1 person clearing you, Chief Rum. Hardly overwhelming evidence either way.

I also note you didn't comment on my main point, which is what basic wolf strategy in this game must neccesarily be - to make accusations, and maximize candidates. Think about it.

I didn't maximize any candidates. Going into today we had two candidates. You and Imthecrew. I didn't bring either of you into this, Render and Lathum who both have been found good did. Your comment about me maximizing candidates is completely a distraction tactic so I chose to ignore it. I have just found confirmation to back Render's scan.

Why would I kill the person who had scanned me and called me wolf? That would be really, really dumb.

Either that or you knew I planned on scanning you and he planned on scanning me and the only thing you could do was either hope for lucky dice rolls or have this strat as a backup plan which you are using to cause doubt. Like I said before I'm waiting for ntn to return with his results before I cast a vote, but your comments sure are removing much doubt i had about you.

[Alan T]

dola

Those odds are not what I believe. What I believe is that you are a wolf, and possibly that Chief Rum is too. If I believed that both of you were students, and had just rolled unlucky, I would say so.

Well lucky for you , that according to my list you had a chance to scan chief last night but chose not to do so.

Im not trying to convince you that you are a wolf, Im just waiting for ntn's results to come back. I know I'm good, and I believe you are bad, and so far all of the info we have supports that. If others feel like believing your fairy tale then so be it. :) I am guessing most people will be a little more sensible than that and stick to the facts.

[st.cronin]

Either that or you knew I planned on scanning you and he planned on scanning me and the only thing you could do was either hope for lucky dice rolls or have this strat as a backup plan which you are using to cause doubt. Like I said before I'm waiting for ntn to return with his results before I cast a vote, but your comments sure are removing much doubt i had about you.

Ntn said he wasn't going to scan me. You're just wrong, since I knew you were planning to scan me the smart play would have been to kill YOU, not the guy that already HAD scanned me.

We'll see what else comes out today. I suppose I might be wrong about you (I was wrong about Lathum), but I doubt it.

[Alan T]

Ntn said he wasn't going to scan me. You're just wrong, since I knew you were planning to scan me the smart play would have been to kill YOU, not the guy that already HAD scanned me.

We'll see what else comes out today. I suppose I might be wrong about you (I was wrong about Lathum), but I doubt it.


Well if he is good, I sure hope he scans you. Like I said before its very important to put extra scans on those most likely bad. Right now we have 2 good guys with scans of you that show you are bad. THats pretty damning already for you. We'll see how the rest of the scans turn up.

[st.cronin]

Well lucky for you , that according to my list you had a chance to scan chief last night but chose not to do so.

Good lord, I said OVER AND OVER AGAIN I WAS PLANNING TO SCAN NTNDEACON. I even asked, "hey do you want me to scan somebody else?" I got zero guidance whatsoever.

[ImTheCrew]

daddy torgo is a student

[DaddyTorgo]

Night 1 Result: I scanned NTNDEACON. He came up a WOLF.

[Alan T]

Good lord, I said OVER AND OVER AGAIN I WAS PLANNING TO SCAN NTNDEACON. I even asked, "hey do you want me to scan somebody else?" I got zero guidance whatsoever.


I posted who I thought people should scan. You chose to ignore my comment then. If you ask for people's thoughts just for show then its one thing. If you honestly want people's opinions then you should listen to them when they are given.

[st.cronin]

Well, that certainly puts me in a pickle.

[Alan T]

Night 1 Result: I scanned NTNDEACON. He came up a WOLF.

So now we have another conflict in stories. Cronin says ntndeacon is a student, DaddyTorgo says Ntn is a wolf.

Cronin is under suspicion because 2 different good guys scanned him as bad. DT is under suspicion because of Lathum turning up good after both he and hoops scanned him as bad.

So this is a fun little twist.

[Alan T]

So now we have another conflict in stories. Cronin says ntndeacon is a student, DaddyTorgo says Ntn is a wolf.

Cronin is under suspicion because 2 different good guys scanned him as bad. DT is under suspicion because of Lathum turning up good after both he and hoops scanned him as bad.

So this is a fun little twist.

And to add to this both of the top two wolf candidates coming into today (Imthecrew and cronin) are the only two who have scanned daddytorgo and both say he is a student.

[st.cronin]

I posted who I thought people should scan. You chose to ignore my comment then. If you ask for people's thoughts just for show then its one thing. If you honestly want people's opinions then you should listen to them when they are given.

Honestly, this post burns me. Several people post several DIFFERENT lists of scan plans. I said over and over who I was going to scan, giving anybody who thought it was a bad idea a chance to say "hey, cronin, why don't you scan so and so." But nobody said anything. So I'm supposed to just know to change my scan?

[Alan T]

Honestly, this post burns me. Several people post several DIFFERENT lists of scan plans. I said over and over who I was going to scan, giving anybody who thought it was a bad idea a chance to say "hey, cronin, why don't you scan so and so." But nobody said anything. So I'm supposed to just know to change my scan?

Hey you dont have to listen to my opinion, but to say NOONE commented is a lie. that is my point. Since I obviously stated numerous times my thoughts on things. Either way, I am guessing this whole thing is for show and you don't really have the village's best interests at heart.

[st.cronin]

Assuming I don't get lynched today:

I am planning to scan Alan T tonight.

Plan accordingly.

[Alan T]

Assuming I don't get lynched today:

I am planning to scan Alan T tonight.

Plan accordingly.

Just what I want, a wolf to scan me. Cool. Maybe it means I will live till night 3.

[hoopsguy]

Well, the good news is that my scan on RendeR shows him as a student. The bad news is that he is dead so that provides no new value for us.

[DaddyTorgo]

So now we have another conflict in stories. Cronin says ntndeacon is a student, DaddyTorgo says Ntn is a wolf.

Cronin is under suspicion because 2 different good guys scanned him as bad. DT is under suspicion because of Lathum turning up good after both he and hoops scanned him as bad.

So this is a fun little twist.

i'd like to point out that 2 people scanned me as good though.

[Alan T]

i'd like to point out that 2 people scanned me as good though.


You obviously haven't read far enough since I already said that!

[st.cronin]

This is the order of posts:

I would do something like:

Hoopsguy scans Render
Daddytorgo scans ntndeacon
Render scans Alan
Cronin scans Chief
Alan scans Cronin
Chief scans Imthecrew
Imthecrew scans Daddytorgo
Ntndeacon scans Cronin

Next, I posted that I had already sent in a scan order for ntn, and wondered if I should change it. Next comes:

i will send in my scan for NTN before I go to bed.

I just sent my scan in . it was for ITC. If cronin has a scan in for me then my viewing him seems to me as spite. and as he let on that he wanted to scan me before the votes were cast...I will go to another candidate I believe is a wolf.

So, Alan, you tell me what, as a villager, I'm supposed to do in that situation.

[DaddyTorgo]

oh. of course it's the 2 wolf suspects

what i think we're forgetting here is that the wolves don't know one another (and IIRC from the rules, not going back to look) can't communicate UNTIL they find one another.

so to believe that ITC+Cronin are covering for me and we're all 3 wolves, would mean that we had some serious luck on night zero on finding each other (perfect luck as a matter of fact) and are orchestrating this.

i don't know what to think about itc and cronin and it is weird they've both been the only ones to scan me and they're the 2 wolf candidates. i'm thinking likely 1 is a wolf and the other got a bad die-roll though.

[Alan T]

This is the order of posts:



Next, I posted that I had already sent in a scan order for ntn, and wondered if I should change it. Next comes:





So, Alan, you tell me what, as a villager, I'm supposed to do in that situation.

Just say you chose to go against other people's opinions on who to scan. Not that no one commented on it like you did say.

[st.cronin]

Just say you chose to go against other people's opinions on who to scan. Not that no one commented on it like you did say.

Except that I had said who I was planning to scan looooooooooooooong before anybody put together a list. So you all chose to ignore MY plan.

[st.cronin]

what i think we're forgetting here is that the wolves don't know one another (and IIRC from the rules, not going back to look) can't communicate UNTIL they find one another.

I don't think this is true, I think that was the original ruleset.

[Alan T]

Except that I had said who I was planning to scan looooooooooooooong before anybody put together a list. So you all chose to ignore MY plan.

Thats right, I definitly said yesterday that I didn't want you driving the agenda of who to scan whom since you were 1 of the 2 suspects we had at the end of the day.

[st.cronin]

Thats right, I definitly said yesterday that I didn't want you driving the agenda of who to scan whom since you were 1 of the 2 suspects we had at the end of the day.

Yes, but, you know - you didn't post your plan until AFTER I had sent in my scan. Prior to that, as far as I can tell, everybody was working under the assumption I was going to scan ntndeacon. So you're making this seem like some anti-village move on my part is just incredibly manipulative.

I also just noticed who Render said he was going to scan: Chief Rum, the guy who cleared Alan.

[Alan T]

Yes, but, you know - you didn't post your plan until AFTER I had sent in my scan. Prior to that, as far as I can tell, everybody was working under the assumption I was going to scan ntndeacon. So you're making this seem like some anti-village move on my part is just incredibly manipulative.

I also just noticed who Render said he was going to scan: Chief Rum, the guy who cleared Alan.

Im sure you noticed that before you killed him.

[st.cronin]

Im sure you noticed that before you killed him.

No, I just noticed that now. Surely I would have brought it up right away, as it puts Chief (and therefore you) in a worse light.

[Alan T]

No, I just noticed that now. Surely I would have brought it up right away, as it puts Chief (and therefore you) in a worse light.

I think i am in a pretty good light actually, and will be even better after you are lynched

[st.cronin]

I think i am in a pretty good light actually, and will be even better after you are lynched

Bring it on, then. Can't wait to read the posts after I turn up good. I never mind being lynched as a villager, especially when my death points a finger at a wolf (see: Lathum in Anxiety's homo game). Usually when we go at it like this, we end up both good, but there is virtually no doubt in my mind right now that you are a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Does anyone have a recap of the scans, listed by Day? I will try to put this together at some point, but my access today is pretty sporadic.

[st.cronin]

Day 1:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student.

Day 2:

AlanT says st.cronin is a wolf
DaddyTorgo says ntndeacon is a wolf
st.cronin says ntndeacon is a student

That's what I've got.

[st.cronin]

Day 1:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student

Day 2:

AlanT says st.cronin is a wolf
DaddyTorgo says ntndeacon is a wolf
st.cronin says ntndeacon is a student
hoopsguy says Render is a student
ImTheCrew says DaddyTorgo is a student



edited... still waiting on ntndeacon and Chief Rum for today, I think.

[hoopsguy]

OK, we've got two people that were identified as wolves on day 1 by known students. Obviously this isn't fool-proof, but I think it makes sense to look hard at Cronin and Crew.

I would like to have a better feel on DT (suspect he feels the same way about me if a student) but unless there is new info forthcoming I don't think he is where my vote is going today.

[hoopsguy]

Also, we can't work with the idea that the wolves voted together on this if they don't start off knowing each other. Instead each of them puts an order in, and Path determines who gets killed based on those votes. So if there are wolves that are communicating with each other, they would likely have put votes in together, but the chances of all three wolves working in coordination probably was not high for last night's actions.

This goes against Cronin's argument "it would be pretty stupid for me to kill a person who said I was a wolf". Yes, but if you don't get to make that call then ...

[Chief Rum]

OOG: Wow, for a small game, this is all pretty messed up and head twisty. Cool idea, path.

IG: Okay, lots to go over. I'll get the scan out first. ITC came up as a WOLF.

I believe that is the second time he has done so.

My thinking sorta goes along with AlanT, although I agree with stcronin that Render's death and the plan to scan AlanT seem too coincidental. But then I myself have already scanned AlanT and he came up a student. Since I am a student, I know the odds are strong that I am right. Until someone comes out with AlanT as a wolf froma scan, I have to believe he is a student.

So that means st. cronin is very wolfish to me. Put him along with ITC, and I say we still have two players who are very clearly wolves at this point.

cronin, I also saw your post about Render's scan. I saw that, too, last night, but I was on several lists to be scanned by several people last night. I even said how confusing it all was with the plans out there (I went with the last one, AlanT's). I had no idea who was going to scan me, but when I went to bed last night, I figured it would be you (in Alan's plan), not Render. I don't know why the wolves chose Render, but I highly doubt it has anything to do with me. More likely they were trying to create this exact doubt about AlanT--or more likely, that's what you're trying to do, I should say.

[path12]

OOG: Wow, for a small game, this is all pretty messed up and head twisty. Cool idea, path.

Thanks, but I have to confess that like most WW games, it's my adaptation of someone else's idea. Glad you're enjoying it though. I am.

[hoopsguy]

From where I sit, both Cronin and Crew seem like equally appealing candidates. Both have been scanned and called out as a wolf by a confirmed student and a second person.

I think I have a slightly higher level of trust for Alan's scan on Cronin because he scanned me as a student, but certainly would be comfortable backing either of these two today given the information available. Do people see a compelling reason to go with one over the other (outside of the two parties involved, who would definitely prefer not to be lynched)?

[ntndeacon]

just got on. Scanned ITC. He came up wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

is that 3 for ITC as a wolf now?

or just 2?

cuz if that's 3, regardless of your higher level of trust in alan's scan of cronin hoops, that seems pretty damming

[ntndeacon]

I didn't maximize any candidates. Going into today we had two candidates. You and Imthecrew. I didn't bring either of you into this, Render and Lathum who both have been found good did. Your comment about me maximizing candidates is completely a distraction tactic so I chose to ignore it. I have just found confirmation to back Render's scan.



Either that or you knew I planned on scanning you and he planned on scanning me and the only thing you could do was either hope for lucky dice rolls or have this strat as a backup plan which you are using to cause doubt. Like I said before I'm waiting for ntn to return with his results before I cast a vote, but your comments sure are removing much doubt i had about you.


I think we had 3 candidates yesterday.until I see scans on DT from folks itrust more I think DT is a wolf too.

[Alan T]

Trying to take a step back at the two, I think right now I am favoring going for Cronin more than Imthecrew right now because of the chain of whom vouched for whom.

Lathum (known good) claimed Imthecrew is a wolf.
Render (known good) claimed St.cronin is a wolf

Those two even out.

Alan says Cronin is a wolf
Chief says Imthecrew is a wolf.

Both players are not definites and even out on their merits alone.

Chief Rum scanned Alan and said Alan is a good guy
Ntndeacon scanned Chief and said he is a good guy.

Cronin and DT both claim opposite things about Ntndeacon putting his scan into doubt.

What it leaves everyone with is:

A) Both Chief and Alan could be good. Win/win
B) Both Chief and Alan could be bad. Lose/Lose
C) Only one of the two could be bad, but which?

So for arguement sake, if Chief is bad, it calls into question his scan of me and the whole stack of cards comes tumbling down. If Chief is good and Im bad, he could have had an unlucky scan but most likely would have turned me in originally.

So I think both seem like good options, just the pedigree behind the chain pointing a finger at cronin seems strongest right now. I think before any of us make a decision, we need to hear the rest of the night's scans first. some are still outstanding.

[Chief Rum]

Well, this is a two job day for me, and I am out the door. I will have to vote now.

The late third vote for ITC as a wolf, and with me also getting him as a wolf, moves him ahead of st. cronin, IMO.

VOTE IMTHECREW

Although I am curious how we got two scans on ITC last night. Was that the plan? Of course, there were several plans, so maybe that's what happened there.

See y'all tonight.

[Alan T]

nevermind my last post, i wrote it up while ntndeacon was here. So, if there are 3 against imthecrew, he is where I would go for today. Who's scans are we still missing, or is that most of them?

[Chief Rum]

Trying to take a step back at the two, I think right now I am favoring going for Cronin more than Imthecrew right now because of the chain of whom vouched for whom.

Lathum (known good) claimed Imthecrew is a wolf.
Render (known good) claimed St.cronin is a wolf

Those two even out.

Alan says Cronin is a wolf
Chief says Imthecrew is a wolf.

Both players are not definites and even out on their merits alone.

Chief Rum scanned Alan and said Alan is a good guy
Ntndeacon scanned Chief and said he is a good guy.

Cronin and DT both claim opposite things about Ntndeacon putting his scan into doubt.

What it leaves everyone with is:

A) Both Chief and Alan could be good. Win/win
B) Both Chief and Alan could be bad. Lose/Lose
C) Only one of the two could be bad, but which?

So for arguement sake, if Chief is bad, it calls into question his scan of me and the whole stack of cards comes tumbling down. If Chief is good and Im bad, he could have had an unlucky scan but most likely would have turned me in originally.

So I think both seem like good options, just the pedigree behind the chain pointing a finger at cronin seems strongest right now. I think before any of us make a decision, we need to hear the rest of the night's scans first. some are still outstanding.

I agree with your logic above. I can't wait, though, so I hope my vote for ITC proves useful. I feel either way we're nabbing a wolf, though. Whoever doesn't die today, I would think would be the strongest candidate tomorrow for sure.

[ntndeacon]

Well if he is good, I sure hope he scans you. Like I said before its very important to put extra scans on those most likely bad. Right now we have 2 good guys with scans of you that show you are bad. THats pretty damning already for you. We'll see how the rest of the scans turn up.

perhaps I should have scanned him. I foresaw both of us calling the other a wolfSo I went to look at someone who had not claimed to be looking at me tonight. HAving said that I do believe that st. cronin is a wolf as well.

[Alan T]

I agree with your logic above. I can't wait, though, so I hope my vote for ITC proves useful. I feel either way we're nabbing a wolf, though. Whoever doesn't die today, I would think would be the strongest candidate tomorrow for sure.

Well the only issue that I worry about here is we're basing some of that on Ntndeacon's word which right now isn't looking too trustworthy. It appears that if Cronin and Ntn both are indeed wolves, they would have communication now with each other based on cronin's scan of ntn last night.

So part of me is wondering if ntn is throwing a diversion to keep cronin alive another day. Whether or not imthecrew is a wolf is an interesting decision then as ntn might have scanned someone else and instead just said he scanned ITC to buy cronin time.. or he could have scanned him and have him not turn up as a wolf for him... or this whole conspiracy theory could be unfounded and my mind running off with things.

I agree though if there are 3 wolf scans on ITC, its hard to argue going for that today.

[ntndeacon]

daddy torgo is a student

Night 1 Result: I scanned NTNDEACON. He came up a WOLF.

I really can't say I am surprised by either of these results. I am taking nothing that any of my top 3 candidates for wolfdom as gospel.

[ntndeacon]

Well the only issue that I worry about here is we're basing some of that on Ntndeacon's word which right now isn't looking too trustworthy. It appears that if Cronin and Ntn both are indeed wolves, they would have communication now with each other based on cronin's scan of ntn last night.

So part of me is wondering if ntn is throwing a diversion to keep cronin alive another day. Whether or not imthecrew is a wolf is an interesting decision then as ntn might have scanned someone else and instead just said he scanned ITC to buy cronin time.. or he could have scanned him and have him not turn up as a wolf for him... or this whole conspiracy theory could be unfounded and my mind running off with things.

I agree though if there are 3 wolf scans on ITC, its hard to argue going for that today.


A problem with your idea of my diversionary tactics is that I have said who ibelieve to be the 3 wolves. I scanned one of those 3. If the group wants to vote for st. cronin over ITC or DT I have no qualms whatsoever. But I believe those 3 are the wolves. so the fact that DT claims to have scanned me and it came up wolf is inconsequential to me. To be honest Isort of expected st. cronin to "scan" me as a wolf too. I guess he thought he could use the cover morethan the doubt thrown on me.

[hoopsguy]

Interesting game so far - I can't remember another day where I've been as passive about following the group. But I don't have meaningful info to provide, as I've scanned the two dead guys.

VOTE IMTHECREW

[DaddyTorgo]

problem with your analysis ntn is that i'm no wolf.

i was out the door early on this one advocating that everyone needed to reveal their scans and was insturmental yesterday both in putting forth the need for a "plan" of scans, as well as trying to modify them to get them so that there was redundancy (on everyone too, go back and look, it's not like i was trying to hide anyone).

your insistence that i am a wolf, based on your one scan of me (which we know there's a 25% chance could be wrong, and we've seen 2 people get wrong scans...or at least one get one wrong (me) and one either get one wrong or lie (hoops) when talking about lathum, so it's not inconceivable that you could have gotten the bad % and saw me as a wolf; anyways, this insistence that i am a wolf is only moving you further up my suspect list.

you need to make the critical leap in this game that there are villagers who are going to show up as wolves a % of the time. just because someone comes up as a wolf once doesn't mean they are a wolf. hell, as we saw, even twice doesn't guarentee anything. it's all about lowering our probability though. well that and figuring out who we can trust. but that trust is hampered by the fact that (as happened with me on D1) people can get false scan results and believe they are true.

so we're either going to have to coalesce around a very lucky student or two (until the wolves off them) and follow them, or else play the %'s.

(my longest WW post ever??)

[ntndeacon]

So I don't forget....
Vote ImtheCrew

[hoopsguy]

I'm a little nervous about doing this because this could be a do/die vote for us if I understand the numbers correctly.

1. Start off with 6-3
2. Student Lathum dies, 5-3
3. Student Render dies, 4-3
4. We make wrong vote here, 3-3 with night kill coming

It wouldn't be over in terms of victory conditions (must kill all) but it would be if the wolves have established communication with each other.

Each of the last two days Chief and NTN have been among the last two to chime in with their findings (going from memory here). If they are in communication with each other then they could orchestrate the events today in a way where they could assume control of the overall numbers.

Paranoid? Probably, but that scenario doesn't seem too out there as I typed it up.