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View Full Version : key dates for player ratings shifts?


cthomer5000
05-18-2007, 10:47 PM
I knew FOF2004 inside out, but with 2k7, and especially with the new patch, im a little bit in the dark on what our new important dates are for seeing changes in player ratings. I'm hoping a little discussion here will help us nail down the dates to watch for in the FOF2007 season.


What I knew in 2k4
start of season: Would often see players "give back" all or some of the gains they'd made above their projected ratings from the prior year. For example, I had a DE who went from something like 50/50 to 56/56 during season 1. At the start of season 2, he was back to 50/50. This was a very routine occurence.
start of FA1: I believe you used to see "fluctuations" here, and a lot of people just often theorized it had to do with subtle changes in your scout's skills.
Start of FA2: This used to be a huge day in FOF2K4. You'd get immediate rookie boom/busts, as well as significant veteran booms. I believe this was also were almost all aging effects were shown, as my old-ass team would usually see a wave of hits here.
Post-Training Camp: I don't recall any major changes here in 2k4, but instead you'd see gains/losses of current/future potential, but nothing that would qualify as big boom/busts unless you were talking about the gradual variety.


What do we know about FOF2007?

Start of Season: Is anything happening here?
Start of FA1: Things are happening here, and I'm not sure precisely what. It could just be fluctuation of scout skills, or some changes in actual player ratings or a combination of both. In my most recent career I had a lot of very minor swings in player ratings, but a couple guys show significan shifts (one high volatility 5th year OT go -10/-10 for example).
Start of FA2: Is anything happening here any more? In my most recent career I saw 0 change to any players on my roster at this stage.
Post-Training Camp: Is this where we're now seeing boom/busts? Do the large "instant" boom or busts still exist as we knew them, or is everthing more gradual now? Do veteran booms still exist?

michael1123
05-18-2007, 11:50 PM
Training camp is obviously the big one. Besides that I'm not sure there are any set dates for major changes.

But I do know that players can change a bit from week to week during the season, and major drops for old players can happen over the course of regular season games.

Sgran
05-19-2007, 04:41 AM
I don't track this stuff closely, but my feeling is that players gain slightly through the year and then lose a bit in the offseason. Training camp, like you said, is the hold-your-breath-and-brace-for-old-age-effects period for ratings. With that said, however, I have noticed that some veterans can take a big hit to their ratings and still play at a very high level. The more i play FOF2007, the more I rely on stats over ratings.

Daimyo
05-19-2007, 09:55 AM
In the FOFL's first season with 2k7 I saw ratings changes throughout the year. I had a third year SLB go from a solid starter to a top LB midseason. I don't have league files older than week 8, but here is how his run defense and play diagnosis progressed between week 8 and week 15 when his ratings stabilized:

<table><tr><td>Week</td><td>Run Defense</td><td>Play Diag</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>78/78</td><td>56/63</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>83/83</td><td>59/63</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>90/90</td><td>64/64</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>95/95</td><td>67/67</td></tr></table>

His other ratings all made moves of similar magnitude to play diag... only run defense moved drastically.

Ben E Lou
05-19-2007, 10:06 AM
To piggy-back on Daimyo's comment, players who aren't fully developed can have the masking removing dramatically during the season as they gain positional experience. I believe this is due to a combination of increased scout error and faster development in FOF2K7 than its predecessor. See this thread (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=57359) for more details.

cthomer5000
05-19-2007, 11:40 PM
There were also ratings shifts throughout the year in 2k4, but there also a few key dates as noted above that showed significant changes to rosters across the whole league. My question is, has anyone observed that these sort of key dates still exist in 2K7?

If no one knows, ill test for it myself, but i just thought i'd ask all you FOF braniacs first.

Ben E Lou
05-20-2007, 05:32 AM
What do we know about FOF2007?

Start of Season: Is anything happening here?--not much
Start of FA1: Things are happening here, and I'm not sure precisely what. It could just be fluctuation of scout skills, or some changes in actual player ratings or a combination of both. In my most recent career I had a lot of very minor swings in player ratings, but a couple guys show significan shifts (one high volatility 5th year OT go -10/-10 for example).--I *think* we see some of the results of aging here, and maybe a little unmasking of youngsters as well.
Start of FA2: Is anything happening here any more? In my most recent career I saw 0 change to any players on my roster at this stage. I don't believe so. I have seen zero changes here with 6.0e, and if my memory is correct, this was true with 6.0d as well.
Post-Training Camp: Is this where we're now seeing boom/busts? Do the large "instant" boom or busts still exist as we knew them, or is everthing more gradual now? Do veteran booms still exist? This is where the bulk of the unmasking occurs. I *think* everything is more gradual now. Either that, or my longest 6.0d career was quite vanilla. I had no insta-booms or insta-busts in the 15-20 seasons where I did serious change tracking.


I now use a five-point change tracking system.

2007a.txt--very beginning of season
2007b.txt--begin FA1
2007c.txt--immediately before training camp
2007d.txt--immediately after training camp
2007e.txt--end of season

I examine changes at various times during the season as well, but for the sake of clutter, don't keep a bunch of in-season text files around. There are usually only a small number of players on my roster with significant movement in future potential, and I have a pretty good idea of who those are going to be before the season starts, so I can key in on those guys.

MIJB#19
05-20-2007, 05:32 PM
What I see missing here is the shift of ratings based on:
* hiring of new lead scout
* the progress of the lead scout in his ability to scout players

I think the latter is at the start of the season and the former happens right after the new scout is hired.