Taking a closer look at blitzing

[primelord]

I have put together a few tables on blitzing here:

http://www.fof-research.com/research.php

For those who don't want to be troubled to click the link here are the tables. :)

Completion % Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>86.2</td><td>87.1</td><td>85.1</td><td>89.9</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>86.2</td><td>87.6</td><td>89</td><td>83.9</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>75.8</td><td>76.3</td><td>78.5</td><td>77.8</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>63.1</td><td>64.3</td><td>65.9</td><td>66.4</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>50.1</td><td>50.6</td><td>53.1</td><td>52.6</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>34.5</td><td>36.1</td><td>38.2</td><td>37.8</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>21.5</td><td>23</td><td>23.9</td><td>23.1</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>10.9</td><td>12.2</td><td>12.3</td><td>17.9</td></tr></tbody></table>

WF Avg Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>0.83</td><td>0.81</td><td>0.76</td><td>0.78</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>0.83</td><td>0.81</td><td>0.81</td><td>0.73</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>0.73</td><td>0.71</td><td>0.71</td><td>0.67</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>0.60</td><td>0.59</td><td>0.58</td><td>0.58</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.45</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.45</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>0.32</td><td>0.33</td><td>0.34</td><td>0.32</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>0.20</td><td>0.21</td><td>0.21</td><td>0.19</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>0.10</td><td>0.11</td><td>0.11</td><td>0.16</td></tr></tbody></table>

YPA Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>4.55</td><td>4.51</td><td>4.66</td><td>4.02</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>4.62</td><td>4.62</td><td>4.76</td><td>4.45</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>6.30</td><td>6.38</td><td>6.10</td><td>5.98</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>7.47</td><td>7.46</td><td>7.56</td><td>7.86</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>8.17</td><td>8.18</td><td>8.63</td><td>8.71</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>8.14</td><td>8.41</td><td>8.95</td><td>8.74</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>7.41</td><td>7.89</td><td>8.51</td><td>7.89</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>5.15</td><td>5.73</td><td>5.87</td><td>8.23</td></tr></tbody></table>

Sack % Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>3.9</td><td>7.1</td><td>10.6</td><td>13.5</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>4.1</td><td>7.6</td><td>9.2</td><td>12.6</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>3.9</td><td>7.5</td><td>9.3</td><td>13.7</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>4.4</td><td>7.7</td><td>11.6</td><td>12.5</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>6.2</td><td>10.4</td><td>12.3</td><td>14.5</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>6</td><td>9.8</td><td>12.3</td><td>15.4</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>6.2</td><td>8.5</td><td>11.5</td><td>15.7</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>6.2</td><td>9.7</td><td>10.5</td><td>9.3</td></tr></tbody></table>

Int % Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>1.3</td><td>1</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>1.2</td><td>1.1</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.4</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>1.8</td><td>1.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>0.7</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>2.9</td><td>2.9</td><td>3</td><td>1.8</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>3.9</td><td>4.2</td><td>3.4</td><td>4.7</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>5</td><td>5.1</td><td>5.6</td><td>5.6</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>5.9</td><td>5.1</td><td>6.1</td><td>6.4</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>6.8</td><td>7.6</td><td>7.9</td><td>5.1</td></tr></tbody></table>

[primelord]

For those that don't remember, WF AVG is a measure of how often the offense is "successful" on a play. Success being determined by gaining at least a certain % of yards towards a 1st down on 1st and 2nd down or successfully converting a 1st down on 3rd or 4th. So the higher the number the more successful on offense is on avg.

Just on the surface these tables usggest to me that there is not much upside overall in blitzing. I am interested to hear what everyone else thinks.

[albionmoonlight]

What are the numbers not against the blitz?

[primelord]

What are the numbers not against the blitz?

Those are covered in the 0 blitzers column :)

[MalcPow]

This is great, any numbers for running plays?

[primelord]

QuikSand suggested taking yards lost on a sack into account in the YPA tables. The WF AVG takes sacks into account, but the YPA was not giving us the whole picture. So the QuikSand Adjusted Yards Per Attempt table is born:

QSAYPA Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>4.13</td><td>3.75</td><td>3.48</td><td>2.58</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>4.17</td><td>3.78</td><td>3.71</td><td>3.11</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>5.81</td><td>5.43</td><td>4.98</td><td>4.26</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>6.86</td><td>6.40</td><td>5.94</td><td>6.09</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>7.28</td><td>6.68</td><td>6.79</td><td>6.56</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>7.27</td><td>6.97</td><td>7.09</td><td>6.46</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>6.55</td><td>6.68</td><td>6.83</td><td>5.67</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>4.45</td><td>4.55</td><td>4.62</td><td>6.92</td></tr></tbody></table>

[QuikSand]

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 253pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="337"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="3" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl22" colspan="5" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 253pt;" height="17" width="337">Prime Lord Adjusted Yield (Based on Yardage)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64"> </td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" width="81">0 Blitzers</td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" width="64">1 Blitzer</td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" width="64">2 Blitzers</td> <td class="xl23" style="border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" width="64">3 Blitzers</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Screen</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="4.1164581328200187" align="right" width="81">4.12</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="3.7469654528478062" align="right" width="64">3.75</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="3.5424954792043404" align="right" width="64">3.54</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="2.7092511013215854" align="right" width="64">2.71</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 25.5pt;" height="34"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 25.5pt; width: 48pt;" height="34" width="64">Very Short</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="4.1623439000960616" align="right" width="81">4.16</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="3.7992565055762086" align="right" width="64">3.80</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="3.7692307692307692" align="right" width="64">3.77</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="3.1687388987566609" align="right" width="64">3.17</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Short</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="5.8007699711260825" align="right" width="81">5.80</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="5.4465116279069772" align="right" width="64">5.45</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="4.9853613906678866" align="right" width="64">4.99</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="4.4160070360598063" align="right" width="64">4.42</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Medium</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="6.8601532567049812" align="right" width="81">6.86</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.4261838440111418" align="right" width="64">6.43</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.0465949820788527" align="right" width="64">6.05</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.2088888888888887" align="right" width="64">6.21</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 25.5pt;" height="34"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 25.5pt; width: 48pt;" height="34" width="64">Intermediate</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="7.2843691148775891" align="right" width="81">7.28</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">6.75</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.9180765805877122" align="right" width="64">6.92</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.72052401746725" align="right" width="64">6.72</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Long</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="7.283018867924528" align="right" width="81">7.28</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="7.0346083788706739" align="right" width="64">7.03</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="7.2030276046304529" align="right" width="64">7.20</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.6395147313691512" align="right" width="64">6.64</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Deep</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="6.5687382297551791" align="right" width="81">6.57</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.7235023041474653" align="right" width="64">6.72</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.9103139013452912" align="right" width="64">6.91</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="5.8694900605012963" align="right" width="64">5.87</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 25.5pt;" height="34"> <td class="xl23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 25.5pt; width: 48pt;" height="34" width="64">Long Bomb</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 61pt;" x:num="4.4406779661016946" align="right" width="81">4.44</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="4.6043755697356428" align="right" width="64">4.60</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="4.6470588235294121" align="right" width="64">4.65</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none; width: 48pt;" x:num="6.9341262580054899" align="right" width="64">6.93</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[QuikSand]

Damn, I just tried to do the same thing, but wanted to name the stat after PL and give it a sweet acronym. I was just counting each sack as a -7, drawing that number out of thin air.

[primelord]

There was an error is my calculation of the QSAYPA. An updated table has been posted above.

[QuikSand]

General thought -- I assume that the blitzing teams are mostly in defensive setups expecting the pass. And that 0-blitzers are a mix, but predominantly expecting the run.

We should *expect* that the defenses expecting the pass should be more effective against it, overall. I think other FOF Research efforts back this up, generally. So, to see the blitzing defenses basically the same place as the non-blitzing is telling me that maybe we are seeing two things happening... expecting the pass is improving the pass defense, but then blitzing is perhaps giving back some (or essentially all, in many cases above) of whatever that gain is.

[primelord]

Here is a look at the tables when the defense is aggressively expecting the pass.

Defense Aggressively Expects the Pass

Completion % Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>84.3</td><td>85.1</td><td>84.3</td><td>90.9</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>84.7</td><td>86.2</td><td>88.4</td><td>86.6</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>73.3</td><td>76.3</td><td>76.8</td><td>76.2</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>56.3</td><td>60.6</td><td>63.3</td><td>65.8</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>42.2</td><td>45.7</td><td>50.5</td><td>50.8</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>25.8</td><td>30.8</td><td>35</td><td>32.8</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>14.2</td><td>17.7</td><td>20.2</td><td>18.9</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>7</td><td>9.1</td><td>9.3</td><td>15.2</td></tr></tbody></table>

WF Avg Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>0.81</td><td>0.80</td><td>0.75</td><td>0.80</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>0.82</td><td>0.80</td><td>0.80</td><td>0.77</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>0.71</td><td>0.71</td><td>0.70</td><td>0.66</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>0.54</td><td>0.56</td><td>0.56</td><td>0.57</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>0.40</td><td>0.41</td><td>0.45</td><td>0.44</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>0.24</td><td>0.28</td><td>0.31</td><td>0.28</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>0.13</td><td>0.17</td><td>0.18</td><td>0.16</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>0.07</td><td>0.08</td><td>0.08</td><td>0.14</td></tr></tbody></table>

YPA Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>4.43</td><td>4.32</td><td>4.30</td><td>3.80</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>4.51</td><td>4.59</td><td>4.59</td><td>4.46</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>6.06</td><td>6.36</td><td>6.01</td><td>6.03</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>6.58</td><td>6.93</td><td>7.14</td><td>7.51</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>6.81</td><td>7.35</td><td>8.11</td><td>8.42</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>6.09</td><td>7.14</td><td>8.11</td><td>7.69</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>4.85</td><td>5.89</td><td>6.99</td><td>6.44</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>3.31</td><td>4.26</td><td>4.43</td><td>7.33</td></tr></tbody></table>

QSAYPA Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>4.03</td><td>3.63</td><td>3.16</td><td>2.57</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>4.11</td><td>3.76</td><td>3.56</td><td>3.28</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>5.63</td><td>5.50</td><td>4.95</td><td>4.39</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>6.03</td><td>6.01</td><td>5.64</td><td>5.71</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>6.03</td><td>6.07</td><td>6.54</td><td>6.59</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>5.37</td><td>5.98</td><td>6.32</td><td>5.71</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>4.16</td><td>5.08</td><td>5.44</td><td>4.50</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>2.73</td><td>3.36</td><td>3.36</td><td>5.92</td></tr></tbody></table>

Sack % Against the Blitz<table border="1"> <tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>3.6</td><td>6.6</td><td>10.7</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>3.7</td><td>7.7</td><td>9.4</td><td>11.4</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>3.4</td><td>6.8</td><td>8.8</td><td>12.9</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>4.3</td><td>7</td><td>10.9</td><td>13.3</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>6</td><td>9.5</td><td>10.9</td><td>12.6</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>5.8</td><td>8.6</td><td>12.6</td><td>14.1</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>6</td><td>6.7</td><td>11.8</td><td>15.3</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>6.1</td><td>8.6</td><td>10.2</td><td>10.7</td></tr></tbody></table>

Int % Against the Blitz <table border="1"><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>Screen</td><td>2</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.2</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Very Short</td><td>1.4</td><td>1.4</td><td>1.8</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Short</td><td>2.1</td><td>1.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>Medium</td><td>3.5</td><td>3</td><td>3.2</td><td>1.9</td></tr><tr><td>Intermediate</td><td>4.4</td><td>4.3</td><td>4.1</td><td>4.3</td></tr><tr><td>Long</td><td>5.4</td><td>5.5</td><td>5.1</td><td>5.2</td></tr><tr><td>Deep</td><td>6.5</td><td>6.6</td><td>7.1</td><td>6.6</td></tr><tr><td>Long Bomb</td><td>7.4</td><td>8</td><td>9.3</td><td>5.4</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Nogram]

Can we get some run results?

Cheers, and GREAT INFO!!!!

Nogram.

[Yoda]

Does the completion % include sacks as incompletions?

Say a QB drops back to throw a medium pass against 3 blitzers.

According to the completion % table, he will complete 65.8% of the passes.

According to the sack table, he has a 13.3% chance of being sacked.

So, in the first table, does it take into account the times he was sacked? I know for me, I would consider that as part of his completion percentage. Because I care about how many times he completes the pass as compared to how many times he threw dropped back to pass, not just how many times he actually got to throw it.

[Yoda]

If it wasn't included, then his completion percentage (that being, completions/numberofpassplays) in the given example would be closer to 58.8% instead of 65.8%.

[primelord]

I will work on getting run numbers up today.

Sacks are taken into account in WF AVG and QSAYPA. YOur point about the completion % is a good one. I will likely make that adjustment today as well.

[primelord]

Ok here is a look at some numbers against the run:

Overall <table border="1"><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>WF AVG</td><td>0.65</td><td>0.69</td><td>0.72</td><td>0.79</td></tr><tr><td>YPC</td><td>3.87</td><td>4.18</td><td>4.54</td><td>4.92</td></tr><tr><td>% 0 Gain</td><td>23.3</td><td>21.2</td><td>19.6</td><td>16.5</td></tr></tbody></table>

Defense Aggressively Expects Run <table border="1"><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>WF AVG</td><td>0.42</td><td>0.42</td><td>0.39</td><td>0.41</td></tr><tr><td>YPC</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.04</td></tr><tr><td>% 0 Gain</td><td>35.4</td><td>34.4</td><td>35</td><td>30.7</td></tr></tbody></table>

Defense Expects Run
<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>WF AVG</td><td>0.42</td><td>0.40</td><td>0.40</td><td>0.00</td></tr><tr><td>YPC</td><td>2.69</td><td>2.83</td><td>2.91</td><td>0.00</td></tr><tr><td>% 0 Gain</td><td>29.3</td><td>29.2</td><td>28.3</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>

Defense Expects Pass <table border="1"><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>WF AVG</td><td>0.82</td><td>0.83</td><td>0.79</td><td>0.80</td></tr><tr><td>YPC</td><td>4.56</td><td>4.58</td><td>4.63</td><td>4.42</td></tr><tr><td>% 0 Gain</td><td>16.8</td><td>16.9</td><td>18.3</td><td>17.9</td></tr></tbody></table>

Defense Aggressively Expects Pass <table border="1"><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>0 Blitzers</td><td>1 Blitzer</td><td>2 Blitzers</td><td>3 Blitzers</td></tr><tr><td>WF AVG</td><td>0.91</td><td>0.86</td><td>0.86</td><td>0.90</td></tr><tr><td>YPC</td><td>5.93</td><td>5.87</td><td>5.90</td><td>6.13</td></tr><tr><td>% 0 Gain</td><td>12.6</td><td>12.4</td><td>11.9</td><td>11.1</td></tr></tbody></table>

The numbers against the various defensive expectations are far more useful than the overall numbers. The overallnumbers first seem to suggest you shouldn't blitz the run. Howvere the inflated numbers are just due to the fact that in general you blitz in passing situations and you will gain more running yards when the defense expects the pass.

There does appear to be some small advantage to blitzing the run. However the difference is so small I think really it doesn't matter much whether you do or not.

[Autumn]

This is really interesting stats. It seems somewhat as expected, that blitzing produces a significantly larger number of sacks, but otherwise gives up more pass plays. The completion percentages make me not want to blitz, but it seems the adjusted yards per attempt show an overall benefit to blitzing.

What do other people get from this? I've always been surprised by how much Rex blitzes, and kind of gone along with it, figuring Rex knows best. But this confirms to me that maybe it's best not to blitz, and be consistently a bit tighter against the pass, and just hope your DL gets a good pass rush on.

[flair1234]

This is really interesting stats. It seems somewhat as expected, that blitzing produces a significantly larger number of sacks, but otherwise gives up more pass plays. The completion percentages make me not want to blitz, but it seems the adjusted yards per attempt show an overall benefit to blitzing.

What do other people get from this? I've always been surprised by how much Rex blitzes, and kind of gone along with it, figuring Rex knows best. But this confirms to me that maybe it's best not to blitz, and be consistently a bit tighter against the pass, and just hope your DL gets a good pass rush on.

My bet is if you set your blitzing percentage to low, the game puts you in punishment mode for being to predictable and starts "awarding" the other team higher yards per attempt and completion percentage.

[Yoda]

It seems like if you are expecting the pass, you are better off not blitzing. At least that is what I am getting from these numbers, anyone else see something different?

[Synovia]

It seems like if you are expecting the pass, you are better off not blitzing. At least that is what I am getting from these numbers, anyone else see something different?



What I see is that you're better of blitzing in 2nd and 8 type situations. 3rd and 15, no blitzers. It depends on whats more important to you, the completion percentage, or the gain on the play. On 3rd and 15 a sack is only marginally better than an incomplete. On 2nd and 8, a sack stops a drive, and an incomplete doesnt.

[Autumn]

<blockquote>What I see is that you're better of blitzing in 2nd and 8 type situations. 3rd and 15, no blitzers. It depends on whats more important to you, the completion percentage, or the gain on the play. On 3rd and 15 a sack is only marginally better than an incomplete. On 2nd and 8, a sack stops a drive, and an incomplete doesnt.</blockquote>

That makes sense to me. On third downs you don't want to increase their completion percentage at all. On first down a sack puts them in a precarious 2nd and long where you can expect pass and tee off. Or as you say, 2nd and 8. Still, increasing their percentage completion and YPC is a big tradeoff, even if the sacks even it out in the long run. It would be interesting to see season-long results of a blitz-heavy team versus a blitz-light one, to see if those long-term benefits outweighed the situational disadvantages (in other words, if the few 3rd and 15s you put them in outweigh the chance of giving up more first down conversions).

[Yoda]

What I see is that you're better of blitzing in 2nd and 8 type situations. 3rd and 15, no blitzers. It depends on whats more important to you, the completion percentage, or the gain on the play. On 3rd and 15 a sack is only marginally better than an incomplete. On 2nd and 8, a sack stops a drive, and an incomplete doesnt.

That makes sense to me. On third downs you don't want to increase their completion percentage at all. On first down a sack puts them in a precarious 2nd and long where you can expect pass and tee off. Or as you say, 2nd and 8. Still, increasing their percentage completion and YPC is a big tradeoff, even if the sacks even it out in the long run. It would be interesting to see season-long results of a blitz-heavy team versus a blitz-light one, to see if those long-term benefits outweighed the situational disadvantages (in other words, if the few 3rd and 15s you put them in outweigh the chance of giving up more first down conversions).

For me, I would want to go deeper than that.

Example, I would want to see controlled sets, of like 100 skilled LB's, 75, 50, 25, 0. And stuff like that.

While all these are good to help us see trends, what about players that excede a normal player?

Example, in the PFL, my SLB's pass rushing skills are 89 tech and 91 strength, since he's on the high side of the norm, how does he affect those percentages as compared to someone average and below average.

[QuikSand]

Another "though experiment" with this data set yields yet another slippery slope. Bear with me.

Since this data comes from loads of SP leagues at at least some MP leagues, it presumably has all sorts of different teams within. Presumably there are some teams in there that choose to blitz a lot, and there are some teams that don't choose to blitz all that much. Common sense dictates that the actual blitz plays are weighted more toward those teams that blitz more than others... there will just be more of their blitz plays in the mix to be counted.

Now, recalling that if we're learning anything at all about how the FOF system "thinks," it is that there are diminishing returns from just about everything in this game. The more you do the same thing over and over, the less you get out of doing more of it. Philosophically, I don't have a problem with this, I would suggest that other than matters of degree, basically nobody should.

Now - marry these two ideas together. If the blitz plays calculated in these totals are overweighted toward the teams that are blitzing a lot... and we'd expect heavy-blitzing teams to see less success from each blitz play called... then in theory this is yet another way of depressing the apparent effectiveness of blitz plays, according to these stats. We should *expect* there to be a bias in this sort of calculation simply due to the nature of the diminishing returns that we agree is in the game.

I have no clue how significant this bias might be, but I reckon it's in there.

[Yoda]

I guess, but when you look at a real NFL, like the Eagles or Ravens that blitz pretty much on every play (isn't that what a 3-4 is for, to blitz one LB every down?), it doesn't translate into that.

ah well, can't have everything.

[Sgran]

There is one thing about the data that bothers me: aren't screen passes designed to make the defense pay for bringing the house? Sending 7 guys at the QB should create a garden of eden for running backs in the flats. Remember how the Pats made the Eagles pay in the Super Bowl for sending the house? Maybe this is where we see the bug related to yards after catch manifest itself.

[Autumn]

Yes, ideally I would think you'd want to see the long ball percentages go down, but screen pass percentages and YPC go up. Although without seeing individual plays I guess we can't know exactly what's happening. Perhaps the blitz is giving up the occasional long ball, but hurrying more passes.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

It doesn't change my main rule. If you're LBs aren't studs at pass rush, don't blitz much.

[Leonidas]

I haven't narrowed tests as specifically as this, but I have done tests with defenses that overall blitz a whole lot versus lower blitz settings and the pass defense and overall defense almost always suffer overall when I set high blitz ratings. And usually the defense gives up 1-2 points a game more over 20 season test runs. That's with the 4-3. I've never tested a 3-4 which may make a big difference as the 3-4 is designed to be a blitzing defense. Would love to see someone study a 3-4 vs a 4-3 with various blitz settings. Intuitively you'd think a 3-4 with no blitzers would be terrible.

[QuikSand]

Since it's being brought up... I think "blitz" as defined in FOF 2007 does not include the weak-side linebacker in a 3-4 defense. That linebacker is part of the standard pass rush, not a blitzer.