NCAA Tournament Discussion Thread [Archive] - Front Office Football Central

Marmel

03-08-2003, 10:41 PM

UConn just moved off teh bubble and into the tournament with a big win at Boston.

Seton Hall is NIT bound after now losing two in a row.

BC is clearly a bubble team now.

My Big East analysis:

IN:
Syracuse and Pitt, cleary the class of the BE. One should be a 2 seed, the other a 3. Outside shot for one of them to get a 1 seed.

Notre Dame and UConn, the next best 2. UConn more dangerous, but also more inconsistant. I would say UConn will be around a 6 seed, and ND maybe a 4 or 5 seed.

BC, Bubble team, but I would think the Big East could manage 5 bids. They simply must win their first game of the Big East tourney. I would say a 8/9 seed.

Seton Hall. Fell off the bubble today, but if they could get three wins in the Big East tournament, they might work their way back in. Huge uphill climb.

Villanova. Self-destruction. 7 players suspended for tomorrows game? NIT bound.

Radii

03-08-2003, 10:43 PM

Kentucky and Arizona appear to be a class above the rest of the nation still, I don't see anyone beating them.

Other random stuff:

NC State was *this* close to beating both Maryland and Wake Forest in their last two games. Now that they blew them both, they probably need to make the ACC finals to have a chance at getting in. 9-7 in the ACC is nothing to sneeze at, but I dunno, those non conference losses are scary.

#1 seeds at this point IMO are Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas and Florida. The SEC and Big 12 tournaments will have a lot to say about that though. Texas and Oklahoma could also get the #1s but at this moment that's my 4.

My guess is mid-majors are going to get a lot of props by the selection comittee after all the press, at the expense of the NC States and Seton Halls of the power conference.

Oh, and the Big East will get punished for following John Thompson's tradition and not scheduling a single top 100 team in non conference play(Notre Dame excluded).

bigdawg2003

03-08-2003, 10:47 PM

I think Texas defeating OU and Florida losing to Kentucky will put UT at #1 and Florida at #2 barring any upsets.

GoldenEagle

03-08-2003, 10:49 PM

I dont see Nova accepting an NIT bid.

I don't think Kentucky and Arizona are that much better than the rest of the field. I could see both them getting upset and not making the Final 4.

I think the Illini and Wisconsin could be March Monsters and both have a shot at the final 4.

I think Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are all overrated. The Big 12 is overrated this year.

I think you also have to watch out for C-USA darlings Memphis and Marquette. Cincy could be tough if they can find out how to hit an open shot.

HornedFrog Purple

03-08-2003, 10:56 PM

C-USA:

Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis will get in.

Bubbles I think are St. Louis and UAB depending how far they can go in the tournament.

#1 seeds: Texas/Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona and Pitt

GoldenEagle

03-08-2003, 11:04 PM

I think St. Louis and UAB are NIT bound unless they win the tournament. Memphis beat UAB by 11 at UAB and was up by 24 with two minutes to go.

I think it will be a Memphis-Marquette match up in the final and it will be a dandy. An instant classic.

Radii

03-08-2003, 11:29 PM

Pitt is the single most overrated team in the country IMO. No way they get a #1 :) I can see Florida not getting one definitely... but if they make the SEC finals only to lose to Kentucky again, I dunno... honestly the only teams I feel in contention for #1 seeds right now are Arizona, Kentucky, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. Anyone outside of them getting a #1 would be a *huge* shock.

Pitt is probably a #2, the two listed above that don't get #1s are probably #2s. The ACC tournament champion is probably the final #2, if it's Wake Forest definitely, Duke/Maryland probably.

I don't see the big 12 being overrated either, those top 3 teams deserve their rankings. I think the SEC as a whole is overrated, though Kentucky is probably the best team in the country at this moment, I really don't know what to think of Florida.

Marmel

03-08-2003, 11:43 PM

Interesting that Pitt is being talked about as a outside #1 seed, without mentioning Syracuse, who split with them, and actually has the #1 seed in the Big East conference. Syracuse had some nice out of conference scheduling this season: at Michigan St. (sure, they are not as great, but still solid, and at their house is always a tought place to play), Memphis on a neutral court (an NCAA team) and at home against Missouri (#11 at the time, a tourney team and made last year's Elite 8.)

Syracuse's only losses are to: Pitt on the road, UConn on the road, Memphis neutral court (1st game of the season), and 1 pretty bad loss at the RAC against Rutgers. They swept Notre Dame, beat Pitt, Missou, MSU, Seton Hall Twice, and Boston College. They also schedule and beat one of those mid-majors that people always say big conference teams always avoid, Valpo.

With Carmelo Anthony not only the Freshman of the Year in the country, he is arguably the most talented player in the country and can carry a team on his back during a tough stretch of a game. The team is pretty young, and you can see them get better and better every single game. I know youth is not usually served in the NCAA's, but this team has a bit of a different make up for a team with a lot of youth. Obviously Anthony is well beyond his year, as the sharpshooter, Gerry McNamara. Bille Edelin may be a freshman, but is 20 years old and has been aroudn the program for 2 years before finally getting to play. Hakim Warrick is one of the most improved players in the country, and the scouts coming to see Anthony have really noticed Hakim as a legit NBA prospect. Keuth Duany's brother, Duany Duany took his Wisonsin team to the Final 4 when he was a senior. Something to think about.

As for weak out of conference ooponents for the Big East, all teams play cupcakes. Here are some BE teams and their OOC teams they played:

UCOnn: GW, Vandy, UMass, Oklahoma, North Carolina
G'Town: Duke, UCLA (OK, who knew they would be this bad)
Miami: Florida
Notre Dame: Marquette, Maryland, Texas, DePaul, Vandy, Kentucky
Pitt: Georgia
Providence: Alabama
Rutgers: Texas, Depaul, Louisville, Manhattan
St. John's: Texas, Manhattan, UCLA, Duke
Nova: Marquette, Temple, MSU, Dayton, Memphis
West Virginia beat Florida

Compare that to the almighty ACC:

Duke: G'town (questioanble), St. John's, UCLA
Maryland: Indiana, Florida
Wake: St. John's, Marquette

I got tired of looking at the ACC teams, but took the top three. Not really a load of OOC legit teams there.

GoldenEagle

03-09-2003, 12:03 AM

I think it is a bit of an understatement to call Memphis just an NCAA team. Afterall, they are the #18 team in the country, have won 11 straight, and have just been punishing opponents as of late.

I think they are deserving of a #3 seed if they win the C-USA tournament.

Also Marquette has been discussed as a possible #1 seed.

Airhog

03-09-2003, 12:18 AM

I think Texas probably deserves a number one seed after beating OU today, I dont think kansas deserves one, however anything could happen in the tournament, and there is still time for one team to grab one.

bigdawg2003

03-09-2003, 12:24 AM

Airhog

How comes Texas deserves a #1 but Kansas doesn't, even though Kansas beat Texas? Hey, I'm a longhorn fan, but I think if Texas gets a #1, Kansas gets one too. Same with Zona.

thesurreallife

03-09-2003, 12:41 AM

C-USA
------------------------
Marquette #2 seed
Memphis #5
Louisville #6
Cinci #10

Bubble (probably need to get to the conference final)
St Louis
Depaul

UAB no way - lousy RPI/Schedule

check out this great RPI site by the way

www.teamrankings.com

Radii

03-09-2003, 01:15 AM

Nov 23 Duquesne W 82-67
Nov 27 St. Francis-PA W 69-46
Nov 30 Ark-Pine Bluff W 89-49
Dec 3 Norfolk St W 96-51
Dec 7 @ Penn State W 82-60
Dec 14 SE Louisiana W 89-55

That's Pitt's first 6 games. Nothing there to command respect really. RPI wise, Syracuse and Notre Dame are slightly higher than Duke and Wake, and after looking at all their numbers, I bet Pitt gets a #3 or #4 and Syracuse gets equal or better. But no one is saying that an ACC team deserves a #1 seed either :)

As for UConn, the UMass loss is considered a bad one. At least, when people talk about why NC State won't make the dance, UMass is always listed as one of their Bad Losses. And of course, UConn losing to UNC is probably considered a bad loss too(I say probably because UNC's RPI is in the 50s, but they're clearly not that good a team this year).

SackAttack

03-09-2003, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by bigdawg2003
Airhog

How comes Texas deserves a #1 but Kansas doesn't, even though Kansas beat Texas? Hey, I'm a longhorn fan, but I think if Texas gets a #1, Kansas gets one too. Same with Zona.

Well, heck, if the Colorado Buffaloes make the field, give them a #1 seed too. They beat Kansas AND Texas, after all.

:D

Radii

03-09-2003, 01:21 AM

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology/index.html

That's also a week out of date, new one will come out Monday. It has Syracuse a #2, Pitt/Notre Dame and Wake/Duke as the 4 #3s. I still think if Wake or Duke wins the ACC tournament they probably get a #2 in the east, but so much can change during touranments next week, who knows. They also have Marquette/Kansas/Oklahoma as the other #2s, Texas a #1.

Memphis is listed as a 6 seed.

henry296

03-09-2003, 01:23 AM

Some random musings on this topic. By the way, I love March.

Maryland also played Notre Dame.

Pitt doesn't deserve a #1 because they had a very week OOC schedule. However, I am not sure they are overrated. They are a very balanced team with great team defense. They could really frustrate a lot of the top teams.

My #1s as of now are UK, UA, TX and Probably FL
#2 are OU, KS, Pitt, Marquette.

Of course conference tourneys will change that.

The committee doesn't use head to head so that won't be a factor between Kansas and Texas. That game was pretty close and in Kansas.

Let me give some props to my alma mater the Penn Quakers. They have solid wins over Temple, at Villanova and at USC. If they shot the three well, they could pull a first round upset. I think they are most likely a 12 seed and are on a 14 game winning streak and one of 3 teams to be unbeaten in their conference. Of course it all depends on the matchup.

Todd

SplitPersonality1

03-09-2003, 01:33 AM

Over in the Horizon league, you have a couple of teams that could pull first round upsets. Both Butler and Wisconsin-Milwaukee have looked very good all season.

They play each other in the Conference Championship on Tuesday - should be a very good game. There is a small (very small) chance that the loser of the game will get an at-large bid and both teams make the NCAA's.

dacman

03-09-2003, 02:12 AM

Big Ten analysis:

Illinios and Wisconsin are locks, but probably can't get better than a 3 seed. I like Illinios to make some postseason noise.

Purdue and Michigan State are likely in. I don't see MSU making a run (mediocre guard play, no true point), Purdue could be a dark horse because of their depth (they usually go 10-11 deep).

Indiana was in, but is now a slight bubble team with the loss to Penn State (8-8 conf. record). They'd be a really special team if JJ had stuck around. Oh well.

Minnesota is sitting on a huge bubble. They probably have to win tomorrow (at Illinios) and then win at least 1 probably 2 more in the Big Ten tournament. I don't see it happening, but anything's possible.

Iowa and Ohio State are NIT bound.

Michigan (probation), Northwestern, and Penn State will be watching at home.

Seed predictions:
(3) Illinios
(4) Wisconsin
(7) Purdue
(8) Mich St.
(10) Indiana

IMetTrentGreen

03-09-2003, 05:20 AM

[quote]How comes Texas deserves a #1 but Kansas doesn't, even though Kansas beat Texas? Hey, I'm a longhorn fan, but I think if Texas gets a #1, Kansas gets one too. Same with Zona.[\quote]

henry already said it . . . but the committee won't use head to head. if they did, you could make a case for youngstown state being #1 from the chain of team a beat team b who beat team c and so on. basketball doesn't work that way, no sport does. good teams lose.

the game was close, and in kansas, and texas has had the better season. right now they are one of the best 4 teams in the country, and deserve a #1 seed

and as good as carmelo anthony has been, no one is better than tj ford. isaiah thomas 2. he singlehandedly brought us back from 15 down in the second half, on the #5 teams home floor, on senior day

Havok

03-09-2003, 05:39 AM

I just hope my Terpies get to the sweet 16 again. If Chris Wilcox would have stayed (which would have been the smart thing to do and now he regrets going pro) we'd be repeatin!!!!

Were gonna be rebuilding a little next year but we got a couple Freshman who look every promising and he did very well recruting this year also.

digamma

03-09-2003, 06:40 AM

henry,
I was going to ask you about Penn. I think they can get a 12 seed if they beat Princeton next week. Hopefully they will win a game or two to represent the Ivies well. Harvard will have to settle for the women's title again (though we could get as high as a 12 in that bracket). The men's team has still finished no higher than 3rd in the Ivies, ever.

I actually think Wake Forest can get the 4th number one if they win the ACC tournament and Texas and Kentucky win their respective conference tournaments. Syracuse would have a shot at it as well.

Radii

03-09-2003, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by digamma

I actually think Wake Forest can get the 4th number one if they win the ACC tournament and Texas and Kentucky win their respective conference tournaments. Syracuse would have a shot at it as well.

I don't think Wake has the resume of a #1 seed. As long as an Oklahoma/Kansas/Florida make their conference finals, even if they lose to Texas/Kentucky, I think one of them gets the #1 seed, even if Syracuse and/or Wake Forest win their conference tourneys.

Syracuse might have a shot at a #1 if there are a bunch of big 12 upsets.

IMO, if the ACC comes otu of the ACC tournament with a dominant tournament winner, they can get a #2 seed, but it's still quite possible no ACC team gets above a #3.

cheese

03-09-2003, 10:37 AM

dacman, i also hope that Illinois gets deep into the tourney, but i'm a little worried about their experience. dee brown and deron williams are both freshman in the backcourt, and james augustine ( another freshman) get lots of minutes and sometimes starts. then again, experience hasn't been too much of a problem in the past this season, and they do have Cook, so hopefully that'll be enough.

lynchjm24

03-09-2003, 11:08 AM

Love Big East Talk:

Syracuse - easily the top BE team. Anthony is the best player in the conference. If they sweep through NY - a 2 seed. If not 3.

Pittsburgh - overrated maybe, but still very dangerous. 3 seed.

Notre Dame - peaked to early - 5 seed.

Connecticut - could lose by 30 in the first round or could go to the Elite 8. Seed dependent on NY. 7-10 seed.

BC - as of right now, still in. Won't do much anyway. 11-12 seed.

Big East Tourney Sleeper - Georgetown.

This year more then ever it's a total crapshoot. Plus, there isn't going to be one team that doesn't get in that can make a legitimate case. If NC State, Texas Tech and Alabama don't get in - they don't deserve to be in anyway.

korme

03-09-2003, 11:26 AM

If the Bearcats lose to UAB and get out of the conference tourney fast, I am not sure if they will make the tourney :(. Damn C-USA getting all tough. I don't like it at all.

illinifan999

03-09-2003, 12:16 PM

IF Illinois stays consistant they could be real contenders. But if they don't then they are screwed.

I think that the MVC will send at least two teams. I think Creighton and SIU might get bids even if they don't win the conference tourney.

Craptacular

03-09-2003, 12:28 PM

I think the Big XII teams' seeds will depend on the conference tourney. Assuming Kansas beats Missouri, they are the outright Big XII champions.

RPI as of Mar 2:
1. Arizona
2. Kentucky
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida
6. Georgia
7. Marquette
8. Kansas
9. Syracuse
10. Notre Dame

Kansas plays Missouri (18-8) and beat Texas Tech (16-11)
Texas beat Kansas St (13-16) and Oklahoma (21-6)
Oklahoma beat Nebraska (11-18) and lost to Texas (22-5).

Florida may drop after losing to Georgia and Kentucky ... two damn good teams, but 2 losses nonetheless. The RPI is 50% SOS though, and theirs will move way up from #51.

Sorry Georgia, you have 8 losses, and ain't getting a #1 seed even if you win the SEC tourney.

Kansas could pass Marquette in this week's RPI.

Arizona and Kentucky are pretty much locks for #1 seeds. If Kansas wins the Big XII tourney as well, I don't think you could take Texas as a #1 and not Kansas (although I could see BOTH as #1s, especially if they meet in the Big XII finals).

Oklahoma, Florida, Marquette, and Syracuse all need to win their tourneys and get some help.

thesurreallife

03-09-2003, 01:19 PM

Updated RPI

http://teamrankings.com/ncb/8powerratings.php3

GoldenEagle

03-09-2003, 01:54 PM

Anyone still think Pitt is deserving a number 1 seed?

Vilinova had 7 dressed players and almost beat them.

Pitt is the most overrated team in the country.

Craptacular

03-09-2003, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by thesurreallife
Updated RPI

http://teamrankings.com/ncb/8powerratings.php3

Too bad it doesn't include today's Georgia, Kansas, and Syracuse games.

ice4277

03-09-2003, 02:57 PM

Time to take a look at the most underrated conference in America, the MAC:

It looks doubtful that the MAC will get more than one team in the tournament. The only way I can see the MAC getting an at-large bid is if my alma mater, Central Michigan, loses in the conference championship game. Even then it may still be a longshot. However the Chippewas will be the strong favorite going into the conference tournament having won the regular season in an often dominating manner. Kent State rebounded after making the Elite Eight and losing a coach, winning the East Division. But as usual parity rules in the MAC and I wouldn't be surprised if anybody with the exception of Buffalo made a run through to the final. A couple teams such as Akron and Eastern Michigan are hot right now and could pull off a couple upsets. In the end, though, I think we'll see the Chippewas edge past the Red Hawks of Miami and cruise into the NCAA's (gee who could have seen that prediction coming ;) ). Regardless of who goes, though, there is a heavy chance that they will pull off an upset or two, especially if they come out of that always-dangerous 12 seed, which looks likely.

thesurreallife

03-09-2003, 03:38 PM

teamrankings.com updates every night so they are more up to date than the others. Hopefully they will update soon.
I am anxious to see the changes now

Airhog

03-09-2003, 04:15 PM

Lets look at Kansas OU and Texas, and see who they lost too this year.

OU
Alabama
Mississippi St.
Oklahoma st.
Texas
Missouri
Texas

Texas
Notre Dame
Arizona
Kansas
Colorado
Oklahoma State

Kansas
North Carolina
Florida
Oregon
Colorado
Arizona
Oklahoma

Now then lets look at the losses, and where these teams are at now.

OU
Alabama - Unranked in ethier poll. They are 17-10
Mississippi St. - Ranked 21 in coaches poll, and 23 in AP 18-7 record
Oklahoma St. - Ranked 18 in the Coaches Poll and 20 in the AP
Missouri - Recived votes in both polls 18-8 record.

Texas
Notre Dame - 16th in coaches poll and AP poll a 21-7 record.
Colorado - Not in the AP or Coaches poll 19-10 record.

Kansas
North Carolina - 15-14 Team
Oregon - Recieved a few votes in both polls, around 33rd if it was extended. 20-9 record. middle of their conference.

Ou has lost to 1 unranked team, 3 teams ranked 15+ and 2 teams ranked top ten

Texas has lost to 1 unranked team 2 teams ranked 15+ and 2 teams ranked Top ten

Kansas has lost to 1 unranked team, 1 team ranked 25+ and 3 teams in the top 10

Lets also look at the record for each school at the time they played them.

OU
Top 5 record
1-1
Top 10 record
1-2
Top 25 record
4-5
Unranked Record
17-1

Texas
Top 5 record
2-1
Top Ten Record
3-2
Top Twenty 25 Record
5-2
Unranked record
17-3

Kansas
Top 5 Record
1-2
Top 10 Record
1-4
Top 25 Record
4-4
Unranked Record
20-2

Now looking at the whole data, Ou has faired okay in their two top 5 games and are 1-1, Texas has the best record at 2-1 andKansas has played poorly against top 10 teams, only beating Texas.

When it comes to top 25 teams OU has a 4-5 record, Texas has the best record at 5-2 and kansas has a 4-4 record.

Now Ou does have the best record against unranked teams, finishing 17-1, Texas has the worst record finshing 17-3 and kansas has finished 20-2.

One last bit of data, in the top 25 polls Ou has never been lower than 10. Texas has never been lower than 10, only kansas has been out of the top ten, and spent 12 weeks ranked 10th or higher.

So what does all this data mean? A whole lot of nothing if ya ask me. There is no clearcut team that is heads and shoulders above the rest to get one of those number 1 spots. If the tournament started tomorrow, I would have to say that Texas would get my vote for one of the number 1 seeds. They have beat more quality teams, and lost to less quality teams. Even though they lost too 3 teams that were ranked at the time, two of them have proved they are pretty decent ballclubs. On the other hand kansas lost too a team that barely finished with a winning record, and probably needs a miracle to make the tournament. Ou is a strong contender, and had they beaten Texas, I would have picked them instead.

One thing that remains to be seen, is how these teams fair in the big12 tournament. 2 years in a row OU has won the tournament. Look for a possible 3rd texas-ou game in the semifinals, and a kansas-texas or Ou final. I think whoever goes deepest into the tournament should get the number 1 seed.

GoldenEagle

03-09-2003, 06:56 PM

I agree, I think if one of UT, KU, or OU win the Big 12 they will be a #1 seed.

Vince

03-09-2003, 07:02 PM

How 'bout them Gauchos? :D

Big West Analysis: (;))

Gauchos win the tournament, go dancing. Slated to be a 15 seed by ESPN last week, a three game win streak and solid play might move the Gauchos up to a 13 seed, but either way they will be hard pressed to pull an upset. But for a team that was still in the game against Arizona with a minute to play last year, anything is possible.

They clinched the Big West title outright yesterday, and they have a really good chance of making it through the Big West tournament, so I think my Gauchos will make the tournament for the second straight year. Whether or not we upset someone...that I'll just hope for.

GoldenEagle

03-09-2003, 07:06 PM

It just depends on who they draw. If I am 14 or 15 seed, im looking to draw Pitt. Its obvious they have weak links and can get beat early.

Radii

03-09-2003, 07:06 PM

totally unrelated to the tournament itself but I don't relaly wanna start a new thread.

HOW BOUT THEM TAR HEELS. OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG.

:)

Vince

03-09-2003, 07:10 PM

Well, to tell you the truth, the other team that looks to get a decent to good seed that I think could be ousted early is Louisville. They have been ridiculously inconsistent the last few weeks, and I think that an emotional Gaucho squad coming off success in the Big West tourney and looking for revenge for the almost-upset of Arizona last year can knock them off.

mrushh

03-09-2003, 07:37 PM

HF P, real men may not watch Women Hoops, but TCU Lady Frogs won C-USA Tournament today (on ESPN2) to make the Women's 64 bracket.

SplitPersonality1

03-11-2003, 06:58 PM

The University Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers may be the next team to get to the big dance. Woo-hoo. They lead Butler 38-20 at the half.

I realize that no one cares about this team, but it will be the first time that the Panthers will be in the NCAAs.

Go Panthers!

Edit: They win it! Alright Panthers!

Superman=#54

03-11-2003, 07:15 PM

A tournament without the Gonzaga Bulldogs??

Who knows right now they are on the bubble after being upsetted by San Diego. Personally, I don't think they get in as their biggest win was against Utah.

Another team that has a shot at receiving an automatic bid to the tourney are the Valporaiso Crusaders. They still have to knock off IUPUI. But, they have a complete team lead by Wayne Gomes and the new Coach Drew.

Out of the Big Ten I really like Wisconsin coached by Bo Ryan. They may be one of the surprise Elite 8 teams. They are so fundamentally sound on defense they are almost as good as Kentucky on defense.

wade moore

03-11-2003, 07:29 PM

I can't wait to see who UNC-W upsets this year..

Of course, I'm marking out for the CAA where my W&M Tribe hail from.. but man.. to see Brett Blizzard in person.. when he wants to, he can hit from anywhere under any defense.. it's amazing..

Craptacular

03-12-2003, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by SplitPersonality1
The University Wisconsin-Milwaukee ...

I realize that no one cares about this team, but it will be the first time that the Panthers will be in the NCAAs.

Now all I need is a 4th team for my Final 4 picks and I'm set. :) How about Utah or St Louis? Then we can at least have an ex-Badger or Marquette coach.

GoldenEagle

03-12-2003, 12:13 AM

Who is your Final Four?

Craptacular

03-12-2003, 12:26 AM

Marquette
Wisconsin
Wisconsin - Milwaukee
TBA

Of course, a Ronco Food Dehydrator infomercial would get higher national ratings than that Final 4.

MylesKnight

03-12-2003, 12:29 AM

The Big Dance??

Hey it's all about the Troy State University Trojans & the Atlantic Sun Conference!!!

Also, on a much more important note, look for the 21-11 Golden Knights of the University of Central Florida to grab an NIT Bid for the A-Sun as well..

It's all about the Atlantic Sun Baby!!!

JeeberD

03-12-2003, 12:50 AM

UTEP (6-22) took their first step towards the NCAA tournament tonight be beating San Jose St in the WAC tournament play-in game tonight...

They will beat #1 seed Tulsa in their next game and wind up winning the WAC tournament. They'll make it into the Big Dance as a #16 seed and make history by being the first sixteen seed to win a game. They will then sweep through the tournament and make history again my becoming the first NCAA champion to have a losing record!

Well, a man can dream, can't he???

MylesKnight

03-12-2003, 12:54 AM

Hey Jeeber, just look at it this way...

...One Down... and Nine to go for the Miners!! :D

Hey, if you have some inside info go ahead and put some $$ down on UTEP.. Word is a $5 bet on the Miners to win the whole thing would pay enough to buy the Yankees from Steinbrenner. :D

GoldenEagle

03-12-2003, 07:45 AM

Wow, now that is alot of money.

Samdari

03-12-2003, 10:37 AM

Great thread. I love this time of year.

Jeeber - wow that's a dream. I dream of bedding Kirsten Dunst, and think my chances are better than yours. Of course, Vegas won't post odds, so I could be wrong.

As far as the #1 seeds, Arizona and KU would still be so, even if they lose in their conf tournament first rounds. I think the other two would be out of the Big 12. If Kansas and Texas meet in the finals of their tourney, they are slam dunks. If OK makes it and loses, I am not so sure they get one.

I think Syracuse is the most likely team to jump in and get the last one if the Big 12 does not get two. I think the most important criterion is still "quality" wins, and SU is tied for second with 8 (behind UK's whopping 12) among eligible teams. If they win the BE tourney (a must for the #1) they will have won 10 straight, including two top quality road wins, and two top quality (most likely Pitt and UConn) neutral site wins.

Marquette and Wake Forest are are the only other real contenders for a top seed, and I think that the lack of depth in their respective conferences (relative to the very top ones of course) will keep them from being seriously considered. If a lot of things happen elsewhere, I guess either could fall in.

That said, I really think that there would need to be two of three very good Big 12 teams losing in the first round for them not to get the last two spots. If that happens and SU wins the BE, they probably get it. If SU falters, Marquette would be next, again needing to win their tourney. If neither of them makes it, perhaps you see Wake.

Pittsburgh is an interesting case. They don't have any players who ever make you think "wow, that guy is awesome" except perhaps Julius Page, and that is as an athlete more than a basketball player. But, they are near the top of the country in FG% both on offense and defense. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and watching them play it is obvious that they have a high shooting percentage because they take good shots on every possession. They are not a particularly good outside shooting team (other than Zavackas) but shoot a high percentage because they work their way into so many shots close in. Probably the best coached team in the country. However, their pathetic noncon schedule means they have no shot at a #1. I would pick them as a dangerous threat to make the final four, except what happened Sunday against Nova is going to happen in the tourney, causing them to bow out early. They were clearly a superior team to Nova, but missed enough foul shots to let them back into the game. That will kill them in the tourney.

I was happy to see UWM win last night. I think they are a tournament caliber team, but think they would have been left out had they not won. It is going to be a long rest of the week for Butler. I think they'll get in though.

Go Miners! Keep the dream alive.

Butter

03-12-2003, 01:35 PM

I know no one likes to talk up the Atlantic 10, but Dayton, Xavier, and St. Joe's are all legitimate threats to go to the Sweet 16. If Dayton loses to Xavier in the A-10 final, though, I don't think they'll make it past the 1st round, after losing to their rivals 3 times in a year for the second straight year.

Go Flyers!

Vince

03-12-2003, 01:51 PM

Anyone see the end of the IUPUI-Valparaiso game yesterday? Amazing finish...

Samdari

03-13-2003, 10:45 AM

Butter

I think that Dayton, Xavier and St Joe's are alll very good. I would not be surprised to see any of them in the sweet 16. This is the week to discuss seeds and bubbles though, not necesarily advancement. How far teams make it is too tied to what bracket they are in.

Xavier and Dayton, for example are in the 3,4,5 seed range. I like Xavier to go quite far, unless of course they get a 4 and play Kentucky or Arizona in the sweet 16.

Craptacular

03-13-2003, 06:25 PM

Wow, UCLA upset 'Zona in the Pac-10 quarterfinals! It certainly won't cost Arizona a #1 seed, but may cost them their spot at the top of the polls (unless Kentucky chokes as well).

Marmel

03-13-2003, 06:57 PM

That leaves UCLA 2 games from the tournament. Scary.

Chief Rum

03-13-2003, 07:01 PM

Marmel, as a UCLA fan, all I can say is "very scary".

Chief Rum

Craptacular

03-13-2003, 08:43 PM

UAB beat Marquette??? They had a very slim shot at a #1 seed; now, they have to hope they don't fall to a 4. I think they're safe with a #3, but you never know.

GoldenEagle

03-13-2003, 09:44 PM

Marquette is a 3.

I was hoping they would win so Memphis could possibly face them in the final.

Memphis can probbaly hope for a 3 or 4 seed now.

SplitPersonality1

03-13-2003, 11:39 PM

If Marquette is a 3 seed (and I think it's very likely), Memphis will be a 4 or possibly a 5. I don't think the selection committee would seed Memphis as high as Marquette. Stranger things have happened, but I think it is unlikely.

A 3 seed means the commitee thinks the team should be ranked 9-12. Marquette fis in there even with the loss. Is Memphis top 12? Probably not. Even if they win the C-USA tourney.

Marmel

03-13-2003, 11:42 PM

Back to the Big East......

All 4 teams with byes in the conference tourney advanced today.

I would say UConn looked the best doing it.

Pitt should beat BC, unless Bell just goes off.

Syracuse/Uconn is interesting. Cuse has nobody to stop Gordon and Okafor on defense. UConn has nobody to stop Warrick/Anthony. I expect it to be a game where the last team with the ball wins.

JeeberD

03-14-2003, 12:45 AM

Ummm, never mind that UTEP dream of mine. Tulsa woke me up quite harshly tonight...

Craptacular

03-14-2003, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by SplitPersonality1

A 3 seed means the commitee thinks the team should be ranked 9-12. Marquette fis in there even with the loss. Is Memphis top 12? Probably not. Even if they win the C-USA tourney.

Well, Stanford's and ND's losses help. I also forgot that Georgia can be taken out of the equation. Depending on how 'Cuse, Wake, and Florida fare, Marquette is likely a 3, maybe even still a 2.

MylesKnight

03-14-2003, 11:41 AM

Does the Mountain West get 3?

Utah and BYU are in..

UNLV & Wyoming have a shot.. The Pokes were knocked out of the MWC Tourney yesterday by Colorado State, but the Runnin' Rebs are still alive..

They play Utah tonight in the Semis in Vegas.. Nice having the Tourney on your home floor isn't it UNLV? Won't be the case next year though as the MWC Tourney moves to Denver.

If UNLV beats Utah, do they get the bid even though they finished behind and were swept by Wyoming this season? Or do the Pokes somehow still get a bid if UNLV doesn't win the MWC Tourney?

Butter

03-14-2003, 01:25 PM

No way either Wyoming or UNLV get in without winning the conference tourney.

Is it just me, or does it seem like UNLV is in this situation every year? They're 18-10 or 20-9 or some such, and make it to the semis or finals, but don't make it. Not this year either.

How about 'Bama after being embarrassed by Vandy? I say "no". Strength of schedule or not, you were sub-.500 in conference (in the weak half of the conference at that), and lost to the worst team in the thing.

Marmel

03-14-2003, 01:43 PM

I don't think Alabama should get in.

I also think the NCAA still holds a grudge against UNLV. Again, they probably will not get in without winning their tournament, but this year it is because they do not deserve it.

Radii

03-14-2003, 01:56 PM

I agree, Alabama killed their chances by blowing their 1st round game.

MylesKnight

03-14-2003, 02:50 PM

Let me be the second to agree with you about Alabama..

First off, I am a big proponent of teams not going at least .500 in their Conference getting a bid.. I don't care what Conference you play in or how difficult it is, those are just the breaks.. If you can't win at least half of your in-league games, you shouldn't get an invite.

Also, in Bama's case, should a team that has only won 5 of their last 14 games, and in the First Round of their Conference Tournament lost to a team that had lost 9 straight games, be considered?

"What you've done lately" is supposed to be an important factor in the criteria the selection committee uses.. We'll find out just how important it really is in this case..

Alabama - You've earned an NIT Bid!! Let's see if you get what you deserve.

MylesKnight

03-14-2003, 03:02 PM

DOLA POST!!! :D

Now I know this is a NCAA Tournament Discussion Thread, but here is an "entertaining" article about a few schools we certainly won't see among the field of 65 that will be announced Sunday..

Enjoy!!! (http://www.courier-journal.com/cjsports/news2003/03/14/sp031403s380622.htm) :D

Radii

03-14-2003, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Radii
totally unrelated to the tournament itself but I don't relaly wanna start a new thread.

HOW BOUT THEM TAR HEELS. OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG.

:)

Once again. HOW BOUT THEM TAR HEELS. I don't have any visions of them winning the ACC tournament or anything just yet, but that was a great great half of basketball they just played against Maryland. Wonder how much that hurts Maryland. Probably makes them a 5 seed at best.

In other ACC news, does Minnesota choking + Alabama choking + NC State making the ACC semis solidify their NCAA bid? If they can upset Wake tomorrow they're definitely in, if not... I still think they've got a shot but certainly no lock.

Another interesting scenario. Can Texas Tech make the NCAAs if they make the Big 12 finals, but don't win? Or is 6-10 just too bad in conference to get them an at-large no matter what?

HornedFrog Purple

03-14-2003, 08:48 PM

I don't get why no one thinks Pitt should be a #1 seed. They have a solid ballclub with 6 guys averaging double digits and they play great defense. Knight just hurt his ankle though. The only thing that trips them up is their free throw shooting which may be their undoing, but with Knight healthy they are a final 4 team in my opinion.

UAB is a pretty good club, I saw them in Fort Worth. If they win tonight and reach the finals they might get a bid. St. Louis is a bubble team likewise who they are playing.

bosshogg23

03-14-2003, 09:08 PM

I think NC State is in at this point.

A question for everyone, would Michigan, if eligible, make the tournament this year? They are 17-12(pending the result of the Indiana game), have an RPI of 59, finished 3rd in the Big 10 but beat basically no one ranked. I imagine they would be a bubble team that needs to beat IU and if they did, then beat Illinois to guarantee a spot. Hypothetically of course......illegal beneifts and all.

Radii

03-14-2003, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by HornedFrog Purple
I don't get why no one thinks Pitt should be a #1 seed. They have a solid ballclub with 6 guys averaging double digits and they play great defense. Knight just hurt his ankle though. The only thing that trips them up is their free throw shooting which may be their undoing, but with Knight healthy they are a final 4 team in my opinion.

They may well be a final four team but they haven't earned a #1 seed. 63rd ranked Strength of schedule, 16th in the RPI.

They are definitely benefitting from Florida, Stanford, Xavier, Marquette and Texas all losing so early in their conference tournaments, but that's a pretty weak schedule and RPI to get a #1 seed.

They're currently projected as a #3 seed right now. They could easily get a #2 with all the teams rated above them losing early in tournament play, but I don't think they will cut it for a #1.