Weird things are happening

[claretonmyshirt]

Just played a game in a multi player league and I played a 60-40 pass game and my QB throws 57 times compared to 20 rushes. My adjustments kick in at 52 minutes, the score wentt as follows as well so not like i was behind by a large score or anything

3-0, 3-7, 10-7, 10-14, 17-14, 17-17,20-17, 20-24, 20-31

My SS did not play one down although he had no injuries but does have an endurance of 20

My stud DT played just 31 plays of 49 with an endurance of 40 yet his two DT's out of 79 plays played 74 and 55 plays with endurances of 26 and 25 !?!?!?

His OL on pass block and strength adds up to 30 average per man, by DL adds up to 60 on average plus i blitzed my OLB's Heavil yyet i got just 1 sack and 1 hurry, his QB sense rush is 74 ?!?!?!?

My HB ran just 10 of 20 plays with an endureance of 60, start time of 90% with the new patch running, we ran 80% up the middle whn my gameplan said run 45% outside the tackles

Obvious answer is my gameplan did not upload but all my positional changes did plus the receit for it is still on the Official web page

Any views or help would be greatly appreciated

[Ben E Lou]

Just played a game in a multi player league and I played a 60-40 pass game and my QB throws 57 times compared to 20 rushes.

So it threw 74% of the time instead of the planned 60%, huh?

[Synovia]

Yeah, not exactly surprising. I tend to find if I go any more than 55% passing on first down, I end up in a lot of 2nd/3rd and 10s, and end up having to throw.


"My HB ran just 10 of 20 plays with an endureance of 60, start time of 90% with the new patch running, we ran 80% up the middle whn my gameplan said run 45% outside the tackles"

That doesn't surprise me, as I've seen pretty much the same thing. I don't think the run distribution (middle/left/right) works properly.

[JetsIn06]

I haven't done any testing or anything...but I think looking at one game's worth of plays isn't a large enough sample size to determine whether or not the run direction is working.

If someone has simmed an entire season and it still isn't working right, then I'm wrong.

But only having 20 running plays in one game is not enough to tell me that if you get 80% after setting it to 55%, it's broken.

[Groundhog]

I flipped a coin two times last night, and both times it landed on heads. Something is wrong here.

[Tormaz]

Each time you set something up its a % chance that it will happen that way.

The game is based on dice rolls.

So if you set it up to run 95% of the time there is still the chance you could throw a pass every single down. I think what you are expecting is the game to call it based on what % you set it up for. Like if they called 100 plays you want a 40 run / 60 pass breakdown. That won't happen.

I tend to over do it a bit. If I want to run mostly in a situation I set it at 75-80. If I want to mostly pass I set it in the 85 area. This way I am pretty sure things will fall the way I would prefer them to.

[RedKingGold]

I haven't done any testing or anything...but I think looking at one game's worth of plays isn't a large enough sample size to determine whether or not the run direction is working.

Yup.

[claretonmyshirt]

I appreciate what some of you are saying but for all of them to go wrong ?!?!

Which way i ran
Pass Rush
Passing
Players not playing 1 down
My DT play 2/3 of plays to his DT's 99% of plays when my DT had twice the endurance of his DTI am not moaning i wish to understand so it does not happen again

[JetsIn06]

My DT play 2/3 of plays to his DT's 99% of plays when my DT had twice the endurance of his DT

I don't know what this means. :confused:

[JetsIn06]

I appreciate what some of you are saying but for all of them to go wrong ?!?!
Which way i ran
Pass Rush
Passing
Players not playing 1 down
My DT play 2/3 of plays to his DT's 99% of plays when my DT had twice the endurance of his DTI am not moaning i wish to understand so it does not happen again

Your not doing anything wrong. You just need to understand that their are only approximately 120 plays in a game, 60 of them on offense. If you set it to run 45% of the time, the possibility of you getting exactly 45% is extremely tough. Over an entire season, though, you will get much closer to that percentage.

Also, you have to take into account what someone else said. If it rolls run on first down and you get -3 yards, then your goin' into pass mode. If your in a lot of third and long situations, your goin' into pass mode.

Again, I can't understand what your saying about defense, so please write it more clearly and maybe we can help you.

[claretonmyshirt]

I don't know what this means. :confused:

My Stud DT played 32 of 47 plays with an endurance of 40, his DT played 77 of 79 plays with an endurance of 20

On the losing -3 yards on 1st down i wasn't i was making anything from 3 to 15 yards, he completed his first 18 passes. Basically the only time i ran was on short yardage and on the odd occassion on 2nd down

[Synovia]

So if you set it up to run 95% of the time there is still the chance you could throw a pass every single down.



Yes, it COULD happen. But if it does, you can almost be sure that theres something wrong, because its way outside the standard distribution.

[Front Office Midget]

My SS did not play one down although he had no injuries but does have an endurance of 20

You're sure he didn't get an injury at the start of the game that might have kept him out the rest of the game, but not shown up in the injury report? And you're sure that he was set as your starter?

My stud DT played just 31 plays of 49 with an endurance of 40 yet his two DT's out of 79 plays played 74 and 55 plays with endurances of 26 and 25 !?!?!?

Playing time settings.

His OL on pass block and strength adds up to 30 average per man, by DL adds up to 60 on average plus i blitzed my OLB's Heavil yyet i got just 1 sack and 1 hurry, his QB sense rush is 74 ?!?!?!?

74 is a high Sense Rush... Your team won't perform exactly as predicted every game.

My HB ran just 10 of 20 plays with an endureance of 60, start time of 90% with the new patch running, we ran 80% up the middle whn my gameplan said run 45% outside the tackles

Maybe someone else can handle this more in-depth than I could regarding the RB endurance... try setting his playing time higher. And, you ran 80% up the middle instead of 55%... 20 plays isn't a huge sample size. Your numbers won't match your gameplan exactly, those are just tendencies, not set in stone numbers of how many times you will run each way. Your coach just decided to run up the middle more.

[Yoda]

Yes, it COULD happen. But if it does, you can almost be sure that theres something wrong, because its way outside the standard distribution.

Just because something falls out of the standard distribution, doesn't mean anything is wrong. It's RANDOM, it DOES happen.

It's when it CONSISTANTLY falls outside of it, that there is a problem. Not just because it falls out of the SD in one game.

If you flip a coin 6 times, and 6 times get heads, that's way out of the normal SD, does that mean something is wrong? NO.

That's the problem with using different forms of math to (over) anal-ize something.

Quick statistics lesson. If you set it up to pass 90% of the time, does that mean that out of 100 passes, you should expect ~90 passes? No. It means that on each individual play, that there is a 90% of it being called a pass play.

That's a very subtle, but very important distinction.

[Yoda]

My stud DT played just 31 plays of 49 with an endurance of 40 yet his two DT's out of 79 plays played 74 and 55 plays with endurances of 26 and 25 !?!?!?


What is his playtime set at? That's very important. If you want a player to play alot, you need to set their PT to 90 or higher.


His OL on pass block and strength adds up to 30 average per man, by DL adds up to 60 on average plus i blitzed my OLB's Heavil yyet i got just 1 sack and 1 hurry, his QB sense rush is 74 ?!?!?!?


74 is very high. You must still be in a Madden mode of thinking. One thing that my brother told me when he got me into this game, which has held very true, is that unlike Madden, a 50 is a good player. It's also a good score in a skill. A 74 might be the best in the league, and chances are, it's in the top 5.


My HB ran just 10 of 20 plays with an endureance of 60, start time of 90% with the new patch running, we ran 80% up the middle whn my gameplan said run 45% outside the tackles


Well, from what I understand, with an endurance of 60, and a start time of 90%, your HB would have a 54% of carrying the ball. I had the same problem in several leagues. I changed the HB's playtime to 100%, and that pretty much cleared it up.

Just remember that there is a RNG (which stands for Random Number Generator, not range) as the engine for the game. You have to look at a sample set of a least 6 games to notice trends. The best way I've found to test things is to set up the game plan. Find a team that fits what your MP is (or fantasy draft one and save it as a base file) and run it though 3 -4 seasons. Don't do the offseason, just repeat the 1st season over and over. And use that as a sample set.

[Synovia]

Quick statistics lesson. If you set it up to pass 90% of the time, does that mean that out of 100 passes, you should expect ~90 passes? No. It means that on each individual play, that there is a 90% of it being called a pass play.



No, but if you get 100 runs, you can be assured that the system is broken. Sample size is an issue, but when we're looking at things happening that have a lower than 1-in-a-billion probability, you can be assured that its not truly random.


Its statistically possible that you could get 100 "heads" in a row, but if you do, its much more likely that the coin is weighted than that it is a 50/50 shot.

[Yoda]

We are talking about a 'single' (being one game) sample size and the resultant being 2 maybe 3 deviations from the standard (1 of one)? You should EXPECT that to happen. If anything, if it didn't, that would cause me to wonder even more if it was always within ~5%.

[Synovia]

We are talking about a 'single' (being one game) sample size and the resultant being 2 maybe 3 deviations from the standard (1 of one)? You should EXPECT that to happen. If anything, if it didn't, that would cause me to wonder even more if it was always within ~5%.
FWIW, I don't haev a problem with the passing/running skew, although I don't think it works 100% correctly, although I can't prove that (just seems to stick in games, like the RNG isn't generating new numbers...but I haven't done the research to prove that).


My main issue is the runs middle/left/right. I've run a couple of gameplans running mostly to the outside, and the distribution didn't seem to change any.

[claretonmyshirt]

I can understand on the Pass rush that the 74 sense rush made it very hard to sack him, but i would of thought i would of hurried him more than once

The safety was my starter and did not get injured at any point

The DT start time was about 80% on 4-3 nickle and dime,

I understand what your saying about flipping a coin 6 times and 6 times it lands on heads because every spin gives you a 50-50 chance of it landing one sde or the other and i can understand once in a while your going to get some bad die rolls, but it seemed to happen on everything.

I spent 2 hours putting a defensive plan together and another 2 going through the help file, the forum etc. I have used it in two games in two seperate Leagues since with the odd little tweak here and there and i have given up 370 yards in total across the 2 games and just 14 points so i think i have cured a lot of things. I put the DT's starting time up to 100% and played him on 4-3 only and he came up with 1.5 sacks and played a lot more downs.

The safety issue seems still to be there as i played a guy who was injured with a fairly high performance still as backup to both safety positions, injury setting on 60%, both starting safties where on 90% yet the backup did not play one down, he was also in as the dime back, i played dime about 4 times.

I am a very good mathmatican (spelling not so hot !!!) i wrote a game on an old Amiga around american football a long time ago and it had pretty realistic stats and I played it for ages using randon die's etc so i am pretty up on how this works in a game, what i found at rare times was the game got it self stuck in a loop and threw say 8 x 4 on the trot on a die of 20 espeially if the PC was doing a lot of calculations, i also found that a very very small mistake in the programming at the far ends the possible outcomes of the combined die roles could sent the outcome into a loop,

For instance A+b +c/2 = D and if it hit the highest score possible or higher and was then rounded down and the the other teams was at the lowest point and /or rounded up strange things happened, not saying its happening here but it's a possibility and i think a few people maybe think something like this, like at the end of a game when a QB is bombing time after time and you get incomplete after incomplete ,

Anyway I appreciate peoples thoughts and help

[claretonmyshirt]

I can understand on the Pass rush that the 74 sense rush made it very hard to sack him, but i would of thought i would of hurried him more than once

The safety was my starter and did not get injured at any point

The DT start time was about 80% on 4-3 nickle and dime,

I understand what your saying about flipping a coin 6 times and 6 times it lands on heads because every spin gives you a 50-50 chance of it landing one sde or the other and i can understand once in a while your going to get some bad die rolls, but it seemed to happen on everything.

I spent 2 hours putting a defensive plan together and another 2 going through the help file, the forum etc. I have used it in two games in two seperate Leagues since with the odd little tweak here and there and i have given up 370 yards in total across the 2 games and just 14 points so i think i have cured a lot of things. I put the DT's starting time up to 100% and played him on 4-3 only and he came up with 1.5 sacks and played a lot more downs.

The safety issue seems still to be there as i played a guy who was injured with a fairly high performance still as backup to both safety positions, injury setting on 60%, both starting safties where on 90% yet the backup did not play one down, he was also in as the dime back, i played dime about 4 times.

I am a very good mathmatican (spelling not so hot !!!) i wrote a game on an old Amiga around american football a long time ago and it had pretty realistic stats and I played it for ages using randon die's etc so i am pretty up on how this works in a game, what i found at rare times was the game got it self stuck in a loop and threw say 8 x 4 on the trot on a die of 20 espeially if the PC was doing a lot of calculations, i also found that a very very small mistake in the programming at the far ends the possible outcomes of the combined die roles could sent the outcome into a loop,

For instance A+b +c/2 = D and if it hit the highest score possible or higher and was then rounded down and the the other teams was at the lowest point and /or rounded up strange things happened, not saying its happening here but it's a possibility and i think a few people maybe think something like this, like at the end of a game when a QB is bombing time after time and you get incomplete after incomplete ,

Anyway I appreciate peoples thoughts and help

[Front Office Midget]

As for the hurries, I think that hurries are only given out when you force an incompletion, not any time you get pressure on the QB.

[Yoda]

Also, something else to keep in mind, is that there is no true 'random' function. Even the Random class (in C++ for example) which generates 'random' numbers, is actually a preset list of numbers (for lack of a better term), and uses the time to modify the result into something random. Like when you want a random result of 1-100, you mod the number you get from the random function by 99 and add 1.

Granted, there are tons of methods used to generate random numbers, but (for the most part) they all start from that pre-set number pool.

[Raiders Army]

Also, something else to keep in mind, is that there is no true 'random' function. Even the Random class (in C++ for example) which generates 'random' numbers, is actually a preset list of numbers (for lack of a better term), and uses the time to modify the result into something random. Like when you want a random result of 1-100, you mod the number you get from the random function by 99 and add 1.

Granted, there are tons of methods used to generate random numbers, but (for the most part) they all start from that pre-set number pool.

Wise you are.

[PiemasterUK]

Wise you are.

Or just familiar with the internet.

In any discussion about the element of chance in computer games, there is an over/under of about 20 posts before somebody mentions that computers are unable to generate a truly random number. I think on the WoW forums, someone once called it 'The Crymore Constant'.

For perspective, it is only fair to point out that humans are unable to generate a truly random number either.

[Yoda]

Or just familiar with the internet.

In any discussion about the element of chance in computer games, there is an over/under of about 20 posts before somebody mentions that computers are unable to generate a truly random number. I think on the WoW forums, someone once called it 'The Crymore Constant'.

For perspective, it is only fair to point out that humans are unable to generate a truly random number either.

Thanks, but I know a little about programming (having taken it for 2 years in college, and currently taking C++ for the 2nd semister), I am not just 'familiar' with the internet, and I rather resent the 'tone' of your message.

And to be fair, it was inline with the discussion we were having about probability in dealing with this game.

[PiemasterUK]

Thanks, but I know a little about programming (having taken it for 2 years in college, and currently taking C++ for the 2nd semister), I am not just 'familiar' with the internet, and I rather resent the 'tone' of your message.

And to be fair, it was inline with the discussion we were having about probability in dealing with this game.

The point I was trying to make is that the revelation that computers can't generate random numbers is not exactly new. I was also alluding to the fact that it is often used as positive affirmation for wild theories about 'random' elements of games supposedly being non random or 'fixed'.

[Synovia]

The point I was trying to make is that the revelation that computers can't generate random numbers is not exactly new. I was also alluding to the fact that it is often used as positive affirmation for wild theories about 'random' elements of games supposedly being non random or 'fixed'.


Right, but there are bad random number generators, and good random number generators. We have no idea what the game is using.



On more wierdness. Lost my Wildcard game last night in Shiba. My blitz settings for my cornerbacks is 0. I haven't gone through the logs yet and counted, but they sure as hell didn't blitz zero times.

[albionmoonlight]

Right, but there are bad random number generators, and good random number generators. We have no idea what the game is using.



On more wierdness. Lost my Wildcard game last night in Shiba. My blitz settings for my cornerbacks is 0. I haven't gone through the logs yet and counted, but they sure as hell didn't blitz zero times.

Might be that a cornerback lined up in an LB slot and blitzed from there.

[Synovia]

Thats a possibility, if we're talking nickle/dime. He isn't lined up in any of the positional charts as a LB.


My only thought is that a nickleback isn't a linebacker, and shouldn't be blitzing just because a LB would have been in the same situation.


That being said, it was my #1 and #2 corner blitzing (76/76 for both of them), not the nickle or dime back.