Fantasy Football: Keeper League Question

[johnnyshaka]

Our draft is about a month away and I've started to compile my draft list in preparation. We keep a full starting lineup season to season which consists of:

QB T. Brady
RB J. Addai
RB C. Taylor
WR C. Johnson
WR L. Evans
TE C. Cooley
K N. Rackers
DEF New Orleans

We also start a flex position but do not allow the extra carryover.

Scoring is pretty basic except that we don't give out points per reception.

So, onto my question...I've got the 6th pick in the first round and I'm curious as to how you guys would rank the mix of runningbacks available:

Adrian Peterson - Handcuff with Taylor which would make sense for me...but still a great pick for any keeper team.
Marshawn Lynch - Rookies are risky but he could start Week 1 and pickup where Willis left off.
Rudi Johnson - Probably the best, proven, back available and should go with the first pick.
Travis Henry - Capable runner with a proven track record in an ideal situation...running for run-crazy Broncos.
Cadillac Williams - Rough year last year but not necessarily his fault. Only entering his 3rd season and could be a solid RB2 for several years to come.
Deuce McAllister - Should see less and time on the field as Bush takes over the reins.
Thomas Jones - Limited Keeper League value but could be a good RB2 for the next year or two.
Julius Jones - Contract year but is battling with Barber for carries and more importantly, goal line carries.
Marion Barber - Freak-like numbers last season and will likely get more touches but he's unlikely to duplicate the TDs.
Ahman Green - Old, I know, but could have two or three productive years left and could be a good stop-gap until I find a better carryover.
Tatum Bell - If Jones doesn't make it back from his injury, Bell could be a very good pick but I doubt he should be a first round pick.

Personally, this is how I see things right now:

1. Johnson
2. Lynch
3. Peterson
4. Henry
5. Williams
6. Jones
7. Green

To me the rest won't figure into my decsion.

I think Johnson should be the easy first pick as he's been consistent and he's playing in one of the best offenses in the league. Lynch and Peterson are the two best rookies and either one could be second but since Lynch will likely start before Peterson, I ranked him higher. I put Henry ahead of Williams because I think Henry will out produce Williams over the next couple of years but I wouldn't be disappointed to end up with Williams. Jones and Green are probably decent RB2s at best...but they are the best of the rest unless I'm willing to gamble on guys like Brandon Jackson or Michael Bush who likely won't contribute much this season but could do so down the line.

Thoughts??

[Travis]

Depending on how the draft starts, I'd be very tempted to try and move up to snag one of the two rookies. You're either getting your handcuff or a clear cut starter (assuming you're allowed to trade picks on draft day).

That said, a lot depends on the owners in your league and how much foresight they have towards a guy like Peterson who is starting the year as a backup technically, so he may make it to your pick.

Outside of the top 3 on your list though, I'd likely go after Cadillac or T. Jones (in that order) and keep an eye on anybody getting in a tight spot due to RB injuries that could open the door for a trade to give you a more ideal partner for Addai in your backfield to carry over after this season.

[johnnyshaka]

Yes, we are allowed trading picks and that is something I'm seriously going to consider over the next little while.

The guy with the first pick overall likes to trade...so we'll see if we can get him to move a little bit. The guy with the 2nd pick also has the 8th pick so he might be tempted to slide down. The problem with these two is that they both need a RB badly...one had to carryover Dayne and the other has Kevin Jones (he could miss time to start the season and may lose his job to Tatum Bell). The third pick is held by a guy we call "The Stand Pat-ables" so it won't be likely that I'll be able to pry his pick from him.

Knowing those three owners...Peterson, Lynch, and Johnson will be gone by the time it gets to me. Mind you, one of those owners is a wildcard and could pick Owens just because he does things like that.

No love for Henry?

[rowech]

1. I think Rudi has to be #1. As a Bengals fan, I think he will get less touches this year now that they have Irons to replace Perry but it could be good for him actually as it seemed last season really wore on him. I think he also passes my knee-jerk reaction of clearly being the #1 guy out of this group. He's been consistent, he's on a good offense, and you know he'll get carries and TDs. I think all the rest of the guys have a variety of situations that affect them...here's my next four though.

After that, I'd go...

2. Peterson
3. Lynch
4. Marion Barber -- it'll take guts to make the pick but I think he's the best back on his team.
4. Henry/Cadillac/Thomas Jones -- all under the "coiuld be solid but could be ugly category"

[johnnyshaka]

Interesting...Barber.

I have to say that last season I picked Barber in the 2nd round primarily because I had Julius Jones but I was obviously very happy with the pick by midseason. I turned some heads with that pick last season but I don't know if I could pick him this early.

[johnnyshaka]

Should Brandon Jackson in Green Bay be a consideration this early or is he a late first round pick? I don't know much about him but after doing a little more reading the pundits seem to think that he's likely to start over Morency.

[rkmsuf]

I would think either Peterson or Henry. Lynch to me is a huge question mark.

[cougarfreak]

Maybe it's just me, but I try and avoid Broncos RB's, especially after last season. It seems like one or two of the three they keep are always in Shanahan's doghouse and either inactive, or not playing from week to week.

[rkmsuf]

just a hunch but I bet henry gets the majority of carries. health would be the concern with him.

[johnnyshaka]

Yet another afterthought...Jerious Norwood. With Dunn out for the next month Norwood would figure as the number one guy in Atlanta to start the season and likely wouldn't relinquish that spot even after Dunn gets back. But, how good will the Falcons rushing attack be without Vick? Mind you, a guy who averaged over 6 YPC last season on 100 carries should be worth considering...especially in a keeper league...no?

Decisions...decisions...decisions.

[Logan]

Bump with a keeper question of my own...

My league is simple -- only one keeper per year. My decision is between my bust of a 1st rounder from last year, Shaun Alexander, or my nice mid-draft pick of Joseph Addai. I was set on Alexander but I'm starting to have second thoughts. Please opine on who you think I should keep...decision is due Wednesday morning.

First, I have the 5th pick in the draft this year. The top 4 are expected to be some combination of Gore, Addai (or Alexander should I decide to let him go), Maroney, and Jones-Drew. While there's an outside chance MJD might be available, I will probably take Travis Henry 5th. Shanahan giving him all that money is an indication that he will get feature back carries, and I won't have to deal with RBBC.

Pro Alexander/Anti Addai:

- Alexander, at his best, is surely better than Addai at his.
- Alexander could bounce back with another 20 TD season.
- While his age and high number of carries in the past are concerns, his injury last year may have left him pretty fresh for this season.
- While his YPC was down last year (3.6), he did have 7 TDs in only 10 games (and I believe he only played a quarter in 2 of them).

- Addai has never had to take on the load of being the feature back (college and pro). Can he hold up?
- Manning loves to run QB draws from inside the 5. Both he and Addai had the same number of TDs from close yardage.
- Addai's longest TD last year was 15 yards. Can he break the big one?
- If I keep Addai and end up taking Henry, my top 2 RBs will both have Week 8 byes.

Pro Addai/Anti Alexander:

- Addai, 24. Alexander, wrong side of 30.
- Alexander is coming off an injury, and is playing behind an OL that is worse than he had when he had his great years.
- Addai is no longer sharing carries with a veteran like Dom Rhodes.
- As in the past, running opportunities should be there for Addai with Manning spreading out the defense and throwing all over the place.
- Addai is more attractive as a future keeper than Alexander.
- Addai put up great numbers as a rookie RB (4.8 ypc).

I'm very split on this and have gone back and forth numerous times. Do I go for the guy with more questions and the potential for an 1800 yard, 16 TD season? Or the young up-and-comer who has proven himself in a limited role?

Thanks.

[Travis]

Personally I'm glad I don't have to make that choice (Alexander/Addai). From a Seahawks fan perspective, there is optimism with the current status of the line as Jones is healthy (wasn't for a majority of last season), Sims and Spencer quite simply are growing into their roles and seemed to turn the corner late last season while Locklear is a very solid RT. Holmgren is saying that the right side of the line is open for competition because of the apparent improvement of Ray Willis who might supplant Grey at RG (would be a huge shock if Locklear lost the RT imho) which would give the Seahawks a youngish starter at 4 of the 5 spots, but only one guy (Willis) who wasn't at that spot to end last season.

Given the turnover at WR and TE, I'm highly anticipating Alexander getting a heavy workload with maybe a bit more rest between the 20's thanks to Morris and Weaver (again, another guy returning to health) in an attempt to ease the transition in the passing game and to try and establish a more ball control offense like they had during their super bowl run. Alexander is reportedly in the best shape he's been in at this point of the season because of his rehab from the injury, so it's shaping up to be a potential return to glory for him this year.

That all said, and while I'm very optimistic that this year will go well, I can't see Alexander being a viable keeper option for more than 2-3 more years, with each year likely bringing about diminished returns from the season previous. Addai is in a pretty ideal situation, and while he'll have to share the touchdowns a lot, his average per carry should be great and his numbers should build moving forward.

Barring injury, I can't see either being a bad choice this year, but with that one keeper rule, it's hard to pass up on a guy who could fill that role for the next 5+ seasons, again assuming he can stay healthy.

[rowech]

Bump with a keeper question of my own...

My league is simple -- only one keeper per year. My decision is between my bust of a 1st rounder from last year, Shaun Alexander, or my nice mid-draft pick of Joseph Addai. I was set on Alexander but I'm starting to have second thoughts. Please opine on who you think I should keep...decision is due Wednesday morning.

First, I have the 5th pick in the draft this year. The top 4 are expected to be some combination of Gore, Addai (or Alexander should I decide to let him go), Maroney, and Jones-Drew. While there's an outside chance MJD might be available, I will probably take Travis Henry 5th. Shanahan giving him all that money is an indication that he will get feature back carries, and I won't have to deal with RBBC.

Pro Alexander/Anti Addai:

- Alexander, at his best, is surely better than Addai at his.
- Alexander could bounce back with another 20 TD season.
- While his age and high number of carries in the past are concerns, his injury last year may have left him pretty fresh for this season.
- While his YPC was down last year (3.6), he did have 7 TDs in only 10 games (and I believe he only played a quarter in 2 of them).

- Addai has never had to take on the load of being the feature back (college and pro). Can he hold up?
- Manning loves to run QB draws from inside the 5. Both he and Addai had the same number of TDs from close yardage.
- Addai's longest TD last year was 15 yards. Can he break the big one?
- If I keep Addai and end up taking Henry, my top 2 RBs will both have Week 8 byes.

Pro Addai/Anti Alexander:

- Addai, 24. Alexander, wrong side of 30.
- Alexander is coming off an injury, and is playing behind an OL that is worse than he had when he had his great years.
- Addai is no longer sharing carries with a veteran like Dom Rhodes.
- As in the past, running opportunities should be there for Addai with Manning spreading out the defense and throwing all over the place.
- Addai is more attractive as a future keeper than Alexander.
- Addai put up great numbers as a rookie RB (4.8 ypc).

I'm very split on this and have gone back and forth numerous times. Do I go for the guy with more questions and the potential for an 1800 yard, 16 TD season? Or the young up-and-comer who has proven himself in a limited role?

Thanks.

Classic nice position to be in but hate to make the wrong decision. One other thing about Addai...receptions. He will get some...Alexander won't. With that said....flip a coin. It sucks either way. My one thought might be if you let Addai go, he'll never get back to you at 5. However, if you let Alexander go, perhaps all the other guys face the same dilemma as you and they all pass on him and he drops back to you at 5. A stretch probably but at least a chance?

[MikeVic]

I have both Addai and Alexander in a keeper league too. And we can keep two players. :) I don't know who I'd keep between the two.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Second question first-- Addai. Since it's a keeper league, you have to consider beyond just this coming season. Addai will get better, Alexander will only get worse. Alexander might still outproduce Addai this year, but possibly the last year he does so.

johnnyshaka, I might be in the minority here, but Henry seems like a great pick. You know Denver will run the ball well, no matter who is back there. Hell they made Ron Dayne look good! But same advice I gave above, Henry might have one fantastic year in Denver, then be finished. Peterson is the choice of those guys listed to make an impact this year, and improve in the future. But most likely gone by your pick.

[Logan]

Thanks for the opinions so far guys, and please keep them coming...it might also be a good idea to point out that we are in the middle of deciding whether or not we will be keeping guys for a maximum of 3 years, including his first year that you originally drafted the player onto your team (this is our first year with a returning keeper). I plan on targeting one of Peterson/Lynch as my 3rd RB so, best case, I will have another option to turn towards for next year if I do choose to go the Alexander route.

Interesting thought on whether Alexander might be there at 5...I'm going to guess he won't but maybe there is a slight chance.

[johnnyshaka]

Logan...I'd vote for Addai over Alexander as I personally think Addai will likely equal Alexander this season and should outperform him every year after that. Again, just my personal opinion and exactly why I dealt for Addai last season and not Alexander as the owner I made the deal with had both.

SR...as every day goes by my opinion of all involved seems to change which is rather annoying. I agree with you about Henry as I can't imagine Shanahan spending all that money on Henry to have him carry the ball 15 times a game. He is definitely high on my list. I also like what Gruden is saying about Caddy and how he'd like to get him more involved in the passing game.

With that said, I'd love to be in a position to grab Peterson but I'm afraid it's going to cost me too much to get him. I'm without my 2nd round pick this year and I don't have my 1st round pick next year. I'm going to investigate what 1.1 is going to cost but my guess is I won't have enough.

[rkmsuf]

Seems like Addai is less risk. Great part about the Colts offense is that as long as it's one guy back there he will put up numbers. Addai will get most of the carries.

[johnnyshaka]

Last season, Addai was 23rd overall in total fantasy points in my league and that was sharing duties. So, there is no reason he can't get close to cracking the top 10 if he stays healthy.

[MikeVic]

So, with my team from last year being:

QB: Favre and Grossman
RB: Henry, Addai, Alexander, and Dunn
WR: Colston, Javon Walker, and Chambers

I'm thinking I'd take Addai as my "more than one year" keeper, and Alexander as my keeper for only next year (and then the year after he's automatically a free agent). Or would anyone take Henry over Alexander at this point?

[johnnyshaka]

MV, I'd say you have to keep Alexander at this point because he'd likely still go before Henry if both were available. I don't think SA is done yet, but I think his days of being a top 3 back are done...but, top 10 isn't bad either.

[johnnyshaka]

Back to my original question...who to draft at #6 out of the guys mentioned in the first post...hope nobody minds?

One option brought forth was to try and trade up and that is something I'm still thinking of doing but I'm not sure I'll be able to pull it off. If I can't get into one of the top three spots, where does that leave me?

I could stand pat and pick from what's left and that might be OK depending on who falls to me but my chances at challenging for the title this season could be pretty limited because of Chester Taylor and his potential for a HUGE decline in production.

Something I hadn't pondered at first could be to trade down and take a guy like Norwood hoping he pans out this year and next and also grab a draft pick or two.

My latest thought is to trade down, I've got an offer already for the 9th pick this year and his 2nd round pick next year for my 6th pick, and take Michael Turner. A reach, yeah, obviously, but I'd be picking him for next season's potential as he's an unrestricted free agent after this season and I would think that he'd love to get out of LT's shadow and start somewhere and I'm also thinking that there are several teams that would bend over backwards to have him. If LT gets hurt this season...bonus. And, I'd have an extra 2nd round pick next year to hopefully make a run.

Thoughts about the Michael Turner option? Remember, I don't have a 2nd round pick this season and I'm not sure he'll get to me in the third. Is taking him in the first TOO extreme? Do I maybe trade down even further if possible?

[MikeVic]

With training camp and pre-season still to go... a lot can change. I mean, just yesterday people thought Chester Taylor was hurt enough to give the starting role to Peterson. :) That would affect both of their values a ton.

Moving down three spots doesn't sound bad, but if it's to take Turner... I don't know. There's not much of an indication (at least to me) that he'll be good next year, or this year.

[johnnyshaka]

I'm definitely not making any trades until draft day nor am I forming any concrete opinions about who to target, because, as you said...there is still a lot that can change during the next month.

I agree, the Turner thought is way out there but is it one of those things that is so crazy is just might work or is it just a stupid idea altogether? If I knew he'd get to me in the 3rd round then I'd grab him in a heartbeat and that's what I just might do but my guess is that LT's owner will likely snap him up by then.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Thoughts about the Michael Turner option? Remember, I don't have a 2nd round pick this season and I'm not sure he'll get to me in the third. Is taking him in the first TOO extreme? Do I maybe trade down even further if possible?

First round I think is too risky, especially since it looks like you might have lost Taylor for awhile now.

But, moving down (maybe trying to get a 2nd and 3rd--or trading with the guy holding your 2nd now, recouping your 2nd and his?) makes sense.
Grab Turner and another RB, like you mention Norwood.

[johnnyshaka]

First round I think is too risky, especially since it looks like you might have lost Taylor for awhile now.

But, moving down (maybe trying to get a 2nd and 3rd--or trading with the guy holding your 2nd now, recouping your 2nd and his?) makes sense.
Grab Turner and another RB, like you mention Norwood.

I've been offered my 2nd rounder back to me as well as the pick following it for my 6th pick overall but I don't think that it is fair value or the best thing for me to do. If I'm going to get out of the first round altogether, then I'd better improve my situation for next year which could include gambling on Turner but instead of a pick this year, which would likely be a lost season without improving on my current RB situation as I doubt I'd be able to do that with two mid-round picks in the second round, I'd definitely be better served grabbing picks for next year and essentially throwing in the towel now.

[Suburban Rhythm]

I've been offered my 2nd rounder back to me as well as the pick following it for my 6th pick overall but I don't think that it is fair value or the best thing for me to do. If I'm going to get out of the first round altogether, then I'd better improve my situation for next year which could include gambling on Turner but instead of a pick this year, which would likely be a lost season without improving on my current RB situation as I doubt I'd be able to do that with two mid-round picks in the second round, I'd definitely be better served grabbing picks for next year and essentially throwing in the towel now.

I'll defer to you, not knowing your league tendencies. No chance you could get Turner and, with the other 2nd rounder, and guy looking for a rebound season, like Ahman Green or Jamal Lewis--I am assuming neither of those guys is a keeper from another team.

It's a risk, but might set you up nice for next year with Turner, and not kill you this season as one of the other guys as a 1 year stop gap at RB2.

[johnnyshaka]

I'll defer to you, not knowing your league tendencies. No chance you could get Turner and, with the other 2nd rounder, and guy looking for a rebound season, like Ahman Green or Jamal Lewis--I am assuming neither of those guys is a keeper from another team.

It's a risk, but might set you up nice for next year with Turner, and not kill you this season as one of the other guys as a 1 year stop gap at RB2.

Of the other 11 owners there are probably 4 guys with the foresight to draft Turner this year for the sole purpose of carrying him over. The current owner of LT doesn't have a pick until the 4th round so he shouldn't be of any concern. Of the 4 guys who would do something like this, only one currently is potentially in need of a carryover type of back and that is debatable as his second back is DeAngelo Williams who will more than likely end the season as the Panthers starting RB. He isn't picking until late in the first round but has an early pick in the second round as well. I really could see him taking Turner with one of those picks. The other three guys are contenders and would likely use their early picks on guys that can help them now as their carryovers are SA, LJ, Westy, MJD, Gore, and Willis so I'm guessing they'd pass on Turner early on.

Man, oh man...the possibilities are endless.

[johnnyshaka]

Just to follow up on how my draft went last week...

I was unable to move up but I definitely tried my best to do so. Here's how the first round went:

1. Henry
2. Peterson
3. Rudi Johnson
4. Lynch
5. Brandon Jackson

I'm up. At this point I'm pretty excited to see that I could grab Cadillac as I was expecting him to go by the 5th pick but seeing the order of the first round picks thus far I shouldn't be all that surprised. I have an offer from the owner of 1.9 to move down to his pick and get his 2nd round pick next year...remember, I don't have a 1st round pick next year. I decide to take it in hopes that I'll see maybe T. Jones, Norwood, or T. Bell and being happy with adding a high pick next year.

6. Calvin Johnson
7. TO

I literally turned the draft on its side when I dealt my pick. The guy who picked Peterson had 1.8 as well and was hoping for either TO or CJ to be around for his 2nd pick and had I kept my pick, he would've had either one of them. So, the guy with 1.8, who didn't have a 2nd round pick reached quite a bit for:

8.Reggie Brown

Can you believe it?? The guy I was going to take at 1.6 was still there for me at 1.9...SWEET!!! Now, he just has to have a turnaround season. That should be easy.

I didn't have a 2nd round pick but had two 3rd rounders. So, the rest of the RBs went in round 2 along with a couple of QBs. My first 3rd rounder ended up being the best QB left on the board (we start a flex who can be anybody) in Big Ben. Well, the guy behind me had been eyeballing him all night and was going to grab him with the next pick...so, he offered me this pick and his next round pick for Ben. Done. Took Favre. My second 3rd rounder gets to me and low and behold...Michael Turner is still available. Fuckin' EH!!! Whether I carry him over or not remains to be seen but he could be a valuable trading chip as the season goes on.

Anyways...thought I'd share.