FOF MythBusters

[primelord]

After some discussion with SkyDog this morning in reference to a comment that was made over at IHOF I decided to start a thread dedicated to proving or disproving the various myths that are out there about FOF. Please feel free to post any of the various things you would like to see proven with the game.

The first one I will be attacking is the myth that long passes are completed at an unrealistic rate in the closing minutes of a game. I think we have all been on both sides of the ball when in the closing minutes it always seems that the QB manages to hit that 65 yard bomb as the seconds are ticking off.

So the question is are they always completeing that bomb, or do the times that it is completed stick in our minds? The passes that fall to the turf tend to be easily forgotten. I should have an answer shortly.

[wade moore]

GREAT idea!

I know one thing I'd like to see tested is the "Flip the Switch", but that may be relatively hard.

[primelord]

Myth #1 Results

These results are taken from a sample of just over 10,000 passes of 19+ yards. I have broken the passes up into 2 types. Passes with under 3 minutes left in the game (Late) and passes with more than 3 minutes left in the game (Early). To make things simple I ignored any pass plays that resulted in a penalty.

Totals:

Early pass plays (19+ yards): 2893/8757 33%
Late pass plays (19+ yards): 256/1433 18%

Early pass plays (19-26 yards): 1997/5144 39%
Late pass plays (19-26 yards): 107/372 29%

Early pass plays (27-39 yards): 664/2356 28%
Late pass plays (27-39 yards): 82/411 20%

Early pass plays (40+ yards): 232/1257 19%
Late pass plays (40+ yards): 67/650 10%

Based on the data above, I am fairly confident in saying this myth is busted. In the last 3 minutes of the game we see a decline in completion % in all long passing attempts. This is what you would expect to see when facing defenses that are expecting the pass more often.

Thoughts? Questions?

[Ben E Lou]

Myth #1 Results

These results are taken from a sample of just over 10,000 passes of 19+ yards. I have broken the passes up into 2 types. Passes with under 3 minutes left in the game (Late) and passes with more than 3 minutes left in the game (Early). To make things simple I ignored any pass plays that resulted in a penalty.

Totals:

Early pass plays (19+ yards): 2893/8757 33%
Late pass plays (19+ yards): 256/1433 18%

Early pass plays (19-26 yards): 1997/5144 39%
Late pass plays (19-26 yards): 107/372 29%

Early pass plays (27-39 yards): 664/2356 28%
Late pass plays (27-39 yards): 82/411 20%

Early pass plays (40+ yards): 232/1257 19%
Late pass plays (40+ yards): 67/650 10%

Based on the data above, I am fairly confident in saying this myth is busted. In the last 3 minutes of the game we see a decline in completion % in all long passing attempts. This is what you would expect to see when facing defenses that are expecting the pass more often.

Thoughts? Questions?

Agreed. I hope this helps put that particular whine to bed for good.

[Hammer]

I'm interested to know if the FOF2004 rules still apply in terms of the following...

* Blocking strength. Is it still pretty much worthless?

* Hole rec, elus., speed for a RB. Are they still the main 3 catogories that effect a RBs average?


I wonder whether Jim has made a few adjustments. It could just be stats playing trick but I'm seeing low technique high strength lineman getting pancakes.

I also have a back that is maxed is HR and ELUS. with 50 speed, that isn't getting it done. He has almost no speed to the outside or power inside.

[st.cronin]

I'll just point out that a simple decline in completion percentage doesn't mean that the rate of completion isn't too high. I don't know what the completion percentage SHOULD be, but I don't know that just saying it goes down in the last three minutes closes that argument.

[VPI97]

Myth #1 Results
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Based on the data above, I am fairly confident in saying this myth is busted. In the last 3 minutes of the game we see a decline in completion % in all long passing attempts. This is what you would expect to see when facing defenses that are expecting the pass more often.

Thoughts? Questions?
Is that really the question, though? Did people really think long passing was more successful at the end of a FOF game than at another point in a FOF game? I thought the real question was if "late game" passing was more successful in FOF than in real life. Without compiling NFL play by play data, there's no way to compare the two.

[Subby]

And you need to do this with 2 minutes left, not 3.

[primelord]

I'll just point out that a simple decline in completion percentage doesn't mean that the rate of completion isn't too high. I don't know what the completion percentage SHOULD be, but I don't know that just saying it goes down in the last three minutes closes that argument.

I probably should have defined the problem a little more clearly. When I say unrealstic completions I mean in reference to completions within the game of FOF. Not vs completions in the NFL. Whatever the baseline completions are within the game you should expect to see a drop in the last few minutes, especially on hail mary type passes and that does appear to be the case here.

[primelord]

Is that really the question, though? Did people really think long passing was more successful at the end of a FOF game than at another point in a FOF game? I thought the real question was if "late game" passing was more successful in FOF than in real life. Without compiling NFL play by play data, there's no way to compare the two.

It seems to me like we are pissing into the wind if that is the concern here. I know on countless occasions I have seen people complain about QBs developing super powers in the last few minutes and always completeing the long bombs when they have to. I have not seen people complaining about them throughout the game (not saying those complaints aren't out there).

If the complaint truely is that too many long passes in general are completed then the whining shouldn't be that he hit the 65 yard pass to beat me at the end of the game. It should be about the overall passing in general.

[st.cronin]

Primelord, it doesn't sound to me like you understand the problem. A study to determine whether late-game passing is a problem would look something like this:

FOF:
Score Comp %

close x
not close y

NFL
Score Comp %

close x
not close y

The complaints that I have seen (and made) center around goofy late-game playcalling, which leads to occasionally odd results.

Even a study that compared something like the number of 4th quarter lead changes in FOF vs. 4th quarter lead changes in the NFL would perhaps put some of these complaints to bed.

[Ben E Lou]

Is that really the question, though? Did people really think long passing was more successful at the end of a FOF game than at another point in a FOF game? I thought the real question was if "late game" passing was more successful in FOF than in real life. Without compiling NFL play by play data, there's no way to compare the two.

The impression I get from many is that they think it's well-nigh automatic that the offense will march down the field. There's no way that we can compare this sort of thing to real NFL data, though. All we can do is hold it up and say, "it's unquestionably harder to throw down the field late in the game in FOF." Jim's the only person with the data to say whether or not the numbers we're seeing are accurate.

[primelord]

And you need to do this with 2 minutes left, not 3.

Numbers with the break point set to after the 2 minute warning.

Early pass plays (19+ yards): 2972/9209 32%
Late pass plays (19+ yards): 177/981 18%

Early pass plays (19-26 yards): 2031/5276 39%
Late pass plays (19-26 yards): 73/240 30%

Early pass plays (27-39 yards): 690/2482 28%
Late pass plays (27-39 yards): 56/285 20%

Early pass plays (40+ yards): 251/1451 17%
Late pass plays (40+ yards): 48/456 11%


Virtually no difference after the 2 min warning vs after 3 minutes.

[VPI97]

The impression I get from many is that they think it's well-nigh automatic that the offense will march down the field.
...and that really doesn't have much to do with completion percentage of long passes by itself. It would be a more telling comparision to view passer rating or team points per drive.

[Subby]

Cool. Good to see. :)

[VPI97]

There's no way that we can compare this sort of thing to real NFL data, though.
Sure you can. Just parse the play by play logs at NFL.com. That's how a lot of online sites obtain play by play data for NFL statistical analysis.

[primelord]

Primelord, it doesn't sound to me like you understand the problem.

I disagree. I think we are talking about different problems. This particular study was done in direct response to this comment:

Gotta love FOF

Brooklyn: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 with nickel personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, expecting the pass.
4-25-BKN36 (4Q: 01:42) Vinnie Simmons pass completed to WR Forrest Cape for 43 yards. Tackled by CB Teddy Rackers. Cape gained 4 yards after the catch.

The team owner that made that comment won his game. The point of the comment being that with under 2 minutes left in the game he knew the other team was going to complete a bomb down filed on a play like 4th and 25 because we see it all the time in FOF. I have seen countless comments along those lines whether a team wins or loses.

I think the "catch up code" myth is a different argument and not what I was trying to prove or disprove here (although I agree that the long passing would be part of that study).

As SkyDog said I think what we have proven here is that it is more difficult to pass deep late in the game (when the defense tends to expect it more) just as it should be. Whether that jives with the NFL numbers or not we don't know. If the drop seems reasonable within the context of completion percentages throughout the rest of the game though, then the complaint should not be about the late game completions but with completions overall.

[Ben E Lou]

...and that really doesn't have much to do with completion percentage of long passes by itself. It would be a more telling comparision to view passer rating or team points per drive.
Sorry, I wasn't specific enough. The complaint I've seen implied is that the Long pass is more successful late in the game.

[Ben E Lou]

Sure you can. Just parse the play by play logs at NFL.com. That's how a lot of online sites obtain play by play data for NFL statistical analysis.

But those logs don't contain the distance of the pass attempt, do they?

[VPI97]

But those logs don't contain the distance of the pass attempt, do they?
Enough to make a reasonable comparison to FOF.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/NFL_20061105_IND@NE

Every pass is given a 'short' or 'long' descriptor that correlates to the length of the pass...not the actual gain.

[Ben E Lou]

Enough to make a reasonable comparison to FOF.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/NFL_20061105_IND@NE

Every pass is given a 'short' or 'long' descriptor that correlates to the length of the pass...not the actual gain.

Heh. I'll be danged. Perhaps, then, something of a comparison could be made. I wonder what the "short" vs. "long" difference is.

[Celeval]

Probably not too informative, but what we can pull out of this (and I know PL can pull much more detailed info):

19-26 yard passes
First 37m (+OT?): 5144 = ~139 attempts/minute
3:00 - 2:01: 132 attempts/minute
2:00 - End: 240 = 120 attempts/minute

27-39 yard passes
First 37m (+OT?): 2356 = ~64 attempts/minute
3:00 - 2:01: 126 attempts/minute
2:00 - End: 285 = ~144 attempts/minute

40+ yard passes
First 37m (+OT?): 1257 = ~34 attempts/minute
3:00 - 2:01: 194 attempts/minute
2:00 - End: 456 = ~228 attempts/minute

19-26 yard passes
First 37m (+OT?): 1997 = ~54 completions/minute
3:00 - 2:01: 34 completions/minute
2:00 - End: 73 = 37 completions/minute

27-39 yard passes
First 37m (+OT?): 664 = ~18 completions/minute
3:00 - 2:01: 26 completions/minute
2:00 - End: 56 = 28 completions/minute

40+ yard passes
First 37m (+OT?): 232 = ~6 completions/minute
3:00 - 2:01: 19 completions/minute
2:00 - End: 48 = 24 completions/minute

This may be part of it as well - while the completion percentage goes down, the # of attempts goes way, way up - so the number of completions does go up.

So basically, there /are/ more long passes being completed in the last two minutes than at any other point of the game, but there are /far more/ long passes attempted during that time frame as well.

[Celeval]

Pulling that table into more of an easy-to-read mode:

19-26 yard passes (approx. average/minute)
First 37 minutes: 54-139 (38.9%)
3:00-2:01: 34-132 (25.8%)
2:00-End: 37-120 (30.8%)

27-39 yard passes
First 37 minutes: 18-64 (28.1%)
3:00-2:01: 26-126 (20.6%)
2:00-End: 28-144 (19.4%)

40+ yard passes
First 37 minutes: 6-34 (17.6%)
3:00-2:01: 19-194 (9.7%)
2:00-End: 24-228 (10.5%)

[Ben E Lou]

Pulling that table into more of an easy-to-read mode:

19-26 yard passes (approx. average/minute)
First 37 minutes: 54-139 (38.9%)
3:00-2:01: 34-132 (25.8%)
2:00-End: 37-120 (30.8%)

27-39 yard passes
First 37 minutes: 18-64 (28.1%)
3:00-2:01: 26-126 (20.6%)
2:00-End: 28-144 (19.4%)

40+ yard passes
First 37 minutes: 6-34 (17.6%)
3:00-2:01: 19-194 (9.7%)
2:00-End: 24-228 (10.5%)

Didn't Jim mention more plays being run in the late-game during some of the "comeback code" discussions?

[MIJB#19]

Didn't Jim mention more plays being run in the late-game during some of the "comeback code" discussions?Yeah, I remember reading that too.

Besides, it kind of makes sense that more long gains happen in late game situations, simply because teams are more often forced into going for it, as they have no other options.

I do wonder what the stats look like for close score situations. Anecdotal stuff creates a myth that teams down by 1 score are more prone to make the comeback to win, but I'm immediately aware that a team down by 3 should be more likely to comeback, since they are usually a better team than the one that was down by 10 points. It would still be really nice to bust that part of this myth.

[gstelmack]

I'd love to see an analysis of the various 3rd-and-blank conversion statistics. It seems like you regularly back a team into 3rd-and-12 only to watch them hit the pass time after time after time...

[primelord]

I'd love to see an analysis of the various 3rd-and-blank conversion statistics. It seems like you regularly back a team into 3rd-and-12 only to watch them hit the pass time after time after time...

What seems like a good range to go with?

1-3 yards
4-7 yards
8-10 yards
11+

Something like that or did you have any other ranges in mind?

[primelord]

FWIW I am also working on the "flipped switch" myth, but that test is going to take some more time to set up

[MIJB#19]

FWIW I am also working on the "flipped switch" myth, but that test is going to take some more time to set upWhat is that myth about? I think I never heard of it.


And I agree with gstelmack's suggestion. It's probably not true, but it always seems that teams are more succesful on 3rd and >10 yards than on anything shorter, especially when it's roughly 3rd and <6. It's probably not true, but it's one of those examples of remembering the bad luck examples and forgetting the dozens of succesful defensed plays (I see an 11-yd gain on 3rd and 12 as succesful in most situations).

[gstelmack]

What seems like a good range to go with?

1-3 yards
4-7 yards
8-10 yards
11+

Something like that or did you have any other ranges in mind?

The more ranges the better. Frankly, I'd love to see stats at EVERY yardage range (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,etc), and you could bundle them up based on the sample size in each range if you wanted. But if I had to pick ranges, it'd be something like:

1-2 yards
3-5 yards
6-9 yards
10-15 yards
16+ yards

[primelord]

Ok here are some numbers on 3rd down pass attempts. Again to keep things simple I just ignored plays that resulted in a penalty. Even if the penalty was declined.

Total 3rd Down Passes: 11,275

<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Distance</td><td>Atts</td><td>Comps</td><td>Comp %</td><td>1st Down %</td></tr> <tr><td>1 yards to go</td><td>341</td><td>258</td><td>0.757</td><td>0.713</td></tr><tr><td>2 yards to go</td><td>630</td><td>479</td><td>0.760</td><td>0.711</td></tr><tr><td>3 yards to go</td><td>829</td><td>622</td><td>0.750</td><td>0.677</td></tr><tr><td>4 yards to go</td><td>916</td><td>653</td><td>0.713</td><td>0.597</td></tr><tr><td>5 yards to go</td><td>1001</td><td>690</td><td>0.689</td><td>0.512</td></tr><tr><td>6 yards to go</td><td>930</td><td>616</td><td>0.662</td><td>0.502</td></tr><tr><td>7 yards to go</td><td>942</td><td>572</td><td>0.607</td><td>0.414</td></tr><tr><td>8 yards to go</td><td>877</td><td>529</td><td>0.603</td><td>0.440</td></tr><tr><td>9 yards to go</td><td>740</td><td>460</td><td>0.622</td><td>0.427</td></tr><tr><td>10 yards to go</td><td>1624</td><td>758</td><td>0.467</td><td>0.305</td></tr><tr><td>11 yards to go</td><td>476</td><td>243</td><td>0.511</td><td>0.311</td></tr><tr><td>12 yards to go</td><td>357</td><td>193</td><td>0.541</td><td>0.300</td></tr><tr><td>13 yards to go</td><td>261</td><td>139</td><td>0.533</td><td>0.272</td></tr><tr><td>14 yards to go</td><td>184</td><td>90</td><td>0.489</td><td>0.255</td></tr><tr><td>15 yards to go</td><td>336</td><td>162</td><td>0.482</td><td>0.271</td></tr><tr><td>16 yards to go</td><td>205</td><td>89</td><td>0.434</td><td>0.171</td></tr><tr><td>17 yards to go</td><td>115</td><td>59</td><td>0.513</td><td>0.200</td></tr><tr><td>18 yards to go</td><td>112</td><td>61</td><td>0.545</td><td>0.188</td></tr><tr><td>19 yards to go</td><td>72</td><td>28</td><td>0.389</td><td>0.111</td></tr><tr><td>20 yards to go</td><td>129</td><td>61</td><td>0.473</td><td>0.132</td></tr><tr><td>21 yards to go</td><td>43</td><td>18</td><td>0.419</td><td>0.233</td></tr><tr><td>22 yards to go</td><td>33</td><td>18</td><td>0.545</td><td>0.152</td></tr><tr><td>23 yards to go</td><td>22</td><td>14</td><td>0.636</td><td>0.091</td></tr><tr><td>24 yards to go</td><td>20</td><td>7</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>25 yards to go</td><td>27</td><td>10</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.074</td></tr><tr><td>26 yards to go</td><td>19</td><td>7</td><td>0.368</td><td>0.158</td></tr><tr><td>27 yards to go</td><td>5</td><td>4</td><td>0.800</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>28 yards to go</td><td>8</td><td>5</td><td>0.625</td><td>0.125</td></tr><tr><td>29 yards to go</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0.500</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>30 yards to go</td><td>11</td><td>8</td><td>0.727</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>31 yards to go</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>0.500</td><td>0.000</td></tr></tbody></table>
I think you obviously run into some sample size issues as the distance gets really long, but I think we can see a pretty obvious trend here. For the most part as the distance gets longer the successful 1st down conversions goes down. Now again this does not show whether the number of times these are converted is on par with NFL standards or not, but it does show that the game appears to be behaving as expected. The longer your attempt the harder it is to convert. Just eye balling it though 30% successful conversions on 3rd and 10 seems reasonable to me.

[wade moore]

Nice work PL. I am not one to say that FOF is perfect, but I certainly feel like there are some perceptions out there that are not accurate - it's nice to see some of this data hashed out.

[Ben E Lou]

Nice work PL. I am not one to say that FOF is perfect, but I certainly feel like there are some perceptions out there that are not accurate - it's nice to see some of this data hashed out.

Exactly. I've seen people post along the lines of, "I'd rather my defense be in 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 12, because it's easier to stop 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 12 in FOF."

I believe that some of the issues are twofold:

1. People tend to remember the unexpected outcomes and forget the expected ones. In other words, the 70% of 3rd and 12 passes that don't result in a first down aren't blips on the radar screen. The 30% that *do* result in a first down are remembered.

2. There's a tendency to think "I did EVERYTHING I could on this play. I had the right defensive formation, the right expectation, the right personnel. That play should not have worked!" The problem is sometimes that play DOES work in real life. I don't think any reasonable person expects that a 25-yard pass should never, ever, ever, ever, not once get completed against a 3-deep zone with a dime package, but it does happen (just ask Charles Dimry :mad: ). But when we someone sees it happen against their team, they get frustrated, and then also the factor mentioned in point #1 kicks in: they forget all the times that their 3-deep shut down the long pass.

[wade moore]

I think your point #1 is the bigger issue... They remember all of the bad, forget the good..

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I've always believed that. And brought it up many a times over at USFL when similar complaints were made. "Selective memory" we call it.

[zlionsfan]

I have seen a number of variations on point #2 as well: it seems common across all sims I've played.

Some people seem to feel that FOF is like chess: you move your knight here, I move my bishop to that square, I take your knight. If your knight stays on the square, something must be wrong.

It's really more like Risk: strategy is an important component, but it's not everything. Even if the odds greatly favor your defense, every now and then, my attack will succeed.

There's also an alternative form of this argument that ties both points together: such-and-such seems to happen more often than in real life. That's partly because you do remember the bad much more than the good, and partly because once you get into the game and read about others doing the same, it's easy to gather much more data than will ever exist in RL. (This is more common in baseball sims, though, where people complain about how many times a team comes back down 3 games to none: they compare sim instances to RL instances without comparing base sizes.)

[Ben E Lou]

Ok here are some numbers on 3rd down pass attempts. Again to keep things simple I just ignored plays that resulted in a penalty. Even if the penalty was declined.

Total 3rd Down Passes: 11,275

<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Distance</td><td>Atts</td><td>Comps</td><td>Comp %</td><td>1st Down %</td></tr> <tr><td>1 yards to go</td><td>341</td><td>258</td><td>0.757</td><td>0.713</td></tr><tr><td>2 yards to go</td><td>630</td><td>479</td><td>0.760</td><td>0.711</td></tr><tr><td>3 yards to go</td><td>829</td><td>622</td><td>0.750</td><td>0.677</td></tr><tr><td>4 yards to go</td><td>916</td><td>653</td><td>0.713</td><td>0.597</td></tr><tr><td>5 yards to go</td><td>1001</td><td>690</td><td>0.689</td><td>0.512</td></tr><tr><td>6 yards to go</td><td>930</td><td>616</td><td>0.662</td><td>0.502</td></tr><tr><td>7 yards to go</td><td>942</td><td>572</td><td>0.607</td><td>0.414</td></tr><tr><td>8 yards to go</td><td>877</td><td>529</td><td>0.603</td><td>0.440</td></tr><tr><td>9 yards to go</td><td>740</td><td>460</td><td>0.622</td><td>0.427</td></tr><tr><td>10 yards to go</td><td>1624</td><td>758</td><td>0.467</td><td>0.305</td></tr><tr><td>11 yards to go</td><td>476</td><td>243</td><td>0.511</td><td>0.311</td></tr><tr><td>12 yards to go</td><td>357</td><td>193</td><td>0.541</td><td>0.300</td></tr><tr><td>13 yards to go</td><td>261</td><td>139</td><td>0.533</td><td>0.272</td></tr><tr><td>14 yards to go</td><td>184</td><td>90</td><td>0.489</td><td>0.255</td></tr><tr><td>15 yards to go</td><td>336</td><td>162</td><td>0.482</td><td>0.271</td></tr><tr><td>16 yards to go</td><td>205</td><td>89</td><td>0.434</td><td>0.171</td></tr><tr><td>17 yards to go</td><td>115</td><td>59</td><td>0.513</td><td>0.200</td></tr><tr><td>18 yards to go</td><td>112</td><td>61</td><td>0.545</td><td>0.188</td></tr><tr><td>19 yards to go</td><td>72</td><td>28</td><td>0.389</td><td>0.111</td></tr><tr><td>20 yards to go</td><td>129</td><td>61</td><td>0.473</td><td>0.132</td></tr><tr><td>21 yards to go</td><td>43</td><td>18</td><td>0.419</td><td>0.233</td></tr><tr><td>22 yards to go</td><td>33</td><td>18</td><td>0.545</td><td>0.152</td></tr><tr><td>23 yards to go</td><td>22</td><td>14</td><td>0.636</td><td>0.091</td></tr><tr><td>24 yards to go</td><td>20</td><td>7</td><td>0.350</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>25 yards to go</td><td>27</td><td>10</td><td>0.370</td><td>0.074</td></tr><tr><td>26 yards to go</td><td>19</td><td>7</td><td>0.368</td><td>0.158</td></tr><tr><td>27 yards to go</td><td>5</td><td>4</td><td>0.800</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>28 yards to go</td><td>8</td><td>5</td><td>0.625</td><td>0.125</td></tr><tr><td>29 yards to go</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0.500</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>30 yards to go</td><td>11</td><td>8</td><td>0.727</td><td>0.000</td></tr><tr><td>31 yards to go</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>0.500</td><td>0.000</td></tr></tbody></table>
I think you obviously run into some sample size issues as the distance gets really long, but I think we can see a pretty obvious trend here. For the most part as the distance gets longer the successful 1st down conversions goes down. Now again this does not show whether the number of times these are converted is on par with NFL standards or not, but it does show that the game appears to be behaving as expected. The longer your attempt the harder it is to convert. Just eye balling it though 30% successful conversions on 3rd and 10 seems reasonable to me.

Thanks to primelord's diligence, we've now gotten our hands on some very juicy and detailed NFL stats. In 2006, there were 1,194 passes thrown in 3rd and 8-10 situations. 412 of them, or 34.51%, converted the first down. Per prime's data (all in MP), 36.94% of FOF MP passes on 3rd and 8-10 resulted in first downs. That difference is small enough that human game planning may well account for it. I'd say that number is quite reasonable, particularly given how our offensive game planning is ahead of our defensive game planning at this point.

[Ben E Lou]

MYTH OR FACT: Short passing is less effective in FOF than in the NFL. Specifically, YAC seems lower.

In the NFL in 2006, there were 9796 pass completions. The average completion was 6.32 yards downfield, with an average of 5.14 YAC, for a total of 11.46 yards per completion.

We'll need to get some SP logs parsed to give the average location of the completions in FOF (this is too dependent on game planning to use the MP data), but it's far enough from reality that some general statements can be made prior to that. I looked at three seasons in FOF SP, and the *highest* of those three seasons was only 1.96 YAC. League yards per completion are consistently in the 10.50-11.25 range, so it's clear that there's a significant difference here: FOF (even with recommended game plans) is throwing the ball somewhere around 2-3 yards farther downfield per play than the NFL, and is getting more than three YAC less per play. The result is fewer yards per completion, even though the passes are unquestionably longer.

So, there's no question that YAC is lower in FOF than the NFL. However, some question remains as to whether or not this is a function of recommended game plans, or the engine itself. It is *possible* (but not likely, from my experience) that shorter passing could result in more YAC and therefore more yards per completion.

[Ben E Lou]

I think we'll be ok on the SP data. We should have over a half million plays, all with recommended game plans, to look at soon. ;)

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Do you guys actually work? Or is this all you do? I am both fascinated my the info and shocked you have the time to do this.

[Ben E Lou]

Actually, V4P, it turns out that we were able to get our hands on some very detailed NFL data that requires very little work (as in less than a minute to find stuff now that I understand the system) to find the numbers from the last two posts I've made. For a good chunk of this stuff, it's just a matter of applying the right filters. For example, you wanna know how NFL QBs have done from 1998-2006 on 3rd and 11+??? Here ya go:

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 515pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="676"> <tbody><tr style="height: 11.25pt;" height="15"> <td style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; height: 11.25pt; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" height="15" width="42"> Att</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Cmp</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Pct</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 35pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="46"> GrossYds</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Yd/Att</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Net Yds</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> TD</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> TD%</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Int</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Int%</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Lg</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Sk</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Lst</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> Rate</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> 1st</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 32pt; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" width="42"> 1st%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 11.25pt;" height="15"> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; height: 11.25pt; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num="" height="15"> 8869</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 4872</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 54.9</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 64736</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 7.3</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 57765</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 193</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 2.2</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 380</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 4.3</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> 87t</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 1059</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 6971</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 67.7</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px;" x:num=""> 1748</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: white none repeat scroll 0% 50%; font-size: 8pt; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center; color: windowtext; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" x:num=""> 19.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[Ben E Lou]

Heh. This data surprises even me.

MYTH OR FACT: "Medium passing works too well in FOF!"

Some of the data doesn't break down as cleanly as we might desire, but the real NFL data on 11-20 yard passes should be enough to put the "medium passing works too well in FOF" myth to bed, too.

YARDS PER ATTEMPT, NFL, PASSES THROWN 11-20 YARDS
2002: 9.11
2003: 8.83
2004: 9.52
2005: 9.16
2006: 9.58

YARDS PER ATTEMPT, PASSES THROWN 9-18 YARDS, MOST RECENT FIVE YEARS IN MY FOF SP CAREER
2020: 7.78
2021: 7.61
2022: 7.79
2023: 8.05
2024: 7.80

Yeah, the yardage snapshots are two yards off, but from other data, we know that there's *NO* pass distance in FOF6.0e that yields as much as 9.00 yards per attempt. Furthermore, even in IHOF, where passing success is up significantly this season (league-wide QB rating=88.8), the league-wide ypa on medium passing is 8.16, From these numbers, it's pretty clear that this is purely a myth.

[gstelmack]

Thanks to primelord's diligence, we've now gotten our hands on some very juicy and detailed NFL stats. In 2006, there were 1,194 passes thrown in 3rd and 8-10 situations. 412 of them, or 34.51%, converted the first down. Per prime's data (all in MP), 36.94% of FOF MP passes on 3rd and 8-10 resulted in first downs. That difference is small enough that human game planning may well account for it. I'd say that number is quite reasonable, particularly given how our offensive game planning is ahead of our defensive game planning at this point.

Can we get an NFL comparison of all distances? Specifically I'd love to know if the NFL complets 25% of the 11-15 yard 3rd down conversions, and 10% of the 20-or-so yard variety. Those are the ones that really bug me, where you've backed them up and they nail it.

[QuikSand]

re: medium passing...

One thought here... if FOF is suffering (as many players have suggested ever since it was introduced as a stat) from a loss of YAC globally, maybe that's a part of the problem with medium passing that wouldn't show up perfectly in YPA. While I'm still inclined to think that your stats suggest medium passing is probably close to "right" (in NFL terms), it's still possible that what FOF does is allow a higher completion percentage, but a lower yards per completion (due to fewer YAC)... making it a more predictable source of yards, even if the YPA is lower. Just a thought - not undermining the analysis, just something to factor in.

[Ben E Lou]

Can we get an NFL comparison of all distances? Specifically I'd love to know if the NFL complets 25% of the 11-15 yard 3rd down conversions, and 10% of the 20-or-so yard variety. Those are the ones that really bug me, where you've backed them up and they nail it.Gimme a few...

[Ben E Lou]

OK. This data isn't broken down very granularly for 3rd and Long. All I have is 3rd and 11+. But here it is:

From 2002-2006, there were 4820 passing attempts on 3rd and 11+. 19.6% of those resulted in first downs.

Total: 2700 for 4820, 56.02% completions, 945 first downs.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. This data isn't broken down very granularly for 3rd and Long. All I have is 3rd and 11+. But here it is:

From 2002-2006, there were 4820 passing attempts on 3rd and 11+. 19.6% of those resulted in first downs.

Total: 2700 for 4820, 56.02% completions, 945 first downs

And from Rick's data, the FOF numbers for MP (and keep in mind that our game plans probably skew this...he's working on some allrex numbers based on a sample size of 17 season and nearly 1 million plays), are

1219 for 2441, 49.94% completions, 591 first downs, 24.2% resulting in first downs. We have a lower completion percentage in MP FOF, and a higher first down rate. With the NFL data I'm looking at, it would be hard to verify this, but my strong suspicion is that the difference in first down rate is at least partially related to us risking it more than NFL teams do on third and long.

[Ben E Lou]

re: medium passing...

One thought here... if FOF is suffering (as many players have suggested ever since it was introduced as a stat) from a loss of YAC globally, maybe that's a part of the problem with medium passing that wouldn't show up perfectly in YPA. While I'm still inclined to think that your stats suggest medium passing is probably close to "right" (in NFL terms), it's still possible that what FOF does is allow a higher completion percentage, but a lower yards per completion (due to fewer YAC)... making it a more predictable source of yards, even if the YPA is lower. Just a thought - not undermining the analysis, just something to factor in.

Yeah. Could be, but hard to tell. I'd need more data from Rick from FOF, but I can tell you the real NFL numbers. From 2002-2006 in the NFL, the average 11-20 yard pass that was completed was caught 14.73 yards down the field, with 3.34 YAC, for an 18.07 yards per completion average.

[Celeval]

My overall thought is that there are a number of medium passes made and completed in FOF that should really be short passes made and completed with slightly more YAC. Ditto long/medium.

[Ben E Lou]

My overall thought is that there are a number of medium passes made and completed in FOF that should really be short passes made and completed with slightly more YAC. Ditto long/medium.

yes yes

[MIJB#19]

Exactly. I've seen people post along the lines of, "I'd rather my defense be in 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 12, because it's easier to stop 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 12 in FOF."

I believe that some of the issues are twofold:

1. People tend to remember the unexpected outcomes and forget the expected ones. In other words, the 70% of 3rd and 12 passes that don't result in a first down aren't blips on the radar screen. The 30% that *do* result in a first down are remembered.

2. There's a tendency to think "I did EVERYTHING I could on this play. I had the right defensive formation, the right expectation, the right personnel. That play should not have worked!" The problem is sometimes that play DOES work in real life. I don't think any reasonable person expects that a 25-yard pass should never, ever, ever, ever, not once get completed against a 3-deep zone with a dime package, but it does happen (just ask Charles Dimry :mad: ). But when we someone sees it happen against their team, they get frustrated, and then also the factor mentioned in point #1 kicks in: they forget all the times that their 3-deep shut down the long pass.What you're missing here is that some situations are team specific. And a large study like this can only show how things work out in the long run for 'average' teams versus 'average' teams.

Some teams for whatever reason do a better job stopping the run than the pass. 3rd and 12 is great to face when your team usually manages to stop the pass, but when your team appears to be a great run stopper, you'd almost get the feeling to want them to run on 3rd and 3 and see them get stuffed or come a yard short. Even if they make it, there may be a much smaller chance to see the opponent hit the homerun for a bigger than needed gain, potentially even resulting in a touchdown.

The number of times are countless for situations where near 'our' end zone I saw my defense(s) stuff a team on 1st and short, again on 2nd and short/medium, only to get beat on 3rd and medium/long for the pass. It makes it easy to perceive that 3rd and short is easier to stop than 3rd and long.

[albionmoonlight]

What you're missing here is that some situations are team specific. And a large study like this can only show how things work out in the long run for 'average' teams versus 'average' teams.

Some teams for whatever reason do a better job stopping the run than the pass. 3rd and 12 is great to face when your team usually manages to stop the pass, but when your team appears to be a great run stopper, you'd almost get the feeling to want them to run on 3rd and 3 and see them get stuffed or come a yard short. Even if they make it, there may be a much smaller chance to see the opponent hit the homerun for a bigger than needed gain, potentially even resulting in a touchdown.

The number of times are countless for situations where near 'our' end zone I saw my defense(s) stuff a team on 1st and short, again on 2nd and short/medium, only to get beat on 3rd and medium/long for the pass. It makes it easy to perceive that 3rd and short is easier to stop than 3rd and long.

Well, even if for one team it is possible that more third-and-longs are converted than third-and-shorts, the myth is still busted. The "myth" is that the game engine made it easier to do than IRL. That has been proven not to be the case.

[MIJB#19]

Well, even if for one team it is possible that more third-and-longs are converted than third-and-shorts, the myth is still busted. The "myth" is that the game engine made it easier to do than IRL. That has been proven not to be the case.Yes and no. What has been busted is the "myth" that long passing is more effective than short passing in 3rd down and late game situations. When you factor in rushing efficiency, 3rd and long versus 3rd and short takes a different turn. I wouldn't be shocked to see the same outcome with rushing factored in (as in, the less yards to go, the better chance to convert for a 1st down). I just tried to point out that my personal 3rd and short vs 3rd and long gripes are not what has been tested here.

[Synovia]

Pulling that table into more of an easy-to-read mode:

19-26 yard passes (approx. average/minute)
First 37 minutes: 54-139 (38.9%)
3:00-2:01: 34-132 (25.8%)
2:00-End: 37-120 (30.8%)

27-39 yard passes
First 37 minutes: 18-64 (28.1%)
3:00-2:01: 26-126 (20.6%)
2:00-End: 28-144 (19.4%)

40+ yard passes
First 37 minutes: 6-34 (17.6%)
3:00-2:01: 19-194 (9.7%)
2:00-End: 24-228 (10.5%)

FWIW, ALL those numbers are really low, compared to the NFL:
* Short (5 yards or less): 80.5 percent
* Mid (6-15 yards): 65.0 percent
* Deep (16-25 yards): 52.0 percent
* Bomb (26+ yards): 33.6 percent

[primelord]

Yes and no. What has been busted is the "myth" that long passing is more effective than short passing in 3rd down and late game situations. When you factor in rushing efficiency, 3rd and long versus 3rd and short takes a different turn. I wouldn't be shocked to see the same outcome with rushing factored in (as in, the less yards to go, the better chance to convert for a 1st down). I just tried to point out that my personal 3rd and short vs 3rd and long gripes are not what has been tested here.

So you believe your IHOF team specifically is better at stopping 3rd and short than they are at sropping 3rd and long, yes?

[wade moore]

So you believe your IHOF team specifically is better at stopping 3rd and short than they are at sropping 3rd and long, yes?

Don't take the bait, don't do it! MIJB, it's too dangerous!

:D

[Celeval]

Don't take the bait, don't do it! MIJB, it's too dangerous!

:D

It's a trap!

[cuervo72]

No Ackbar pic??

[Wessinmouse]

... particularly given how our offensive game planning is ahead of our defensive game planning at this point.

How so? I don't think I understand that statement S.D.

[primelord]

How so? I don't think I understand that statement S.D.

He means we understand more about specifically how offensive game plans work vs defensive game plans. There is still a lot of question about what players are specifically doing in certain coverages and how those coverages are supposed to be handled etc.

[WSUCougar]

No Ackbar pic??
Happy now?

http://rgbdream.com/library/photos/warren-ackbar.png

[cuervo72]

Hehehe. Yes, indeed I am.

[MIJB#19]

So you believe your IHOF team specifically is better at stopping 3rd and short than they are at sropping 3rd and long, yes?No I do not believe that.
Given all the variables that could be at work, I don't think I can trust anything that's based on just my perception and research-less. I ran play-by-play research in the past, but that's all pre-patch (6.0e) data. I did notice that 3rd and long vs 3rd and short trend across all three my FOF teams, but I'll quickly mention that it was expected to happen (which feeds the perception) as in those days 2K4 to 2K7 defenses (especially mine) turned out to be very vulnerable to the pass. It probably was a game planning error as well (maybe I kept using magic suicide numbers), so I'm not feeling comfortable in being very sure about this stuff at all.

Which brings me back to the request. The point of my comment was that I think it would be interesting to expand the research by factoring in the running efficiency on 3rd downs. I used my own experienced annoyance pointing out that I had a perception that made me feel that way.

[devynd]

Early pass plays (40+ yards): 251/1451 17%
Late pass plays (40+ yards): 48/456 11%


Focus in the thread so far has been on the percentages, but I think it is interesting to note the totals. The above was from a sample of about 10,000 pass plays; that's equivalent to about 10 weeks of a season, at least in the NFL. Divide those late passes by ten weeks and you get an average of about five bombs completed in the final two minutes of games in a typical week (or about one every three games). It shouldn't be hard to check how this frequency compares to what actually happens in the NFL.

Either way, it should now be clear why there's a perception that bombs are completed often at the end of games: 16% of the sample's deepest completions (and 24% of the attempts) occurred in the final 3% (2:00) of games. Depending on how you phrase your "myth", it might be fair to say that this one has been confirmed.

[Ben E Lou]

The new version of Change Tracker has made it very easy to examine and dispel a myth about FOF 2K7.

MYTH: "WAY too many draftees are overrated. I'll bet that {insert number, usually 75 or greater here} percent of the draft class is overrated!"

FACT: I just examined seven draft classes on Wall Street (the greatest level of scout error) and, with very little year-to-year fluctuation, I found that it broke down as follows overall:

GAINED POINTS: 32.0%
NO CHANGE: 23.8%
LOST POINTS: 44.2%

The low year-to-year fluctuation I mention is probably due to the size of each draft class. There are so many players (ranged from 815 to 865) that the sample size is large enough to remove most of the "noise" here. Here are the max and mins for any of the seven individual draft class:

GAINED: 29.8% to 34.3%
NO CHANGE: 21.6% to 27.0%
LOST: 43.2% to 45.0%

CONCLUSION: In any given draft class, with the game's highest scout error, roughly 1/3 of the players will gain points, roughly 1/4 of the players will stay as-is, and a little under half of the players will lose points.

[larrymcg421]

Actually, I agree that too many draftees seem to be overrated. Now, this doesn't mean that they're bad or won't gain points after camp. What it means is that my scout seems to be telling me almost everyone is overrated. In WOOF, almost every QB I scouted in the last draft was "Very Overrated." Of the 60 players I scouted, only a handful were "Underrated" and I don't remember seeing a single "Very Underrated."

[Ben E Lou]

Actually, I agree that too many draftees seem to be overrated. Now, this doesn't mean that they're bad or won't gain points after camp. What it means is that my scout seems to be telling me almost everyone is overrated. In WOOF, almost every QB I scouted in the last draft was "Very Overrated." Of the 60 players I scouted, only a handful were "Underrated" and I don't remember seeing a single "Very Underrated."

For the recent WOOF draft:

271 increased (31.2%)
188 stayed the same (21.7%)
409 decreased (47.1%)

So, a little tougher draft than average, but still very much in that same ballpark. And scouts are somewhere in the 75-90% accurate range with their assessments. My guess is the issue is interviewing too many guys with good-looking bars, but mediocre or worse combine performances. That'll skew you heavily toward VO, because the vast majority of those are, well, very overrated.

[PiemasterUK]

One myth I would like to see explored is whether 'momentum' is a factor in FoF. Often a team will be winning consistenty and then will suddenly start losing for no apparent reason (no injuries etc) for no apparent reason. The reverse is also true, sometimes a team will just start winning for no reason.

I remember one season early in a dynasty where I was 4-11 when the PC crashed. I had to return to the start of the season and resimmed and ended up 10-6. While there were obviousl various injuries in both seasons, there was nothing that should really lead to a 6 game difference.