Werewolf L Kate Beckinsale - day 7, deadline Thursday 10pm Eastern Time

[st.cronin]

http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/9135/katebeckintmh9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Rules

Background: You are a group of exchange students, living and studying cryptozoology in Dr. Frankenstein's old castle in Transylvania. Winter has set in, and you are snowbound until spring - there is no leaving the castle, and no way for help to arrive. Gameplay begins when you discover that your professor has been murdered by evil, inhuman beasts.

Roles, human:

Van Helsing - You are a descendant of the famous vampire hunter, Van Helsing. Every day, you can choose one player to "shadow." If the player is a wolf, you may discover his identity - as he will yours. If the player is targeted by the wolves, you will chase the wolves off. You may not choose the same player two nights in a row.

Young Sherlock Holmes - You are a descendant of the famous detective. Each day you may investigate one player. You will discover if the player is the Mad Scientist.

Good Scientist - Each day you may examine the dna of one player. You will discover if the player is a wolf.

Roles, evil:

Mad Scientist - You have found Dr. Frankenstein's old notes, and have begun work on an army of lycanthropes. If lynched, you will turn up as human, but for game purposes you count as a wolf.

Wolf - You are a wolf, you like to kill people.

There are unlisted roles in the game, as well.

Voting

Each day you should publicly vote for one person to be lynched. The vote should be bolded, in all caps, and with a hard return above and below it, so it looks like this:

VOTE ST.CRONIN

Votes that don't comply, for example vote st.cronin, may not be counted. You may change your vote at any time before deadline, by posting like this:

UNVOTE HORNSMANIAC
VOTE DARTH GUAPO

It is possible to vote for no lynch. If a player doesn't vote, his vote will be counted as a vote for no lynch. If there are more votes for no lynch than for any one player to be lynched, there will be no lynch. Example:

3 votes no lynch
2 votes player x
2 votes player y
1 vote player z

That would result in no lynch.

Schedule

Each day has one deadline. Actions at the deadline will be processed in the following order:

Lynch (or no lynch).
Various investigations by Young Sherlock, Good Scientist, etc.
Wolves try to kill somebody.

After that, we will start a new day.

Roles are being sent out next. If you have a special role, you will get two pms. If all you get is this:

The new Werewolf game has begun! I have started a new thread for the game. I am sending this same pm to all players.

If this is the only pm you get, then you are an ordinary student, whose only responsibility is to vote. If you are a wolf, or have some other role, this should be the SECOND pm you received.

Good luck, and enjoy the game.

Then you are an ordinary villager.

Player list:

1. JHandley
2. path12
3. LoneStarGirl
4. Antmeister - lynched day 4, human
5. Lathum - killed by wolves Day 2, human
6. Telle
7. DaddyTorgo
8. RendeR
9. Barkeep49 - killed by wolves Day 4, human
10. cartman
11. Schmidty
12. Alan T - killed by wolves Day 3, human
13. Jonathan Ezarik - killed by wolves Day 1, human
14. Chief Rum - lynched by village Day 3, wolf
15. KWhit - killed by wolves Day 6, good scientist
16. Gonzo
17. Neon Chaos
18. Tanglewood - killed by wolves Day 5, human
19. Dodgerchick - replaced by oliegirl day 4 - lynched day 5, human

[Telle]

Yay! New game! I think I'm hooked :)

So what was the final count.. 19 people playing?

[Lathum]

single PM checking in

[cartman]

the above pic looks GREAT on the iPhone

:D

[st.cronin]

All roles are sent out. If anything is unclear, don't hesitate to pm me.

[Alan T]

Got my PM and checking in

[st.cronin]

Couple quick notes:

Absolutely no editing or deleting posts. In this game you ARE free to quote pms I have sent you. You are also free to make up pms, of course, and quote those as well.

I'll try to remember to post in this color as gm from here on out.

[LoneStarGirl]

I am wicked excited about this game starting so early! Good job about being on your toes St. Cronin. I dont remember the Rome game at all, so I dont really understand this 24 hour thing... when exactly are votes due?

[LoneStarGirl]

Couple quick notes:

Absolutely no editing or deleting posts. In this game you ARE free to quote pms I have sent you. You are also free to make up pms, of course, and quote those as well.

I'll try to remember to post in this color as gm from here on out.

Can't pick a better color? :D

[LoneStarGirl]

And I am glad to see we finally have a game with 3 girls, this should be fun

[st.cronin]

Can't pick a better color? :D

Is this better?

If the schedule confuses you, it might help to think of the night phase as taking zero time. So, Day 1 ends 10pm Eastern time Friday night. Night 1 ends at the same time. So, night actions are actually due BEFORE the lynch gets processed.

[RendeR]

Blah, single PM joe schmoe villager checking in.

[Telle]

Actually, the brown was easier to read than the red. At least on my blue background.

[JHandley]

Uno Pm-o. Checking in with the rest of the village.

[KWhit]

Ordinary Student here.

[KWhit]

And I have to say, that is by far the best opening post in a WW thread ever.

[path12]

Student here. Really.

[LoneStarGirl]

Student here. Really.

you said that last game

[path12]

Yeah, but this time I mean it.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Ordinary student checking in.

[Schmidty]

For some reason, I didn't think this was going to start until monday. I won't be around much tomorrow or this weekend. I've got a golf tournament tomorrow afternoon, and family will be in town all weekend. Just a heads-up.

[tanglewood]

I feel lied to. The PM insinuated that I had the role of a Werewolf Kate Beckinsdale, which is halfway towards my ultimate fantasy.

[Schmidty]

And I am glad to see we finally have a game with 3 girls, this should be fun

Who's the 3rd girl?

[Lathum]

telle

[Schmidty]

telle

Ah, ok.

Is she someone's significant other or something? I'm just being nosey.

[Gonzo]

No special role for me. How disappointing.

[path12]

I feel lied to. The PM insinuated that I had the role of a Werewolf Kate Beckinsdale, which is halfway towards my ultimate fantasy.


Which half?

[path12]

Ah, ok.

Is she someone's significant other or something? I'm just being nosey.

RendeR's wife.

[LoneStarGirl]

So we have a married couple in this game... too bad GE couldn't play

[Lorena]

So we have a married couple in this game... too bad GE couldn't play

2 married couples thank you very much, Antmeister's playing silly! :)

[Lorena]

the above pic looks GREAT on the iPhone

:D

Haha, I bet she does. She must look even better when you zoom up close eh?

[cartman]

So we have a married couple in this game... too bad GE couldn't play

Correction, two married couples

[cartman]

Haha, I bet she does. She must look even better when you zoom up close eh?

Oh, hellz yeah! :)

There are some others of Eva Mendez's recent nude shoot that are amazing as well! /drool

[Lorena]

Oh, hellz yeah! :)

There are some others of Eva Mendez's recent nude shoot that are amazing as well! /drool

I wanna see it! Save 'em for when we meet up again at Salt Lick ;)

[Barkeep49]

I'm just pleased as peach to not be a wolf this game. I suck these days as a wolf, always seeming to zag when I should zig and vice versa.

[Lorena]

I'm just pleased as peach to not be a wolf this game. I suck these days as a wolf, always seeming to zag when I should zig and vice versa.

Uh huh... precisely what a wolf would say ;)

[Barkeep49]

Uh huh... precisely what a wolf would say ;)
You weren't around last game to see how incompetently I played being a wolf.

[JHandley]

You weren't around last game to see how incompetently I played being a wolf.

He's got a point. Following along the last game he was the only one of the three that I had right.

[Lathum]

He's got a point. Following along the last game he was the only one of the three that I had right.

PWNED!!!

[JHandley]

PWNED!!!

I wanted to announce my pressence with authority ;)

[cartman]

I wanted to announce my pressence with authority ;)

You mean, in this game, we can have...

authoritah?

[LoneStarGirl]

This game looks like its going to be fun

[Lorena]

You mean, in this game, we can have...

authoritah?

just 4 u cartman

http://www.oneposter.com/UserData/Poster/Poster_26263.jpg

[DaddyTorgo]

checking in. I am not hot.

[LoneStarGirl]

So is there one deadline for everyday? Does it depend on what day it is as to the deadline, or is it 10 Eastern everyday throughout this game?

[JHandley]

Thread title says deadline is Friday at 10pm EST. I imagine since today was a short day, the deadline is prolonged to make it a day and a half.

[JHandley]

So, it occurs to me that my reply had nothing to do with your question. I suppose it does serve to bump my post count and get away from the dreaded "utr" title.

[Telle]

So, it occurs to me that my reply had nothing to do with your question. I suppose it does serve to bump my post count and get away from the dreaded "utr" title.

Actually... werewolf posts don't count toward the post count.

[JHandley]

Right, but it counts towards the threadpost count which is what people look at when deciding who's trying to hide.

[RendeR]

Actually... werewolf posts don't count toward the post count.


He was referring to the number of posts in this thread which you can see by clicking the total replies number on the threads list. it breaks it down by post-er.

[Lathum]

Right, but it counts towards the threadpost count which is what people look at when deciding who's trying to hide.

an over rated strategy IMO

[JHandley]

And over-used. But I had to come up with something to save face after that answer ;)

[LoneStarGirl]

Jhandley, you are going to be fun, I can tell.
I knew the deadline was 10 tomorrow, but I didn't know if it was 10 every night.

[Alan T]

Is it just me or is Path really under the radar so far this game?

[path12]

Is it just me or is Path really under the radar so far this game?

:D

[st.cronin]

The deadline will be 10 every night, unless I change it for some reason.

alternately

The deadline will be 10 every night, unless I change it for some reason.

[cartman]

ten thirty o' clock, and all's well

[Neon_Chaos]

Whatsup. Checking in. Let's get us some werewolves.

[Lorena]

Is it just me or is Path really under the radar so far this game?

lol

Already analyzing and the game hasn't even started? :)

[Chief Rum]

Did I miss something? Looks like the game has started. :P

I am a villager. No BG skills for me this time. Still, I am convinced Lathum is a wolf. :D

[Chief Rum]

JHandey dola,

As usual, I will not be around in the daytime, as I work. I should show up later in the afternoon.

Seems like a fairly simple game from the looks of things here, but my guess is the engine underneath is much more complicated. We'll see what st. cronin has planned for us.

[Alan T]

JHandey dola,

As usual, I will not be around in the daytime, as I work. I should show up later in the afternoon.

Seems like a fairly simple game from the looks of things here, but my guess is the engine underneath is much more complicated. We'll see what st. cronin has planned for us.

Cronin pretty much said it was going to be a simple game. I think the big difference on this game is the 24 hour clock. There are other small things such as the evil being split into different types of creatures, and two seers only able to see that particular type. Other than that, if its a simple game as far as complexity goes, I'm not sure what other differences there would be to look out for.

[Lorena]

Random Day 1 Vote:

VOTE JONATHAN EZARIK

Subject to change, yadda yadda yadda

[KWhit]

So, it occurs to me that my reply had nothing to do with your question. I suppose it does serve to bump my post count and get away from the dreaded "utr" title.

+1.

Does that count?

[KWhit]

Cronin pretty much said it was going to be a simple game. I think the big difference on this game is the 24 hour clock. There are other small things such as the evil being split into different types of creatures, and two seers only able to see that particular type. Other than that, if its a simple game as far as complexity goes, I'm not sure what other differences there would be to look out for.

I think you're probably right, but there was this little nugget from the ruleset:

There are unlisted roles in the game, as well.

[Alan T]

Does that mean Kate Beckinsale is in the game?

[DaddyTorgo]

oh fun...time for random D1 votes!

[LoneStarGirl]

I will be in Memphis umpiring a Dizzy Dean World Series tonight until tuesday night.... My games are over around 7 central so I should have no problem voting... but do not accuse me of being Under the Radar (Alant) when I am just working my butt off!

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Random Day 1 Vote:

VOTE JONATHAN EZARIK

Subject to change, yadda yadda yadda

Hey! I thought we were friends, DC. :(

On a serious note, what are the thoughts of not lynching anyone today? I know some people don't like to go a day without lynching, but in a game like this, how much would it hurt to not lynch on day one? Especially since none of us have any information at all. That is, I'm assuming no one has any info yet.

[Alan T]

Hey! I thought we were friends, DC. :(

On a serious note, what are the thoughts of not lynching anyone today? I know some people don't like to go a day without lynching, but in a game like this, how much would it hurt to not lynch on day one? Especially since none of us have any information at all. That is, I'm assuming no one has any info yet.


I used to be a firm proponent of always lynching.. but seeing how it played out in my last game I ran when people chose to no lynch instead of lynch Passacaglia who ended up being one of the game mvps for the good guys... I'm starting to waver a bit.

I probably would still be pro-lynch except I know one of the loudest No-lynch people on day 1s out there has always been St.Cronin. So would that mean he might build in some reason for it being wiser to do a no-lynch in this game to prove a point?

[cartman]

Hey! I thought we were friends, DC. :(

On a serious note, what are the thoughts of not lynching anyone today? I know some people don't like to go a day without lynching, but in a game like this, how much would it hurt to not lynch on day one? Especially since none of us have any information at all. That is, I'm assuming no one has any info yet.

that might work, as long as the wolves agree to not eat one of us...

:)

[Lathum]

I hate having no lynch day one.

Lynch=Information.

Information=Good.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I hate having no lynch day one.

Lynch=Information.

Information=Good.

Seriously, though, how much do we really learn from a day one lynch? And how many times do we end up lynching an important player on day one on accident?

[Barkeep49]

I'm also one of the loudest lynching proponents and I've built no lynching into my games, for no good reason except as a perceived slight benefit to the wolves, as well.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

that might work, as long as the wolves agree to not eat one of us...

:)

So we should make it easier for them by stumbling around in the dark on day one and randomly taking out a villager? That way they get a free kill without having to do anything?

I can understand in some games that a day one lynch can be useful, but I don't see what we would learn here.

[Lathum]

Seriously, though, how much do we really learn from a day one lynch? And how many times do we end up lynching an important player on day one on accident?

we usualy don't learn much right away but that analysis helps down the road.

Our day 2 guess will be no more educated then our day 1 guess unless the seer or BG out themselves so why prolong the enevitable?

[Lathum]

So we should make it easier for them by stumbling around in the dark on day one and randomly taking out a villager? That way they get a free kill without having to do anything?

I can understand in some games that a day one lynch can be useful, but I don't see what we would learn here.

The fact is in most games 4-5 villagers will be killed/ lynched before a clear picture can be made and we can make some educated guesses. A big part of that picture is voting patterns, including day 1.

If we wait until tomorrow all we accomplish is losing a villager without gaining information. It's like giving the wolves a night zero.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

we usualy don't learn much right away but that analysis helps down the road.

Our day 2 guess will be no more educated then our day 1 guess unless the seer or BG out themselves so why prolong the enevitable?

Maybe I'm rusty from not playing much lately, but I thought we pretty much always threw out day one votes when analyzing vote trends. And for day two, at least we have people getting out and about at night and possibly seeing each other. It's not perfect, but it's better than the completely random day one votes.

[Lathum]

Maybe I'm rusty from not playing much lately, but I thought we pretty much always threw out day one votes when analyzing vote trends. And for day two, at least we have people getting out and about at night and possibly seeing each other. It's not perfect, but it's better than the completely random day one votes.

I find the best way to gain information from a day one vote is to narrow it down to 2-3 candidates and see where people end up. In order for that to happen we need someone with multiple votes so....

VOTE JONATHAN EZARIK

I find it a little interesting that after DC votes you the no lynch on day 1 talk starts

[Telle]

I find the best way to gain information from a day one vote is to narrow it down to 2-3 candidates and see where people end up. In order for that to happen we need someone with multiple votes so....

VOTE JONATHAN EZARIK

I find it a little interesting that after DC votes you the no lynch on day 1 talk starts

You know, WW would be a great case study for "mob mentality". I saw your post and immediately felt compelled to vote for Jonathan Ezarik as well since there was now two people voting for him.

[Alan T]

That is how bandwagons start.

[Lathum]

That is how bandwagons start.

which doesn't help us at all.

We need to find another candidate or two, even if it is me.

I'll be gone most of the day so hopefully we can get something out of it.

[Telle]

Random Day 1 Vote:

VOTE JONATHAN EZARIK

Subject to change, yadda yadda yadda

Well since Dodgerchick started the voting, she can be the other candidate.

VOTE DODGERCHICK

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I find the best way to gain information from a day one vote is to narrow it down to 2-3 candidates and see where people end up. In order for that to happen we need someone with multiple votes so....

VOTE JONATHAN EZARIK

I find it a little interesting that after DC votes you the no lynch on day 1 talk starts

Cool. Go ahead and vote for me. When I turn up as good, this will come back and bite you in the ass because we all know that the second vote on someone (especially day one) is a wolf vote.

And this has nothing to do with DC voting for me. I was thinking last night that maybe we shouldn't lynch today because we have no information on which to base our votes, and I hate lynching someone just because we think we have to.

[KWhit]

When I turn up as good, this will come back and bite you in the ass because we all know that the second vote on someone (especially day one) is a wolf vote.

We do?

[Barkeep49]

Except I'm not sure when the last time a wolf actually did place a second vote. I certainly think Lathum would do this conventional/unconventional move but our criticism of people who cast second votes seems just to be something we do which I'm not sure has ever been grounded in fact.

I do think we've had much better luck with people who say they're wolves though and so I will always vote for people who state, in jest or not, that they are a wolf on Day 1.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Sorry, I meant to include a sarcastic smiley on my post regarding the second vote.

But isn't that how it usually works on day one? Player A votes Player B. Player B in turn votes Player A. No one wants to be accused of casting that important second vote on someone, so everyone votes for someone randomly that doesn't already have a vote.

As the day runs on, someone comes along, states that there has to be a lynch or the day is wasted, and casts a second vote. Eventually, others follow. When the person that is lynched turns up good, we all go after those that voted for that person in the following days. Almost always, those players are all good. Why? Because the wolves don't have to do anything on day one, unless we luck out and hit on one of them.

[JHandley]

Something to get the ball rolling.

VOTE TELLE

[Barkeep49]

JE, how will that differ than what happens on Day 2?

[Barkeep49]

In other words, I don't deny that Day 1 often seems random, but it gets discussion going, which is sueful, and gives us voting patterns, which is useful. In other words it generates information. I think we lose a day if we don't vote on Day 1 even if it often lynches a villager, which is what you would expect. In fact, in general, you'd expect earlier lynches to be more likely to hit villagers since they're somewhat random and there are more villagers than wolves.

[path12]

Sorry, I meant to include a sarcastic smiley on my post regarding the second vote.

But isn't that how it usually works on day one? Player A votes Player B. Player B in turn votes Player A. No one wants to be accused of casting that important second vote on someone, so everyone votes for someone randomly that doesn't already have a vote.

As the day runs on, someone comes along, states that there has to be a lynch or the day is wasted, and casts a second vote. Eventually, others follow. When the person that is lynched turns up good, we all go after those that voted for that person in the following days. Almost always, those players are all good. Why? Because the wolves don't have to do anything on day one, unless we luck out and hit on one of them.

Pretty much sums up why I hate day 1's so much.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

At least some people will have knowledge by then. Day two is still mostly a shot in the dark, but it's better than what we have now.

[Barkeep49]

At least some people will have knowledge by then. Day two is still mostly a shot in the dark, but it's better than what we have now.
Yeah but we don't want that knowledge communicated, so it's great that there is some knowledge but it's not easy to access it for villagers.

[Telle]

Something to get the ball rolling.

VOTE TELLE

Hey! :)

[JHandley]

I don't think Day 2 is going to have any more information than Day 1 without a catalyst. The seers will have limited information and won't really be able to get it out without fear of outting themselves.

I think there's gotta be a lynching if for no other reason than it gets people talking.

[cartman]

well, third vote's a charm, right?

VOTE JONATHAN EZARIK

[Jonathan Ezarik]

In other words, I don't deny that Day 1 often seems random, but it gets discussion going, which is sueful, and gives us voting patterns, which is useful. In other words it generates information. I think we lose a day if we don't vote on Day 1 even if it often lynches a villager, which is what you would expect. In fact, in general, you'd expect earlier lynches to be more likely to hit villagers since they're somewhat random and there are more villagers than wolves.

But really, what voting patterns do we get on day one? How many times have we lynched villagers because of a day one vote? And if it comes down to two or three villagers today, what do we learn from that? The wolves don't have to do anything today. Just sit back and watch us kill one of our own.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I find it a little interesting that after DC votes you the no lynch on day 1 talk starts

To go back to this, if I was a wolf would I be drawing so much attention to myself on day one? No. I would have just voted DC and left it alone.

[KWhit]

Just to keep things close...

VOTE TELLE

[st.cronin]

Game note: Tie votes end in no lynch (generally speaking).

alternately

Game note: Tie votes end in no lynch (generally speaking).

[Telle]

Ok so that's three on JE, two on me, and one on DC so far. At least we have something to talk about :)

[Telle]

Ok so that's three on JE, two on me, and one on DC so far. At least we have something to talk about :)

And am I just a total geek for tracking this in a Google Spreadsheet? :)

[JHandley]

I don't know about geek, but definitely sounds a little mad. Almost like a mad scientist.

[Telle]

Lol. Nice spin. Sorry, but I'm just a plain old villager.

[cartman]

Jonathan looking good in pre-lynching.

[Lorena]

And am I just a total geek for tracking this in a Google Spreadsheet? :)

Just a quick note, nope, not at all... I used to track votes all the time. The beauty about Google spreadsheets is that you have instant access no matter where you go. :)

[Barkeep49]

The math dictates that overwhelming a villager will be lynched in early votes, especially as the wolves are unlikely to "randomly" be voting for a wolf during the first two votes. So yes we'll likely lynch a villager, but we have a 0% chance of lynching a wolf if we lynch no one. Assuming 3 wolves we have a 16% chance of finding one today and four wolves, more likely in this case as I think there could be 3 regular wolves + mad scientist, would give us a 21% chance (though as I noted it's slightly less because the wolves can coordinate against our randomly succeeding). Of course there is a 95% chance of that we'll lose a villager tonight which is why I'd rather take our chances in the day.

However, as I've thought this through one could actually argue the math does favor a no lynch on Day 1.

We have 2 wolf detectors and 1 mad scientist detector. Tonight, if we don't lynch anyone, and assuming there are 3 wolves, we have a 31% chance of finding a wolf plus a 5% chance of finding the scientist giving us a total bad guy chance of 36% (slightly less as there’s about a 1% chance that the wolves would choose a seer who happens to find a wolf). Two wolves plus mad scientist gives us a 27% chance of finding a wolf. This compares well with our 21% or 16% day time chance (again less because it’s not completely random).

Now, if we do lynch, the math gets considerably more complex and unless someone is really interested I don’t think I feel like working it out (as it would involve a whole bunch of probability squares), but there’s a 16% chance we’d accidentally lynch a seer thus reducing our chances at finding a wolf.

With three seers, and what I perceive to be an abnormally high seer/wolf ratio (owing to the existence of so many seers) I think it could be argued that no lynch is actually the EV play here.

[KWhit]

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?

Mad Scientist - You have found Dr. Frankenstein's old notes, and have begun work on an army of lycanthropes. If lynched, you will turn up as human, but for game purposes you count as a wolf.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?

That's how I see it as well.

[path12]

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?

That's my take.

[path12]

For something different:

VOTE NO LYNCH

I could change my mind.

[Barkeep49]

I'm assuming Mad Scientist = conversion ability. Is that everybody else's take on the role?
Hmm. That's certainly possible but I considered it more as a wolf who is harder to detect. But the conversion is an interesting possibility and would lean it towards the game being a 2 wolf + 1 mad scientist game to start with.

[KWhit]

Obviously, my thinking comes from this:

and have begun work on an army of lycanthropes

[JHandley]

Can't be as simple as tapping someone on the shoulder. I would imagine there's hidden factors in the Mad Scientist's role.

[Telle]

So two games ago Barkeep proclaimed loudly for a day and a half that not lynching is a bad idea with absolutely no value. Then today he comes out with a very compelling, mathematically based argument as to why in this particular game not lynching might be beneficial.

So, he could be a wolf and still heartedly believes that not lynching is only good for the wolves. But that would be somewhat foolish because he'd only be able to use that argument once before it was obvious in any game he tried it.

So, for the moment at least I'll go along with his train of thought.

UNVOTE DODGERCHICK
VOTE NO LYNCH

[JHandley]

To extrapolate on the idea of the Mad Scientist, I think lynching on the first day does have value.

I can't believe the Mad Scientist role is as simple as the person telling someone they are now a wolf. I think they will need to accumulate other players knowledge before they can start to amass an army of lycanthropes. This is what I think the rules are refering to when they claim there are other hidden roles in this game. I don't think the value of possibly eliminating the Mad Scientist or the "ingredients" they need to complete the research can be taken for granted.

The math adds up only if you have a known quantity of variables. Right now, we don't know anything. If we could be assured that there were only 3 wolves, then the math absolutely makes sense to wait until more information is available. However, we don't know (a) how many wolves there are or (b) how many wolves there could be in the future. For this reason I think we have to take the action to the wolves.

[LoneStarGirl]

Well you know me, and I hate having ties and I hate no lynch first days, I think they both help the wolves too much.

And does anybody have a vote count? It looks like this Day 1 is going to be close

[Telle]

So how do conversions usually work? This is only my second game and I'm not really understanding that bit of it.

[Telle]

JE - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
no lynch - path12, Telle

[RendeR]

Somehow watching the iananity of Day one voting just makes me shake my head in wonderment.

[KWhit]

Somehow watching the iananity of Day one voting just makes me shake my head in wonderment.

There's not much alternative, IMO. Especially if there are conversions in this game. We don't need to just stand around chatting while wolves kill us or convert us.

It sucks to have to vote day 1, but at least there's a chance that it will help us down the road.

[Alan T]

The math dictates that overwhelming a villager will be lynched in early votes, especially as the wolves are unlikely to "randomly" be voting for a wolf during the first two votes. So yes we'll likely lynch a villager, but we have a 0% chance of lynching a wolf if we lynch no one. Assuming 3 wolves we have a 16% chance of finding one today and four wolves, more likely in this case as I think there could be 3 regular wolves + mad scientist, would give us a 21% chance (though as I noted it's slightly less because the wolves can coordinate against our randomly succeeding). Of course there is a 95% chance of that we'll lose a villager tonight which is why I'd rather take our chances in the day.

However, as I've thought this through one could actually argue the math does favor a no lynch on Day 1.

We have 2 wolf detectors and 1 mad scientist detector. Tonight, if we don't lynch anyone, and assuming there are 3 wolves, we have a 31% chance of finding a wolf plus a 5% chance of finding the scientist giving us a total bad guy chance of 36% (slightly less as there’s about a 1% chance that the wolves would choose a seer who happens to find a wolf). Two wolves plus mad scientist gives us a 27% chance of finding a wolf. This compares well with our 21% or 16% day time chance (again less because it’s not completely random).

Now, if we do lynch, the math gets considerably more complex and unless someone is really interested I don’t think I feel like working it out (as it would involve a whole bunch of probability squares), but there’s a 16% chance we’d accidentally lynch a seer thus reducing our chances at finding a wolf.

With three seers, and what I perceive to be an abnormally high seer/wolf ratio (owing to the existence of so many seers) I think it could be argued that no lynch is actually the EV play here.


Just got back in and catching up, but it sounds here like you've gone through some of the same thoughts that i have and why I am starting to budge from my pro-lynch thoughts over the last few days.

One thing though, you mention three seers. I thought we only had 1 who could find a wolf and 1 who could find the mad scientist?

[KWhit]

Just got back in and catching up, but it sounds here like you've gone through some of the same thoughts that i have and why I am starting to budge from my pro-lynch thoughts over the last few days.

One thing though, you mention three seers. I thought we only had 1 who could find a wolf and 1 who could find the mad scientist?

Van Helsing "may" identify a wolf according to the rules.

[Barkeep49]

Yeah I'm getting that from "If the player is a wolf, you may discover his identity - as he will yours."

I hadn't read that with the may the first time. My calculations would be very different depending on what percent of a chance that may is. If it's a 50% chance, for instance, it would only be about a 29% chance of finding 3 wolves and 22% of finding 2 wolves.

[Lathum]

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.

[Telle]

Although do you think a seer would just go to their lynching quietly? Don't you think they'd speak up if it was pretty obvious that we were about to kill them off?

[KWhit]

Yeah I'm getting that from "If the player is a wolf, you may discover his identity - as he will yours."

I hadn't read that with the may the first time. My calculations would be very different depending on what percent of a chance that may is. If it's a 50% chance, for instance, it would only be about a 29% chance of finding 3 wolves and 22% of finding 2 wolves.

Exactly. And with the possibility of conversions, it throws your conclusions even more in doubt.

I have no idea if it makes more sense to lynch or not lynch today. I can actually see arguments for either.

[Schmidty]

For something different:

VOTE NO LYNCH

I could change my mind.

I'm not a good WW player, but even I know that a NO Lynch this early is horrible for us villagers.

And because I have no real reason to vote for anyone:

Vote path12

This is subject to change as well. :)

[KWhit]

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.

And I don't know if I was clear in my previous post, but I don't think the math BK did is valid at all, actually, because there's too much we don't know about the rules.

No offense to BK intended...

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.

I still don't understand how lynching a villager is a good play on day one. If we lynch a villager, that gives the wolves one less person they have to go after on night one. Which gives them a better chance at hitting an important role.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Although do you think a seer would just go to their lynching quietly? Don't you think they'd speak up if it was pretty obvious that we were about to kill them off?

Another strike against a day one lynch. On the off chance that we do hit on a seer, we either kill them or they draw so much attention to themselves that the wolves get to them early.

[KWhit]

I still don't understand how lynching a villager is a good play on day one. If we lynch a villager, that gives the wolves one less person they have to go after on night one. Which gives them a better chance at hitting an important role.

You can say that for every night.

How is lynching a villager on day 2 a good play? What about day 3?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Might as well get this out of the way because I'm not changing my mind on this.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[KWhit]

And just to clarify, I don't feel really strongly either way about a lynch today or not. But for the most part, if we don't lynch today, then day 2 will feel almost just as random as day 1. The seer (and maybe Van Helsing) may have a little bit more info, but for the rest of us simple villagers it will still be a totally random vote.

[path12]

Although do you think a seer would just go to their lynching quietly? Don't you think they'd speak up if it was pretty obvious that we were about to kill them off?

If you're a seer and it looks like you're going down, then yeah, you should come out. It's tricky timing though, you want to wait as long as you can to protect having to come out, but you need to be early enough that people can switch off you.

At least that way you get one view before the wolves get you, which is worse than more but better than none.

[KWhit]

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
path12 - Schmidty
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik

[Jonathan Ezarik]

You can say that for every night.

How is lynching a villager on day 2 a good play? What about day 3?

Sigh. I guess I have to keep on repeating myself here. Look, I know that day two is not much better in terms of knowledge gathered, but there is still knowledge that comes into play. As it stands now, no one (minus the wolves) has any knowledge about anyone else. None. After tonight, some will have gained some info while others are still ignorant. But at least some good guys will have info which is better than nothing.

[LoneStarGirl]

And I don't know if I was clear in my previous post, but I don't think the math BK did is valid at all, actually, because there's too much we don't know about the rules.

No offense to BK intended...

Its okay, its obvious he isn't a math major ;) :D

[path12]

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

[KWhit]

Sigh. I guess I have to keep on repeating myself here. Look, I know that day two is not much better in terms of knowledge gathered, but there is still knowledge that comes into play. As it stands now, no one (minus the wolves) has any knowledge about anyone else. None. After tonight, some will have gained some info while others are still ignorant. But at least some good guys will have info which is better than nothing.

Yes, you're right. However, a night has gone by without the villagers taking action, but letting the wolves kill one of us off and possibly converting one of us.

It just gives the wolves an extra day to do their thing - which is not good for us.

[LoneStarGirl]

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

I have to agree with you on that one

[Telle]

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

Antmeister is the only player to not yet check in.

[Barkeep49]

Math be damned, I am still not a fan of giving the wolves a head start.
You realize there's a nearly equal likelihood that we lynch a useful villager role as a wolf?

[KWhit]

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

Agreed.

[LoneStarGirl]

Votes as of 2 pm Central
Chief Rum 2
DaddyTorgo 2
Gonzo 1
Neon_Chaos 1
tanglewood 1
Antmeister 0

[LoneStarGirl]

Because I am *still* confused about the last game we played, and because he has only had one post

vote tanglewood

[KWhit]

Votes as of 2 pm Central
Chief Rum 2
DaddyTorgo 2
Gonzo 1
Neon_Chaos 1
tanglewood 1
Antmeister 0

Huh?

[LoneStarGirl]

DC where is your man?

[Barkeep49]

And I don't know if I was clear in my previous post, but I don't think the math BK did is valid at all, actually, because there's too much we don't know about the rules.

No offense to BK intended...
None taken but what besides the Van Helsing thing do you think we don't know?

I frankly don't tend to put a lot of stock in statements such as "there might be other hidden roles". I feel those statements are more often about giving the wolf's freedom to lie than they are about significant roles. I would say hidden roles are most likely along the lines of a Duke and special abilities for the wolves.

[Lathum]

At some point you have to break some eggs to make an omlette.

When the vote is spread out day one you don't learn much but if it is down to 2-3 candidates you give yourself something to go on.

[LoneStarGirl]

Huh?

Sorry Kwit... that is supposed to be POSTS AS OF 2PM CENTRAL,
not votes

[KWhit]

Here's the vote count I have:

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
path12 - Schmidty
tanglewood - LoneStarGirl
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik

[Barkeep49]

Agreed.
That is a favorite thing for me to do as well since I like to encourage participation as I think it helps flush out wolves.

[Lathum]

You realize there's a nearly equal likelihood that we lynch a useful villager role as a wolf?

I realize that but then this person could at least speak up to avoid being lynched.

[Lathum]

dola- I'm playing to lynch a wolf. Not to avoid lynching a valuable role.

[KWhit]

None taken but what besides the Van Helsing thing do you think we don't know?

I think it's very possible that the Mad Scientist is a conversion role. That possibility was not included in your math (and if it is a conversion role, we have no idea how often he can convert someone - every 2 days, every 3 days).

[Alan T]

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

Lately I've been waiting till later to vote. I know nothing really coming in to the day, so just try to see what happens during the day and then see who the votes are between and try to take my best guess.

I figure, I as a good person might as well manipulate the vote knowing nothing rather than a wolf try to manipulate the vote knowing what they do know.

[Lathum]

Here's the vote count I have:

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
path12 - Schmidty
tanglewood - LoneStarGirl
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik

This illustrates my point.

LSG and Schmidty just randomly cast their votes despite there being alot of discussion about narrowing down candidates or no lynch.

Now why did they do that?

[KWhit]

Yes, and on day 1 I like to put an early vote out there to see what happens (hopefully keeping it to a tight 2-3 person race), but often will change it as I see what people are saying.

[KWhit]

Yes, and on day 1 I like to put an early vote out there to see what happens (hopefully keeping it to a tight 2-3 person race), but often will change it as I see what people are saying.

That was in response to AlanT.

[LoneStarGirl]

This illustrates my point.

LSG and Schmidty just randomly cast their votes despite there being alot of discussion about narrowing down candidates or no lynch.

Now why did they do that?

In my dozens of games playing have I EVER wanted a no lynch or tie? NEVER... so why do you think I would vote no lynch today?

And I am more than happy to vote for JE or Telle... but what does that accomplish? There is no reason anybody vote for them, it's a just because. At least I have a reason for Tanglewood... he has 1 vote on him. I, along with at least 4 other players it looks like, likes voting for the quiet players in the first days to flush out wolves.

Satisfied?

[Telle]

This illustrates my point.

LSG and Schmidty just randomly cast their votes despite there being alot of discussion about narrowing down candidates or no lynch.

Now why did they do that?

It's still early. I would think that the more the votes are spread around the more people there are to talk about the more discussion there is the more information is learned. Then the votes will hopefully tighten up closer to deadline.

[Alan T]

Well I don't just check in at the end and throw out a vote. I'm usually involved in the conversation throughout the day.. So it would be pretty difficult to confuse me with someone who hasn't voted or participated yet.

I just don't have anything to go on. So I could just throw out a random vote with the intention of later changing it, but that doesn't really accomplish much. I usually just try to see how people participate in the conversations and see if anything jumps out at me.

If in the end, I don't really have a gut feel for anyone I'll just vote for someone who doesn't seem to be participating. The worst thing for us is wolves. The next worst thing are villagers who don't contribute anything.

[path12]

Lately I've been waiting till later to vote. I know nothing really coming in to the day, so just try to see what happens during the day and then see who the votes are between and try to take my best guess.

I figure, I as a good person might as well manipulate the vote knowing nothing rather than a wolf try to manipulate the vote knowing what they do know.

Yeah, me too. I usually don't have that much to say day 1 anyway, and the early speculation normally just turns into bickering. I'd rather let the contenders filter out and make a choice at the end or even just toss the vote away elsewhere if I don't like how the contenders were chosen. I think this is probably my earliest day 1 vote ever, and it's likely to change.

[Lathum]

In my dozens of games playing have I EVER wanted a no lynch or tie? NEVER... so why do you think I would vote no lynch today? ?

I wasn't suggesting you vote no lynch


And I am more than happy to vote for JE or Telle... but what does that accomplish?

It norrows down the candidates so we can see if there is any late movement, etc... A single throw away vote gives us no information down the road.

There is no reason anybody vote for them, it's a just because. At least I have a reason for Tanglewood... he has 1 vote on him. I, along with at least 4 other players it looks like, likes voting for the quiet players in the first days to flush out wolves.

Tanglewood is in a different time zone and that could be why he is quiet

Satisfied?

so far. I'm not trying to attack you, vote for who you like, the only ones with any information this point are the wolves so there is nothing to indicate your vote is incorrect. My point is just that the more spread out the day one votes are the more counter productive it is for us down the road and the people who are the catalysts for that look suspiscous IMO.

[Barkeep49]

I think it's very possible that the Mad Scientist is a conversion role. That possibility was not included in your math (and if it is a conversion role, we have no idea how often he can convert someone - every 2 days, every 3 days).
Actually conversion is irrelevant to my math. My math depends on how many wolves there are right now, not the possibility of future days.

I think we have several people in this game who can do the village favors. Letting them collect their evidence, and not lynching them before we can gain ANY information out of them (as once they publicly identify themselves they are as good as dead) seems bad. I'm much rather lynch one of our seers tomorrow when we could at least get 1 piece of information from them.

I am amenable to changing, but I think I'm going to go with voting no lynch today.

[Lathum]

I think we will be making a mistake with no lynch.

Tomorrow we will be sitting around saying " ok, and we are still on square one"
except we will be down one villager and still have no information to work with.

Then what? No lynch again?

At some point we will have to take action I think it should be sooner rather then later.

[KWhit]

Actually conversion is irrelevant to my math. My math depends on how many wolves there are right now, not the possibility of future days.

The point I am making is that especially in a game where conversions may happen, villagers should want the game to progress as quickly as possible, giving less time for the wolves to pick us off or convert us.

[KWhit]

I think we will be making a mistake with no lynch.

Tomorrow we will be sitting around saying " ok, and we are still on square one"
except we will be down one villager and still have no information to work with.

Then what? No lynch again?

At some point we will have to take action I think it should be sooner rather then later.

Yes. I think no lynch benefits the wolves.

[Lathum]

Well I am out until after the deadline. I hope we find a good candidate to lynch otherwise it's day one all over again tomorrow.

[KWhit]

I dunno if I'll be around later or not, so I'm going to switch my vote to tangle since he's been pretty absent from the thread (just one post so far). And he already has a vote on him, so it will keep the voting close, which is important on day 1, I believe.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[Lathum]

dola- LSG I wasn't attacking your vote, just using it to point out the difference between a productive day one and a counter productive. Please don't take offense.

[Lathum]

kwhit ruined my dola

[KWhit]

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley
path12 - Schmidty
tanglewood - LoneStarGirl, KWhit
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik, BarKeep49

[KWhit]

Out for a while. I'll try to make it back before lynch.

[Alan T]

It feels so sureal seeing Barkeep argue the opposite side of the no lynch thing after watching as a GM in sorcery hill

[Telle]

I'm taking off too. Will hopefully be back before the deadline.

[Barkeep49]

It feels so sureal seeing Barkeep argue the opposite side of the no lynch thing after watching as a GM in sorcery hill
I think there's math to it here and I try to play rationally.

[Lorena]

DC where is your man?

He hasn't posted? Someone send him a PM and remind him!!!!

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- And in your game the opposite was true as roles which would reveal information were more likely to occur later in the game than earlier. I think the risk/reward of lynching today versus letting our roles do their work is just too high to justify a day 1 lynch. I view this game as an aberration in my overall stance and in fact only came around as I begun to crunch the numbers to try and support my lynch contention.

[cartman]

Hmmm, a cloud of suspicion now gathers over Ant...

[Lorena]

He hasn't posted? Someone send him a PM and remind him!!!!

This post was making light of the time I got lynched because I IMed DaddyTorgo to remind him to vote.

It's one of those WW unwritten rule thingies that we're not allowed to remind players even with the best of intentions. And if you do, don't be stupid enough to post it like I did.

[path12]

Out for awhile. Back before deadline.

[JHandley]

I'll be the first to put Ant on the firing line. Tangle at least has an ocean on his side to account for inactivity.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE ANTMEISTER

[cartman]

I too will now be out, for about three hours. I'm driving up to Ft. Worth and should be there by 7pm Central.

[Schmidty]

I think we will be making a mistake with no lynch.

I agree, and THAT'S the reason I voted for the first person to call for a no vote - path12. It wasn't really a random vote per se. I even said in that post that it was subject to change. I just don't feel good about people that no vote on day 1.

[st.cronin]

Official GM count:

3 - Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick (63), Lathum (79), cartman (96)
2 - tanglewood - LoneStarGirl (146), KWhit (171)
1 - path12 - Schmidty (128)
1 - Antmeister - JHandley (184)
3 - NO LYNCH - path12 (111), Telle (115), Jonathan Ezarik (133)

Not voted - Antmeister, DaddyTorgo, RendeR, Barkeep49, Alan T, Chief Rum, Gonzo, Neon Chaos, tanglewood


Keep in mind that with the voting rules, not voting counts as a vote for NO LYNCH, so right now there are technically 12 votes for NO LYNCH.

[Barkeep49]

I voted no lynch in 166

[DaddyTorgo]

busy day. Just got in. Lemme catch up

[DaddyTorgo]

as usual on D1 not much consensus.

As mentioned, it's curious to see Barkeep of all people arguing for no-lynch. BK...care to summarize what about crunching the math leads you to that conclusion?

[st.cronin]

I voted no lynch in 166


I am amenable to changing, but I think I'm going to go with voting no lynch today.

Per the rules, that's not exactly a valid vote.

[LoneStarGirl]

dola- LSG I wasn't attacking your vote, just using it to point out the difference between a productive day one and a counter productive. Please don't take offense.

I dont.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Yes, you're right. However, a night has gone by without the villagers taking action, but letting the wolves kill one of us off and possibly converting one of us.

It just gives the wolves an extra day to do their thing - which is not good for us.

Someone please explain to me how lynching a villager is good for the rest of the villagers?

Let's assume that I get lynched today. I'm a good guy. So, after I get lynched, we are down one good guy. That leaves 18 players.

Let's assume there are two wolves in play right now, plus the Mad Scientist. Three baddies out of 18.

Let's assume they can make a kill tonight to bring that number down to 17.

Let's assume that there is the ability to convert a player (which I believe there is). And that conversion can occur tonight. So they convert someone tonight bringing their total to four. Four out of 17.

That means we lose three good guys in one day. Two dead and one converted. So, again, how does a no lynch help the wolves?

[Antmeister]

Hmmm, a cloud of suspicion now gathers over Ant...

No clouds here, unless you are talking about the weather in that far off land called Austin, TX. :D

I have finally read some of this thread and my vote:
VOTE NO LYNCH

There is just no way for me to know who is who at this point and I don't want to randomly pick off someone.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

At some point you have to break some eggs to make an omlette.

When the vote is spread out day one you don't learn much but if it is down to 2-3 candidates you give yourself something to go on.

Unless the two candidates are both good (which is most likely to happen). What do we learn then? We only learn something if one of the candidates is a wolf.

[JHandley]

At what point, in any WW game has the identity of a wolf been absolutely known for sure? I'm a rookie here, but it seems to me that even with seers, it would take 3 days to get a definitive answer to that question.

Are you suggesting we wait 3 days before we start lynching?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I realize that but then this person could at least speak up to avoid being lynched.

Um, so someone starts making noise about being voted on, and yet you still keep your vote there. Now, I'm not claiming any role because I don't have one, but if you really believe this you would have moved your vote off me.

Also, following this train of thought, if we happened to have a seer as one of the two candidates you would want them to out themselves on day one? Whose side are you on?

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Jonathan Ezarik]

At what point, in any WW game has the identity of a wolf been absolutely known for sure? I'm a rookie here, but it seems to me that even with seers, it would take 3 days to get a definitive answer to that question.

Are you suggesting we wait 3 days before we start lynching?

Of course not. In some games I think a day one lynch is important. Actually, in most games a lynch is required. However, in this game there is no penalty in not lynching. And since we have absolutely no knowledge at all right now, we are stumbling around in the dark hoping we land a wolf and avoid an important role.

Tomorrow is a different story. That gives everyone that has night actions a chance to use them. If we happen to select a seer tomorrow for lynch, we can at least get some info from them before they go. And who knows, we might get lucky and catch a wolf in action tonight?

[Gonzo]

I dunno if I'll be around later or not, so I'm going to switch my vote to tangle since he's been pretty absent from the thread (just one post so far). And he already has a vote on him, so it will keep the voting close, which is important on day 1, I believe.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE TANGLEWOOD

I can't speak for what he did earlier during the day, but we've just come back from watching The Simpsons Movie after eating out. I'd rate the film a 7.5, by the way.

Incidentally, I'm voting No Lynch. I'm pretty sure that a wolf has never been lynched on day one, and at any rate, how much information does a lynched villager (or scanner, god forbid) with no voting records tell us?

Vote No Lynch

[Lorena]

So we have:

"official" No Lynch (6) - Antmeister, DaddyTorgo, Gonzo, Jonathan Ezarik, path12, telle

Jonathan Ezarik (3) - cartman, Dodgerchick, Lathum

tanglewood (2) - Kwhit, LSG

Antmeister (1) - JHandley

path12 (1) - Schmidty

no votes (same as "no lynches") (6) - AlanT, Barkeep, Chief Rum, Neon Chaos, RendeR

I've been away for several games and I'm actually a bit shocked on how this "no-lynch" scenario is playing out... I thought lynches were good? I agree with Jhandley and Lathum, we have to start lynching someone and Day 1 is as good as any IMO... at least it's a shot. A shot in the dark, but it's a shot.

[Alan T]

I can't speak for what he did earlier during the day, but we've just come back from watching The Simpsons Movie after eating out. I'd rate the film a 7.5, by the way.

Incidentally, I'm voting No Lynch. I'm pretty sure that a wolf has never been lynched on day one, and at any rate, how much information does a lynched villager (or scanner, god forbid) with no voting records tell us?

Vote No Lynch

Technically a wolf has been lynched on day1 a few times :)

[Lorena]

Technically a wolf has been lynched on day1 a few times :)

Oh yeah, like saldana getting lynched for not being around when his wife was in labor? :D

[path12]

Oh yeah, like saldana getting lynched for not being around when his wife was in labor? :D

Yeah, that was poor timing on her part.

[KWhit]

Someone please explain to me how lynching a villager is good for the rest of the villagers?


I think there's math to it here and I try to play rationally.

Response to these 2 arguments:

So why should we ever lynch anybody unless we're 100% sure the person is a wolf?

Should we just wait around 3-4 days until the seer gets lucky? And not only gets lucky, but actually reveals himself and comes out saying "So-and-so is a wolf. Vote for him."

Because otherwise, your arguments should be the same every single day, because we're ALWAYS more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf, until of course, we get to a 1 to 1 ratio at which point we LOSE.

[Barkeep49]

Per the rules, that's not exactly a valid vote.
VOTE NO LYNCH






































I THINK I AM ONLY GOING TO TALK IN CAPS NOW :)

[Barkeep49]

Response to these 2 arguments:

So why should we ever lynch anybody unless we're 100% sure the person is a wolf?

Should we just wait around 3-4 days until the seer gets lucky? And not only gets lucky, but actually reveals himself and comes out saying "So-and-so is a wolf. Vote for him."

Because otherwise, your arguments should be the same every single day, because we're ALWAYS more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf, until of course, we get to a 1 to 1 ratio at which point we LOSE.
I've actually not argued this, though I think JE has.

My argument is that there is a substantial likelihood of gaining useful information to us tonight, more than a lynch would tell us. Further, our lynch has a high probability of lynching someone with one of the three useful roles to us before any information had been gathered. I would prefer to think of today as Day 0, give our seers a chance to do their business, and then begin, armed with some info, by reckoning we should have 3 pieces of information tomorrow known (but kept quiet), to lynch people. In this particular game, with 3 people who have some seer abilities, I think we need a different approach for Day 1 and only Day 1.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I'm not advocating that we should never lynch anyone unless we are 100% certain they're a wolf, because honestly, unless I'm a seer, I'm never 100% sold on anyone. I'm saying we avoid a lynch when we have absolutely no information at all. Tomorrow, some of us will have something to go on, which even though it's not a lot, is better than what we're working with now.

[Gonzo]

Technically a wolf has been lynched on day1 a few times :)

What chance do we have of that happening this time around? Far more likely we'll lynch a good guy.

[Alan T]

What chance do we have of that happening this time around? Far more likely we'll lynch a good guy.


I am not sure if Im voting no lynch yet or not, but the point that usually is used to counter this is the realization that the odds will always be more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf, because once wolves get down to 1:1 with the villagers they win :)

That said, like I mentioned earlier, the last few games I've come around a bit more on this thinking, especially after seeing what happened with Pass in my game I ran.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

What chance do we have of that happening this time around? Far more likely we'll lynch a good guy.

Especially when we don't know how many baddies are out there. For all we know, the only bad guy in play right now could be the Mad Scientist.

[Lorena]

Well, it seems lynch is less than 2 hours away and there are essentially 12 No-Lynch votes with Jonathan Ezarik being next with 3 votes.

It's pretty much a done deal... we're heading the No-Lynch route :(

[KWhit]

Oh well... It doesn't look like we're going to have a lynch tonight anyway, since a ton of people haven't voted yet.

And tonight the no-lynch vote is a perfect place for a ww to hide his vote.

[Lorena]

Oh well... It doesn't look like we're going to have a lynch tonight anyway, since a ton of people haven't voted yet.

And tonight the no-lynch vote is a perfect place for a ww to hide his vote.

lol

get outta my head ;)

[JHandley]

I'm off until after the deadline. I'm leaving my vote on Antmeister due to lack of input from him. Regardless, no lynch is going to win in a landslide.

[Lorena]

I'm off until after the deadline. I'm leaving my vote on Antmeister due to lack of input from him. Regardless, no lynch is going to win in a landslide.

Totally.

So are we gonna head the no-lynch route tomorrow as well because we don't know who is and who isn't a wolf?

*sigh*

[Lorena]

OUT

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Totally.

So are we gonna head the no-lynch route tomorrow as well because we don't know who is and who isn't a wolf?

*sigh*

Am I speaking in a vacuum here? I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. I repeat: I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. When we have some information. Killing someone just because gives a free kill to the wolves. Especially in a game like this where the only ones with information now is the wolves and there is no penalty for not lynching, I see absolutely nothing that could be gained by us killing a villager on day one.

[Barkeep49]

It's funny how well I understand the frustrations of DC and KWhit having been there in Alan's game.

[bulletsponge]

WTF!!!

if i had any idea there was a Kate Beckinsale WW game going i would have joined!

[KWhit]

WTF!!!

if i had any idea there was a Kate Beckinsale WW game going i would have joined!

Kate is one of my favorites.

[Chief Rum]

All right, finally caught up. It seems unlikely those favoring a lynch can turn the tide. But I'll give it a shot, because I think we have enough seer types and potential other roles (if we assume st. cronin's last comment in the rules wasn't just window dressing) to make a lynch more valuable than not. In the previous game where this discussion came up, I was a strong advocate for the no lynch because it seemed likely to be difficult to get the information we needed for spells and potions quickly. Ergo, a lynch on Day One means we have one less day to figure things out. I don't foresee that being an issue in this game, where standard info gathering roles seem to be more in place.

I am going to vote for the lynch leader, although it's no reflection on JE, whom I have no evidence against whatsoever. I just figured if there's a chance to get a lynch, I might as well pile on the highest votegetter.

VOTE JONATHON EZARIK

[RendeR]

No lynch is a bad decision, lynch someone, anyone.

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

[st.cronin]

Updated

7 - NO LYNCH - path12 (111), Telle (115), Jonathan Ezarik (133), Barkee49 (166), Antmeister (194), DaddyTorgo (198), Gonzo (200)
5 - Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick (63), Lathum (79), cartman (96), Chief Rum, (222), RendeR (223)
2 - tanglewood - LoneStarGirl (146), KWhit (171)
1 - path12 - Schmidty (128)
1 - Antmeister - JHandley (184)

Not voted - Alan T, Neon Chaos, tanglewood

[tanglewood]

Am I speaking in a vacuum here? I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. I repeat: I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. When we have some information. Killing someone just because gives a free kill to the wolves. Especially in a game like this where the only ones with information now is the wolves and there is no penalty for not lynching, I see absolutely nothing that could be gained by us killing a villager on day one.

The only problem is this, how will said dissemination of informatino proceed? Yes we will have one player who will know whether another is a good guy or a wolf (but the could turn up not wolf and still be the mad scientist and therefore bad) and one player who would know whether another is the scientist or not (but again they could still be a bad wolf) and another who could know a wolf, but would comprimise himself if he did. The only scenario here where it makes sense is if Van Helsing is remarkably lucky/unlucky and views a wolf thus is forced to reveal tomorrow for a one for one trade. Great for the village but very unlikely.

In the other scenarios we get a situation where two of our number have very limited informatino indeed. Yes it is more information, but it is really minimal. Also it is difficult for those who have the information to tell the others. Even if we do wait today and lynch tomorrow, chances are we will have two fairly random candidates put up as if it was on day 1 anyway and the only way that either of them will be shifted off is on the 1/9 chance that the good scientist viewed one of the main candidates, one in 18 if it is a runaway vote. If the good scientist does find a wolf tonight then he will have to push very hard in order to get him lynched tommorow as noone else would sure have any chance of having such a high level of suspicion, and essentially paint a large target on his back for the wolves. A one for one trade for our main seer with one wolf is not good on day 2 imho, especially if he can remain hidden and reveal later with more views completed.

However if we proceed and lynch today, then have a kill at night automatically we know the alignments of two players in the game. Thus we can go back and see who they voted for, what they posted on day 1 with complete information about their role. This is very valuable. You can see who they argued with and against, who posted before and after them (wolves often post at around the same times as each other as they often formulate a plan then put it into action quickly. See the last game which I GMed, Barkeep and path12 both regulary posted within 5 minutes of each other), their opinon on other players and plenty. Also, on future days when we have the identity of players it helps looking back at voting records. For example on day 5 we may find a player who has voted soley for villagers to date in the game, if we no lynched today however we essentially allow the wolves to hide their votes amongst the crowds. We have absolutely zero differentiation between wolves and humans here because it is obvious that we will get a no lynch with the numbers as it is so soon to deadline, so it is a throwaway vote, the wolves can vote for whoever and it doesn't matter.

Simply put, the pressure of a villager being killed at the end of the day forces people to act seriously, reason clearly and consider their vote. Even on day 1 you need a logical reason to vote for someone, particulary as you can change your vote as the day progresses. This pressure creates analysable situations, because without that pressure it is worthless, there is no incentive for anyone to take today's vote seriously.

So yes the statistics are hugely in favour that we would lynch a good guy, and possibly equally likely that we lynch a good role guy as a wolf or mad scientist, but we still 100% should lynch. A genuine lynch vote creates pockets of disscussion, agrument and disagreement that provides material to analyse and therefore is essential to winning the game. Part of the reason this post may come of as so agitatory is to try and see who agrees and disagrees, because at the moment day 1 has been a waste of time for the village. Currently all we will have tommorow is one dead villager whose vote and post record is useless because of a wasted day 1 and two players who will have minimal information that if it was valuable (i.e. a good guy was about to be lynched or a bad giy was found) would not necessarily be worth revealing in any case.

[Barkeep49]

Well we actually are with-in striking distance of a lynch with a no lynch defection, or two, plus some of yet to votes coming in and voting.

[tanglewood]

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

Because he wsa the vote leader before the no lynch strategem took sway and he is the only realistic hope of a lynch target at this late proceeding.

[Barkeep49]

Tangle: Except the two people who are dead will likely both be humans. The info we learn about them is minimal. While I don't propose that the seers reveal their information, the information will be in the game and some people will be able to make a more informed decision tomorrow than they can today. Plus if we DO go down the wrong path they have information to reveal to us before they are lynched.

[RendeR]

There is an element of chance in ANY game of logic and deduction, however a no-lynch vote gives us ZERO chance of ANYTHING, while a Lynch gives the only opportunity for good or bad to happen.

We must Lynch, period.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

However if we proceed and lynch today, then have a kill at night automatically we know the alignments of two players in the game. Thus we can go back and see who they voted for, what they posted on day 1 with complete information about their role. This is very valuable.

What kind of information will you get from me being lynched? I'm a plain villager. I have no role. What does it matter if I vote for someone? It'd be a complete guess and would mean absolutely nothing.

Seriously, what will you learn from my death?

[tanglewood]

Tangle: Except the two people who are dead will likely both be humans. The info we learn about them is minimal. While I don't propose that the seers reveal their information, the information will be in the game and some people will be able to make a more informed decision tomorrow than they can today. Plus if we DO go down the wrong path they have information to reveal to us before they are lynched.

No, there will be more information in the game that is useful to the village for tommorows lynch if we lynch someone today.

Pretty simply, if JE is lynched today and we assume he is a human (likely of course), we have learned:

1) Who JE voted for was a genuine attempt at helping the village
2) Everything JE posted was genuinly trying to help the village
3) We can see all those who voted to kill a villager
4) We can see all those who propogated no lynch, thus indirectly tried to prevent a villager being killed
5) We can study the groups formed and the logic used in the arguments over whether to lynch or not

This creates information that we simply would not have otherwise. This information would be avaliable to all players for tomorrow's lynch. If we don't lynch this info is not avaliable tomorrow. So there will be less information to decide on for the day 2 lynch.

Even assuming that say we started with only 18 players but two views already taken place, as the no lynch proponets want to, you have less info avaliable to the majority of the village to make an informed decision in that scenario. Only two players have any information at all, everyone else is at zero. If we lynch, then everyone has some information on which to make an informed vote tomorrow and two players still have what they would have had if there was no lynch too, plus the lynch info.

And tommorow, if the seer scans someone and they come back human (likely) and they take then take the lead in the lynch vote (unlikely but possible) then it is still not a smart play to reveal or strongly hint in order to save them, the seer is too valuable to risk being outed on day 2 over one player, so thta information is not as immediately useful as you seem to make out.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Even on day 1 you need a logical reason to vote for someone, particulary as you can change your vote as the day progresses.

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

Because he wsa the vote leader before the no lynch strategem took sway and he is the only realistic hope of a lynch target at this late proceeding.

So your logical reason for voting for me is that I'm the leading target to be lynched? That's logic? And what is your excuse going to be when I turn up good? That we had to lynch someone? That we just couldn't go one day without lynching someone?

[RendeR]

So your logical reason for voting for me is that I'm the leading target to be lynched? That's logic? And what is your excuse going to be when I turn up good? That we had to lynch someone? That we just couldn't go one day without lynching someone?


Yes.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Yes.

Well, I hope your logic serves you better on down the road. Seriously, you all are doing exactly what the wolves want. Kill off one of the good guys so they don't have to. Congrats.

[Alan T]

So its:

7 - NO LYNCH - path12 (111), Telle (115), Jonathan Ezarik (133), Barkee49 (166), Antmeister (194), DaddyTorgo (198), Gonzo (200)
6 - Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick (63), Lathum (79), cartman (96), Chief Rum, (222), RendeR (223), tanglewood
2 - tanglewood - LoneStarGirl (146), KWhit (171)
1 - path12 - Schmidty (128)
1 - Antmeister - JHandley (184)

Not voted - Alan T, Neon Chaos




Hmmm

[st.cronin]

less than 20 minutes to deadline

[Alan T]

Well, even if I did vote for JE, it would still be a tie which is no lynch, unless someone else moved to him too.

[tanglewood]

So your logical reason for voting for me is that I'm the leading target to be lynched? That's logic? And what is your excuse going to be when I turn up good? That we had to lynch someone? That we just couldn't go one day without lynching someone?

That you were the leading the votes with 3 at one point then a groundswell of no lynch votes came to save you is a perfectly valid reason to vote for you, much stronger than the reasoning used to catch many wolves in previous games.

The vote went from 3-1-1 to 7-3-2-1-1 that is a huge swing, especially considering it has been pretty much accepted in previous WW games that a lynch is a good thing for the village at all times. IN previous games where the rules has allowed the engineering of no lynch situations it has always been shot down by veteran players, which is why I am suprised at Barkeep who I specifically remember in a previous game arguing against a no lynch on day 1 I believe (I will check if it is important enough).

7 vote swings rarely occur on day 1 without some wolf involvement, put it that way. I am not saying that means you are a wolf trying to be saved, merely that the wolves probably don't want a lynch. I think that doing what the wolves don't want is generally a sound strategy.

But of course, because it is so obvious that no lynch will take place, wolves can hide their votes away anywhere as there is no pressure on the situation as stated earlier. In either case the suggestion and the large support received of the no lynch idea has in my opinion harmed the village. Is it a massive deal, no because it is only day 1, but still we should lynch because it helps us.

[Chief Rum]

No lynch is a bad decision, lynch someone, anyone.

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

Darnit Render you followed close on my vote against LSG in the last game, too. Whuddupwidat?

Actually, looking at the time stamp, I am guessing it was just an odd coincidence. Or at least I hope.

[Alan T]

Darnit Render you followed close on my vote against LSG in the last game, too. Whuddupwidat?

Actually, looking at the time stamp, I am guessing it was just an odd coincidence. Or at least I hope.


Maybe he has a WWcrush!

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I am not saying that means you are a wolf trying to be saved, merely that the wolves probably don't want a lynch. I think that doing what the wolves don't want is generally a sound strategy.

Why the hell would the wolves want to save me? A free kill is exactly what they want.

[path12]

If I was a wolf, JE would be one of the players I'd be most afraid of. There's no way I'm ever gonna vote him day 1.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

If I was a wolf, JE would be one of the players I'd be most afraid of. There's no way I'm ever gonna vote him day 1.

:)

[Chief Rum]

Maybe he has a WWcrush!

Finally, a legitamite reason to go UTR. And deep. :)

[tanglewood]

Why the hell would the wolves want to save me? A free kill is exactly what they want.

When there is no kill at the deadline, one villager is killed by the wolves and our seer has his one view which he can't tell anyone about, everyone will stand around and say "well now what?". We will be back to square 1 with one less villager to contribute to the discussion.

It is pretty simple really. Lynch people and you find out what they were. This allows you to objectively evaluate what they said and then you evaluate who supported them and who attacked them. This helps the village.

[Chief Rum]

Well, I hope your logic serves you better on down the road. Seriously, you all are doing exactly what the wolves want. Kill off one of the good guys so they don't have to. Congrats.

JE, I actually don't want you to be the lynch target. I would switch if we had another legit lynch target, as I think you would help us a lot in this game. But I am in the position of possibly choosing between lynching you or no lynch at all. And as you yourself have argued, we need a lynch, at least in this game.

[path12]

Wolves are not gonna make themselves known in the vote day 1.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

JE, I actually don't want you to be the lynch target. I would switch if we had another legit lynch target, as I think you would help us a lot in this game. But I am in the position of possibly choosing between lynching you or no lynch at all. And as you yourself have argued, we need a lynch, at least in this game.

What? When have I argued that we need a day one lynch?

[path12]

JE, I actually don't want you to be the lynch target. I would switch if we had another legit lynch target, as I think you would help us a lot in this game. .

But since we don't, I think we'd be foolish to lynch him.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Wolves are not gonna make themselves known in the vote day 1.

Thank you. If I'm lynched (which I fully believe will happen now), you all will learn absolutely nothing. The wolves just sit back and let you all pick off one of your own.