sox soon to sign Santana?

[Galaril]

This is being reported that the Sox and Twins are ready to announce a deal for Santana in exchange for Lester, Masterson, Crisp. If this goes through just give next years trophy to the Sox now.

[Sublime 2]

Don't have to give up Bucholz or Ellsbury....Wow!

[albionmoonlight]

If this is true, I am really suprised that the Yankees did not overpay for him. Strange to see the Yankees thinking long term rather than just picking up every big name guy who comes up in trade talks.

[molson]

It's bizarre to me how light the offers have been.

"Prospects" have really increased in trade value over the last 10 years. The Yankees and Red Sox used to think nothing of throwing in tons of prospects for middle relievers.

[Galaril]

Don't have to give up Bucholz or Ellsbury....Wow!

Yeah sounds like they may have to give Hansen instead of Mastersen no prob.

[CleBrownsfan]

I still think the Yankees are going to give the Twins "an offer they can't refuse"... we'll see

[molson]

More specifically, Boston.com reports that the Red Sox have exchanged "medical information" on Santana and Lester.

[Galaril]

I still think the Yankees are going to give the Twins "an offer they can't refuse"... we'll see

It is being reported the Yankees negoitiations ave broken off over their reluctnace to give up Hughes AND Kenneddy. They are now looking at Dan Harren. Good luck with that;)

[Anthony]

if the Yankees go back and send in another offer after their self-imposed trade deadline has passed, Hank Steinbrenner will have thrown away all credibility. he's already on shaky ground with me after saying "if Arod opts out - we're not going to make an offer". yeah right. you can only make so many hollow promises.

[highfiveoh]

That proposal in the first post is missing Lowrie.

[LloydLungs]

It is being reported the Yankees negoitiations ave broken off over their reluctnace to give up Hughes AND Kenneddy. They are now looking at Dan Harren. Good luck with that;)

I don't understand why the Twins are demanding both Hughes and Kennedy from the Yankees when they're willing to accept so little from the Red Sox. This deal is practically giving Santana away. I hope this report is wrong.

[SirFozzie]

From MLBTradeRumors.com with their link

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 8:34am: LENIII is hearing the four players are Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson - same as Gordon Edes said.

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=285

[highfiveoh]

I still think there is a possibility that the Sox will have to part with both Lester and Ellsbury.

[DaddyTorgo]

that's about the only deal i'd be happy with. if they can get santana and keep ellsbury+bucholz i'd be OKAY with it. still not thrilled, as i stated in the offseason thread i'd rather see them think proactively and down the road towards replacing manny+mike lowell with the cash instead of locking up a 29 y/o starting pitcher for 6 years at huge cash (irregardless of whether he's the best in the game or not, what's the win-shares provided by him versus the win shares provided by manny+lowell say...in his best year versus their years last year)

[Izulde]

Damn it, specify what color!

I was thinking this was the White Sox for a minute and was giddy.

[Galaril]

that's about the only deal i'd be happy with. if they can get santana and keep ellsbury+bucholz i'd be OKAY with it. still not thrilled, as i stated in the offseason thread i'd rather see them think proactively and down the road towards replacing manny+mike lowell with the cash instead of locking up a 29 y/o starting pitcher for 6 years at huge cash (irregardless of whether he's the best in the game or not, what's the win-shares provided by him versus the win shares provided by manny+lowell say...in his best year versus their years last year)

Yeah, same here. I am ot worried about Lowell for the next three years and if they kept Chadd Spann out of the triple a or Jed Lowrie they will be all set a t infield. But the two areas I am concerned with is finding a replacement for Manny after 08? I am thinking Holiday out of Colorado in trade after 08 forexample and finding catching prospect to take over for Varitek in acouple of years. Statring pitching is set for awhile even without Santana-Beckett,Dice-K,Buckholtz, Lester and a solid number 2 guy. If they give up Ellsbury they fucking stupid.

[mckerney]

This had better not happen.

[molson]

I think Red Sox fans are over-thinking this thing.

What is Jacob Ellsbury's upside, really? When you have a chance at an elite pitcher you go after him.

[rkmsuf]

I think Red Sox fans are over-thinking this thing.

What is Jacob Ellsbury's upside, really? When you have a chance at an elite pitcher you go after him.



they should erect statues of theo around fenway if he gets this done. even including ellsbury.

[molson]

they should erect statues of theo around fenway if he gets this done. even including ellsbury.

Yup.

Theo has done an incredible job building up a farm system - that's something the Sox have never had in my lifetime. It's time to cash in.

[SirFozzie]

One of the two sports talk radio stations in Boston (the smaller one, 1510 The Zone), is reporting that a deal has been struck, and that the Sox have been given 72 hours to negotiate a contract extension with Santana.

I'm gonna put a huge grain of salt on this (it's not on the major Boston station, WEEI, yet, nor ESPN.com).. but it's interesting.

[Anthony]

there is no scenario in which Ellsbury should hold up a deal to get a pitcher, who, still under 30 years old, has won a Cy Young and is a perennial Cy Young candidate. right now Ellsbury (and i'll admit i haven't watched him play) is just a kid with a lot of hyped-up upside. Santana is Santana, who can be as dominant, if not more dominant, than Beckett. to have Santana, who's bad season by his standard was in large part due to poor run support, and Beckett in the same rotation is a guaranteed World Series championship. they'd basically be a younger version of Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling of the Dbacks championship winning rotation.

[molson]

One of the two sports talk radio stations in Boston (the smaller one, 1510 The Zone), is reporting that a deal has been struck, and that the Sox have been given 72 hours to negotiate a contract extension with Santana.



I thought 1510 was just running national syndication shows now? Who's their "baseball insider" that would get such a scoop over say, Peter Gammons?

[SirFozzie]

they still have andelman, I think.. they still have one or two local shows

[EagleFan]

That should make for some very entertaining National Anthems in Fenway, maybe he'll do the 7th inning stretch too?

[rkmsuf]

they still have andelman, I think.. they still have one or two local shows

I think andelmen has been long gone from there for a while. I think they have a local guy do mornings. Not sure of the afternoon. Maybe Felger. He has a show somewhere.

[Alan T]

they still have andelman, I think.. they still have one or two local shows


Is Andelman that senile old guy who used to be on WEEI but was completely unlistenable due to never being impartial about anything? (Not that anyone on WEEI ever was unbiased though). I guess I didn't even know 1510 existed, is it available in central mass, or the signal boston only? These days I just flip between WEEI and 890 (ESPN Radio), depending on who is on. Mornings and mid-day I usually listen to ESPN, but afternoons I flip to WEEI because at least the big show is entertaining :)

[Alan T]

I think andelmen has been long gone from there for a while. I think they have a local guy do mornings. Not sure of the afternoon. Maybe Felger. He has a show somewhere.


Felger is on ESPN Radio 890 in the afternoons.. and is still as annoying as always.

[LloydLungs]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=285

I am amused by all the Red Sox fans descending on this blog to extoll the virtues of Coco Crisp to apoplectic Twins fans.

[JPhillips]

Why do the Twins want to trade Santana now? Isn't he likely to have more value to whoever is in second in the AL East come July?

[rkmsuf]

Why do the Twins want to trade Santana now? Isn't he likely to have more value to whoever is in second in the AL East come July?

he has a no trade and said f-you to the twins trading him during the season.

at least I think that's the case

[JPhillips]

I'd then be tempted to ride it out and get the two draft picks. The prospects they'll get from the Red Sox have so little value IMO that I'd go the route of the Nats and take my chances with the draft picks.

[Logan]

he has a no trade and said f-you to the twins trading him during the season.

at least I think that's the case

He denied ever saying that and was apparently "furious" about it. Just saying...

Honestly, if this is all Minnesota is getting, I'll go back to my original stance that they should be contracted. Let's ignore the fact that the owner is a billionaire and could pay him if he really wanted to...you don't trade your stud pitcher, who's 29 years old and will be signed to a long-term deal, to a powerhouse team in your own league for anything short of a king's ransom that will significantly even the playing field.

[Lathum]

he has a no trade and said f-you to the twins trading him during the season.

at least I think that's the case

exacttly. He doesn't want to throw 1 pitch without his new contract.

[SirFozzie]

He denied ever saying that and was apparently "furious" about it. Just saying...

Honestly, if this is all Minnesota is getting, I'll go back to my original stance that they should be contracted. Let's ignore the fact that the owner is a billionaire and could pay him if he really wanted to...you don't trade your stud pitcher, who's 29 years old and will be signed to a long-term deal, to a powerhouse team in your own league for anything short of a king's ransom that will significantly even the playing field.

Except they have two options. 1 - Get a first round draft pick when Santana leaves next year, and he WILL leave, it's been made clear. Risk having even that compensation being taken away (there are folks who want to get rid of picks for leaving Free Agents, since the Yanks and BoSox have been playing that game for a while now). 2- Get what you can, while you can. Especially if you think there's good reason that your pitcher WON'T allow you to trade him during the year.

[Atocep]

Except they have two options. 1 - Get a first round draft pick when Santana leaves next year, and he WILL leave, it's been made clear. Risk having even that compensation being taken away (there are folks who want to get rid of picks for leaving Free Agents, since the Yanks and BoSox have been playing that game for a while now). 2- Get what you can, while you can. Especially if you think there's good reason that your pitcher WON'T allow you to trade him during the year.

They would get 2 first round picks if they lost him to free agency (the Sox pick assuming it falls in the bottom half of the first round and a sandwich pick at the end of the round) and any changes to compensation would have to wait until the next collective bargaining agreement.

[Galaril]

Yup.

Theo has done an incredible job building up a farm system - that's something the Sox have never had in my lifetime. It's time to cash in.

I think the Sox have always been known for a solid farm system. I know in the 70s they had a super farm system.

[JPhillips]

No way they get rid of draft pick compensation this year. And it's a first rounder(or second, but realistically those bottom feeders won't get Santana) and a sandwich pick.

There's a grea post here, http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/20/letting-ichiro-leave-for-nothing/ ,that shows the odds are probably better that the draft picks will outplay the prospects. Admittedly this is a mid-season trade study, but I'd argue the results apply here.

[DaddyTorgo]

out of the latest ESPN article

"If the Red Sox get Santana," said an executive of one NL team that's grateful to be in the other league, "they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe."

[DaddyTorgo]

I think Red Sox fans are over-thinking this thing.

What is Jacob Ellsbury's upside, really? When you have a chance at an elite pitcher you go after him.

an elite pitcher who wants a $150 million dollar 6 year contract extension?

idk...that's pretty rich for my blood (and given it's just John Henry's money, and he may have given Theo the okay and already committed in his mind to paying the luxury tax at some point in the future - when he has to replace Manny and Lowell), but seems to me that giving up Lester AND Ellsbury AND Lowrie would be...seriously depleting the farm. Those are you two best positional prospects (one of whom performed on the sport's biggest stage and hit very well (small sample size) late in the season), and a young lefty with great stuff who's already won the clinching game of the WS.

of all those players tbh, lester is the one i'm least attached to. love the kid's potential, but given the whole cancer-thing that could flare back up at any point i'm willing to concede that. I don't want to see Lowrie AND Ellsbury go. I think you need to keep at least one of them.

[molson]

idk...that's pretty rich for my blood (and given it's just John Henry's money, and he may have given Theo the okay and already committed in his mind to paying the luxury tax at some point in the future - when he has to replace Manny and Lowell), but seems to me that giving up Lester AND Ellsbury AND Lowrie would be...seriously depleting the farm.

But what's the value of the "farm" if not for a trade like this? In the unlikely event that Ellsbury became a super-elite player on the level of Santana, you'd have to pay him a billion dollars anyway.

"Prospects" are for teams like the Twins and Pirates and Royals that continue to lie to their fans about having a "great future" with all their young talent (most of which won't pan out, and the few that do will be traded away anyway). Prospects have little or no value to the Red Sox or Yankees except as a commodity in trade. (I realize some young players make a big impact on the Sox in '07, but that was a nice surprise based on a limited sample size, and gave them the benefit of improving their trade value).

So in other words, trade the "prospects". If they turn out good, just trade back for them in 5 years for more prospects. Hey, baseball's screwed up, but if you're the Red Sox, take advantage.

[GreenMonster]

Pedro Martinez

November 18, 1997: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later and Carl Pavano. The Boston Red Sox sent Tony Armas (December 18, 1997) to the Montreal Expos to complete the trade.

This trade worked out pretty good. The other "huge" prospect the Expos could choose from was Brian Rose, all three were considered top MLB prospects. If we were making this deal for Dontrelle Willis I would have to think about it, for Johan Santana, how don't you make this move.

[Galaril]

But what's the value of the "farm" if not for a trade like this? In the unlikely event that Ellsbury became a super-elite player on the level of Santana, you'd have to pay him a billion dollars anyway.

"Prospects" are for teams like the Twins and Pirates and Royals that continue to lie to their fans about having a "great future" with all their young talent (most of which won't pan out, and the few that do will be traded away anyway). Prospects have little or no value to the Red Sox or Yankees except as a commodity in trade. (I realize some young players make a big impact on the Sox in '07, but that was a nice surprise based on a limited sample size, and gave them the benefit of improving their trade value).

So in other words, trade the "prospects". If they turn out good, just trade back for them in 5 years for more prospects. Hey, baseball's screwed up, but if you're the Red Sox, take advantage.


I think trading Ellsbury is fucking crazy the guy is going to be the next Ichiro.

[gstelmack]

I think trading Ellsbury is fucking crazy the guy is going to be the next Ichiro.

This is a key point. Lester and Ellsbury are not your typical "prospect". Both have performed VERY well on the big stage. You can give up one, but not both. And the Sox have been looking for a center fielder and shortstop for quite a while.

[rkmsuf]

I think trading Ellsbury is fucking crazy the guy is going to be the next Ichiro.

poor man's version maybe. great table setter and will score runs but has no arm compared to ichiro.

[MrBug708]

Yup.

Theo has done an incredible job building up a farm system - that's something the Sox have never had in my lifetime. It's time to cash in.

The Yankees and Red Sox are also notorious for hyping up their prospects over the past 10 years or so

[LloydLungs]

"Prospects" are for teams like the Twins and Pirates and Royals that continue to lie to their fans about having a "great future" with all their young talent (most of which won't pan out, and the few that do will be traded away anyway).

I agree with your overall point, and I realize the Twins' management has had their heads up their ass since the Castillo trade, but just for the record -- the Twins should not be mentioned in the same breath with the Pirates and Royals. They have won four of the last six AL Central titles, largely because their young talent DOES tend to pan out.

[mckerney]

I agree with your overall point, and I realize the Twins' management has had their heads up their ass since the Castillo trade, but just for the record -- the Twins should not be mentioned in the same breath with the Pirates and Royals. They have won four of the last six AL Central titles, largely because their young talent DOES tend to pan out.

Well, Terry Ryan isn't in charge anymore. Difficult to live up to what Ryan did, but so far I'm not real excited about Bill Smith.

[rkmsuf]

Who cares if they trade prospects. Let the Twins develop them and then Boston can get them back later when they cost more and win with them.


Just get Ellsbury back in a few years if he turns out to be great. Twins won't pay him and they could probably use some additional cheaper prospects then.

[molson]

The Yankees and Red Sox are also notorious for hyping up their prospects over the past 10 years or so

Hyping them up is just as good (even better), then them actually being good, when we're talking trade.

There's like a 2% chance Ellsbury will become Ichiro. And I'd still take Santana over Ichiro.

[Anthony]

how many Division Titles have the Mariners won with Ichiro?

how many have the Twins won with Santana?


that will let you know which one is more valuable. give the Twins Ellsbury, get Santana and the Yankees will be as relevant as the Blue Jays for the next 5-6 years. everybody wins.

[larrymcg421]

how many Division Titles have the Mariners won with Ichiro?

how many have the Twins won with Santana?


that will let you know which one is more valuable.

I agree with you that Santana is more valuable, but this is idiotic reasoning. You can't judge the value of individual players by the team accomplishment.

For example, put Ichiro on last year's Red Sox and Santana on last year's Pirates. The Red Sox still win the WS and the Pirates are an average team at best. Would that then prove Ichiro is better than Santana?

[RainMaker]

Am I the only one that thinks teams should be cautious of Santana? He seems to be in that stage of his career where most guys have some arm troubles. Years of throwing a lot of innings.

[Atocep]

Am I the only one that thinks teams should be cautious of Santana? He seems to be in that stage of his career where most guys have some arm troubles. Years of throwing a lot of innings.

His workload is fairly low for a soon to be 29 year old. He has just over 1,300 career innings and 4 years over 200. He's also shown no signs of arm trouble (that I know of) and once players get past the age of 24-25 with no arm troubles its a good sign that they should remain healthy throughout their careers.

If you look at his innings totals he was handled perfectly and I see no reason to worry about his future health.

[jbergey22]

Well, Terry Ryan isn't in charge anymore. Difficult to live up to what Ryan did, but so far I'm not real excited about Bill Smith.

What has Smith done that has been so bad that makes you so pessimistic?

[Alan T]

What has Smith done that has been so bad that makes you so pessimistic?

Ask him again in a few days after the Twins trade Santana for a very subpar package :)

[Anthony]

I agree with you that Santana is more valuable, but this is idiotic reasoning. You can't judge the value of individual players by the team accomplishment.

For example, put Ichiro on last year's Red Sox and Santana on last year's Pirates. The Red Sox still win the WS and the Pirates are an average team at best. Would that then prove Ichiro is better than Santana?

Josh Beckett=difference maker. be it the Marlins or the Red Sox, he's a difference maker. not to diminish Ichiro, but if you follow that pitching wins champioships (and seeing how Santana is a pitcher, a pretty decent one to say the least) you'd want Santana on your team over Ichiro.

how many division titles have the Twins won in the 10 years before Santana?

[Subby]

I wuold actually be pretty happy with Haren. He is a great pitcher and probably won't cost nearly as much in trade capital as Santana.

[Crapshoot]

Josh Beckett=difference maker. be it the Marlins or the Red Sox, he's a difference maker. not to diminish Ichiro, but if you follow that pitching wins champioships (and seeing how Santana is a pitcher, a pretty decent one to say the least) you'd want Santana on your team over Ichiro.

how many division titles have the Twins won in the 10 years before Santana?

You really are an idiot. How many titles did the Yanks win with Miguel Cairo? How many did they win with Don Mattingly? It follows from your stupidity that Cairo > Mattingly.

[Subby]

Heh - Neyer makes a good point...

Mike: (New York, NY): If Hank is true to his word about Santana, who would be a better fit for the Yankee Rotation: Bedard, Harren, or No move at all?

<!-- displayed mode -->http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Rob Neyer: Bedard and Haren would both be lovely. But wouldn't a Wang-Pettitte-Mussina-Chamberlain-Hughes rotation be plenty good, considering the lineup? With Ian Kennedy as backup?

[SirFozzie]

Here's the update from Peter Gammons on ESPN:

3:28 p.m., from Peter Gammons
• The Twins and Red Sox are getting closer to finalizing a Johan Santana deal. Boston has sweetened its offer by adding a fifth player to the trade proposal -- outfield prospect Ryan Kalish, a ninth-round draft pick in the 2006 out of Red Bank Catholic High School (Shrewsbury, N.J.).

[Fighter of Foo]

Josh Beckett=difference maker. be it the Marlins or the Red Sox, he's a difference maker. not to diminish Ichiro, but if you follow that pitching wins champioships (and seeing how Santana is a pitcher, a pretty decent one to say the least) you'd want Santana on your team over Ichiro.

how many division titles have the Twins won in the 10 years before Santana?

Scoring more runs than your opponent wins championships. Doesn't matter how you do it.

[Anthony]

You really are an idiot. How many titles did the Yanks win with Miguel Cairo? How many did they win with Don Mattingly? It follows from your stupidity that Cairo > Mattingly.

how are you that moronic that you would agrue that with the arrival of Santana the Twins became consistent contenders? pitching wins champioships - that's not a new concept. Santana happens to be a very good pitcher. hitters don't have much of an effect on a team, sure, you can count David Ortiz, Manny, Jeter as a few of the handful of guys who will win a game for you, but even the games' greats like Bonds, Pujols and Arod have done little to carry their teams. meanwhile guys like Beckett, Clemens and Schilling have absolutley won games and been difference makers. they have major impacts on their teams once they arrive.

[DeToxRox]

Anyone else hearing that the Angels are now making a push on Santana for a last minute deal?

[SirFozzie]

I'm hearing it, but the word I'm also hearing that it's going to be too little, too late.

[Maple Leafs]

I'm tempted to make a typically whiny "oh great, now Blue Jay fans can stop caring in December instead of waiting until June" post, but that would be too predictable.

Instead, I'm just going to wonder how it is that the Jays have been Boston and New York's bitch for years, yet those teams apparently have excellent prospects to trade and we don't. Nice work, J.P.

[MikeVic]

I'm tempted to make a typically whiny "oh great, now Blue Jay fans can stop caring in December instead of waiting until June" post, but that would be too predictable.

Instead, I'm just going to wonder how it is that the Jays have been Boston and New York's bitch for years, yet those teams apparently have excellent prospects to trade and we don't. Nice work, J.P.

:(

[Fighter of Foo]

hitters don't have much of an effect on a team,

We need to have a daily featured comment like espn does on their home page. I vote the above fragment as today's winner.

EDIT: It's even funnier that this is in relation to Santana and the Twins, who only had 4 guys this year who were capable of hitting their way out of a paper bag.

[Big Fo]

It's very interesting to see a number of Red Sox fans being nit-picky and pessimistic regarding this trade. It seems like a no-brainer from their standpoint to me, but I'm a neutral and don't know a ton about their farm system. Still though, it's Johan fucking Santana, you make the trade...

[BishopMVP]

Too much. I hope the Angels beat us or the Yankees get back in.

[Crapshoot]

how are you that moronic that you would agrue that with the arrival of Santana the Twins became consistent contenders? pitching wins champioships - that's not a new concept. Santana happens to be a very good pitcher. hitters don't have much of an effect on a team, sure, you can count David Ortiz, Manny, Jeter as a few of the handful of guys who will win a game for you, but even the games' greats like Bonds, Pujols and Arod have done little to carry their teams. meanwhile guys like Beckett, Clemens and Schilling have absolutley won games and been difference makers. they have major impacts on their teams once they arrive.

Dig up, stupid. Anyone who thinks Bonds didn't carry the Giants doesn't 1) understand basic math or 2) watch any baseball. A hitter can be pitched around but that still raises the run expectancy - meanwhile, a great pitcher can also generally be utilized once ever 5 days.

[BishopMVP]

It's very interesting to see a number of Red Sox fans being nit-picky and pessimistic regarding this trade. It seems like a no-brainer from their standpoint to me, but I'm a neutral and don't know a ton about their farm system. Still though, it's Johan fucking Santana, you make the trade...It's Johan Santana and a market-level deal. If the Yankees aren't gonna trade for him, why not just wait until he hits free agency and give up a 1st round pick? We're already the favorites for next year without him.

[Atocep]

BP is saying the deal is pretty much done now.

[Big Fo]

Yeah it's going to be an expensive long-term deal but it seems like the Red Sox have the money to spend.

Wait, the luxury tax is around $140m? I didn't know the Red Sox weren't already well over the line. It seems like a dumb rule to have if it's only going to punish one team, or maybe two.

[Logan]

Yeah it's going to be an expensive long-term deal but it seems like the Red Sox have the money to spend.

Wait, the luxury tax is around $140m? I didn't know the Red Sox weren't already well over the line. It seems like a dumb rule to have if it's only going to punish one team, or maybe two.

This is really, really funny.

[molson]

The Sox don't really have any long-term dead weight on the payroll, so I don't think the money should be a concern to fans.

[molson]

It seems like a dumb rule to have if it's only going to punish one team, or maybe two.

The MLB owners aren't exactly known for their resolve in labor negotiations.

[highfiveoh]

he has a no trade and said f-you to the twins trading him during the season.

at least I think that's the case

He denied ever saying that and was apparently "furious" about it. Just saying...

No, his agent denied that he only wanted to be traded to the Red Sox or Yankees. His agent declined comment on not waiving the no-trade clause during the '08 season.

[Logan]

Ok fair enough, my apologies.

[jeff061]

I'd mortgage the farm for a young stud pitcher like Santana. If they can get him without giving up Ellsbury or Bucholz, well it's a steal in my opinion.

[Ryche]

Unless the Twins get blown away with a deal for Santana, I hope they hold on to him. Go out and sign another decent bat and take a run at it this year.

[highfiveoh]

Unless the Twins get blown away with a deal for Santana, I hope they hold on to him. Go out and sign another decent bat and take a run at it this year.

Hi. I'm the Detroit Tigers and I just traded for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

[Ryche]

Hi. I'm the Detroit Tigers and I just traded for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

Sorry, the Tigers pitching staff does not impress me. And their offense is depending upon a lot of older players that were showing signs of breaking down last season.

[highfiveoh]

Okey dokey then.

1B- Guillen
2B- Polanco
3B- Cabrera
SS- Renteria
OF- Granderson
OF- Jones
OF- Ordonez
C - Pudge
DH- Sheffield

Staff: Bonderman, Robertson, Kenny, Willis, Verlander

[sterlingice]

I'm tempted to make a typically whiny "oh great, now Blue Jay fans can stop caring in December instead of waiting until June" post, but that would be too predictable.

Instead, I'm just going to wonder how it is that the Jays have been Boston and New York's bitch for years, yet those teams apparently have excellent prospects to trade and we don't. Nice work, J.P.

The Yankees and Red Sox are also notorious for hyping up their prospects over the past 10 years or so

SI

[watravaler]

Twins fans should revolt if this debacle of a trade goes through. What a horrible offer for THE elite pitcher in baseball.

[BishopMVP]

FWIW, posted on soxprospects.com From a friend I have within the Organization, and obviously I can not mention sources so you will either have to believe or not. I have heard in reference to Santana that "Nothing gets done in the next 3 days" I asked "were they just driving the price up to make it more expensive for the Yanks" I got back "probably" That is all I could get everyone is tight lipped on this . They did confirm that the rumors that there is some back and forth going on where the sox are adding players is simply not true and that much less is happening than anyone realizes because they are confident nothing will happen in the next 3 days. I am assuming there is something else going on that is consuming the FO for that period , but not sure what.

It is also the belief of this person that a deal will not get done.

This person has given me info in the past and it has been right every time, but again, this is completely anecdotal. I'm firmly in the hoping the deal doesn't go through camp, and I think people like watraveler are seriously undervaluing the players being offered once you bring economics and deadlines into play, but no need to post the same arguments twice.

[Atocep]

If the deal is indeed Lester, Masterson, Lowrie, and Kalish then I'd say the Twins did about as well as they're going to do considering the Red Sox still have to pay the guy more than $20 mil per year.

Lester should develop into a very solid #2 starter and possibly a low-end #1. Masterson is a power sinker pitcher that has #2 starter upside. Lowrie should probably be moved to 2nd and if he is he's a borderline all-star once developed, and Kalish is the toolsy outfielder type the Twins love.

This is a much better offer than the Yankees had on the table, the difference is Masterson, Lowrie, and Kalish aren't overhyped guys along the lines of Melkey Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, and Ellsbury.

IMO, the Twins did an excellent job getting value here. Every one of these guys rates as at least borderline all-star potential with Lester being the player with the most upside.

[BishopMVP]

It's basically guaranteed if the deal goes through either Ellsbury or Crisp will be included. Lowrie also fits way too well from both perspectives not to go, but Boston refuses to include Lester with Ellsbury. The indications I've heard say Kalish was added more in place of Masterson than as a 5th/4th piece alongside Ellsbury/Crisp-Lester + Lowrie. The CF Kalish also makes a lot more sense paired up with Crisp, who is an FA in 3 years, than Ellsbury.

(PS - Glad to see someone else recognize the RS players on the table aren't bad prospects. ;) )

[Anthony]

this Marlins/Tigers deal, where Cabrera AND Willis go to Detroit for 2 uber prospects and 4 solid - at best - prospects, most likely hurts the Twins. not to say the Twins are forced into making the same bad trade as the Marlins did, but a trade like that tends to set the going rate. if i'm the Red Sox i'm kicking myself i didn't make the trade the Tigers did. you could have let Lowell leave as a FA, have his HOF-bound and younger replacement in Cabrera, and get a clear #2 in Willis to compliment Beckett, instead of having to trot out 2 aces and have tension build up once you pay Sanatana that big money and Beckett winds up being the one to win you the big game. if i'm the Red Sox i'd be saying "wait a sec, why do we have to give up all these prospects for just one guy when the Tigers got 2 dominant All Stars for basically 2 good prospects?"

[miked]

How do you define dominant? Is this the same Willis whose ERA has gone from mid 2s, to upper 3s, to low 5s in the last 3 seasons? The same one who throws in a pitcher's park? The D-train gave up nearly 30 HR and walked almost 90 guys in just over 200 innings. That's bad. His K totals have gone down and he looks like he may be headed the wrong way. Cabrera is obviously a stud, so I think they got good return.

But I think you are incorrect in your assessment of this deal. It doesn't lower the value for Santana, since one is a pitcher requiring a 20M contract, and the other 2 are arbitration guys. Andrew Miller has high upside and is just a rookie. Basically, the Marlins are just turning back the clock and got pretty good return considering they had to deal these two.

[Anthony]

i'm talking about the Dontrelle Willis who has been to 2 All Star in his 1st 5 seasons. the rookie of the year Dontrelle Willis. the Dontrelle Willis who has set the Marlins record for wins. whose career ERA is under 4 despite playing for the Marlins (here's the part where miked will say "he played in a pitcher's park"). he's no Johan Santana, but let's get serious - he's a big pitcher and he's young and he's lefthanded. Santana's numbers wouldn't be as good either if he played on the Marlins.

[nfg22]

HA...Get serious, the Marlins have had way better hitting than the Twins. The Twins have only been succesful due to good pitching and defense(which may have helped Santana).The Twins have had maybe three hitters in the last five years worthy of being All-Stars(Mauer, Morneau, Hunter). They used to have Jones and Stewart but they never put up huge numbers and they were even before M&M. Also the defense doesnt do much during the 7-10 K's a game that Santana puts out. Willis can't even touch Santana.

[BishopMVP]

and get a clear #2 in Willis to compliment BeckettHaha. Willis might get a slight bump his 1st time through the AL as hitters adjust to his unorthodox delivery, but I would take Dice-K, Schilling and Buchholz before him, with Lester about a push and Wakefield the same if he is healthy.

[larrymcg421]

i'm talking about the Dontrelle Willis who has been to 2 All Star in his 1st 5 seasons. the rookie of the year Dontrelle Willis. the Dontrelle Willis who has set the Marlins record for wins. whose career ERA is under 4 despite playing for the Marlins (here's the part where miked will say "he played in a pitcher's park"). he's no Johan Santana, but let's get serious - he's a big pitcher and he's young and he's lefthanded. Santana's numbers wouldn't be as good either if he played on the Marlins.

It's the Marlins fault that Willis's K rate has gone down in consecutive seasons and his BB rate has gone up. Got it.

[Anthony]

Haha. Willis might get a slight bump his 1st time through the AL as hitters adjust to his unorthodox delivery, but I would take Dice-K, Schilling and Buchholz before him, with Lester about a push and Wakefield the same if he is healthy.

then you, sir, should never be a GM in baseball.

who would you rather have 5 years from now - Schilling or Willis? Dice-K could be the next Hideki Irabu for all we know. i'm going with the 2005 Cy Young runner up Willis.

[miked]

then you, sir, should never be a GM in baseball.

who would you rather have 5 years from now - Schilling or Willis? Dice-K could be the next Hideki Irabu for all we know. i'm going with the 2005 Cy Young runner up Willis.

As usual, you attempting to cloud the issue with a random, and quite obvious statement. Sure, we'd all much rather have Willis in 5 years, when Schilling is retired. But to say that the Marlins were hosed for getting 2 great prospects and 4 pretty good ones for a hitter everyone knew they HAD to deal and a pitcher who is trending downward (in a pitcher's park) is silly. The Marlins got a pretty good return, considering most people thought he was going to the Mets for Milledge or something similar recently. He may turn it around, but that's not what the numbers are saying.

Edit: Don't forget that Willis makes over 7M (I think) and will be eligible for free agency next season I believe.

[larrymcg421]

then you, sir, should never be a GM in baseball.

who would you rather have 5 years from now - Schilling or Willis? Dice-K could be the next Hideki Irabu for all we know. i'm going with the 2005 Cy Young runner up Willis.

Dice K

K/9: 8.8
BB/9: 3.5

Willis

K/9: 6.4
BB/9: 3.8
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[Anthony]

and if you got 2 hits in your first 4 at-bats and retired immediately thereafter, your career BA would be .500.

what's your point?

you're gonna compare DiceK to Dontrelle based off of one year? again, you, sir, should not be a GM in baseball.

[miked]

This thread reminds me of why everyone wanted HA in their division in the UBL. :p

[larrymcg421]

Actually we have more than one year for Willis

Three year trend for Willis

K/9: 6.5/6.4/6.4
B/9: 2.0/3.3/3.8
ERA+: 151/112/83

His K/9 in his best year still doesn't even approach Dice-K's only season, and his walk rate is increasing by staggering amounts.

If you're going to ignore three year trends, then you "don't deserve to be a GM in baseball."

[Mr. Wednesday]

If the Sox do not trade for Johan Santana, an outcome last night as plausible as a deal going down, it may stem in part from some ambivalence on the part of club officials on whether they really want to do it. Theo Epstein and Co. enjoy watching the kids develop and win--going out and signing Santana makes them more like the Yankees. And surprisingly, there might be a greater willingness, at least on the part of some on the baseball ops side, to let Jacoby Ellsbury go in a Santana deal, and hold onto Lester, the belief being that 1) Ellsbury's value will never be higher and 2) Lester may have a higher upside than he's given credit for. At the same time, the Sox are well aware of the attachment many fans already have developed to Ellsbury. On the other hand, how do you pass up the chance to acquire Santana, a pitcher as special as Pedro Martinez was a decade ago?
These are the thoughts that get kicked around while waiting to see if anything develops at the midnight gathering of the Sox brass, development people and scouts.

Unless you are the one who originally wrote that paragraph on other site where it was posted, you should attribute it properly.

[BishopMVP]

then you, sir, should never be a GM in baseball.

who would you rather have 5 years from now - Schilling or Willis? Dice-K could be the next Hideki Irabu for all we know. i'm going with the 2005 Cy Young runner up Willis.That would be all well and good if you magically find the 2005 Cy Young runner up version of Dontrelle and bring him back. Unfortunately, you have a pitcher whose ERA+'s have declined from 151 in 2005 to 112 in 2006 and 83 this past year, with a WHIP of 1.6. As opposed to Dice-K who threw up an ERA+ of 108 and a WHIP of 1.324 in the AL East. Perhaps coincidentally, Willis' slide started in 2006, a year when the Marlins abused their young pitchers so much Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson (3 of the other 5 from that rotation) were out the next year with arm problems. You can also arbitrarily pick Schilling (or Wakefield) out of that argument, or you could look and see even once they retire that leaves Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz and Lester as pitchers who I would rather have in 5 years than Dontrelle, not to mention minor leaguers like Masterson, Bowden, Clay and Hagadone, at least one of which will probably be better, especially considering they'll be making league minimum rather than a bloated $10 million a year like Willis.

But hey, I'm sure overpayment based on past performance and name recognition is a hallmark of great GM's.

[BishopMVP]

BTW, as good as Santana is/has been, he doesn't approach Pedro's numbers. Johan has thrown up ERA+'s between 130 and 182 the last 6 years. Pedro averaged a 216.7 from 1997-2003, including only one season (1998) below Johan's best, and an absurd 243 in 1999 and 291 in 2000.

[jbergey22]

then you, sir, should never be a GM in baseball.

who would you rather have 5 years from now - Schilling or Willis? Dice-K could be the next Hideki Irabu for all we know. i'm going with the 2005 Cy Young runner up Willis.

Well In five years from now with the Willis trends you are seeing you may not want either of them. As far as who could be the next Hideki Irabu, It seems that Willis is more on that pattern at this point. I am not saying Willis cant recover but at this point Dice-K seems to be the much safer bet.

[DaddyTorgo]

BTW, as good as Santana is/has been, he doesn't approach Pedro's numbers. Johan has thrown up ERA+'s between 130 and 182 the last 6 years. Pedro averaged a 216.7 from 1997-2003, including only one season (1998) below Johan's best, and an absurd 243 in 1999 and 291 in 2000.


but those 6 seasons from pedro were (statistically speaking) the best 6 year run by any pitcher in the history of the game IIRC. Or something like...#2 or #3 on the list. The odds of anyone approaching that type of dominance again in our lifetimes is...infinitesimal.

[Kang]

Congratulations, saldana!

[Fidatelo]

but those 6 seasons from pedro were (statistically speaking) the best 6 year run by any pitcher in the history of the game IIRC. Or something like...#2 or #3 on the list. The odds of anyone approaching that type of dominance again in our lifetimes is...infinitesimal.

You think so? The game is about 125 years old, people live about 75 years, and it sounds like about 2-3 people have had his kind of 6 year run. So lets say it happen every 40-50 years, we've seen it once, the odds of it happening again before we die are actually not too bad. Maybe not 50%, but probably better than infinitesimal.

P.S. All stats and math are off the top of my head and likely wrong.

[TroyF]

but those 6 seasons from pedro were (statistically speaking) the best 6 year run by any pitcher in the history of the game IIRC. Or something like...#2 or #3 on the list. The odds of anyone approaching that type of dominance again in our lifetimes is...infinitesimal.

It may happen again in our lifetime. May being a key word.

Those 6 years by Pedro were simply stunning. I think I mentioned it in a thread a year or two back, I'm simply awed when I look aback at that six year run. Just unbelievable.

[DaddyTorgo]

It may happen again in our lifetime. May being a key word.

Those 6 years by Pedro were simply stunning. I think I mentioned it in a thread a year or two back, I'm simply awed when I look aback at that six year run. Just unbelievable.

those 6 years by pedro give me wood. and i'm a heterosexual male. sooo lucky to have lived in this town during those years.

[rkmsuf]

those 6 years by pedro give me wood. and i'm a heterosexual male. sooo lucky to have lived in this town during those years.

Is Brady giving you wood?

[DaddyTorgo]

Is Brady giving you wood?

yes. although not so much this week so far (still time for him to redeem himself though)

[gstelmack]

So reading one of the articles, the Marlins really had a lower payroll than their revenue sharing income? And baseball allowed that? Now I remember why I only really pay attention to baseball as the playoffs roll around and the Sox are still in it...

[BishopMVP]

but those 6 seasons from pedro were (statistically speaking) the best 6 year run by any pitcher in the history of the game IIRC. Or something like...#2 or #3 on the list. The odds of anyone approaching that type of dominance again in our lifetimes is...infinitesimal.I know, I was responding to the assertion thatOn the other hand, how do you pass up the chance to acquire Santana, a pitcher as special as Pedro Martinez was a decade ago?Should've quoted it.

[Crapshoot]

It may happen again in our lifetime. May being a key word.

Those 6 years by Pedro were simply stunning. I think I mentioned it in a thread a year or two back, I'm simply awed when I look aback at that six year run. Just unbelievable.

Doubt even the may- Pedro's 1999 and 2000 were the greatest two year stretch in modern baseball history. I always explain this to old timers, who go crazy - Pedro is/was the pitcher they always imagined Sandy Koufax to be.

Man, Indians fans can wonder what might have been if they had been willing to give up on Jaret Wright in that deal, and Yankee fans should curse themselves for giving up Tony Armas Jr in the first place for Mike Stanley (to the Red Sox) - allow the Sox to make the Pedro deal.

[molson]

So reading one of the articles, the Marlins really had a lower payroll than their revenue sharing income? And baseball allowed that?

People call the Yankees (and now the Red Sox) the evil empire, but c'mon, this is way, way, worse.

[DeToxRox]

Olney and Stark reporting the Twins/Sox arent' going to reach a deal

[DeToxRox]

The two big reports is Rosenthal says the Mariners are back in the Santana race, and that another report has a three team deal where Satana goes to the Mets, Haren to the Twins, Reyes to the A's. Lot of other parts to it but those are the three names.

[Logan]

and that another report has a three team deal where Satana goes to the Mets, Haren to the Twins, Reyes to the A's. Lot of other parts to it but those are the three names.

Not a chance.

[stevew]

I just don't see the Mets trading one of the top 10 players from the last 50 years...

[DeToxRox]

I just don't see the Mets trading one of the top 10 players from the last 50 years...

Zinga.

[Synovia]

People call the Yankees (and now the Red Sox) the evil empire, but c'mon, this is way, way, worse.


It definitely is WAY worse. As much as the sox and yankees make the league non competitive, they bring in billions in revenue. Teams like the marlins just drag the league down. The lack of a salary FLOOR is much more of an issue than the lack of the salary cap.



(IIRC, the NFL's cap is like $109m, and floor is like 90m)

[DaddyTorgo]

I just don't see the Mets trading one of the top 10 players from the last 50 years...

how bout we give him a few more years before we make that kind of statement about him, hmm?

[DeToxRox]

how bout we give him a few more years before we make that kind of statement about him, hmm?

It's something Tim McCarver said.

[DaddyTorgo]

It's something Tim McCarver said.

well that explains it. nonsense from the village idiot.

[Logan]

Yeah you missed a good thread.

[stevew]

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=60550&highlight=reyes

[DaddyTorgo]

Yeah you missed a good thread.

actually I posted in that thread. several times. Even dug up statistics for it. Just missed the reference

[molson]

The lack of a salary FLOOR is much more of an issue than the lack of the salary cap.



FWIW, the owners (or most of them) wanted a salary floor, but the players opposed it. I guess on the reasoning that it's one step away from having a cap.

[highfiveoh]

If the Sox do not trade for Johan Santana, an outcome last night as plausible as a deal going down, it may stem in part from some ambivalence on the part of club officials on whether they really want to do it. Theo Epstein and Co. enjoy watching the kids develop and win--going out and signing Santana makes them more like the Yankees. And surprisingly, there might be a greater willingness, at least on the part of some on the baseball ops side, to let Jacoby Ellsbury go in a Santana deal, and hold onto Lester, the belief being that 1) Ellsbury's value will never be higher and 2) Lester may have a higher upside than he's given credit for. At the same time, the Sox are well aware of the attachment many fans already have developed to Ellsbury. On the other hand, how do you pass up the chance to acquire Santana, a pitcher as special as Pedro Martinez was a decade ago?
These are the thoughts that get kicked around while waiting to see if anything develops at the midnight gathering of the Sox brass, development people and scouts.

Maybe put quotes around stuff you take off of a blog.

[highfiveoh]

Unless you are the one who originally wrote that paragraph on other site where it was posted, you should attribute it properly.

:o

[Subby]

But really has this board come to this that we can't post something from asource especailly a blog without attributing who wrote it.
WTF does that have to do with it? You didn't write it. It isn't yours. Properly attribute it. What are you, 16?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Yes you are right it was from Boston Dirtdogs who posted it from Extra Bases Blog. It was a fast post and I didn't have time to "Attribute" who's site it was from. But really has this board come to this that we can't post something from asource especailly a blog without attributing who wrote it. You are technically correct but this reminds me of when I was in grad school geez.:cool:

Come on, how hard is it to put in a sentence saying where you got it and quotes to indicate that you didn't write it? I'm not saying you have to do a journal-style citation, but it's certainly not appropriate to post giving the impression that it's your own work when it's not.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and if you spent any time in grad school, then you shouldn't need me to be telling you that.

[DaddyTorgo]

wow. People really have their panties in a wad over this still? Must be a slow news day. Jeezus.

[molson]

wow. People really have their panties in a wad over this still? Must be a slow news day. Jeezus.

It's was only 4 or 5 posts but c'mon -cutting and pasting something from another place as if it's your own post is bad form. It's not that anyone should give a shit whether the proper person gets "credit", it's just weird. Kind of like when people say something they read of Bill Simmons' as if they thought of it themselves.

[st.cronin]

Lorsque les grands hommes se laissent abattre par la longueur de leurs infortunes, ils font voir qu'ils ne les soutenaient que par la force de leur ambition, et non par celle de leur ame, et qu'a une grande vanite pres les heros sont faits comme les autres hommes.

[sterlingice]

Lorsque les grands hommes se laissent abattre par la longueur de leurs infortunes, ils font voir qu'ils ne les soutenaient que par la force de leur ambition, et non par celle de leur ame, et qu'a une grande vanite pres les heros sont faits comme les autres hommes.

Damn. What's he saying? I don't speak jive.

SI