Ben E Lou
07-08-2007, 06:20 AM
I've been tracking my draftees for the last 16 SP drafts, and looking back, I can see trends on how well I evaluate certain positions. I'm wondering if I'm just good or bad at certain positions, or if there are certain positions that are more difficult. (Oh, and fyi, it's intentional that I'm trading up very rarely. I figure I'm not going to learn anything by drafting an obvious stud in the top 10 every third or fourth year. I'd rather learn by seeing if I can find stars or near-starts at the end of the first round.) So, here's how I've done:
QB
Because the position is so important, I've tended to draft more players (especially in rounds 4-7) that I doubted would pan out, but just wanted to at least look at in training camp. So, in 16 seasons, I've drafted 11 QBs, the earliest at 3(32), and the latest at 7(32). I've managed to land four players in that time who turned out to be rated in the 45ish or above range.
RB
Before looking at my data, I'll say that this is probably my worst position.
{Looks at data}
OK. I picked 9 RBs, ranging from 1(31) to 7(30). My best pick was a 2(3) guy who was 33/53 at the draft, and turned out 58/58. Other than that, though, pretty much every other pick has been a flop. Only one other RB pick was ever my starter.
FB
Not exactly a position that I spend draft picks on often. Only two picked, both were good picks. Grabbed a guy at 4(27) in 2011 who was 20/32--->51/51, and spent the 1(28) pick in 2020 on a 60/79--->86/86 guy. Both were very useful starters.
TE
3 picks in 16 drafts, only one starter: a guy at 3(30) who was 32/47-->63/63, and who has been a stud on the field.
WR
Again, without looking, I'd say that WR and DE are the positions that I absolutely nail.
{Looks at WR data.}
Takin' candy from a baby lately, boyz. It looks like I've got the hang of this position. From 2007-2009, I drafted 4 WRs in the 6th and 7th rounds (my team started out strong at WR so I didn't feel the need to spend a good pick on any early), none of whom panned out. Then, from 2010-2020, 8 of the 10 WRs I drafted turned out to be starter-caliber, ranging from a guy I traded up to draft at 1(6) who was 27/57-->81/81 and arguably the best WR in league history, to a 5(30) pick who was 17/41-->51/51 and had three seasons averaging over 10 yards per target. I've picked two WRs in the last two years, and both are creeping upward to what looks to be starter level as well. Six picks have been made in rounds 1 or 2.
OL
Pretty good success here:
No centers drafted earlier than 4(31), but four out of the five picked became starter quality (including a 7(24) guy for whom I ignored the scout's Very Overrated), and the other one was a Mr. Irrelevant who became a solid long-time backup and eventual mentor. I think he was on the team for 12 years.
Gotten better with guards as the career has progressed. Only first-round guard was a 1(30) who became an 86/86 superstar who has 57 pancakes over the last five seasons. Overall, five of nine guards picked became starter-quality. Four of the five guards picked in rounds 1-3 became starter-quality.
Two of the three early-round tackles panned out. I feel good about the third one I picked, but he was one of those random busts. Also managed to grab an eventual 73/73 RT with the 5(30) pick in 2014.DEFENSIVE ENDS
As I said earlier, my impression here is that I've really nailed these, like WRs.
The data bears out that impression. I've picked 6 DEs in the first three rounds, none earlier than 1(30). Four of those six became solid starters or better. The later rounds have been very good to me for DEs. I've gotten four DEs who ended up rated 59 or better at 7(26), 4(32), 4(32) (again), and 6(29). Overall 8 of 13 DEs drafted have become starter quality.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES
For a two-starter position, I'm surprised to see how few of these I've taken. Only seven have been drafted. All three first round picks (26, 30, 30) have turned out to be rated 62 or better. So far, nothing to get excited about yet in the later rounds, although I currently have a 3rd year guy who is 19/30-->27/43 who was taken in the fourth.
LINEBACKERS
Impression: I suck at drafting these guys.
Actually, the data tells me that I may not that bad at them, but that I don't draft them high enough. Only two ILBs have been picked, at 6(25) and 7(30). The 7(30) guy turned into a 52/52 starter. Only one of the seven OLBs I've taken was a first-day pick: a 2(29) guy taken in the most recent draft who was 25/62-->26/61 in training camp, so I'm thinking he'll pan out. No other OLB was taken higher than 4(27). Two of the remaining six became marginal starters, but when I'm not taking them any higher than this, I guess I really don't know if I'm any good at drafting them. ;)
CORNERBACKS
Surprisingly, I've yet to take a corner higher than 2(25). That 2(25) guy is still creeping, so the jury is still out. I've gotten starters at 2(31) and 3(24). The 3(24) guy in particular has been a good find. He grabbed seven INTs in his first year as a starter.
SAFETIES
Only four safeties have been picked in all this time. Grabbed a "Very Overrated" 15/44 guy at 2(32) last season, and he's up to 32/52, so that looks like pick to be proud of. None of the other three were taken early, nor did they pan out into anything useful, although there's one who is still creeping.
So, overall:
POSITIONS I DRAFT VERY WELL: WR, DE, OL
POSITIONS I STRUGGLE WITH: RB
Are RBs more difficult to draft, or am I just missing something in my evaluation with them?
QB
Because the position is so important, I've tended to draft more players (especially in rounds 4-7) that I doubted would pan out, but just wanted to at least look at in training camp. So, in 16 seasons, I've drafted 11 QBs, the earliest at 3(32), and the latest at 7(32). I've managed to land four players in that time who turned out to be rated in the 45ish or above range.
RB
Before looking at my data, I'll say that this is probably my worst position.
{Looks at data}
OK. I picked 9 RBs, ranging from 1(31) to 7(30). My best pick was a 2(3) guy who was 33/53 at the draft, and turned out 58/58. Other than that, though, pretty much every other pick has been a flop. Only one other RB pick was ever my starter.
FB
Not exactly a position that I spend draft picks on often. Only two picked, both were good picks. Grabbed a guy at 4(27) in 2011 who was 20/32--->51/51, and spent the 1(28) pick in 2020 on a 60/79--->86/86 guy. Both were very useful starters.
TE
3 picks in 16 drafts, only one starter: a guy at 3(30) who was 32/47-->63/63, and who has been a stud on the field.
WR
Again, without looking, I'd say that WR and DE are the positions that I absolutely nail.
{Looks at WR data.}
Takin' candy from a baby lately, boyz. It looks like I've got the hang of this position. From 2007-2009, I drafted 4 WRs in the 6th and 7th rounds (my team started out strong at WR so I didn't feel the need to spend a good pick on any early), none of whom panned out. Then, from 2010-2020, 8 of the 10 WRs I drafted turned out to be starter-caliber, ranging from a guy I traded up to draft at 1(6) who was 27/57-->81/81 and arguably the best WR in league history, to a 5(30) pick who was 17/41-->51/51 and had three seasons averaging over 10 yards per target. I've picked two WRs in the last two years, and both are creeping upward to what looks to be starter level as well. Six picks have been made in rounds 1 or 2.
OL
Pretty good success here:
No centers drafted earlier than 4(31), but four out of the five picked became starter quality (including a 7(24) guy for whom I ignored the scout's Very Overrated), and the other one was a Mr. Irrelevant who became a solid long-time backup and eventual mentor. I think he was on the team for 12 years.
Gotten better with guards as the career has progressed. Only first-round guard was a 1(30) who became an 86/86 superstar who has 57 pancakes over the last five seasons. Overall, five of nine guards picked became starter-quality. Four of the five guards picked in rounds 1-3 became starter-quality.
Two of the three early-round tackles panned out. I feel good about the third one I picked, but he was one of those random busts. Also managed to grab an eventual 73/73 RT with the 5(30) pick in 2014.DEFENSIVE ENDS
As I said earlier, my impression here is that I've really nailed these, like WRs.
The data bears out that impression. I've picked 6 DEs in the first three rounds, none earlier than 1(30). Four of those six became solid starters or better. The later rounds have been very good to me for DEs. I've gotten four DEs who ended up rated 59 or better at 7(26), 4(32), 4(32) (again), and 6(29). Overall 8 of 13 DEs drafted have become starter quality.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES
For a two-starter position, I'm surprised to see how few of these I've taken. Only seven have been drafted. All three first round picks (26, 30, 30) have turned out to be rated 62 or better. So far, nothing to get excited about yet in the later rounds, although I currently have a 3rd year guy who is 19/30-->27/43 who was taken in the fourth.
LINEBACKERS
Impression: I suck at drafting these guys.
Actually, the data tells me that I may not that bad at them, but that I don't draft them high enough. Only two ILBs have been picked, at 6(25) and 7(30). The 7(30) guy turned into a 52/52 starter. Only one of the seven OLBs I've taken was a first-day pick: a 2(29) guy taken in the most recent draft who was 25/62-->26/61 in training camp, so I'm thinking he'll pan out. No other OLB was taken higher than 4(27). Two of the remaining six became marginal starters, but when I'm not taking them any higher than this, I guess I really don't know if I'm any good at drafting them. ;)
CORNERBACKS
Surprisingly, I've yet to take a corner higher than 2(25). That 2(25) guy is still creeping, so the jury is still out. I've gotten starters at 2(31) and 3(24). The 3(24) guy in particular has been a good find. He grabbed seven INTs in his first year as a starter.
SAFETIES
Only four safeties have been picked in all this time. Grabbed a "Very Overrated" 15/44 guy at 2(32) last season, and he's up to 32/52, so that looks like pick to be proud of. None of the other three were taken early, nor did they pan out into anything useful, although there's one who is still creeping.
So, overall:
POSITIONS I DRAFT VERY WELL: WR, DE, OL
POSITIONS I STRUGGLE WITH: RB
Are RBs more difficult to draft, or am I just missing something in my evaluation with them?