View Full Version : ootp5 ratings accuracy?
I just wanted to see if anyone is experiencing what I have been or if I'm just incredibly unlucky...
The first season, everything went according to what I expected. The good players on my team played well, the bad ones didn't. My team was a middle of the pack team in terms of talent and we finished in the middle of the pack. Good enuff.
The second season, I added 2 excellent pitchers since that was my weakness (a 5star and 4.5 star SP). Neither played well, and my 5 star RF who is still in his prime (29 yrs old) didn't come close to his previous numbers the season before. I finished dead last in the league. Ok, I assume this was just bad luck...
I'm now about 1/4 of the way through my 3rd season. I've added another 4 star SP and a couple solid players at other positions. Looking through the league, I think I have one of the better teams if not the best based on talent. My 5 star pitcher has an ERA over 9 and has yet to win a game, My other 2 stud pitchers both have ERA's over 7. My stud RF is now hitting .238 and has 4 HR's (he has a 12 in power hitting). None of my quality players are playing decently. My team is again dead last in the league.
None of my stars have had serious injuries, my scout is Legendary in pitching and excellent in hitting. My hitting coach and pitching coach are both excellent. I've not made any adjustments to team strategy.
Am I just completely missing something? I don't know what to think to be honest. The first season was excellent. Everything made sense during that season. Since then nothing has made sense. I don't know if it's something I haven't done, horribly bad luck or just the game engine?
Ksyrup
03-05-2003, 07:01 AM
A. What kind of scout do you have?
B. The game has been coded to provide for far greater variance in performance. That, and I think the talent dropoff issues can start as early as late 20's.
Originally posted by Bee
my scout is Legendary in pitching and excellent in hitting. My hitting coach and pitching coach are both excellent.
B. Wouldn't a drop off be reflected in the player's ratings? I don't mind some variance in performance, but what I've seen borders on randomly generated statistics.
Ksyrup
03-05-2003, 07:20 AM
I kept reading your post looking for the scout info, but couldn't find it. I guess that's not the issue.
The talent drop off would register in the ratings, but the variable performace would not. I understand that the game is supposed to yield fewer guaranteed studs from ages 25-38 then in previous versions. You might have gotten "lucky" and picked up a few pseudo-stars.
Ksyrup
03-05-2003, 07:22 AM
Dola. I kinda like that, since it will make you think twice about extending a guy's contract. In OOTP4, I rarely re-considered re-upping a guy for 5 or 6 years if he had produced in the past. Wit hthe talent drop off combined with variable performance, that's not an automatic decision anymore. Or, it will lead to shorter contracts and more opportunity to lose good players, making the game more difficult (I hope).
I guess I need to experiment more with the game and see if this continues with these players and see if it happens with other players over the next few seasons. It could be really bad luck with the variable performance or "pseudo-stars" as you mentioned. I'm hoping it's just a statistical anomaly and not something I'll be seeing again. :(
Originally posted by Ksyrup
Dola. I kinda like that, since it will make you think twice about extending a guy's contract. In OOTP4, I rarely re-considered re-upping a guy for 5 or 6 years if he had produced in the past. Wit hthe talent drop off combined with variable performance, that's not an automatic decision anymore. Or, it will lead to shorter contracts and more opportunity to lose good players, making the game more difficult (I hope).
But the problem I see is you don't have anything to make informed decisions. Like I mentioned, the first season the players performed according to their ratings (leading you to believe they were real stars). The next season I only had one quality player who performed to their ratings (a 4 star 3B). At this point in my third season, no one (including the 3B) is performing to their ratings. Does that mean they are all "overrated" or are they "underperforming"? It doesn't seem I can trust the scouts ratings (despite being the best scout in the league) and it doesn't seem I can put much faith in the stats since they have varied greatly over the last two seasons. If there are a number of "pseudo-stars" or there is this great a variance in performance, roster building becomes more a case of random luck than strategy or salary management.
Of course, don't get me wrong...I'm not ready to say my experience is anything more than just a statistical hiccup in my league. That's one of the reasons I posted, to see if others are seeing similar things and writing it off to bad luck (or if I was missing some key element in the game).
Ksyrup
03-05-2003, 07:42 AM
If you think about it, there are plenty of guys in real life that start off promising and then tank for several years before finally fading away, or for some reason explode (either good or bad) when they hit their 30's, or just have an up and down career or an off-year every now and then. To the extent the game incorporates those types of players, I'm all for it, even if I'm on the bad side of a couple of contracts. I thought that the ability to bank on certain guys in OOTP4 was part of what made the game so easy.
Originally posted by Ksyrup
If you think about it, there are plenty of guys in real life that start off promising and then tank for several years before finally fading away, or for some reason explode (either good or bad) when they hit their 30's, or just have an up and down career or an off-year every now and then. To the extent the game incorporates those types of players, I'm all for it, even if I'm on the bad side of a couple of contracts. I thought that the ability to bank on certain guys in OOTP4 was part of what made the game so easy.
I don't mind seeing that either (I actually like that idea), but I'd like to see that reflected in my scout's ratings if he is highly skilled at least to some extent.
My RF is still a 12 in power hitting (or HR's or whatever the rating is), he hit .330 with 54 HRs the first season. This year (still rated a 12) he's on pace to hit .238 and 16 HRs. His contact rating is the same as well. Heck, that's not even the worse case. My 5 star pitcher was a 20 game winner in season 1 with an ERA under 3. This season he's 0-6 with an ERA over 9. His scouted ratings haven't changed and he's either 28 or 29 years old.
I know players performances hits peaks and valleys, but everyone at the same time and so dramatically?
I don't follow baseball that closely (not a big baseball fan), but for the most part the players I'm familiar with are generally much more consistent than that. I don't know if I could name a player who had such a dramatic dropoff that wasn't due to injury. Even if I could, I doubt scouts would still rate them as highly as they did during their productive years.
Ksyrup
03-05-2003, 08:13 AM
It could be that the engine needs some tweaking. I know from looking at the best players in the leagues for which I've simmed 30-40 years, that they had pretty consistent careers, so I don't think this happens to every player.
I just wanted to say again, I don't know if this is not just a strange result I've gotten or what. I haven't played enough to make any conclusions and I'm far from ready to write the game off as "too random". I was just posting this to put the info out there and see if there were anyone with similar results or perhaps if I were doing something wrong (I macro manage, so I thought I might have missed something that needed to be micro managed).
While I appreciate there's going to be variance in performance, my results seemed extreme and wide spread enough that I wanted to post about them.
Edit: my dola was blocked ;)
That's good to hear about more consistency than what I've experienced over a 30-40 year sim.
Just saw this on the OOTP boards
So, I've started three new games in manager mode... one in Boston, one in Colorado, and one in Detroit.
And with the extra pressure from the owner to win NOW, I've concentrated on making the team better in that first season, and adding prospects whenever I can.
So what happens?
In all three games, any player past 30 seems to take a nose-dive to loserville by the end of June, and my team's record misses the owner's expectations by about .100. My 'prospects' do nothing but drop in talent, and spend more time getting demoted than promoted. There doesn't seem to be any real correlation between my scout's ratings and a player's performance, even when I have an outstanding/outstanding scout as I do in Detroit.
I've got a shortstop with solid 5/5/5/5 ratings, who's posted a .475 OPS through June. My catcher, who has 2/3/2/4 ratings, has an OPS of .788, and the kid I briefly brought up to replace him (before I realized the scrub was actually doing pretty well), who has 3/4/3/5 ratings, hit .112 with a .345 OPS.
To top it all off, I can't seem to get a date.
Either I've lost about half of my smarts since OOTP4, I'm having the worst luck in the entire world.
Or something.
-Spielman
At least I'm not completely alone... ;)
Tarkus
03-05-2003, 08:36 AM
From what I've played so far I'd have to agree to some extent. It seems that talent ratings not only drop, but they can drop drastically in just a year. If I remember correctly I've had four-star players in their early 30s drop to one and half stars in one year. I really think they need to tweak this a little. To me, in general, someones ability just doesn't drop this much in one year. To drop a half star or a whole star in a year would make sense; but not dropping two and a half stars.
Tarkus
Ksyrup
03-05-2003, 08:46 AM
This is why I'm waiting for the patch today before I start a specific career. I've just been doing 25+ year sims up until now.
Originally posted by Tarkus
From what I've played so far I'd have to agree to some extent. It seems that talent ratings not only drop, but they can drop drastically in just a year. If I remember correctly I've had four-start players in their early 30s drop to one and half stars in one year. I really think they need to tweak this a little. To me, in general, someones ability just doesn't drop this much in one year. To drop a half star or a whole star in a year would make sense; but not dropping two and a half stars.
Tarkus
I don't even mind that too much. It might need tweaked, but I understand players skills can diminish suddenly.
What I don't get is players who's performance drops drastically without a change in skill.
Tarkus
03-05-2003, 09:32 AM
Well, it will be interesting to see if your guys bounce back. Players can have off years, although not usually to the extent you mentioned. I've only played a few years so far so I'll have to see how things develop. This is really my learn the game campaign and I'll keep you posted on what I see.
Also, on a totally different note, is there a way to get lineups that somewhat resemble current rosters, or at least the end of last year? When I started with an historical 2002 season I ended up with Karim Garcia on the Yankees, and no Weaver or Mondesi. Actually Garcia has very good ratings so that wasn't so bad :D , but seriously is there a way to start a season with REAL names and current rosters? Thanks.
henry296
03-05-2003, 09:34 AM
Tarkus,
A guy by the name of GEForce has a beta build of current rosters. There is a nice long thread over on the .400 studios board which should tell you where to download them.
Todd
Tarkus
03-05-2003, 09:53 AM
Thanks henry296, I'll check it out. :)
Tarkus
Ksyrup
03-05-2003, 11:06 AM
From the new patch readme:
- Fine-tuned injury frequency
- Fine-tuned player development, talent hits for established players in their prime is now less likely
Tarkus
03-05-2003, 11:35 AM
Originally posted by Ksyrup
From the new patch readme:
- Fine-tuned injury frequency
- Fine-tuned player development, talent hits for established players in their prime is now less likely
That's good. I had 3 guys out for the year in my first year, and numerous other injuries so that's welcome. I'm assuming they toned them down. Silly me if they increased them.
Tarkus
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