If you had one stud LB

[MrDNA]

Through good drafting, deep pockets in free agency or divine intervention, you get the linebacker of your dreams. He can defend the run, rush the passer with technique or strength, demolishes ball carriers and is a professor out there on the field. You can't even pass on this guy, all his bars are like 60-70-80% filled. Unfortunately, he can only play one LB spot. Assuming his development is about equal at all three - where would you want him? On the inside as the captain of your defense, on the outside guarding the TE, or crushing the QB as a free rusher?

[Icy]

MLB or SLB, not sure about which one, maybe MLB but also have him as backup at SLB to gain experience in that position too. I wouldn't put him as WLB as they are removed from a lot of plays (nickel formations).

[bmerryman]

I chose MLB just because he seems to have his nose in more plays.

[michael1123]

In the 4-3, MLB for sure.

I wouldn't put him as WLB as they are removed from a lot of plays (nickel formations).

For my young stud WLB's I like to put them in the SLB spot for nickel and dime formations, as long as they're good at guarding against the pass as well.

[stevew]

SLB in a 3-4, MLB in a 4-3. I tend to almost exclusively play 3-4, though.

[Subby]

I woud put him in at SLB in the base 4-3 defense - if he has really good coverage skills it seems like you would get the most use out of him if he lines up over the TE...plus OLB seem to have better luck rushing the QB. Finding a run stopping LB to put at ILB isn't all that hard - good cover LBs are much more rare.

[timmynausea]

I woud put him in at SLB in the base 4-3 defense - if he has really good coverage skills it seems like you would get the most use out of him if he lines up over the TE...plus OLB seem to have better luck rushing the QB. Finding a run stopping LB to put at ILB isn't all that hard - good cover LBs are much more rare.

Ditto.

[DougW]

I would put him at SLB.

More specifically, I would put him at SLB - have him play in New York and wear #56.

[Synovia]

I woud put him in at SLB in the base 4-3 defense - if he has really good coverage skills it seems like you would get the most use out of him if he lines up over the TE...plus OLB seem to have better luck rushing the QB. Finding a run stopping LB to put at ILB isn't all that hard - good cover LBs are much more rare.


You're making the assumption that, in this game, the SLB covers the TE, which, from what I can see, theres no evidense of. This isnt the NFL.

[Sgran]

You're making the assumption that, in this game, the SLB covers the TE, which, from what I can see, theres no evidense of. This isnt the NFL.

I've always had some doubts about this assumption as well. If you're in a zone, the tight end could end up anywhere. If you're in the nickel against a 2WR offense, then the nickel has him (i assume). In my high school defense (for what it's worth), we played a 4-3 and I covered the tight end as the strong safety in m2m, and the linebackers covered the halfbacks.

[Subby]

You're making the assumption that, in this game, the SLB covers the TE, which, from what I can see, theres no evidense of. This isnt the NFL.
Haha. Thanks for clearing that one up for me, Ace.

[yabanci]

You're making the assumption that, in this game, the SLB covers the TE, which, from what I can see, theres no evidense of. This isnt the NFL.

help file:

"The strong-side linebacker is often assigned to the tight end."

[Synovia]

help file:

"The strong-side linebacker is often assigned to the tight end."


With what I've seen in the help file so far, and observed in the game, I'm not sure i believe it.

[Ben E Lou]

With what I've seen in the help file so far, and observed in the game, I'm not sure i believe it.

It has been clear from early on that you know how this game works better than people who have been playing and testing it out for years. It's now clear that you have an even better grasp of the internal algorithms than the developer himself. Amazing.

[Synovia]

It has been clear from early on that you know how this game works better than people who have been playing and testing it out for years. It's now clear that you have an even better grasp of the internal algorithms than the developer himself. Amazing.

Sky, please explain to me how you KNOW that the SLB covers the TE. The fact that the help file says it doesnt mean anything. Its as much a part of the game as anything else.

Honestly, I'm of the oppinion at this point that all the coverage ratings are just added up, and thats rolled against.

With Jim's refusal to tell us basically ANYTHING about how the internals of this game works, why do you believe the help file is so different?

[Daimyo]

There was a thread back in the 2k4 days showing the percentage of passes thrown against for each defensive position The SLB had a much higher percentage than all the other LBs and was even on par with the RCB. To me, that is pretty solid evidence that the SLB often covers the TE.

[Daimyo]

DOLA, personally assuming all things are equal I put my all around stud at SLB in the 3-4. That way he's involved in all aspects of defense. If I have two all around studs I put them at SLB and one of the ILB slots.

[Ben E Lou]

Sky, please explain to me how you KNOW that the SLB covers the TE. The fact that the help file says it doesnt mean anything. Its as much a part of the game as anything else.

Honestly, I'm of the oppinion at this point that all the coverage ratings are just added up, and thats rolled against.

With Jim's refusal to tell us basically ANYTHING about how the internals of this game works, why do you believe the help file is so different?

There are the past tests that Daimyo mentioned, but not only that, there's just common sense. I've had more disagreements with Jim (counting public and private) than all but *maybe* one or two people on this board, but my goodness, over the last nine years, he's earned the benefit of the doubt on a direct quote from the help file. And even if you ignore the last nine years, and think the guy has zero integrity whatsoever and would put a bald-faced lie in his documentation, it would be an INCREDIBLY STUPID business decision to do so. Sure, it's possible that there's a bug there, but I'm confident that the algorithms (even if global) are intended to factor the SLB's ratings against the TE's ratings in most cases.

[Synovia]

There was a thread back in the 2k4 days showing the percentage of passes thrown against for each defensive position The SLB had a much higher percentage than all the other LBs and was even on par with the RCB. To me, that is pretty solid evidence that the SLB often covers the TE.


No, thats pretty solid evidense that the SLB is in coverage quite a bit. Your saying it is against the TE is pure assumption.

Sky, if Jim has been so forthcoming with you, how are coverage ratings utilized in each one of the coverage schemes?

And even if you ignore the last nine years, and think the guy has zero integrity whatsoever and would put a bald-faced lie in his documentation, it would be an INCREDIBLY STUPID business decision to do so.

Why? Theres no way to verify or refute the help file. Its not an issue of integrity, its an issue of creating a "story" for the game. Telling players who covers who makes the game more in-depth and detailed, even if in the inner workings dont actually do that.

[Ben E Lou]

Why? Theres no way to verify or refute the help file. Its not an issue of integrity, its an issue of creating a "story" for the game. Telling players who covers who makes the game more in-depth and detailed, even if in the inner workings dont actually do that.

Ah, now I understand. You're arguing that the help file is probably a lie. I can't *prove* that it's not a lie, so you win. Got it.

[Subby]

The help file and research coupled together suggest that the TE is covered by the SLB.

Case closed.

[Warhammer]

I am going to go out on a limb on this, but in a cover 1 situation, I think it is safe to assume that the SS will be locked up on the TE. In a cover 2, the SLB will be locked up on the LB.

3 Deep zone and 4 Deep zone I have no clue how that is handled in FOF 2k7. However, I think there is no reason to believe the SLB is not getting locked up on the TE outside of the 3 Deep and 4 Deep zones.

[Warhammer]

While we're talking about this, it is interesting to me that in real football, I tend to think of the FS as being the stronger coverage safety, yet in FOF, I would want the SS to be the better coverage guy.

[Synovia]

The help file and research coupled together suggest that the TE is covered by the SLB.

Case closed.


Okay, we've pretty much established at this point that the game does this:

1. Determines outcome of play.
2. Assigns stats

And yet you still claim that specific players are covering other specific players? That doesnt make any sense. If it has already been determined whether or not the play is a success before the receiver has been decided, how can you say that one player "covers" another one?

[st.cronin]

Okay, we've pretty much established at this point that the game does this:

1. Determines outcome of play.
2. Assigns stats

And yet you still claim that specific players are covering other specific players? That doesnt make any sense. If it has already been determined whether or not the play is a success before the receiver has been decided, how can you say that one player "covers" another one?

I guess what I don't understand about your p.o.v. is, how does the outcome of the play get determined?

[Warhammer]

Okay, we've pretty much established at this point that the game does this:

1. Determines outcome of play.
2. Assigns stats

And yet you still claim that specific players are covering other specific players? That doesnt make any sense. If it has already been determined whether or not the play is a success before the receiver has been decided, how can you say that one player "covers" another one?

I think the only place this has been determined was in the running game. Even there, some details are missing, but we do know the general logic of the system. However, the only thing that we know gets stats assigned once the outcome of the play is determined is the lineblocking stats.

In the passing game, it is a completely different animal because receivers have to be determined prior to the outcome of the play to determine whether the ball is dropped, etc. Additionally, interception chances must be determined by particular player assignments.

[Warhammer]

I guess what I don't understand about your p.o.v. is, how does the outcome of the play get determined?

Make die roll, add up offensive and defensive ratings, consult chart, and then assign stats. The only areas where I see this working is in determining who got the tackle and assist on defense, and who got the credit for the sack, KRO, and KRB on the line.

[Synovia]

In the passing game, it is a completely different animal because receivers have to be determined prior to the outcome of the play to determine whether the ball is dropped, etc. Additionally, interception chances must be determined by particular player assignments.
Again, thats an assumption. We dont KNOW that.

I really doubt that the passing game would be coded in a manner completely different from the running game.


I would assume that drops are the last thing rolled on, but the rest of the stuff doesnt NEED to be the way you're proposing. I agree that it would make sence, but it doesnt have to work that way.


It is completely possible that the outcome is determined before the player the pass is targeted at is picked. IE, the roll comes up "interception" and then it basically says, you've got 6 players with Interceptions ratings of 90,60,50,40,30,30. Who made the pick would be determined by a roll, with 30% chance for player A, 20% for B, 16.67 for C, 13.33 for D, and 10% for E and F. Cornerbacks/safties may be weighted differently than LBs, etc...

[Warhammer]

Again, thats an assumption. We dont KNOW that.

I really doubt that the passing game would be coded in a manner completely different from the running game.


I would assume that drops are the last thing rolled on, but the rest of the stuff doesnt NEED to be the way you're proposing. I agree that it would make sence, but it doesnt have to work that way.


It is completely possible that the outcome is determined before the player the pass is targeted at is picked. IE, the roll comes up "interception" and then it basically says, you've got 6 players with Interceptions ratings of 90,60,50,40,30,30. Who made the pick would be determined by a roll, with 30% chance for player A, 20% for B, 16.67 for C, 13.33 for D, and 10% for E and F. Cornerbacks/safties may be weighted differently than LBs, etc...

You're making the assumption that everything is done the way lineblocking is. The way the lineblocking system is set up actually does make a lot of sense.

What you are leaving out is that the RB in the running game is treated differently. It is his skills that determine the outcome of the play in TANDEM with the skills of the OLs run blocking and the defenses run defense.

In the passing game, you have a QB and WR who have to be taken into account. My guess for how it would work is that you have a die roll for the QB modified by defensive line pressure (if they "beat" the OL), sense rush rating, probably scramble rating (to figure out if the QB takes off and runs), etc. Once that is figured out, it is plugged into a table that determines whether the ball was on target, off target, etc. If off target, the WR can adjust to the ball, if not, it is incomplete. If incomplete, it is chalked up to a bad throw or a hurry (hurry if the DL beats the OL). If it is on target, the DB gets a chance to defend the pass. If successful, the pass is incomplete and he is awarded a pass defense. Otherwise, depending on the roll by the DB, the WR may get a bonus from the DB blowing coverage, or has his standard chance to make a catch. If he fails this, he is awarded a drop. Otherwise he makes the catch, and then rolls for YAC. At this point, passer accuracy, WRs getting downfield, and DB run defense is checked to see how much YAC is gained.

Now, you're going to sit there and say, "We don't know this." You're right, we don't but it does take into account all the different player ratings into account, which the lineblocking algorithm does as well.

[Synovia]

Right, If I was designing the system, thats how I'd do it. But theres no evidence that its being done that way.



What you are leaving out is that the RB in the running game is treated differently. It is his skills that determine the outcome of the play in TANDEM with the skills of the OLs run blocking and the defenses run defense.

I never said it wasnt that way. The point is, with running, its very clear that the outcome is determined before the stats are assigned. I really doubt that he'd write the running this way, and then write a completely seperate engine to handle the passing game. If he was going to write an engine with that capability, it would be extremely easy to have it handle 1-on-1 matchups with lineman.

My guess is that rather than being an amalgam of RB/OL, its an amalgam of QB/WRs with some modifier for how the OL did. I think dropped passes is essentially the same check being used for when a DE beats a OL and the quarterback avoids the sack. IE, the check is being made at the same time, but instead of checking WR Avoid drops, the QB's Sense Rush rating is used.

[Daimyo]

No, thats pretty solid evidense that the SLB is in coverage quite a bit. Your saying it is against the TE is pure assumption.
At that point does it really matter? If the SLB is in coverage quite a bit than you want a SLB with good coverage skills. If the SLB covers the TE quite a bit you still want a SLB with good coverage skills. Either way you want your SLB to have good coverage skills.

However, I'll concede that its entirely possible (and maybe even likely give what little we know) that all LB are treated equally on coverage and the SLB just gets more stats assigned after the play result is calculated. We'll never really know as long as Jim maintains his veil of silence.

[Synovia]

At that point does it really matter? If the SLB is in coverage quite a bit than you want a SLB with good coverage skills. If the SLB covers the TE quite a bit you still want a SLB with good coverage skills. Either way you want your SLB to have good coverage skills.

Right. But even though the SLB gets assigned a lot of stats, we dont know if hes being weighted heavier in success/fail calcuations. IE, getting a better coverage MLB may increase the success of pass defence as a whole, while the SLB still gets a larger percentage of the stats.

IE, what if theyre ratings are being considered equally, but stats aren't being assigned equally?


Actually, theres a pretty easy way(although theres a ton of other variables that will influence it) to test that. 2 Crappy LB, one great. Sim about 100 seasons each with the great LB at each of the positions...check overall pass defense stats/rates, as well as individual stats. See how much difference it makes when you move the stud. You'd have to avoid the nickle and dime though, as they pull a lb.

[jkat]

Don't confuse issues with a particular stat, Key Run Blocks, with whether the underlying system works. I haven't seen anything supporting that there are not run blocks being performed or weighted into the formulas in a logical manner. Nor have I seen Pancakes, another run blocking stat, to be correlated to Key Run Blocks.


Key Run Blocks is a second level statistic, involving not just a specific occurrence but also the result of the play. Any issues are likely to stem in the generation of the statistic, not from the underlying engine whose result that statistic is being generated from.

[Warhammer]

A good way to look at KRBs here is analgous to errors in baseball. If a 3rd baseman boots a ball, but still throws the runner out, it is a put out. If he boots the ball, but the the throw is late, it is typically considered an error.

The stat generated is completely dependent upon the outcome of the play, not the play of the player (although had he not booted the ball, the runner been a step faster or slower, etc.).

[Synovia]

The stat generated is completely dependent upon the outcome of the play, not the play of the player (although had he not booted the ball, the runner been a step faster or slower, etc.).


Right, the question is, how deep does the rabbit hole go? How many of these stats are generated as a result of the play, instead of causing the result of the play.

Is a cornerback rolling an interception, or is an interception being rolled as a result of the coverage and player ratings, and the cornerback being picked to "recieve the interception"?

[jkat]

I'm fairly certain the stats don't pertain to what the engine does but are rather the result of it.

The problem that arises, in 07, isn't that the engine shares the same defects but rather that the statistics are supposed to be a major factor in player evaluation. Acquiring a player because he has certain statistics does not work if those statistics don't have any meaning, or an incongruous meaning.

Determining the accuracy of a player's scouted ratings, and hidden ratings, are tied into statistical performance. Whether you feel there is career-long ratings masking in players where there is a consistent overperformance/underperformance or feel there is a sort of performance constant that each player has (somewhere in the equations the player's constant would come into play, wherein a significantly overperforming player might be .8-1 and a significantly underperforming player might be .3-.5) the stats are what we have to compensate for the increased scout error in 07.

[jkat]

Is a cornerback rolling an interception, or is an interception being rolled as a result of the coverage and player ratings, and the cornerback being picked to "recieve the interception"?

If each "note" generated in logs/solevision is representative of additional formulae, interceptions would be attributable to just the cornerback (in regards to defenders, as the QB, and to a lesser extent the WR, would clearly be expected to have an effect).

[Synovia]

If each "note" generated in logs/solevision is representative of additional formulae, interceptions would be attributable to just the cornerback (in regards to defenders, as the QB, and to a lesser extent the WR, would clearly be expected to have an effect).
Except those interceptions where a WR is never even mentioned, or the ball flutters and is picked, et.

[yabanci]

Okay, we've pretty much established at this point that the game does this:

1. Determines outcome of play.
2. Assigns stats

And yet you still claim that specific players are covering other specific players? That doesnt make any sense. If it has already been determined whether or not the play is a success before the receiver has been decided, how can you say that one player "covers" another one?

Who is this "we" of whom you speak and exactly where did we supposedly establish these claims you are making? Please provide links to the thread(s).

[Synovia]

Who is this "we" of whom you speak and exactly where did we supposedly establish these claims you are making? Please provide links to the thread(s).

Theres probably 2 dozen of them. I thought this was common knowledge.


Its definitely the way all the offensive and defensive line stats are determined

[yabanci]

Theres probably 2 dozen of them. I thought this was common knowledge.


Its definitely the way all the offensive and defensive line stats are determined

If you are going to claim that your weird theories and speculation have been established as true, back it up. Provide the authority on which you claim things are "established" and "definite." You sound seriously misinformed to me.

[Synovia]

well, heres one for starters, I can grab you more if you want

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=59141


The whole "defensive line stats/offensive line stats" being doled out after they result of the play is determined isnt MY Weird Theory... its a theory, from what I've seen, agreed upon by anyone whos run a significant amount of seasons in this game.


Also, I'm not saying that my theory is how it works, I'm saying its absolutely absurd that you guys assume that you know whats happening.

[yabanci]

well, heres one for starters, I can grab you more if you want

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=59141

The whole "defensive line stats/offensive line stats" being doled out after they result of the play is determined isnt MY Weird Theory... its a theory, from what I've seen, agreed upon by anyone whos run a significant amount of seasons in this game.

Also, I'm not saying that my theory is how it works, I'm saying its absolutely absurd that you guys assume that you know whats happening.

yes, I'm aware of that thread and it's nothing but speculation that may or may not be correct.

We certainly have a different perspective. To me, statements made by the developer in the official help file are the most reliable, lacking as they are. Guesswork by anonymous people on an internet message board ranks among the least.

You seem to want clarification on the formulas used in the simulation, something you are never going to get and likely wouldn't believe anyway.

[Richard Weed]

Yeah, I'd put that LB at SLB. More INTs, sacks, and tackles.

Edit--He'd be a gamechanger.

[Synovia]

yes, I'm aware of that thread and it's nothing but speculation that may or may not be correct.


Please explain to me how a LT is responsible for a sack by the OLB on the other side.

[st.cronin]

Please explain to me how a LT is responsible for a sack by the OLB on the other side.

Defensive end blows by the left tackle. Quarterback poops his pants and runs the other way. Outside linebacker steps up and sacks him.

[Synovia]

Defensive end blows by the left tackle. Quarterback poops his pants and runs the other way. Outside linebacker steps up and sacks him.

That would make sense....


unless you actually watched the Solevision.

[bmerryman]

yes, I'm aware of that thread and it's nothing but speculation that may or may not be correct.

We certainly have a different perspective. To me, statements made by the developer in the official help file are the most reliable, lacking as they are. Guesswork by anonymous people on an internet message board ranks among the least.



Strongly agree with this statement. Inferences based on opinions (and limited testing) found in a thread are fine as long as we all recognize that there's a very large margin for error.

[Synovia]

Strongly agree with this statement. Inferences based on opinions (and limited testing) found in a thread are fine as long as we all recognize that there's a very large margin for error.

I have no problem with that. I just feel the "help file" should be viewed the same way.

[ace1914]

Right, the question is, how deep does the rabbit hole go? How many of these stats are generated as a result of the play, instead of causing the result of the play.

Is a cornerback rolling an interception, or is an interception being rolled as a result of the coverage and player ratings, and the cornerback being picked to "recieve the interception"?

But aren't most plays the result of good playcalling and execution from the team as a whole? A cumulative effect from the offense/defense as a whole would seem to make more sense mathematically.